Grappling sheet versus recent knockouts — narrow lean, low conviction
Fight overview
Cleaner wrestling and 1.2 Sub/15 versus round-one knockout power and a 31% striking defence. Petroski 55 / Bekoev 45 — both on skids.
Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.
Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.
Rate lines and fight logs were compiled September 22, 2026. Card ranks #56 and #57 are the announced sheet. UFC bout counts 13 and 4. Pre-UFC win methods are not invented. Per-round tables omitted. Leg reach omitted. No BetOnline price.
Model methodologyWhat this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it
Three-round middleweight preliminary bout in the 25-foot APEX cage. Andre Petroski is 13-6, card rank #56, fight-night age 35, switch stance, 6'0" with a 73" reach. Compiled rate line: 2.75 SLpM, 49% accuracy, 51% striking defence, 2.99 SApM, 3.13 TD/15 at 52%, 86% takedown defence and 1.2 Sub/15. His last three UFC fights are losses, two of them knockouts (Cody Brundage, Cam Rowston). Azamat "Iron" Bekoev is 20-5, card rank #57, fight-night age 30, orthodox, same height, 72" reach. His four-fight UFC compiled rate line is 4.57 SLpM, 52% accuracy, 31% striking defence, 6.83 SApM, 3.48 TD/15 at 43% and 0.0 Sub/15. He is 2-2 in the UFC: two round-one knockouts, then a round-three stoppage loss to Yousri Belgaroui and a guillotine loss to Tresean Gore. No BetOnline price was on the September 22, 2026 board. We take Petroski 55% / Bekoev 45% at conviction 4 / 10.
The same frame, five years apart. Same listed height. Petroski is +1" in reach and five years older. Bekoev is orthodox; Petroski switches. Leg reach is unpublished and is omitted. Petroski has 13 UFC bouts; Bekoev has 4. The pair is medium reliability because Bekoev is under five Octagon fights.
Venue FactorThe APEX is 25 feet. Two men who both shoot more than three times per 15 minutes do not need a big cage. The fence is the fight. The question is who is still upright when the first shot comes.
Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage
UFC win log on the page: five decisions, two submissions (anaconda of Nick Maximov, arm triangle of Hu Yaozong) and one knockout (elbows of Micheal Gillmore). The other five pro wins are not on this page and are not assigned a method. 3.13 TD/15 at 52% and 86% takedown defence are the grappling case. 1.2 Sub/15 matches Maximov and Yaozong — those wins are from 2022 and 2021. The three wins before the current skid were all decisions.
Two UFC wins are both knockouts (Ryan Loder, Zach Reese). 31% striking defence and 6.83 SApM are the hole — Belgaroui landed 102 significant strikes; Gore landed 78. 3.48 TD/15 at 43% is a wrestling rate; 0.0 Sub/15 means the takedown has not become a finish. 62% takedown defence against Petroski's 3.13 at 52% is a live entry, not a wall.
Opponent context: prospect
Opponent context: prospect
Opponent context: veteran
Opponent context: veteran
Opponent context: prospect
Wins in this window went the distance. Losses inside the distance were early. 0-3 currently.
Opponent context: prospect
Opponent context: prospect
Opponent context: prospect
Opponent context: prospect
Four UFC fights only. Wins were early knockouts; losses came in round three after he had already been hit a lot. Gore choked him. Belgaroui stopped him. Neither loss was a decision.
Critical InsightNo full pro career win chart was published — pre-UFC methods are not invented. Donut values are the editorial mix for this fight (shares of each fighter's win probability from the 100-fight split): Petroski 11/22/22 of 55; Bekoev 28/12/5 of 45. Round bars show UFC-page wins only (Petroski five decisions among eight UFC wins; Bekoev two R1 KOs).
Without a reliable shared-opponent table, compare who each fighter has been tested against using SOS tier, UFC sample size, and recent elite-tier form — not raw records alone.
| Factor | Andre | Azamat |
|---|---|---|
| Strength of schedule (SOS tier) | Announced SOS 18 — Recent wins Vieira, Budka; losses Brundage, Rowston, Shahbazyan | Announced SOS 10 — UFC: wins Loder and Reese by KO; losses Gore (guillotine) and Belgaroui (TKO) |
| UFC sample | 8-5 across 13 UFC fights on the compiled ledger | 2-2 across 4 UFC fights |
| Recent ranked / elite touches (last 5) | 0 elite · 2 veteran tier | 0 elite · 0 veteran tier |
| Form-window difficulty edge: Fighter A (7 vs 4 tier points in listed bouts). | ||
| Last three opponents | Cody Brundage, Cam Rowston, Edmen Shahbazyan | Tresean Gore, Yousri Belgaroui, Ryan Loder |
Composites, division ranks and round-by-round evidence
Composite scores summarize selected statistics on a 0–100 scale. They are not win probabilities. Compare the underlying metrics, opponent quality and sample flags before interpreting a score difference as a matchup advantage.
Editorial reading of the compiled rate lines
Bekoev 4.57 / 52% and two round-one knockouts. Petroski 2.75 / 49%. Bekoev's 31% defence is why this gauge is not a blowout.
Editorial reading of the compiled rate lines
Petroski 3.13 TD/15, 52% accuracy, 86% TDD, 1.2 Sub/15. Bekoev 3.48 TD/15, 43% accuracy, 0.0 Sub/15.
(Striking + Grappling) / 2
Technical lean to Petroski on defensive wrestling and submission rate.
Recent results
Petroski 0-3. Bekoev 0-2 after 2-0. Neither number is a peak.
Editorial overall
Grappling and the defensive hole outweigh the knockout skid by a small margin.
| Metric | Andre | Azamat |
|---|---|---|
| SLpMSLpMSignificant Strikes Landed per Minute — offensive striking volume. Higher = busier striker. | 2.75 | 4.57 |
| Str Def / SApM | 51% / 2.99 | 31% / 6.83 |
| TD DefTD DefTakedown Defense — share of opponents' takedown attempts stuffed. | 86% | 62% |
| Sub/15Sub/15Submission Attempts per 15 minutes — how actively a fighter hunts the finish on the mat. | 1.2 | 0.0 |
| UFC fights | 13 | 4 |
No archetype base-rate row — editorial 55/45 · The rate lines are the reason this is still a Petroski lean, and the skids are the reason the conviction stays at 4.
| Stat | Andre | Andre rank | Div avg | Azamat rank | Azamat |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SLpMSLpMSignificant Strikes Landed per Minute — offensive striking volume. Higher = busier striker. | 2.75 | — | — | — | 4.57 |
| Str AccStr AccStriking Accuracy — share of significant strikes thrown that land. Higher = more precise. | 49% | — | — | — | 52% |
| Str DefStr DefStriking Defense — share of opponents' significant strikes that do NOT land. Higher = harder to hit. | 51% | — | — | — | 31% |
| SApMSApMSignificant Strikes Absorbed per Minute — how much a fighter gets hit. Lower = better. | 2.99 | — | — | — | 6.83 |
| TD/15TD/15Takedowns Landed per 15 minutes — wrestling pressure / takedown engine. | 3.13 | — | — | — | 3.48 |
| TD Acc | 52% | — | — | — | 43% |
| TD DefTD DefTakedown Defense — share of opponents' takedown attempts stuffed. | 86% | — | — | — | 62% |
| Sub/15Sub/15Submission Attempts per 15 minutes — how actively a fighter hunts the finish on the mat. | 1.2 | — | — | — | 0.0 |
| UFC fights on the page | 13 | — | — | — | 4 |
Statistical VerdictBekoev lands more and has been finished in both of his UFC losses. Petroski is harder to take down, shoots accurately, and has a submission rate Bekoev does not have. The 31% striking defence is the cell that keeps Petroski live even while he is 0-3.
Round-by-round significant-strike figures are unavailable for this comparison. Missing observations are not zero strikes.
Round-by-round control-time figures are unavailable for this comparison. Missing observations are not zero seconds of control.
Critical InsightPetroski's identity on the sheet is control and the choke. His identity in 2025–26 is getting hit first. Bekoev's identity on the sheet is volume plus a defensive leak. His identity in the wins is a round-one knockdown.
Strike-target figures are unavailable for this comparison.
Head hunting vs body work vs leg attack — the shape of the damage. Unavailable strike-target figures are omitted rather than shown as 0%.
The distribution of strikes by range is unavailable for this comparison.
Approximate share of significant strikes by range in available rounds, weighted by strike volume. Incomplete splits are excluded. Debutants / fighters without Octagon samples show as N/A.
Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath
4.57 SLpM against 2.75 — if it stays a striking minute
Two R1 UFC KOs against Petroski's early KO losses
Level changes into fence control in a 25-foot cage
1.2 Sub/15 against 0.0 Sub/15; 86% TDDef
The records say veteran grappler against a 20-5 finisher. The UFC logs say a man on a three-fight skid against a man on a two-fight skid. The rate lines are the reason this is still a Petroski lean, and the skids are the reason the conviction stays at 4.
The 25-foot cage compresses the striking range. That helps Petroski if he is willing to wrestle immediately, and it helps Bekoev if Petroski hesitates, because there is nowhere to reset after a clean punch.
Get the shot in before the counter lands. 86% takedown defence blunts Bekoev's 3.48 rate. 1.2 Sub/15 is the finish if the neck is there the way it was for Maximov. A decision is the other win — Vieira and Budka — if the choke is not there.
86% TDDef.
52% TDAcc.
1.2 Sub/15.
13 UFC fights against 4.
One inch of reach.
Do not circle at range where 2.75 output loses to 4.57.
Ally only after the hands are answered.
Keep it standing for the first two minutes. Petroski's last two knockout losses were over before a wrestling round existed. 4.57 SLpM and the Loder/Reese knockouts are the argument. Do not spend the fight in a body lock at 0.0 Sub/15.
4.57 SLpM and two round-one UFC knockouts.
Five years younger.
20-5.
0-3 with two early knockouts.
Punish the level change.
The Gore fight ended that way. His own 62% TDDef is not 86%.
The fight looks like Rowston or Brundage — clipped on the entry before wrestling exists.
Bekoev's 28% KO bucket cashes early.
First level change lands and Petroski finds the neck — Maximov path.
Control without the finish banks a Vieira/Budka decision.
31% striking defence somehow has to hold for fifteen minutes — least likely of his paths.
6.83 SApM and both UFC losses by finish keep Petroski live even at 0-3.
Bekoev by KO/TKO is the Rowston path and the Loder path — and the reason conviction is 4.
Petroski 0-3. Bekoev 0-2 after 2-0. The lean follows the sheet, narrowly.
Rowston 2:41, Loder 2:44, Reese 3:04 — early power decides before wrestling exists.
Critical InsightNo per-round finish-threat table was published. The clock uses finish times from the UFC logs: early KO risk for Petroski, late-round finishes in Bekoev's losses, and distance wins when Petroski wrestles clean.
One hundred simulated fights, the betting market, and our conviction
Petroski 55% / Bekoev 45%, conviction 4/10 — grappling sheet over recent knockouts, narrowly.
Bekoev KO/TKO 28% is the largest single bucket. Petroski submission and decision are 22% each.
Announced card ranks #56 and #57. Leg reach omitted. No BetOnline price. Not a title fight.
Each square represents one percentage point of the model distribution, not an observed fight. This visualization does not measure model accuracy or reduce uncertainty in the inputs.
Each square = 1 simulated fight. Andre Petroski gold · Azamat Bekoev orange · full color = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.
86% TDDef and 1.2 Sub/15 against 0.0 — Petroski's 22% submission and 22% decision as a pair.
Bekoev 28% KO is the largest single bucket because Petroski's last two losses were early knockouts.
31% striking defence and 6.83 absorbed keep Petroski live.
13 UFC fights against 4.
No BetOnline on the September 22, 2026 board.
Petroski changes levels before the counter, finds the neck — Maximov shape.
Scripted outcomes for Andre Petroski vs Azamat Bekoev — how each version of this fight unfolds.
Smaller share — his recent log does not feature knockouts.
Vieira and Budka version if the choke is not there.
Maximov fight if the entry is clean — pairs with decision at 44% combined.
Largest single bucket. Rowston path and Loder path.
Only if 31% defence somehow holds for fifteen minutes.
Small because UFC rate is 0.0. Gore showed he can be the one in the choke.
EV uses the displayed price: probability × decimal odds − 1. Edge is a percentage-point difference from a proportionally de-vigged, same-book pair. A dash means that comparison is unavailable.
Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.
Fair odds are the break-even price under this estimate, not a recommended entry price. Model uncertainty can erase a small edge.
Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.
Required decimal price: 1.82 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.
Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.
Required decimal price: 2.23 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.
Analyst prop read
No prop carries a clear value lean in this analysis.
Green rows mark props where our analysis sees value at the recorded BetOnline price. Red rows are overpriced relative to the model share. These are snapshots — verify the line is still available before acting.
| Prop | Reference quote | Implied % | Model % | Fair decimal odds | Difference (pp) | Estimated EV | Our read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Petroski by decision | +355 | 22.0% | 22% | 4.55 | +0.0 | +0.1% | Fair price |
| Petroski by submission | +355 | 22.0% | 22% | 4.55 | +0.0 | +0.1% | Fair price |
| Fight does not go the distance | -194 | 66.0% | 66% | 1.52 | +0.0 | +0.0% | Fair price |
| Bekoev by KO/TKO | +257 | 28.0% | 28% | 3.57 | -0.0 | -0.0% | Fair price |
| Fight goes the distance | +194 | 34.0% | 34% | 2.94 | -0.0 | -0.0% | Fair price |
Prop differences use raw implied probability, including the bookmaker margin. They are not the no-vig moneyline edge above.
These notes describe the original analysis and may refer to older prices.
Best lean: Petroski by submission or decision, as a pair, at 44% combined. Bekoev by KO/TKO at 28% is the live contrarian if the skid continues. No market line to call an overlay.
Editorial confidence in the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.
The grappling sheet favors Petroski. The recent knockouts favor Bekoev. The lean follows the sheet, narrowly. Lean: Andre Petroski.
86% takedown defence against a 3.48 takedown rate
1.2 submissions per 15 minutes against 0.0
Bekoev's 31% striking defence and 6.83 absorbed
13 UFC fights against 4
Petroski is 0-3, and two of those losses are early knockouts
Bekoev's two UFC wins are both round-one knockouts
Bekoev is five years younger and lands more per minute
A four-fight defensive rate can be noisy, even when 102-24 against Belgaroui is not noise
In roughly 55 of 100 readings, Andre Petroski gets the fight to the fence, uses the takedown defence and the choke, and wins by submission (22%) or decision (22%), with a smaller knockout share (11%) that his recent log does not feature.
In the other 45, Azamat Bekoev lands first, the way Rowston and Brundage did, and wins by KO/TKO (28%), with a smaller decision share (12%) and a small submission share (5%).
Petroski 55 / Bekoev 45, conviction 4 out of 10. The grappling sheet favors Petroski. The recent knockouts favor Bekoev. The lean follows the sheet, narrowly.
