Two belts, one night in Abu Dhabi. Etihad Arena hosts a double-title card: Alexander Volkanovski (28-4) defends the featherweight crown against undefeated Movsar Evloev (20-0), and Petr Yan meets Merab Dvalishvili in a trilogy decider at bantamweight. Model leans: Volkanovski 54% and Yan 60%. Live on Paramount+ at 10:00 AM ET / 6:00 PM local.
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A double-title card with a real stylistic argument at the top: Alexander Volkanovski (28-4) and the division's best fifth round against Movsar Evloev (20-0) and 4.78 takedowns per 15. Plus the Yan vs. Dvalishvili III trilogy decider, series split 1-1. Model leans: Volkanovski 54%, Yan 60%.
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Main event
Featherweight · 5 rounds
Market differences are not a ranking of best bets. Conviction is editorial; a close matchup does not automatically mean poor data.
Fights shown: 15/15 · Analyses available: 0/15
Matchup preview. Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.
View fight preview
Model estimate
Preview
Matchup preview. Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.
View fight previewMatchup preview. Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.
View fight previewMatchup preview. Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.
View fight previewMatchup preview. Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.
View fight preview
Model estimate
Preview
Matchup preview. Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.
View fight previewMatchup preview. Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.
View fight preview
Model estimate
Preview
Matchup preview. Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.
View fight previewMatchup preview. Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.
View fight previewMatchup preview. Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.
View fight previewMatchup preview. Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.
View fight previewMatchup preview. Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.
View fight previewMatchup preview. Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.
View fight previewMatchup preview. Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.
View fight previewDeep Dive
The full story behind UFC 333 — the double-title narrative, the card spotlights, the questions everyone asks, and how the model reads a striker-versus-grappler title fight.
The Story
UFC 333 is a double-title card in Abu Dhabi with a genuine stylistic argument at the top. Alexander "The Great" Volkanovski (28-4, age 38) defends the featherweight belt against Movsar Evloev (20-0, UFC 10-0) — championship-round craft, 36.0 significant strikes at 62.7% accuracy in Round 5, against the most avoided unbeaten record in the division: 4.78 takedowns per 15 minutes, roughly three times the featherweight baseline, and zero UFC finishes in ten Octagon wins. The co-main closes a trilogy: Petr Yan (20-5) defends the bantamweight title against Merab Dvalishvili (21-5), the series split 1-1 after Yan stuffed 27 of 29 takedowns in their last meeting. And Etihad Arena is the same building where Islam Makhachev knocked Volkanovski out at UFC 294 on eleven days' notice — the emotional spine of the return.
MMA Analytics leans Volkanovski a narrow 54% — capped by age 38 and an Average chin tier with three career knockout losses — and Yan ~60% on the strength of a 60.4%-to-35.0% accuracy gap. The undercard is unusually deep: Alexander Volkov vs. Rizvan Kuniev at heavyweight, Aaron Pico vs. Losene Keita, Dominick Reyes vs. Azamat Murzakanov, and Grant Dawson vs. Nurullo Aliev. All fourteen active bouts have published analysis. Santos vs. Oki, Lucindo vs. Caliari and Gugnon vs. Steele have numerical editorial assessments, including method probabilities and uncertainty. Odds appear only where available.
Main Event — Featherweight Title
01Volkanovski vs. Evloev
The division's best fifth round (36.0 strikes at 62.7% accuracy) meets 4.78 takedowns per 15 — roughly triple the baseline, zero UFC finishes. ~54% Volkanovski, capped by age 38 and an Average chin.
Full breakdown
Co-Main — Bantamweight Title
02Yan vs. Dvalishvili 3
Series 1-1. Yan (20-5) stuffed 27 of 29 takedowns and owned a 60.4%-to-35.0% accuracy gap in their last meeting — the model leans ~60% Yan over Dvalishvili (21-5).
Main Card — Heavyweight
03Volkov vs. Kuniev
Volkov (40-11) owns 19 UFC bouts of range and accuracy against a three-fight newcomer (15-3-1) — ~58% Volkov, with the three-round limit removing his only measured structural flaw.
Full breakdown
Card Spotlight
04Pico vs. Keita & Reyes vs. Murzakanov
Allen withdrew (injury); Aaron Pico (14-5) now faces Losene Keita (17-2) and is the ~57% side on takedown volume. Murzakanov (16-1) is the ~56% side over Reyes (16-5): the harder puncher with the better defensive line.
Full breakdown
UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev is a numbered UFC event on Saturday, October 24, 2026 at Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. The main event is a UFC Featherweight Championship bout between two-time champion Alexander "The Great" Volkanovski (28-4, age 38) and undefeated challenger Movsar Evloev (20-0, UFC 10-0). Evloev scores 4.78 takedowns per 15 minutes — roughly three times the featherweight baseline — but has never finished a UFC opponent; all ten of his Octagon wins came by decision. Volkanovski owns the division's best championship-round profile: 36.0 significant strikes at 62.7% accuracy in Round 5. The co-main is a second title fight, Petr Yan vs. Merab Dvalishvili III for the bantamweight belt with the series split 1-1. MMA Analytics leans Volkanovski 54% and Yan ~60%. The card streams on Paramount+ at 10:00 AM ET / 6:00 PM local.
UFC 333 streams live from Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates on Saturday, October 24, 2026, with the main card beginning at 10:00 AM ET on Paramount+. Local Abu Dhabi time is 6:00 PM Gulf Standard Time. That is 7:00 AM PT, 3:00 PM BST in the United Kingdom and Ireland, and 4:00 PM CEST in Central Europe. Prelims begin earlier the same day, also on Paramount+. All listed times remain subject to broadcast changes.
14 active bouts. Main card: Alexander Volkanovski vs. Movsar Evloev (featherweight, 5 rounds); Petr Yan vs. Merab Dvalishvili (bantamweight, 5 rounds); Lone'er Kavanagh vs. Ramazan Temirov (flyweight, 3 rounds); Alexander Volkov vs. Rizvan Kuniev (heavyweight, 3 rounds); Aaron Pico vs. Losene Keita (featherweight, 3 rounds). Prelims: Dominick Reyes vs. Azamat Murzakanov (light heavyweight); Abus Magomedov vs. Cam Rowston (middleweight); Nikita Krylov vs. Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev (light heavyweight); Grant Dawson vs. Nurullo Aliev (lightweight); Jacob Malkoun vs. Abubakar Vagaev (middleweight); Colby Thicknesse vs. Asaf Chopurov (bantamweight); Daniel Santos vs. Bolaji Oki (featherweight); Iasmin Lucindo vs. Nicolle Caliari (women's strawweight); Noah Gugnon vs. Kody Steele (lightweight). Cancelled: Arnold Allen vs. Aaron Pico — Allen injury.
MMA Analytics currently favors Alexander Volkanovski at approximately 54% win probability versus Movsar Evloev at 46% for the UFC 333 featherweight title fight at Etihad Arena. The champion's case is the best fifth round in featherweight history by the numbers: 36.0 significant strikes at 62.7% accuracy in Round 5, his best round on both counts. The challenger's case is a wrestling volume the division has never solved: 4.78 takedowns per 15 minutes, roughly three times the featherweight baseline — though Evloev has zero UFC finishes, with all ten Octagon wins by decision. Conviction is capped by Volkanovski's age (38) and an Average chin tier carrying three career knockout losses, including a short-notice KO by Islam Makhachev in this same building at UFC 294. On the same card, Petr Yan is projected near 60% over Merab Dvalishvili in their trilogy, built on 27 of 29 takedowns stuffed in their last meeting. Full fight pages compare these model probabilities to BetOnline odds.
Yes — both title fights are official. Alexander Volkanovski vs. Movsar Evloev headlines for the UFC Featherweight Championship, and Petr Yan vs. Merab Dvalishvili III is official for the UFC Bantamweight Championship as the co-main event at Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi. The full card streams on Paramount+; the bout order above reflects the official billing.
UFC experience describes the size of the available sample, not the chance of winning. A short UFC record leaves more uncertainty about how a fighter performs against different styles. Opponent quality, recent changes and missing statistics also matter; five bouts alone do not establish that a prediction is well calibrated.
Limited UFC sample
<3 UFC Bouts
Fewer than three UFC fights. Analysis leans more heavily on pre-UFC performance patterns and fighting style.
Developing UFC sample
3-4 UFC Bouts
Some UFC evidence is available, but a few matchups can strongly influence the averages. Check opponent quality and the limitations in each analysis.
Established UFC sample
5+ UFC Bouts
More UFC observations are available. This does not guarantee predictive accuracy; changes in opposition, injuries and style can still limit the estimate.
Note: All fights receive thorough analysis regardless of UFC experience levels. Analyst conviction is an editorial assessment, not a measured probability or statistical confidence interval.
Yellow marks our forecast favorite. The comparison shows our win estimate against the probability implied by each quote. Gap is in percentage points (pp), includes bookmaker margin, and is not expected return.
| Fight | Fighter A | Win estimate A | Market / implied A | Fighter B | Win estimate B | Market / implied B | Model / market & our read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volkanovski vs Evloev🟢 | Alexander Volkanovski | — | -103 (BetOnline)50.7% implied | Movsar Evloev | — | -113 (BetOnline)53.1% implied | Matchup preview Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page. |
| Yan vs Dvalishvili🟢 | Petr Yan | — | -175 (BetOnline)63.6% implied | Merab Dvalishvili | — | +149 (BetOnline)40.2% implied | Matchup preview Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page. |
| Kavanagh vs Temirov🟡 | Lone'er Kavanagh | — | —— | Ramazan Temirov | — | —— | Matchup preview Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page. |
| Volkov vs Kuniev🟡 | Alexander Volkov | — | —— | Rizvan Kuniev | — | —— | Matchup preview Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page. |
| Reyes vs Murzakanov🟢 | Dominick Reyes | — | —— | Azamat Murzakanov | — | —— | Matchup preview Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page. |
| Magomedov vs Rowston🟡 | Abus Magomedov | — | —— | Cam Rowston | — | —— | Matchup preview Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page. |
| Krylov vs Yakhyaev🟡 | Nikita Krylov | — | —— | Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev | — | —— | Matchup preview Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page. |
| Dawson vs Aliev🟡 | Grant Dawson | — | —— | Nurullo Aliev | — | —— | Matchup preview Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page. |
