Yana Santos vs Luana Santos – UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan Fight Analytics & Prediction

MAIN CARD · WOMEN'S BANTAMWEIGHT · 3 ROUNDSUFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan

Yana Santos

“Foxy”

17W8L

Clinch Kicker

Luana Santos

11W2L

Judo Grappler

Adjacent ranks, same height — the younger judoka gets the lean

Women's BantamweightMeta APEX, Las VegasOctober 31, 202625ft Octagon (Small Cage)

Fight overview

The fight in 30 seconds

Clinch kicks and volume versus judo throws and submission rate. Same height, adjacent ranks (#6 vs #7), ten years between them. Luana 55 / Yana 45.

Paths that change the fight

Yana SantosKeep the clinch as a striking phase, not a throwing phase. Land the 4.41 per minute, use the extra inch of reach, and make Luana win minutes she would rather spend on a throw.
Luana SantosTurn 51% takedown defence into the mat, threaten the keylock and the choke that beat Lisboa and Agapova, and do not spend three rounds in a kickboxing clinch at 2.53 SLpM.

What limits this estimate · Analyst conviction: 5/10

4.41 SLpM at 57% accuracy, and a 39% clinch share she is comfortable in
Three straight wins over Chiasson, Tate and Chandler

Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

Yana Santos

Insufficient price data

Model win probability: 45%
Fair decimal odds: 2.22

Reference quote—

Luana Santos

Insufficient price data

Model win probability: 55%
Fair decimal odds: 1.82

Reference quote—

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Sources and data limitations

Rate lines were compiled September 22, 2026. Card ranks #6 and #7 are the announced sheet. UFC bout counts 12 and 7. Per-round strike tables omitted. ELO excluded. No BetOnline price.

Model methodology

Read the evidence Inspect prices and assumptions

The Frame

What this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it

The Analyst's Take

Three-round women's bantamweight bout in the 25-foot APEX cage. Yana Santos is 17-8 (1 NC), card rank #6, age 36, American Top Team — a clinch kicker whose last three UFC wins are unanimous decisions over Macy Chiasson, Miesha Tate and Chelsea Chandler. Her rate line is 4.41 SLpM, 57% accuracy, 52% striking defence, 3.12 SApM, 0.78 TD/15, 47% takedown accuracy, 51% takedown defence and 0.1 Sub/15. Luana Santos is 11-2, card rank #7, age 26 — a judoka who decisioned Karol Rosa on June 20, 2026 and submitted Tainara Lisboa on May 17, 2025. Her rate line is 2.53 SLpM, 53% accuracy, 64% striking defence, 2.45 SApM, 2.14 TD/15, 37% takedown accuracy, 85% takedown defence and 1.0 Sub/15. No BetOnline price was on the September 22, 2026 board. We take Luana Santos 55% / Yana Santos 45% at conviction 5 / 10.

Yana Santos

Attribute

Luana Santos

Age

10-year gap26

5'6"

Height

5'6"

68"+1" Yana

Reach

67"

40"

Leg Reach

39"

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

American Top Team

Team

Not listed

Mar 3, 2018

Octagon Debut

Aug 12, 2023

Card Rank

Kick-heavy MMA, clinch kicker

Fighting Style

Judo black belt, BJJ blue belt

A mirror frame with a decade between them. Same listed height. Yana is +1" in reach on the compiled tape and +1" in leg reach. Luana is ten years younger. Both are orthodox. Yana has 12 UFC bouts in the sample; Luana has 7. Both sit in the green reliability band.

Venue Factor
The Meta APEX is 25 feet. That helps the woman who wants ties. Yana already does 39% of her significant striking in the clinch. Luana wants the fight a step further, on the mat, where her judo lives. Neither woman is a long-range sniper.

The Fighters

Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage

Yana Santos

Pro Record

17-8-0 (1 NC)

UFC Record

12 UFC bouts in the sample file

Streak

Three straight unanimous decisions (Chiasson, Tate, Chandler)

Finish Rate

47% (8 of 17 wins)

Avg Fight Time

12:48

Chin · Decision durability in the current sample. KD/15 is 0.10. Absorbed knockdowns were not published.SOS · RankedVeteran clinch kicker

Yana's recent run is all decisions: Chiasson (October 4, 2025), Tate (May 3, 2025), Chandler (August 10, 2024). Before that, split decision loss to Karol Rosa and unanimous decision loss to Holly Holm. She is a ranked veteran who has stopped losing minutes and has not been finishing anyone. Sub/15 0.1 and one career submission mean she is not hunting the finish Luana hunts. TDDef 51% is the leak against a judoka who shoots 2.14 times per 15 minutes.

Luana Santos

Pro Record

11-2-0

UFC Record

7 UFC bouts in the sample file

Streak

Three straight wins — Rosa and Croden by decision, Lisboa by keylock

Finish Rate

55% (6 of 11 wins)

Avg Fight Time

11:01

Chin · Decision losses in the sample. Measured KD/15 is 0.00. Absorbed knockdowns were not published.SOS · BuildingJudo submission threat

Luana's UFC log: decision over Karol Rosa, decision over Melissa Croden, keylock of Tainara Lisboa at 4:59 of round two, unanimous decision loss to Casey O'Neill, rear-naked choke of Mariya Agapova, decision over Stephanie Egger, and a round-one stoppage of Juliana Miller on debut. Five of eleven wins are submissions. Position split is 89% standing, 9% clinch, 2% ground — the finishes are discrete events, not a grinding top game.

Yana Santos

0.00 dealt · — absorbed

Knockdown Exchange

KD per 15 minutes. A dash means that figure was not published.

Luana Santos

0.00 dealt · — absorbed

Yana Santossignature weapons

Clinch Kick / Elbow Volume39% of significant strikes in the clinch; last three UFC wins all by unanimous decision

×3

Career KO PathSeven career KO/TKO wins — none in the last five UFC fights

×7

Luana Santossignature weapons

Keylock / RNCFive career submission wins — Lisboa keylock R2 4:59, Agapova RNC R1 3:27

×5

Takedown Pressure2.14 TD/15 into Yana's 51% takedown defence

×0

Yana Santos

Macy Chiasson

Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: veteran

RR3

October 4, 2025

Miesha Tate

Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: elite

RR3

May 3, 2025

Chelsea Chandler

Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: prospect

RR3

August 10, 2024

Karol Rosa

Decision — Split

Opponent context: veteran

RR3

July 1, 2023

Holly Holm

Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: elite

RR3

March 25, 2023

Pattern

Five straight decisions. 3-2. The wins are the better recent names. Nothing has been finished in either direction since Aldana stopped her in 2021, which sits just outside this five.

Luana Santos

Karol Rosa

Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: veteran

RR3

June 20, 2026

Melissa Croden

Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: prospect

RR3

December 13, 2025

Tainara Lisboa

Submission — Keylock

Opponent context: prospect

RR2 (4:59)

May 17, 2025

Casey O'Neill

Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: veteran

RR3

August 17, 2024

Mariya Agapova

Submission — RNC

Opponent context: prospect

RR1 (3:27)

July 13, 2024

Pattern

4-1, with the loss a decision to O'Neill and the two finishes both submissions. The Rosa win is the ranked data point that touches Yana's log.

Yana Santos

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Luana Santos

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Critical Insight
Both method charts close. Yana is 7 knockouts, 1 submission and 9 decisions. Luana is 1 knockout, 5 submissions and 5 decisions. Luana's bars are complete: 4 in round one, Lisboa in round two, Ferreira in round three, and 5 decisions. Yana's dated finishes are Dandois, Jarecka and Yavorskaya in round one, Wu in round two and Saraykina in round three. Kusiak, Lauzeckaite and Bałanda are knockouts with no round on the record, so they stay in the method chart and off the round bars.

Common Opponents

Opponent	Yana	Luana
Karol Rosa	L· Split decision (July 1, 2023)	W· Unanimous decision (June 20, 2026)
Shared name — Rosa split-decisioned Yana in 2023; Luana decisioned her in 2026. A nudge, not the pick by itself.

Yana

Luana

Grappling and age outweigh Yana's volume.

Metric	Yana	Luana
Striking accuracy	57%	53%
Standing / clinch / ground	56% / 39% / 5%	89% / 9% / 2%
Average fight time	12:48	11:01
Prior UFC bouts	12	7
Card rank	#6	#7

Archetype Base Rate

Veteran Clinch Kicker 45%55% Younger Judoka

No archetype base-rate row — editorial 55/45 · No BetOnline number is being back-solved. The 55/45 is the grappling and age edge, capped because Yana's decision wins over Chiasson and Tate are better names than Croden, and because Luana's offence is low-volume.

Yana SantosLuana Santos

Women's Bantamweight

· 17 fighters

Stat	Yana	Yana rank	Div avg	Luana rank	Luana
SLpMSLpMSignificant Strikes Landed per Minute — offensive striking volume. Higher = busier striker.	4.41	7/17	3.97	16/17	2.53
Str AccStr AccStriking Accuracy — share of significant strikes thrown that land. Higher = more precise.	57%	2/17elite	49.2%	7/17	53%
Str DefStr DefStriking Defense — share of opponents' significant strikes that do NOT land. Higher = harder to hit.	52%	14/17	58.5%	5/17elite	64%
SApMSApMSignificant Strikes Absorbed per Minute — how much a fighter gets hit. Lower = better.	3.12	10/17	3.00	6/17	2.45
KD/15	0.10	8/17	0.11	10/17	0.00
Damage RatioDamage RatioStrikes landed vs absorbed, normalized. Above 1.15 (division avg) = you hurt more than you get hurt.	1.41	8/17	1.49	14/17	1.03
TD/15TD/15Takedowns Landed per 15 minutes — wrestling pressure / takedown engine.	0.78	13/17	1.55	4/17elite	2.14
TD Acc	47%	7/17	42.9%	13/17	37%
TD DefTD DefTakedown Defense — share of opponents' takedown attempts stuffed.	51%	14/17	69.4%	4/17elite	85%
Sub/15Sub/15Submission Attempts per 15 minutes — how actively a fighter hunts the finish on the mat.	0.10	13/17	0.37	1/17elite	1.00
Prior UFC bouts	12	—	—	—	7

Statistical Verdict
Yana's 57% accuracy is 2nd of 17 and her 4.41 per minute is 7th. Luana is 16th in output and first in submission attempts, 4th in takedowns and 4th in takedown defence. The striking edge is Yana's. The grappling rows that decide a clinch are Luana's.

Significant Strikes Landed per Round

Control Time per Round (sec)

Yana Santos

She peaks in round two: 21.0 significant strikes, then 27.8, then 14.7, across 12, 10 and 10 rounds. Accuracy falls with the third-round drop, 65.2% to 46.8%.
The clinch is the early fight. 48.6% of round-one offence is in the clinch and 38.8% of round two. By round three, 72.8% is at distance. Body targets stay about a third to a half of her strikes.

Luana Santos

Luana's per-round strike, target and range rows are not in the compiled ledger, so her side of these charts stays blank rather than shown as zero.

Critical Insight
Yana's volume and clinch share arrive in the first two rounds and fade in the third. That is the window Luana's takedown and submission rates have to answer, because the round-level picture of Luana herself is not on this ledger.

Strike targeting (available rounds)

Yana

34%

41%

25%

Head

34%

Body

41%

Legs

25%

Head hunting vs body work vs leg attack — the shape of the damage. Unavailable strike-target figures are omitted rather than shown as 0%.

Striking range — distance, clinch and ground

YanaLuana · N/A

56%Distance—

39%Clinch—

5%Ground—

Approximate share of significant strikes by range in available rounds, weighted by strike volume. Incomplete splits are excluded. Debutants / fighters without Octagon samples show as N/A.

The Story of the Fight

Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath

Where the fight lives

Who owns each phase — and by how much

Open SpaceYana owns it

4.41 SLpM at 57% accuracy against 2.53 — if it stays a kickboxing minute

Pocket / ExchangesYana owns it

Yana's clinch-kick identity; Luana is not a firefight winner (KD/15 0.00)

ClinchLuana owns it

Yana's 39% clinch share is where Luana converts ties into throws in a 25-foot cage

GroundLuana owns it

1.0 Sub/15 and five career submissions against 0.1 Sub/15 and one career RNC

The Deep Read

Rosa is the shared name. She split-decisioned Yana in 2023. Luana decisioned her in 2026. Yana's three wins since that Rosa loss are real and against better recent opposition than a 2023 snapshot. The transitive read is a nudge, not the pick by itself. The pick is the grappling gap plus the age gap.

The grappling threat is not visible in Luana's strike locations. Two percent of her significant strikes are on the ground, and she still has five submission wins. The submissions are events, not a top-control striking diet. That cuts the conviction: she may get the fight down and still not bank the kind of ground volume judges love.

Path to Victory

Yana Santos

Keep the clinch as a striking phase, not a throwing phase. Land the 4.41 per minute, use the extra inch of reach, and make Luana win minutes she would rather spend on a throw.

Why they win

Volume and accuracy

4.41 SLpM at 57% accuracy against 2.53.

Reach edge

+1" reach on the compiled tape.

Recent ranked wins

Three straight wins over Chiasson, Tate and Chandler.

Octagon sample

Twelve UFC bouts against seven.

Clinch comfort

39% clinch share is already her comfort zone.

The gameplan

1
Frame the clinch
Knees and kicks — do not accept a body lock on the fence of a 25-foot cage.
2
Sprawl early
Her 51% takedown defence says this has to be drilled, not assumed.
3
Bank volume
Make every minute a striking minute; decisions are how the last three wins arrived.

Path to Victory

Luana Santos

Turn 51% takedown defence into the mat, threaten the keylock and the choke that beat Lisboa and Agapova, and do not spend three rounds in a kickboxing clinch at 2.53 SLpM.

Why they win

Grappling monopoly

2.14 TD/15, 85% TDD, 1.0 Sub/15.

Defensive striking

StrDef 64% and 2.45 SApM against 52% and 3.12.

Age

26 versus 36.

Rosa reference

Decision over Karol Rosa, who split-decisioned Yana.

Submission wins

Five career submission wins against one.

The gameplan

1
Do not strike for the round
Chain the grip from the clinch Yana is willing to stand in.
2
Rosa path available
She can win a decision if the finish is not there.
3
Lisboa finish
The finish is there if the grip sticks late in round two.

Danger Zone

How Yana Santos loses

Luana converts the clinch into a throw and finishes by keylock or choke the way she did Lisboa and Agapova.
Control without the finish still banks a Rosa/Croden-style decision.
Yana's 51% takedown defence never improves under APEX fence pressure.

Danger Zone

How Luana Santos loses

Throws fail and Yana's 4.41 per minute steals a fifteen-minute decision.
O'Neill-style outpointing when the grappling stalls.
An older finishing version of Yana finds a KO path that has not shown in the last five.

The matchup cell

51% Takedown Defence

Yana's 51% TDDef against Luana's 2.14 TD/15 and 1.0 Sub/15 is the structural reason for the 55 lean — not a generic striker-vs-grappler slogan.

51%

Yana takedown defence

Live to the cards either way

Both Decision Buckets Are 26%

Fight goes the distance in 52 of 100 readings. That matches both last-five logs.

52%

Distance share in the 100-fight split

#6 vs #7

Adjacent Ranks

Conviction stays at 5 because the stylistic lean is clear and the names Yana has just beaten are also clear.

The Five-Round Clock

Yana Santos danger windowLuana Santos danger windowNeutral / contested

R1 · 0:00–5:00Early grappling window

Luana's Agapova finish was 3:27 of round one. Yana's current form does not finish early.

Critical Insight
Luana's finish windows are early and late-second. Yana's path is fifteen minutes of clinch kicks. The third round is where the decision lean for the veteran gets real.

Finish Threat by Round

Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.

The Verdict

One hundred simulated fights, the betting market, and our conviction

If you only read 3 things

Luana Santos 55% / Yana Santos 45%, conviction 5/10 — grappling and age over clinch volume.

Both decision buckets are 26%; fight goes the distance 52%. Finish, if it comes, is Luana's submission path at 22%.

Announced card ranks #6 and #7. Same height. 25-foot APEX cage. No BetOnline price.

Model outcomes per 100 fights

Each square represents one percentage point of the model distribution, not an observed fight. This visualization does not measure model accuracy or reduce uncertainty in the inputs.

Luana Submission — 22%Luana Decision — 26%Luana KO/TKO — 7%Yana Decision — 26%Yana KO/TKO — 16%Yana Submission — 3%

Each square = 1 simulated fight. Yana Santos gold · Luana Santos orange · full color = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

Grappling gap

2.14 TD/15 and 1.0 Sub/15 against 51% TDDef and 0.1 Sub/15 — Luana's 22% submission bucket creates the 55.

Age and sample

26 versus 36; twelve UFC bouts versus seven. Both cut both ways.

Decision symmetry

Both decision buckets are 26%. The fight is live to the cards either way.

Rosa reference

Transitive nudge only — Yana's post-Rosa wins over Chiasson and Tate keep her at 45.

No market line

No BetOnline price on the September 22, 2026 board — fair odds only.

Fight Scripts

of simulations

The Throw and the Choke

Luana converts the clinch into a mat fight and finishes by keylock or RNC — Lisboa and Agapova.

Scripted outcomes for Yana Santos vs Luana Santos — how each version of this fight unfolds.

Yana Santos win probability

16%

26%

KO/TKODECSUB

Sixteen points keep the older finishing career in the file. It is not the current three-fight form.
Equal-sized counter to Luana's decision bucket — her last three UFC wins.
Three points match one career RNC. A scramble, not a system.

Luana Santos win probability

26%

22%

KO/TKODECSUB

Seven points match one career knockout. Not the plan.
Rosa and Croden path — control and defence without the finish.
The edge that creates the 55. Lisboa keylock and Agapova choke, not a ground-and-pound grind.

Projected Scorecards

How the model scores each round

Luana

Yana

29-28 Luana

Early control, Yana steals the third on volume

Common distance shape

30-27 Luana

Throws stick all night

Clean grappling night

29-28 Yana

Throws fail; clinch kicks bank two rounds

Primary upset card

Model and price

Yana Santos

Insufficient price data

Model win probability: 45%
Fair decimal odds: 2.22

Reference quote—

Estimated EV: —
Edge vs no-vig market: —

Luana Santos

Insufficient price data

Model win probability: 55%
Fair decimal odds: 1.82

Reference quote—

Estimated EV: —
Edge vs no-vig market: —

EV uses the displayed price: probability × decimal odds − 1. Edge is a percentage-point difference from a proportionally de-vigged, same-book pair. A dash means that comparison is unavailable.

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Fair odds are the break-even price under this estimate, not a recommended entry price. Model uncertainty can erase a small edge.

What price would change the calculation? · Yana Santos

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Assumed win probability (%)Your target estimated EV (%)

Required decimal price: 2.23 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

What price would change the calculation? · Luana Santos

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Assumed win probability (%)Your target estimated EV (%)

Required decimal price: 1.82 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

Analyst prop read

0 value leans8 fair0 avoid

No prop carries a clear value lean in this analysis.

Full prop table (8)Expand for odds, model %, implied % and analyst verdict per prop

Green rows mark props where our analysis sees value at the recorded BetOnline price. Red rows are overpriced relative to the model share. These are snapshots — verify the line is still available before acting.

Prop probabilities, break-even prices and analyst verdict at the recorded quote.
Prop	Reference quote	Implied %	Model %	Fair decimal odds	Difference (pp)	Estimated EV	Our read
Fight goes the distance	-108	51.9%	52%	1.92	+0.1	+0.1%	Fair price
Luana by decision	+285	26.0%	26%	3.85	+0.0	+0.1%	Fair price
Yana by decision	+285	26.0%	26%	3.85	+0.0	+0.1%	Fair price
Luana by submission	+355	22.0%	22%	4.55	+0.0	+0.1%	Fair price
Luana by KO/TKO	+1329	7.0%	7%	14.29	+0.0	+0.0%	Fair price
Yana by KO/TKO	+525	16.0%	16%	6.25	0.0	0.0%	Fair price
Yana by submission	+3233	3.0%	3%	33.33	-0.0	-0.0%	Fair price
Fight does not go the distance	+108	48.1%	48%	2.08	-0.1	-0.2%	Fair price

Prop differences use raw implied probability, including the bookmaker margin. They are not the no-vig moneyline edge above.

Original analyst price notes

These notes describe the original analysis and may refer to older prices.

Best lean: Luana by submission at 22% is the structural edge. Yana by decision at 26% is the equal-sized counter if the throws do not stick. There is no market line on this file to call an overlay.

Conviction

5/10

Editorial confidence in the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

Adjacent ranks, same height, opposite jobs. The younger judoka gets the lean. The veteran clinch kicker keeps it inside one round of a coin flip. Lean: Luana Santos.

What backs the lean

2.14 takedowns per 15 minutes against 51% takedown defence
1.0 submissions per 15 minutes against 0.1
85% takedown defence and 64% striking defence
Age 26 against 36
A 2026 decision over Karol Rosa, who split-decisioned Yana in 2023

What limits it

4.41 SLpM at 57% accuracy, and a 39% clinch share she is comfortable in
Three straight wins over Chiasson, Tate and Chandler
Twelve UFC bouts against seven
A reach edge and the same height
Luana can be decisioned, as O'Neill showed, when the grappling stalls

Final Assessment

In roughly 55 of 100 readings, Luana Santos turns the clinch Yana likes into a throw, and either submits her (22%) the way she did Lisboa and Agapova or controls a decision (26%) the way she did Rosa. The knockout share is 7% and is not the plan.

In the other 45, Yana Santos keeps those ties as a striking phase, lands the 4.41 per minute, and wins a decision (26%) the way she has won her last three, with a smaller knockout branch (16%) from the older version of the career and almost no submission path (3%).

Luana 55 / Yana 45, conviction 5 out of 10. Adjacent ranks, same height, opposite jobs. The younger judoka gets the lean. The veteran clinch kicker keeps it inside one round of a coin flip.

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