Manon Fiorot vs Alexa Grasso: analysis & prediction

MAIN CARD · WOMEN'S FLYWEIGHT · 3 ROUNDSUFC Fight Night: Silva vs. Delgado
Manon Fiorot — Women's Flyweight fighter

Manon Fiorot

13W2L
Pressure Kickboxer
VS
Alexa Grasso — Women's Flyweight fighter

Alexa Grasso

17W5L1D
Counter Boxer

Twenty-six strikes a round against the best defence in the fight

Women's FlyweightDesert Diamond Arena, Glendale, ArizonaSeptember 12, 2026Standard 30ft Octagon

Fight overview

The fight in 30 seconds

Fiorot's round-by-round striking output stays above Grasso's across the first three rounds, supporting a plan built on sustained pressure and clean exits. Grasso needs to interrupt that rhythm with counters or force closer exchanges; historical volume alone does not determine who lands the more damaging shots.

Paths that change the fight

  • Manon FiorotFifteen minutes at her own tempo. Five more significant strikes per round than her opponent has ever averaged, without offering the front headlock or the back — she has zero submission attempts and one knockdown absorbed in 27 Octagon rounds because she keeps fights simple.
  • Alexa GrassoOne sequence. A failed Fiorot entry, a scramble, a neck — the exact shape of 4:34 of the fourth round at UFC 285. Every other route requires out-pointing a woman who lands 25.6 a round on a night Grasso has never had.
What limits this estimate · Analyst conviction: 4/10
  • Grasso blocks 59% of incoming strikes and has never been knocked down in 45 Octagon rounds — this fight is very unlikely to be stopped early.
  • Nine UFC submission attempts to Fiorot's zero, including a rear-naked choke that won a world title.

Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

Manon Fiorot

Freshness unverified
Model win probability
57%
Fair decimal odds
1.75
Reference quote-215 (BetOnline)

Quote verified:

Alexa Grasso

Freshness unverified
Model win probability
43%
Fair decimal odds
2.33
Reference quote+183 (BetOnline)

Quote verified:

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Sources and data limitations

Career-rate review: September 10, 2026. Alexa Grasso: Published career rates including the March 2026 Barber bout. Historical round coverage may be incomplete. Composite scores and forecasts remain editorial estimates; updating descriptive rates does not recalibrate the prediction.

Model methodology
Read the evidenceInspect prices and assumptions
01

The Frame

What this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it

The Analyst's Take

Fiorot's volume meets Grasso's counter striking and submission threat. Grasso returned with a first-round knockout of Maycee Barber in March 2026; her current career line is 4.11 significant strikes landed and 3.71 absorbed per minute, with 59% defense. The historical round charts cover an earlier sample and should not be read as her complete current record.

Manon Fiorot
Attribute
Alexa Grasso
36
Age
33
5'7"+2" Fiorot
Height
5'5"
65"
Reach
+1" Grasso66"
N/A
Leg Reach
N/A
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
No gym on file — Nice, France
Team
Lobo Gym MMA, Guadalajara
Jan 20, 2021
Octagon Debut
Nov 5, 2016
Oct 18, 2025 — 11 months out
Last Fight
May 10, 2025 — 16 months out
Karate base into pressure kickboxing volume
Fighting Style
Counter boxing, clinch, late-round neck hunting

Two inches of height to Fiorot, one inch of reach to Grasso — a trade that matters more than it reads. The Frenchwoman's frame is what lets her throw down at a retreating opponent and land 89.1% of her opening-round offence at distance, the highest distance share in this matchup. Grasso's inch is a boxer's inch, used off the back foot to time entries; 16% of her career significant strikes land in the clinch against Fiorot's 8%, so her preferred second option is the fence, not the outside. Neither woman has a published leg reach. The real separation is chronological in both directions: Fiorot is three years older but six years newer to the Octagon, with nine UFC bouts to Grasso's fourteen.

Venue Factor
Three rounds, not five — and that quietly removes Grasso's best room. Her title-winning submission of Valentina Shevchenko came at 4:34 of the fourth, her nine UFC submission attempts skew late, and her fourth-round output has historically dropped to 14.5 significant strikes as she shifts from volume to scrambles. In a fifteen-minute fight she has to find the neck inside the window where Fiorot is at her most productive — 25.6, 27.6 and 25.8 significant strikes across rounds one, two and three. Fifteen minutes suits the woman who is trying to win minutes.
02

The Fighters

Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage

Manon Fiorot throwing a right hand in the Octagon

Manon Fiorot

Pro Record
13-2-0
UFC Record
8-1 across nine bouts since January 2021
Streak
Won her last — first-round TKO of Jasmine Jasudavicius (1:14, Oct 18, 2025)
Finish Rate
Three of eight UFC wins by KO/TKO; no UFC submissions
Avg Fight Time
12:41
Chin · Barely tested — one knockdown absorbed in 27 UFC roundsSOS · ChampionshipPressure kickboxer / volume pace

Nine Octagon fights, eight wins, and the only woman to beat her is the greatest women's flyweight in the sport's history. Fiorot arrived in January 2021 and stopped Victoria Leonardo in the second, then Tabatha Ricci in the second, then out-pointed Mayra Bueno Silva, Jennifer Maia, Katlyn Cerminara and Rose Namajunas without losing a round anybody remembers. The Erin Blanchfield fight in March 2024 was the proof of concept — twenty-five minutes against the division's best grappler, won on volume — and it earned her the Shevchenko title shot at UFC 315, which she lost by unanimous decision. The answer was violence: Jasmine Jasudavicius, a top-five flyweight, stopped in 74 seconds in October 2025. She is ranked first in the statistical record's women's flyweight pool and third of 32 in striking accuracy.

Alexa Grasso fighting in the Octagon

Alexa Grasso

Pro Record
17-5-1 (16-5-1 through the earlier statistical sample)
UFC Record
9-5-1 across fifteen bouts since November 2016
Streak
One win — first-round KO of Maycee Barber (Mar 2026), after losses to Shevchenko (UFC 306) and Natalia Silva (UFC 315)
Finish Rate
Two of nine UFC wins by submission and one by knockout (Barber, Mar 2026)
Avg Fight Time
15:48
Chin · Iron — zero knockdowns absorbed in 45 UFC roundsSOS · ChampionshipCounter boxer / late submission threat

A ten-year Octagon career in two halves. She went 3-3 at strawweight between 2016 and 2019 — beating Heather Clark, Randa Markos and Karolina Kowalkiewicz, losing to Felice Herrig, Carla Esparza and, by first-round submission, Tatiana Suarez. The move to 125lbs turned her into a champion: four straight wins over Ji Yeon Kim, Joanne Wood, Maycee Barber and Viviane Araujo, and then the rear-naked choke that took the belt off Valentina Shevchenko at 4:34 of the fourth round at UFC 285. She drew the immediate rematch on a split card, lost the trilogy fight at UFC 306, and lost again to Natalia Silva at UFC 315. That is 8-5-1 in the Octagon across the 45 rounds the available statistical sample has scored, and not one knockdown absorbed; the first-round knockout of Maycee Barber in March 2026 — her first Octagon KO — takes her to 9-5-1 and falls after that snapshot. The résumé is the highest on this card; the momentum is the lowest.

Manon Fiorot
0 dealt · 0 absorbed
Knockdown Exchange
KD dealt vs absorbed
Alexa Grasso
0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Manon Fiorotsignature weapons

Pressure VolumeThree UFC stoppages — Leonardo R2, Ricci R2, Jasudavicius R1 (1:14) — built on 25.6 to 27.6 significant strikes landed per round
×3
The Second-Round SurgeR2 is her best round: 27.6 significant landed at 44% accuracy, 56 seconds of control and 0.13 knockdowns; two of her three finishes land there
×2

Alexa Grassosignature weapons

Rear-Naked ChokeValentina Shevchenko at 4:34 of R4 (UFC 285 title win) and Joanne Wood at 3:57 of R1 — both of her Octagon submissions
×2
Counter Boxing at DistanceSix UFC decision wins; 80-83% of her strikes land at distance and she blocks 59% of what comes back, 13th of 32
×6

Manon Fiorot

W
Jasmine Jasudavicius
KO/TKO

Opponent context: veteran

RR1 (1:14)
UFC FN: De Ridder vs. Allen — Oct 18, 2025
L
Valentina Shevchenko
Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: elite

RR5
UFC 315 (title bout) — May 10, 2025
W
Erin Blanchfield
Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: elite

RR5
UFC FN: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot
W
Rose Namajunas
Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: elite

RR3
UFC FN: Gane vs. Spivac
W
Katlyn Cerminara
Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: veteran

RR3
UFC 280
Pattern

Six wins and one loss in her last seven, and the loss was a title fight with Valentina Shevchenko. The pattern is unusually stable: she out-lands elite opposition for as long as the fight runs — twenty-five minutes against Erin Blanchfield, fifteen against Rose Namajunas — and when the opponent's defence is a beat slow she takes it early, as Jasudavicius found out in 74 seconds. Her only recorded Octagon defeat came against the one fighter in the division whose striking defence is better than her striking offence.

Alexa Grasso

W
Maycee Barber
KO/TKO

Opponent context: ranked

R1
UFC Fight Night — Mar 28, 2026
L
Natalia Silva
Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: elite

RR3
UFC 315 — May 10, 2025
L
Valentina Shevchenko
Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: elite

RR5
UFC 306 (title bout)
D
Valentina Shevchenko
Decision — Split (draw)

Opponent context: elite

RR5
UFC FN: Grasso vs. Shevchenko 2 (title bout)
W
Valentina Shevchenko
Submission — Rear-Naked Choke

Opponent context: elite

RR4 (4:34)
UFC 285 (title bout)
Pattern

Grasso stopped Maycee Barber at 2:42 of round one on March 28, 2026, after decision losses to Natalia Silva and Valentina Shevchenko. Her recent knockout adds a finishing route that the older round sample does not capture.

Manon Fiorot

Win Methods
Wins by Round

Alexa Grasso

Win Methods
Wins by Round
Critical Insight
UFC wins only: Fiorot has three knockouts and five decisions; Grasso has one knockout, two submissions and six decisions. Grasso's March 2026 finish of Barber is included. These historical method shares are distinct from the forecast below.

Common Opponents

OpponentManonAlexa
Valentina ShevchenkoL· UD5 (UFC 315, May 2025)W· SUB R4 (UFC 285) · D · SD5 · L · UD5 (UFC 306)
The only shared name, and it splits: Fiorot lost her one meeting; Grasso beat her, drew with her, then lost to her
Natalia Silva (style proxy)—(blueprint for Fiorot)L· UD3 (UFC 315, May 2025)
Pressure, angles and volume out-pointed Grasso over three rounds — the closest tape to what Fiorot intends to do
Erin Blanchfield (style proxy)W· UD5 (Mar 2024)—(blueprint for Grasso)
Fiorot's proof she can beat a submission specialist over championship distance without giving up the neck
03

The Numbers

Composites, division ranks and round-by-round evidence

Composite scores summarize selected statistics on a 0–100 scale. They are not win probabilities. Compare the underlying metrics, opponent quality and sample flags before interpreting a score difference as a matchup advantage.

Striking

SLpM 25% · StrAcc 30% · StrDef 30% · SApM 15%

0
Manonsmall sample
0
Alexa

Fiorot lands 5.66 per minute at 42% accuracy while absorbing 3.58 and blocking 66% — volume and defence both lean French. Grasso lands 4.11 at 41% and absorbs 3.71 with 59% defence. Output belongs to Fiorot; the gap is no longer an accuracy story.

Grappling

TD/15 25% · TDAcc 25% · TDDef 30% · Sub/15 20%

0
Manonsmall sample
0
Alexa

Neither is a wrestler. Fiorot attempts 1.05 takedowns per fifteen minutes at 29% against Grasso's 0.40 at 35%; Grasso answers with 0.67 submission attempts per fifteen against Fiorot's 0.0. The buried number is control absorbed — Grasso has spent 3,247 seconds underneath opponents across 45 UFC rounds, 72 per round, against Fiorot's 9.9 — and Fiorot's 87% takedown defence.

Technical

(Striking + Grappling) / 2

0.0
Manon
0
Alexa

A point and a half. This is the tightest technical pairing built on the Glendale card, and it is why conviction stops at four out of ten.

Cardio

Fight time · pace · R3/R1 output · champ rounds

0
Manon
0
Alexa

Grasso's average Octagon fight lasts 15:48 to Fiorot's 12:41 and she owns seven championship rounds to Fiorot's four. But direction beats duration: Fiorot's output rises in deep water to 30.0 significant strikes in both the fourth and the fifth, while Grasso's falls to 14.5 in the fourth.

Overall

(Technical + Cardio) / 2

0.0
Manon
0.0
Alexa

Two composite points and a 57-43 model line that sits right on top of them. The site's event model reads 58-42; the analysis holds at 57-43 and this page follows it.

MetricManonAlexa
Avg Fight Time12:4115:48
Pace TierElite volume — 5.66 SLpMModerate — 4.11 SLpM (14th/32)
R3/R1 Output101% (25.8 vs 25.6 sig)103% (21.6 vs 20.9 sig)
Slow Start %None — 25.6 sig in R1 across nine boutsNone — 20.9 sig in R1 across fourteen bouts
Champ Rounds4 rounds, 2 five-round bouts — 30.0 sig in both R4 and R5small sample7 rounds, 3 five-round bouts — output falls to 14.5 in R4
Layoff to Fight Night11 months (last: Oct 18, 2025)16 months (last: May 10, 2025)

Archetype Base Rate

Pressure Kickboxer 57%43% Counter Boxer

No archetype base-rate row for this pairing · No historical archetype win-rate is applied. The 57-43 lean is the editorial assessment's own hold against the site event model's 58-42, taken down a point on the strength of Grasso's championship experience and her late submission profile.

Manon FiorotAlexa Grasso

Women's Flyweight

· 32 fighters
StatManonManon rankDiv avgAlexa rankAlexa
SLpM5.66
4/32elite
~4.66—4.11
Str Acc42%
22/32
~46.3%—41%
Str Def66%
5/32elite
~55.5%—59%
SApM3.58
16/32
~4.08—3.71
KD Avg0.11
13/32
~0.32—0.13
Damage Ratio1.58———1.11
TD/151.05
19/32
~1.40—0.40
TD Acc29%
20/32
~36.2%—Not verified
TD Def87%
3/32elite
~65.9%—55%
Sub/150.00
28/32
~0.46—0.67
Control Absorbed / Round9.9s (27 rounds)———72.2s (45 rounds)
UFC Sub Attempts0 in 27 rounds———9 in 45 rounds
Avg Fight Time12:41———15:48
Statistical Verdict
On the published column Fiorot owns output, accuracy, knockdown average, takedown rate, takedown accuracy and takedown defence; Grasso owns striking defence and submission rate. On the recomputed column — every round either woman has fought in the Octagon — the gap widens rather than closes: Fiorot has allowed three takedowns from twenty-four attempts and 9.9 seconds of control per round, while Grasso has been held for 72.2 seconds a round across 45 rounds and has conceded 33 takedowns. Grasso's counter is the only column that has ever ended a title fight in this matchup: nine submission attempts to zero.

Significant Strikes Landed per Round

Control Time per Round (sec)

Manon Fiorot

  • She does not have a bad round: 25.6, 27.6 and 25.8 significant strikes landed across rounds one, two and three, from nine, eight and six bouts of evidence.
  • The second round is where she turns it over — 44% accuracy, 56 seconds of control and her only knockdown rate of note at 0.13.
  • Her target selection migrates downward as fights run: 22.6% body in the first, 29.7% by the third, with head share falling from 71.0% in the second to 57.4% in the third.

Alexa Grasso

  • Remarkable consistency and a low ceiling: 20.9, 20.6 and 21.6 significant strikes at 41-43% accuracy across fourteen, twelve and twelve rounds.
  • She is the most committed distance fighter of the two by preference but not by share — 80-83% at distance against Fiorot's 81-89% — and 12-18% of her offence comes in the clinch, more than double Fiorot's.
  • The leg kick is a real part of her game: 21.6% of her first-round strikes go to the leg against Fiorot's 17.4%, and it is the one target where she out-throws the Frenchwoman early.
Critical Insight
Put the two profiles side by side and the arithmetic is brutally simple: Fiorot lands roughly five more significant strikes in every round of the fight, in all three rounds, on samples of nine and fourteen bouts. Nothing in Grasso's round-by-round record suggests she raises her output to close that — her highest three-round figure is 21.6 and her career-best rounds look exactly like her career-average rounds. What her record does contain is nine submission attempts and 3,247 seconds spent underneath opponents, which is the same statistic read two ways: she is the more grapple-able of the two, and she is the one who finishes from there.

Strike targeting (available rounds)

Head hunting vs body work vs leg attack — the shape of the damage.

Striking range — distance, clinch and ground

ManonAlexa
85%Distance81%
10%Clinch15%
5%Ground4%

Approximate share of significant strikes by range in available rounds, weighted by strike volume. Incomplete splits are excluded. Debutants / fighters without Octagon samples show as N/A.

04

The Story of the Fight

Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath

Where the fight lives

Who owns each phase — and by how much
Open SpaceManon owns it

25.6-27.6 significant strikes per round with an 81-89% distance share, at 5.66 SLpM and 66% striking defence

Pocket / ExchangesAlexa owns it

59% striking defence (13th) against Fiorot's 66%, plus zero knockdowns absorbed in 45 UFC rounds

ClinchAlexa owns it

16% of Grasso's career significant strikes land in the clinch to Fiorot's 8%; her clinch share peaks at 17.5% in round one

GroundEven

Fiorot lands 9 of 31 UFC takedowns and concedes 9.9 control seconds per round to Grasso's 72.2 — but Grasso has nine submission attempts to Fiorot's zero

Path to Victory

Manon Fiorot

Fifteen minutes at her own tempo. Five more significant strikes per round than her opponent has ever averaged, without offering the front headlock or the back — she has zero submission attempts and one knockdown absorbed in 27 Octagon rounds because she keeps fights simple.

Why they win
01
Five extra strikes every round

25.6, 27.6 and 25.8 significant landed in rounds one to three against Grasso's 20.9, 20.6 and 21.6 — measured across nine bouts and fourteen respectively, not projected.

02
Elite volume, not accuracy

5.66 significant strikes per minute against Grasso's 4.11 — accuracy is nearly level at 42% to 41%, so the French edge is pace and 66% striking defence.

03
She is not the one who gets held down

Nine takedowns landed from thirty-one attempts, and only three conceded from twenty-four faced. Grasso has conceded thirty-three and spent 72.2 seconds per round underneath.

04
The rebound is a finish

Her answer to the Shevchenko loss was Jasmine Jasudavicius stopped in 74 seconds — a top-five flyweight erased inside one round in October 2025.

05
Output that climbs, not fades

Her deepest measured rounds are her biggest: 30.0 significant strikes in both the fourth and the fifth of her two championship-distance fights.

The gameplan
  1. 1
    Jab and teep from the height edge

    Two inches and 89.1% of her opening-round offence at distance. Grasso's counter boxing needs a target standing still; Fiorot's job is to make every exchange cost a step backward.

  2. 2
    Go to the body early, not late

    Her body share climbs from 22.6% in the first to 29.7% in the third. Against an opponent who has never been knocked down, the body is where a fifteen-minute fight actually gets won.

  3. 3
    Threaten the takedown, never finish it badly

    1.05 attempts per fifteen minutes is enough to freeze the counter, but Grasso has nine Octagon submission attempts. Level changes as feints, not as commitments.

  4. 4
    Own the second round

    27.6 significant landed at 44% with 56 seconds of control and 0.13 knockdowns — the round in which two of her three UFC stoppages arrived. If a finish comes, it comes here.

  5. 5
    Punish the layoff

    Grasso has not fought in sixteen months. Round one at 25.6 strikes a minute of pressure is the cruellest possible re-entry.

Path to Victory

Alexa Grasso

One sequence. A failed Fiorot entry, a scramble, a neck — the exact shape of 4:34 of the fourth round at UFC 285. Every other route requires out-pointing a woman who lands 25.6 a round on a night Grasso has never had.

Why they win
01
Still never been dropped

Zero knockdowns absorbed in 45 Octagon rounds — the durability edge — even if Fiorot now owns the higher published striking defence at 66% to 58%.

02
Nine submission attempts to zero

0.67 attempts per fifteen minutes, ninth in the division, including the rear-naked choke that took a world title off Valentina Shevchenko at 4:34 of the fourth.

03
The higher peak, and it is not close

A UFC champion who beat, drew with and lost to Shevchenko across three title fights. Fiorot's ceiling to date is a title challenge she lost.

04
The clinch is hers

16% of her career significant strikes land in the clinch to Fiorot's 8%, and her clinch share rises to 17.5% in the opening round — the one place the volume gap narrows.

05
Twice the Octagon mileage

Fourteen UFC bouts, 45 rounds and 15:48 average fight time against nine, 27 and 12:41. She has been in every kind of hard fight this sport produces.

The gameplan
  1. 1
    Counter over the pressure

    59% striking defence and a one-inch reach edge. The published plan is to make Fiorot pay for the step in, because out-throwing her is not on the table at 20.9 strikes a round.

  2. 2
    Get to the fence

    17.5% of her first-round offence lands in the clinch against Fiorot's 7.0%. Dirty boxing on the fence is the only phase where the volume differential collapses.

  3. 3
    Hunt the neck off failed entries

    Nine Octagon submission attempts, two finishes, and a title won at 4:34 of the fourth. Every Fiorot level change is her best chance of the night.

  4. 4
    Attack the lead leg

    21.6% of her first-round strikes go to the leg — her one target where she out-throws Fiorot. A compromised lead leg is what turns a pressure fighter into a stationary one.

  5. 5
    Steal the third

    Her output actually rises in round three to 21.6 while Fiorot's dips slightly to 25.8. In a three-round fight the last five minutes are the closest thing she has to championship rounds.

Danger Zone

How Manon Fiorot loses

  • She over-commits on a takedown entry against a fighter with nine Octagon submission attempts, and the fight ends the way UFC 285 ended.

  • Grasso's 59% striking defence turns a five-strike-per-round edge into a two-strike edge, and three close rounds go to the former champion on the judges' preference for the cleaner shot.

  • Eleven months out, at 36, she starts slowly for the first time in nine Octagon fights and hands away the round she has never lost — she averages 25.6 significant strikes in round one and has never needed a warm-up.

Danger Zone

How Alexa Grasso loses

  • She loses a 30-27 volume fight without ever being hurt — the Natalia Silva night again, with the same 21 strikes a round and the same result.

  • Sixteen months of inactivity meets a fighter who averages 27.6 significant strikes in the second round, and the accumulation produces the first stoppage loss of her career.

  • The three-round distance removes the fourth and fifth rounds where her submission attempts historically live, and the scramble she needs never arrives.

The fight's central axis

Five Strikes a Round, Every Round

Across nine Octagon bouts Manon Fiorot averages 25.6, 27.6 and 25.8 significant strikes landed in rounds one, two and three. Across fourteen, Alexa Grasso averages 20.9, 20.6 and 21.6. That is a five-strike gap in every round of a fifteen-minute fight, on two of the largest single-fighter samples in the division.

+5.3
Fiorot's average significant-strike edge per round
Why three rounds matters

The Round That Never Comes

Grasso's title-winning submission of Valentina Shevchenko landed at 4:34 of the fourth. Her nine Octagon submission attempts skew late and her fourth-round output drops to 14.5 significant strikes as she trades volume for scrambles. This bout is scheduled for three, which removes the window her best win came from.

4:34
Round four — where Grasso won a world title
The buried defensive number

Nobody Holds Fiorot Down

Recomputed across all 27 of her Octagon rounds, Fiorot has conceded three takedowns from twenty-four attempts — 87.5% defence — and 9.9 seconds of control per round. Grasso has conceded thirty-three from seventy-three and been held for 72.2 seconds per round across 45. The published table says 61% and 55%; the round data says the gap is far larger.

Why the knockout buckets are small

The Chin Neither Fighter Has Tested

Grasso has absorbed zero knockdowns in 45 Octagon rounds. Fiorot has absorbed one in 27 and dealt one, despite three TKO wins — her stoppages are accumulation, not single shots, at a 0.11 knockdown average against a divisional 0.32. Neither woman is likely to be starched; both are entirely capable of being worn down.

0
Knockdowns Grasso has absorbed in 45 UFC rounds
The scheduling variable

Twenty-Seven Months of Rust Between Them

Grasso last fought on March 28, 2026, stopping Barber in round one. The earlier claim that she had not won since March 2023 is outdated.

The Five-Round Clock

Manon Fiorot danger windowAlexa Grasso danger windowNeutral / contested
R1 · 0:00–5:00The pace storm

Fiorot averages 25.6 significant strikes in the opening round across nine bouts against Grasso's 20.9 across fourteen. Jasmine Jasudavicius did not survive 75 seconds of it in October 2025, and Grasso is five and a half months from her last cage walk.

Critical Insight
This is a fifteen-minute fight in which one woman's danger window is continuous and the other's has been cut off. Fiorot out-lands Grasso in every round the schedule contains; Grasso's single most valuable historical asset — a fourth-round submission — expires when the third round ends. Grasso does not need a slow start from Fiorot; she needs a mistake, and she needs it before the final horn.

Finish Threat by Round

Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.

05

The Verdict

One hundred simulated fights, the betting market, and our conviction

If you only read 3 things
1

Manon Fiorot lands 25.6, 27.6 and 25.8 significant strikes in rounds one to three across nine Octagon bouts. Alexa Grasso lands 20.9, 20.6 and 21.6 across fourteen. That five-strike-per-round gap, repeated three times, is the fight.

2

Grasso's live path is a neck, not a decision: nine UFC submission attempts to Fiorot's zero, and a title won by rear-naked choke at 4:34 of the fourth — a round this three-round bout never reaches.

3

Model: Fiorot 57% / Grasso 43%, conviction 4/10 — a genuine main-card lean rather than a fade, capped by a former champion's 59% striking defence and a clean zero in the knockdowns-absorbed column.

Model outcomes per 100 fights

Each square represents one percentage point of the model distribution, not an observed fight. This visualization does not measure model accuracy or reduce uncertainty in the inputs.

Fiorot Decision — 32%Fiorot KO/TKO — 18%Fiorot Submission — 7%Grasso Decision — 24%Grasso Submission — 13%Grasso KO/TKO — 6%

Each square = 1 simulated fight. Manon Fiorot gold · Alexa Grasso orange · full color = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

The volume differential

Five more significant strikes per round, in all three rounds, from nine bouts against fourteen. It is why Fiorot's decision bucket (32 of 100) is the single largest outcome on the page.

Grasso's defensive filter

59% striking defence and zero knockdowns absorbed in 45 Octagon rounds. It does not close the gap, but it converts a blowout into a 29-28 argument — hence a 24-count decision bucket for the underdog.

The submission lottery

Nine Octagon submission attempts to zero, and a world title won by rear-naked choke. Thirteen of Grasso's 43 win-shares are submissions, the largest method-specific dog bucket on this card.

Three rounds, not five

Grasso's best win came at 4:34 of the fourth and her late output profile is built for championship distance. Removing rounds four and five removes her most productive historical territory.

Layoff and age

Grasso is 33 and five and a half months inactive with one win in her last four; Fiorot is 36 and eleven months out, coming off a 74-second finish of a top-five flyweight.

Fight Scripts

0%
of simulations

The Pace Tax

Fiorot jabs, teeps and body-kicks her way to a 30-27 card, out-landing Grasso by roughly fifteen significant strikes across the fight. No knockdowns, no scares, no doubt — the modal outcome and the most likely single result on the page.

Scripted outcomes for Manon Fiorot vs Alexa Grasso — how each version of this fight unfolds.

Manon Fiorot win probability
0%
18%
32%
7%
KO/TKODECSUB

  • Three Octagon TKOs — Leonardo R2, Ricci R2, Jasudavicius R1 in 74 seconds — but a 0.11 knockdown average against a divisional 0.32. These are accumulation stoppages against a woman who has never been knocked down, which is why the bucket is 18 and not 30.

  • The largest bucket on the page. Five more significant strikes per round for fifteen minutes is exactly how her wins over Blanchfield, Namajunas, Cerminara, Maia and Bueno Silva were scored.

  • Seven points, and they are scramble outcomes rather than a hunted path — she has zero submission attempts in 27 Octagon rounds and a 0.0 Sub/15 rate line.

Alexa Grasso win probability
0%
6%
24%
13%
KO/TKODECSUB

  • Grasso knocked out Barber in March 2026. The retained six-point knockout forecast is an editorial estimate, not her historical knockout frequency.

  • Twenty-four points off 59% striking defence and 45 rounds of championship experience. She has to win two of three on cleaner work while conceding roughly five landed strikes a round, which is possible and is not likely.

  • Thirteen points — the largest method-specific underdog bucket on the card. Nine Octagon submission attempts, two finishes, and a world title taken by rear-naked choke. Every Fiorot level change is a coin she gets to flip.

Projected Scorecards

How the model scores each round
R1
Manon
R2
Manon
R3
Even
30-27 Fiorot
The volume differential runs unopposed for fifteen minutes
The most likely card in a fight that reaches them
29-28 Fiorot
Grasso takes the third on counters and clinch work
The competitive version, and common
29-28 Grasso
Two close rounds go to the cleaner shot and the former champion
Her realistic path to the cards, worth 24 of her 43 win-shares

Model and price

Manon Fiorot

Freshness unverified
Model win probability
57%
Fair decimal odds
1.75
Reference quote-215 (BetOnline)
Estimated EV
-16.5%
Edge vs no-vig market
-8.9 pp

Quote verified:

Alexa Grasso

Freshness unverified
Model win probability
43%
Fair decimal odds
2.33
Reference quote+183 (BetOnline)
Estimated EV
+21.7%
Edge vs no-vig market
+8.9 pp

Quote verified:

EV uses the displayed price: probability × decimal odds − 1. Edge is a percentage-point difference from a proportionally de-vigged, same-book pair. A dash means that comparison is unavailable.

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Fair odds are the break-even price under this estimate, not a recommended entry price. Model uncertainty can erase a small edge.

What price would change the calculation? · Manon Fiorot

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Required decimal price: 1.76 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

What price would change the calculation? · Alexa Grasso

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Required decimal price: 2.33 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

Props: model vs recorded price (0)

No prop prices recorded in this analysis.

Original analyst price notes

These notes describe the original analysis and may refer to older prices.

The retained forecast favors Fiorot by decision, but a betting edge requires a current market price and a probability assessment that accounts for Grasso’s March 2026 knockout. No method bet is established as value by historical frequency alone.

Conviction
0
4/10

Editorial confidence in the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

A real lean rather than a fade. Fiorot out-lands Grasso by roughly five significant strikes in every round either woman has ever fought, and the three-round distance strips the underdog of the territory her best win came from — but a former champion with 59% striking defence, zero knockdowns absorbed in 45 rounds and nine submission attempts is not a four-point favourite's usual opponent. Lean: Manon Fiorot.

What backs the lean

  • 25.6, 27.6 and 25.8 significant strikes per round against 20.9, 20.6 and 21.6 — a five-strike edge in all three rounds.

  • 5.66 SLpM and 66% striking defence against Grasso's 4.11 and 59% — volume and defence to Fiorot, accuracy nearly level.

  • Three takedowns conceded from twenty-four faced and 9.9 control seconds per round, against Grasso's thirty-three conceded and 72.2.

  • Coming off a 74-second stoppage of a top-five flyweight; Grasso has one win in her last four and is five and a half months inactive.

What limits it

  • Grasso blocks 59% of incoming strikes and has never been knocked down in 45 Octagon rounds — this fight is very unlikely to be stopped early.

  • Nine UFC submission attempts to Fiorot's zero, including a rear-naked choke that won a world title.

  • Fiorot's published defensive numbers and her round-by-round recomputation disagree sharply, which means the true striking-defence gap is uncertain in both directions.

  • Fiorot is 36 and eleven months out herself, and her only Octagon loss came the last time she faced a woman with elite defensive striking.

Final Assessment

This is the most evenly matched main-card bout the model has priced on this card and it still lands on the same side every time. Manon Fiorot has landed more significant strikes than her opponent in effectively every round she has fought in the Octagon, and the margin — 25.6 to 20.9 in the first, 27.6 to 20.6 in the second, 25.8 to 21.6 in the third — is not a rounding artefact of two small samples. It is nine bouts against fourteen, 27 rounds against 45, and it points the same way each time.

What keeps Alexa Grasso at 43% is not her striking; it is the fact that she is the only woman in this fight who has ever finished a champion. Nine Octagon submission attempts to Fiorot's zero, a rear-naked choke on Valentina Shevchenko at 4:34 of the fourth, and 59% striking defence with a clean zero in the knockdowns-absorbed column across 45 rounds. She does not get blown out. She gets out-worked — and occasionally she finds a neck while it is happening.

The honest read: take Fiorot to win minutes rather than to win early, and expect a card. The scheduling detail that decides the price is that this is fifteen minutes, not twenty-five — the round in which Grasso became a world champion is not on the clock. If the books stretch the favourite past -175, the underdog's submission side is where the model disagrees most sharply.

Back to UFC Fight Night: Silva vs. Delgado Fight Card
Skip to main content
Use Tab to navigate through elements, Enter to activate buttons and links.