Davey Grant vs Elijah Smith: analysis & prediction

MAIN CARD · BANTAMWEIGHT · 3 ROUNDSUFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs. Walker
Davey Grant — Bantamweight fighter

Davey Grant

“Dangerous”
18W8L
Muay Thai Technician
VS
Elijah Smith — Bantamweight fighter

Elijah Smith

“Swift”
10W1L
Control Grappler

Five submission losses meet a top-ten submission rate

BantamweightMeta APEX, Las Vegas, Nevada, United StatesNovember 7, 202625ft Octagon (Meta APEX)

Fight overview

The fight in 30 seconds

Smith fights in a hurry: he wants top position early and the back soon after, the way he choked out SuYoung You. Grant has never been knocked out, but his losses tend to start the same way — hurt or taken down early, then caught in a choke, as Charles Jourdain showed. If the veteran survives the opening minutes on his feet, his volume and leg kicks take over.

Paths that change the fight

  • Davey GrantGet through the first round upright, make the tie-ups expensive with knees and body kicks, and let the output that rises after the first five minutes take the last two rounds.
  • Elijah SmithClose the distance early, get on top, and find the back while Grant is still in the round where he has been hurt four times.
What limits this estimate · Analyst conviction: 6/10
  • 65% takedown defence across forty-six UFC attempts — the largest sample in the fight.
  • No knockout losses in twenty-six fights.

Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

Davey Grant

Quote age unknown
Model win probability
37%
Fair odds
+170
Reference quote
+161 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds
2.70

Elijah Smith

Quote age unknown
Model win probability
63%
Fair odds
-170
Reference quote
-190 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds
1.59
Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Quotes listed with a date but no time are treated as undated.

Sources and data limitations

Career statistics and fight results through September 2026. Composite scores, win probabilities, fair prices and conviction are MMA Analytics model outputs.

Model methodology
Read the evidenceInspect prices and assumptions
01

The Frame

What this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it

The Analyst's Take

This fight reduces to one overlap. Davey Grant has never been knocked out in twenty-six professional fights — but five of his eight losses are submissions, four of his seven UFC losses are submissions, and two of those came right after he was dropped in the first round, most recently by Charles Jourdain's guillotine at 3:05 in October 2025. Elijah Smith is 10-1 and 3-0 in the UFC, and everything he does well happens on top: 83 seconds of control per round against Grant's 33, 1.19 submission attempts per fifteen minutes (7th of 52 bantamweights), and 47% of his significant strikes landed on the ground. Grant brings the volume — 5.58 significant strikes per minute, 8th in the division — a sixteen-year edge in experience and a guard that inverted-triangled Raphael Assunção. Smith's UFC sample is three fights and twenty-five minutes, and his own takedown defence has conceded seven of thirteen attempts. Our composites make this close — 53 to 56 on the technical average — and the matchup mechanics break it toward the younger man: Elijah Smith 63%, Davey Grant 37%, conviction 6 out of 10.

Davey Grant
Attribute
Elijah Smith
40
Age
16-year gap24
5'8"
Height
+1" Smith5'9"
69"
Reach
+2" Smith71"
40"
Leg Reach
40"
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
SBG Manchester
Team
Factory X
Nov 30, 2013
Octagon Debut
Feb 15, 2025
9-7 across 16 bouts
UFC Record
3-0 across 3 bouts
33 sec
Control Time / Round
83 sec
Muay Thai fighter — 89% of significant strikes land at distance
Fighting Style
Control grappler — 47% of significant strikes land on the ground

The usual compensation for a forty-year-old is size, and Grant does not have it: Smith is an inch taller and two inches longer, sixteen years younger, with more than double the control time per round. What Grant has instead is volume of experience — 190 UFC minutes across forty-two rounds against 25 minutes across six — and a chin that has never been finished by strikes. The leg reaches are identical at 40 inches, which matters because Grant's signature weapon is the kick: 27% of his significant strikes land on the legs and another 33% on the body.

Venue Factor
The 25-foot Meta APEX cage suits the fighter who wants to close distance and pin an opponent to the fence, and that is Smith. Grant wins by out-touching people at range for fifteen minutes; the smaller cage gives him less room to circle out of the tie-up. It also rewards visible control in the judges' eyes — and 83 seconds of top position a round is visible.
02

The Fighters

Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage

Davey Grant landing a knee to the body in the Octagon

Davey Grant

Pro Record
18-8-0
UFC Record
9-7 across sixteen bouts since November 2013
Streak
Won his last — unanimous decision over Adrián Luna Martinetti, Apr 25, 2026
Finish Rate
72% (13 of 18 wins) — 4 KO/TKO, 9 submissions
Avg Fight Time
11:54
Chin · Never knocked out in twenty-six fights, but dropped four times in the UFC — every one in a first round, and two of them followed by submission lossesSOS · Elite tierMuay Thai Fighter

Grant has been in the UFC since the TUF 18 Finale in 2013 and his Octagon ledger reads like a metronome — 9-7, never more than three straight wins in the modern half of the run. The Luna Martinetti decision in April 2026 was a busy, competent veteran performance, 162 significant strikes landed, six months after Charles Jourdain dropped him and guillotined him in three minutes. His rate line is a kickboxer's: 5.58 landed per minute (8th of 52), 40% to the head, 33% to the body and 27% to the legs, 89% of it at distance. His eight defeats contain no knockouts and five submissions — Dale Dargan and Damian Stasiak by armbar, Chris Holdsworth by rear-naked choke, Manny Bermudez by triangle and Jourdain by guillotine — and both of the most recent came after a first-round knockdown. He is hard to finish standing and gettable once he is hurt or on the floor.

Elijah Smith landing a right hand in the Octagon

Elijah Smith

Pro Record
10-1-0
UFC Record
3-0 — two finishes
Streak
Eight straight wins since March 2023
Finish Rate
70% (7 of 10 wins) — 5 KO/TKO, 2 submissions
Avg Fight Time
8:25
Chin · Never knocked down in the UFC; his only loss was a third-round TKO against Reyes Cortez Jr. in March 2023SOS · UFC-level — no ranked opponent yetWrestler

Smith is the opposite shape to his opponent: eight straight wins, a Contender Series contract off a decision over Aaron Tau in September 2024, and a UFC run that has escalated — a decision over Vince Morales, a first-round slam-and-ground-strikes stoppage of Toshiomi Kazama in which he landed 36 of 43 strikes on the floor, and a rear-naked choke of SuYoung You at 1:04 of the second round after dropping him. His UFC line is built on top position: 83 seconds of control a round, 47% of his significant strikes on the ground at 81% accuracy, 1.19 submission attempts per fifteen minutes. The caution is the other side of the ledger. Opponents have taken him down seven times on thirteen attempts — SuYoung You four times — and his only professional loss came in the third round of the one fight he could not control.

Davey Grant
0 dealt · 0 absorbed
Knockdown Exchange
Knockdowns dealt vs absorbed.
Elijah Smith
0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Davey Grantsignature weapons

Chokes and TrianglesFour rear-naked chokes, three guillotines, a triangle and the inverted triangle that finished Raphael Assunção from his back at 4:43 of Round 3 in March 2023
×9
PunchesJonathan Martinez (R2 3:03), Martin Day (R3 2:38) and Louis Smolka (R3 0:49) in the UFC, off a kicking game that puts 60% of his strikes on the body and legs
×4

Elijah Smithsignature weapons

Knockout FinishesFive knockout wins, four of them in the first round — Toshiomi Kazama by slam and ground strikes at 4:10 after 36 of 43 strikes on the floor
×5
Rear-Naked Choke and Face CrankSuYoung You at 1:04 of Round 2 in March 2026 after dropping him, and a face crank of Dimas Chapa in 2023
×2

Davey Grant

W
Adrián Luna Martinetti
Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: prospect

R3
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal — Apr 25, 2026
L
Charles Jourdain
Submission — Guillotine choke

Opponent context: veteran

R1 (3:05)
UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. Allen — Oct 18, 2025
W
Da'Mon Blackshear
Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: veteran

R3
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. De Ridder — Jul 26, 2025
W
Ramon Taveras
Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: prospect

R3
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley — Dec 14, 2024
L
Daniel Marcos
Decision — Split

Opponent context: prospect

R3
UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura — Jul 22, 2023
Pattern

Four of his last five went the full fifteen minutes; the fifth ended in 185 seconds on the floor. That is the Davey Grant thesis in one table. When the fight stays standing he is durable, busy and hard to separate from — 147 significant strikes on Ramon Taveras, 162 on Adrián Luna Martinetti, and only one of Da'Mon Blackshear's five takedown attempts landed. When he is hurt early it ends fast: Jourdain dropped him and had a guillotine locked inside three minutes. Note the seventeen-month layoff between Marcos and Taveras and the two-fights-a-year cadence since.

Elijah Smith

W
SuYoung You
Submission — Rear-naked choke

Opponent context: prospect

R2 (1:04)
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos — Mar 14, 2026
W
Toshiomi Kazama
KO/TKO — Slam and ground strikes

Opponent context: prospect

R1 (4:10)
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandez — Aug 9, 2025
W
Vince Morales
Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: veteran

R3
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues — Feb 15, 2025
W
Aaron Tau
Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: prospect

R3
Contender Series — Sep 17, 2024
W
Josh Walker
TKO — punches and elbows
R1 (1:40)
Fury FC 92 — Jun 16, 2024
Pattern

Five straight wins, three by finish, none past the third round. The Morales fight is the most instructive: Smith landed 19 of 43 in the first, dropped to 1 of 5 in the second while spending 2:08 in control — as Morales also took him down twice and attempted two submissions — then rebounded to 20 of 49 in the third, almost all of it at distance. The Kazama stoppage is his ceiling, 36 of 43 ground strikes in a single round; the You finish shows the back take is real. In both finishes the opponent had also taken him down.

Davey Grant

Win Methods
Wins by Round

Elijah Smith

Win Methods
Wins by Round
Critical Insight
Grant's career is 4 knockouts, 9 submissions and 5 decisions in eighteen wins, and the clock has moved: all seven of his first-round finishes came on the regional circuit before 2013, while his four UFC finishes all arrived in the second or third round — Jonathan Martinez at 3:03 of the second, Martin Day at 2:38 and Louis Smolka at 0:49 of the third, Raphael Assunção by inverted triangle at 4:43 of the third. Smith is 5 knockouts, 2 submissions and 3 decisions in ten, with four first-round stoppages and both UFC finishes inside the first ten minutes. The twenty-four-year-old's equity is front-loaded; the forty-year-old's is back-loaded.

Opposition strength (no shared opponents)

Without a reliable shared-opponent table, compare who each fighter has been tested against using SOS tier, UFC sample size, and recent elite-tier form — not raw records alone.

FactorDaveyElijah
Strength of schedule (SOS tier)Elite tier — Marlon Vera twice, Raphael Assunção, Jonathan Martinez, Adrian Yanez, Daniel Marcos, Charles Jourdain, Da'Mon BlackshearUFC-level — no ranked opponent yet — Vince Morales, Toshiomi Kazama, SuYoung You, plus Aaron Tau on the Contender Series
UFC sample9-7 across sixteen bouts since November 20133-0 — two finishes
Recent ranked / elite touches (last 5)0 elite · 2 veteran tier0 elite · 1 veteran tier
Form-window difficulty edge: Fighter A (7 vs 5 tier points in listed bouts).
Last three opponentsAdrián Luna Martinetti, Charles Jourdain, Da'Mon BlackshearSuYoung You, Toshiomi Kazama, Vince Morales
  • Charles Jourdain (style reference): Jourdain dropped Grant and had a guillotine locked inside three minutes — the freshest example of the sequence that has ended Grant before: hurt early, then submitted.
  • Reyes Cortez Jr. (style reference): Smith's only professional defeat came in the third round of a fight that stayed standing — the fight Grant is trying to create.
03

The Numbers

Composites, division ranks and round-by-round evidence

Composite scores summarize selected statistics on a 0–100 scale. They are not win probabilities. Compare the underlying metrics, opponent quality and UFC experience before interpreting a score difference as a matchup advantage.

Striking

SLpM 25% · StrAcc 30% · StrDef 30% · SApM 15%

0
Davey
0
Elijahfew UFC fights

Grant lands 5.58 a minute against a 4.45 division mark (8th of 52) and absorbs 4.04. Smith lands 3.69 (34th) but absorbs only 1.70 (2nd) and his 55% accuracy (4th) is a ground number — 81% on the floor against 39% at distance.

Grappling

TD/15 25% · TDAcc 25% · TDDef 30% · Sub/15 20%

0
Davey
0
Elijahfew UFC fights

Smith is the better grappler by every offensive rate — 1.78 takedowns per fifteen at 75%, 1.19 submission attempts (7th), 83 seconds of control a round to 33 — while Grant's 65% takedown defence (sixteen of forty-six conceded) is the better defensive number than Smith's 46% (seven of thirteen).

Technical

(Striking + Grappling) / 2

0
Davey
0
Elijahfew UFC fights

Inverted profiles separated by three points. Grant is the better striker, Smith the better grappler, and what decides the fight is which skill gets to be the fight.

MetricDaveyElijah
Avg Fight Time11:548:25
Pace TierHigh volume — 5.58 SLpM (8th of 52)Below par — 3.69 SLpM (34th of 52)few UFC fights
R3/R1 Output128% — 27.6 sig in R3 against 21.6 in R1, over 12 third rounds102% — 20.0 against 19.7, on a single third roundfew UFC fights
Control / Round33 sec83 sec
Knockdowns Absorbed4 in 16 UFC bouts, all in first rounds0 in 3 UFC boutsfew UFC fights

Archetype Base Rate

Muay Thai Fighter 33.3%66.7% Wrestler

36-fight archetype sample — wrestlers 24-12 · Wrestlers are 24-12, 66.7%, over thirty-six meetings with Muay Thai fighters — close to the model's final number. It is a prior, not a projection: it knows nothing about Grant's 65% takedown defence or Smith's three-fight sample.

Davey GrantElijah Smith

Bantamweight

· 52 fighters

Rank bars use the recorded division cohort. Where no rank is shown, the comparison shows the difference from the published division average; the white marker denotes equality. Percentage differences are percentage points (pp). Higher is not always better: fewer strikes absorbed is preferable.

StatDaveyDavey comparisonDiv avgElijah comparisonElijah
SLpM5.58
8/52
4.45
34/52few UFC fights
3.69
Str Acc45%
28/52
46.2%
4/52few UFC fights
55% (39% at distance)
Str Def55%
27/52
53.7%
35/52few UFC fights
52%
SApM4.04
30/52
4.19
2/52few UFC fights
1.70
KD Avg0.32
28/52
0.42
12/52few UFC fights
0.59
Damage Ratio1.38
16/52
1.20
3/52few UFC fights
2.17
TD/150.95
31/52
1.49
14/52few UFC fights
1.78
TD Acc39% (12 of 31)
—
—
—few UFC fights
75% (3 of 4)
TD Def65% (16 conceded of 46)
32/52
—
42/52few UFC fights
46% (7 conceded of 13)
Sub/150.16
38/52
0.51
7/52elitefew UFC fights
1.19
Control / Round33 sec
—
—
—
83 sec
Avg Fight Time11:54
—
—
—
8:25
Statistical Verdict
Grant owns the volume, experience and takedown-defence cells; Smith owns the submission, control, absorption and knockdown cells. The location metrics decide it: 83 seconds of control a round against 33, 47% of significant strikes on the ground against 5%, and a submission rate seven times Grant's. Smith's own weak cell is takedown defence — seven of thirteen conceded — but Grant attempts fewer than one takedown every fifteen minutes.

Significant Strikes Landed per Round

⚠ R3: single-fight sample for Elijah Smith

Control Time per Round (sec)

Davey Grant

  • He opens on the legs and body and moves upstairs: 38.6% of his first-round strikes go low and only 24.9% to the head, and by the third it is 20.8% legs and 48.0% head.
  • Output rises from 21.6 to 27.6 significant strikes after the first round and holds there, with accuracy steady at 45–46%.
  • All four knockdowns he has absorbed in the UFC came in first rounds; his own knockdown rate peaks in the third at 0.17.
  • Sixteen, fourteen and twelve UFC fights behind the three rows — forty-two rounds in all.

Elijah Smith

  • 108 seconds of control in an average first round, falling to 72 and then 28 by the third — his top pressure is a first-round asset.
  • 61% of his first-round strikes land on the ground and none of his third-round strikes do — a single third round, against Vince Morales, fought almost entirely at distance.
  • His second rounds are where he hunts: two submission attempts and a knockdown across two second rounds, and the SuYoung You choke at 1:04.
  • Three, two and one UFC fights behind these rows; the third-round line is a single fight.
Critical Insight
These two tables describe opposite fighters moving in opposite directions. Grant's equity is back-loaded — output up after the first round, a knockdown rate that nearly triples by the third, twelve UFC third rounds, and every UFC finish after the five-minute mark. Smith's is front-loaded — 108 seconds of first-round control, a second-round submission window and a ground game that fades by the third. The danger for Grant is also front-loaded: all four knockdowns he has absorbed came in first rounds. He needs to get through the first ten minutes on his feet.

Strike targeting

Davey

Head
40%
Body
33%
Legs
27%

Elijah

Head
84%
Body
5%
Legs
11%

Head hunting vs body work vs leg attack — the shape of the damage.

Striking range — distance, clinch and ground

DaveyElijah
89%Distance46%
6%Clinch7%
5%Ground47%

Share of significant strikes landed at distance, in the clinch and on the ground across each fighter's UFC rounds, weighted by strike volume.

04

The Story of the Fight

Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath

Where the fight lives

Who owns each phase — and by how much
Open SpaceDavey owns it

5.58 landed per minute and a three-target kicking game, against 39% accuracy at distance

Pocket / ExchangesEven

Grant's volume against Smith's 1.70 absorbed per minute — and four first-round knockdowns absorbed by Grant

ClinchElijah owns it

Smith's entries come from closing distance; only 6% of Grant's strikes land in the clinch

GroundElijah owns it

83 control seconds a round to 33 and 1.19 submission attempts to 0.16 — into a guard that triangled Assunção

Path to Victory

Davey Grant

Get through the first round upright, make the tie-ups expensive with knees and body kicks, and let the output that rises after the first five minutes take the last two rounds.

Why they win
01
Volume and variety

5.58 significant strikes per minute, 8th of 52, spread 40% head, 33% body and 27% legs. A grappler who has to defend kicks and knees while setting up entries slows down.

02
Never knocked out

Twenty-six professional fights without a knockout loss. Smith's UFC stoppage came from top position, not a standing exchange.

03
Takedown defence 65%

Thirty of forty-six attempts stopped across sixteen UFC fights. Smith lands his takedowns at 75%, but on only four attempts in the UFC.

04
The later rounds

Output rises to 27.6 a round after the first and his knockdown rate peaks in the third; Smith's control falls to 28 seconds by the third and his only loss came in a third round.

05
A dangerous guard

Nine career submissions, including an inverted triangle of Raphael Assunção from his back. A grappler who postures carelessly is exposed.

The gameplan
  1. 1
    Fight in the middle of the cage

    Deny the tie-up and the fence. Smith's control comes from closing distance, not from shots at range.

  2. 2
    Protect the first round

    All four UFC knockdowns he has absorbed came in first rounds. Stay composed, stay upright.

  3. 3
    Open on the legs

    38.6% of his first-round strikes already go low. Chopping the lead leg slows level changes.

  4. 4
    Attack from the bottom

    If taken down, threaten the triangle and the guillotine immediately — the Assunção finish came from his back.

  5. 5
    Build to the third

    His output rises after the first round; Smith's control falls away. The later the fight goes, the better his odds.

Path to Victory

Elijah Smith

Close the distance early, get on top, and find the back while Grant is still in the round where he has been hurt four times.

Why they win
01
Control time

83 seconds a round against 33, and 47% of his significant strikes on the ground. In the APEX, top position scores.

02
Submission rate against five submission losses

1.19 attempts per fifteen minutes, 7th of 52, against a veteran whose losses are mostly chokes and armbars.

03
First-round danger

All four knockdowns Grant has absorbed in the UFC came in first rounds, and two led straight to submission losses. Smith is at his most dangerous in the opening five minutes.

04
Youth and frame

Sixteen years younger, an inch taller and two inches longer.

05
Damage economy

1.70 significant strikes absorbed per minute, 2nd in the division, and a 2.17 damage ratio.

The gameplan
  1. 1
    Close early

    Clinch and drag inside the first minute of every round rather than striking at range, where he lands 39%.

  2. 2
    Hunt the back, not the guard

    Every submission threat Grant owns is a guard submission; Smith's finishes come from the back.

  3. 3
    Use the first-round window

    Grant has been dropped in four first rounds. Pressure and ground strikes there.

  4. 4
    Respect the kicks

    27% of Grant's strikes go to the legs. A compromised lead leg is how a grappler loses a fight he was winning.

  5. 5
    Guard the takedown

    Seven of thirteen attempts against him have landed. Do not give up position in scrambles.

Danger Zone

How Davey Grant loses

  • The Jourdain sequence again: hurt early, taken down, and caught in a choke before the first round ends.

  • Death by control — three rounds underneath, no damage, and a clear decision to the younger man.

  • He survives the first but spends the second on his back, and the rear-naked choke that finished SuYoung You arrives.

Danger Zone

How Elijah Smith loses

  • He cannot get Grant down, and a fifteen-minute kickboxing match against a 5.58-strikes-a-minute veteran turns into the Reyes Cortez loss.

  • He takes Grant down carelessly, postures in the guard, and is triangled.

  • He is taken down himself — seven of thirteen attempts have landed against him — and loses the positional battle he needs.

The fight's central axis

The Lock and the Key

Grant has lost eight professional fights — five by submission, three by decision, none by knockout. Smith's UFC identity is control and submissions: 83 seconds of top position a round and 1.19 submission attempts every fifteen minutes. One man's failure mode is the other man's success mode, and there is little overlap anywhere else.

5 of 8
Grant's losses by submission
Where Grant has been hurt

The First-Round Problem

Grant has been knocked down four times in the UFC — by Manny Bermudez, Martin Day, Jonathan Martinez and Charles Jourdain — and every one came in a first round. Bermudez and Jourdain submitted him right after. Smith's control peaks in first rounds at 108 seconds. If Grant is going to lose, the evidence says it starts early.

4
knockdowns absorbed by Grant in the UFC, all in first rounds
A third-round warning in Smith's own numbers

The Ground Shift

61% of Smith's first-round strikes land on the ground and none of his third-round strikes do; his control falls 108 → 72 → 28 seconds. The third-round row is a single fight against Vince Morales, but the direction matches his only loss — a third-round TKO in a fight that stayed standing. Grant is the opposite: output up after the first round across twelve UFC third rounds.

108 → 28
Smith's control seconds, Round 1 to Round 3
The number his résumé hides

Smith's Takedown Defence

Opponents have landed seven of thirteen takedown attempts against Smith in three UFC fights — SuYoung You four times — and in both of his UFC finishes the opponent had also taken him down. Grant attempts fewer than one takedown every fifteen minutes, so the hole may never be tested; but a veteran with nine submissions who reverses a scramble is the underdog's quiet path.

46%
Smith's takedown defence (7 of 13 conceded)
The prospect-versus-veteran gap

Experience Against Sample

Grant has 190 UFC minutes across sixteen fights against a schedule that includes Marlon Vera twice and Raphael Assunção. Smith has 25 minutes across three fights, none against a ranked opponent. We know exactly what beats Grant; we know very little about Smith's ceiling — which caps how confidently we can favour him.

The Five-Round Clock

Davey Grant danger windowElijah Smith danger windowNeutral / contested
R1 · 0:00–5:00Smith's best round

108 seconds of first-round control, four career first-round finishes — and all four knockdowns Grant has absorbed in the UFC came in first rounds. Grant has never been finished by strikes, but this is where he has been hurt.

Critical Insight
The equity curve crosses late in the second round. Smith wins the fight decided in the first ten minutes; Grant wins the fight still undecided in the third. Grant's path is not a highlight — it is surviving the rounds where he has been hurt before, then taking a third round the young man cannot afford to need.

Finish Threat by Round

Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.

05

The Verdict

One hundred simulated fights, the betting market, and our conviction

If you only read 3 things
1

Grant has never been knocked out, but five of his eight losses are submissions and his UFC knockdowns all came in first rounds. Smith's best work is control and submissions in the first ten minutes. The failure mode and the success mode line up.

2

Grant is the busier, more varied striker with the better takedown defence and far more experience; his path is surviving early and taking over late, when Smith's control fades.

3

Model: Elijah Smith 63% / Davey Grant 37%, conviction 6/10. Smith by decision is the most likely outcome at 32%, Smith by submission the largest finish at 21%, and Grant's 24% decision path needs no finish at all.

Model outcomes per 100 fights

Each square represents one percentage point of the model distribution, not an observed fight. This visualization does not measure model accuracy or reduce uncertainty in the inputs.

Grant Decision — 24%Grant KO/TKO — 8%Grant Submission — 5%Smith Decision — 32%Smith Submission — 21%Smith KO/TKO — 10%

Each square = 1 model percentage point. Davey Grant gold · Elijah Smith orange · color opacity: 100% = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

Loss-mechanism overlap

Five career submission losses — four of seven in the UFC — against a top-ten divisional submission rate. The largest single input, and the reason Smith's submission bucket is the biggest finish bucket on the board at 21.

The first round

Grant has absorbed four UFC knockdowns, all in first rounds, and two became submission losses. Smith averages 108 seconds of first-round control.

Control scoring

83 seconds a round against 33 in a cage and a room that reward visible top position. This is why Smith's decision bucket is the most likely single outcome at 32.

Grant's volume and takedown defence

5.58 landed per minute and 65% takedown defence across 190 UFC minutes — what funds his 24-point decision path and his 8-point late stoppage.

Sample size

Three UFC fights and 25 minutes for Smith, sixteen and 190 for Grant. Wrestlers are 24-12 against Muay Thai fighters historically; the sample gap caps the conviction at six.

Fight Scripts

0%
of simulations

Death by Control

Smith closes, clinches, drags Grant to the fence and banks top position every round. No finish, no drama — three judges scoring what they can see.

Scripted outcomes for Davey Grant vs Elijah Smith — how each version of this fight unfolds.

Davey Grant win probability
0%
8%
24%
5%
KO/TKODECSUB

  • Accumulation, not power. Four career knockouts in eighteen wins, all three UFC ones in the second or third round — the late branch, when Smith's control has faded and the leg and body damage shows.

  • His realistic path. It absorbs every simulation in which the takedowns do not land: 65% defence, 5.58 landed per minute, and a young opponent whose top pressure fades by the third.

  • Small but not token. The inverted triangle of Raphael Assunção from his back is a real, recent finish, and a grappler who postures carelessly in that guard is the victim profile.

Elijah Smith win probability
0%
10%
32%
21%
KO/TKODECSUB

  • Restrained. Grant has never been knocked out, so this is ground strikes from top position — the Kazama pattern — rather than a standing knockout.

  • The most likely single outcome: control in a room that rewards it, against a fighter who has struggled to get back up once taken down.

  • The largest finish bucket and the direct product of the overlap: five career submission losses against a top-ten submission rate, with Smith's attempts and his UFC choke all in the first ten minutes.

Projected Scorecards

How the model scores each round
R1
Elijah
R2
Elijah
R3
Davey
29-28 Smith
Control banks the first two, Grant takes the third
The most likely card if it goes the distance
30-27 Smith
Three rounds of visible top position
Common if the first takedown lands early
29-28 Grant
The takedowns stall and the leg and body work compounds
His realistic path, and it needs no finish

Model and price

Davey Grant

Quote age unknown
Model win probability
37%
Fair odds
+170
Reference quote
+161 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds
2.70
Estimated EV
-3.4%
Edge vs no-vig market
+0.1 pp

Elijah Smith

Quote age unknown
Model win probability
63%
Fair odds
-170
Reference quote
-190 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds
1.59
Estimated EV
-3.8%
Edge vs no-vig market
-0.1 pp

EV uses the displayed price: probability × decimal odds − 1. Edge is a percentage-point difference from a proportionally de-vigged, same-book pair. A dash marks a price without a same-book pair to compare.

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Quotes listed with a date but no time are treated as undated.

Fair odds are the break-even price under this estimate, not a recommended entry price. Model uncertainty can erase a small edge.

What price would change the calculation? · Davey Grant

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Required decimal price: 2.71 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

What price would change the calculation? · Elijah Smith

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Required decimal price: 1.59 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

Original analyst price notes

These notes describe the original analysis and may refer to older prices.

Pass the moneyline at BetOnline's November 1 prices: Smith −190 is shorter than the model's −170 fair line, while Grant +161 is below the model's +170 requirement. The model's fair method prices remain Smith by decision +213, Grant by decision +317 and Smith by submission +376; compare those only with live prop quotes.

Conviction
0
6/10

Editorial confidence in the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

A clear, structurally grounded lean to the grappler — the loss-mechanism overlap, the first-round knockdown history, the sixteen-year age gap and the control-time gap all point the same way — capped because the composites are close, Smith's UFC sample is three fights and 25 minutes, and Grant has never been knocked out. Lean: Elijah Smith.

What backs the lean

  • Five of Grant's eight career losses and four of seven UFC losses are submissions, against a submission rate 7th of 52.

  • 83 seconds of control a round against 33 — the numbers that decide APEX cards.

  • Grant has been dropped in four UFC first rounds, and two became submission losses.

  • Sixteen years younger, an inch taller, two inches longer, and eight straight wins.

What limits it

  • 65% takedown defence across forty-six UFC attempts — the largest sample in the fight.

  • No knockout losses in twenty-six fights.

  • Grant's output rises after the first round while Smith's control fades to 28 seconds by the third.

  • Smith's own takedown defence (seven of thirteen conceded) and a three-fight sample with no ranked opponent.

Final Assessment

In roughly sixty-three of one hundred simulations, Elijah "Swift" Smith solves the veteran the way the data says he should — most often by closing the distance, getting on top and banking control every round until the judges have little else to score (32%); frequently by finding the back in the first ten minutes, the same shape as the SuYoung You choke and the same family of finish behind four of Grant's seven UFC losses (21%); and occasionally by turning top position into ground strikes the referee has to stop (10%).

In the other thirty-seven, the thirteen-year veteran refuses the script — most often by getting through the first round upright, defending the entries at the clip he has defended for a decade, and taxing a one-dimensional opponent with kicks and body work until the cards are his (24%); sometimes by finding a late stoppage when Smith's control has drained away (8%); and occasionally by finishing from underneath, as he did to Raphael Assunção (5%).

The data gives Smith the control, the submissions, the youth and the frame; it gives Grant the volume, the takedown defence, the later rounds and a chin that has never been finished. On November 7 we take Elijah Smith, most likely on the cards and plausibly with a choke inside ten minutes, while respecting Davey Grant at plus-money.

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