Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani vs Farman Hasanov: analysis & prediction

PRELIM · WELTERWEIGHT · 3 ROUNDSUFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani — Welterweight fighter

Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani

“JPL”
11W2L
Switch-Stance Decision Winner
VS
Farman Hasanov — Welterweight fighter

Farman Hasanov

“The Lion”
6W0L
One-Night Wrestling Clinic

Two roster decisions against seventeen takedowns in one night

WelterweightMeta APEX, Las VegasOctober 31, 202625ft Octagon (Small Cage)

Fight overview

The fight in 30 seconds

Lebosnoyani is 2-0 on the roster with 4.14 SLpM and 100% takedown defence on a three-fight line. Hasanov is 6-0 after landing 17 takedowns in one night against Eric Nolan. The lean is the man with two UFC wins; seventeen takedowns is why it stays close.

Paths that change the fight

  • Jean-Paul LebosnoyaniStuff the first takedown, use the switch stance and 4.14 SLpM, and let Hasanov's 1.40 output lose a fifteen-minute fight. Submission attempts against Ko and Rowe are the finish branch. 100% takedown defence is the number he has to keep.
  • Farman HasanovMake it the Nolan fight. Seventeen takedowns is not the target — even five in a 25-foot cage buries a volume edge. He does not need to submit anyone. His UFC sub rate is 0.0. The decision is the win.
What limits this estimate · Analyst conviction: 4/10
  • Seventeen takedowns in his only UFC fight is not a normal wrestling rate, and it is still what he did
  • +2" reach, 70% defence and 1.00 SApM on that night

Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani

Insufficient price data
Model win probability
57%
Fair decimal odds
1.75
Reference quote—

Farman Hasanov

Insufficient price data
Model win probability
43%
Fair decimal odds
2.33
Reference quote—
Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Sources and data limitations

Compiled September 22, 2026. Lebosnoyani rate line includes Contender Series. Hasanov record 6-0 on the compiled ledger; announced sheet said 5-0 — this page uses 6-0, sheet noted here. Hasanov TD/15 of 17.00 is one fight. TD Def 0% is unmeasured (opponent landed 0 takedowns) — not treated as a proven hole. Place of birth omitted. Knockdown totals unpublished (kdDealt/kdAbsorbed set to 0). Sample counts 2 and 1. Per-round tables omitted. No BetOnline price on the September 22, 2026 board. ELO excluded.

Model methodology
Read the evidenceInspect prices and assumptions
01

The Frame

What this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it

The Analyst's Take

Three-round welterweight preliminary in the 25-foot APEX cage. Jean-Paul "JPL" Lebosnoyani is 11-2 (an older listing also used nickname Mufasa; the announced card uses JPL). Fight-night age 27, switch, 5'11" with a 72" reach. Compiled rate line including Contender Series: 4.14 SLpM, 46% accuracy, 57% striking defence, 4.05 SApM, 2.89 TD/15 at 42%, 100% takedown defence and 1.9 Sub/15 — two UFC roster decision wins plus a DWCS knockout. Farman "The Lion" Hasanov is 6-0 on the compiled ledger (announced sheet said 5-0; the extra win is the June 27, 2026 decision over Eric Nolan). Rank stays #58. Fight-night age 31, orthodox, 5'11" with a 74" reach. One-fight line: 1.40 SLpM, 51% accuracy, 70% striking defence, 1.00 SApM, 17.00 TD/15 at 62%, 0.0 Sub/15. The compiled rate line prints takedown defence at 0%; Nolan landed 0 takedowns, so that cell is not a measured defence rate. We take Lebosnoyani 57% / Hasanov 43% at conviction 4 / 10.

Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani
Attribute
Farman Hasanov
274-year gap
Age
31
5'11"
Height
5'11"
72"
Reach
+2" Hasanov74"
N/A
Leg Reach
N/A
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
#45
Card Rank
#58
2
UFC Roster Bouts
1
10
Announced SOS
1
Switch-stance volume into decisions
Fighting Style
Chain wrestling / top control

Same height, two inches of reach the other way. Hasanov is +2" in reach and four years older. Lebosnoyani is the switch-stance fighter with two UFC decisions. Hasanov's entire UFC rate line is one night on which he landed 17 takedowns. The pair is a small UFC sample.

Venue Factor
The APEX is 25 feet. That is Hasanov's cage if the Nolan fight was the real version of him. It is also a cage Lebosnoyani has already won two decisions in, with three takedowns in each.
02

The Fighters

Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage

Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani

Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani

Pro Record
11-2-0
UFC Record
2-0; rate line also includes 1 DWCS KO
Streak
Two straight UFC decision wins (Ko, Rowe)
Finish Rate
Measured log: 1 DWCS KO, 2 UFC decisions — roster finishes not yet on the page
Avg Fight Time
15:00 on both UFC roster wins
Chin · No UFC knockdown data published. kdDealt/kdAbsorbed unpublished (0 placeholders).SOS · Announced SOS 10Decision-winning switch striker with submission attempts

Against Ko he was 52-66 on significant strikes with 3 takedowns and 2 submission attempts. Against Rowe, 66-54, again 3 takedowns and 2 submission attempts. He is winning minutes, not finishes, on the roster. Wins beyond the three measured fights are not given methods here.

Farman Hasanov

Farman Hasanov

Pro Record
6-0-0 on the compiled ledger (announced sheet said 5-0)
UFC Record
1-0 — unanimous decision over Eric Nolan
Streak
Undefeated; 15-minute wrestling clinic then first UFC ranking
Finish Rate
UFC sample: 1 decision, 0 finishes; five wins before Nolan not given methods here
Avg Fight Time
15:00 on the only UFC fight
Chin · No UFC knockdown on the log. 1.00 SApM on a smothering top-control night. kdDealt/kdAbsorbed unpublished (0 placeholders).SOS · Announced SOS 1Extreme one-fight wrestling volume

Seventeen takedowns per 15 minutes is what happened against Eric Nolan. It is not yet a career. Significant strikes 21-15. No submission attempts. The striking defence and 1.00 SApM are what a fight looks like when it is spent on top.

Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani
— dealt · — absorbed
Knockdown Exchange
KD dealt vs absorbed. A dash means that figure was not published.
Farman Hasanov
— dealt · — absorbed

Jean-Paul Lebosnoyanisignature weapons

Decision Minutes + Neck HuntingTwo submission attempts in each of Ko and Rowe — 1.9 Sub/15 on the line
×2
Contender Series KOJack Congdon, R1 1:08 — only measured knockout
×1

Farman Hasanovsignature weapons

Chain Wrestling Volume17 takedowns vs Nolan in one night — extreme one-fight sample
×1
Top-Control DecisionDid not need a finish; 21-15 strikes with the fight spent on top
×1

Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani

W
Seokhyeon Ko
Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: ufc

RR3
UFC — Jul 18, 2026
W
Phil Rowe
Decision — Split

Opponent context: ufc

RR3
UFC — Feb 21, 2026
W
Jack Congdon
KO/TKO — punch

Opponent context: ufc adjacent

RR1 (1:08)
DWCS — Sep 2, 2025
Pattern

The compiled ledger does not list five fights. Both roster wins went 15:00 with three takedowns and two submission attempts each. Congdon is the only measured finish.

Farman Hasanov

W
Eric Nolan
Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: ufc

RR3
UFC — Jun 27, 2026
Pattern

One measured fight — a 15-minute wrestling clinic. Both men are on win streaks inside the data we have.

Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani

Win Methods
Wins by Round

Farman Hasanov

Win Methods
Wins by Round
Critical Insight
Donuts scoped to measured compiled wins only — Lebosnoyani three (2 dec + 1 DWCS KO), Hasanov one decision. Broader pro method charts were not reconstructed.

Opposition strength (no shared opponents)

Without a reliable shared-opponent table, compare who each fighter has been tested against using SOS tier, UFC sample size, and recent elite-tier form — not raw records alone.

FactorJean-PaulFarman
Strength of schedule (SOS tier)Announced SOS 10 — Card rank #45; UFC wins over Seokhyeon Ko (UD) and Phil Rowe (SD); DWCS KO of Jack CongdonAnnounced SOS 1 — Card rank #58; only measured opponent Eric Nolan (17 takedowns to 0, 21-15 significant strikes)
UFC sample2-0; rate line also includes 1 DWCS KO1-0 — unanimous decision over Eric Nolan
Recent ranked / elite touches (last 5)0 elite · 0 veteran tier0 elite · 0 veteran tier
Form-window tier points tied in the last-five sample — compare SOS notes and methods, not volume alone.
Last three opponentsSeokhyeon Ko, Phil Rowe, Jack CongdonEric Nolan
  • No shared opponents in supplied data: Announced SOS 10 vs 1 points the same way as the roster sample — sheet numbers, not a model.
03

The Numbers

Composites, division ranks and round-by-round evidence

Composite scores summarize selected statistics on a 0–100 scale. They are not win probabilities. Compare the underlying metrics, opponent quality and sample flags before interpreting a score difference as a matchup advantage.

Striking

Editorial — 4.14 SLpM vs 1.40 one-fight line

0
Jean-Paul
0
Farmansmall sample

4.14 SLpM against 1.40. Hasanov's 70% defence is one smothering fight.

Grappling

Editorial — Hasanov 17.00 TD/15 one night; Lebosnoyani 2.89 / 100% TDD / 1.9 Sub

0
Jean-Paul
0
Farmansmall sample

Hasanov's grappling number is inflated by a single opponent and still points at the real danger.

Form

Both unbeaten in measured rows

0
Jean-Paul
0
Farman

Both unbeaten in the measured rows.

Sample

UFC roster fights — 2 vs 1

0
Jean-Paul
0
Farmansmall sample

Two roster fights against one.

Overall

Editorial — volume and second UFC win

0
Jean-Paul
0
Farman

Volume and the second UFC win, not a dismissal of the wrestling.

MetricJean-PaulFarman
UFC Roster Bouts2 (2-0)1 (1-0)
SLpM4.141.40 (1 fight)
TD/152.8917.00 (1 fight)
TD Def100%0% unmeasured
Reach72"74"

Archetype Base Rate

Two-Win Roster Decision Fighter 57%43% One-Fight Extreme Wrestler

No archetype base-rate row — editorial 57-43 · No historical archetype win-rate is applied. The lean follows two UFC wins and volume against a one-fight wrestling clinic that remains the live upset path.

Jean-Paul LebosnoyaniFarman Hasanov

Welterweight

StatJean-PaulJean-Paul rankDiv avgFarman rankFarman
SLpM4.14———1.40
Str Acc46%———51%
Str Def57%———70%
SApM4.05———1.00
TD/152.89———17.00
TD Acc42%———62%
TD Def100%———0% printed, unmeasured
Sub/151.9———0.0
Reach72"———74"
UFC roster fights2———1
Statistical Verdict
If Hasanov shoots the way he shot on Nolan, the striking table does not matter. If Lebosnoyani stuffs the first layer, 4.14 against 1.40 is a decision he has already won twice. His own takedown defence is 100% on a three-fight line — that is the number that has to survive a man who landed 17. Hasanov's printed 0% TD Def is unmeasured (0 takedowns against), not a proven hole.

Significant Strikes Landed per Round

Round-by-round significant-strike figures are unavailable for this comparison. Missing observations are not zero strikes.

Control Time per Round (sec)

Round-by-round control-time figures are unavailable for this comparison. Missing observations are not zero seconds of control.

Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani

  • Both UFC wins went 15:00 (Ko and Rowe).
  • Only finish on either page is the DWCS punch of Congdon at 1:08 of round one.
  • This matchup's measured history is a decision fight.

Farman Hasanov

  • Only UFC fight went 15:00 — unanimous decision over Nolan.
  • Seventeen takedowns across those fifteen minutes; no submission attempts.
  • Per-round strike tables omitted.
Critical Insight
Both UFC résumés are decision wins. The only finish in the measured logs is Lebosnoyani's Contender Series knockout.

Strike targeting (available rounds)

Strike-target figures are unavailable for this comparison.

Head hunting vs body work vs leg attack — the shape of the damage. Unavailable strike-target figures are omitted rather than shown as 0%.

Striking range — distance, clinch and ground

Jean-Paul · N/AFarman · N/A

The distribution of strikes by range is unavailable for this comparison.

Approximate share of significant strikes by range in available rounds, weighted by strike volume. Incomplete splits are excluded. Debutants / fighters without Octagon samples show as N/A.

04

The Story of the Fight

Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath

Where the fight lives

Who owns each phase — and by how much
Open SpaceJean-Paul owns it

4.14 SLpM vs 1.40 — volume wins if shots are stuffed

PocketJean-Paul owns it

Switch stance and roster striking volume

ClinchFarman owns it

Fence cycles feed Hasanov's wrestling identity

GroundFarman owns it

17 takedowns one night vs Lebosnoyani's 100% TDD stress test

The Deep Read

Seventeen takedowns per 15 minutes is what happened against Eric Nolan. It is not yet a career. Two decisions against Seokhyeon Ko and Phil Rowe are a small UFC résumé, and they are still twice the roster sample.

Lebosnoyani's UFC pattern is a close decision with three takedowns and two submission attempts. Rowe was a split. Ko was unanimous in a fight he lost on significant strikes, 52-66. He can win rounds he is not winning on the feet.

Hasanov's pattern is one data point and it is extreme. A man who lands 17 takedowns and 21 significant strikes is a wrestler who does not need the punch count. The question is whether Ko and Rowe are closer to his level than Eric Nolan was.

Path to Victory

Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani

Stuff the first takedown, use the switch stance and 4.14 SLpM, and let Hasanov's 1.40 output lose a fifteen-minute fight. Submission attempts against Ko and Rowe are the finish branch. 100% takedown defence is the number he has to keep.

Why they win
01
Two UFC wins

2-0 on the roster against 1-0 — twice the roster sample.

02
Volume and submissions

4.14 SLpM, 1.9 Sub/15, two submission attempts in each roster win.

03
Measured TDD

100% takedown defence on the three-fight line; younger, switch stance.

The gameplan
  1. 1
    Underhooks and whizzer

    Do not accept the first fence cycle. Strike when the shot is denied.

  2. 2
    Win the minutes

    4.14 against 1.40 is a decision he has already won twice if wrestling is contested.

  3. 3
    Hunt the neck

    Two submission attempts in each of Ko and Rowe — finish branch stays live.

Path to Victory

Farman Hasanov

Make it the Nolan fight. Seventeen takedowns is not the target — even five in a 25-foot cage buries a volume edge. He does not need to submit anyone. His UFC sub rate is 0.0. The decision is the win.

Why they win
01
Seventeen takedowns

Extreme one-night wrestling volume against Nolan — still what he did.

02
Reach and smothering defence

+2" reach, 70% defence and 1.00 SApM on that night.

03
Undefeated

6-0 on the compiled ledger after the Nolan win.

The gameplan
  1. 1
    Chain wrestle

    Do not strike with a man at 4.14. Top position won him the only UFC fight he has.

  2. 2
    Small-cage entries

    25 feet shortens the path to the fence for level changes.

  3. 3
    Decision over finish

    UFC sub rate is 0.0 — the Nolan path is control, not a tap.

Danger Zone

How Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani loses

  • Accepting the first fence cycle turns the fight into Nolan — volume edge buried under mat time.

  • Ko win came with a significant-strike deficit — close decisions can flip.

Danger Zone

How Farman Hasanov loses

  • First layer stuffed and 1.40 SLpM loses minutes to 4.14.

  • Seventeen takedowns is not a median — Lebosnoyani's TDD line is the stress test.

Decision résumés

Decisions are 58% of the simulation (30 + 28). Both UFC résumés are decision wins.

58%
simulated distance share
Hasanov vs Nolan

Extreme wrestling sample

17 takedowns to 0 — not a normal wrestling rate, and still what he did. TD Def 0% printed is unmeasured.

17.00
TD/15 on one fight

TDD stress test

Lebosnoyani's 100% takedown defence on a three-fight line is the number that has to survive a man who landed 17.

The Five-Round Clock

Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani danger windowFarman Hasanov danger windowNeutral / contested
R1 · 0:00–5:00Congdon finish window

Only measured finish on either page — Lebosnoyani KO at 1:08 of round one on Contender Series.

Critical Insight
Three rounds of decision DNA. Early finish is the small branch; mat time vs volume is the fight.

Finish Threat by Round

Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.

05

The Verdict

One hundred simulated fights, the betting market, and our conviction

If you only read 3 things
1

Lebosnoyani 57% / Hasanov 43% at conviction 4 — man with two UFC wins leans; seventeen takedowns keep it close.

2

Distance 58% (30 + 28); inside the distance 42%. Best lean Lebosnoyani by decision at 30%.

3

No BetOnline price on the September 22, 2026 board — fair odds Lebosnoyani −133 / Hasanov +133.

Model outcomes per 100 fights

Each square represents one percentage point of the model distribution, not an observed fight. This visualization does not measure model accuracy or reduce uncertainty in the inputs.

Lebosnoyani KO/TKO — 9%Lebosnoyani Decision — 30%Lebosnoyani Submission — 18%Hasanov KO/TKO — 7%Hasanov Decision — 28%Hasanov Submission — 8%

Each square = 1 simulated fight. Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani gold · Farman Hasanov orange · full color = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

Roster sample

2-0 vs 1-0 — Lebosnoyani owns the second UFC win.

Volume vs smother

4.14 SLpM against a one-fight 1.40; wrestling can erase the table.

Submission attempts

1.9 Sub/15 and two attempts in each roster win keep the finish branch.

One-night extreme

Seventeen takedowns caps conviction — and keeps Hasanov at 43%.

Fight Scripts

0%
of simulations

Ko / Rowe remake

Wrestling contested, volume wins minutes — Lebosnoyani decision, the primary lean.

Scripted outcomes for Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani vs Farman Hasanov — how each version of this fight unfolds.

Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani win probability
0%
9%
30%
18%
KO/TKODECSUB

  • Small branch — only measured KO is Contender Series.

  • Ko/Rowe path — primary lean at 30%.

  • Attempts from Ko and Rowe kept live at 18%.

Farman Hasanov win probability
0%
7%
28%
8%
KO/TKODECSUB

  • Small branch — no UFC knockdown on the log.

  • Nolan path without pretending 17 takedowns is the median.

  • UFC sub rate is 0.0 — small editorial finish share only.

Projected Scorecards

How the model scores each round
R1
Jean-Paul
R2
Even
R3
Jean-Paul
29-28
Most likely if it goes the distance — Lebosnoyani
~50% of decisions
29-28
Hasanov control card
~40% of decisions
30-27
Clear volume or clear mat time
~10% of decisions

Model and price

Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani

Insufficient price data
Model win probability
57%
Fair decimal odds
1.75
Reference quote—
Estimated EV
—
Edge vs no-vig market
—

Farman Hasanov

Insufficient price data
Model win probability
43%
Fair decimal odds
2.33
Reference quote—
Estimated EV
—
Edge vs no-vig market
—

EV uses the displayed price: probability × decimal odds − 1. Edge is a percentage-point difference from a proportionally de-vigged, same-book pair. A dash means that comparison is unavailable.

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Fair odds are the break-even price under this estimate, not a recommended entry price. Model uncertainty can erase a small edge.

What price would change the calculation? · Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Required decimal price: 1.76 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

What price would change the calculation? · Farman Hasanov

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Required decimal price: 2.33 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

Analyst prop read

0 value leans4 fair0 avoid

No prop carries a clear value lean in this analysis.

Full prop table (4)Expand for odds, model %, implied % and analyst verdict per prop

Green rows mark props where our analysis sees value at the recorded BetOnline price. Red rows are overpriced relative to the model share. These are snapshots — verify the line is still available before acting.

Prop probabilities, break-even prices and analyst verdict at the recorded quote.
PropReference quoteImplied %Model %Fair decimal oddsDifference (pp)Estimated EVOur read
Fight goes the distance-13858.0%58%1.72+0.0+0.0%Fair price
Hasanov by decision+25728.0%28%3.57-0.0-0.0%Fair price
Fight does not go the distance+13842.0%42%2.38-0.0-0.0%Fair price
Lebosnoyani by decision+23330.0%30%3.33-0.0-0.1%Fair price

Prop differences use raw implied probability, including the bookmaker margin. They are not the no-vig moneyline edge above.

Original analyst price notes

These notes describe the original analysis and may refer to older prices.

Best lean: Lebosnoyani by decision at 30%. Hasanov by decision at 28% is almost as live. No market line to call an overlay.

Conviction
0
4/10

Editorial confidence in the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

Lebosnoyani 57 / Hasanov 43. The man with two UFC wins is the lean. The man with seventeen takedowns in one night is why it is close. Lean: Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani.

What backs the lean

  • 2-0 on the UFC roster against 1-0

  • 4.14 SLpM against a one-fight 1.40

  • 1.9 Sub/15 and two submission attempts in each roster win

  • Younger, switch stance, 100% takedown defence on the measured line

What limits it

  • Seventeen takedowns in his only UFC fight is not a normal wrestling rate, and it is still what he did

  • +2" reach, 70% defence and 1.00 SApM on that night

  • Lebosnoyani's Ko win came with a significant-strike deficit

  • Both samples are tiny

Final Assessment

In roughly 57 of 100 readings, Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani keeps the fight in the range where 4.14 SLpM matters and wins a decision (30%) or finds a submission (18%). Ko and Rowe are the template: fifteen minutes, a few takedowns, a neck that sometimes appears.

In the other 43, Farman Hasanov turns the APEX into the Nolan fight and wins a decision (28%) on top. The finish shares stay small. He has not needed one.

Lebosnoyani 57 / Hasanov 43, conviction 4 out of 10. The man with two UFC wins is the lean. The man with seventeen takedowns in one night is why it is close.

Back to UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan Fight Card
Skip to main content
Use Tab to navigate through elements, Enter to activate buttons and links.