Renato Moicano vs Tom Nolan: analysis & prediction

MAIN EVENT · LIGHTWEIGHT · 5 ROUNDSUFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan
Renato Moicano — Lightweight fighter

Renato Moicano

“Money”
21W7L1D
Back-take grappler
VS
Tom Nolan — Lightweight fighter

Tom Nolan

“Big Train”
11W1L
Tall knockout lightweight

Eleven career chokes against six-foot-three and a five-fight streak.

LightweightMeta APEX, Las VegasOctober 31, 202625ft Octagon (Small Cage)

Fight overview

The fight in 30 seconds

A 25-foot cage shortens a four-inch height edge. Moicano wins if fence sequences become the rear-naked choke that accounts for 11 of his wins. Nolan wins if the 0.54 knockdown rate lands before that fence.

Paths that change the fight

  • Renato MoicanoClose the four-inch height gap on the fence and turn it into the rear-naked choke that has produced 11 wins.
  • Tom NolanLand the 0.54 knockdown rate before the fence, or steal minutes at length the way the Ziam fight stayed upright.
What limits this estimate · Analyst conviction: 6/10
  • Nolan is 6'3", 26, and on a five-fight streak that includes Ziam.
  • 0.54 knockdowns per 15 minutes, and Moicano has been finished before.

Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

Renato Moicano

Insufficient price data
Model win probability
60%
Fair decimal odds
1.67
Reference quote—

Tom Nolan

Insufficient price data
Model win probability
40%
Fair decimal odds
2.50
Reference quote—
Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Sources and data limitations

Rate lines were compiled September 22, 2026. Moicano 4.10 SLpM, 49% accuracy, 3.55 SApM, 59% defence, 1.68 TD/15, 40% TD accuracy, 64% TD defence, 0.6 Sub/15. Nolan 4.84, 45%, 3.74, 48%, 1.08, 26%, 58%, 1.4, plus 0.54 knockdowns per 15. Takedown accuracy follows the compiled TD/15 line. Card ranks are the announced sheet. No BetOnline price was on the September 22, 2026 board. Per-round strike tables were omitted. Projections are editorial, not a hidden model.

Model methodology
Read the evidenceInspect prices and assumptions
01

The Frame

What this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it

The Analyst's Take

Renato Moicano (21-7-1, card rank #9) meets Tom Nolan (11-1, card rank #29) in a five-round lightweight main event inside the 25-foot Meta APEX cage on October 31, 2026. Moicano's compiled line is 4.10 significant strikes per minute at 49% accuracy, 59% striking defence, 3.55 absorbed, 1.68 takedowns per 15 minutes at 40%, 64% takedown defence and 0.6 submission attempts per 15. He choked Chris Duncan in round two on April 4, 2026. Nolan is 6'3" with a 73-inch reach, 4.84 strikes per minute, 45% accuracy, 48% defence, 0.54 knockdowns per 15 minutes, and a five-fight UFC winning streak capped by a decision over Farès Ziam. An older rank listing showed Nolan at #14. This page keeps the announced #29. Editorial read: Moicano 60%, Nolan 40%, conviction 6 out of 10.

Renato Moicano
Attribute
Tom Nolan
37
Age
11-year gap26
5'11"
Height
+4" Nolan6'3"
72"
Reach
+1" Nolan73"
42.5"
Leg Reach
43"
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
American Top Team
Team
Team Compton Training Centre
Dec 20, 2014
Octagon Debut
Jan 13, 2024
20
UFC bouts
6
#9 lightweight
Card rank
#29 lightweight
Rear-naked choke grappler
Fighting Style
Muay Thai length and power

Nolan is four inches taller and only one inch longer in reach, with a one-inch leg-reach edge. The age gap is eleven years. Moicano has 20 counted UFC bouts. Nolan has six, after a Contender Series knockout that is excluded from that count. Both sit in the green reliability band. The size story is height, not a long-reach kickboxing mismatch.

Venue Factor
The Meta APEX is 25 feet. A four-inch height edge is harder to keep at range in that room. Clinch entries, fence wrestling and back-takes travel a shorter distance. That geometry favors Moicano's rear-naked choke more than Nolan's length.
02

The Fighters

Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage

Renato Moicano throwing a punch in the Octagon

Renato Moicano

Pro Record
21-7-1
UFC Record
20 UFC bouts in the sample file
Streak
Win over Chris Duncan after losses to Islam Makhachev and Beneil Dariush
Finish Rate
62% of wins (13 of 21) — 11 submissions, 2 KO/TKO
Avg Fight Time
9:24
Chin · Finished by Makhachev and, earlier, Fiziev. Recent sample is not a crumbling chin. KD/15 is 0.16.SOS · StrongVeteran back-take grappler

Eleven of Moicano's 21 wins are submissions, listed as rear-naked chokes. Eight are decisions and two are knockouts. His recent ledger runs through a D'Arce loss to Islam Makhachev at 4:05 of round one on January 18, 2025, a decision loss to Beneil Dariush on June 28, 2025, and the Duncan choke at 3:14 of round two on April 4, 2026. He is a submission fighter who has been finished by the champion and outpointed by another grappler, then returned to the choke.

Tom Nolan

Tom Nolan

Pro Record
11-1-0
UFC Record
6 UFC bouts. Contender Series excluded from the sample count.
Streak
Five straight UFC wins, last a decision over Farès Ziam
Finish Rate
55% of wins (6 of 11) — 5 KO/TKO, 1 submission
Avg Fight Time
7:55
Chin · Only professional loss on the UFC log is a 63-second knockout to Nikolas Motta. One data point, and it is the worst kind. KD/15 dealt is 0.54.SOS · DevelopingTall knockout-and-decision lightweight

Nolan's wins split 5 knockouts, 5 decisions and 1 submission. The only loss on the log is the debut, Nikolas Motta, strikes, round one, 1:03, January 13, 2024. Since then he has stopped Victor Martinez, decisioned Alex Reyes, Viacheslav Borshchev and Farès Ziam, and submitted Charlie Campbell. Average fight time 7:55 is shorter than Moicano's 9:24. His nights end earlier, in both directions.

Renato Moicano
0.00 dealt · — absorbed
Knockdown Exchange
KD per 15 minutes. A dash means that figure was not published.
Tom Nolan
0.00 dealt · — absorbed

Renato Moicanosignature weapons

Rear-naked chokeAll 11 submission wins are listed as rear-naked chokes. Latest: Chris Duncan, R2 3:14, April 4, 2026.
×11
Round-two finishDuncan 3:14, Saint Denis at the horn of round two, Turner 4:11. The choke usually arrives in round two, not the first minute.
×3

Tom Nolansignature weapons

Early knockoutFive career KO/TKO wins. Martinez was R1 3:50. Knockdowns per 15 minutes: 0.54.
×5
Decision at rangeFive decision wins, including Ziam, Borshchev and Reyes. The distance path is already on the streak.
×5

Renato Moicano

W
Chris Duncan
Submission — rear-naked choke

Opponent context: ranked

RR2 (3:14)
UFC Fight Night — Apr 4, 2026
L
Beneil Dariush
Decision — unanimous

Opponent context: elite

RR3
UFC — Jun 28, 2025
L
Islam Makhachev
Submission — D'Arce

Opponent context: elite

RR1 (4:05)
UFC — Jan 18, 2025
W
Benoît Saint Denis
TKO — doctor stoppage

Opponent context: ranked

RR2 (5:00)
UFC — Sep 28, 2024
W
Jalin Turner
KO/TKO — strikes

Opponent context: veteran

RR2 (4:11)
UFC — Apr 13, 2024
Pattern

3-2 in the last five. The two losses are a champion and Dariush. The three wins all ended inside the distance, and the freshest is a round-two choke of a ranked lightweight.

Tom Nolan

W
Farès Ziam
Decision — unanimous

Opponent context: ranked

RR3
UFC — Jun 6, 2026
W
Charlie Campbell
Submission — rear-naked choke

Opponent context: ufc

RR1 (4:08)
UFC — Sep 27, 2025
W
Viacheslav Borshchev
Decision — unanimous

Opponent context: ufc

RR3
UFC — Feb 8, 2025
W
Alex Reyes
Decision — unanimous

Opponent context: ufc

RR3
UFC — Aug 17, 2024
W
Victor Martinez
KO/TKO — strikes

Opponent context: ufc

RR1 (3:50)
UFC — May 18, 2024
Pattern

5-0. Three decisions, one first-round choke, one first-round stoppage. Ziam is the best name on the streak and it went the distance. The only career loss remains 63 seconds, so the chin question is unanswered.

Renato Moicano

Win Methods
Wins by Round

Tom Nolan

Win Methods
Wins by Round
Critical Insight
Method charts: Moicano 2 KO / 11 submission / 8 decision of 21 wins, Nolan 5 / 1 / 5 of 11. Round bars are only the finishes named in the recent logs, not a full career round chart. Moicano's named recent finishes sit in round two. Nolan's named finishes sit in round one. Decision totals are the career chart.

Opposition strength (no shared opponents)

Without a reliable shared-opponent table, compare who each fighter has been tested against using SOS tier, UFC sample size, and recent elite-tier form — not raw records alone.

FactorRenatoTom
Strength of schedule (SOS tier)Strong — Announced strength of schedule 57. Recent names include Makhachev, Dariush and Duncan.Developing — Announced strength of schedule 21. Card rank kept at #29.
UFC sample20 UFC bouts in the sample file6 UFC bouts. Contender Series excluded from the sample count.
Recent ranked / elite touches (last 5)2 elite · 1 veteran tier0 elite · 0 veteran tier
Form-window difficulty edge: Fighter A (8 vs 0 tier points in listed bouts).
Last three opponentsChris Duncan, Beneil Dariush, Islam MakhachevFarès Ziam, Charlie Campbell, Viacheslav Borshchev
  • No shared opponent on the verified logs: Not a transitive result. The comparison is cage size, choke ledger and height.
03

The Numbers

Composites, division ranks and round-by-round evidence

Composite scores summarize selected statistics on a 0–100 scale. They are not win probabilities. Compare the underlying metrics, opponent quality and sample flags before interpreting a score difference as a matchup advantage.

Striking

0
Renato
0
Tom

Moicano 4.10 / 49% / 59% defence / 3.55 absorbed. Nolan 4.84 / 45% / 48% / 3.74, plus 0.54 knockdowns per 15.

Grappling

0
Renato
0
Tom

Eleven career chokes and 0.6 Sub/15 against one career submission and a 1.4 rate built on a short clock.

Technical

(Striking + Grappling) / 2

0
Renato
0
Tom

Editorial average of the two gauges above.

Cardio

0
Renato
0
Tom

Moicano averages 9:24 and has five-round history. Nolan averages 7:55, and three of the wins on the streak went to a decision.

Overall

0
Renato
0.0
Tom

Experience and defence, not a talent gap that erases 6'3" and 0.54 knockdowns per 15.

MetricRenatoTom
Striking accuracy49%45%
Standing / clinch / ground83% / 3% / 14%77% / 17% / 6%
Average fight time9:247:55
UFC bouts206
Card rank#9#29

Archetype Base Rate

Back-take grappler 60%40% Tall striker

Editorial read of this booking, not an archetype database row · This page does not force a published wrestler-versus-striker base rate onto the 60/40. The lean is the small cage plus the choke ledger, discounted by height, age and the win streak.

Renato MoicanoTom Nolan

Lightweight

· 57 fighters
StatRenatoRenato rankDiv avgTom rankTom
SLpM4.10
36/57
4.49
21/57
4.84
Str Acc49%
24/57
47.8%
39/57
45%
Str Def59%
7/57
52.3%
45/57
48%
SApM3.55
19/57
4.14
21/57
3.74
KD Avg0.16
44/57
0.51
21/57
0.54
Damage Ratio1.15
24/57
1.16
15/57
1.29
TD/151.68
23/57
1.67
32/57
1.08
TD Acc40%
19/57
35.6%
41/57
26%
TD Def64%
34/57
69.6%
40/57
58%
Sub/150.60
17/57
0.48
6/57elitesmall sample
1.40
Card rank#9———#29
Statistical Verdict
Moicano's 59% striking defence is 7th of 57, and 3.55 absorbed is 19th against a division average of 4.14. Nolan's 4.84 per minute is 21st, not a top-ten rate, and his 0.54 knockdowns per 15 are also 21st. The row that actually separates them is submissions: Nolan's 1.40 attempts per 15 rank 6th, on a short sample, against Moicano's 0.60 at 17th.

Significant Strikes Landed per Round

⚠ R4, R5: single-fight sample for Renato Moicano

Control Time per Round (sec)

Renato Moicano

  • Output climbs with the clock: 15.4 significant strikes in an average first round, 18.4 in the second, 22.7 in the third, across 20, 14 and 7 rounds.
  • The ground share is an early tool. 18.8% of first-round offence is on the mat and 16.8% of second-round offence is. By round three, 92.5% is at distance and the ground share is 5.7%.

Tom Nolan

  • He opens hotter than Moicano, 22.3 and 23.3 significant strikes through two rounds, then drops to 17.0 in the third. Accuracy falls with it, 47.6% to 40.2%.
  • The clinch grows as the fight goes on: 9.9% of round-one offence, 22.7% of round two, 25.3% of round three. Body targets stay near a third of his strikes. He has no fourth or fifth round on the ledger.
Critical Insight
Nolan wins the first two rounds on volume and moves more of that work into the clinch. Moicano's ground offence is front-loaded and his distance output peaks in round three. A fight that is still standing after round two is the version where Nolan's clinch share is highest and Moicano's mat share has already faded.

Strike targeting (available rounds)

Renato

Head
73%
Body
10%
Legs
17%

Tom

Head
50%
Body
32%
Legs
18%

Head hunting vs body work vs leg attack — the shape of the damage.

Striking range — distance, clinch and ground

RenatoTom
83%Distance77%
3%Clinch17%
14%Ground6%

Approximate share of significant strikes by range in available rounds, weighted by strike volume. Incomplete splits are excluded. Debutants / fighters without Octagon samples show as N/A.

04

The Story of the Fight

Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath

Where the fight lives

Who owns each phase — and by how much
Open spaceTom owns it

Nolan is +4 inches and lands 4.84 per minute. The 30-foot version of this fight would be his. This cage is 25.

PocketTom owns it

0.54 knockdowns per 15 minutes. Moicano's 59% defence is the answer, not a guarantee.

ClinchRenato owns it

Nolan already does 17% of his work in the clinch against Moicano's 3%. Tied up is the phase Moicano wants.

GroundRenato owns it

14% of Moicano's strikes are on the ground. Nolan's ground share is 6%. Eleven career chokes live here.

The Deep Read

Nolan already spends more of his striking in the clinch than Moicano does, 17% against 3%. That is not the same as giving up his back, but it is time spent tied up. Moicano's 14% ground share is where the choke lives.

Moicano has been knocked out before and submitted by Makhachev. He is not chinny in the recent sample. Nolan's only loss is a 63-second knockout. One data point, and it is the worst kind. Both men are in the green UFC sample band, 20 bouts against 6, which is why conviction is 6 and not 8.

Path to Victory

Renato Moicano

Close the four-inch height gap on the fence and turn it into the rear-naked choke that has produced 11 wins.

Why they win
01
Eleven chokes

Every submission win on the compiled chart is a rear-naked choke. Duncan is the latest, round two, 3:14.

02
Defence

59% striking defence and 3.55 absorbed against 48% and 3.74.

03
Sample

20 UFC bouts against 6, and the small cage shortens the height edge.

The gameplan
  1. 1
    Fence first

    Pressure to the fence. Do not spend five minutes boxing at the end of Nolan's reach.

  2. 2
    Back take

    Body lock, mat, the choke. Round two is the historical pocket.

Path to Victory

Tom Nolan

Land the 0.54 knockdown rate before the fence, or steal minutes at length the way the Ziam fight stayed upright.

Why they win
01
Size and age

6'3" against 5'11", one extra inch of reach, 26 years old against 37.

02
Knockdowns

0.54 per 15 minutes and five career knockout wins.

03
The streak

Five straight, including a decision over Ziam, at a higher strike rate (4.84 against 4.10).

The gameplan
  1. 1
    Long weapons

    First-layer kicks and the straight shot. Circle off the fence.

  2. 2
    No body lock

    Do not accept a tie-up in a 25-foot cage. The Campbell choke is not the plan.

Danger Zone

How Renato Moicano loses

  • He strikes at the end of a 73-inch reach for empty minutes and eats the early knockdown.

  • The Motta version of Nolan shows up in round one, before a body lock exists.

Danger Zone

How Tom Nolan loses

  • A body lock in a 25-foot cage becomes the Duncan choke in round two.

  • He wins early minutes and still has to survive championship rounds he has not fought.

Clinch time is already Nolan's

Tied up is not a back take. It is the phase Moicano is trying to reach.

17%
of Nolan's strikes in the clinch, against 3% for Moicano

Round two versus round one

Nolan's named finishes are round one. A fight that survives the first five minutes has entered Moicano's window.

R2
where Moicano's recent finishes sit

The Five-Round Clock

Renato Moicano danger windowTom Nolan danger windowNeutral / contested
R1Nolan's window

Martinez, Campbell and the Motta loss all happened in round one.

Critical Insight
Early knockout or a round-two choke. If neither arrives, Moicano's decision share is the rest of a five-round fight.

Finish Threat by Round

Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.

05

The Verdict

One hundred simulated fights, the betting market, and our conviction

If you only read 3 things
1

Moicano 60 / Nolan 40. The lean is the 25-foot cage and 11 career chokes, not a dismissal of 6'3".

2

Nolan's live number is the early knockout, 18%. His only loss was also an early knockout.

3

No BetOnline price was on the September 22 board. Fair odds from this split are Moicano −150 and Nolan +150.

Model outcomes per 100 fights

Each square represents one percentage point of the model distribution, not an observed fight. This visualization does not measure model accuracy or reduce uncertainty in the inputs.

Moicano submission — 26%Moicano decision — 24%Moicano KO/TKO — 10%Nolan KO/TKO — 18%Nolan decision — 16%Nolan submission — 6%

Each square = 1 simulated fight. Renato Moicano gold · Tom Nolan orange · full color = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

The cage

25 feet shortens a four-inch height edge and shortens the path to a body lock.

The choke ledger

Eleven rear-naked chokes against one career submission.

The knockdown rate

Nolan at 0.54 per 15 minutes is the reason this is 60-40 and not wider.

Championship rounds

Nolan has not had to fight past three. This booking is five.

Fight Scripts

0%
of simulations

The Duncan choke

Moicano gets the fence, the back, and the rear-naked choke, most often in the round-two window his recent finishes share.

Scripted outcomes for Renato Moicano vs Tom Nolan — how each version of this fight unfolds.

Renato Moicano win probability
0%
10%
24%
26%
KO/TKODECSUB

  • Two career knockouts. The 10% matches that ledger.

  • Eight career decision wins. The minutes path if the choke does not land.

  • The largest bucket. Eleven career rear-naked chokes. Duncan is the template.

Tom Nolan win probability
0%
18%
16%
6%
KO/TKODECSUB

  • The live upset, concentrated early. Five career knockouts and 0.54 KD/15.

  • The Ziam path stretched to five rounds.

  • The Campbell choke. Not the plan.

Projected Scorecards

How the model scores each round
R1
Tom
R2
Renato
R3
Renato
R4
Renato
R5
Renato
48-47
If Nolan steals round one and Moicano takes the rest
The distance path, 40% combined
Inside R2
Most likely finish window
Moicano submission 26%

Model and price

Renato Moicano

Insufficient price data
Model win probability
60%
Fair decimal odds
1.67
Reference quote—
Estimated EV
—
Edge vs no-vig market
—

Tom Nolan

Insufficient price data
Model win probability
40%
Fair decimal odds
2.50
Reference quote—
Estimated EV
—
Edge vs no-vig market
—

EV uses the displayed price: probability × decimal odds − 1. Edge is a percentage-point difference from a proportionally de-vigged, same-book pair. A dash means that comparison is unavailable.

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Fair odds are the break-even price under this estimate, not a recommended entry price. Model uncertainty can erase a small edge.

What price would change the calculation? · Renato Moicano

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Required decimal price: 1.67 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

What price would change the calculation? · Tom Nolan

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Required decimal price: 2.50 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

Analyst prop read

0 value leans3 fair0 avoid

No prop carries a clear value lean in this analysis.

Full prop table (3)Expand for odds, model %, implied % and analyst verdict per prop

Green rows mark props where our analysis sees value at the recorded BetOnline price. Red rows are overpriced relative to the model share. These are snapshots — verify the line is still available before acting.

Prop probabilities, break-even prices and analyst verdict at the recorded quote.
PropReference quoteImplied %Model %Fair decimal oddsDifference (pp)Estimated EVOur read
Moicano by submission+285Fair odds26.0%26%3.85+0.0+0.1%Fair price
Nolan by KO/TKO+456Fair odds18.0%18%5.56+0.0+0.1%Fair price
Fight goes the distance+150Fair odds40.0%40%2.500.00.0%Fair price

Prop differences use raw implied probability, including the bookmaker margin. They are not the no-vig moneyline edge above.

Original analyst price notes

These notes describe the original analysis and may refer to older prices.

Moicano by submission at 26% is the structural read. Nolan by KO/TKO at 18% is the upset that has to arrive before the fence. There is no BetOnline line on this file to call an overlay.

Conviction
0
6/10

Editorial confidence in the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

The small cage and the choke ledger are clear. Height, age and a five-fight streak keep Nolan at 40. Lean: Renato Moicano.

What backs the lean

  • 11 career submission wins, all rear-naked chokes, and a fresh one against Duncan.

  • 59% striking defence against 48%, and 20 UFC bouts against 6.

  • A 25-foot cage shortens a four-inch height edge.

What limits it

  • Nolan is 6'3", 26, and on a five-fight streak that includes Ziam.

  • 0.54 knockdowns per 15 minutes, and Moicano has been finished before.

  • Nolan's only loss was a 63-second knockout, so the chin is unanswered rather than proven.

Final Assessment

In roughly 60 of 100 readings, Renato Moicano closes the distance in the small cage and wins by submission (26%), decision (24%) or knockout (10%). Duncan is the finish template. The decision is what happens when the choke does not arrive.

In the other 40, Tom Nolan uses 6'3" and the knockdown rate to end it early (18%), or he outranges Moicano for a decision (16%). The submission branch is 6% because Campbell happened. It is not the plan.

Moicano 60 / Nolan 40, conviction 6 out of 10. Fair odds −150 / +150. No BetOnline price to compare.

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