Tainara Lisboa vs Lucia Szabová: analysis & prediction

PRELIM · WOMEN'S BANTAMWEIGHT · 3 ROUNDSUFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan
Tainara Lisboa — Women's Bantamweight fighter

Tainara Lisboa

“Thai Panther”
7W4L
Low-Volume UFC Vet
VS
Lucia Szabová — Women's Bantamweight fighter

Lucia Szabová

“Silent Killer”
12W0L
Undefeated Oktagon Champion

A 2-2 UFC rate line against a 12-0 regional double champion

Women's BantamweightMeta APEX, Las VegasOctober 31, 202625ft Octagon (Small Cage)

Fight overview

The fight in 30 seconds

Szabová brings a 12-0 Oktagon résumé and recent finishes into a 25-foot cage; Lisboa owns the only UFC rate line, and it is a 2-2 sample with two late finishes against her. The lean is the undefeated debutante — conviction stays low because her Octagon sample is empty.

Paths that change the fight

  • Tainara LisboaMake it ugly and long enough that a debutante's first Octagon night becomes a decision. 1.67 TD/15 is the tool, even at 31% accuracy. Clark choke in round three and Oliveira decision are the only UFC win templates.
  • Lucia SzabováUse the judo base and the finishing habit that stopped Bolander, Faria and Fernandes. Do not assume a five-round pace — Pudilová was five rounds; this is three.
What limits this estimate · Analyst conviction: 4/10
  • Szabová has zero UFC fights — the rate line does not exist
  • Lisboa has already won and lost in this cage

Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

Tainara Lisboa

Insufficient price data
Model win probability
38%
Fair decimal odds
2.63
Reference quote—

Lucia Szabová

Insufficient price data
Model win probability
62%
Fair decimal odds
1.61
Reference quote—
Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Sources and data limitations

Compiled September 22, 2026. Lisboa compiled rate line and four-fight log (7-4-0; SLpM 2.01, Str Acc 44%, SApM 2.88, Str Def 45%, TD/15 1.67, TD Acc 31%, TD Def 53%, Sub/15 0.3). Szabová has no UFC rate line — zeros in the Fighter stats object are unpublished placeholders, not measured rates. Record 12-0, age 28, height 172 cm, Hanuman Gym, and 64% finish rate are the compiled regional ledger. Reach and stance for Szabová are unpublished. Place of birth omitted for both. Knockdown totals unpublished (kdDealt/kdAbsorbed set to 0). Per-round strike tables omitted. No BetOnline price on the September 22, 2026 board. ELO excluded.

Model methodology
Read the evidenceInspect prices and assumptions
01

The Frame

What this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it

The Analyst's Take

Three-round women's bantamweight preliminary in the 25-foot APEX cage. Tainara "Thai Panther" Lisboa is 7-4, card rank #25, fight-night age 35, orthodox, 5'7" with a 67" reach. Compiled rate line across four fights: 2.01 SLpM, 44% accuracy, 45% striking defence, 2.88 SApM, 1.67 TD/15 at 31%, 53% takedown defence and 0.3 Sub/15 — she is 2-2 on that ledger, with the last two a round-three knockout loss to Melissa Croden and a keylock loss to Luana Santos. Lucia "Silent Killer" Szabová is 12-0, fight-night age 28, 172 cm, judo background, Hanuman Gym Bratislava. She has no UFC fights and no UFC rate line. She is the Oktagon bantamweight champion and, after a round-three stoppage of Leidiane Fernandes, the promotion's flyweight champion as well. Her last win was a five-round decision over Lucie Pudilová on August 1, 2026, at 134.8 lbs. We take Szabová 62% / Lisboa 38% at conviction 4 / 10.

Tainara Lisboa
Attribute
Lucia Szabová
35
Age
7-year gap28
5'7"
Height
~1" Szabová (172 cm)5'8"
67"
Reach
Unpublished
N/A
Leg Reach
N/A
Orthodox
Stance
Unpublished
Not listed
Team
Hanuman Gym Bratislava
May 13, 2023 (Clark)
Octagon Debut
Oct 31, 2026 (this fight)
#25
Card Rank
Unranked
Low-volume wrestling into late grappling
Fighting Style
Judo clinch / finishing habit

Lisboa is the shorter woman by roughly an inch and seven years older. Reach for Szabová is not published, so no reach edge is claimed. Lisboa has four UFC bouts; Szabová has zero. The pair is a small UFC sample — a UFC vet against a taller debutante.

Venue Factor
The APEX is 25 feet. That helps the woman who wants ties. Szabová's recent wins include a standing americana and a mount finish. Lisboa's UFC rate is low volume with a modest takedown rate. Neither profile is a long-range kickboxing specialist.
02

The Fighters

Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage

Tainara Lisboa

Tainara Lisboa

Pro Record
7-4-0
UFC Record
2-2 across four bouts on the compiled ledger
Streak
Two straight UFC losses, both finishes (Croden KO, Santos keylock)
Finish Rate
1 of 2 UFC wins by submission; 0 UFC KO/TKO wins on the page
Avg Fight Time
Not published as a career average
Chin · Finished twice in the UFC — both late (R2 4:59 keylock; R3 4:32 punches). kdDealt/kdAbsorbed unpublished (0 placeholders).SOS · Announced SOS 10Low-output Octagon wrestler

Lisboa's two UFC wins are a unanimous decision over Ravena Oliveira and a rear-naked choke of Jessica-Rose Clark. The other five pro wins and two pro losses that make the record 7-4 are outside the compiled UFC ledger and are not given methods here. The rate line underneath — 2.01 SLpM at 44% accuracy, 45% defence, 2.88 SApM, 1.67 TD/15 at 31% — is the only measured UFC profile in the fight, and it belongs to a fighter who is 0-2 in her last two.

Lucia Szabová

Lucia Szabová

Pro Record
12-0-0 (Oktagon page)
UFC Record
0-0 — Octagon debut
Streak
Undefeated; five-round title defence over Pudilová, then flyweight title via Fernandes
Finish Rate
Oktagon lists 64% finish rate and 36% of wins by submission (promotion summary, not a reconstructed 12-fight chart)
Avg Fight Time
No UFC sample
Chin · No UFC knockdown data. Unbeaten on the Oktagon page. kdDealt/kdAbsorbed unpublished (0 placeholders).SOS · Regional / Oktagon titlesJudo-based regional double champion

Szabová is the Oktagon bantamweight and flyweight champion. Last five: unanimous decision over Lucie Pudilová (5 rounds, August 1, 2026), TKO of Leidiane Fernandes (R3 2:12), TKO of Cecilie Bolander (R1 3:11), standing americana of Kalindra Faria (R1 4:16), unanimous decision over Aitana Álvarez. The older seven wins are not assigned methods in the source file. There is no SLpM, accuracy, or takedown rate to print — inventing one from Oktagon round scoring would be false.

Tainara Lisboa
— dealt · — absorbed
Knockdown Exchange
KD dealt vs absorbed. A dash means that figure was not published.
Lucia Szabová
— dealt · — absorbed

Tainara Lisboasignature weapons

Late Rear-Naked ChokeJessica-Rose Clark, R3 4:20 — matches 0.3 Sub/15 on the UFC line
×1
Decision Wrestling MinutesRavena Oliveira UD3 — 1.67 TD/15 at 31% accuracy is the tool, not the finish
×1

Lucia Szabovásignature weapons

Standing Americana / Judo ClinchKalindra Faria, R1 4:16 — listed judo base with finishing habit
×1
Elbow-and-Punch TKOBolander R1 3:11 and Fernandes R3 2:12 in the recent five
×2

Tainara Lisboa

L
Melissa Croden
KO/TKO — punches

Opponent context: ufc

RR3 (4:32)
UFC — Oct 18, 2025
L
Luana Santos
Submission — keylock

Opponent context: ufc

RR2 (4:59)
UFC — May 17, 2025
W
Ravena Oliveira
Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: ufc

RR3
UFC — Oct 14, 2023
W
Jessica-Rose Clark
Submission — rear-naked choke

Opponent context: ufc

RR3 (4:20)
UFC — May 13, 2023
Pattern

Lisboa has four UFC fights, so the log stops there. Both wins reached the championship round of a three-round fight. Both losses were finishes — late, not first-minute blowouts.

Lucia Szabová

W
Lucie Pudilová
Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: veteran

RR5
Oktagon — Aug 1, 2026 (135 title)
W
Leidiane Fernandes
TKO — elbows and punches

Opponent context: prospect

RR3 (2:12)
Oktagon — Apr 25, 2026 (125 title)
W
Cecilie Bolander
TKO — elbows and punches

Opponent context: prospect

RR1 (3:11)
Oktagon — Aug 9, 2025 (135 title)
W
Kalindra Faria
Submission — standing americana

Opponent context: veteran

RR1 (4:16)
Oktagon — Feb 22, 2025
W
Aitana Álvarez
Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: prospect

RR3
Oktagon — Jul 20, 2024
Pattern

Szabová's last five are all wins. No UFC row exists. Three of five are finishes; one decision was a five-round title fight against a woman with a long UFC career. This booking is three rounds at 135.

Tainara Lisboa

Win Methods
Wins by Round

Lucia Szabová

Win Methods
Wins by Round
Critical Insight
Lisboa's donut is UFC wins only (1 decision, 1 submission, 0 KO). Szabová's percentages follow the Oktagon promotion summary (64% finish rate, 36% of wins by submission) rather than a reconstructed 12-fight chart — KO share is the residual of that finish rate. Round bars for Szabová map the five most recent results only.

Opposition strength (no shared opponents)

Without a reliable shared-opponent table, compare who each fighter has been tested against using SOS tier, UFC sample size, and recent elite-tier form — not raw records alone.

FactorTainaraLucia
Strength of schedule (SOS tier)Announced SOS 10 — Card rank #25; UFC wins over Ravena Oliveira (UD) and Jessica-Rose Clark (RNC); losses to Croden and Luana SantosRegional / Oktagon titles — Unranked on the announced sheet; recent win over Lucie Pudilová (long UFC past) at 134.8 lbs
UFC sample2-2 across four bouts on the compiled ledger0-0 — Octagon debut
Recent ranked / elite touches (last 5)0 elite · 0 veteran tier0 elite · 2 veteran tier
Form-window difficulty edge: Fighter B (7 vs 0 tier points in listed bouts).
Last three opponentsMelissa Croden, Luana Santos, Ravena OliveiraLucie Pudilová, Leidiane Fernandes, Cecilie Bolander
  • No shared opponents in supplied data: Pudilová is the quality reference for Szabová, not a common-opponent bridge.
03

The Numbers

Composites, division ranks and round-by-round evidence

Composite scores summarize selected statistics on a 0–100 scale. They are not win probabilities. Compare the underlying metrics, opponent quality and sample flags before interpreting a score difference as a matchup advantage.

Striking

Editorial — Lisboa UFC rates; Szabová finish rate + Pudilová volume night

0
Tainara
0
Luciasmall sample

Lisboa 2.01 / 44% / 45% def. Szabová has no rate line. The gauge follows the finish rate and the Pudilová volume night, not a fake SLpM.

Grappling

Editorial — Lisboa TD/Sub rates; Szabová judo + Faria americana

0
Tainara
0
Luciasmall sample

Lisboa 1.67 TD/15 at 31% and 0.3 Sub/15, plus a keylock loss. Szabová's listed judo base and the Faria americana.

Sample

UFC bout count — 4 vs 0

0
Tainara
0
Luciasmall sample

Four UFC fights against zero. This gauge does not pick the winner. It caps conviction.

Form

Recent results — Lisboa 0-2 finishes; Szabová 12-0 titles

0
Tainara
0
Lucia

Lisboa 0-2, both finishes. Szabová 12-0, titles at 135 and 125.

Overall

Editorial composite of form, résumé and measured rates

0
Tainara
0
Lucia

The win split is wider than the composite because form and the résumé gap are the bout.

MetricTainaraLucia
UFC Fights4 (2-2)0
Pro Record7-4-012-0-0
Card Rank#25Unranked
Pace (SLpM)2.01No UFC line
Last ResultL — KO R3 CrodenW — UD5 Pudilová

Archetype Base Rate

Low-Volume UFC Vet 38%62% Undefeated Regional Champion

No archetype base-rate row — editorial 62-38 from Oktagon résumé vs 2-2 UFC line · No historical archetype win-rate is applied. The 62-38 line follows the undefeated Oktagon double champion against a UFC sample that is losing, trimmed by debut uncertainty.

Tainara LisboaLucia Szabová

Women's Bantamweight

StatTainaraTainara rankDiv avgLucia rankLucia
SLpM2.01———No UFC line
Str Acc44%———No UFC line
Str Def45%———No UFC line
SApM2.88———No UFC line
TD/151.67———No UFC line
TD Acc31%———No UFC line
TD Def53%———No UFC line
Sub/150.3———No UFC line
Pro record7-4-0———12-0-0
UFC fights4———0
Statistical Verdict
The only full rate line in the fight belongs to the fighter who is 2-2 and has been finished twice. That line does not show a volume, defensive, or submission advantage large enough to offset 12-0. It does show that Szabová's numbers are still untested in the UFC. Card ranks are the announced sheet (#25 vs unranked).

Significant Strikes Landed per Round

Round-by-round significant-strike figures are unavailable for this comparison. Missing observations are not zero strikes.

Control Time per Round (sec)

Round-by-round control-time figures are unavailable for this comparison. Missing observations are not zero seconds of control.

Tainara Lisboa

  • UFC losses were late: 4:59 of round two (Santos keylock) and 4:32 of round three (Croden punches).
  • UFC wins were also late: a decision, and a choke at 4:20 of round three (Clark).
  • She is not being finished in the first minute — she is being finished after the opponent has had time to land.

Lucia Szabová

  • Recent clocks run from 3:11 of round one (Bolander) to a full 25 minutes (Pudilová).
  • Fernandes was 2:12 of round three. She can end a fight early and she can go five rounds.
  • This booking gives her three rounds at 135.
Critical Insight
Per-round strike tables for a UFC debut do not exist and are omitted. Lisboa's UFC pattern reaches the later rounds and then breaks; Szabová's recent pattern includes both early finishes and a five-round title decision.

Strike targeting (available rounds)

Strike-target figures are unavailable for this comparison.

Head hunting vs body work vs leg attack — the shape of the damage. Unavailable strike-target figures are omitted rather than shown as 0%.

Striking range — distance, clinch and ground

Tainara · N/ALucia · N/A

The distribution of strikes by range is unavailable for this comparison.

Approximate share of significant strikes by range in available rounds, weighted by strike volume. Incomplete splits are excluded. Debutants / fighters without Octagon samples show as N/A.

04

The Story of the Fight

Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath

Where the fight lives

Who owns each phase — and by how much
Open SpaceEven

Lisboa 2.01 SLpM is not a volume edge; Szabová has no UFC striking line

PocketLucia owns it

Recent elbow-and-punch finishes; Lisboa 45% defence leaked to Croden

ClinchLucia owns it

Judo base + standing americana; 25-foot fence is close

GroundEven

Lisboa 1.67 TD/15 at 31% and a keylock loss; Szabová unmeasured in UFC

The Deep Read

This is a UFC vet with a losing rate line against an undefeated Oktagon double champion with no Octagon sample. Lisboa's 2.01 SLpM, 45% defence and two late finishes against her are the measured facts. Szabová's 12-0, 64% listed finish rate and the Pudilová five-round decision are the résumé facts. Neither side invents the other's missing half.

The weight note matters and does not pick the fight. Szabová's last scale weight in a title fight was 134.8. The announced bout is 135. Her flyweight belt is a second achievement, not evidence she is small for this booking. An older listing still showed her at flyweight; this page follows the announced booking at 135.

Conviction sits at 4 because empty UFC samples break locks. The lean is still Szabová — form, youth and finishing habit outweigh a 2-2 UFC line that is leaking strikes and converting takedowns poorly.

Path to Victory

Tainara Lisboa

Make it ugly and long enough that a debutante's first Octagon night becomes a decision. 1.67 TD/15 is the tool, even at 31% accuracy. Clark choke in round three and Oliveira decision are the only UFC win templates.

Why they win
01
UFC cage experience

Four UFC fights — the only woman in the fight who has already won and lost in this cage.

02
Late choke on the log

Rear-naked choke of Clark at 4:20 of round three; 0.3 Sub/15 on the rate line.

03
Known rate line

The only measured UFC profile in the bout, even if it is not a good one.

The gameplan
  1. 1
    Level changes

    Shoot even at 31% accuracy — standing and trading at 2.01 SLpM is the Croden path.

  2. 2
    Survive the surge

    Her losses were late; stay upright through the first surge and hunt the Clark choke.

  3. 3
    Steal minutes

    Make the debut ugly enough that judges see wrestling and cage experience.

Path to Victory

Lucia Szabová

Use the judo base and the finishing habit that stopped Bolander, Faria and Fernandes. Do not assume a five-round pace — Pudilová was five rounds; this is three.

Why they win
01
12-0 with dual titles

Titles at 135 and 125; five-round win over Pudilová at 134.8 lbs.

02
Finishing habit

Recent stoppages of Bolander, Faria and Fernandes — judo clinch into finishes.

03
Youth and height

Seven years younger and roughly an inch taller; Lisboa is the shorter, older woman.

The gameplan
  1. 1
    Pressure and clinch

    Judo entries into the 25-foot fence — do not give Lisboa a slow fifteen minutes to steal.

  2. 2
    Finish early when available

    Bolander and Faria were round-one finishes; Fernandes was round three.

  3. 3
    Compress Pudilová

    If it stays standing into round three, win the minutes without assuming five-round pace.

Danger Zone

How Tainara Lisboa loses

  • A kickboxing fight at 2.01 SLpM becomes the Croden fight again — out-landed and finished late.

  • Szabová's first-surge clinch finds the americana or elbows before Lisboa's wrestling converts.

Danger Zone

How Lucia Szabová loses

  • First Octagon night turns cautious and Lisboa steals a low-volume decision or late choke.

  • A regional finish rate does not automatically survive a first UFC booking.

Lisboa's UFC clock

Late-break pattern

Lisboa's UFC pattern is a low-output fight that reaches the later rounds and then breaks. Two of those breaks went against her. Her wins were also late.

4:20–4:59
clocks on Clark win / Santos & Croden losses
Szabová's recent shape

Finisher who can go five

Szabová's recent pattern is a finisher who has also proven she can win a long title fight at 135. Pudilová is the quality reference — still not an Octagon win.

64%
Oktagon-listed finish rate

Small cage favors ties

Twenty-five feet helps the woman who wants clinch and mat work. Neither profile is a long-range kickboxing specialist.

The Five-Round Clock

Tainara Lisboa danger windowLucia Szabová danger windowNeutral / contested
R1 · 0:00–5:00Bolander / Faria window

Szabová stopped Bolander at 3:11 and Faria at 4:16 of round one. Lisboa has no first-round UFC finish on the page.

Critical Insight
Three rounds only. Szabová can end it early or win the Pudilová path compressed; Lisboa needs the fight ugly and late.

Finish Threat by Round

Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.

05

The Verdict

One hundred simulated fights, the betting market, and our conviction

If you only read 3 things
1

Szabová 62% / Lisboa 38% at conviction 4 — undefeated Oktagon double champion vs a 2-2 UFC line that is losing.

2

Inside the distance 60% (Szabová finish paths 40% combined); distance 40%.

3

No BetOnline price on the September 22, 2026 board — fair odds Szabová −163 / Lisboa +163.

Model outcomes per 100 fights

Each square represents one percentage point of the model distribution, not an observed fight. This visualization does not measure model accuracy or reduce uncertainty in the inputs.

Lisboa KO/TKO — 8%Lisboa Decision — 18%Lisboa Submission — 12%Szabová KO/TKO — 18%Szabová Decision — 22%Szabová Submission — 22%

Each square = 1 simulated fight. Tainara Lisboa gold · Lucia Szabová orange · full color = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

Undefeated résumé

Szabová 12-0 with titles at 135 and 125; Pudilová five-round decision at 134.8 lbs.

UFC rate-line leak

Lisboa 2.01 SLpM, 45% defence, 0-2 last two — both finishes.

Debut uncertainty

Zero UFC fights for Szabová caps conviction at 4 even with the 62% lean.

Small cage

25-foot APEX favors clinch and judo entries over long-range kickboxing.

Fight Scripts

0%
of simulations

Szabová clinch finish

Judo entries in the small cage recreate Bolander, Faria or Fernandes — submission or KO/TKO inside the distance (22% + 18%).

Scripted outcomes for Tainara Lisboa vs Lucia Szabová — how each version of this fight unfolds.

Tainara Lisboa win probability
0%
8%
18%
12%
KO/TKODECSUB

  • Small branch — no UFC knockout win on the page.

  • Oliveira path — the most live upset if the debut stays cautious.

  • Clark choke template at 4:20 of round three.

Lucia Szabová win probability
0%
18%
22%
22%
KO/TKODECSUB

  • Bolander / Fernandes elbow-and-punch path.

  • Pudilová path cut to three rounds.

  • Faria standing americana / judo clinch path.

Projected Scorecards

How the model scores each round
R1
Lucia
R2
Lucia
R3
Even
29-28
Most likely if it goes the distance — Szabová
~55% of decisions
29-28
Lisboa upset card if wrestling steals two
~30% of decisions
30-27
Clear Szabová control
~15% of decisions

Model and price

Tainara Lisboa

Insufficient price data
Model win probability
38%
Fair decimal odds
2.63
Reference quote—
Estimated EV
—
Edge vs no-vig market
—

Lucia Szabová

Insufficient price data
Model win probability
62%
Fair decimal odds
1.61
Reference quote—
Estimated EV
—
Edge vs no-vig market
—

EV uses the displayed price: probability × decimal odds − 1. Edge is a percentage-point difference from a proportionally de-vigged, same-book pair. A dash means that comparison is unavailable.

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Fair odds are the break-even price under this estimate, not a recommended entry price. Model uncertainty can erase a small edge.

What price would change the calculation? · Tainara Lisboa

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Required decimal price: 2.64 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

What price would change the calculation? · Lucia Szabová

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Required decimal price: 1.62 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

Analyst prop read

0 value leans5 fair0 avoid

No prop carries a clear value lean in this analysis.

Full prop table (5)Expand for odds, model %, implied % and analyst verdict per prop

Green rows mark props where our analysis sees value at the recorded BetOnline price. Red rows are overpriced relative to the model share. These are snapshots — verify the line is still available before acting.

Prop probabilities, break-even prices and analyst verdict at the recorded quote.
PropReference quoteImplied %Model %Fair decimal oddsDifference (pp)Estimated EVOur read
Szabová by submission+35522.0%22%4.55+0.0+0.1%Fair price
Szabová by decision+35522.0%22%4.55+0.0+0.1%Fair price
Lisboa by decision+45618.0%18%5.56+0.0+0.1%Fair price
Fight goes the distance+15040.0%40%2.500.00.0%Fair price
Fight does not go the distance-15060.0%60%1.67-0.0-0.0%Fair price

Prop differences use raw implied probability, including the bookmaker margin. They are not the no-vig moneyline edge above.

Original analyst price notes

These notes describe the original analysis and may refer to older prices.

Best lean: Szabová inside the distance (submission + KO/TKO combined at 40%). Lisboa by decision at 18% is the UFC-experience upset. No market line to call an overlay.

Conviction
0
4/10

Editorial confidence in the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

Szabová 62 / Lisboa 38. The undefeated champion is the lean. The empty UFC sample is why it is not higher. Lean: Lucia Szabová.

What backs the lean

  • 12-0, with titles at bantamweight and flyweight

  • A five-round win over Lucie Pudilová at 134.8 lbs

  • Recent finishes of Bolander, Faria and Fernandes

  • Lisboa is 2-2 in the UFC, 0-2 in the last two, both finishes, at 2.01 SLpM and 45% defence

What limits it

  • Szabová has zero UFC fights — the rate line does not exist

  • Lisboa has already won and lost in this cage

  • Her losses were late, not blowouts in the first minute

  • A regional finish rate does not automatically survive a first Octagon night

Final Assessment

In roughly 62 of 100 readings, Lucia Szabová brings the judo and the finishing habit into the small cage and wins by submission (22%), decision (22%) or KO/TKO (18%). Pudilová is the distance template. Bolander and Fernandes are the finish template.

In the other 38, Tainara Lisboa drags a debut into a late fight and wins a decision (18%) or finds the choke (12%) she used on Clark. The knockout share is 8%.

Szabová 62 / Lisboa 38, conviction 4 out of 10. The undefeated champion is the lean. The empty UFC sample is why it is not higher.

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