Nick Klein vs Joe Kropschot: analysis & prediction

PRELIM · MIDDLEWEIGHT · 3 ROUNDSUFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan
Nick Klein — Middleweight fighter

Nick Klein

“Blue Collar”
6W3L
Wrestling Grappler
VS
Joe Kropschot — Middleweight fighter

Joe Kropschot

“The Land Animal”
9W3L
Range Striker

A finished UFC wrestler against a longer Contender Series decision winner

MiddleweightMeta APEX, Las VegasOctober 31, 202625ft Octagon (Small Cage)

Fight overview

The fight in 30 seconds

Klein owns 5.79 TD/15 and two UFC roster nights — both knockout losses behind 39% striking defence. Kropschot is two inches longer with a one-night Contender Series decision at 7.93 SLpM and zero roster bouts. The lean is the longer man; conviction stays at 3.

Paths that change the fight

  • Nick KleinTurn it into the Souza fight or a decision built on 5.79 TD/15. He cannot win a kickboxing match at 2.51 SLpM behind 39% defence.
  • Joe KropschotStay at the end of the 79-inch reach, jab and teep the Kunneman way, and do not volunteer the clinch Klein wants. Stuff enough of the 35% shots. Armbar is a bonus.
What limits this estimate · Analyst conviction: 3/10
  • Kropschot has zero UFC roster fights — 7.93 SLpM is one night
  • Klein's 5.79 TD/15 and 1.9 Sub/15 are real tools in a 25-foot cage

Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

Nick Klein

Insufficient price data
Model win probability
44%
Fair decimal odds
2.27
Reference quote—

Joe Kropschot

Insufficient price data
Model win probability
56%
Fair decimal odds
1.79
Reference quote—
Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Sources and data limitations

Compiled September 22, 2026. Both rate lines include Contender Series. Klein UFC roster bouts: 2 (both losses). Kropschot UFC roster bouts: 0 (DWCS only). Sample counts exclude Contender Series (2 vs 0) while rate lines include it — read gauges with that split. Place of birth omitted. Knockdown totals unpublished (kdDealt/kdAbsorbed set to 0). Per-round career tables omitted. No BetOnline price on the September 22, 2026 board. ELO excluded.

Model methodology
Read the evidenceInspect prices and assumptions
01

The Frame

What this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it

The Analyst's Take

Three-round middleweight preliminary in the 25-foot APEX cage. Nick "Blue Collar" Klein is 6-3, card rank #76, fight-night age 31, orthodox, 6'1" with a 77" reach. Compiled career rate line (includes Contender Series): 2.51 SLpM, 56% accuracy, 39% striking defence, 3.41 SApM, 5.79 TD/15 at 35%, 66% takedown defence and 1.9 Sub/15 — two UFC roster knockout losses and one DWCS rear-naked choke. Joe "The Land Animal" Kropschot is 9-3, unranked, fight-night age 31, orthodox, 6'3" with a 79" reach. His compiled rate line is one Contender Series fight, a unanimous decision over Jon Kunneman on August 11, 2026: 7.93 SLpM, 61% accuracy, 62% striking defence, 3.93 SApM, 1.00 TD/15 at 50%, 50% takedown defence and 3.0 Sub/15. He has zero UFC roster bouts. We take Kropschot 56% / Klein 44% at conviction 3 / 10.

Nick Klein
Attribute
Joe Kropschot
31
Age
31
6'1"
Height
+2" Kropschot6'3"
77"
Reach
+2" Kropschot79"
N/A
Leg Reach
N/A
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
#76
Card Rank
Unranked
2
UFC Roster Bouts
0
Feb 22, 2025 (Abdul-Malik)
Octagon Debut
Oct 31, 2026 (roster debut)
Wrestling-first into submissions
Fighting Style
Distance jab / range control

Kropschot is +2" in height and +2" in reach. They are the same age. Klein has already been knocked out twice in the UFC. Kropschot's only measured night was a 15-minute decision at this same APEX on Contender Series. The pair is a small UFC sample — the bigger man has not fought on a UFC roster card.

Venue Factor
Twenty-five feet helps Klein's 5.79 TD/15. It also keeps Kropschot's jab in range. Klein's problem on the two UFC nights was not a lack of takedowns — it was getting hit once the fight stayed upright or broke.
02

The Fighters

Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage

Nick Klein

Nick Klein

Pro Record
6-3-0
UFC Record
0-2 on the roster; rate line also includes 1 DWCS win
Streak
Two straight UFC knockout losses (Pulyaev, Abdul-Malik)
Finish Rate
Measured compiled log: 1 submission win (DWCS) and 0 UFC KO wins on the ledger
Avg Fight Time
Not published as a career average
Chin · Finished by KO/TKO in both UFC roster fights (R2). kdDealt/kdAbsorbed unpublished (0 placeholders).SOS · Announced SOS 4High-volume shooter with defensive striking leak

Klein's other four pro wins and one pro loss are outside the compiled UFC ledger and are not given methods here. The measured log is three fights: knockout losses to Pulyaev (R2 1:31) and Abdul-Malik (R2 3:24), and a 37-second rear-naked choke of Souza on Contender Series. 5.79 TD/15 at 35% sits next to 39% striking defence — the grappler has the UFC losses.

Joe Kropschot

Joe Kropschot

Pro Record
9-3-0
UFC Record
0-0 roster; 1 Contender Series win on the compiled ledger
Streak
Five-fight win streak on the compiled DWCS ledger (LFA middleweight champion label)
Finish Rate
Other eight wins and three losses not reconstructed; only measured result is a decision
Avg Fight Time
15:00 on the only measured fight
Chin · No UFC roster knockdown data. One Contender Series decision win. kdDealt/kdAbsorbed unpublished (0 placeholders).SOS · Unranked / regionalOne-night range striker (DWCS sample)

Kropschot's entire compiled rate line is fifteen minutes against Jon Kunneman: 119 of 195 significant strikes to 59 of 159, one takedown of two, three submission attempts (kimura then armbar that did not tap). 96% of significant strikes were at distance. Do not read 7.93 SLpM as a UFC career — it is one night.

Nick Klein
— dealt · — absorbed
Knockdown Exchange
KD dealt vs absorbed. A dash means that figure was not published.
Joe Kropschot
— dealt · — absorbed

Nick Kleinsignature weapons

Rear-Naked ChokeHeraldo Souza, R1 0:37 on Contender Series — matches 1.9 Sub/15
×1
High-Volume Level Changes5.79 TD/15 at 35% — 4 of 7 vs Pulyaev, 1 of 9 vs Abdul-Malik; takedowns without wins
×0

Joe Kropschotsignature weapons

Distance Jab Volume119 significant strikes at range vs Kunneman; 96% of sig strikes at distance
×1
Late Armbar ThreatThree submission attempts on Kunneman (kimura then armbar) without a tap — bonus path, not the plan
×0

Nick Klein

L
Andrey Pulyaev
KO/TKO — kick

Opponent context: ufc

RR2 (1:31)
UFC — Aug 2, 2025
L
Mansur Abdul-Malik
KO/TKO — punches

Opponent context: ufc

RR2 (3:24)
UFC — Feb 22, 2025
W
Heraldo Souza
Submission — rear-naked choke

Opponent context: ufc adjacent

RR1 (0:37)
DWCS — Oct 15, 2024
Pattern

Klein has three measured fights. UFC pattern is a wrestling round that ends in a knockout against him. The DWCS win was 0:37 of round one.

Joe Kropschot

W
Jon Kunneman
Decision — Unanimous (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)

Opponent context: ufc adjacent

RR3
DWCS — Aug 11, 2026
Pattern

Kropschot has one measured fight. Pattern is a long jab fight that nearly became a submission and went to the cards.

Nick Klein

Win Methods
Wins by Round

Joe Kropschot

Win Methods
Wins by Round
Critical Insight
Donuts and round bars are scoped to the measured compiled wins only — Klein's DWCS choke and Kropschot's Kunneman decision. Broader pro method charts were not reconstructed.

Opposition strength (no shared opponents)

Without a reliable shared-opponent table, compare who each fighter has been tested against using SOS tier, UFC sample size, and recent elite-tier form — not raw records alone.

FactorNickJoe
Strength of schedule (SOS tier)Announced SOS 4 — Card rank #76; UFC losses to Andrey Pulyaev and Mansur Abdul-Malik; DWCS win over Heraldo SouzaUnranked / regional — Unranked on the announced sheet; DWCS unanimous decision over Jon Kunneman (119-59 significant strikes)
UFC sample0-2 on the roster; rate line also includes 1 DWCS win0-0 roster; 1 Contender Series win on the compiled ledger
Recent ranked / elite touches (last 5)0 elite · 0 veteran tier0 elite · 0 veteran tier
Form-window tier points tied in the last-five sample — compare SOS notes and methods, not volume alone.
Last three opponentsAndrey Pulyaev, Mansur Abdul-Malik, Heraldo SouzaJon Kunneman
  • No shared opponents in supplied data: No transitive bridge. Other pro results omitted rather than invented.
03

The Numbers

Composites, division ranks and round-by-round evidence

Composite scores summarize selected statistics on a 0–100 scale. They are not win probabilities. Compare the underlying metrics, opponent quality and sample flags before interpreting a score difference as a matchup advantage.

Striking

Editorial — Klein UFC+DWCS rates; Kropschot one-night DWCS line

0
Nick
0
Joesmall sample

Klein 2.51 / 56% / 39% def. Kropschot 7.93 / 61% / 62% def on one night.

Grappling

Editorial — Klein TD/Sub volume; Kropschot 1.00 TD/15 + three sub attempts

0
Nick
0
Joesmall sample

Klein 5.79 TD/15 and 1.9 Sub/15. Kropschot 1.00 TD/15, but three sub attempts in the only fight.

Form

Recent measured results

0
Nick
0
Joe

Klein 0-2 in the UFC, both KOs. Kropschot's only measured result is a win.

Sample

UFC roster bouts — 2 vs 0 (DWCS excluded from sample file)

0
Nick
0
Joesmall sample

Two roster fights against zero. Rate lines still include Contender Series.

Overall

Editorial — size and knockout losses vs wrestling rate

0
Nick
0
Joe

Size and the two knockout losses outweigh the wrestling rate.

MetricNickJoe
UFC Roster Bouts2 (0-2)0
Reach77"79"
SLpM2.517.93 (1 fight)
TD/155.791.00
Str Def39%62%

Archetype Base Rate

Finished UFC Wrestler 44%56% Longer DWCS Decision Winner

No archetype base-rate row — editorial 56-44 · No historical archetype win-rate is applied. The 56-44 lean follows size and Klein's two UFC knockout losses against an empty roster sample for Kropschot.

Nick KleinJoe Kropschot

Middleweight

StatNickNick rankDiv avgJoe rankJoe
SLpM2.51———7.93 (1 fight)
Str Acc56%———61%
Str Def39%———62%
SApM3.41———3.93
TD/155.79———1.00
TD Acc35%———50%
TD Def66%———50%
Sub/151.9———3.0
Reach77"———79"
UFC roster fights2———0
Statistical Verdict
Klein is the wrestler with a defensive striking problem. Kropschot is the longer man whose entire rate line is a decision he won at range. A 25-foot cage gives Klein the entries. It does not fix 39% defence. Card rank is the announced sheet (#76 vs unranked).

Significant Strikes Landed per Round

Round-by-round significant-strike figures are unavailable for this comparison. Missing observations are not zero strikes.

Control Time per Round (sec)

Round-by-round control-time figures are unavailable for this comparison. Missing observations are not zero seconds of control.

Nick Klein

  • Both UFC losses were in round two: 3:24 against Abdul-Malik, 1:31 against Pulyaev.
  • The DWCS win was 0:37 of round one (Souza RNC).
  • Per-round career strike tables omitted.

Joe Kropschot

  • Only fight went 15:00 — unanimous decision over Kunneman.
  • Submission scare (armbar) came in the later stages of a fight he was already winning on the cards.
  • Per-round career strike tables omitted.
Critical Insight
Klein's measured pattern is wrestle-then-get-finished in round two. Kropschot's measured pattern is a full fifteen-minute distance fight.

Strike targeting (available rounds)

Strike-target figures are unavailable for this comparison.

Head hunting vs body work vs leg attack — the shape of the damage. Unavailable strike-target figures are omitted rather than shown as 0%.

Striking range — distance, clinch and ground

Nick · N/AJoe · N/A

The distribution of strikes by range is unavailable for this comparison.

Approximate share of significant strikes by range in available rounds, weighted by strike volume. Incomplete splits are excluded. Debutants / fighters without Octagon samples show as N/A.

04

The Story of the Fight

Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath

Where the fight lives

Who owns each phase — and by how much
Open SpaceJoe owns it

+2" reach and 7.93 SLpM at distance on the only measured night

PocketJoe owns it

Klein 39% striking defence; both UFC finishes came when striking caught up

ClinchNick owns it

5.79 TD/15 wants chest-to-chest; Kropschot should not volunteer it

GroundNick owns it

1.9 Sub/15 and the Souza choke; Kropschot's armbar attempts did not finish

The Deep Read

The grappler has the UFC losses. The striker has the clean Contender Series win and no Octagon roster sample. That is a 56-44 lean, not a pick with a rate-line argument on both sides.

Do not read 7.93 SLpM as a UFC career — it is fifteen minutes. Do not read 5.79 TD/15 as a man who is winning UFC fights — those takedowns sit next to two knockout losses.

Sample-file counts Klein at 2 and Kropschot at 0 because Contender Series is excluded. The rate lines do the opposite: both include DWCS. Read the gauges with that in mind.

Path to Victory

Nick Klein

Turn it into the Souza fight or a decision built on 5.79 TD/15. He cannot win a kickboxing match at 2.51 SLpM behind 39% defence.

Why they win
01
Takedown volume

5.79 TD/15 and 1.9 Sub/15 — real tools in a 25-foot cage.

02
Roster experience

Two UFC roster fights of experience, even if both were losses.

03
Fast choke on the log

37-second rear-naked choke of Souza on Contender Series.

The gameplan
  1. 1
    Chain the shots

    Shoot even at 35% — get chest-to-chest and hunt the neck.

  2. 2
    Avoid kickboxing

    Standing and trading is how Pulyaev and Abdul-Malik finished him.

  3. 3
    Use the small cage

    25 feet shortens the path to the fence for level changes.

Path to Victory

Joe Kropschot

Stay at the end of the 79-inch reach, jab and teep the Kunneman way, and do not volunteer the clinch Klein wants. Stuff enough of the 35% shots. Armbar is a bonus.

Why they win
01
Size

+2" reach and +2" height — the only clean physical edges.

02
Clean measured win

119-59 decision at range on Contender Series; 61% accuracy that night.

03
Striking defence on that night

62% striking defence vs Klein's 39% career line.

The gameplan
  1. 1
    Outside range

    Body jab and teep — do not shoot first. Takedown rate is 1.00.

  2. 2
    Stuff entries

    If Klein shoots at 35%, stuff enough of them to keep the jab fight.

  3. 3
    Armbar as bonus

    The Kunneman armbar is available if entries stall — not the primary plan.

Danger Zone

How Nick Klein loses

  • Standing and trading recreates Pulyaev and Abdul-Malik — finished in round two again.

  • Shots at 35% accuracy stall and the jab fight becomes a decision loss.

Danger Zone

How Joe Kropschot loses

  • Volunteering the clinch lets Klein chain the Souza choke path.

  • 7.93 SLpM was one night — roster pressure can look different.

Klein's UFC pattern

Wrestle-then-get-finished

He can land takedowns (4 of 7 on Pulyaev, 1 of 9 on Abdul-Malik) and still lose the fight in round two behind 39% striking defence.

0-2
UFC roster record, both KO/TKO
Kropschot's only measured night

Distance decision template

A jab fight at range with a late submission threat that did not end the bout — 119-59 significant strikes, full fifteen minutes.

7.93
SLpM on one Contender Series fight

Sample vs rate-line split

Roster sample excludes DWCS (2 vs 0). Rate lines include DWCS for both. Conviction stays low because the longer man's Octagon résumé is empty.

The Five-Round Clock

Nick Klein danger windowJoe Kropschot danger windowNeutral / contested
R1 · 0:00–5:00Souza choke window

Klein's only measured win ended at 0:37 of round one. Kropschot's Kunneman fight was not an early finish.

Critical Insight
Three rounds. Klein needs the Souza path early or a wrestling decision; Kropschot wants the full jab fight that already worked once in this building.

Finish Threat by Round

Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.

05

The Verdict

One hundred simulated fights, the betting market, and our conviction

If you only read 3 things
1

Kropschot 56% / Klein 44% at conviction 3 — longer man leans because the UFC wrestler has been finished twice.

2

Distance 42% (14 + 28); inside the distance 58%. Best lean Kropschot by decision at 28%.

3

No BetOnline price on the September 22, 2026 board — fair odds Kropschot −127 / Klein +127.

Model outcomes per 100 fights

Each square represents one percentage point of the model distribution, not an observed fight. This visualization does not measure model accuracy or reduce uncertainty in the inputs.

Klein KO/TKO — 8%Klein Decision — 14%Klein Submission — 22%Kropschot KO/TKO — 16%Kropschot Decision — 28%Kropschot Submission — 12%

Each square = 1 simulated fight. Nick Klein gold · Joe Kropschot orange · full color = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

Reach and height

Kropschot +2" / +2" — the physical edges that frame the jab fight.

Klein's UFC finishes

0-2 on the roster, both knockouts, at 39% striking defence.

One-night volume

7.93 SLpM is Contender Series only — caps conviction at 3.

Wrestling upside

5.79 TD/15 and 1.9 Sub/15 keep Klein live at 44% in a small cage.

Fight Scripts

0%
of simulations

Kunneman remake

Kropschot stays outside, wins the jab fight, and takes a decision — the Contender Series template.

Scripted outcomes for Nick Klein vs Joe Kropschot — how each version of this fight unfolds.

Nick Klein win probability
0%
8%
14%
22%
KO/TKODECSUB

  • Small branch — no UFC knockout win on the page.

  • Wrestling minutes steal a card if shots stick.

  • Souza choke path — the live grappling upset.

Joe Kropschot win probability
0%
16%
28%
12%
KO/TKODECSUB

  • Range power if Klein stalls on entries.

  • Kunneman path — primary lean at 28%.

  • Armbar bonus from the Contender Series fight.

Projected Scorecards

How the model scores each round
R1
Joe
R2
Joe
R3
Even
29-28
Most likely if it goes the distance — Kropschot
~60% of decisions
29-28
Klein wrestling card
~30% of decisions
30-27
Clear range control for Kropschot
~10% of decisions

Model and price

Nick Klein

Insufficient price data
Model win probability
44%
Fair decimal odds
2.27
Reference quote—
Estimated EV
—
Edge vs no-vig market
—

Joe Kropschot

Insufficient price data
Model win probability
56%
Fair decimal odds
1.79
Reference quote—
Estimated EV
—
Edge vs no-vig market
—

EV uses the displayed price: probability × decimal odds − 1. Edge is a percentage-point difference from a proportionally de-vigged, same-book pair. A dash means that comparison is unavailable.

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Fair odds are the break-even price under this estimate, not a recommended entry price. Model uncertainty can erase a small edge.

What price would change the calculation? · Nick Klein

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Required decimal price: 2.28 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

What price would change the calculation? · Joe Kropschot

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Required decimal price: 1.79 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

Analyst prop read

0 value leans4 fair0 avoid

No prop carries a clear value lean in this analysis.

Full prop table (4)Expand for odds, model %, implied % and analyst verdict per prop

Green rows mark props where our analysis sees value at the recorded BetOnline price. Red rows are overpriced relative to the model share. These are snapshots — verify the line is still available before acting.

Prop probabilities, break-even prices and analyst verdict at the recorded quote.
PropReference quoteImplied %Model %Fair decimal oddsDifference (pp)Estimated EVOur read
Klein by submission+35522.0%22%4.55+0.0+0.1%Fair price
Fight does not go the distance-13858.0%58%1.72+0.0+0.0%Fair price
Kropschot by decision+25728.0%28%3.57-0.0-0.0%Fair price
Fight goes the distance+13842.0%42%2.38-0.0-0.0%Fair price

Prop differences use raw implied probability, including the bookmaker margin. They are not the no-vig moneyline edge above.

Original analyst price notes

These notes describe the original analysis and may refer to older prices.

Best lean: Kropschot by decision at 28%. Klein by submission at 22% is the live grappling upset. No market line to call an overlay.

Conviction
0
3/10

Editorial confidence in the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

Kropschot 56 / Klein 44. The longer man is the lean because the UFC wrestler has been finished twice. The empty roster sample is why the number stays low. Lean: Joe Kropschot.

What backs the lean

  • Two inches taller, two inches longer

  • Klein is 0-2 in the UFC, both knockout losses, at 39% striking defence

  • The only full fight Kropschot has on the compiled ledger is a decision he won 119-59 at range

What limits it

  • Kropschot has zero UFC roster fights — 7.93 SLpM is one night

  • Klein's 5.79 TD/15 and 1.9 Sub/15 are real tools in a 25-foot cage

  • A regional 9-3 record is not an Octagon rate line

Final Assessment

In roughly 56 of 100 readings, Joe Kropschot uses the reach, wins the jab fight, and takes a decision (28%), with a KO/TKO (16%) or the armbar (12%) if Klein's entries stall. Kunneman is the template, and it is only one template.

In the other 44, Nick Klein makes it a wrestling fight and wins by submission (22%) or a decision (14%). The knockout share is 8%.

Kropschot 56 / Klein 44, conviction 3 out of 10. The longer man is the lean because the UFC wrestler has been finished twice. The empty roster sample is why the number stays low.

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