Jacob Malkoun vs Abubakar Vagaev: analysis & prediction

PRELIMS · MIDDLEWEIGHT · 3 ROUNDSUFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev
Jacob Malkoun — Middleweight fighter

Jacob Malkoun

“Mamba”
10W3L
Top-Control Wrestler
VS
Abubakar Vagaev — Middleweight fighter

Abubakar Vagaev

25W4L
Clinch Wrestler

A natural middleweight grinder against a two-time ACA champion moving up from welterweight.

MiddleweightEtihad Arena, Abu Dhabi, United Arab EmiratesOctober 24, 2026Standard 30ft Octagon

Fight overview

The fight in 30 seconds

Vagaev won his UFC debut by pinning Saygid Izagakhmaev to the fence early, then was hurt, mounted and nearly submitted in the third round. Malkoun is the heavier grappler and the stronger closer: his control grows every round, and he out-struck Torrez Finney and Gerald Meerschaert. If Vagaev cannot win the opening clinch exchanges at a new weight, the late rounds belong to Malkoun.

Paths that change the fight

  • Jacob MalkounSurvive Vagaev's opening clinch without being pinned and ridden, box him at range where his debut output was lowest, and take over Rounds 2 and 3 with the chain wrestling and top control that peak late in his fights.
  • Abubakar VagaevWin the first clinch, pin Malkoun to the fence and trip him as he did Izagakhmaev, bank Round 1 — Malkoun's most vulnerable round — and steal one of the next two with knees and body shots in the clinch.
What limits this estimate · Analyst conviction: 5/10
  • 29 professional fights, three titles and six 25-minute wins — a level of experience Malkoun has never faced across the cage.
  • Malkoun's Round 1: the round in which he concedes most of his takedowns and absorbs most of his strikes, and Vagaev's best UFC round.

Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

Jacob Malkoun

Insufficient price data
Model win probability
64%
Fair odds
-178
Reference quote
—
Fair decimal odds
1.56

Abubakar Vagaev

Insufficient price data
Model win probability
36%
Fair odds
+178
Reference quote
—
Fair decimal odds
2.78
Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Sources and data limitations

Career statistics and fight results through September 2026. Composite scores, simulations, probabilities and fair prices are MMA Analytics model outputs.

Model methodology
Read the evidenceInspect prices and assumptions
01

The Frame

What this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it

The Analyst's Take

Jacob Malkoun came back from a long injury layoff boxing first and wrestling second, and the new version has not lost. Abubakar Vagaev, a decorated ACA champion whose last eleven wins all went to the scorecards, climbs 15 pounds to meet him. The question is whether a welterweight's clinch game survives a natural middleweight's size on the fence, and the trend lines diverge: Malkoun's control builds every round, while Vagaev's slipped in each round of his debut. That makes the opening round the swing, the stretch where Malkoun has looked most vulnerable and Vagaev did his best UFC work.

Jacob Malkoun
Attribute
Abubakar Vagaev
312-year gap
Age
33
5'9"
Height
+3" Vagaev6'0"
73"
Reach
73"
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Middleweight
Natural Division
Welterweight — first UFC fight at 185
Gracie Jiu-Jitsu Smeaton Grange, Sydney
Team
Akhmat Fight Club, Grozny
Oct 24, 2020 (UFC 254, Abu Dhabi)
Octagon Debut
Jul 25, 2026 (Abu Dhabi)
9 (6-3)
Octagon Bouts
1 (1-0)
13 (10-3)
Pro Fights
29 (25-4)
0
25-Minute Wins
6
1
Career KO Losses
3
175 (UD win)
Days Since Last Fight
91 (UD win)
Chain wrestler and top-control grinder, boxing first since 2024
Fighting Style
Clinch-and-fence wrestler, decision specialist

The measurements that matter are not on the ruler. Vagaev is three inches taller (6'0" to 5'9") with the same 73-inch reach, but he won all of his titles at welterweight and makes his first UFC walk at 185, while Malkoun — a former rugby league prop — has fought his whole career at middleweight. Height helps Vagaev on the fence, where he wants to pin and trip; weight helps Malkoun everywhere else, and most of all on top in the later rounds. Experience splits the other way: 29 professional fights and six 25-minute wins for Vagaev against 13 fights and none past fifteen minutes for Malkoun — but nine Octagon appearances against one.

Venue Factor
UFC 333 uses the full-size Octagon. Vagaev's debut was a fence fight — most of his control came from pinning Izagakhmaev to the cage and tripping him — and a bigger cage gives Malkoun more room to circle off early. Malkoun does not need room himself: his wrestling is built on getting to the hips and riding, not on cutting the cage off. The venue also closes a loop. Malkoun was knocked out in 18 seconds on his UFC debut in Abu Dhabi on October 24, 2020 — six years to the day before this fight.
02

The Fighters

Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage

Jacob Malkoun throws punches at AJ Dobson from top position during their UFC 271 fight in Houston, February 2022

Jacob Malkoun

Pro Record
10-3-0
UFC Record
6-3 across nine bouts since October 2020
Streak
3-fight win streak — Petroski, Finney, Meerschaert
Finish Rate
30% (3 of 10 wins) — 3 KO/TKO, 0 submissions
Avg Fight Time
11:08
Chin · Solid — one knockdown absorbed in nine UFC bouts, on his 18-second debut in 2020SOS · UFC mid-tierWrestler / Top-Control Grappler

Malkoun's UFC career has two halves. From 2020 to 2023 he was a pure chain wrestler: 31 takedowns in his first six bouts, 36.6 seconds of every minute spent in control, and decisions over Abdul Razak Alhassan (11:41 of control), AJ Dobson and Nick Maximov. That version lost where it could not hold position — an 18-second knockout by Phil Hawes on his debut and a decision to Brendan Allen, who reversed him twice and out-landed him 45–33 — plus a disqualification against Cody Brundage for an illegal elbow to the back of the head while he was winning comfortably. After stopping Andre Petroski with a soccer kick to the body in March 2024, an injury kept him out for 22 months. The Malkoun who came back boxes first: across his last three fights he lands 4.85 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.02, and he shoots about a third as often. The peak was UFC 325 in Sydney — 117 significant strikes to 27 against the unbeaten Torrez Finney, a knockdown, and 10-8 rounds on two cards. The warning came three months later in Perth, where Gerald Meerschaert reversed him and rode him for most of Round 1 before Malkoun took the last two rounds for a 29-28 decision. Across all nine UFC bouts he has spent 47% of his Octagon time in control and been taken down only four times.

Abubakar Vagaev portrait

Abubakar Vagaev

Pro Record
25-4-0
UFC Record
1-0 — debut win in July 2026, at welterweight
Streak
4-fight win streak — Prazeres, Esengulov, Tumenov, Izagakhmaev
Finish Rate
20% (5 of 25 wins) — 4 KO/TKO, 1 submission
Avg Fight Time
15:00 (one UFC bout)
Chin · Questioned — three career KO losses (2016, 2018, 2022) and hurt in Round 3 of his UFC debutSOS · Regional title levelWrestler / Clinch Control

Vagaev has been a professional since 2012 and a decision fighter almost the whole way: 20 of his 25 wins went the distance, and none of his last eleven wins — a run going back to October 2017 — ended early. He won a WFCA belt in 2017, ACA welterweight gold in 2022, and in February 2025 completed the 2023 ACA Welterweight Grand Prix with a 25-minute unanimous decision over the reigning champion Albert Tumenov, after five-round wins over Michel Prazeres and Edil Esengulov. He has avenged three of his four losses; the fourth, a second-round elbow knockout by Vitaliy Slipenko in December 2022, belongs to a pattern of three knockout defeats that the decision record can hide. After a 17-month layoff he beat Saygid Izagakhmaev on three 29-28 cards in Abu Dhabi in July: two of four takedowns and 4:07 of control in the first round, his best striking round in the second (20 landed, much of it to the body in the clinch), then a third round in which he was out-landed 13–4, hurt, mounted and threatened with three submissions. He was out-landed 33–27 overall and won on control and the first two rounds. Now he moves up from welterweight for his second UFC fight, at 33.

Jacob Malkoun
0 dealt · 0 absorbed
Knockdown Exchange
Knockdowns dealt vs absorbed.
Abubakar Vagaev
0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Jacob Malkounsignature weapons

Chain Wrestling and Top ControlNot a finisher on its own, but the core of his game: 36 UFC takedowns on 84 attempts and 47:28 of control — 11:41 against Alhassan, 9:17 against Dobson
×0
Punches (TKO)Ryan Heketa in Round 1 (2018) and Christophe Van Dijck in Round 3 (2019), both before the UFC; he also dropped Torrez Finney with a right hand in 2026
×2
Soccer Kick to the BodyAndre Petroski at 0:39 of Round 2, March 2024 — his only UFC stoppage
×1
Guillotine ThreatFive UFC submission attempts, three of them against Finney; a jiu-jitsu black belt who has never been submitted
×0

Abubakar Vagaevsignature weapons

Fence Clinch and TripsThe core of his game: 4 of 10 takedowns and 7:46 of control in his UFC debut, most of it from pinning Izagakhmaev to the cage — 4:07 in Round 1 alone
×0
Punches (TKO)David Castillo (2015) and Nodar Kudukhashvili (2017), both in Round 1
×2
Doctor StoppageArtur Odilbekov in Round 2 (2014) and Luiz Jorge Dutra Jr. at 0:21 of Round 1 (2017)
×2
SubmissionFarhad Medzhidov in Round 1, June 2014 — his only submission in 29 fights
×1

Jacob Malkoun

W
Gerald Meerschaert
Decision — Unanimous (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Opponent context: veteran

R3 (5:00)
UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates, Perth — May 2, 2026 (190-lb catchweight; Meerschaert missed weight)
W
Torrez Finney
Decision — Unanimous (30-26, 30-26, 30-27)

Opponent context: prospect

R3 (5:00)
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2, Sydney — Jan 31, 2026 (Finney unbeaten at the time)
W
Andre Petroski
KO/TKO — Soccer kick to the body

Opponent context: ufc

R2 (0:39)
UFC on ESPN: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot, Atlantic City — Mar 30, 2024
L
Cody Brundage
DQ — Illegal elbow to the back of the head

Opponent context: ufc

R1 (4:15)
UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gamrot — Sep 23, 2023 (Malkoun was dominating)
W
Nick Maximov
Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: ufc

R3 (5:00)
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Araújo — Oct 15, 2022
Pattern

Four wins in five, and the loss is a disqualification from a fight he was dominating — 28 of 39 significant strikes landed on the ground and 3:39 of control before the illegal elbow. The trend since his layoff is up on the feet: 4.85 landed per minute in his last three fights against 3.89 before, and 2.02 absorbed against 2.49. The Finney fight is his best UFC performance on any measure. The Meerschaert fight is the caution: a veteran who missed weight took the first round on every card by reversing him and riding for 3:56, and Malkoun needed the last two rounds — 30–28 on strikes at distance plus two late takedowns — to win 29-28.

Abubakar Vagaev

W
Saygid Izagakhmaev
Decision — Unanimous (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Opponent context: ufc

R3 (5:00)
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov, Abu Dhabi — Jul 25, 2026 (welterweight; UFC debut)
W
Albert Tumenov
Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: ufc adjacent

R5 (5:00)
ACA 183, Krasnodar — Feb 8, 2025 (ACA welterweight title; Grand Prix final)
W
Edil Esengulov
Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: ufc adjacent

R5 (5:00)
ACA 172 — Mar 9, 2024 (Grand Prix semi-final)
W
Michel Prazeres
Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: veteran

R5 (5:00)
ACA 162 — Sep 2, 2023 (Grand Prix quarter-final)
L
Vitaliy Slipenko
KO/TKO — Elbow

Opponent context: ufc adjacent

R2 (0:20)
ACA 149 — Dec 16, 2022
Pattern

Four straight wins, the first three of them 25-minute tournament decisions on the way to ACA gold, then a UFC debut won on the cards. The level is genuine — Tumenov was the reigning ACA champion and a 5-3 UFC welterweight — and so is the finishing pattern: no stoppage win since May 2017. Durability is the counterweight. His last loss was a second-round elbow knockout, the third knockout of his career, and Izagakhmaev hurt him in the third round in July. The debut split cleanly by round: dominant wrestling early, his best striking in the middle, and a lost final five minutes.

Jacob Malkoun

Win Methods
Wins by Round

Abubakar Vagaev

Win Methods
Wins by Round
Critical Insight
Both donuts and both round charts cover each man's full professional record, so they sum to 10 and 25 wins. This is a decision matchup by construction: 70% of Malkoun's wins and 80% of Vagaev's went the distance, and Vagaev has not finished anyone since May 2017 — all eleven of his wins since then went to the cards, six of them over 25 minutes. The finishes that do exist are early for Vagaev (four in the first round, one in the second, all between 2014 and 2017) and spread across all three rounds for Malkoun, whose only UFC stoppage was a soccer kick to the body of a downed Andre Petroski. The losses tell the more useful story: three of Vagaev's four defeats are knockouts, and Malkoun has been stopped once, in 18 seconds, six years ago.

Common Opponents

OpponentJacobAbubakar
Michel Pereira and Andre Petroski (indirect)W· TKO R2 0:39 over Petroski — Mar 2024W· UD over Pereira — Apr 2016
Vagaev out-pointed Michel Pereira in Grozny in 2016. Pereira later stopped Andre Petroski in 66 seconds in October 2023, five months before Malkoun stopped Petroski with a kick to the body. A decade and two weight classes apart, it separates nothing.
03

The Numbers

Composites, division context and round-by-round evidence

Composite scores summarize selected statistics on a 0–100 scale. They are not win probabilities. Compare the underlying metrics, opponent quality and UFC experience before interpreting a score difference as a matchup advantage.

Striking

SLpM 25% · StrAcc 30% · StrDef 30% · SApM 15%

0
Jacob
0
Abubakarfew UFC fights

An 11-point gap. Malkoun lands at the middleweight average across his UFC career and well above it since 2024 (4.85 per minute in his last three fights), with above-average accuracy and defence and 36% fewer strikes absorbed than the division mean. Vagaev's only UFC line — 1.80 landed per minute at 39% — sits far below the division; his 60% defence and 2.20 absorbed per minute are his only above-average inputs, and he was out-landed in that fight.

Grappling

TD/15 25% · TDAcc 25% · TDDef 30% · Sub/15 20%

0
Jacob
0
Abubakarfew UFC fights

Both men max out the takedown-rate input — Malkoun at 5.39 per fifteen minutes, Vagaev at 4.00 — so the formula compresses the gap. Malkoun's +5 top-control adjustment reflects 47% of his Octagon time spent in control across nine bouts; Vagaev's +3 reflects 7:46 of control in his debut, trimmed because the same fight ended with him mounted and defending three submission attempts. Vagaev's 71% to 56% takedown-defence edge rests on seven and nine attempts.

Technical

(Striking + Grappling) / 2

0.0
Jacob
0.0
Abubakarfew UFC fights

A ten-point edge to Malkoun, built from both halves. Vagaev's inputs come from one fight at welterweight and could move in a second fight; neither gauge would flip on any plausible revision.

Cardio

Fight time · pace · R3/R1 output · championship rounds

0
Jacob
0
Abubakar

Close. Vagaev owns six 25-minute decision wins, the deepest proven tank in this matchup, but his only UFC third round was his worst — out-landed 13–4 and mounted — and he now carries a heavier man. Malkoun's control peaks in Round 3 (171 seconds) alongside his best accuracy, and he has fought three times in 2026.

Overall

(Technical + Cardio) / 2

0.0
Jacob
0.0
Abubakarfew UFC fights

About six and a half points to Malkoun. Archetype history is neutral — Wrestler against Wrestler is 50% across 28 fights — so the gap maps onto weight class, output and round shape: roughly 64/36, a solid favourite rather than a lock.

MetricJacobAbubakar
Avg Fight Time11:08 (9 UFC bouts)15:00 (1 UFC bout)few UFC fights
Pace4.23 landed per min · 4.85 in last three1.80 landed per minfew UFC fights
Control Share47% of Octagon time52% in his debutfew UFC fights
Round 3 vs Round 1 Control171 s vs 87 s — rises every round92 s vs 247 s — lost Round 3few UFC fights
25-Minute ExperienceNone — never past 15:00Six five-round decision wins

Archetype Base Rate

Wrestler 50%50% Wrestler

28-fight sample · Archetype history settles nothing: Wrestler against Wrestler is 14-14 across 28 fights. The 64/36 lean comes from weight class, Octagon depth, striking output and the round-by-round shape of both men's fights.

Jacob MalkounAbubakar Vagaev

Middleweight

· 46 fighters

Rank bars use the recorded division cohort. Where a rank is unavailable, the comparison shows the difference from the published division average; the white marker denotes equality. Percentage differences are percentage points (pp). Higher is not always better: fewer strikes absorbed is preferable. Missing benchmarks are not estimated.

StatJacobJacob comparisonDiv avgAbubakar comparisonAbubakar
SLpM4.23
+0.01 vs avg
4.22
-2.42 vs avgfew UFC fights
1.80
Str Acc57%
+4.10 pp vs avg
52.9%
-13.90 pp vs avgfew UFC fights
39%
Str Def55%
+3.10 pp vs avg
51.9%
+8.10 pp vs avgfew UFC fights
60%
SApM2.33
-1.30 vs avg
3.63
-1.43 vs avgfew UFC fights
2.20
KD Avg0.15
-0.40 vs avg
0.55
-0.55 vs avgfew UFC fights
0.00
Damage Ratio1.82
+0.57 vs avg
1.25
-0.43 vs avgfew UFC fights
0.82
TD/155.39
+3.46 vs avg
1.93
+2.07 vs avgfew UFC fights
4.00
TD Acc43% (36 of 84)
Not available
—
Not availablefew UFC fights
40% (4 of 10)
TD Def56% (4 conceded of 9)
Not availablefew UFC fights
—
Not availablefew UFC fights
71% (2 conceded of 7)
Sub/150.75
+0.03 vs avg
0.72
-0.72 vs avgfew UFC fights
0.00
Control Share47%
Not available
—
Not availablefew UFC fights
52%
Avg Fight Time11:08
Not available
—
Not available
15:00
Statistical Verdict
Malkoun leads every output, efficiency and damage measure, and he owns them over nine UFC bouts at this weight: average volume with a recent surge, above-average accuracy, 36% fewer strikes absorbed than the division mean, and a takedown rate 2.8 times the average. Vagaev's two edges are defensive percentages — 60% striking defence and 71% takedown defence — and both come from a single fifteen-minute welterweight fight in which he was out-landed and lost the final round. The counterweight is not a rate at all: 29 professional fights, six 25-minute wins and eleven decision wins since his last finish describe a man who is very hard to beat clearly on the cards, even when he is losing minutes.

Significant Strikes Landed per Round

⚠ R1, R2, R3: single-fight sample for Abubakar Vagaev

Control Time per Round (sec)

Jacob Malkoun

  • His control grows every round: 87 seconds in an average opening round, 149 in the second, 171 in the third — and 14 of his 36 UFC takedowns came in his six third rounds.
  • He wins every round on volume on average (+7.5, +13.2 and +5.1 landed), but Round 1 is where he absorbs the most (12.8 per opening round) and has conceded three of the four takedowns he has given up in the UFC — the round of the Hawes knockout and Meerschaert's 3:56 ride.
  • A third of his Round 2 and Round 3 output lands on the ground, and 92% of everything he lands goes to the head. Body and leg work is almost absent, which leaves the body attack to his opponent.

Abubakar Vagaev

  • Round 1 was pure wrestling: two of four takedowns and 4:07 of control against Izagakhmaev, but only three significant strikes — most of his work was short shots from the fence and top position.
  • Round 2 was his best striking round: 20 landed at 44%, 30% of it to the body and 30% in the clinch, with 2:07 of control on top.
  • Round 3 went the other way: out-landed 13–4 at 21% accuracy, control down to 1:32, and 1:58 spent underneath while Izagakhmaev took his back, mounted him and attempted three submissions. All three judges gave the round to Izagakhmaev.
Critical Insight
Read the control lines side by side. Malkoun's rises every round — 87, 149, 171 seconds — and his takedown rate peaks in the third. Vagaev's only UFC fight falls every round — 247, 127, 92 seconds — and ends with his opponent on his back. The first round is the one genuinely contested five minutes; from the second round on, every trend on this chart moves toward Malkoun.

Strike targeting

Jacob

Head
92%
Body
7%
Legs
1%

Abubakar

Head
59%
Body
26%
Legs
15%

Head hunting vs body work vs leg attack — the shape of the damage.

Striking range — distance, clinch and ground

JacobAbubakar
69%Distance67%
4%Clinch26%
27%Ground7%

Share of significant strikes landed at distance, in the clinch and on the ground across each fighter's UFC rounds, weighted by strike volume.

04

The Story of the Fight

Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath

Where the fight lives

Who owns each phase — and by how much
Open SpaceJacob owns it

4.85 landed per minute across Malkoun's last three fights against Vagaev's 1.80 at 39% — Vagaev landed 18 of 59 at distance in his debut

Pocket / ExchangesJacob owns it

Malkoun dropped Finney with a right hand; Vagaev has three career knockout losses and was hurt by Izagakhmaev — offset by Malkoun's own 18-second debut loss

ClinchAbubakar owns it

26% of Vagaev's debut output landed in the clinch, with knees and body shots on the fence; only 4% of Malkoun's UFC output comes from the clinch

GroundJacob owns it

47% of Malkoun's Octagon time in control and a jiu-jitsu black belt, against a Vagaev who was mounted and faced three submission attempts in his last UFC round

The Deep Read

The most specific piece of evidence in this matchup is five years old. In April 2021 Abdul Razak Alhassan, a welterweight, moved up to 185 for his first middleweight fight and met Jacob Malkoun. Malkoun landed 8 of 24 takedowns, controlled 11:41 of the 15 minutes and won every round. Alhassan was a striker, and Abubakar Vagaev is a two-time ACA champion who wrestled his way through 29 professional fights, so the comparison only goes so far. But the mechanism carries over. Vagaev's game is positional — pin the opponent to the fence, trip him, ride him — and in his UFC debut that game won two rounds against a welterweight. Against a natural middleweight who spent 47% of his Octagon time on top, the same positions have to be won against more weight, for three rounds, and Malkoun's wrestling gets stronger as a fight goes on.

The complication is which Malkoun shows up, and when. Before his 22-month layoff he shot more than seven takedowns per fifteen minutes; since, he has boxed first — 4.85 significant strikes per minute across his last three fights, including 117 on Torrez Finney. That is the better matchup against a man who landed 1.80 per minute and was out-landed by a welterweight in July. The danger lives in the first round. It is where Malkoun has conceded three of his four UFC takedowns and absorbed the most strikes, and it is where Gerald Meerschaert reversed him and rode him for 3:56 in May. Brendan Allen, the one opponent to out-grapple him over fifteen minutes, also did it by reversing him. Vagaev's best UFC round was an opening round of fence control, and if he can make the first five minutes look like the Meerschaert round, he has a real scoring path.

Two things keep that path narrow. The first is durability. Vagaev has been knocked out three times — the last two in the second round — and Saygid Izagakhmaev hurt him, took his back and mounted him in the third round in July; Malkoun's only knockdown absorbed in the UFC came on his 18-second debut in 2020. The second is the scorecard shape. Both men arrive off three 29-28 cards, and they are mirror images: Malkoun lost the first round to Meerschaert and won the last two, Vagaev won the first two against Izagakhmaev and lost the last. The model reads Round 1 as a coin flip and Rounds 2 and 3 as Malkoun's. That is why the decision is so dominant — 77 of 100 simulations go the distance, and Malkoun takes 48 of those 77 — and why Vagaev's eleven decision wins since 2017 keep his side of the forecast alive at 36%.

Jacob Malkoun roars in the Octagon after his unanimous-decision win over Torrez Finney at UFC 325 in Sydney
Malkoun after beating the unbeaten Torrez Finney at UFC 325, Sydney, 2026
Path to Victory

Jacob Malkoun

Survive Vagaev's opening clinch without being pinned and ridden, box him at range where his debut output was lowest, and take over Rounds 2 and 3 with the chain wrestling and top control that peak late in his fights.

Why they win
01
The weight class

A former rugby league prop who has fought his entire career at middleweight, against a man whose 29 professional fights were built at welterweight. Vagaev's grappling is positional — pin, trip, ride — and positional grappling is exactly what extra mass defeats.

02
The volume gap on the feet

4.85 significant strikes landed per minute across his last three fights, against Vagaev's 1.80. Vagaev was out-landed 33–27 by a welterweight in his debut; Malkoun landed 117 on Torrez Finney.

03
The third round

His control rises from 87 to 149 to 171 seconds by round, and 14 of his 36 UFC takedowns come in the third. Vagaev's only UFC third round was his worst: out-landed, mounted and facing three submission attempts.

04
A template against this exact profile

He took Abdul Razak Alhassan — a welterweight moving up for his first middleweight fight — down 8 times and controlled 11:41 of the 15 minutes in 2021, the largest control total of his UFC career.

05
Durability

One UFC knockdown absorbed in nine fights, on his 18-second debut in 2020, and none in the 99.9 Octagon minutes since. Vagaev has three knockout losses and was hurt again in July.

The gameplan
  1. 1
    Box first

    The recent version wins with the jab and the right hand at range; Vagaev's distance striking landed 18 of 59 in his debut.

  2. 2
    Refuse the fence early

    Round 1 belongs to Vagaev only if it becomes a clinch fight on the cage. Circle off, frame, and make him shoot from open space.

  3. 3
    Wrestle on reactions

    Take the takedown when Vagaev over-commits to a clinch entry — the level change off a failed tie-up is the Alhassan and Maximov pattern.

  4. 4
    Build to Round 3

    His control, accuracy and takedown rate all peak late. A close first round can be recovered; he has done it against Meerschaert.

  5. 5
    Hold position, skip the scrambles

    Allen and Meerschaert both beat him in transitions. Against Vagaev, heavy top pressure and back control beat chasing submissions.

Path to Victory

Abubakar Vagaev

Win the first clinch, pin Malkoun to the fence and trip him as he did Izagakhmaev, bank Round 1 — Malkoun's most vulnerable round — and steal one of the next two with knees and body shots in the clinch.

Why they win
01
Experience and composure

29 professional fights, three titles, six 25-minute decision wins and a Grand Prix run through Prazeres, Esengulov and Tumenov. Nothing in this fight will be new to him.

02
The clinch and the fence

26% of his debut output landed in the clinch, and his takedowns come from pinning opponents to the cage. Malkoun's clinch offence is almost non-existent — 4% of what he lands in the UFC.

03
Height and body work

Three inches taller with equal reach, and 41% of his significant strikes go to the body or legs, while Malkoun sends 92% of his to the head.

04
Malkoun's Round 1

The round in which Malkoun has conceded three of his four UFC takedowns, absorbed the most strikes and been ridden by Meerschaert. Vagaev's best UFC round was an opening round of fence control.

05
Scorecard resilience

Eleven wins on the cards since his last stoppage in 2017, including a 29-28 debut win that most observers scored close. He knows how to bank rounds without doing damage, and Malkoun's own last win was a 29-28.

The gameplan
  1. 1
    Win the first clinch

    Get to the body lock, press Malkoun into the fence and take Round 1 the way he took it from Izagakhmaev.

  2. 2
    Work the body

    Knees and body shots in the clinch tax a shorter, heavier opponent and blunt the late-round wrestling surge.

  3. 3
    Use the height at range

    Long straight punches and kicks to stop Malkoun from settling into boxing combinations.

  4. 4
    Defend and stand

    Against a better top player than he has faced in the UFC, the priority on the mat is the fastest route back to his feet, not a guard game.

  5. 5
    Steal the second round

    If he banks Round 1, a clinch-heavy Round 2 with body work wins the fight 29-28, exactly as it did in July.

Danger Zone

How Jacob Malkoun loses

  • The Meerschaert first round, stretched to fifteen minutes: Vagaev beats him to the clinch, trips him at the fence and rides, and Malkoun spends the fight wrestling from underneath instead of hitting.

  • He chases takedowns against a stronger wrestler than he has ever faced, fails repeatedly on the fence, and loses two rounds to the height and the body work — a 29-28 for the man who did less damage.

  • The Hawes clause: he walks into something clean in the first minute, before his wrestling ever starts.

Danger Zone

How Abubakar Vagaev loses

  • His takedowns do not work on a heavier man, the fight stays at distance, and he gets out-landed three or four to one by a fighter who just put 117 significant strikes on an unbeaten prospect.

  • The Izagakhmaev third round with more weight on top: taken down late, back taken or mounted, and a black belt finishes what a welterweight could not.

  • The chin question again: hurt in the pocket in Round 2 — where two of his three knockout losses happened — and finished with ground strikes.

Malkoun against a welterweight moving up

He Has Done This Before

In April 2021 Abdul Razak Alhassan moved up from welterweight for his first middleweight fight and met Malkoun. Malkoun landed 8 of 24 takedowns and controlled 11:41 of the 15 minutes, the largest control total of his UFC career, and won a unanimous decision. Alhassan was a striker and Vagaev is a decorated wrestler, which is why the lean stops at 64/36, but the mechanism transfers: a smaller man who needs to hold position or get back up spends three rounds carrying a heavier one.

11:41
Malkoun's control against Alhassan, a welterweight moving up (2021)
Boxing first since the layoff

Two Malkouns

Before his 22-month injury layoff, Malkoun shot 7.20 takedowns per fifteen minutes and controlled 36.6 seconds of every minute. In his last three fights he shoots 2.10 and controls 13.6 — but lands 4.85 significant strikes per minute instead of 3.89 and absorbs 2.02 instead of 2.49. The striking version is the better matchup against Vagaev's low-output stand-up; the wrestling version is still there, as his 3-for-3 takedown night against Meerschaert showed.

4.85 vs 3.89
Malkoun's significant strikes landed per minute, last three fights vs first six
Vagaev's decision record

Eleven Wins, All on the Cards

Vagaev's last stoppage win came in May 2017. Every one of his eleven wins since has gone the distance, six of them over 25 minutes, including the 2023 ACA Grand Prix run and the title win over Albert Tumenov. It makes him very hard to beat clearly and very unlikely to finish anyone — the model gives him a 5% knockout share and a 29% decision share.

11
consecutive Vagaev wins by decision, since October 2017
One closes, one fades

Mirror-Image 29-28s

Both men arrive off three 29-28 cards. Malkoun lost Round 1 to Meerschaert on every card and won the last two; Vagaev won the first two against Izagakhmaev and lost the last, hurt and mounted. The round-by-round numbers say the same thing — Malkoun's control rises from 87 to 171 seconds by the third round, Vagaev's fell from 247 to 92 — and in a three-round fight that asymmetry decides close cards.

R1 vs R3
the round each man lost in his latest win (Malkoun R1, Vagaev R3)
Three knockout losses against one

The Chin Asymmetry

Vagaev has been knocked out three times — by Beslan Ushukov in Round 4 (2016), Murad Abdulaev in Round 2 (2018) and Vitaliy Slipenko with an elbow in Round 2 (2022) — and Izagakhmaev hurt him in July. Malkoun's only knockdown absorbed in the UFC was the 18-second debut loss to Phil Hawes in 2020, and he has not been dropped in the 99.9 Octagon minutes since. Neither man is a heavy finisher, so the knockout shares stay small, but they are lopsided: 11% Malkoun, 5% Vagaev.

3 vs 1
career knockout losses, Vagaev vs Malkoun

The Five-Round Clock

Jacob Malkoun danger windowAbubakar Vagaev danger windowNeutral / contested
R1 · 0:00–5:00The clinch race

Vagaev's best UFC round was an opening round — 4:07 of control and two takedowns against Izagakhmaev — and Round 1 is where Malkoun absorbs the most (12.8 per round) and has conceded three of his four UFC takedowns. Malkoun still averages 20.3 landed to 12.8 absorbed here. The model ends the fight in this round about 7 times in 100 — 4 Malkoun finishes to 3.

Critical Insight
Round 1 is the only genuinely contested five minutes: Vagaev's best UFC round against Malkoun's most vulnerable one. From Round 2 on, every trend — control, takedown rate, accuracy, opponent output — moves toward Malkoun. Vagaev most likely needs Round 1 and one of the other two; Malkoun can lose the first and still win the fight.

Finish Threat by Round

Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.

05

The Verdict

One hundred simulated fights, the betting market, and our conviction

If you only read 3 things
1

Malkoun 64% / Vagaev 36%, conviction 5/10. A natural middleweight with nine Octagon fights meets a two-time ACA welterweight champion making his first UFC walk at 185 — and Malkoun has already controlled a welterweight moving up for most of fifteen minutes.

2

Vagaev's route runs through the first round. His best UFC round was an opening round of fence control, and the opening round is where Malkoun has been most vulnerable; from the second round on, every trend favours the man whose control grows as the fight goes on.

3

The most reliable call on the page is not the winner: the fight goes the distance 77 times in 100. Both men win mostly on the scorecards, and Vagaev has not stopped anyone since 2017.

Model outcomes per 100 fights

Each square represents one percentage point of the model distribution, not an observed fight. This visualization does not measure model accuracy or reduce uncertainty in the inputs.

Malkoun KO/TKO — 11%Malkoun Decision — 48%Malkoun Submission — 5%Vagaev KO/TKO — 5%Vagaev Decision — 29%Vagaev Submission — 2%

Each square = 1 model percentage point. Jacob Malkoun gold · Abubakar Vagaev orange · color opacity: 100% = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

The weight class

Malkoun has fought his whole career at middleweight; Vagaev built 29 professional fights and three titles at welterweight and makes his first UFC walk at 185. His game — pin, trip, ride — is exactly the kind that extra mass defeats, and Malkoun has already controlled a welterweight moving up (Alhassan, 11:41 of 15:00). This is the core of the 64/36 lean.

Output on the feet

4.85 significant strikes per minute across Malkoun's last three fights against 1.80 for Vagaev, who was out-landed 33–27 by a welterweight. If the clinch race is even, the open-space minutes belong to Malkoun.

Round shape

Malkoun's control rises from 87 to 149 to 171 seconds by round, with 14 of his 36 UFC takedowns in the third. Vagaev's debut control fell from 247 to 92 seconds and he lost the third round on every card. That is why most of Malkoun's 48% decision share is built on Rounds 2 and 3.

Malkoun's Round 1 and the scramblers

Round 1 is where Malkoun absorbs the most and has conceded three of his four UFC takedowns, and the two opponents who spent real time on top of him — Allen and Meerschaert — got there by reversing him. Vagaev's best UFC round was an opening round of fence control. This keeps Vagaev's decision share at 29%.

Pedigree against durability

29 professional fights, six 25-minute wins and eleven decision wins since his last finish make Vagaev hard to beat clearly on the cards — and very unlikely to finish anyone. Against that, three knockout losses and a hurt third round in July tilt the finish equity to Malkoun: 16 finishes to 7 in the model, with 77 fights in 100 going the distance.

Fight Scripts

0%
of simulations

The Middleweight Grind

Malkoun survives a contested first round, boxes Vagaev at range where the debut numbers say he cannot keep up, and takes over Rounds 2 and 3 with chain wrestling and top control — the Alhassan template against a better wrestler. A 29-28 or 30-27 decision, and the single most likely outcome.

Scripted outcomes for Jacob Malkoun vs Abubakar Vagaev — how each version of this fight unfolds.

Jacob Malkoun win probability
0%
11%
48%
5%
KO/TKODECSUB

  • Prices Vagaev's three career knockout losses, the hurt third round in July and Malkoun's ground strikes — a third of his Round 2 and Round 3 output lands on the ground — tempered by a modest knockdown rate: one UFC knockdown in nine fights.

  • The largest single outcome. Seven of his ten career wins are decisions, six of his nine UFC bouts went fifteen minutes, and his control and takedown rates peak in Round 3. The likeliest card is 29-28 after a contested first round.

  • A jiu-jitsu black belt with five UFC attempts (three against Finney) against an opponent who was mounted and threatened three times in his last round — held low because Malkoun has no UFC submission wins.

Abubakar Vagaev win probability
0%
5%
29%
KO/TKODECSUB

  • No knockout win since 2017, but Malkoun was stopped in 18 seconds on his debut, and the early clinch exchanges are where a clean shot can land.

  • Each of his last eleven wins came on the scorecards, a debut won by banking an early wrestling round, and a Round 1 in which Malkoun is at his most vulnerable. Winning Rounds 1 and 2 at the fence is a genuine path.

  • One career submission, in 2014, against a black belt who has never been submitted.

Projected Scorecards

How the model scores each round
R1
Even
R2
Jacob
R3
Jacob
29-28 Malkoun
Vagaev takes or splits the clinch-heavy first round, Malkoun takes Rounds 2 and 3 on output and control
Most likely card if it goes the distance — the model sends 48 of its 77 decisions to Malkoun
30-27 Malkoun
Malkoun keeps the first round at range and is never pinned
The clean version of Malkoun's decision path
29-28 Vagaev
Vagaev banks Rounds 1 and 2 at the fence and survives Round 3, as he did in July
His main path — 29 of the model's 77 decisions

Model and price

Jacob Malkoun

Insufficient price data
Model win probability
64%
Fair odds
-178
Reference quote
—
Fair decimal odds
1.56
Estimated EV
—
Edge vs no-vig market
—

Abubakar Vagaev

Insufficient price data
Model win probability
36%
Fair odds
+178
Reference quote
—
Fair decimal odds
2.78
Estimated EV
—
Edge vs no-vig market
—

EV uses the displayed price: probability × decimal odds − 1. Edge is a percentage-point difference from a proportionally de-vigged, same-book pair. A dash means that comparison is unavailable.

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Fair odds are the break-even price under this estimate, not a recommended entry price. Model uncertainty can erase a small edge.

What price would change the calculation? · Jacob Malkoun

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Required decimal price: 1.57 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

What price would change the calculation? · Abubakar Vagaev

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Required decimal price: 2.78 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

Original analyst price notes

These notes describe the original analysis and may refer to older prices.

The model's strongest call is "fight goes the distance" at 77% (fair −335): both men win mostly on the cards and Vagaev has not stopped anyone since 2017, so anything better than about −300 is value by these numbers. Malkoun on the moneyline is a bet at −178 or better — if the 25-4 record and the ACA belts pull the market toward even money, Malkoun is the side. Malkoun by decision (model 48%, fair +108) is the method prop the model likes most at plus money. Vagaev by decision at +245 is fair rather than generous; avoid Vagaev inside the distance at anything shorter than +1329.

Conviction
0
5/10

Editorial confidence in the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

A real lean on weight class, Octagon depth, striking output and the third round — capped at 5 because Vagaev's entire UFC record is one fifteen-minute fight at a different weight, which could understate him as easily as overstate him; because Malkoun has struggled twice against opponents who could reverse and ride him; and because Vagaev's 29-fight pedigree includes six 25-minute wins over top regional opposition. Lean: Jacob Malkoun.

What backs the lean

  • A natural 185-pounder against a welterweight's first UFC middleweight fight — with a precedent: 11:41 of control against Alhassan, a welterweight moving up, in 2021.

  • 4.85 significant strikes per minute across his last three fights against 1.80; Vagaev was out-landed 33–27 by a welterweight in his debut.

  • The third round: Malkoun's control peaks at 171 seconds and 14 of his 36 UFC takedowns come there, while Vagaev lost his only UFC third round, mounted and facing three submission attempts.

  • Durability: one UFC knockdown absorbed, six years ago, against three career knockout losses for Vagaev and a hurt third round in July.

What limits it

  • 29 professional fights, three titles and six 25-minute wins — a level of experience Malkoun has never faced across the cage.

  • Malkoun's Round 1: the round in which he concedes most of his takedowns and absorbs most of his strikes, and Vagaev's best UFC round.

  • Allen and Meerschaert both spent more than three minutes on top of Malkoun by reversing him; a clinch-and-trip wrestler can do the same.

  • Eleven decision wins since his last finish in 2017: Vagaev knows how to bank close rounds, and a 29-28 either way is the most likely shape of this fight.

Final Assessment

In roughly 64 of 100 simulations, Jacob Malkoun makes this a middleweight fight. Most often he survives a contested opening round, boxes Vagaev at range where the debut numbers say Vagaev cannot keep up, and takes over Rounds 2 and 3 with the chain wrestling and top control that peak late in his fights — a 29-28 or 30-27 decision (48%). Less often, the smaller man tires under the weight, gives up position the way he did to Izagakhmaev, and Malkoun finishes with ground strikes (11%) or a choke (5%).

In the other 36, Abubakar Vagaev wins the fight his whole career is built on. He beats Malkoun to the clinch, pins him to the fence, trips him and rides out Round 1 as he did in July, then banks a clinch-heavy second round with knees and body work and survives the late push — a narrow decision (29%) for a man whose last eleven wins all came on the scorecards. Rarely, something clean lands in the first exchanges the way it did in Malkoun's 2020 debut (5%), or a scramble ends in a submission (2%).

Malkoun has the weight, the output, the Octagon depth and the rounds that decide close fights. Vagaev has the pedigree, the clinch, the height and the one round in which Malkoun is most vulnerable. On October 24 in Abu Dhabi — six years to the day after his 18-second debut loss in the same city — the model takes Jacob Malkoun, most likely on the cards, and treats "fight goes the distance" as the most reliable number on the board.

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