Andre Petroski vs Mantas Kondratavičius: Analysis & Prediction

MAIN CARD · MIDDLEWEIGHT · 3 ROUNDSUFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs. Walker

Andre Petroski

13W6L

Wrestler

…

Mantas Kondratavičius

9W1L

Clinch striker

…

Kondratavičius owns the first ten minutes; Petroski needs the last five

MiddleweightMeta APEX, Las Vegas2026-11-0725-foot Octagon

The fight in 30 seconds

Andre Petroski 54% / Mantas Kondratavičius 46%. Andre Petroski is the editorial selection: he wins most often by taking the clinch, converting it to control and winning rounds, with a real finishing share from top position late. Kondratavičius's biggest route is a knockout of a man who has been stopped four times in the UFC, every time inside two rounds.

Subjective editorial probabilities, not calibrated model outputs.

Andre Petroski

Quote age unknown

Editorial win estimate: 54%
Fair odds: -117

Reference quote: +254 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds: 1.85

Mantas Kondratavičius

Quote age unknown

Editorial win estimate: 46%
Fair odds: +117

Reference quote: -310 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds: 2.17

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Quotes listed with a date but no time are treated as undated.

Read the handicapping and counterarguments

The Frame

What this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it

The Analyst's Take

Andre Petroski (13-6) vs. Mantas Kondratavičius (9-1): middleweight, three five-minute rounds on the main card. Kondratavičius is eight years younger, longer and much more accurate, and every finish of his career has come inside two rounds. Petroski is on a three-fight skid, but his wrestling builds control as fights go on, and his opponent has fought one third round in his career and lost it on two of the three scorecards.

Andre Petroski

Attribute

Mantas Kondratavičius

13-6

Pro record

9-1

8-5

UFC record

1-0

Age

6'0"

Height

6'2"

73"

Reach

75.5"

39"

Leg reach

46"

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

Aug 2021

Octagon debut

Mar 2026

Height and reach are in inches, and ages are as of fight night, November 7, 2026. Career statistics and fight results through October 2026.

Venue Factor
The 25-foot cage shortens the trip from range to the fence. That helps Petroski find the clinch, and it also puts him in the range where Kondratavičius lands his elbows and knees.

The Fighters

Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage

Andre Petroski

Pro record: 13-6
UFC bouts: 13
Career KO/TKO wins: 4
Career submission wins: 4

Petroski has wrestled since he was four and added Brazilian jiu-jitsu in college. His UFC run began with three finishes: an elbow stoppage from mount over Micheal Gillmore, an arm-triangle on Hu Yaozong late in round three and an anaconda choke on Nick Maximov in 76 seconds. Then came five decision wins built on takedowns and long top control, over Wellington Turman, Gerald Meerschaert, Josh Fremd, Dylan Budka and Rodolfo Vieira.

The current skid is three fights: a decision loss to Edmen Shahbazyan, a first-round knockout by Cam Rowston as a clear favourite, and a second-round knockout by Cody Brundage after Petroski had won the first round on every card. All five of his professional stoppage losses came inside two rounds.

Mantas Kondratavičius

Pro record: 9-1
UFC bouts: 1
Career KO/TKO wins: 6
Career submission wins: 2

Kondratavičius is a three-time Lithuanian combat sambo champion with amateur kickboxing and boxing titles and a jiu-jitsu purple belt. He finished eight of his nine professional wins, including a flying-knee knockout in six seconds, and earned his contract with a 66-second stoppage on the Contender Series. His only loss is a round-two rear-naked choke in 2023.

His UFC debut in London was a unanimous decision over Antonio Trócoli: 28 strikes to 6 in round one, 39 to 5 in round two with a clinch elbow knockdown and a near choke, then 8 to 6 in a third round in which he conceded a takedown and more than three minutes of control. It was the first third round of his career.

The Numbers

Career statistics and what they say about this matchup

Career statistics

Career averages describe past opposition, not a prediction of this fight, and can include Contender Series appearances.

Andre Petroski: UFC career averages across 13 bouts and 134 minutes, from his August 2021 debut through May 2026.

Mantas Kondratavičius: UFC averages from one bout, the fifteen-minute decision over Antonio Trócoli in March 2026.

Career statistical comparison for Andre Petroski and Mantas Kondratavičius
Metric	Andre Petroski	Mantas Kondratavičius
Significant strikes landed / min	2.75	5
Significant strikes absorbed / min	2.99	1.13
Striking accuracy	49%	70%
Striking defence	52%	56%
Takedowns / 15 min	3.13	2
Takedown defence	86%	92%
Submission attempts / 15 min	1.23	1
Knockdowns / 15 min	0.11	1

Submission attempts are not submission wins. Defence percentages depend on attempts faced. These are career profile averages, so no division rank is assigned. A dash is not a zero.

The Story of the Fight

Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath

Kondratavičius owns the first ten minutes; Petroski needs the last five

Kondratavičius is longer, younger and sharper over the first exchanges, so Petroski has to survive the opening range battle and turn the clinch into a wrestling fight along the fence. The later rounds favour Petroski's control and pace; the fight flips if Kondratavičius lands clean elbows or hooks on the entries before that grind can begin.

The Deep Read

Most wrestler-against-striker fights are about whether the wrestler can reach the clinch. This one is about what happens once he does, because the clinch is also Kondratavičius's best range: he landed 17 of 19 strikes there in his debut, including the elbow that dropped his opponent. Petroski's route to the mat runs through the fence, chaining entries along the cage rather than finishing clean shots in open space. The fight therefore turns on the first seconds after contact. If Petroski's head and hands are in place, Kondratavičius is defending a wrestler with thirteen UFC fights of control experience. If Kondratavičius frames and turns him, Petroski is in exactly the exchange that has hurt him.

Petroski will not win a range battle against a man who lands five significant strikes a minute at 70%, and he should not try. The knockouts by Cam Rowston and Cody Brundage both started with a left hook that landed while Petroski stood tall, with no threat forcing the opponent to defend low first. Against Kondratavičius, whose 46-inch leg reach turns a lazy level change into a knee opportunity, the entry has to come behind feints, a switch-stance jab and a short commitment to the body. Petroski usually chooses his moments well; when he chooses badly, the cost has been severe.

The London fight is the strongest evidence on Kondratavičius, and it splits in two. For ten minutes he out-landed Antonio Trócoli 67 to 11, scored a knockdown and nearly finished a rear-naked choke. In the third round he landed 8 strikes at 44%, gave up a takedown and spent more than three minutes underneath, and two judges gave the round away. It was the first third round of his career. Petroski's profile is the mirror image: his control rises from 77 seconds in an average first round to 145 in the third, his accuracy climbs from 43% to 59%, and he has won five of his six UFC decisions.

The cancelled bookings matter only for what they confirmed about each man. Petroski had prepared for a hard-hitting wrestler with a leaky defence; Kondratavičius for a submission hunter who gets hit on the way in. Neither resembles the opponent each now faces. Kondratavičius is not a defensive liability, and Petroski does not walk through strikes to chase the neck. The matchup has to be read from scratch: a veteran wrestler on a skid against a high-accuracy clinch striker with fifteen UFC minutes.

Path to Victory

Andre Petroski

Survive the opening range battle, get to the fence behind feints and body work, and turn the clinch into body-lock wrestling before Kondratavičius can frame and strike. Bank control in the first two rounds and own the third.

Why they win

Primary route

Supporting evidence

Petroski is 8-5 across 13 UFC fights, averages more than three takedowns per fifteen minutes at 53% accuracy and holds four minutes of control per bout. His control climbs from 77 seconds in an average first round to 145 in the third, and he won the opening round of his last fight on every card with a takedown and nearly two minutes on top.

The gameplan

1
Entry
Enter behind a switch-stance jab and a body shot, then change levels at the fence rather than in open space.
2
Position
Lock the body with the head tight to Kondratavičius's chest and drag the fight to the mat instead of holding him on the cage, where elbows and knees are available.
3
Adjustment
Once on top, settle the hips and work toward the back or the arm-triangle; win rounds with control rather than giving up position for a choke.

Path to Victory

Mantas Kondratavičius

Win range with length and accuracy, punish every entry with knees and elbows, and keep the fight standing in the centre. Pace round two so the third round does not repeat his debut.

Why they win

Primary route

Win range with length and accuracy, punish every entry with knees and elbows, and keep the fight standing in the centre. Pace round two so the third round does not repeat his debut.

Supporting evidence

Kondratavičius landed 75 of 107 significant strikes in his debut, absorbed 17, dropped his opponent with a clinch elbow and stopped 11 of 12 takedown attempts. He has six knockout wins, has never lost by strikes, and faces a man who has been knocked down four times in the UFC.

The gameplan

1
Entry
Work at the end of the jab and the long straight, attack the body early and keep Petroski reaching rather than entering.
2
Position
Meet the level change with knees and the clinch with frames and short elbows, and break off the fence immediately instead of grappling there.
3
Adjustment
If he lands takedowns of his own, take the back only with secure hooks and never surrender top position to chase a choke he does not need.

Danger Zone

How Andre Petroski loses

He shoots from outside, Kondratavičius times it with a knee or a hook, and the fight follows the pattern of his losses to Cam Rowston and Cody Brundage.
He lands takedowns but cannot hold them; sambo scrambles return Kondratavičius to his feet, and each reset costs Petroski energy and rounds.

Danger Zone

How Mantas Kondratavičius loses

He chases a finish in round two, empties the tank and spends round three under a body lock, losing a close decision on Petroski's control.
He shoots or scrambles carelessly and gives up his back, the same route that produced the only loss of his career.

Conditional tactical scenario

Round 1: what to watch

Kondratavičius's round on paper: jab, long straights and body work, with a knee waiting for any dropped head. Petroski does not need to win the striking. He needs to reach the fence without taking a clean shot and make Kondratavičius carry weight for the last two minutes, as he did with a takedown and nearly two minutes of control in his last opening round.

Conditional tactical scenario

Round 2: what to watch

The most dangerous round for Petroski: three of his five stoppage losses came here, and Kondratavičius's best UFC round was a second round. If Petroski banked the first, Kondratavičius will open more exchanges, which raises both his knockout chance and Petroski's entry chances. Watch Kondratavičius's output late in the round; spending heavily again tilts the third.

Conditional tactical scenario

Round 3: what to watch

Petroski's round on the evidence: his control and accuracy peak here, and both of his third-round finishes came from top position. If Kondratavičius fades as he did in his debut, Petroski can win on control and hunt the back or the arm-triangle. If Kondratavičius paced himself and leads, he only needs five minutes off the fence and away from the body lock.

The Verdict

The matchup read, the betting market, and the swing factors

Editorial handicapping

Andre Petroski 54% · Mantas Kondratavičius 46%

Subjective analyst estimates for the announced opponent and distance. These are not calibrated outputs from the prediction model. Method probabilities are portions of the overall outcome distribution, not percentages conditional on winning.

Petroski is estimated at 54% because the fight is three rounds long and the evidence on each man is concentrated at opposite ends of it. Every finish of Kondratavičius's career came inside ten minutes, and his best UFC round was a second round. Petroski's control and accuracy peak in round three, both of his third-round finishes came from top position, and he has never been stopped after round two.

Kondratavičius's 46% is built mainly on early damage. He lands 70% of his significant strikes, does his best work in the clinch Petroski must enter, and meets a 35-year-old who was knocked out in each of his last two fights. His 92% takedown defence came against an opponent who shot twelve times.

The assessment is for three five-minute rounds at 185 lb. The six outcomes are mutually exclusive allocations conditional on a decisive result; draws and no-contests are not priced. The split is specific to this pairing and does not carry over anything from the cancelled Petroski–Bekoev or Kondratavičius–Schultz bookings.

Petroski falls toward 42% if Kondratavičius's takedown defence and clinch striking hold through the first ten minutes, because the late-round edge then never arrives. He rises toward 62% if his first takedown lands in round one and Kondratavičius fades in the third as he did in his debut. Scenario range for Andre Petroski: 42–62%; the complementary range for Mantas Kondratavičius is 38–58%. These are judgment-based scenarios, not statistical confidence intervals.

If you only read 2 things

Petroski falls toward 42% if Kondratavičius's takedown defence and clinch striking hold through the first ten minutes; he rises toward 62% if his first takedown lands early and Kondratavičius fades in round three.

Editorial outcome distribution · 100 percentage points

Each square represents one percentage point of the subjective editorial distribution. This is an illustration of the assigned probabilities, not a simulation or an observed result.

Andre Petroski · KO/TKO — 16%Andre Petroski · Decision — 22%Andre Petroski · Submission — 16%Mantas Kondratavičius · KO/TKO — 20%Mantas Kondratavičius · Decision — 18%Mantas Kondratavičius · Submission — 8%

Each square = 1 editorial percentage point. Andre Petroski gold · Mantas Kondratavičius orange · color opacity: 100% = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

Andre Petroski win probability

16%

22%

16%

KO/TKODECSUB

Ground strikes from mount or the back against a tiring opponent in round three, the version that stopped Micheal Gillmore. The share rests on top-position damage, not standing power.
His most likely route: takedowns, fence control and sharper third rounds produced five UFC decision wins, and he won the first round of his last fight on every card.
Arm-triangle and anaconda finishes, steady submission attempts, and an opponent whose only loss is a round-two rear-naked choke. Kondratavičius's sambo base caps it.

Mantas Kondratavičius win probability

20%

18%

KO/TKODECSUB

His largest route: a 70% striker with knees, elbows and six knockout wins against a man stopped in each of his last two fights, both inside two rounds.
He wins the first two rounds at range, defends the shots as he did in his debut and survives a slower third. His fade in that debut limits the share.
A sambo champion who had a rear-naked choke close in his debut, but Petroski has never been submitted as a professional and rarely gives up his back.

Editorial estimate vs market

Andre Petroski

Quote age unknown

Editorial win estimate: 54%
Fair odds: -117

Reference quote: +254 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds: 1.85

Estimated EV: +91.2%
Edge vs no-vig market: +26.8 pp

Mantas Kondratavičius

Quote age unknown

Editorial win estimate: 46%
Fair odds: +117

Reference quote: -310 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds: 2.17

Estimated EV: -39.2%
Edge vs no-vig market: -26.8 pp

EV uses the displayed price: probability × decimal odds − 1. Edge is a percentage-point difference from a proportionally de-vigged, same-book pair. A dash marks a price without a same-book pair to compare.

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Quotes listed with a date but no time are treated as undated.

Fair odds are the break-even price under this estimate, not a recommended entry price. Model uncertainty can erase a small edge.

What price would change the calculation? · Andre Petroski

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Assumed win probability (%)Your target estimated EV (%)

Required decimal price: 1.86 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

What price would change the calculation? · Mantas Kondratavičius

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Assumed win probability (%)Your target estimated EV (%)

Required decimal price: 2.18 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

Fair prices and expected value are arithmetic consequences of these subjective estimates. A positive calculation at an old quote is not a verified current opportunity.

Conviction

3/10

Editorial confidence in the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

Confidence reflects the quality and comparability of the evidence, not the size of the win probability. Lean: Andre Petroski.

What backs the lean

Petroski's control and accuracy rise round by round, he has won five of his six UFC decisions, and he has never been stopped in a third round.
Kondratavičius's only fifteen-minute fight ended with 8 strikes landed in round three, a takedown conceded and more than three minutes under control.
Kondratavičius's only career loss is a round-two rear-naked choke against a grappler who reached his back.

What limits it

Petroski is 35 and has lost three straight, the last two by knockout inside two rounds.
The clinch Petroski needs is Kondratavičius's best range: he landed 17 of 19 strikes there and dropped his opponent with an elbow.
The third-round reading comes from a single Kondratavičius fight; a full camp could erase it.

Final Assessment

Back to UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs. Walker Fight Card

Andre Petroski

Mantas Kondratavičius

The fight in 30 seconds

Andre Petroski

Mantas Kondratavičius

The Frame

The Fighters

Andre Petroski

Andre Petroski

Recent results

Mantas Kondratavičius

Mantas Kondratavičius

Recent results

The Numbers

Career statistics

The Story of the Fight

Kondratavičius owns the first ten minutes; Petroski needs the last five

Andre Petroski

Mantas Kondratavičius

How Andre Petroski loses

How Mantas Kondratavičius loses

Round 1: what to watch

Round 2: what to watch

Round 3: what to watch

The Verdict

Andre Petroski 54% · Mantas Kondratavičius 46%

Editorial outcome distribution · 100 percentage points

Editorial estimate vs market

Andre Petroski

Mantas Kondratavičius