Kody Steele vs Gauge Young
Lightweight Bout • UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues
Saturday, August 22, 2026 • Golden 1 Center, Sacramento
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Kody Steele
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Gauge Young
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Kody Steele
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | Dom Mar Fan | W | Submission (Heel Hook) (R1, 3:56) |
| 2025-02-08 | Rongzhu | L | Decision (Unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-10-08 | Chasen Blair | W | KO/TKO (R2, 4:07) |
| 2024-04-21 | Alejandro Martinez | W | KO/TKO (R3, 2:09) |
| 2023-09-24 | Nico Echeverry | W | KO/TKO (R2, 3:32) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Gauge Young
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-18 | Thiago Moisés | W | Decision (Split) (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-08-23 | Maheshate | W | Decision (Unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-04-26 | Evan Elder | L | Decision (Unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-12-06 | Eric Grant | W | KO/TKO (Punches) (R2, 0:11) |
| 2024-09-03 | Quillan Salkilld | L | Decision (Unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Estimate-flagged, not database-grade. No analytics profile exists for either man, so these composites are transparent calculations from public UFC-only stats over just 2 (Steele) and 3 (Young) fights — directional only. They rate Young's proven volume ahead of Steele's ugly one-fight striking line, and cannot fully price Steele's elite Combat Jiu-Jitsu ceiling.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Visual comparison of key performance metrics between both fighters
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Kody Steele Key Advantages
Young's only career finish loss is a Round-3 armbar — and Steele is a Combat Jiu-Jitsu world champion whose UFC win came by heel hook off a scramble. That means fight-ending submissions from top position, from scrambles, and from leg entanglements that don't require winning a wrestling match first. Against a fighter with a documented tap, that multi-entry submission game is the single highest-ceiling weapon in the cage, pointed squarely at the one proven vulnerability on Young's record.
Four regional KOs and a 0.53 UFC knockdown average say Steele hits genuinely hard for a grappler, and he has never been knocked down or finished — he absorbed 126 significant strikes across the Rongzhu slugfest and never wobbled. That durability lets him walk into range to initiate the grappling, and it keeps a live puncher's chance in every pocket exchange even in the standing phase Young is supposed to own. His crude power is capped only by the fact that Young, too, has never been knocked out.
Moisés already showed the film: Young can be chain-taken-down and controlled early. Steele's explosive sub-minute entry on Dom Mar Fan proves that when he commits, his takedowns land at UFC level regardless of an ugly 13% aggregate accuracy — that number reflects a two-fight sample in which he chose to strike against Rongzhu. And he carries the higher finishing ceiling — one UFC-level finish to Young's zero — so in a close fight he is the man more likely to end it rather than out-point it.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
The nightmare replays his debut: Steele settles for striking, gets out-landed roughly two-to-one by a higher-volume opponent, and drops a clear decision without ever seriously threatening the takedown. Young is a busier, sharper version of the Rongzhu problem, and the film already says Steele loses a pure kickboxing match. If discipline slips and he trades, his crude 33%-accuracy striking simply can't win rounds against Young's output.
His entries stall against Young's 77% takedown defense — which visibly improves as fights wear on — the bout stays at range, and the crude striking can't bank rounds against that volume. At 31 to Young's 25, the later rounds then slip away on the cards as the fresher man's output compounds. This is the slow, front-running version of the fight, the one the Rongzhu tape and the Moisés adjustment both say belongs to Young.
📋 Likely Gameplan
The entire plan is discipline: do not get lured into the Rongzhu-style brawl. Close distance to shoot or clinch, not to trade — every second spent kickboxing is a second in Young's phase, where the film says Steele loses. Use the KO threat to make Young respect the hands and open the level change, but treat the punch as bait for the takedown, never the goal. His equity is front-loaded, so impose the mat early and often.
Steele's leglock game means he doesn't need dominant control — a scramble, an entanglement, a heel hook. Turn every grappling exchange into a submission hunt aimed at the armbar door Young already walked through once against Bobby Lee. And finish early: his win equity is front-loaded, so the longer it stays standing and the deeper it goes, the more it favors the younger, busier man on the cards.
🚀 Gauge Young Key Advantages
Young's 6.32 significant strikes landed per minute and 52% accuracy dwarf Steele's 3.85 and 33%, and Rongzhu already showed the exact film: out-volume Steele, make him strike, win the decision. Young is a higher-volume striker than Rongzhu was. Nearly double the output and materially better accuracy are the two categories that win rounds on the feet, and he owns both — the standing minutes are lopsided on paper in his favor.
His single best skill is the exact tool this matchup demands — 77% takedown defense that tightened as the Moisés fight wore on. Stack on youth (25 to Steele's 31), three full-distance UFC fights and a documented tendency to win the championship rounds, and the fresher man banks the late minutes if it stays standing. His recent wins over Moisés and Maheshate also outclass Steele's lone UFC win over a debutant — better opponents, and momentum on a two-fight Octagon streak.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Steele shoots early the way he did against Dom Mar Fan, Young's Round-1 takedown-defense vulnerability shows again before his late-fight defense tightens, and he's heel-hooked or arm-triangled in the scramble — a near-replay of the Bobby Lee armbar, upgraded to a Combat Jiu-Jitsu world champion. Round 1 is where his grappl-ability (per the Moisés fight) and Steele's finishing window overlap most dangerously, and it is the highest-variance frame of the night.
Young's guard is leaky (49% striking defense), and the danger isn't Steele's volume — it's a single bomb landing clean from a genuine KO threat, something his output-based game has no answer for. The alternative bad night is the grind: he wins the striking but can't stop the takedowns often enough, and a control-heavy Steele steals rounds on the mat even without the finish, flipping the phase that was supposed to be his.
📋 Likely Gameplan
The 77% takedown defense is the number that has to hold, especially in Round 1 where Steele — and history, via Moisés — says Young is most vulnerable. Don't linger on the mat with a Combat Jiu-Jitsu world champion: sprawl, deny the leg entanglement, and get back to open space fast. The whole grappling phase belongs to Steele, so the goal is not to win it but to refuse it and return the fight to the feet.
Run the Rongzhu blueprint — high output, keep it long, make Steele strike, bank the rounds. Respect the power, not the boxing: stay disciplined defensively even while pressing the pace, because the only real threat standing is one clean shot. Then lean on youth and proven cardio to win the championship rounds, and never turn your back or over-extend in a scramble — every wild exchange is a coin flip he doesn't need to flip.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🕳️Five UFC Fights Between Them
The defining caveat is sample size: Kody Steele has fought just 2 UFC bouts, Gauge Young 3. No analytics-database profile exists for either man, so every striking and grappling rate here is a transparent, estimate-flagged calculation from public UFC-only stats — volatile figures easily distorted by a single performance. Steele's ugly striking line (33% accuracy, 6.20 absorbed per minute) is essentially one fight: the 126-59 Rongzhu loss. We say so plainly and price it into a deliberately low conviction. This is a genuinely data-thin 🔴 High-Risk matchup, and the error bars are wide.
🪞Grappler vs Striker: Whose Phase?
Physically these two are a near-perfect mirror — identical 5'9" height, a single inch of reach and leg reach nudging Steele's way — so style, not leverage, decides everything. It is the classic equation with a twist: Steele is not a volume wrestler (1.07 TD/15) and Young is not a passive striker (77% takedown defense, improving). Young owns the standing phase — nearly double the volume, better accuracy, the Rongzhu blueprint. Steele owns the grappling phase and the fight's single most dangerous mismatch: a world-champion heel-hook game aimed at Young's lone armbar loss. Whoever imposes their phase wins.
🧩The Rongzhu Fork & the Clock
Two patterns decide it. First, Steele's discipline: he struck with Rongzhu and was out-landed 126-59; he grappled Dom Mar Fan and heel-hooked him inside a round — same fighter, opposite results, decided by which game he chose to play. Second, the clock: Steele's win equity is front-loaded into Round 1's takedown-and-scramble window, where Young (per the Moisés fight) is most grappl-able, while Young's equity grows with every standing minute after — youth, rising volume, and a documented late surge. The grappler must impose the mat early; the striker must survive it and let volume and youth do the rest.
🏁Final Prediction
Young's single largest win path is the decision (40%) — the volume, 77% takedown defense and three-round cardio that beat Maheshate and Moisés — ahead of a late-accumulation KO/TKO (12%) and a near-token submission (3%, since he has no offensive sub game). Steele's most repeatable weapon is the submission (23%): a world-champion heel-hook/arm-lock game pointed at Young's one documented finish loss, ahead of his crude one-shot KO/TKO (13%) and a weak decision path (9%). Across the fight: KO/TKO 25%, Submission 26%, Decision 49% — it stays inside the distance only about 51% of the time, because Young's likeliest single outcome is a decision win.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 23% | Fair: +335
GOOD VALUE
Model: 40% | Fair: +150
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: ~14% | Fair: +614
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Underprices the submission – Steele's world-champion heel-hook game aimed at Young's lone armbar loss; a 23% path the public will likely fade.
- • The phase battle is the fight – Young's 77% takedown defense vs Steele's takedown-and-scramble entries decides which man's numbers get to matter.
- • Thin, noisy samples – Just five UFC bouts between them (Steele 2, Young 3) means estimate-flagged stats and wide error bars.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Kody Steele
Largest path — CJJ world champ's heel-hook vs Young's armbar loss
Real one-shot power (0.53 KD, 4 regional KOs) on a leaky guard
Weakest path — out-pointing a higher-volume striker invites Rongzhu
💥Outcome Distribution - Gauge Young
Biggest single outcome — volume + 77% TDD + three-round cardio
Accumulation over 15 high-volume minutes, capped by Steele's chin
Near-token — no offensive submission game (0.00 sub rate)
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
🕸️Late-Fight Threat - Gauge Young
- • Survive the storm: Get through Steele's early takedown-and-scramble window.
- • Stuff the shots: 77% takedown defense, tightening as the fight wears on.
- • Win deep water: Youth, volume and cardio bank the championship rounds.
⚡Early-Fight Edge - Kody Steele
- • Shoot early: The Dom Mar Fan blitz — a takedown or scramble in Round 1.
- • Hunt the tap: Heel hooks and arm-locks aimed at Young's lone finish loss.
- • Front-loaded finish: Close early, before youth and volume take over.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
A narrow, low-conviction lean toward the younger, higher-volume man — Young's phase is likelier, but the samples are thin
✅Supporting Factors
- • Higher volume (6.32 vs 3.85 SLpM) and accuracy (52% vs 33%)
- • 77% takedown defense — improving late — keeps it standing
- • Younger (25 vs 31) with proven three-round UFC cardio
- • Better recent wins (Moisés, Maheshate) and current momentum
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Thin UFC samples (Steele 2, Young 3) — estimate-flagged stats
- • Steele's elite CJJ/heel-hook aims at Young's lone armbar loss
- • Steele's real power (0.53 KD) and granite chin keep it live
- • Lean inverts if Steele imposes the mat early (Dom Mar Fan)
🏁Executive Summary
We run 100 simulations and see two clocks. In roughly 55 of them, Gauge Young's volume and freshness carry the night — most often (40) by stuffing the takedowns, running his high-output striking over three rounds, and banking the decision the way he did against Moisés and Maheshate, with a smaller slice (12) of late-accumulation TKOs and a token (3) of scramble submissions. He is the sharper, busier, younger striker with the 77% takedown defense this matchup demands. In the other 45, Kody Steele's grappling rewrites it — most often (23) by dragging Young into a scramble and finding the heel hook or arm-lock that Young has already been finished with, less often (13) by landing his crude but real power on a leaky guard, and rarely (9) by grinding out a control-based decision. On five UFC fights between them, every number here is estimate-flagged — the widest error bars in our series.
Prediction: Gauge Young at 55%, with his decision (40%) the single largest path; Kody Steele's live route is the submission (23%) his world-champion heel-hook game makes real against a man with a documented armbar loss. What we believe with honest, limited conviction is that this is a race between Steele's takedown-and-submission and Young's 77% takedown defense — if the grappler imposes the mat, his submission game beats a fighter built to be out-pointed; if the striker keeps it standing, his output and youth win the rounds. The metrics give Young the modest edge in the phase most likely to occur, but the samples are too thin, and Steele's grappling ceiling too high, to call it more than a nervous, narrow lean toward the younger man.