Zach Reese vs Mickey Gall: analysis & prediction

PRELIM · MIDDLEWEIGHT · 3 ROUNDSUFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan
Zach Reese — Middleweight fighter

Zach Reese

“Savage”
10W4L
Wrestling volume, submissions
VS
Mickey Gall — Middleweight fighter

Mickey Gall

7W7L
Jiu-Jitsu

Reese has to keep the bigger frame working before Gall finds a neck

MiddleweightMeta APEX, Las VegasOctober 31, 2026

Fight overview

The fight in 30 seconds

Reese has to keep the bigger frame working before Gall finds a neck.

Paths that change the fight

  • Zach ReeseKeep the bigger frame, the 77-inch reach and the takedown volume working as scoring and control before a neck is available.
  • Mickey GallFind a neck early, before the size and the range gap become the round.
What limits this estimate · Analyst conviction: 4/10
  • Six of Gall's seven wins are submissions, and his attempt rate is 1.58 per 15 minutes to Reese's 1.25.
  • Reese's last reviewed result is a Round-1 KO/TKO loss to Ryan Gandra at 1:15, and his takedown accuracy was not reconciled.

Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

Zach Reese

Insufficient price data
Model win probability
62%
Fair odds
-163
Reference quote
—
Fair decimal odds
1.61

Mickey Gall

Insufficient price data
Model win probability
38%
Fair odds
+163
Reference quote
—
Fair decimal odds
2.63
Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Sources and data limitations

Researched editorial analysis reviewed October 18, 2026. Records, divisions and rounds follow the supplied card. UFC.com rates are the striking and grappling inputs. Reese's takedown accuracy was not reconciled — attempts are listed and landed takedowns are not — so TDAcc is stored as 0 and is not an observed conversion of zero. UFC.com Win badges were not used; the recent outcomes follow the supplied narrative and ESPN. Camp listings disagree for Reese: UFC.com lists War Training Center and ESPN lists Bangtao Muay Thai. Neither gym is treated as exclusive. ESPN lists Kill Cliff FC for Gall. Subjective numerical handicap published, not a calibrated model output. No BetOnline line is used, and no market quote is claimed. No per-round strike chart, target split, knockdown total or average fight time was published.

Model methodology
Read the evidenceInspect prices and assumptions
01

The Frame

What this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it

The Analyst's Take

Zach Reese (10-4-0) vs. Mickey Gall (7-7-0): Middleweight, 3 five-minute rounds at Meta APEX in Las Vegas. Reese has to keep the bigger frame working before Gall finds a neck. Reese is listed at #50 middleweight. Gall is unranked and is moving up from welterweight, last published at 170.8 lb.

Zach Reese
Attribute
Mickey Gall
32
Age
34
76+2 in
Height
74
77+3 in
Reach
74
45+4 in
Leg Reach
41
Not published
Stance
Not published
UFC.com: War Training Center; ESPN: Bangtao Muay Thai
Team
Kill Cliff FC (ESPN)
Not published
Octagon Debut
Not published
Mixed — wrestling volume and submissions
Fighting Style
Jiu-jitsu
#50 middleweight
Listing
Unranked
Not supplied
Last published weight
170.8 lb

Measurements come from the reviewed athlete profiles (height, reach and leg reach in inches). Age is the October 18, 2026 snapshot, not a projected fight-night age. Both men are booked at 185 lb. Gall is moving up from welterweight; 170.8 lb is his last published weight, not a weigh-in for this card. Reese is listed at #50 middleweight. Gall is unranked. Camp listings for Reese disagree and neither gym is treated as exclusive.

Venue Factor
Scheduled for 3 five-minute rounds on the prelims at Meta APEX in Las Vegas. The round scenarios below are tactical questions, not invented statistical forecasts. No cage-size measurement was supplied.
02

The Fighters

Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage

Zach Reese

Pro Record
10-4-0
UFC Record
Not published
Streak
Lost the last two reviewed bouts
Finish Rate
8 of 10 wins (5 KO/TKO, 3 submissions)
Avg Fight Time
Not published
Chin · Not rated — the reviewed log includes a Round-1 KO/TKO lossSOS · Not ratedMixed — wrestling volume and submissions

Reese enters at 10-4-0 with the published nickname Savage and a #50 middleweight listing. The five reviewed results are a first-round KO/TKO loss to Ryan Gandra at 1:15 on UFC 329, a split-decision loss to Michel Pereira, a Round-2 submission of Jack McVey at 1:38, a Round-1 no-contest with Sedriques Dumas at 0:51, and a unanimous decision over Dusko Todorovic. The Dumas bout is an NC and is not part of the 10-4-0. UFC.com lists War Training Center and ESPN lists Bangtao Muay Thai; that disagreement is left unresolved. This booking is three rounds.

Mickey Gall

Pro Record
7-7-0
UFC Record
Not published
Streak
Lost the last four reviewed bouts
Finish Rate
6 of 7 wins (6 submissions, 0 KO/TKO)
Avg Fight Time
Not published
Chin · Not rated — the reviewed log includes Round-1 KO/TKO lossesSOS · Not ratedJiu-jitsu

Gall enters at 7-7-0, unranked, moving up from welterweight. His last published weight is 170.8 lb and the bout is booked at 185. ESPN lists Kill Cliff FC, and the style label is jiu-jitsu. The ESPN win ledger is zero KO/TKO wins, six submissions and one decision. The five reviewed results end with a first-round KO/TKO loss to Ramiz Brahimaj at 2:55 on UFC 309, and the only win in that window is the oldest: a Round-1 submission of Jordan Williams at 2:57. Event names are included only where the brief names them.

Zach Reese
0.00 dealt · — absorbed
Knockdown Exchange
Knockdowns per 15 minutes.
Mickey Gall
0.00 dealt · — absorbed

Zach Reesesignature weapons

KO/TKO winsESPN method count. Individual techniques and rounds were not published for the career total.
×5
Submission winsESPN method count. The reviewed window includes a Round-2 submission of Jack McVey at 1:38. The hold was not named.
×3

Mickey Gallsignature weapons

Submission winsESPN method count. Six of seven wins. The reviewed window includes a Round-1 submission of Jordan Williams at 2:57. The hold was not named.
×6
KO/TKO winsESPN method count is zero knockout wins. The 0.29 knockdown rate per 15 minutes is a rate, not a win total.
×0

Zach Reese

L
Ryan Gandra
KO/TKO 1:15
R1
UFC 329 — Jul 11, 2026
L
Michel Pereira
Split decision
Not stated
Feb 21, 2026 — event name not in the reviewed sources
W
Jack McVey
Submission 1:38
R2
Nov 8, 2025 — event name not in the reviewed sources
NC
Sedriques Dumas
No contest 0:51
R1
Sep 13, 2025 — event name not in the reviewed sources
W
Dusko Todorovic
Unanimous decision
Not stated
May 31, 2025 — event name not in the reviewed sources
Pattern

Newest first: a Round-1 KO/TKO loss to Ryan Gandra at 1:15 (UFC 329), a split-decision loss to Michel Pereira, a Round-2 submission of Jack McVey at 1:38, a Round-1 no-contest with Sedriques Dumas at 0:51, and a unanimous decision over Dusko Todorovic. UFC.com Win badges were not used. The NC is not part of the 10-4-0.

Mickey Gall

L
Ramiz Brahimaj
KO/TKO 2:55
R1
UFC 309 — Nov 16, 2024
L
Bassil Hafez
Unanimous decision
Not stated
Jun 1, 2024 — event name not in the reviewed sources
L
Mike Malott
KO/TKO 3:41
R1
Apr 9, 2022 — event name not in the reviewed sources
L
Alex Morono
Unanimous decision
Not stated
Dec 4, 2021 — event name not in the reviewed sources
W
Jordan Williams
Submission 2:57
R1
Jul 24, 2021 — event name not in the reviewed sources
Pattern

Newest first: a Round-1 KO/TKO loss to Ramiz Brahimaj at 2:55 (UFC 309), a unanimous-decision loss to Bassil Hafez, a Round-1 KO/TKO loss to Mike Malott at 3:41, a unanimous-decision loss to Alex Morono, and a Round-1 submission of Jordan Williams at 2:57. The only win in this window is the oldest result. No shared opponent with Reese appears in the brief.

Zach Reese

Win Methods
Wins by Round

Mickey Gall

Win Methods
Wins by Round
Critical Insight
These slices are shares of career wins, not the forecast. Reese is 5 KO/TKO, 3 submissions and 2 decisions out of 10 wins (50 / 30 / 20). Gall is 0 KO/TKO, 6 submissions and 1 decision out of 7 wins (0 / 85.7 / 14.3). No career round-win histogram was published, so every round bar stays at 0. In the five reviewed results only, Reese's wins are a Round-2 submission of Jack McVey and a decision over Dusko Todorovic, and Gall's only win is a Round-1 submission of Jordan Williams. Those bouts are not expanded into career round totals.

Opposition strength (no shared opponents)

Without a reliable shared-opponent table, compare who each fighter has been tested against using SOS tier, UFC sample size, and recent elite-tier form — not raw records alone.

FactorZachMickey
Strength of schedule (SOS tier)Not rated — No strength-of-schedule grade was published. The five reviewed opponents are named in the form guide.Not rated — No strength-of-schedule grade was published. The five reviewed opponents are named in the form guide.
UFC sampleNot publishedNot published
Recent ranked / elite touches (last 5)0 elite · 0 veteran tier0 elite · 0 veteran tier
Form-window tier points tied in the last-five sample — compare SOS notes and methods, not volume alone.
Last three opponentsRyan Gandra, Michel Pereira, Jack McVeyRamiz Brahimaj, Bassil Hafez, Mike Malott
03

The Numbers

Composites, division ranks and round-by-round evidence

Composite scores summarize selected statistics on a 0–100 scale. They are not win probabilities. Compare the underlying metrics, opponent quality and UFC experience before interpreting a score difference as a matchup advantage.

Striking

SLpM 25% · StrAcc 30% · StrDef 30% · SApM 15%

0.0
Zach
0.0
Mickey

Editorial, not a division rank. SLpM and SApM are scaled on the ceiling of 8 printed for SLpM on the 10001 radar row. SApM is inverted so higher absorption does not add points. Accuracy and defence are the printed percentages. Reese: 55.9, 54, 44, 50 → 50.9. Gall: 43.8, 50, 50, 41 → 47.1.

Grappling

TD/15 25% · TDAcc 25% · TDDef 30% · Sub/15 20%

0.0
Zach
0.0
Mickey

Editorial. TD/15 uses the ceiling of 10 and Sub/15 the ceiling of 3 from the 10001 radar notes. Accuracy and defence are printed percentages. Reese's takedown accuracy was not reconciled, so that input is 0 and this gauge is lower than an observed conversion would make it. Reese: 27.4, 0, 52, 41.7 → 30.8. Gall: 11.5, 16, 38, 52.7 → 28.8.

Technical

(Striking + Grappling) / 2

0.0
Zach
0.0
Mickey

Average of the two editorial gauges only. Reese 40.8, Gall 37.9. No extra inputs.

Cardio

Fight time · pace · R3/R1 output · champ rounds

0
Zach
0
Mickey

Not scored. No observed fight time, pace, round-output or championship-round chart was published. The 0 is an empty field, not a measured cardio score.

Overall

(Technical + Cardio) / 2

0
Zach
0
Mickey

Not scored. Cardio has no published inputs, so the template average is left empty. The 0 is not an overall rating.

MetricZachMickey
Avg Fight TimeNot publishedNot published
Pace TierSLpM 4.47SLpM 3.50
R3/R1 OutputNo observed round chart was publishedNo observed round chart was published
Slow Start %Not publishedNot published
Champ Rounds3-round bout3-round bout

Archetype Base Rate

Wrestling volume and submissions 62%38% Jiu-jitsu

No archetype sample was published · The 62 figure is the editorial handicap, not a historical wrestler-versus-jiu-jitsu win rate. No archetype base-rate row was supplied for this pairing.

Zach ReeseMickey Gall

Middleweight

No comparable division benchmark is published for this sample. These values describe each fighter; no division rank is assigned.

StatZachMickey
SLpM4.473.50
Str Acc54% (269/495)50% (366/738)
Str Def44%50%
SApM4.004.72
KD Avg0.25 per 15 min0.29 per 15 min
Damage RatioNot publishedNot published
TD/152.741.15
TD Def52%38%
Sub/151.251.58
Avg Fight TimeNot publishedNot published
Statistical Verdict
No middleweight pool or division rank was published, so this table is the UFC.com rate line only, reviewed October 18, 2026. Reese's takedown accuracy is not shown as a percentage because landed takedowns were not reconciled; the fight record stores 0 as that placeholder. Gall's takedown accuracy is 16% on 4 of 25. Knockdown cells are rates per 15 minutes, not career totals.

Zach Reese

  • No observed round chart was published.
  • Recent results are not a per-round strike log.
  • Rounds 4 and 5 are not part of this three-round booking.

Mickey Gall

  • No observed round chart was published.
  • Recent results are not a per-round strike log.
  • Rounds 4 and 5 are not part of this three-round booking.
Critical Insight
No observed round chart was published. Per-round strike counts, accuracy, control time and knockdowns are left empty.
04

The Story of the Fight

Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath

Where the fight lives

Who owns each phase — and by how much
Open SpaceZach owns it

Editorial read from the 3-inch reach and 4-inch leg-reach gaps, plus the higher significant-strike rate. No distance-strike chart was published.

Pocket / ExchangesEven

No target or pocket chart was published. Gall's striking defence is 50% to Reese's 44%, and Gall absorbs 4.72 per minute to 4.00.

ClinchEven

No clinch chart was published. The phase is left even rather than assigned.

GroundEven

Reese's takedown volume is 2.74 per 15 minutes against 38% takedown defence. Gall's win ledger is six submissions. Both facts are real, and no control-time chart says who keeps the position.

The Deep Read

Reese is booked at 76 inches, with a 77-inch reach and a 45-inch leg reach. Gall is booked at 74, 74 and 41, moving up from a last published weight of 170.8 lb into a 185 lb bout. Reese has to keep the bigger frame working before Gall finds a neck. The listed tools on Reese's side are wrestling volume and submissions: 2.74 takedowns per 15 minutes, 1.25 submission attempts per 15 minutes, five KO/TKO wins and three submission wins. Gall's listed tool is jiu-jitsu: six of seven wins are submissions, 1.58 attempts per 15 minutes, and zero KO/TKO wins.

The UFC.com rates reviewed October 18, 2026 put Reese at 4.47 significant strikes landed per minute, 54% accuracy on 269 of 495, 44% striking defence and 4.00 absorbed per minute. Gall is at 3.50, 50% on 366 of 738, 50% defence and 4.72 absorbed. Reese lands more. Gall's defence percentage is higher, and he is hit more often. Gall's takedown accuracy is 16% on 4 of 25, with 38% takedown defence. Reese's takedown accuracy was not reconciled, so it is not used as a real percentage. No shared opponent appears in the two reviewed lists, and no per-round strike chart was published.

Reese's last two reviewed results are losses: Ryan Gandra by KO/TKO at 1:15 of round 1 on UFC 329, then Michel Pereira by split decision. Before that sit the Jack McVey submission, a Round-1 no-contest with Sedriques Dumas at 0:51, and a unanimous decision over Dusko Todorovic. Gall's reviewed window ends on November 16, 2024, with a Round-1 KO/TKO loss to Ramiz Brahimaj at 2:55 on UFC 309. The older results in that list are decision losses to Bassil Hafez and Alex Morono, a Round-1 KO/TKO loss to Mike Malott at 3:41, and a Round-1 submission of Jordan Williams. UFC.com lists War Training Center for Reese and ESPN lists Bangtao Muay Thai. Neither camp is treated as exclusive. ESPN lists Kill Cliff FC for Gall.

UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan event poster
Event poster supplied with the booking. No fight-night photo was part of this review.
Path to Victory

Zach Reese

Keep the bigger frame, the 77-inch reach and the takedown volume working as scoring and control before a neck is available.

Why they win
01
Booked frame

76 inches to 74, a 77-inch reach to 74, and a 45-inch leg reach to 41. The tagline starts from that sheet.

02
Takedown volume

2.74 takedowns per 15 minutes against Gall's 38% takedown defence. Gall's own takedown accuracy is 16% on 4 of 25.

03
Strike rate

4.47 significant strikes landed per minute at 54% accuracy (269 of 495), against 3.50 at 50% (366 of 738).

04
Division listing and weight

Reese is listed at #50 middleweight and is booked at 185. Gall is unranked, moving up from welterweight, last published at 170.8 lb.

05
More than one win route

The ESPN ledger is 5 KO/TKO, 3 submissions and 2 decisions. The reviewed window includes both a submission of Jack McVey and a decision over Dusko Todorovic.

The gameplan
  1. 1
    Range

    Use the reach and leg-reach gaps to score while Gall is still covering ground.

  2. 2
    Level change

    Treat a level change as a threat that has to be finished into control, not as a gift of the neck.

  3. 3
    After the shot

    If a takedown lands, make the bigger frame do work. Control without offence is not assumed to win the round.

  4. 4
    Round 1

    Bank the first round. The Gandra result ended at 1:15, and this fight is only three rounds.

  5. 5
    Decision route

    A knockout is not required for the lean. Two of the ten wins are decisions, including the unanimous decision over Dusko Todorovic.

Path to Victory

Mickey Gall

Find a neck early, before the size and the range gap become the round.

Why they win
01
Submission ledger

Six of seven wins are submissions, and the attempt rate is 1.58 per 15 minutes against Reese's 1.25.

02
Jiu-jitsu label

The supplied style is jiu-jitsu. The ESPN ledger has zero KO/TKO wins, so the published win route is the neck, not a knockout.

03
Striking defence on the sheet

50% striking defence against Reese's 44%. He also absorbs more, 4.72 per minute to 4.00. Those are different measurements.

04
Early grappling in the handicap

If the grappling lands early and the size gap does not show up, Reese's lean falls toward 52% and Gall's share rises toward 48%.

05
A finish does not require his own takedown chain

A 16% takedown conversion (4 of 25) is not a high-volume shot profile. Six submission wins say the finishes have come anyway.

The gameplan
  1. 1
    Close the reach

    Close the three-inch reach gap with a purpose. The ESPN win ledger has zero KO/TKO wins, so a striking match is not the published route.

  2. 2
    The neck

    When Reese changes levels, hunt the submission rather than accepting a long minute with no attempt.

  3. 3
    Do not pretend to be the wrestler

    The published takedown accuracy is 4 of 25. The rates do not describe a high-conversion shot chain. The win ledger describes submissions.

  4. 4
    The weight move

    The size gap is the problem to solve early. The last published weight is 170.8 lb and the booking is 185.

  5. 5
    Do not wait

    If the range is not closing, change the entry inside the round. Waiting is the version in which Reese moves toward 72%.

Danger Zone

How Zach Reese loses

  • Gall's grappling lands early and the size gap does not show up. That is the version in which Reese falls toward 52%.

  • An early stoppage arrives before the takedown volume matters, as it did against Ryan Gandra at 1:15 of round 1.

  • Entries keep putting a neck in front of a fighter with six submission wins and 1.58 submission attempts per 15 minutes.

Danger Zone

How Mickey Gall loses

  • The reach and the takedown volume keep him at range or in controlled positions for three rounds. That is the version in which Reese rises toward 72%.

  • He closes distance and still cannot turn the contact into a submission, leaving the minutes to the higher significant-strike rate.

  • The move to 185 shows up as the height, reach and leg-reach gaps, and the jiu-jitsu never attaches.

The tagline

The frame has to work first

Two inches of height, three of reach and four of leg reach are the physical case for Reese. They matter only if they score before Gall attaches.

77 to 74
reach, inches
Published rates

Volume against a low takedown defence

Reese is listed at 2.74 takedowns per 15 minutes. Gall's takedown defence is 38%, and Gall's own accuracy is 4 of 25. Reese's conversion was not reconciled.

2.74
Reese takedowns per 15 minutes
ESPN method count

Gall's wins are submissions

Six of seven wins are submissions and zero are knockouts. That is why his forecast share is 22% submission and only 4% KO/TKO.

6 of 7
career wins by submission
Not a chin grade

Both reviewed windows include early stoppage losses

Reese lost to Ryan Gandra at 1:15 of round 1. Gall lost to Ramiz Brahimaj at 2:55 of round 1 and to Mike Malott at 3:41 of round 1. No knockdown total beyond the per-15 rates was published.

1:15
Gandra KO/TKO time
Nothing to bridge

No shared opponent

The ten reviewed names do not overlap. No common-opponent comparison is drawn, and no transitive ranking is claimed.

The Five-Round Clock

Zach Reese danger windowMickey Gall danger windowNeutral / contested
R1 · 0:00–5:00The size has to show up before a neck

First-round stoppage losses are already in both reviewed windows. This is a three-round fight, so a slow start is expensive for either man.

Critical Insight
Reese falls toward 52% if Gall's grappling lands early and the size gap does not show up; he rises toward 72% if the reach and takedown volume keep Gall at range. The complementary range for Mickey Gall is 28–48%.

Finish Threat by Round

Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.

05

The Verdict

One hundred simulated fights, the betting market, and our conviction

If you only read 3 things
1

Reese has to keep the bigger frame working before Gall finds a neck.

2

Editorial handicap: Zach Reese 62% / Mickey Gall 38%. Fair prices are -163 / +163, decimal 1.61 / 2.63. No market quote is claimed.

3

Reese falls toward 52% if Gall's grappling lands early and the size gap does not show up, and rises toward 72% if reach and takedown volume keep Gall at range. Conviction is 4/10.

Model outcomes per 100 fights

Each square represents one percentage point of the model distribution, not an observed fight. This visualization does not measure model accuracy or reduce uncertainty in the inputs.

Zach Reese · Decision — 24%Zach Reese · Submission — 16%Zach Reese · KO/TKO — 22%Mickey Gall · KO/TKO — 4%Mickey Gall · Decision — 12%Mickey Gall · Submission — 22%

Each square = 1 model percentage point. Zach Reese gold · Mickey Gall orange · color opacity: 100% = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

The booked frame

Height 76 to 74, reach 77 to 74, leg reach 45 to 41. Gall's last published weight is 170.8 lb and the bout is 185.

Takedown volume against takedown defence

Reese 2.74 per 15 minutes, Gall 38% defence and 16% accuracy on 4 of 25. Reese's own accuracy is unreconciled and stored as 0.

Who finds the neck

Gall has 6 submission wins out of 7 and 1.58 attempts per 15 minutes. Reese has 3 submission wins and 1.25 attempts per 15 minutes.

The first round already on the ledger

Gandra stopped Reese at 1:15 of round 1. Brahimaj stopped Gall at 2:55 of round 1 and Malott stopped him at 3:41 of round 1.

What is not in the file

No shared opponent, no market quote, no round chart, no average fight time, and no agreed gym for Reese. Conviction stays at 4/10 because of those gaps.

Fight Scripts

0%
of simulations

The frame scores

Reese's decision share. Range and takedown volume win rounds without a finish. Two of his ten career wins are decisions, including Dusko Todorovic.

Scripted outcomes for Zach Reese vs Mickey Gall — how each version of this fight unfolds.

Zach Reese win probability
0%
22%
24%
16%
KO/TKODECSUB

  • Five career KO/TKO wins are a real route. The share stays at 22% because the knockdown rate is 0.25 per 15 minutes and the Gandra loss shows an early KO/TKO can go the other way.

  • The largest Reese share. If the frame and the takedown volume score without a finish, a three-round decision is the principal route. Two of his ten wins are decisions.

  • Three career submission wins and 1.25 attempts per 15 minutes. The share stays below the decision because Gall is the more submission-oriented fighter on the win ledger.

Mickey Gall win probability
0%
4%
12%
22%
KO/TKODECSUB

  • The ESPN win ledger lists zero KO/TKO wins. A 0.29 knockdown rate per 15 minutes does not overturn that count.

  • One decision win in the ESPN ledger. Possible over three rounds, and smaller than the submission route.

  • The principal Gall route. Six submission wins, a jiu-jitsu style label, and 1.58 submission attempts per 15 minutes.

Projected Scorecards

How the model scores each round
R1
Even
R2
Even
R3
Even
R4
Even
R5
Even
Not projected
No observed round chart was published
Not a scorecard
Not projected
Three-round bout; rounds 4 and 5 are not scheduled
Not a scorecard
Not projected
A late takedown or a late flurry is not assumed to erase earlier scoring
Not a scorecard

Model and price

Zach Reese: -163 · Mickey Gall: +163

Fair American prices of the editorial 62/38 handicap. Decimal prices are 1.61 and 2.63. They are arithmetic break-even prices without bookmaker margin. No BetOnline line exists, and no market quote is claimed. They are not a betting recommendation.

Original analyst price notes

These notes describe the original analysis and may refer to older prices.

No market quote is claimed, so no value bet is asserted. The fair prices are Reese -163 (decimal 1.61) and Gall +163 (decimal 2.63).

Conviction
0
4/10

Editorial confidence in the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

Confidence reflects the quality and comparability of the evidence, not the size of the 62% lean. Lean: Zach Reese.

What backs the lean

  • Booked size, a 77-inch reach to 74, and 2.74 takedowns per 15 minutes against 38% takedown defence.

  • Gall is moving up from welterweight, last published at 170.8 lb, with zero KO/TKO wins on the ESPN ledger.

  • Reese's significant-strike rate is higher: 4.47 at 54% against 3.50 at 50%.

What limits it

  • Six of Gall's seven wins are submissions, and his attempt rate is 1.58 per 15 minutes to Reese's 1.25.

  • Reese's last reviewed result is a Round-1 KO/TKO loss to Ryan Gandra at 1:15, and his takedown accuracy was not reconciled.

  • No market quote, no shared opponent, no agreed gym for Reese, and no observed round chart.

Final Assessment

Zach Reese 62% / Mickey Gall 38%. Zach Reese is the editorial selection. The lean follows the booked size, the reach and a takedown rate of 2.74 per 15 minutes against Gall's 38% takedown defence, with Gall moving up from a last published weight of 170.8 lb. Mickey Gall retains 38% because six of his seven wins are submissions and his submission-attempt rate is 1.58 per 15 minutes against Reese's 1.25. Fair prices are -163 / +163, decimal 1.61 / 2.63. No market quote is claimed.

Reese falls toward 52% if Gall's grappling lands early and the size gap does not show up; he rises toward 72% if the reach and takedown volume keep Gall at range. The complementary range for Mickey Gall is 28–48%. These are judgment-based scenarios, not statistical confidence intervals. The distance remains three rounds. Editorial conviction is 4/10.

UFC.com lists War Training Center for Reese and ESPN lists Bangtao Muay Thai. Neither gym is treated as exclusive. ESPN lists Kill Cliff FC for Gall. Reese's takedown accuracy is stored as 0 because conversion was not reconciled. No per-round strike counts, target percentages, knockdown totals, average fight time or career round-win histogram were published. The probabilities are a subjective editorial handicap, not a calibrated model.

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