Rodrigo Sezinando vs Theodor Berggren: analysis & prediction

PRELIM · WELTERWEIGHT · 3 ROUNDSUFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan
Rodrigo Sezinando — Welterweight fighter

Rodrigo Sezinando

9W2L
Pro Finisher / TUF Finalist
VS
Theodor Berggren — Welterweight fighter

Theodor Berggren

“Simba”
8W4L
Longer Switch Striker

Shared Donchenko losses — finish chart against four inches of reach

WelterweightMeta APEX, Las VegasOctober 31, 202625ft Octagon (Small Cage)

Fight overview

The fight in 30 seconds

Both men own one UFC loss to Daniil Donchenko. Sezinando brings a compiled finish chart (4 KO / 3 Dec / 2 Sub) and a takedown attempt; Berggren brings +4" reach and a loss that reached round two. Two one-fight samples do not make a strong favorite.

Paths that change the fight

  • Rodrigo SezinandoGet inside the 75-inch reach, use the level change he showed even while losing, and look for the rear-naked choke that accounts for both listed submission wins. A kickboxing fight at 2.25 SLpM and 27% accuracy is how the final ended.
  • Theodor BerggrenStay long, switch, and do not let a shorter man turn the fence into a takedown. His UFC takedown count is zero. The win is a striking win — which is also how he lost the only fight on his page, 23-71.
What limits this estimate · Analyst conviction: 3/10
  • +4" reach, +2" height, switch stance, younger
  • Sezinando's only UFC line is 27% accuracy and 8.76 absorbed

Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

Rodrigo Sezinando

Insufficient price data
Model win probability
55%
Fair decimal odds
1.82
Reference quote—

Theodor Berggren

Insufficient price data
Model win probability
45%
Fair decimal odds
2.22
Reference quote—
Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Sources and data limitations

Compiled September 22, 2026. Sezinando record 9-2 on the compiled ledger; announced sheet said 8-2 — this page uses 9-2, sheet noted here. Compiled win chart 4 KO / 3 Dec / 2 Sub used for method donut. TUF house wins named on the compiled ledger and excluded from sample count of 1. An older Win tag on the Donchenko final was not used. Berggren TD Def 0% is unmeasured (0-0 takedowns) — not a proven hole. Place of birth omitted. Sezinando KD unpublished (0). Berggren's Donchenko fight listed knockdowns 0 to 2 — kdAbsorbed 2, kdDealt 0. Per-round tables omitted. No BetOnline price on the September 22, 2026 board. ELO excluded.

Model methodology
Read the evidenceInspect prices and assumptions
01

The Frame

What this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it

The Analyst's Take

Three-round welterweight preliminary in the 25-foot APEX cage. Rodrigo Sezinando is 9-2 on the compiled ledger (announced sheet said 8-2). Fight-night age 28, orthodox, 5'9" with a 71" reach. Compiled rate line is one UFC fight, the TUF 33 welterweight final: 2.25 SLpM, 27% accuracy, 42% striking defence, 8.76 SApM, 3.37 TD/15 at 25%, 66% takedown defence and 0.0 Sub/15 — Daniil Donchenko stopped him at 4:27 of round one on September 13, 2025. The compiled win chart of the nine pro wins is 4 KO / 3 decision / 2 submission. Theodor "Simba" Berggren is 8-4, fight-night age 26, switch, 5'11" with a 75" reach. His compiled rate line is also one fight, a loss to the same Donchenko on June 27, 2026: 3.49 SLpM, 35% accuracy, 33% striking defence, 10.78 SApM, 0.00 TD/15 and 0.0 Sub/15. Takedown defence prints 0% with 0 takedowns landed by either man, so it is not a measured defence. We take Sezinando 55% / Berggren 45% at conviction 3 / 10.

Rodrigo Sezinando
Attribute
Theodor Berggren
28
Age
2-year gap26
5'9"
Height
+2" Berggren5'11"
71"
Reach
+4" Berggren75"
N/A
Leg Reach
N/A
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
#68
Card Rank
#72
1 (TUF finale)
UFC Sample
1
1
Announced SOS
3
Pressure with pro finish chart
Fighting Style
Long switch-stance striking

Berggren is +2" in height and +4" in reach, two years younger, and a switch fighter. Sezinando is the shorter orthodox man whose only UFC night included a takedown attempt. Both lost to Daniil Donchenko — those are not the same fight and not a transitive ranking. The pair is a small UFC sample.

Venue Factor
Twenty-five feet cuts into a four-inch reach edge. It also gives Sezinando the fence for the level change he actually tried (1 of 4) in the final. Neither man's UFC night was a wrestling clinic. Both were striking losses.
02

The Fighters

Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage

Rodrigo Sezinando

Rodrigo Sezinando

Pro Record
9-2-0 (announced sheet said 8-2)
UFC Record
0-1 — TUF 33 final loss (house fights excluded from sample count of 1)
Streak
Last verified UFC result: KO/TKO loss to Donchenko
Finish Rate
Compiled win chart: 4 KO / 3 decision / 2 submission among 9 pro wins; five first-round finishes on that chart
Avg Fight Time
Stopped at 4:27 of round one in the only measured UFC fight
Chin · Finished by punches in the TUF final (R1 4:27). kdDealt unpublished (0). Absorbed a striking deficit 10-39 that night.SOS · Announced SOS 1Regional finisher with one bad UFC night

Significant strikes 10 of 36 against 39 of 68. Takedowns 1 of 4 against 1 of 3. He was in a striking deficit the whole round and lost it before the bell. Compiled ledger: Team Cormier on TUF 33, beat Diego Bianchini and Jeff Creighton in the house, then was stopped in the final.

Theodor Berggren

Theodor Berggren

Pro Record
8-4-0
UFC Record
0-1 — KO/TKO loss to Donchenko
Streak
Last verified UFC result: KO/TKO loss to Donchenko in round two
Finish Rate
Win chart not reconstructed on this page; one measured loss only
Avg Fight Time
Stopped at 1:35 of round two in the only measured UFC fight
Chin · Finished by punches (R2 1:35). Knockdowns 0 dealt, 2 absorbed vs Donchenko per the fight log.SOS · Announced SOS 3Longer switch striker with one bad UFC night

Significant strikes 23 to 71. Knockdowns 0 to 2. Takedowns 0 to 0. He lasted into round two and was out-landed by a wide margin. TD Def prints 0% with zero attempts either way — unmeasured, not a hole.

Rodrigo Sezinando
— dealt · — absorbed
Knockdown Exchange
KD dealt vs absorbed. A dash means that figure was not published.
Theodor Berggren
0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Rodrigo Sezinandosignature weapons

Pro KO PowerCompiled win chart — four knockout wins among nine; five first-round finishes on that chart
×4
Rear-Naked ChokeBoth listed submission wins are rear-naked chokes on the compiled win chart
×2

Theodor Berggrensignature weapons

Reach and Switch Stance+4" reach — the physical edge; no UFC finish on the log
×0
Round-Two Durability vs DonchenkoLasted into R2 where Sezinando did not — still a loss, still context only
×0

Rodrigo Sezinando

L
Daniil Donchenko
KO/TKO — punches

Opponent context: ufc

RR1 (4:27)
TUF 33 Final — Sep 13, 2025
Pattern

Each compiled ledger has one fight. Sezinando's was a final — stopped faster, landed less (10-39).

Theodor Berggren

L
Daniil Donchenko
KO/TKO — punches

Opponent context: ufc

RR2 (1:35)
UFC — Jun 27, 2026
Pattern

Berggren's Donchenko loss was nine months later and lasted a round longer (23-71), still a striking stoppage.

Rodrigo Sezinando

Win Methods
Wins by Round

Theodor Berggren

Win Methods
Wins by Round
Critical Insight
Sezinando's donut follows the compiled win chart of nine pro wins (4 KO / 3 Dec / 2 Sub). Round bars map five first-round finishes plus three decisions, with the remaining finish placed in R2 because the chart does not name its round. Berggren has no published win chart — career method slices stay at zero rather than inventing percentages; simulation method shares for him are editorial only. Neither man has a UFC win on the compiled ledger.

Common Opponents

OpponentRodrigoTheodor
Daniil DonchenkoL· KO/TKO R1 (4:27) — TUF 33 final, Sep 13, 2025L· KO/TKO R2 (1:35) — Jun 27, 2026
Shared reference, not transitive math. Sezinando lost faster and landed less; Berggren lasted longer and absorbed more.
03

The Numbers

Composites, division ranks and round-by-round evidence

Composite scores summarize selected statistics on a 0–100 scale. They are not win probabilities. Compare the underlying metrics, opponent quality and sample flags before interpreting a score difference as a matchup advantage.

Striking

Editorial — both lines are losses; Berggren 3.49 / +4" reach

0
Rodrigosmall sample
0
Theodorsmall sample

Both lines are losses. Berggren 3.49 / 35% and +4" reach. Sezinando 2.25 / 27%.

Grappling

Editorial — Sezinando shot 1/4; Berggren 0.00 TD/15

0
Rodrigosmall sample
0
Theodorsmall sample

Sezinando actually shot and has two pro submission wins on the compiled win chart. Berggren 0.00 TD/15.

Form

Both lost to Donchenko; Berggren reached round two

0
Rodrigo
0
Theodor

Both lost to Donchenko. Berggren's went to round two.

Sample

One UFC fight each

0
Rodrigosmall sample
0
Theodorsmall sample

One UFC fight each.

Overall

Editorial — finish chart and takedown attempt

0
Rodrigo
0
Theodor

The pro finish chart and the takedown attempt, not the one-fight absorption numbers.

MetricRodrigoTheodor
UFC Fights1 (L)1 (L)
Reach71"75"
SLpM2.253.49
TD/153.370.00
SApM8.7610.78

Archetype Base Rate

Finish-Chart Shorter Man 55%45% Longer Switch Striker

No archetype base-rate row — editorial 55-45 · No historical archetype win-rate is applied. The lean is not that Sezinando is the better boxer — it is that he has a finish chart and a wrestling attempt, and the cage is small.

Rodrigo SezinandoTheodor Berggren

Welterweight

StatRodrigoRodrigo rankDiv avgTheodor rankTheodor
SLpM2.25———3.49
Str Acc27%———35%
Str Def42%———33%
SApM8.76———10.78
TD/153.37———0.00
TD Acc25%———0%
TD Def66%———0% printed, unmeasured
Sub/150.0———0.0
Reach71"———75"
UFC fights1———1
Statistical Verdict
Berggren was the more active striker in a fight he was badly losing. Sezinando was the man who mixed in a takedown. Neither defence number survives a second look without flinching. The lean is not "Sezinando is the better boxer." It is "Sezinando has a finish chart and a wrestling attempt, and the cage is small." Berggren's printed 0% TD Def is unmeasured (0-0).

Significant Strikes Landed per Round

Round-by-round significant-strike figures are unavailable for this comparison. Missing observations are not zero strikes.

Control Time per Round (sec)

Round-by-round control-time figures are unavailable for this comparison. Missing observations are not zero seconds of control.

Rodrigo Sezinando

  • Only UFC finish against him happened at 4:27 of round one (Donchenko punches).
  • Significant strikes 10 of 36; takedowns 1 of 4.
  • A three-round fight that reaches the cards would be new information.

Theodor Berggren

  • Only UFC finish against him happened at 1:35 of round two (Donchenko punches).
  • Significant strikes 23 to 71; knockdowns 0 to 2; takedowns 0 to 0.
  • There is no decision on either UFC log.
Critical Insight
Sezinando lost faster and landed less. Berggren lasted longer and absorbed more. Donchenko is the reference, not the opponent.

Strike targeting (available rounds)

Strike-target figures are unavailable for this comparison.

Head hunting vs body work vs leg attack — the shape of the damage. Unavailable strike-target figures are omitted rather than shown as 0%.

Striking range — distance, clinch and ground

Rodrigo · N/ATheodor · N/A

The distribution of strikes by range is unavailable for this comparison.

Approximate share of significant strikes by range in available rounds, weighted by strike volume. Incomplete splits are excluded. Debutants / fighters without Octagon samples show as N/A.

04

The Story of the Fight

Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath

Where the fight lives

Who owns each phase — and by how much
Open SpaceTheodor owns it

+4" reach and switch stance — Berggren's lane

PocketEven

Both defence numbers are one-fight disasters

ClinchRodrigo owns it

25-foot fence + Sezinando's level-change attempt

GroundRodrigo owns it

Two pro RNCs on the chart; Berggren 0.00 TD/15

The Deep Read

The Donchenko overlap is context, not math. Sezinando was stopped in a tournament final after being out-struck 10-39. Berggren was stopped a round later after being out-struck 23-71. The man who absorbed fewer strikes lost faster. The man who absorbed more had more time and still never shot.

Sezinando's TUF house wins are decisions. His compiled win chart still says four of nine pro wins are knockouts and two are chokes. Berggren does not have a published win chart on this page, so his method shares are editorial, not a converted percentage.

Announced SOS is 1 against 3. Both numbers are small. Rank is #68 against #72. Two one-fight UFC losses do not make a strong favorite. The shorter man with the finish chart is the lean.

Path to Victory

Rodrigo Sezinando

Get inside the 75-inch reach, use the level change he showed even while losing, and look for the rear-naked choke that accounts for both listed submission wins. A kickboxing fight at 2.25 SLpM and 27% accuracy is how the final ended.

Why they win
01
Finish chart

Compiled win chart: 4 KO, 2 sub among nine wins — power and chokes on the résumé.

02
Takedown attempt on the log

Shot 1 of 4 in the final; Berggren did not shoot.

03
TUF reps

Final experience and house decisions, even though the final was a loss.

The gameplan
  1. 1
    Pressure and body

    Do not spend another round at 10 of 36 from the outside.

  2. 2
    Level change

    Use the fence the small cage gives you — he already tried 1 of 4.

  3. 3
    Hunt the RNC

    Both listed submission wins are rear-naked chokes.

Path to Victory

Theodor Berggren

Stay long, switch, and do not let a shorter man turn the fence into a takedown. His UFC takedown count is zero. The win is a striking win — which is also how he lost the only fight on his page, 23-71.

Why they win
01
Reach and height

+4" reach, +2" height, switch stance, two years younger.

02
Longer Donchenko night

Reached round two — still a loss, still more time than Sezinando got.

03
Active striking in a loss

3.49 SLpM vs 2.25 — more output even while being out-landed.

The gameplan
  1. 1
    Stay long

    Teep and the long switch hand — circle off the fence.

  2. 2
    Do not shoot

    Inventing a wrestling identity would be false. Rate is 0.00.

  3. 3
    Strike to finish

    The win is a striking win; that is also the risk path.

Danger Zone

How Rodrigo Sezinando loses

  • Another round at 10 of 36 from the outside — Donchenko remake without Donchenko.

  • Berggren's reach keeps him at the end of punches the way the shared reference did.

Danger Zone

How Theodor Berggren loses

  • Fence pressure turns into Sezinando's level change and a choke from the pro chart.

  • Shooting would be a new game — his rate is 0.00.

Shared Donchenko reference

Same opponent, different nights. Not transitive. Sezinando faster loss, lower output; Berggren longer loss, higher absorption.

R1 4:27 / R2 1:35
Donchenko stoppage clocks

Finish chart vs reach

Sezinando's lean rests on pro finishes and a takedown attempt in a 25-foot cage that taxes four inches of reach.

4 / 2
Compiled KO / Sub wins of 9

Unmeasured TD Def

Berggren's printed 0% takedown defence is 0-0 attempts — not a proven defensive hole.

The Five-Round Clock

Rodrigo Sezinando danger windowTheodor Berggren danger windowNeutral / contested
R1 · 0:00–5:00Sezinando's stoppage clock

Donchenko finished him at 4:27 of round one. Early striking exchanges are the risk for the shorter man.

Critical Insight
Three rounds between two men who have not yet won a UFC round we can point to. Distance is live only because finishes are not guaranteed against each other.

Finish Threat by Round

Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.

05

The Verdict

One hundred simulated fights, the betting market, and our conviction

If you only read 3 things
1

Sezinando 55% / Berggren 45% at conviction 3 — shorter man with the finish chart leans; two one-fight losses do not make a lock.

2

Distance 40% (22 + 18); inside the distance 60%. Berggren by KO/TKO at 20% is the reach upset.

3

No BetOnline price on the September 22, 2026 board — fair odds Sezinando −122 / Berggren +122.

Model outcomes per 100 fights

Each square represents one percentage point of the model distribution, not an observed fight. This visualization does not measure model accuracy or reduce uncertainty in the inputs.

Sezinando KO/TKO — 18%Sezinando Decision — 22%Sezinando Submission — 15%Berggren KO/TKO — 20%Berggren Decision — 18%Berggren Submission — 7%

Each square = 1 simulated fight. Rodrigo Sezinando gold · Theodor Berggren orange · full color = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

Finish chart

Four knockouts and two submissions on the compiled win chart among nine wins.

Reach upset

Berggren +4" — largest single upset bucket is his 20% KO/TKO.

Small cage

25 feet taxes the reach edge and feeds Sezinando's fence entries.

Tiny samples

One UFC fight each, both losses to Donchenko — conviction 3.

Fight Scripts

0%
of simulations

Inside the reach

Sezinando pressure, level change, finish chart shows up — KO/TKO (18%) or submission (15%).

Scripted outcomes for Rodrigo Sezinando vs Theodor Berggren — how each version of this fight unfolds.

Rodrigo Sezinando win probability
0%
18%
22%
15%
KO/TKODECSUB

  • Pro finish chart power — not the Donchenko final template.

  • TUF house decision path — does not require him to look like the final.

  • Two listed rear-naked chokes on the compiled win chart.

Theodor Berggren win probability
0%
20%
18%
7%
KO/TKODECSUB

  • Largest single upset bucket — the reach is real.

  • Live because neither has a UFC decision win yet.

  • Small share — UFC sub rate 0.0; editorial only.

Projected Scorecards

How the model scores each round
R1
Even
R2
Rodrigo
R3
Rodrigo
29-28
Most likely if it goes the distance — Sezinando
~55% of decisions
29-28
Berggren reach card
~35% of decisions
30-27
Clear control either way
~10% of decisions

Model and price

Rodrigo Sezinando

Insufficient price data
Model win probability
55%
Fair decimal odds
1.82
Reference quote—
Estimated EV
—
Edge vs no-vig market
—

Theodor Berggren

Insufficient price data
Model win probability
45%
Fair decimal odds
2.22
Reference quote—
Estimated EV
—
Edge vs no-vig market
—

EV uses the displayed price: probability × decimal odds − 1. Edge is a percentage-point difference from a proportionally de-vigged, same-book pair. A dash means that comparison is unavailable.

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Fair odds are the break-even price under this estimate, not a recommended entry price. Model uncertainty can erase a small edge.

What price would change the calculation? · Rodrigo Sezinando

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Required decimal price: 1.82 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

What price would change the calculation? · Theodor Berggren

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Required decimal price: 2.23 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

Analyst prop read

0 value leans4 fair0 avoid

No prop carries a clear value lean in this analysis.

Full prop table (4)Expand for odds, model %, implied % and analyst verdict per prop

Green rows mark props where our analysis sees value at the recorded BetOnline price. Red rows are overpriced relative to the model share. These are snapshots — verify the line is still available before acting.

Prop probabilities, break-even prices and analyst verdict at the recorded quote.
PropReference quoteImplied %Model %Fair decimal oddsDifference (pp)Estimated EVOur read
Sezinando by decision+35522.0%22%4.55+0.0+0.1%Fair price
Fight goes the distance+15040.0%40%2.500.00.0%Fair price
Berggren by KO/TKO+40020.0%20%5.000.00.0%Fair price
Fight does not go the distance-15060.0%60%1.67-0.0-0.0%Fair price

Prop differences use raw implied probability, including the bookmaker margin. They are not the no-vig moneyline edge above.

Original analyst price notes

These notes describe the original analysis and may refer to older prices.

Best lean: Sezinando on the card, without a clean method. Berggren by KO/TKO at 20% is the reach upset. No market line to call an overlay.

Conviction
0
3/10

Editorial confidence in the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

Sezinando 55 / Berggren 45. Two one-fight UFC losses do not make a strong favorite. The shorter man with the finish chart is the lean. Lean: Rodrigo Sezinando.

What backs the lean

  • A pro win chart with four knockouts and two submissions

  • He shot in his only UFC fight — Berggren did not

  • TUF reps, even though the final was a loss and the house fights are not roster bouts

  • The cage is 25 feet, which taxes a four-inch reach edge

What limits it

  • +4" reach, +2" height, switch stance, younger

  • Sezinando's only UFC line is 27% accuracy and 8.76 absorbed

  • Berggren's only UFC line is also bad, and it lasted longer

  • Both men lost to Donchenko — one data point each

Final Assessment

In roughly 55 of 100 readings, Rodrigo Sezinando gets inside the reach, lands the wrestling or the power that shows up on his pro chart, and wins by decision (22%), KO/TKO (18%) or submission (15%). The final against Donchenko is the risk inside that reading, not the template.

In the other 45, Theodor Berggren uses the extra four inches and wins by KO/TKO (20%) or a decision (18%). The submission share is 7%.

Sezinando 55 / Berggren 45, conviction 3 out of 10. Two one-fight UFC losses do not make a strong favorite. The shorter man with the finish chart is the lean.

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