Sedriques Dumas vs Luis Hernandez – UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos Fight Analytics

MAIN CARD · LIGHT HEAVYWEIGHT · 3 ROUNDSUFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos

Sedriques Dumas

“The Reaper”

10W5L

Kickboxer, UFC middleweight sample

…

Luis Hernandez

“The Stache”

8W0L

Southpaw finisher, UFC debut

…

Mickey Gall is out. The bout moved to 205. The 52/48 welterweight estimate does not transfer.

Light HeavyweightMeta APEX, Las VegasSeptember 26, 202625-foot Octagon

Fight overview

The fight in 30 seconds

Length and cold UFC form against an unbeaten finisher making his UFC debut. No win probability is assigned.

Paths that change the fight

Sedriques DumasUse the 79-inch reach, avoid the neck, and let the fight become the second and third rounds his log already shows.
Luis HernandezFinish. Eight of eight wins ended inside the distance, and he has never won a decision.

What limits this estimate · Analyst conviction: 0/10

The two rate lines are not comparable.
Both men are changing weight relative to the sample that produced the numbers.

Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

Sedriques Dumas

Insufficient price data

Model win probability: 0%
Fair odds: —

Reference quote: —
Fair decimal odds: —

Luis Hernandez

Insufficient price data

Model win probability: 0%
Fair odds: —

Reference quote: —
Fair decimal odds: —

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Quotes listed with a date but no time are treated as undated.

Sources and data limitations

Career statistics and fight results through September 2026. Statistics may include bouts outside the UFC where noted. Composite scores, win probabilities, fair prices and analyst conviction are MMA Analytics estimates, not observed outcomes.

Model methodology

Read the evidence Inspect prices and assumptions

The Frame

Gall out, 205 pounds, and the measurements that still hold

The Analyst's Take

Sedriques Dumas (10-5) meets Luis Hernandez (8-0, The Stache) at light heavyweight for three rounds. Dumas has nine UFC bouts on a line built mostly at 185. Hernandez has zero UFC bouts. His career rates, including a Contender Series win, are not an opponent-adjusted UFC sample, so this page does not assign a win probability.

Sedriques Dumas

Attribute

Luis Hernandez

Age

6'2"+5"

Height

5'9"

79"+6"

Reach

73"

42.5"

Leg Reach

—

Kickboxer, counter

Style

Southpaw

Pensacola, Florida

Origin

—

UFC bouts

205 booked

Profile weight

185 listed, booked at 205

Dumas is five inches taller with six inches of reach. Hernandez is a southpaw whose listed weight is 185 and who is booked at 205. Dumas's own UFC rates come from fights below 205.

Venue Factor
The Meta APEX cage is 25 feet. It shortens the distance a 5'9" southpaw has to cover and compresses the exit a 6'2" counter striker wants. It does not erase a six-inch reach gap.

The Fighters

A UFC sample against an unbeaten debut

Sedriques Dumas

Pro Record

10-5-0 (1 NC)

UFC Record

9 UFC bouts

Streak

Three losses and a no contest in his last five results

Finish Rate

60% (6 of 10 wins)

Avg Fight Time

—

Chin · —SOS · UFC middleweight sampleKickboxer / long-range counter

From August 2024 through April 2026 the carried log is a decision win over Tiuliulin, a knockout loss to Oleksiejczuk, a no contest with Reese, and submission losses to Johnson and McVey. That is a cold UFC sample, not a prospect arriving upward.

Luis Hernandez

Pro Record

8-0-0

UFC Record

0 UFC bouts

Streak

8-0, all eight wins finished

Finish Rate

100% (8 of 8)

Avg Fight Time

—

Chin · —SOS · UFC debutSouthpaw finisher

Recent results: rear-naked choke of Hugo Guillon on Contender Series (Sep 15, 2026, R2 1:01), TKO of Paulo Machado (Oct 11, 2025, R3 3:13), standing guillotine of Miles Hunsinger (Jun 29, 2025, R2 0:49). Before that, first-round rear-naked chokes of Joaquin Campos (Apr 30, 2025, 2:52) and Nick Lancaster (May 12, 2024, 2:56).

Sedriques Dumas

0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Knockdown Exchange

Knockdowns dealt vs absorbed.

Luis Hernandez

— dealt · — absorbed

Sedriques Dumassignature weapons

KO/TKOCareer count from the Sep 10 review, not a named technique

×4

SubmissionCareer count. Octagon attempt rate is 0.22 per 15.

×2

Luis Hernandezsignature weapons

Rear-naked chokeHugo Guillon, DWCS, R2 1:01

×1

Standing guillotineMiles Hunsinger, R2 0:49

×1

TKOPaulo Machado, R3 3:13

×1

Sedriques Dumas

Jackson McVey

Submission — brabo choke

Opponent context: ufc

R1 (2:14)

UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal — Apr 25, 2026

Donte Johnson

Submission — ninja choke

Opponent context: ufc

R2 (1:25)

UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Onama — Nov 1, 2025

Zachary Reese

No contest — accidental groin kick

Opponent context: ufc

R1 (0:51)

Noche UFC: Lopes vs. Silva — Sep 13, 2025

Michal Oleksiejczuk

TKO — punches and elbows

Opponent context: ufc

R1 (2:49)

UFC 314 — Apr 12, 2025

Denis Tiuliulin

Decision — unanimous

Opponent context: ufc

UFC on ABC: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov — Aug 3, 2024

Pattern

The September 10 review was not re-pulled on September 25. Two of the three losses in this window are submissions, next to a 33% UFC takedown defense. The no contest is neither a win nor a loss.

Luis Hernandez

Hugo Guillon

Submission — rear-naked choke

R2 (1:01)

Dana White's Contender Series: Contender Series 2026: Week 6 — Sep 15, 2026

Paulo Machado

TKO — knees and punches

R3 (3:13)

Combat Night — Oct 11, 2025

Miles Hunsinger

Submission — guillotine choke

R2 (0:49)

Tuff-N-Uff — Jun 29, 2025

Joaquin Campos

Submission — rear-naked choke

R1 (2:52)

Xtreme Fighting Championships — Apr 30, 2025

Nick Lancaster

Submission — rear-naked choke

R1 (2:56)

Fury FC 90 — May 12, 2024

Pattern

5-0 in the last five. Wins over Guillon (submission), Machado (TKO), Hunsinger (submission), Campos (submission) and Lancaster (submission). Most recent: a win over Guillon, Sep 15, 2026.

Sedriques Dumas

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Luis Hernandez

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Critical Insight
Dumas: 4 KO/TKOs, 2 submissions and 4 decisions in 10 professional wins. All six of Dumas's finishes came inside the first two rounds, four in round one. Hernandez: 3 KO/TKOs, 5 submissions and 0 decisions in 8 professional wins. Of Hernandez's 8 finishes, five in round one, two in round two and one in round three. The round bars count every professional win, with decisions in the DEC column.

Opposition strength (no shared opponents)

Without a reliable shared-opponent table, compare who each fighter has been tested against using SOS tier, UFC sample size, and recent elite-tier form — not raw records alone.

Factor	Sedriques	Luis
Strength of schedule (SOS tier)	UFC middleweight sample — Line measured mostly at 185. This bout is 205.	UFC debut — Career line includes regional fights and DWCS. DWCS is not a UFC bout.
UFC sample	9 UFC bouts	0 UFC bouts
Recent ranked / elite touches (last 5)	0 elite · 0 veteran tier	0 elite · 0 veteran tier
Form-window tier points tied in the last-five sample — compare SOS notes and methods, not volume alone.
Last three opponents	Jackson McVey, Donte Johnson, Zachary Reese	Hugo Guillon, Paulo Machado, Miles Hunsinger

Sedriques

Luisfew UFC fights

An overall number would pretend the samples are comparable.

Metric	Sedriques	Luis
Avg Fight TimeAvg Fight TimeAverage fight duration — long averages mark proven cardio and decision-ready grinders.	7:37	UFC debut
Sample	9 UFC bouts	0 UFC bouts
R1 sig. landed	5.4 (n=9)	—few UFC fights
Weight	Rates at 185	Profile 185, bout 205
Scheduled rounds	3	3

Archetype Base Rate

Not priced 50%50% Not priced

No archetype sample · The even bar is not a prediction and not a lean.

Sedriques DumasLuis Hernandez

Light heavyweight booking, mixed samples

These values describe each fighter; no division rank is assigned.

Stat	Sedriques	Luis
SLpMSLpMSignificant Strikes Landed per Minute — offensive striking volume. Higher = busier striker.	1.97 UFC	11.14 career
Str AccStr AccStriking Accuracy — share of significant strikes thrown that land. Higher = more precise.	44%	57%
Str DefStr DefStriking Defense — share of opponents' significant strikes that do NOT land. Higher = harder to hit.	53%	39%
SApMSApMSignificant Strikes Absorbed per Minute — how much a fighter gets hit. Lower = better.	2.64	6.32
KD AvgKD AvgKnockdown Average — knockdowns scored per 15 minutes. The one-shot power indicator.	0 /15	—
TD/15TD/15Takedowns Landed per 15 minutes — wrestling pressure / takedown engine.	1.30	2.49
TD Acc	28%	33%
TD DefTD DefTakedown Defense — share of opponents' takedown attempts stuffed.	33%	100%
Sub/15Sub/15Submission Attempts per 15 minutes — how actively a fighter hunts the finish on the mat.	0.22	2.50

Statistical Verdict
No division ranks. Dumas is unranked and his line is a middleweight aggregate. Hernandez is unranked and making his UFC debut. The radar plots both career lines so the gap is visible, and the gap is not a fair comparison.

Significant Strikes Landed per Round

Control Time per Round (sec)

Sedriques Dumas

Round 1 is a control round: 5.4 significant strikes and 95 seconds of control across nine UFC openers.
Output rises in Round 2 (10.4 landed, 57.9% accuracy, five rounds).
Round 3 keeps the strikes (11.3) on only three observed rounds. That is not a cardio proof.

Luis Hernandez

Hernandez makes his UFC debut.
Two of the three named finishes arrived in Round 2.
The Machado TKO arrived at 3:13 of Round 3, so a third round is not automatically a decision.

Critical Insight
The round where Dumas has historically started to land is the same round in which Hernandez has finished two opponents. That is a rhyme in their records, not a probability.

The Story of the Fight

Advantages, worst cases, and the patterns that are actually sourced

Where the fight lives

Who owns each phase — and by how much

Open SpaceSedriques owns it

79-inch reach versus 73. Confidence is not a win share. It marks whose length the phase belongs to.

Pocket / ExchangesEven

Hernandez's career line says he lands and gets hit. Dumas's UFC line says he lands little and absorbs less. Different samples.

ClinchEven

The small cage helps the shorter man arrive. It does not complete the shot.

GroundEven

Dumas's recent losses and Hernandez's submission count rhyme. Hernandez's 100% takedown defense is untested in the UFC.

The Deep Read

Mickey Gall withdrew. The retired preview was Gall 52%, Dumas 48%, at welterweight. Opponent, weight, and sample all changed. Anyone still holding that number is handicapping a fight that was cancelled.

Dumas brings length, nine UFC bouts, a quiet first round, and a recent run of being finished. Hernandez brings an 8-0 finishing record, a southpaw label, and a career line that lands and absorbs at a high clip. Those columns are not comparable. Subtracting 1.97 from 11.14 produces a false gap.

The honest read is a debut handicap with one measured fighter who is not in form. That is a reason to watch the first clinch. It is not a reason to print a percentage.

Luis Hernandez facing an opponent in the cage, maroon shorts, mustache — Luis Hernandez, The Stache, in the cage. The Contender Series win is not a UFC bout.

Path to Victory

Sedriques Dumas

Use the 79-inch reach, avoid the neck, and let the fight become the second and third rounds his log already shows.

Why they win

Length

Six inches of reach and five inches of height do not depend on a rate comparison.

A real UFC sample

Nine bouts show low early output, more strikes if it lasts, and takedown defense that has been beaten.

Lower UFC absorption

2.64 per minute and 53% defense, against a career line that says Hernandez is hit often. The samples are different. The defensive fact is still the one to scout.

He has won decisions

Four of ten wins went to the cards. Hernandez has zero decision wins.

The fence cuts both ways

A 42.5-inch leg reach can still punish entries in a small cage.

The gameplan

1
Keep the reach
Lead side and rear kick between himself and the southpaw.
2
Do not prove the takedown rate
1.30 attempts at 28% accuracy is not the side that has been winning. His recent losses are on defense.
3
Separate before the back is taken
The Guillon finish was a rear-naked choke.
4
Get to Round 2 upright
That is where his logged output rises.
5
Make 205 a camp, not a drain
Nothing in the 185 line prices a bad weight cut.

Path to Victory

Luis Hernandez

Finish. Eight of eight wins ended inside the distance, and he has never won a decision.

Why they win

Every win is a finish

Five submissions, three knockouts, no decisions.

The neck, twice recently

Rear-naked choke and standing guillotine. Dumas's last two losses were submissions.

Southpaw pressure

The style label is southpaw against a long counter striker. That is a picture, not a win condition.

He has been to Round 3 and finished

Machado ended at 3:13 of Round 3.

Career attempt rates

11.14 SLpM and 2.50 submission attempts per 15 describe his career line outside the UFC. The same line has him absorbing 6.32 with 39% defense.

The gameplan

1
Do not out-point the reach
His wins are finishes. The entry has to be the plan.
2
Show both neck attacks
Standing guillotine and back take are different problems.
3
Accept the damage
The career line already says he gets hit. The finish has to be worth it.
4
Treat Round 3 as new territory
A decision would be his first win of that type.
5
The weigh-in is part of the fight
A 185 listing in a 205 bout is either a comfortable move up or a mismatch with the body that produced the rates.

Danger Zone

How Sedriques Dumas loses

The entry sticks and the fight looks like the McVey or Johnson submission losses.
He gives away the reach in a 25-foot cage and one clinch is enough.
205 is not 185, and the low-output defensive line does not survive the weight.

Danger Zone

How Luis Hernandez loses

He cannot cross six inches without eating the counter, and 39% career defense shows up.
The fight lasts. He has never won a decision.
Eleven days after the Guillon finish, at a higher weight, the debut timing is short. That is a freshness question, not a skill grade.

Different opponent, different weight

The Gall file is dead

The 52/48 welterweight estimate and the Gall −165 / Dumas +140 prices were withdrawn. Hernandez has no verified BetOnline number.

UFC bouts for Hernandez

33% defense versus 100% defense

Proven weakness, untested strength

Dumas's takedown defense has failed inside the UFC, recently by submission. Hernandez's 100% career takedown defense has never been tested in the UFC. A proven weakness outranks an untested strength as a reason not to trust the 100. It is not a reason to pick Dumas.

33%

Dumas UFC TD defense

Finish rate and per-minute strikes

Output inflation

11.14 SLpM next to an 8-0 finish-only record can be real volume or a short clock. Machado going to 3:13 of Round 3 is the one result that argues against a pure blitz. One fight is not a pace proof.

Sep 15 to Sep 26

Eleven days

Hernandez's Contender Series finish is a short turnaround into a UFC debut at a higher listed weight. Dumas has had camp time since April 25 and a bad piece of film to correct. Camp time is not a solved grappling problem.

Not a projection

Round 2 rhyme

Dumas's best striking round in a nine-fight log is Round 2. Hernandez has also finished twice in Round 2.

The Five-Round Clock

Sedriques Dumas danger windowLuis Hernandez danger windowNeutral / contested

R1 · 0:00–5:00Control versus the first entry

Dumas's UFC openers are low connect and high control. Five of Hernandez's eight wins ended in Round 1.

Critical Insight
Rounds 4 and 5 are not booked. A five-round clock would describe a different fight.

Finish Threat by Round

Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.

The Verdict

No simulated share, no price, no side

If you only read 3 things

Gall is out, the weight is 205, and the old 52/48 does not transfer.

Dumas has the length and the only UFC sample, and that sample is cold: submission losses in the last two decided results.

Hernandez is 8-0 with all finishes and makes his UFC debut. This page does not pick a winner.

Model outcomes per 100 fights

Each square represents one percentage point of the model distribution, not an observed fight. This visualization does not measure model accuracy or reduce uncertainty in the inputs.

Dumas decision — 0%Dumas KO/TKO — 0%Dumas submission — 0%Hernandez KO/TKO — 0%Hernandez decision — 0%Hernandez submission — 0%

Each square = 1 model percentage point. Sedriques Dumas gold · Luis Hernandez orange · color opacity: 100% = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

Hernandez's UFC debut

The career line cannot be dropped into an opponent-adjusted model.

Weight class

Dumas at 205 is not the man who produced 1.97 SLpM. Hernandez at 205 may not be the man who produced 11.14.

No common opponent

Nothing in their records connects them.

No market

The Gall prices were removed. No Hernandez number replaced them.

One UFC record

Only Dumas has UFC rounds to compare.

Fight Scripts

of simulations

The reach round

Dumas keeps the 79-inch reach and the round looks like his historical opener: few connects, some fence time. Not assigned a share.

Scripted outcomes for Sedriques Dumas vs Luis Hernandez — how each version of this fight unfolds.

Sedriques Dumas win probability

KO/TKODECSUB

Not assigned.
Not assigned. Four career decision wins are a method fact, not a fight-night share.
Not assigned.

Luis Hernandez win probability

KO/TKODECSUB

Not assigned. Three career KO/TKO wins are 38% of his wins, not 38% of this fight.
He has never won a decision. That is not a 0% prediction.
Not assigned. Five career submissions are the record, not a model bucket.

Projected Scorecards

How the model scores each round

Even

—

No card is projected

A scorecard would be a pick. None is made.

Model and price

Sedriques Dumas

Insufficient price data

Model win probability: 0%
Fair odds: —

Reference quote: —
Fair decimal odds: —

Estimated EV: —
Edge vs no-vig market: —

Luis Hernandez

Insufficient price data

Model win probability: 0%
Fair odds: —

Reference quote: —
Fair decimal odds: —

Estimated EV: —
Edge vs no-vig market: —

EV uses the displayed price: probability × decimal odds − 1. Edge is a percentage-point difference from a proportionally de-vigged, same-book pair. A dash marks a price without a same-book pair to compare.

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Quotes listed with a date but no time are treated as undated.

Fair odds are the break-even price under this estimate, not a recommended entry price. Model uncertainty can erase a small edge.

What price would change the calculation? · Sedriques Dumas

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Assumed win probability (%)Your target estimated EV (%)

Enter a probability above 0 and below 100, and a target EV from 0 to 100.

What price would change the calculation? · Luis Hernandez

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Assumed win probability (%)Your target estimated EV (%)

Enter a probability above 0 and below 100, and a target EV from 0 to 100.

Original analyst price notes

These notes describe the original analysis and may refer to older prices.

No value is marked. A fair price needs a probability, and this page refused to invent one.

Conviction

0/10

Editorial confidence in the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

Dumas brings nine UFC bouts, the last in April 2026; Hernandez makes his debut. A score attached to a name would be a pick. Lean: No side.

What backs the lean

Dumas is longer and has nine UFC bouts.
His recent log is a run of being finished, which cuts the other way.
Hernandez's 8-0 is all finishes and zero UFC rounds.

What limits it

The two rate lines are not comparable.
Both men are changing weight relative to the sample that produced the numbers.
Dumas is 1-4 in his last five, and all four losses came inside the distance.

Final Assessment

This is a new fight. The Gall-versus-Dumas preview is retired.

Dumas has length, a measured UFC line, poor recorded takedown defense, and a cold recent log. Hernandez has an unbeaten finishing record and makes his UFC debut.

Watch the first clinch. Do not treat a blank probability as a 50/50 lean.

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