Jeremiah Wells vs Myktybek Orolbai
Welterweight Bout • UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry
Saturday, August 15, 2026 • Xfinity Mobile Arena, Philadelphia
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Jeremiah Wells
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Myktybek Orolbai
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Jeremiah Wells
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-01 | Themba Gorimbo | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-02-10 | Max Griffin | L | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-08-05 | Carlston Harris | L | Technical Submission - Anaconda (R3, 1:50) |
| 2023-04-22 | Matthew Semelsberger | W | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2022-06-18 | Court McGee | W | KO/TKO - Punch (R1, 1:34) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Myktybek Orolbai
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-14 | Chris Curtis | W | Decision - Unanimous (19 TD) (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-11-22 | Jack Hermansson | W | KO/TKO - Overhand Right (R1, 2:46) |
| 2025-06-21 | Tofiq Musayev | W | Submission - Kimura (R1, 4:35) |
| 2024-10-26 | Mateusz Rebecki | L | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-05-04 | Elves Brener | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (46 vs 50) and Grappling Composite (58 vs 66) — all estimated from public per-fight data. Both men are grappling-first welterweights, so the technical percentiles sit only six points apart; the fight's real separation lives in the Cardio Score below, where eleven years favor Orolbai.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Visual comparison of key performance metrics between both fighters
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Jeremiah Wells Key Advantages
Wells's 0.44 knockdown average, 38% KO rate and five career knockouts are real, fight-ending pop for a grappler — and they meet the one crack in Orolbai's armor. Orolbai walks forward to get to his wrestling, defending at just ~49% and absorbing ~3.35 strikes per minute; he wears leather to get inside. Wells starched the respected Warlley Alves in 30 seconds and the granite-chinned Court McGee for a Performance of the Night. A clean counter as Orolbai presses in is the single fastest way this fight ends, and it is the entire reason a 39-year-old underdog is genuinely live.
Wells is exceptionally hard to hit — his 1.28 significant strikes absorbed per minute is the best absorption figure in the fight, far below the welterweight norm. The volume Orolbai relies on to bank rounds may simply not land as cleanly as it does against his usual opposition, letting Wells keep rounds low-event, close and ugly — exactly the kind of fight that produces the split decisions he has won. And across eighteen professional fights no one has ever knocked Wells out; his lone stoppage loss is a single submission. Orolbai's overhand-right power is unlikely to find the quick highlight it found against Hermansson.
Wells is not merely a takedown-defender: 3.06 takedowns per 15 minutes at 46% accuracy is an active offensive wrestling game — nearly double the welterweight norm — and Orolbai's takedown defense (~40%, largely untested because he is almost always the aggressor) is the softest number on his sheet. Wells can plausibly get on top himself, exactly as he did on Carlston Harris for two rounds, and impose his own control and ground-and-pound (44% of his strikes land on the mat). Layer on a 39-year-old Renzo Gracie Philadelphia black belt fighting essentially at home, in his seventh Octagon appearance, and the veteran owns a real composure-and-comfort edge over a man stepping up in pedigree.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Orolbai's pressure and level-changes get him to the mat repeatedly as Wells's 50% takedown defense gives way, the rounds pile up on control, and the veteran is out-pointed 30-27 the way Chris Curtis was under nineteen takedowns. Wells respects the wrestling too much, becomes passive, and loses the low-event rounds on Orolbai's activity without ever landing the power shot he needs — or his own takedown attempts get stuffed and reversed, handing Orolbai top position and the exact grind Wells wanted to avoid.
The fight reaches Round 3 close, Wells's tank and scramble-sharpness dip against the eleven-year-younger man, and the never-finished grappler finds the late submission — a replay of the anaconda choke Carlston Harris used to take his back at 1:50 of the third after Wells had led two rounds. Wells's lone career stoppage loss is exactly this, and Orolbai — a six-time submission finisher with kimuras and neck cranks — is tailor-made to walk through the one documented door in the veteran's armor.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Wells's entire finishing history and his freshest tank live in Rounds 1–2, so he should make Orolbai pay for every forward step with the power that has never failed to hurt people. The key is to counter the pressure, not chase it: use the elite 1.28-SApM defense, stay compact, let Orolbai walk in, and time the overhand or uppercut as he changes levels. His freshest, most dangerous window is also his only guaranteed one — he must strike first, before the younger man's pace and takedown volume take over.
If Orolbai shoots into that ~40% takedown defense, Wells should reverse, get on top, and impose his own 3.06-TD/15 wrestling and ground-and-pound — flipping the Curtis script. He does not need volume; he needs the harder, cleaner moments and visible control to win the low-event rounds the way he beat Themba Gorimbo and Matthew Semelsberger. Above all he must protect the neck and the late scramble: the Harris loss is the cautionary film, so he stays disciplined in transitions, never gives up the back chasing a finish, and refuses to fade into Round 3.
🚀 Myktybek Orolbai Key Advantages
This is the fight's central weapon. Orolbai just landed nineteen takedowns in a single welterweight bout — the UFC welterweight record — against a legitimate opponent in Chris Curtis, and his ~5.4 takedowns per 15 minutes sit on a different tier from anything Wells has faced. Against Wells's below-average 50% takedown defense, that volume is the most reliable path to banking rounds, controlling the fight's location, and dragging a 39-year-old into the grind. He does not need to finish — he needs to bury Wells in the minutes, and the wrestling is the shovel.
The age gap is the loudest honest number in the fight. Orolbai is 28, never finished, never worn down, and demonstrably able to sustain a suffocating grappling pace into Round 3 — while Wells's two cautionary results both came in the back half of fights, the exact territory Orolbai owns. His finishing is genuinely multi-modal (seven KOs, six submissions), and crucially Wells's only career stoppage loss is a submission: the younger grappler, who finishes with kimuras and neck cranks, is built to exploit the single documented way Wells has been stopped. Momentum, physicality and youth all point the same direction.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
He presses forward carelessly behind a ~49% striking defense and walks onto the counter that starched Warlley Alves and Court McGee — his first career finish loss, in the round he is most aggressive. Orolbai has never been finished, but he has also never shared a cage with a 38%-KO, 0.44-knockdown power puncher who barely gets hit back. Against a 1.28-SApM counter man, every forward step to set up the takedown is a step into the one weapon that can rewrite the night before his volume and wrestling compound.
Wells's elite 1.28-SApM defense frustrates the volume, and his own 3.06-TD/15 offense punishes Orolbai's untested ~40% takedown defense: the veteran gets on top, lands the ground-and-pound that accounts for 44% of his strikes, and the black belt hunts a submission of his own. And even in a slow decision Orolbai expects to win, the split-decision variance that already bit him against Mateusz Rebecki can strike again in a close, ugly fight in the challenger's home city of Philadelphia.
📋 Likely Gameplan
The takedown is the whole plan. Orolbai should test Wells's 50% takedown defense from the opening minute, bank control time, and make the veteran carry weight and defend his hips for fifteen minutes. He uses forward movement and combinations to walk Wells to the fence, then level-changes — accepting that some leather comes back and trusting the never-been-finished chin. Respect the power without freezing: don't walk in a straight line onto the counter, angle in and change levels off the jab to neutralize the one weapon that can end his night.
Orolbai should lean on the eleven-year age gap and escalate the pace into Round 3 the way he did against Curtis, drowning a 39-year-old in the minutes where Wells has faded before (Harris, Griffin). In every scramble and every back-take he threatens the choke or kimura — Wells's lone finish loss is a submission, so make him fight that memory. Don't try to out-snipe the power puncher: be the fresher, busier, more durable man, let the takedown volume bank the rounds, and let the late scramble deliver the finish the Harris fight proved is available.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🪞The Frame Mirror — A Fight Decided Off the Tape
Most marquee matchups turn on a physical gap. This one erases it: identical 74-inch reach, a one-inch height difference, and two grappling-first welterweights who do their damage in the same close-quarters real estate. Neither man is the "long" fighter and neither can range the other out, so the fight is decided by everything the tape does not show — age, pace, activity, and the specific texture of each man's finishing. That is why the eleven-year gap and the takedown-volume gap dominate the read: they are the only large numbers left standing once the reach columns cancel. The question is not whether Wells can hurt Orolbai — he can — but whether he can do it before the younger man's pace and record wrestling grind him down. This is a race between the fight clock and the career clock at once.
🎯Technical Breakdown — The Grappling Axis
The table splits along a clean axis. Wells owns the efficiency and durability markers — a division-low 1.28 SApM, documented KO power (0.44 knockdowns, 38% KO rate), a never-been-KO'd chin, and the higher submission rate (~1.3 Sub/15 as a BJJ black belt). Orolbai owns the volume, pace and youth markers — more striking output, an elite ~5.4-TD/15 engine that set the welterweight single-bout record (19 vs. Curtis), and eleven fewer years. The unusual wrinkle is that both men carry below-average takedown defense (Wells 50%, Orolbai ~40%) and above-average takedown offense, so the mat may swing both ways — but Orolbai's takedown volume is on a different tier. The efficient veteran can win a moment; the relentless younger grappler is favored to win the minutes.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Three battles decide it: Wells's early power against Orolbai's hittable, forward-pressing entries; the takedown war where both defenses are porous but Orolbai's volume is historic; and Wells's durability under the grind in the championship-adjacent minutes. The cardio gap is the single widest honest number in the analysis — an estimated Wells score of ~52, a deliberate, low-output veteran tank at 39, against Orolbai's ~72, an eleven-year-younger engine that landed nineteen takedowns over fifteen minutes without fading. Rounds 1–2 are Wells's kingdom, where every UFC finish he owns has come and where his own wrestling can flip a takedown-porous opponent. But if the fight arrives at Round 3 even, the read tilts hard toward Orolbai — the never-finished grappler grinds out the decider or finds the late submission Harris already showed is available.
🏁Final Prediction
The single most likely outcome is Myktybek Orolbai by Decision (31%) — the Curtis/Brener blueprint of banking rounds on record-setting takedown volume against a low-output (2.35 SLpM) veteran whose recent split results say he can be out-worked over fifteen minutes. His 18% submission path is elevated above a generic figure specifically because Wells's only career stoppage loss is a submission, and Orolbai finishes with kimuras and neck cranks; his 15% KO/TKO blends the Hermansson overhand with ground-and-pound. Wells's upset lane is genuinely live: his 14% KO/TKO is his most probable single path — legitimate one-shot power on a forward-pressing, ~49%-defense opponent in the Round 1–2 window — with a disciplined steal-the-splits decision (13%) and a black-belt scramble submission (9%) behind it. If Wells is going to win, he must do it in the first ten minutes; Orolbai wins most versions of the last five.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 18% | Implied: 18.0% (targets Wells's lone finish-loss door)
GOOD VALUE
Model: 31% | Implied: 31.0% (the anchor — his single most likely outcome, the Curtis blueprint)
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 14% | Implied: 14.0% (the live-dog lottery — his ever-present power equalizer)
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Underprices Orolbai's submission path – The public line reads Orolbai as a "wrestle-to-a-decision" fighter and prices his sub cheaply, ignoring six career submissions aimed at the single documented way Wells has been finished (the Harris anaconda).
- • Undervalues the takedown engine – A record-setting ~5.4 TD/15 (19 vs. Curtis) over a 50%-TDD, low-output 39-year-old is the decision engine, not a coin-flip.
- • Over-discounts Wells's power – A 0.44-KD, 38%-KO, never-been-KO'd veteran with elite 1.28-SApM defense is a live, ever-present equalizer against a ~49%-defense presser, so Wells's KO/TKO carries dog value.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Jeremiah Wells
His most probable path — one-shot power in the R1–R2 window vs a forward-pressing target
The disciplined, low-event, steal-the-splits version — hard against record takedown volume
A genuine BJJ-black-belt figure — 4 career subs, ~1.3 Sub/15 — if he reverses to top
💥Outcome Distribution - Myktybek Orolbai
Most likely outcome — record takedown volume buries a fading 39-year-old
Elevated — kimuras and neck cranks aimed at Wells's lone finish-loss door
Standing power (the Hermansson overhand) plus ground-and-pound off his volume takedowns
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Jeremiah Wells
- • First 10 minutes: Highest KO equity, before Orolbai's pace and takedown volume take over.
- • Counter the pressure: Elite 1.28-SApM defense times the overhand as Orolbai changes levels.
- • Flip the wrestling: 3.06 TD/15 offense reverses the shot and steals the low-event rounds.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Myktybek Orolbai
- • Record wrestling: ~5.4 TD/15 (19 vs. Curtis) banks control time against 50% TDD.
- • Eleven years fresher: No documented fade; the pace compounds into Round 3.
- • Late scramble: The kimura/neck-crank threat targets Wells's lone finish-loss door.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Clear lean to Orolbai — but Wells's one-shot power and never-been-KO'd chin keep it live
✅Supporting Factors
- • Record-setting takedown volume (19 vs. Curtis; ~5.4 TD/15) vs 50% TDD
- • Eleven years younger, never finished, no documented fade
- • Multi-modal finishing aimed at Wells's one door (the Harris submission)
- • Momentum — a three-fight tear vs a veteran 1-2 in his last three
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Wells's genuine one-shot power (14% KO — his most probable path) vs a ~49%-defense presser
- • Best absorption in the fight (1.28 SApM) + a chin never cracked in 18 fights
- • Active wrestling offense (3.06 TD/15) vs Orolbai's untested ~40% TDD
- • Experience, composure and a Philadelphia crowd in a dead-even frame
🏁Executive Summary
Across 100 simulations the fight resolves into two competing stories. In roughly 64 of them, Myktybek Orolbai's youth, pace and record-setting wrestling overwhelm a hard-nosed veteran — either by banking rounds on a takedown volume Wells cannot answer (his single most likely outcome, a 31% decision), by finding the late submission that Carlston Harris already proved is available (18%), or by finishing with ground-and-pound off his relentless entries (15%). The arithmetic is the age gap made physical: eleven fresher years, a never-been-finished durability sheet, and a grappling engine that only gets heavier as a 39-year-old's tank empties. In the other 36, Jeremiah Wells reminds Philadelphia why he has never been knocked out — the counter power that starched Warlley Alves and Court McGee landing clean (14% KO, his most probable single method), a disciplined low-event fight where his elite 1.28-SApM defense frustrates the volume and he steals the splits (13%), or a scramble where the black belt reverses to top and finds a submission of his own (9%).
Prediction: Orolbai by Decision most likely (31% probability) through record-setting takedown volume over a low-output 39-year-old; Wells's upset lane is his own KO/TKO (14%) via one-shot power in the first two rounds before the grind takes over. The reach columns cancel, both durability sheets are clean, and the fight is decided by the clock — the fight clock and the career clock at once. If it is long, the numbers and the Harris precedent favor the Kyrgyz grappler.