Mitch Raposo vs Marcos Degli: Analysis & Prediction

01

The Frame

What this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it

The Analyst's Take

Mitch Raposo (11-3) vs. Marcos Degli (15-3): Flyweight, 3 five-minute rounds at Meta APEX. Raposo needs to make each transition end in a stable position. Degli's regional record and Contender Series submission suggest that a prolonged scramble can keep generating finishing opportunities, but those results do not establish a comparable UFC rate sample.

Mitch Raposo

Attribute

Marcos Degli

11-3

Pro record

15-3

Flyweight

Booked division

Flyweight

125 lb

Booked limit

125 lb

65.00

Height

66.00

64.50

Reach

67.00

27

Age

26

New England Cartel

Trains at

—

Height and reach are in inches, and ages are as of October 2026. Both fighters are booked at the contracted limit for this bout.

Venue Factor
Scheduled for 3 five-minute rounds. The round scenarios below are tactical questions, not invented statistical forecasts.

02

The Fighters

Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage

Mitch Raposo

Pro record: 11-3
UFC bouts: 4
Career KO/TKO wins: 4
Career submission wins: 3

Raposo enters at 11-3. His UFC record includes decision losses to Andre Lima and Sumudaerji followed by decision wins over Azat Maksum and Allan Nascimento. Those fights provide evidence that he can work over fifteen minutes, but his published significant-striking balance is negative. A gameplan built only around avoiding the prospect's finish would therefore be insufficient; he needs to create clear offence while controlling where exchanges begin and end.

Recent results

W
Allan Nascimento
Decision — split, R3 · Jun 20, 2026 · UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi 2
W
Azat Maksum
Decision — unanimous, R3 · Oct 25, 2025 · UFC 321
L
Su Mudaerji
Decision — split, R3 · Apr 12, 2025 · UFC 314
L
Andre Lima
Decision — split, R3 · Jun 1, 2024 · UFC 302
W
Justin Valentin
TKO — punches, R4 (3:03) · Jan 27, 2024 · Cage Titans FC

Marcos Degli

Pro record: 15-3
UFC bouts: 0
Career KO/TKO wins: 9
Career submission wins: 5

Degli enters at 15-3 after submitting Paris Moran on Contender Series, following an LFA title run. UFC's signing report credits him with a long winning streak and a finishing-heavy professional record. The useful observation is that he has converted attacks in more than one phase, including a second-round submission in the contract-winning appearance. The profile's 1-0 header and per-minute figures are not his full professional record and are not treated as a completed UFC career.

Recent results

W
Paris Moran
Submission — rear-naked choke, R2 (4:46) · Sep 22, 2026 · Dana White's Contender Series: Contender Series 2026: Week 7
W
Luis Aguiar
KO — punch to the body, R1 (1:35) · Jan 23, 2026 · LFA 225
W
Matheus Severino
KO — punches, R3 (2:44) · Jul 11, 2025 · LFA 212
W
Lincon Santos
KO — punch, R2 (0:41) · Feb 7, 2025 · LFA 201
W
Ignacio Fernandez
TKO — punches, R1 (4:32) · Jul 6, 2024 · LFA 187

03

The Numbers

Career statistics and what they say about this matchup

Career statistics

Career averages describe past opposition, not a prediction of this fight, and can include Contender Series appearances.

Mitch Raposo: Career averages across 4 UFC bouts through the June 2026 Allan Nascimento fight, not adjusted for opponent or division.

Marcos Degli: Makes his UFC debut after a Contender Series submission win, so there are no UFC career averages yet.

Career statistical comparison for Mitch Raposo and Marcos Degli
Metric	Mitch Raposo	Marcos Degli
Significant strikes landed / min	1.91	—
Significant strikes absorbed / min	2.92	—
Striking accuracy	38%	—
Striking defence	61%	—
Takedowns / 15 min	1.98	—
Takedown defence	68%	—
Submission attempts / 15 min	0	—
Knockdowns / 15 min	0	—

Submission attempts are not submission wins. Defence percentages depend on attempts faced. These are career profile averages, so no division rank is assigned. A dash is not a zero.

04

The Story of the Fight

Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath

Raposo's structured minutes against Degli's connected finishing threats

Raposo needs to make each transition end in a stable position. Degli's regional record and Contender Series submission suggest that a prolonged scramble can keep generating finishing opportunities, but those results do not establish a comparable UFC rate sample.

The Deep Read

Raposo's advantage in familiarity with UFC competition only matters if it produces better decisions during exchanges. He should aim to make Degli attempt a second setup after the first attack is defended. A stable frame, a completed stand-up or a secured top position can all serve that purpose. Merely slowing down while conceding the cleaner offence would turn experience into a passive strategy rather than an advantage.

Degli's most useful approach is to connect threats without confusing activity with control. If a striking exchange makes Raposo retreat, the next question is whether the fence or level change is available. If a takedown is defended, the next question is whether a front headlock or back exposure has appeared. Those are plausible tactical links supported by his submission results, but the specific sequence against Raposo remains an editorial hypothesis rather than an observed fact.

Raposo's own grappling cannot be reduced to submission defence. His wrestling background and published takedown activity give him a way to choose the phase, provided he controls the landing. Top position could interrupt Degli's striking and force the newcomer to show a bottom game against UFC resistance. An entry with the neck exposed, however, risks delivering the kind of connected submission exchange that Raposo should be trying to limit.

The statistical comparison is deliberately uneven. Raposo has actual UFC results; Degli's public profile reflects a much narrower showcase sample. Converting Degli's takedown and submission-attempt averages into a supposed superiority would overstate the evidence. The stronger argument for his threat is the documented finishing record and the way a failed attack can lead to another phase. The stronger argument for Raposo is repeated, round-winning control against a higher level of opponent.

Path to Victory

Mitch Raposo

Score before changing levels, finish takedowns with safe head position and make every scramble end in a controlled reset. Turn fifteen minutes into distinct exchanges instead of a continuous finishing sequence.

Why they win

01

Primary route

Score before changing levels, finish takedowns with safe head position and make every scramble end in a controlled reset. Turn fifteen minutes into distinct exchanges instead of a continuous finishing sequence.

02

Supporting evidence

Raposo enters at 11-3. His UFC record includes decision losses to Andre Lima and Sumudaerji followed by decision wins over Azat Maksum and Allan Nascimento. Those fights provide evidence that he can work over fifteen minutes, but his published significant-striking balance is negative. A gameplan built only around avoiding the prospect's finish would therefore be insufficient; he needs to create clear offence while controlling where exchanges begin and end.

The gameplan

1
Entry
Establish enough striking offence that Degli cannot enter without consequence.
2
Position
Protect the neck during takedown attempts and settle the hips before advancing on top.
3
Adjustment
After defending a submission, complete the escape and score; do not remain in the same unresolved position.

Path to Victory

Marcos Degli

Use strikes to draw a defensive movement, attach the next grappling threat and advance only when the position supports it. Make Raposo defend consecutive problems without surrendering balance in the chase.

Why they win

01

Primary route

Use strikes to draw a defensive movement, attach the next grappling threat and advance only when the position supports it. Make Raposo defend consecutive problems without surrendering balance in the chase.

02

Supporting evidence

Degli enters at 15-3 after submitting Paris Moran on Contender Series, following an LFA title run. UFC's signing report credits him with a long winning streak and a finishing-heavy professional record. The useful observation is that he has converted attacks in more than one phase, including a second-round submission in the contract-winning appearance. The profile's 1-0 header and per-minute figures are not his full professional record and are not treated as a completed UFC career.

The gameplan

1
Entry
Build the first attack to create a reaction rather than forcing a finish immediately.
2
Position
Connect transitions when Raposo is moving, but secure the grip before spending energy on a submission.
3
Adjustment
If Raposo slows the fight from top position, prioritise a workable frame and stand-up rather than low-percentage attacks underneath.

Danger Zone

How Mitch Raposo loses

Raposo wins the first defensive moment but remains attached in a scramble that generates another submission threat.
He limits danger but loses rounds because his own offence never becomes clear.

Danger Zone

How Marcos Degli loses

Degli chases an early submission and concedes sustained top position when it fails.
He cannot reproduce his regional pace against a fighter who separates each exchange and makes him restart.

Conditional tactical scenario, not a statistical projection

Round 1: what to watch

Round 1: watch whether Degli's first failed attack leads to another credible threat or simply ends the sequence. Raposo should be trying to force the latter while still scoring.

Conditional tactical scenario, not a statistical projection

Round 2: what to watch

Round 2: the cost of repeated grappling attempts becomes relevant, but neither fighter's cardio can be inferred from one early success. Stable position is the best evidence of sustainable work.

Conditional tactical scenario, not a statistical projection

Round 3: what to watch

Round 3: a close score rewards clear offence. Raposo cannot rely on defensive composure alone; Degli cannot rely on the appearance of activity without productive control or damage.

05

The Verdict

The matchup read, the betting market, and the swing factors

Editorial handicapping

Mitch Raposo 50% · Marcos Degli 50%

Subjective analyst estimates for the announced opponent and distance. These are not calibrated outputs from the prediction model. Method probabilities are portions of the overall outcome distribution, not percentages conditional on winning.

Raposo and Degli are held at 50/50 because the evidence supports different routes without a convincing common baseline. Raposo has more established UFC experience and the larger decision allocation; Degli has the greater submission allocation from his documented finishing threat. Regional finishing success is not treated as a calibrated UFC rate.

Raposo needs to make each transition end in a stable position. Degli's regional record and Contender Series submission suggest that a prolonged scramble can keep generating finishing opportunities, but those results do not establish a comparable UFC rate sample.

The assessment is for 3 five-minute rounds at 125 lb. The six outcomes are mutually exclusive allocations conditional on a decisive result; draws and no-contests are not separately priced. Method shares are not conditional on the fighter winning, and the 100-cell display visualises these allocations rather than reporting simulated fights.

Raposo rises toward 60% if he repeatedly ends transitions in secure positions; he falls toward 40% if each defended attack leaves Degli another grip, back exposure or submission sequence. Scenario range for Mitch Raposo: 40–60%; the complementary range for Marcos Degli is 40–60%. These are judgment-based scenarios, not statistical confidence intervals.

If you only read 2 things

1

Mitch Raposo 50% / Marcos Degli 50%. No overall preference; neither side has a central estimated advantage. Raposo and Degli are held at 50/50 because the evidence supports different routes without a convincing common baseline. Raposo has more established UFC experience and the larger decision allocation; Degli has the greater submission allocation from his documented finishing threat. Regional finishing success is not treated as a calibrated UFC rate.

2

Raposo rises toward 60% if he repeatedly ends transitions in secure positions; he falls toward 40% if each defended attack leaves Degli another grip, back exposure or submission sequence.

Editorial outcome distribution · 100 percentage points

Each square represents one percentage point of the subjective editorial distribution. This is an illustration of the assigned probabilities, not a simulation or an observed result.

Mitch Raposo · KO/TKO — 8%Mitch Raposo · Decision — 33%Mitch Raposo · Submission — 9%Marcos Degli · KO/TKO — 12%Marcos Degli · Decision — 13%Marcos Degli · Submission — 25%

Each square = 1 editorial percentage point. Mitch Raposo gold · Marcos Degli orange · color opacity: 100% = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

Mitch Raposo win probability

0%

8%

33%

9%

KO/TKODECSUB

A clean counter or accumulated offence after stable defence can produce a stoppage.
Ending scrambles in a stable position is his most plausible way to win rounds.
Securing a dominant transition can open a submission, but control is the main argument.

Marcos Degli win probability

0%

12%

13%

25%

KO/TKODECSUB

Connected attacks can expose striking opportunities during a defensive reset.
If finishing attacks create sustained productive control, he can win without a stoppage.
The documented DWCS rear-naked choke supports a dangerous connected grappling route.

Editorial estimate vs market

Mitch Raposo

Quote age unknown

Editorial win estimate: 50%
Fair odds: +100

Reference quote: +205 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds: 2.00

Estimated EV: +52.5%
Edge vs no-vig market: +18.4 pp

Marcos Degli

Quote age unknown

Editorial win estimate: 50%
Fair odds: +100

Reference quote: -245 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds: 2.00

Estimated EV: -29.6%
Edge vs no-vig market: -18.4 pp

EV uses the displayed price: probability × decimal odds − 1. Edge is a percentage-point difference from a proportionally de-vigged, same-book pair. A dash marks a price without a same-book pair to compare.

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Quotes listed with a date but no time are treated as undated.

Fair odds are the break-even price under this estimate, not a recommended entry price. Model uncertainty can erase a small edge.

What price would change the calculation? · Mitch Raposo

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Assumed win probability (%)Your target estimated EV (%)

Required decimal price: 2.00 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

What price would change the calculation? · Marcos Degli

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Assumed win probability (%)Your target estimated EV (%)

Required decimal price: 2.00 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

Fair prices and expected value are arithmetic consequences of these subjective estimates. A positive calculation at an old quote is not a verified current opportunity.

Conviction

0

2/10

Editorial confidence in the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

Limited comparable evidence leaves the central estimate even; method risks remain different. Lean: No preference (50/50).

What backs the lean

Raposo needs to make each transition end in a stable position. Degli's regional record and Contender Series submission suggest that a prolonged scramble can keep generating finishing opportunities, but those results do not establish a comparable UFC rate sample.
Raposo and Degli are held at 50/50 because the evidence supports different routes without a convincing common baseline. Raposo has more established UFC experience and the larger decision allocation; Degli has the greater submission allocation from his documented finishing threat. Regional finishing success is not treated as a calibrated UFC rate.

What limits it

Degli makes his UFC debut, so his Contender Series figures stay out of the UFC comparison.
These are subjective editorial estimates without out-of-sample calibration; numerical precision does not imply measurement precision.

Final Assessment

Mitch Raposo 50% / Marcos Degli 50%. No overall preference; neither side has a central estimated advantage. Raposo and Degli are held at 50/50 because the evidence supports different routes without a convincing common baseline. Raposo has more established UFC experience and the larger decision allocation; Degli has the greater submission allocation from his documented finishing threat. Regional finishing success is not treated as a calibrated UFC rate.

Raposo rises toward 60% if he repeatedly ends transitions in secure positions; he falls toward 40% if each defended attack leaves Degli another grip, back exposure or submission sequence.

The fight in 30 seconds

Mitch Raposo

Marcos Degli

The Frame

The Fighters

Mitch Raposo

Mitch Raposo

Recent results

Marcos Degli

Marcos Degli

Recent results

The Numbers

Career statistics

The Story of the Fight

Raposo's structured minutes against Degli's connected finishing threats

Mitch Raposo

Marcos Degli

How Mitch Raposo loses

How Marcos Degli loses

Round 1: what to watch

Round 2: what to watch

Round 3: what to watch

The Verdict

Mitch Raposo 50% · Marcos Degli 50%

Editorial outcome distribution · 100 percentage points

Editorial estimate vs market

Mitch Raposo

Marcos Degli