Two unbeaten heavyweights after a withdrawal. The measured opponent is off the card.
Fight overview
Sutherland withdrew. The live fight is Mahjoub (5-0) against Faglier (6-0). Both were booked without a UFC rate line. Sutherland’s 4.49 takedowns per 15 describe a man who is not fighting. No win probability is assigned.
Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.
Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.
analysis/FightNight-BuckleyMalott/mahjoub-vs-faglier.md. Sherdog headshot already stored for Mahjoub.
Model methodologySutherland is off the card
The retired file sutherland-vs-mahjoub.md handicapped a different opponent. Mahjoub’s September 10 review found no completed UFC bouts, age 35, born in Mashhad, and an Octagon debut already set for October 17. Height and reach were not on that profile. The 5-0 record is the booking sheet, not a UFC.com verification. Faglier is 6-0 on the same sheet, with UFC bouts stored as 0. No physicals, no methods, no last five. An ESPN page for Jason Faglier Jr. (0-2, born 1992) is a different fighter and is not used as this photo. Joel’s image is the Tapology letterbox supplied for this bout.
Heavyweight without height and reach is a fight with the scale missing. At 265, 6'2" against 6'5" would be the matchup. Both numbers are blank.
Venue FactorThree rounds in Edmonton. Mahjoub was preparing for Sutherland, who had a logged takedown rate. Faglier is not that fighter. The sheet did not say who is on short notice beyond Sutherland out, Faglier in.
Two booking records, one photo
He was already the scheduled debutant when the opponent was Sutherland. The opponent changed. The 5-0 did not become a rate.
There is no measured fighter left in the bout. Sutherland was the measured fighter.
No completed UFC results. The five wins are not listed.
No results. A last-five with blank invented names would pretend the research was done.
Critical InsightNo method split. Calling both men round-one knockout artists because they are heavyweights would be a division stereotype. Five-and-oh and six-and-oh do not say the wins were finishes.
Without a reliable shared-opponent table, compare who each fighter has been tested against using SOS tier, UFC sample size, and recent elite-tier form — not raw records alone.
| Factor | Javad | Joel |
|---|---|---|
| Strength of schedule (SOS tier) | Debut — Non-UFC wins that make up the 5-0 were not listed. | Debut on the stored count — One win deeper on paper than 5-0. Deeper is arithmetic, not quality. |
| UFC sample | No completed UFC bouts on the September 10 review | None stored |
| Recent ranked / elite touches (last 5) | 0 elite · 0 veteran tier | 0 elite · 0 veteran tier |
| Form-window tier points tied in the last-five sample — compare SOS notes and methods, not volume alone. | ||
| Last three opponents | — | — |
No UFC rates
Composite scores summarize selected statistics on a 0–100 scale. They are not win probabilities. Compare the underlying metrics, opponent quality and sample flags before interpreting a score difference as a matchup advantage.
Withheld
Both columns are empty on purpose.
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Both columns are empty on purpose.
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Both columns are empty on purpose.
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Both columns are empty on purpose.
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Both columns are empty on purpose.
| Metric | Javad | Joel |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 5-0 | 6-0 |
| UFC bouts | 0 | 0 stored |
| Age | 35 | Not suppliedsmall sample |
| Reach | Not availablesmall sample | Not availablesmall sample |
No model sample · winPctA is 0 because no probability was assigned. Two perfect records are not a lean.
| Stat | Javad | Javad rank | Div avg | Joel rank | Joel |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SLpMSLpMSignificant Strikes Landed per Minute — offensive striking volume. Higher = busier striker. | Not available | — | — | — | Not available |
| TD/15TD/15Takedowns Landed per 15 minutes — wrestling pressure / takedown engine. | Not available | — | — | — | Not available |
| Record | 5-0 booking | — | — | — | 6-0 booking |
Statistical VerdictThere is no technical comparison.
Round-by-round significant-strike figures are unavailable for this comparison. Missing observations are not zero strikes.
Round-by-round control-time figures are unavailable for this comparison. Missing observations are not zero seconds of control.
Critical InsightSutherland’s log (Montanha, Tuivasa, Peričić, Walker) stays in the retired file.
Strike-target figures are unavailable for this comparison.
Head hunting vs body work vs leg attack — the shape of the damage. Unavailable strike-target figures are omitted rather than shown as 0%.
The distribution of strikes by range is unavailable for this comparison.
Approximate share of significant strikes by range in available rounds, weighted by strike volume. Incomplete splits are excluded. Debutants / fighters without Octagon samples show as N/A.
What the withdrawal changes
No striking rates.
No striking rates.
Sutherland’s takedown rate is not Faglier’s.
No submission rates.
Survive a debut against a man he did not spend the camp studying. The Price-style back take from other cards is not his filmed tool. Nothing on his profile is a filmed UFC tool.
The debut date was October 17 before the opponent changed.
The Sherdog crop already stored on the event page.
4.49 takedowns per 15 and 33% takedown defence were his. They are not Faglier’s.
No style is assigned. The two things the sheet knows are 6-0 and a zero bout count.
The 4.49 takedown rate, the 11-6 record, and the losing stretch left with the withdrawal.
One more win on paper. Not a quality word.
A heavyweight stereotype is not a gameplan.
The week of work was for a wrestler who is not across the cage.
Five wins against novices meet a finisher. This file cannot say Faglier is that finisher.
He is the short-notice side walking into a man who has had the date circled.
A perfect regional record at heavyweight often hides the level of the wins. Level is not in this file.
A preview that says UFC guy versus debutant is the old fight. This version is debutant versus debutant unless a UFC.com row for Faglier appears.
They are the least informative perfect records in the sport. Five wins can be novices or a serious finishing run.
ESPN 4285668 is 0-2 and born in 1992. He is not Joel Faglier. Joel’s photo is the Tapology letterbox, not that ESPN headshot.
No finish times.
Critical InsightThree rounds. No historical clock exists for either man.
Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.
No calibrated probability
No win probability.
Mahjoub’s photo is the Sherdog crop already on the card. He is 35, from Mashhad, 5-0 on the booking, with no UFC fights on the September review.
Joel Faglier’s photo is the Tapology letterbox. Jason Faglier Jr. is a different fighter.
Each square represents one percentage point of the model distribution, not an observed fight. This visualization does not measure model accuracy or reduce uncertainty in the inputs.
Each square = 1 simulated fight. Javad Mahjoub gold · Joel Faglier orange · full color = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.
Sutherland out. Faglier in.
Height and reach are blank on both sides.
Neither 5-0 nor 6-0 has a last five.
A script percentage would be a model.
Scripted outcomes for Javad Mahjoub vs Joel Faglier — how each version of this fight unfolds.
Not assigned.
Not assigned.
Not assigned.
Not assigned.
Not assigned.
Not assigned.
EV uses the displayed price: probability × decimal odds − 1. Edge is a percentage-point difference from a proportionally de-vigged, same-book pair. A dash means that comparison is unavailable.
Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.
Fair odds are the break-even price under this estimate, not a recommended entry price. Model uncertainty can erase a small edge.
Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.
Enter a probability above 0 and below 100, and a target EV from 0 to 100.
Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.
Enter a probability above 0 and below 100, and a target EV from 0 to 100.
No prop prices recorded in this analysis.
These notes describe the original analysis and may refer to older prices.
None.
Editorial confidence in the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.
Conviction is 0. The page is the full template so the withdrawal and the missing measurements are written out. It is not a pick. Lean: No side.
Nothing is listed as a lean.
No UFC rates on either side.
No height or reach.
Faglier has no verified photo id.
Mahjoub’s debut is still October 17. The man he prepared for is not the man in the other corner.
Faglier is a 6-0 name without a log and without a photo this page will borrow from a different Faglier. That is the whole file.
