Aaron Pico vs Losene Keita – UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev Fight Analytics & Prediction

MAIN CARD · FEATHERWEIGHT · 3 ROUNDSUFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev

Aaron Pico

14W5L

Wrestling Pressure

Losene Keita

“Black Panther”

17W2L

Defensive Striker

Wrestling volume vs. early power before entries stick

FeatherweightEtihad Arena, Abu Dhabi, United Arab EmiratesOctober 24, 2026Standard 30ft Octagon

Fight overview

The fight in 30 seconds

Pico's blueprint is the Patricio Pitbull win: wrestling entries and steady volume that grew into a unanimous decision. The danger is the Lerone Murphy night, when a spinning back elbow ended his debut inside the first round. Keita's counters and knockdown power live in that same opening window, so every entry has to arrive behind strikes, with his head up and his hands high.

Paths that change the fight

Aaron PicoConvert phase repeatedly for fifteen minutes — takedowns and safe top minutes, as against Pitbull, without walking straight into counters on the way in.
Losene KeitaDeny phase or make the first exchange the last — long counters from the outside before wrestling entries accumulate.

What limits this estimate · Analyst conviction: 4/10

Only two UFC fights each — the rates can still swing, especially takedown defence.
Murphy's first-round knockout and 45% striking defence — Keita's 28-point knockout bucket is live.

Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

Aaron Pico

Insufficient price data

Model win probability: 57%
Fair odds: -133

Reference quote: —
Fair decimal odds: 1.75

Losene Keita

Insufficient price data

Model win probability: 43%
Fair odds: +133

Reference quote: —
Fair decimal odds: 2.33

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Sources and data limitations

Career statistics and fight results through September 2026. Composite scores, probabilities and fair prices are MMA Analytics model outputs.

Model methodology

Read the evidence Inspect prices and assumptions

The Frame

What this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it

The Analyst's Take

Both men are 1-1 in the UFC and coming off their best night there: Aaron Pico outpointed Patricio Pitbull, and Losene Keita knocked out Muhammad Naimov. Pico is an elite amateur wrestler who punches his way into entries; Keita is a former Oktagon champion who counters from range and has never been stopped by strikes. Keita's only UFC loss came when an opponent out-worked him over the full distance, precisely the fight Pico's wrestling is built to create. The swing factor is the mat, where Keita has yet to face a sustained wrestling attack in the UFC.

Aaron Pico

Attribute

Losene Keita

Age

Sep 23, 1996 vs Dec 30, 199728

5' 8"

Height

+1" Keita5' 9"

70.5"

Reach

+1" Keita71.5"

—

Leg Reach

42.5"

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

14-5-0

Pro Record

17-2-0

1-1

UFC Record

1-1

Wrestling pressure, entries

Fighting Style

Long-range counter striker

Keita is an inch taller and an inch longer in reach, a small frame edge at 145 pounds. Finish identity diverges more: nine of Pico's fourteen wins are knockouts, but three of his five losses are knockouts from strikes (Henry Corrales, Ádám Borics, Lerone Murphy). Eleven of Keita's seventeen wins are knockouts, ten of them inside two rounds, and he has never been stopped by strikes — his only stoppage loss was a leg injury against Mate Sanikidze in 2023.

Venue Factor
Standard 30-foot Octagon in Abu Dhabi — room for Keita to circle and counter, and more ground for Pico to cover on his entries. Three rounds favour the fighter who can bank safe minutes if the early knockout window closes; Pico's unanimous decision over Pitbull at UFC 327 is the template for that route.

The Fighters

Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage

Aaron Pico

Pro Record

14-5-0

UFC Record

1-1 — W UD Pitbull (UFC 327) · L KO R1 Murphy (UFC 319)

Streak

W1 — unanimous decision over Patricio Pitbull (Apr 11, 2026)

Finish Rate

79% of wins by finish (9 KO/TKO, 2 submissions in 14 wins); 3 decisions

Avg Fight Time

9:11 (UFC)

Chin · VulnerableSOS · Rising UFCWrestling pressure

The UFC ledger is 1-1 but the identity is stable: an elite amateur wrestler who punches his way into entries. The Murphy loss — a spinning back elbow at 3:21 of the first round — is the counter-strike vulnerability, and it rhymes with earlier knockout losses to Henry Corrales and Ádám Borics. The Pitbull win is the three-round proof: he landed 100 significant strikes to 49 and took the veteran down six times over fifteen minutes.

Losene Keita

Pro Record

17-2-0

UFC Record

1-1 — W KO R1 Naimov (Sep 2026) · L SD Wood (Mar 2026)

Streak

W1 — first-round knockout of Muhammad Naimov (Sep 5, 2026)

Finish Rate

65% KO/TKO (11 of 17 wins); 6 decisions, no submissions

Avg Fight Time

8:57 (UFC)

Chin · DurableSOS · Regional-to-UFC transitionLong-range counter striker

A former two-division Oktagon champion who arrived with a knockout-heavy record and has split his two UFC fights. Against Wood he stayed at range for fifteen minutes, never grappled and lost a split decision as Wood's kicks and late volume took over; in Paris he dropped Naimov twice and finished him at 2:54. He has never been stopped by strikes, but he has also never been asked to defend a sustained wrestling attack in the UFC.

Aaron Pico

0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Knockdown Exchange

Knockdowns dealt vs absorbed.

Losene Keita

0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Aaron Picosignature weapons

Punching PowerNine KO/TKO wins with punches, six in the first round — Shane Kruchten fell to a body shot in 37 seconds

×9

ChokesRear-naked choke of Chris Hatley in round one and an anaconda choke of Aiden Lee in round three

×2

Losene Keitasignature weapons

Knockout PunchesTen punch stoppages, seven in the first round — Naimov was dropped twice before the finish at 2:54

×10

ElbowsElbow-and-punch stoppage of Ronald Paradeiser in round two to win the Oktagon lightweight title

×1

Aaron Pico

Patricio Pitbull

Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: veteran

R3 (5:00)

UFC 327 — Apr 11, 2026

Lerone Murphy

KO — Spinning back elbow

Opponent context: ranked

R1 (3:21)

UFC 319 — Aug 16, 2025

Henry Corrales

TKO — Punches

Opponent context: ufc adjacent

R1 (4:53)

PFL vs. Bellator — Feb 24, 2024 (lightweight)

Pedro Carvalho

TKO — Punches

Opponent context: ufc adjacent

R1 (3:05)

Bellator 299 — Sep 23, 2023

James Gonzalez

Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: prospect

R3 (5:00)

Bellator 295 — Apr 22, 2023

Pattern

The two UFC trips tell the story in reverse order: fifteen minutes of wrestling and volume against Pitbull, after a Murphy spinning back elbow ended his debut at 3:21 of the first. Before the UFC he had won three straight, two of them first-round stoppages. The question in the Octagon is whether he can enter without donating his chin.

Losene Keita

Muhammad Naimov

KO — Punch

Opponent context: ufc

R1 (2:54)

UFC Fight Night Paris — Sep 5, 2026

Nathaniel Wood

Decision — Split

Opponent context: veteran

R3 (5:00)

UFC Fight Night London — Mar 21, 2026

Ronald Paradeiser

TKO — Elbow and punches

Opponent context: ufc adjacent

R2 (1:02)

Oktagon 65 — Dec 29, 2024 (lightweight title)

Mateusz Legierski

Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: ufc adjacent

R3 (5:00)

Oktagon 61 — Sep 21, 2024

Predrag Bogdanović

TKO — Punch to the body

Opponent context: prospect

R2 (4:15)

Oktagon 59 — Jul 20, 2024

Pattern

Knockout equity is real — Naimov went down twice and out inside three minutes — but Wood proved he can lose a split without being finished when the fight stays at range and technical. He has not attempted a UFC takedown, and Wood tried only one, so every minute on the mat against Pico is new territory.

Aaron Pico

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Losene Keita

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Critical Insight
Pico's career line is 9 KO, 2 submissions and 3 decisions, with seven first-round finishes — and the Pitbull decision shows he can win when the finish does not come. Keita's 11 knockouts and 6 decisions with no submissions skew just as early: seven first-round stoppages and ten of eleven knockouts inside two rounds. His only late finish came in the fourth round of a five-round Oktagon title fight.

Opposition strength (no shared opponents)

Without a reliable shared-opponent table, compare who each fighter has been tested against using SOS tier, UFC sample size, and recent elite-tier form — not raw records alone.

Factor	Aaron	Losene
Strength of schedule (SOS tier)	Rising UFC — Ranked No. 11 at featherweight; Pitbull at UFC 327 is the headline win, Murphy's first-round knockout the headline loss; the Bellator and PFL run before that was finish-heavy	Regional-to-UFC transition — Former Oktagon featherweight and lightweight champion; split loss to UFC veteran Nathaniel Wood, then a first-round knockout of Muhammad Naimov in Paris
UFC sample	1-1 — W UD Pitbull (UFC 327) · L KO R1 Murphy (UFC 319)	1-1 — W KO R1 Naimov (Sep 2026) · L SD Wood (Mar 2026)
Recent ranked / elite touches (last 5)	0 elite · 1 veteran tier	0 elite · 1 veteran tier
Form-window tier points tied in the last-five sample — compare SOS notes and methods, not volume alone.
Last three opponents	Patricio Pitbull, Lerone Murphy, Henry Corrales	Muhammad Naimov, Nathaniel Wood, Ronald Paradeiser

The Numbers

Composites, division ranks and round-by-round evidence

Composite scores summarize selected statistics on a 0–100 scale. They are not win probabilities. Compare the underlying metrics, opponent quality and UFC experience before interpreting a score difference as a matchup advantage.

Striking

SLpM 25% · StrAcc 30% · StrDef 30% · SApM 15%

Aaronfew UFC fights

Losenefew UFC fights

Pico owns volume (6.16 vs 3.91 landed per minute), accuracy (54% vs 47%) and absorption (3.11 vs 3.97). Keita owns defence (65% vs 45%) and the knockdowns — two dealt, none absorbed.

Grappling

TD/15 25% · TDAcc 25% · TDDef 30% · Sub/15 20%

Aaronfew UFC fights

Losenefew UFC fights

Pico's takedown rate is the fight's dominant grappling input, but no UFC opponent has tried to take him down. Keita has never shot a UFC takedown and has defended the only one tried on him. Neither has attempted a UFC submission.

Technical

(Striking + Grappling) / 2

0.0

Aaronfew UFC fights

Losenefew UFC fights

Essentially even on composites — the fork is phase, not aggregate skill score.

Metric	Aaron	Losene
Avg Fight TimeAvg Fight TimeAverage fight duration — long averages mark proven cardio and decision-ready grinders.	9:11 (2 UFC bouts)few UFC fights	8:57 (2 UFC bouts)few UFC fights
Pace Tier	6.16 landed/min — high volumefew UFC fights	3.91 landed/min — selectivefew UFC fights
Round 1 Profile	17.5 landed · 41% accuracyfew UFC fights	14.5 landed · 52% accuracy · 2 KDfew UFC fights
R1 → R3 Output	22 → 29 landed (Pitbull)few UFC fights	11 → 18 landed (Wood)few UFC fights
Control Time	5:26 across 4 UFC roundsfew UFC fights	0:20 across 4 UFC roundsfew UFC fights

Archetype Base Rate

Wrestling Pressure 57%43% Long-Range Counter Striker

Model lean — no archetype prior · The 57-43 line is the model's matchup lean rather than an archetype prior — repeatable wrestling volume over three rounds, capped by Keita's first-round knockout path and two UFC bouts apiece.

Aaron PicoLosene Keita

Featherweight

· 47 fighters

Rank bars use the recorded division cohort. Where a rank is unavailable, the comparison shows the difference from the published division average; the white marker denotes equality. Percentage differences are percentage points (pp). Higher is not always better: fewer strikes absorbed is preferable. Missing benchmarks are not estimated.

Stat	Aaron	Aaron comparison	Div avg	Losene comparison	Losene
SLpMSLpMSignificant Strikes Landed per Minute — offensive striking volume. Higher = busier striker.	6.16	+1.59 vs avgfew UFC fights	4.57	-0.66 vs avgfew UFC fights	3.91
Str AccStr AccStriking Accuracy — share of significant strikes thrown that land. Higher = more precise.	54%	+4.80 pp vs avgfew UFC fights	49.2%	-2.20 pp vs avgfew UFC fights	47%
Str DefStr DefStriking Defense — share of opponents' significant strikes that do NOT land. Higher = harder to hit.	45%	-9.00 pp vs avgfew UFC fights	54%	+11.00 pp vs avgfew UFC fights	65%
SApMSApMSignificant Strikes Absorbed per Minute — how much a fighter gets hit. Lower = better.	3.11	-0.97 vs avgfew UFC fights	4.08	-0.11 vs avgfew UFC fights	3.97
Damage RatioDamage RatioSignificant strikes landed divided by significant strikes absorbed. Above 1 means more landed than absorbed; compare with the division average shown in this table. Strike counts do not measure damage severity.	1.98	+0.79 vs avgfew UFC fights	1.19	-0.20 vs avgfew UFC fights	0.99
KD/15	0.00	-0.44 vs avgfew UFC fights	0.44	+1.24 vs avgfew UFC fights	1.68
TD/15TD/15Takedowns Landed per 15 minutes — wrestling pressure / takedown engine.	6.54	+4.96 vs avgfew UFC fights	1.58	-1.58 vs avgfew UFC fights	0.00
TD Acc	50%	Not availablefew UFC fights	—	Not availablefew UFC fights	—
TD DefTD DefTakedown Defense — share of opponents' takedown attempts stuffed.	—	Not availablefew UFC fights	—	Not availablefew UFC fights	100%
Sub/15Sub/15Submission Attempts per 15 minutes — how actively a fighter hunts the finish on the mat.	0.00	-0.52 vs avgfew UFC fights	0.52	-0.52 vs avgfew UFC fights	0.00
Avg Fight TimeAvg Fight TimeAverage fight duration — long averages mark proven cardio and decision-ready grinders.	9:11 (UFC)	Not available	—	Not available	8:57 (UFC)

Statistical Verdict
Pico owns the phase-changing inputs — a takedown rate about four times the featherweight average, higher volume and lower absorption — while Keita owns the standing defence, the reach and the knockdowns. The fight is decided by whether Pico's entries convert before Keita's counters land.

Significant Strikes Landed per Round

⚠ R2, R3: single-fight sample for Aaron Pico

⚠ R2, R3: single-fight sample for Losene Keita

Control Time per Round (sec)

Aaron Pico

The first round blends two very different nights: the Murphy loss, which ended at 3:21 after Pico had landed two takedowns, and a cautious Pitbull opener at 39% accuracy. Rounds two and three come from the Pitbull fight alone.
His best UFC round was the second against Pitbull — 49 significant strikes at 64%, most of them to the head, with two more takedowns.
Control peaked in the third against Pitbull at 1:57, with three of five takedowns landed — the pattern the model expects if the fight goes long.

Losene Keita

Round one blends the Wood opener with the Naimov finish, where two knockdowns and eight ground strikes came in under three minutes — all of his UFC ground work.
Rounds two and three come only from the Wood fight: 23 landed at 55% in the second, then 18 at 35% in the third as Wood closed with his busiest round.
Outside the Naimov finish every significant strike he has landed in the UFC came at distance; he has not landed a clinch strike or attempted a takedown.

Critical Insight
Both men have two UFC fights, so these shapes come from a handful of specific rounds. Pico's Pitbull fight built from a patient first round into his best volume and his most control late; Keita's damage has come early — both knockdowns inside the first round — and his accuracy faded in the third against Wood. If Pico gets through the opening without a Murphy replay, the clock favours accumulation.

Strike targeting

Aaron

76%

14%

10%

Head

76%

Body

14%

Legs

10%

Losene

75%

21%

Head

75%

Body

21%

Legs

Head hunting vs body work vs leg attack — the shape of the damage.

Striking range — distance, clinch and ground

AaronLosene

86%Distance88%

8%Clinch0%

6%Ground12%

Share of significant strikes landed at distance, in the clinch and on the ground across each fighter's UFC rounds, weighted by strike volume.

The Story of the Fight

Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath

Where the fight lives

Who owns each phase — and by how much

Open SpaceLosene owns it

65% striking defence and 71.5" reach against Pico's 45% — Keita's home until Pico closes distance

Pocket / ExchangesLosene owns it

The Murphy counter template; three of Pico's five losses are knockouts from strikes

ClinchAaron owns it

Entries and hand-fighting set up doubles; Keita has not landed a clinch strike in the UFC

GroundAaron owns it

Takedowns at about four times the division rate against a man with seconds of UFC ground time — the largest phase edge on paper

Path to Victory

Aaron Pico

Convert phase repeatedly for fifteen minutes — takedowns and safe top minutes, as against Pitbull, without walking straight into counters on the way in.

Why they win

Wrestling pace unmatched in the comparison

6.54 takedowns per fifteen minutes at 50% accuracy against a man who has never shot a UFC takedown and has defended only one.

Volume manufactures minutes

6.16 significant strikes per minute at 54% — if takedowns stall, he can still win optics standing against a 3.91 output.

Three-round proof vs Pitbull

Unanimous decision over a veteran at UFC 327, outlanding him 100 to 49 — the template for banking safe minutes when the finish does not come.

Better damage ratio on paper

3.11 absorbed per minute against Keita's 3.97 — he lands more and eats less in the UFC aggregate.

Elite wrestling base

A decorated amateur wrestler before MMA — entries are the core skill, not a late addition.

The gameplan

1
Hand-fight to safe doubles
Avoid long pocket trades; level changes behind jabs and collar ties.
2
Ride time without reckless posture
Ground strikes and control minutes — the Pitbull template, not a first-round blitz.
3
Respect the first five minutes
Keita's first-round knockout equity is the largest single swing; survive before volume and wrestling compound.
4
Mix striking when entries stall
His standing volume is a backup plan, not the primary win condition, but it keeps the judges busy.
5
Head up on entries
Murphy finished him with a spinning back elbow while he pressed forward — chin discipline is non-negotiable.

Path to Victory

Losene Keita

Deny phase or make the first exchange the last — long counters from the outside before wrestling entries accumulate.

Why they win

Reach and defence on the feet

An inch more reach and 65% striking defence against Pico's 45% — the Murphy counter template stays live.

Early knockout base rate

Eleven career knockouts, seven in the first round; Naimov was dropped twice and finished at 2:54.

Never stopped by strikes

Nineteen pro fights without a knockout loss from strikes — his only stoppage defeat was a leg injury.

Wood split proof

Went fifteen minutes with a UFC veteran and took one judge's card while staying at range.

Takedown defence so far

Wood's only takedown attempt was stopped, and no UFC opponent has logged a second of control time on him.

The gameplan

1
Long counters off the jab
Use the reach edge and make Pico pay for every step into range.
2
Uppercuts and elbows on level changes
Meet doubles with short, tight power — the Murphy film is the study guide.
3
Scramble to feet if taken down
Avoid ground-strike accumulation before the reset.
4
Win the first round outright
Bank early optics or finish — let Pico's wrestling tax come later.
5
Stay at distance until forced
Open space is home: outside the Naimov finish, every UFC strike he has landed came at range.

Danger Zone

How Aaron Pico loses

Caught clean entering — a Murphy replay — Keita's highest-equity scenario against 45% striking defence.
Three rounds of partial control, but judges reward Keita's cleaner counters — a Wood-style split against the wrestling pressure.
Takedowns stall and Keita's reach controls the open space for fifteen minutes.

Danger Zone

How Losene Keita loses

First entries stuffed, but Pico keeps chaining and the fourth or fifth sticks — minutes on the bottom he has never had to survive in the UFC.
Three rounds of partial control and clean optics for Pico — wrestling pressure Keita has never faced in the Octagon.
Taken down early and ground strikes accumulate before he can get back to his feet.

Why conviction stops at 4/10

Two UFC Fights Each

Every headline rate in this matchup comes from two Octagon bouts per man. No UFC opponent has tried to take Pico down, and Keita's perfect takedown defence rests on one stopped attempt by Nathaniel Wood. The stylistic fork is clear; the margins are not.

UFC bouts per fighter

The central axis

Phase vs. Power

Pico must convert phase repeatedly. Keita must deny phase or make the first exchange the last. Everything else is detail around that sentence.

The reversal and the swing

Murphy vs. Naimov

Pico's UFC loss was a spinning back elbow from Lerone Murphy at 3:21 of the first; Keita's UFC win was a knockout of Muhammad Naimov at 2:54 of the first after two knockdowns. The model's 57-43 split is wrestling volume over three rounds, capped because both first-round scripts remain live.

model win % for Pico

Card context

Allen Withdrawal

This bout replaced Arnold Allen vs. Aaron Pico on the UFC 333 main card after Allen withdrew injured. Keita accepted less than two weeks after his Paris knockout and arrives with momentum, but without a fifteen-minute grappling test in the UFC.

Pitbull changed the picture

Decision Path Open

Pico is not only a finisher — the Pitbull decision proves he can win fifteen minutes at featherweight. That is why decision is his largest method bucket in the split.

decision share of Pico outcomes (%)

The Five-Round Clock

Aaron Pico danger windowLosene Keita danger windowNeutral / contested

R1 · 0:00–5:00Keita's kill window

Keita dropped Naimov twice and finished him at 2:54; Murphy stopped Pico at 3:21. Pico's first-round accuracy in the UFC is just 41%. Highest equity for the underdog before wrestling volume compounds.

Critical Insight
Three rounds, not five — Keita's early knockout curve matters more because there is little time to recover from a slow start. Pico's equity grows if the fight reaches the second and third with clean entries and without a Murphy replay.

Finish Threat by Round

Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.

The Verdict

One hundred simulated fights, the betting market, and our conviction

If you only read 3 things

A pure phase fight: Pico's wrestling volume against Keita's long-range counters and early power, with Lerone Murphy's first-round knockout of Pico as the reversal everyone will study.

Model: Pico 57% / Keita 43%, conviction 4/10 — favour wrestling volume over three rounds, capped hard by two UFC bouts each and Keita's first-round knockout path.

Fair price from the model: Pico −133 / Keita +133 — compare any posted line to 57/43 before claiming value.

Model outcomes per 100 fights

Each square represents one percentage point of the model distribution, not an observed fight. This visualization does not measure model accuracy or reduce uncertainty in the inputs.

Pico Decision — 32%Pico KO/TKO — 8%Pico Submission — 17%Keita KO/TKO — 28%Keita Decision — 12%Keita Submission — 3%

Each square = 1 model percentage point. Aaron Pico gold · Losene Keita orange · color opacity: 100% = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

Wrestling volume over three rounds

Pico lands takedowns at about four times the featherweight average — the repeatable edge if entries are disciplined, and the core reason the model leans his way.

Short Octagon résumés

Two UFC bouts apiece caps conviction at 4/10, and both takedown-defence figures rest on almost no attempts.

Murphy counter equity

A first-round knockout loss and 45% striking defence keep Keita's 28-point knockout bucket live, not cosmetic.

Pitbull decision proof

Fifteen minutes at featherweight against a veteran — the reason decision is Pico's largest method share at 32 points.

Keita's untested ground game

He has spent seconds, not minutes, on the mat in the UFC; the model still favours Pico on phase, but with wide error bars.

Fight Scripts

of simulations

The Pitbull Repeat

Pico survives the first five minutes, chains safe doubles, and banks control in the second and third — a clear decision on optics and grappling minutes.

Scripted outcomes for Aaron Pico vs Losene Keita — how each version of this fight unfolds.

Aaron Pico win probability

32%

17%

KO/TKODECSUB

Eight points — capped by Keita's defence and durability (never stopped by strikes) and by Pico's need for disciplined entries.
Thirty-two points — the Pitbull decision is the proof; the largest single bucket when wrestling minutes accumulate over three rounds.
Seventeen points — two career submissions (rear-naked choke, anaconda) and no UFC attempts yet, but sustained top control raises his submission equity.

Losene Keita win probability

28%

12%

KO/TKODECSUB

Twenty-eight points — eleven career knockouts and the Naimov first-round finish; the fight's biggest swing lives in the first five minutes against Pico's 45% striking defence.
Twelve points — the Wood split shows judges can favour him without a finish, but Pico's wrestling pressure is new.
Three points — zero career submissions; included only as a tail outcome if scrambles go wrong for Pico.

Projected Scorecards

How the model scores each round

Losene

Aaron

29-28 Pico

Loses a close first, banks wrestling minutes in two and three

Modal card inside the 32% decision bucket

30-27 Pico

Entries stick every round after a cautious open

Live if Keita cannot punish level changes

29-28 Keita

First-round swing plus Wood-style technical scoring

Primary path inside Keita's 12% decision share

Model and price

Aaron Pico

Insufficient price data

Model win probability: 57%
Fair odds: -133

Reference quote: —
Fair decimal odds: 1.75

Estimated EV: —
Edge vs no-vig market: —

Losene Keita

Insufficient price data

Model win probability: 43%
Fair odds: +133

Reference quote: —
Fair decimal odds: 2.33

Estimated EV: —
Edge vs no-vig market: —

EV uses the displayed price: probability × decimal odds − 1. Edge is a percentage-point difference from a proportionally de-vigged, same-book pair. A dash means that comparison is unavailable.

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Fair odds are the break-even price under this estimate, not a recommended entry price. Model uncertainty can erase a small edge.

What price would change the calculation? · Aaron Pico

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Assumed win probability (%)Your target estimated EV (%)

Required decimal price: 1.76 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

What price would change the calculation? · Losene Keita

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Assumed win probability (%)Your target estimated EV (%)

Required decimal price: 2.33 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

Original analyst price notes

These notes describe the original analysis and may refer to older prices.

Value is defined against model fair: Pico holds value at any price longer than −133 and Keita at anything longer than +133. Inside that band the fight is priced about right, and Keita's first-round knockout path is the reason not to lay a big number on Pico.

Conviction

4/10

Editorial confidence in the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

A modest lean, not a hammer. Repeatable wrestling volume and the Pitbull three-round proof carry Pico to 57, while two UFC bouts each, takedown-defence figures built on almost no attempts, and Keita's first-round knockout path cap confidence at 4/10. Lean: Aaron Pico.

What backs the lean

A takedown rate about four times the featherweight average, plus the higher striking volume — clear phase-changing inputs over three rounds.
Unanimous decision over Patricio Pitbull proves fifteen-minute viability at featherweight.
Better absorption (3.11 vs 3.97) and higher accuracy (54% vs 47%) in the UFC aggregate.
Keita has seconds of UFC ground time — untested if entries stick repeatedly.

What limits it

Only two UFC fights each — the rates can still swing, especially takedown defence.
Murphy's first-round knockout and 45% striking defence — Keita's 28-point knockout bucket is live.
Keita's 65% striking defence, reach edge, durability and the Naimov first-round finish.
Keita's perfect takedown defence rests on one attempt — it proves little either way against sustained doubles.

Final Assessment

Aaron Pico vs Losene Keita is a phase fork between two men with two Octagon fights apiece. Pico's UFC profile is wrestling-heavy — 6.54 takedowns per fifteen minutes, 6.16 significant strikes per minute — and the unanimous decision over Patricio Pitbull, where he outlanded the veteran 100 to 49 and took him down six times, is the proof that he can bank fifteen minutes at featherweight. Keita is the inverse: 65% striking defence, an inch more reach, no UFC takedown attempts, and a first-round knockout of Muhammad Naimov in Paris sitting beside a split loss to Nathaniel Wood when the fight stayed technical.

The model leans Pico 57% to Keita 43% with conviction 4 out of 10 because the repeatable three-round route is wrestling volume and safe minutes, while the largest single reversal remains a counter finish on Pico's entries — exactly how Lerone Murphy ended his UFC debut with a spinning back elbow. Method shares reflect that tension: Pico 8 KO / 32 decision / 17 submission, Keita 28 KO / 12 decision / 3 submission, summing to each fighter's win total. Fair moneyline from the central estimate is Pico −133 and Keita +133.

The honest read: take Pico narrowly if you trust phase repetition over fifteen minutes, respect Keita's early power and durability at plus money, and treat both takedown-defence figures as early reads — no one has tried to take Pico down in the UFC, and Keita has faced one attempt. This bout replaced Arnold Allen vs. Pico on the UFC 333 main card; Keita steps in with momentum but without a grappling test at this level. That is the fight in one sentence: wrestling volume versus the first exchange, with the judges waiting if both survive.

Back to UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev Fight Card