Neil Magny vs Ramiz Brahimaj
Welterweight Bout • UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry
Saturday, August 15, 2026 • Xfinity Mobile Arena, Philadelphia
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Neil Magny
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Ramiz Brahimaj
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Neil Magny
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-13 | Yaroslav Amosov | L | Submission - Anaconda Choke (R1, 3:14) |
| 2025-09-27 | Jake Matthews | W | Submission - D'Arce Choke (R3, 3:08) |
| 2025-08-02 | Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | W | KO/TKO - Punches (R2, 4:39) |
| 2024-11-09 | Carlos Prates | L | KO - Punch (R1, 4:50) |
| 2024-08-24 | Michael Morales | L | TKO - Punches (R1, 4:39) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Ramiz Brahimaj
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-21 | Punahele Soriano | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-10-04 | Austin Vanderford | W | Submission - Guillotine (R2, 2:24) |
| 2025-05-31 | Billy Ray Goff | W | Submission - Guillotine (R1, 3:16) |
| 2024-11-16 | Mickey Gall | W | KO - Punches (R1, 2:55) |
| 2024-05-18 | Themba Gorimbo | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (49 vs 37) and Grappling Composite (41 vs 44). Magny is the sharper, more complete striker; Brahimaj edges the grappling on one elite number (Sub/15 1.60) — but the fight's real separation lives in the Cardio Score below.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Visual comparison of key performance metrics between both fighters
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Neil Magny Key Advantages
Magny's +8" reach and +5" height against a low-output grappler is arguably the single largest exploitable geometry gap on the card, and every inch of it belongs to the older man. If he fights long — jab, teep, snap kicks, lateral movement — he can keep Brahimaj on the end of his strikes for 15 minutes and deny him the clinch entirely. Brahimaj has no counter to range: his striking (2.29 SLpM, 47% defense) simply cannot cross that gulf, and everything he throws is only a toll paid to reach the grapple. Discipline, not defense, is the variable — if Magny refuses the phone booth, the standing phase is a rout in his favor.
Magny is a back-half fighter with one of the deepest tanks in welterweight history; Brahimaj is a front-half fighter who has never won a decision and fades in Round 3. Every minute the fight stays competitive and un-finished bends the math toward Magny — he does not need to hurt Brahimaj, he needs to out-last him, the exact skill his 17 decision wins were built on. His finishes even arrive late (R2 Zaleski, R3 Matthews, R3 Malott): the deeper the water, the more Magny wins. Against an opponent whose effectiveness collapses the longer a fight lasts, the clock is a weapon that only cuts one way.
Magny out-volumes Brahimaj (3.40 vs 2.29 SLpM) and absorbs dramatically less (2.44 vs 3.27 SApM) — hard to hit and busy, the ideal recipe against a grappler who must close distance to work. Layer on thirteen years, ~37 UFC fights, the divisional record for wins, and a résumé that includes Robbie Lawler and Rafael dos Anjos: in the composure of a scramble or a championship-pace Round 3, the experience edge is enormous. And he is no fish on the mat — a BJJ black belt with 5 career subs and 55% takedown defense (better than Brahimaj's 45%). The danger is his own offense, not a lack of defense.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Magny gets careless with his own takedown attempts (2.17 per 15 at just 25% accuracy), shoots into a front headlock, and his freshly-cracked submission defense fails again — a Round 1 Amosov replay against an even more dedicated choke artist. Every failed Magny shot is a chance to lose his neck, and it is exactly the genre of exchange that ended his most recent fight. At 38 with three first-round finish losses in his last five, his margin for a single bad grappling error is now razor-thin.
Magny lets Brahimaj close the distance and initiate clinch scrambles instead of keeping the fight at range, gets dragged down while Brahimaj is still fresh, and is submitted before his cardio advantage can ever matter. His mediocre striking defense (52%) betrays him against a desperate early flurry, he is momentarily hurt, and the grappler capitalizes on the scramble. Any clean sequence in Round 1 — his most vulnerable, most-finished round — could be the one that ends it before the deep water he owns is ever reached.
📋 Likely Gameplan
This is the whole fight. Magny should use every inch of the eight-inch reach — jab, teep and lateral footwork — and make Brahimaj chase, making every entry cost him. He must refuse the clinch and the scramble: no collar ties, no brawling in the pocket, and above all no takedown shots into the guillotine. Keep it a kickboxing match at range, where Brahimaj's 2.29 SLpM and 47% defense are hopelessly out-gunned and his one elite phase never opens.
Magny must survive Brahimaj's Round 1 finishing window, then let volume and pace compound into Rounds 2 and 3 where Brahimaj fades. If it does hit the mat, don't try to win the grappling — defend the neck, protect against the front headlock, and stand back up to the feet where every advantage is his. Against a man with zero career decision wins, Magny does not need the finish: he needs to be the busier, longer, fresher fighter for 15 minutes and let the scorecards do what they have done 17 times.
🚀 Ramiz Brahimaj Key Advantages
This is the entire case for the underdog, and it is a real one. Brahimaj's Sub/15 of 1.60 (3.2× the division norm) and 12 career submissions are aimed directly at a man who was choked out in Round 1 of his most recent fight — the Amosov anaconda, from the exact front-headlock family Brahimaj specializes in. On any scramble, any failed Magny shot, any clinch that hits the mat, his guillotine-and-RNC game is a legitimate fight-ender against a proven-vulnerable target. He does not need to win the fight; he needs one moment.
Five years younger and never cleanly finished — Brahimaj's lone stoppage loss was a freak ear injury, not a strike — he can absorb Magny's volume, walk through the early exchanges, and keep hunting, the one thing Magny's game requires his opponent not to do. And Magny's own wrestling is a trap: 2.17 takedown attempts per 15 at just 25% accuracy means a lot of failed shots, and every failed shot against a guillotine artist is a chance to lose your neck. Where Magny's early durability is a documented question at 38, Brahimaj's is a strength — he needs only one moment while Magny must be perfect for a full 15 minutes.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Magny fights long and disciplined, refuses every clinch, and picks Brahimaj apart from eight inches of range for three rounds — a Gorimbo/Soriano rerun against a longer, busier, more experienced opponent. Brahimaj loses a wide decision he was never equipped to win, extending a career-long void: he has zero decision wins in 20 professional fights, and the scorecards have never once rescued him. Every minute the fight stays standing is a minute he is being beaten.
His weak takedown offense (14% accuracy) fails repeatedly, he can't get Magny down, and the fight stays standing where he is hopelessly out-gunned. Or he empties his tank hunting an early finish that never comes, fades hard in Round 2, and Magny's back-half surge finishes him late — the way Zaleski and Matthews went — or buries him on the cards. Worst of all, Magny is himself a black belt: reverse a scramble, end up on top, and grind out control time, and Brahimaj's one advantage is turned against him.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Brahimaj cannot win at range, so he must erase it from the opening bell — pressure, level changes, collar ties and guillotine entries before Magny settles into rhythm. Make it ugly and grappling-heavy: turn every exchange into a clinch or a scramble, deny Magny clean space, clean range, and the clean volume that wins him rounds. The one skill that wins him this fight only exists on the mat, so every second spent at kickboxing distance is a second wasted.
Brahimaj should bait or capitalize on Magny's inefficient takedown attempts and lock the front headlock — the exact sequence that finished Magny against Amosov. His entire competitive window is the first ten minutes, so he must empty the clip on the mat while fresh and never let this become a three-round striking contest. With no decision path available, aggression is not optional — it is the only route to victory, and it must arrive early.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Reach, Cardio & the Choke — One Binary Question
This is a styles-and-geometry welterweight matchup with one of the widest physical gaps on the card. On one side stands the most decorated welterweight in UFC history by wins (24) — a 38-year-old, 6'3", 80"-reach volume gatekeeper and BJJ black belt who takes the overwhelming majority of his fights to the scorecards. On the other, a 33-year-old, one-dimensional submission ace who has won 12 of his 13 victories by submission and zero by decision. The reach, the volume, the cardio and the decision-winning résumé belong to Magny; the chokes — and Magny's freshly-exposed vulnerability to exactly them — belong to Brahimaj. The fight reduces to one question: can Brahimaj drag Magny to the mat and find the neck before eight inches of reach and fifteen minutes of volume pick him apart on the feet?
🎯Technical Breakdown — The Arithmetic
On the feet the arithmetic is lopsided. Magny out-reaches Brahimaj by eight inches, out-volumes him (3.40 vs 2.29 SLpM), and absorbs far less (2.44 vs 3.27 SApM) — every minute spent standing at range is a minute Magny wins, against a grappler who has never won a decision in 20 fights. But unlike a pure kickboxing match, the mat is not removed from this equation — it is the crux. Magny's takedown defense is only 55% and he was just submitted in Round 1 by Amosov, so if the fight hits the floor while Brahimaj is fresh, none of the standing advantages matter. The tension is sharp: Brahimaj's own takedown offense is weak (14% accuracy), so his likeliest route to the neck is countering Magny's inefficient shots (25% accuracy) rather than a clean level change. If Magny strikes and refuses to wrestle, Brahimaj may never reach his one elite phase.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Three battles decide it: the Round 1 scramble (can Brahimaj get it down and find the neck early?), Magny's discipline (does he keep it at range or wrestle into danger?), and the cardio gap. That cardio gap is the single widest number in the analysis — a Magny score of ~72, a 13-year tank built on 17 decision wins, against Brahimaj's ~48, a finish-or-fade specialist who was out-worked in the championship rounds in both his decision losses. Magny is a back-half fighter; Brahimaj is a front-half fighter. Round 1 is the danger round for both — it is Magny's most-finished round and Brahimaj's most-finishing round — but if Magny survives the first seven or eight minutes, the fight tilts sharply and permanently his way. Brahimaj must find the neck early; Magny must simply refuse to be grappled long enough for the clock to hand him the fight.
🏁Final Prediction
The single most likely outcome is Neil Magny by Decision (34%) — his 17-decision résumé, eight-inch reach, superior volume and deep cardio against an opponent who has never won a decision and fades in Round 3. His KO/TKO path (18%) reflects real late-round finishing ability against a poor-defense (47%), low-output grappler who tires, mostly in Rounds 2–3; a modest submission share (8%) rounds out his BJJ-black-belt game. Brahimaj's entire path is his submission (30%) — elevated well above his mid-tier competition specifically because of Magny's freshly-exposed neck — concentrated in Rounds 1–2 and capped below a coin-flip by his weak takedown offense. The fight is a race between Magny's discipline and Brahimaj's one great weapon, and Magny's path is both wider and more sustainable.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 30% | Implied: 33.3% (fair-to-live dog value — his entire path)
GOOD VALUE
Model: 34% | Implied: 47.6% (the favorite's likeliest single outcome — the disciplined play if the price lengthens)
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 38% | Implied: 40.0% (fair — Magny's decision is his single likeliest outcome; Brahimaj has none)
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Underprices Brahimaj's submission threat – The public line leans on Magny's pedigree, reach and 17 decision wins, treating an elite front-headlock finisher (Sub/15 1.60, 12 career subs) aimed at a neck cracked by Amosov just three fights ago as an afterthought.
- • Over-prices a straight Magny decision – His 17 decisions and eight-inch reach are real, but against a live submission ace on an exposed neck, a clean decision at −110-ish is no lock; the model has it at 34%.
- • Respects the Gorimbo/Soriano blueprint – Durable grapplers who survived Brahimaj's early hunt out-worked him to the cards every time; Magny is longer and busier than both, which supports the favorite side over 15 minutes.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Neil Magny
Primary path — 17 career decisions, reach & cardio bury a fading grappler
Late-round accumulation on a tiring, poor-defense opponent (R2–R3)
BJJ black belt — 5 career subs; opportunistic on top in a scramble
💥Outcome Distribution - Ramiz Brahimaj
His entire path — Sub/15 1.60, 12 career subs, aimed at a cracked neck
Token figure — 1 career KO; not a volume or power striker
Rounding-level token — 0 career decision wins in 20 fights
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Path to Victory - Neil Magny
- • Survive Round 1: his most-finished round (three straight early losses) is the one to weather.
- • Rounds 2–3 are his: cardio, volume and 8 inches of reach take over as Brahimaj fades.
- • Trust the cards: 17 career decisions against an opponent who has never won one.
🎯Finish Window - Ramiz Brahimaj
- • Rounds 1–2 are everything: Sub/15 1.60 and 12 career subs, almost all early.
- • Hunt the neck: lock the front headlock on every Magny shot — the Amosov R1 blueprint.
- • No decision path: he has never won a fight that reached Round 3.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Clear but guarded lean to Magny — Brahimaj's submission threat is a live, ever-present equalizer
✅Supporting Factors
- • Eight-inch reach & five-inch height edge over a grappler who can't strike (2.29 SLpM)
- • Cardio & the clock: 17 career decisions vs Brahimaj's zero; Brahimaj fades in R3
- • Brahimaj's takedown offense is poor (14% acc, 45% TDD) — hard to drag Magny down
- • The blueprint exists: Gorimbo & Soriano survived the hunt and out-worked him
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Elite submission rate (Sub/15 1.60, 12 subs) aimed at a neck cracked by Amosov (R1) three fights ago
- • Magny's own inefficient wrestling (25% TDAcc) is a guillotine invitation
- • Magny is 38 with three first-round finish losses in his last five
- • Brahimaj needs one moment; Magny must be disciplined for a full 15 minutes
🏁Executive Summary
Across 100 simulations the fight resolves into two clean, opposing stories. In roughly 60 of them, Neil Magny's length, volume and cardio carry the night — either by keeping the fight at the end of his eight-inch reach and out-working a one-dimensional grappler over three rounds (his single most likely outcome, 34%), or by breaking down a fading, poor-defense Brahimaj for a late TKO or opportunistic submission (26% combined). The blueprint is proven and recent: Gorimbo and Soriano both survived Brahimaj's early hunt, denied the neck, and won the rounds — and Magny is longer, busier and more decorated than either. In the other 40, Ramiz Brahimaj does the one thing he does better than almost anyone in the division: a scramble, a failed Magny shot, a clinch that hits the mat, and the front-headlock choke on a neck that failed against Amosov just three fights ago (30% submission, almost all of it in Rounds 1–2). He does not need to win the fight — he needs one moment.
Prediction: Magny by Decision most likely (34% probability) through his reach, volume, cardio and the only résumé here that knows how to win a decision; Brahimaj's upset lane is his submission (30%), concentrated in Rounds 1–2 against a freshly-exposed neck. This is a race between the gatekeeper's discipline and the grappler's one great weapon — and Magny's path is both wider and more sustainable.