Raul Rosas Jr. vs Raoni Barcelos: analysis & prediction

MAIN EVENT · BANTAMWEIGHT · 5 ROUNDSUFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos
Raul Rosas Jr. — Bantamweight fighter

Raul Rosas Jr.

“El Niño Problema”
12W1L
Takedown-Volume Grappler
VS
Raoni Barcelos — Bantamweight fighter

Raoni Barcelos

22W5L
Wrestling-First Muay Thai

The division's best takedown engine against the division's best takedown wall — for twenty-five minutes neither man has ever fought.

BantamweightMeta APEX, Las Vegas, Nevada, United StatesSeptember 26, 202625ft Octagon — the APEX small cage

Fight overview

The fight in 30 seconds

Rosas's high takedown volume meets Barcelos's recorded 88% takedown defence. The decisive distinction is between stopping the first shot and escaping the whole sequence: Rosas needs repeated entries and attacking positions, while Barcelos needs separation that lets him punish the next approach.

Paths that change the fight

  • Raul Rosas Jr.Land takedowns at will, early and often. His entire measured advantage lives in Round 1 — +3.8 differential, 45% takedown accuracy, 2:50 of control — against a documented slow starter, and every conversion is worth a round on the cards.
  • Raoni BarcelosStuff the first three entries and make the fourth expensive. 88% takedown defence over 41 attempts that rises to 92% by the third round, against a man whose only other tool lands 1.34 significant strikes per minute.
What limits this estimate · Analyst conviction: 6/10
  • 6.10 takedowns per fifteen minutes is division-leading and roughly four times benchmark — even 88% defence leaks two to four takedowns across twenty-five minutes, and each one is a round.
  • The highest control-time percentage in UFC bantamweight history at 56.9%, in the APEX, in front of judges who reward it.

Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

Raul Rosas Jr.

Freshness unverified
Model win probability
43%
Fair decimal odds
2.33
Reference quote-180 (BetOnline)

Raoni Barcelos

Freshness unverified
Model win probability
57%
Fair decimal odds
1.75
Reference quote+153 (BetOnline)
Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Sources and data limitations

Sources cited in this analysis: UFC.com, UFCStats, Wikipedia. Statistics reflect the sample and reporting dates available for this matchup. Coverage can differ between fighters and may include bouts outside the UFC where noted. Unavailable measurements are not zeros. Projections, composite scores and analyst conviction are estimates, not observed outcomes.

Model methodology
Read the evidenceInspect prices and assumptions
01

The Frame

What this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it

The Analyst's Take

Raul Rosas Jr. is 21 years old, owns the highest control-time percentage in UFC bantamweight history at 56.9%, leads the division with 6.10 takedowns per fifteen minutes — roughly four times the 1.50 benchmark — and put sixteen takedowns on Rob Font in March. He also lands 1.34 significant strikes per minute, which is 78th of 79 listed UFC bantamweights. Raoni Barcelos is 39, a five-time Brazilian national freestyle wrestling champion, and the structural counter: 4.65 significant strikes per minute at 52% accuracy, 61% striking defence, and 88% takedown defence built over a 41-attempt sample that includes Ricky Simón and Montel Jackson. The entire bout compresses into one question with a measurable answer on both sides — can the best takedown-volume engine in the division break the best takedown-defence wall in the division, and if it cannot, does Rosas have any offence at all? The round-by-round curves make it worse for the kid: his landed-minus-absorbed differential runs +3.8 in R1, −2.5 in R2, −3.7 in R3, while Barcelos's runs −4.9, +8.5, +4.9. One man front-loads; the other is a documented Strong Finisher whose third-round output is 161% of his first. Adding two championship rounds extends Barcelos's best window and Rosas's worst. Lean: Barcelos 57% / Rosas 43%, conviction 6 out of 10.

Raul Rosas Jr.
Attribute
Raoni Barcelos
2118-year gap — the largest on the card
Age
39
5'9" (69.0")+1.5" Rosas
Height
5'7.5" (67.5")
67"
Reach
67"
40"+1" Rosas
Leg Reach
39"
Southpaw / switch
Stance
Orthodox
Rosas Brothers MMA — Las Vegas
Team
Top Brother — Rio de Janeiro
Dec 10, 2022
Octagon Debut
Jul 14, 2018
7
Octagon Bouts
15
#11
Division Rank
#13
Zero — never past 15:00 at any level
25-Minute Fights
Two — RFA 29 (2015) and RFA 39 (2016), both wins
Freestyle grappling — takedown volume into back takes
Fighting Style
Wrestling-first Muay Thai — clinch-heavy pressure striking

The height is Rosas's, the frame is Barcelos's, and the reach is nobody's. Rosas is an inch and a half taller at 5'9" against 5'7.5", with one inch more leg reach at 40 to 39 — and the arm reach is identical at 67 inches, so there is no length story here at all. What there is instead is an eighteen-year age gap, the largest on this entire card, between a 21-year-old with the highest control-time rate in bantamweight history and a 39-year-old with the ninth-best takedown defence in the division. Rosas is a natural southpaw who switches; Barcelos is a conventional orthodox pressure striker whose computed archetype reads Muay Thai Fighter / Clinch-Heavy Nak Muay, with 74.2% of his significant strikes landed at distance and an extraordinary 85.5% clinch accuracy. The open-stance dynamic marginally helps Rosas's level changes off the lead-leg side — and it also opens Barcelos's rear-hand cross and his lead hook to a southpaw's exposed liver, which is precisely the shot Umar Nurmagomedov's body work exploited on Barcelos and precisely the shot Barcelos has used to build a career knockdown ratio of 2.50, ten dealt against four absorbed.

Venue Factor
The APEX is the smallest cage the UFC uses, and that is not a neutral fact. A tight cage helps a takedown-volume grappler close distance and cuts off escape angles — that is Rosas's argument. It also compresses the fight into the exact clinch space where Barcelos lands 85.5% of his clinch strikes and where his freestyle-wrestling base turns a failed level change into a front headlock. Both men headline for the first time in their careers, and both do so in a building where there is no crowd to feed off and nothing to do but work. Five rounds at the APEX rewards the fighter with the better clock, not the better highlight.
02

The Fighters

Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage

Raul Rosas Jr. controlling an opponent from top position on the canvas

Raul Rosas Jr.

Pro Record
12-1-0
UFC Record
6-1 across seven bouts since December 2022
Streak
Five straight — Mitchell, Turcios, Aoriqileng, Morales, Font
Finish Rate
67% (8 of 12 wins) — 6 submissions, 2 KO/TKO
Avg Fight Time
10:45
Chin · Never finished — one career loss, a decision, and no knockdown absorbed on recordSOS · Thin at the topFreestyle grappler — back-take chain

The prodigy's ceiling. Rosas turned professional in November 2021 at seventeen, submitted four straight opponents in Tijuana inside two rounds, won a Contender Series decision at 17 years 11 months to become the youngest signee in UFC history, and has now assembled six Octagon wins before his 22nd birthday. The arc is genuinely unprecedented — but strip out the mythology and the résumé is thin at the top: Rob Font, at 38 and 1-3 in his previous four before that night, is the only ranked opponent Rosas has ever shared a cage with. The rate line underneath is the most lopsided on this card. He leads the division at 6.10 takedowns per fifteen minutes against a 1.50 benchmark, ranks 14th of 79 at 0.87 submission attempts, and owns the highest control-time percentage in UFC bantamweight history at 56.9%. He also lands 1.34 significant strikes per minute — 115 in seven Octagon fights, against Barcelos's 918 in fifteen — which is 78th of 79. His 1.24 absorbed per minute is the third-lowest in the division and is positional rather than defensive: he is not hard to hit, he is simply rarely available to be hit.

Raoni Barcelos fighting Ricky Simón in the Octagon

Raoni Barcelos

Pro Record
22-5-0
UFC Record
11-4 across fifteen bouts since July 2018
Streak
Five straight — Quiñónez, Talbott, Garbrandt, Simón, Jackson
Finish Rate
50% (11 of 22 wins) — 8 KO/TKO, 3 submissions
Avg Fight Time
13:09
Chin · Good — one stoppage loss in twenty-seven professional fights, to Umar NurmagomedovSOS · EliteMuay Thai / clinch-heavy Nak Muay

The veteran's floor, and it is higher than anyone wants to admit. Barcelos took his first UFC fight at 31, and spent 2021 to 2023 going 1-3 against Valiev, Henry, Umar and Phillips — a stretch that had him looking like a released fighter. Then he reinvented himself as the division's boogeyman: Cristian Quiñónez by rear-naked choke, Payton Talbott — a 9-0 hype prospect — by 30-27, 30-27, 30-26 in the 2025 Upset of the Year, a former UFC champion in Cody Garbrandt, a top-15 wrestler in Ricky Simón who could not take him down, and Montel Jackson in April 2026 after being knocked down in the first round. Underneath it: 52% striking accuracy (19th of 79), 61% striking defence (11th of 79), a High pace tier at 5.5 strikes per engaged minute, a 1.30 career damage ratio, and 88% takedown defence that ranks 9th of 79 and rises round over round. He is a five-time Brazilian national freestyle wrestling champion, a two-time South American champion and a BJJ black belt under his own father, and he is the former RFA featherweight champion with two twenty-five-minute decision wins on file. Nobody in bantamweight wants this fight, which is precisely why the UFC gave it to the 21-year-old they are building.

Raul Rosas Jr.
0 dealt · 0 absorbed
Knockdown Exchange
KD dealt vs absorbed. A dash means that figure was not published.
Raoni Barcelos
0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Raul Rosas Jr.signature weapons

Rear-Naked Choke from Back ControlVelázquez (UWC 30, 1:01), Peñaloza (UWC 34, R2 2:25), Ricky Turcios (UFC, R2 2:22) — plus a neck crank on Jay Perrin from the same position at UFC 282
×3
First-Round ArmbarJoel Peña at 0:54 and Francisco Villanueva at 2:07, both inside the opening round on the Mexican regional circuit
×2
Ground-and-Pound from Dominant PositionAndrés Portocarrero at 2:11 and Terrence Mitchell at 0:54 — the Mitchell finish was literally punches from back control. Both career knockouts come from top or back, never from open space
×2

Raoni Barcelossignature weapons

Late-Round Knockout PunchesEight career knockouts; the Octagon example is Kurt Holobaugh at 1:29 of Round 3 on debut. All five of his UFC knockdowns landed in Rounds 2 and 3 — four in the second, one in the third
×8
Rear-Naked ChokeChris Gutiérrez at 4:12 of Round 2 and Cristian Quiñónez at 2:04 of Round 3 — and he had one locked on Montel Jackson at the horn in April 2026
×2
Guillotine off a Failed EntryThe third of his three submission wins, and the standard punishment available to a five-time national wrestling champion when a takedown-hunter shoots badly. He also finished Carlos Huachin with elbows from half guard at 4:49 of Round 2
×1

Raul Rosas Jr.

W
Rob Font
Decision — Unanimous (30-27 ×3), 16 takedowns

Opponent context: elite

RR3
UFC 326 — Mar 7, 2026
W
Vince Morales
Decision — Unanimous (29-28 ×3)

Opponent context: veteran

RR3
UFC FN: Moreno vs Erceg — Mar 29, 2025
W
Aoriqileng
Decision — Unanimous (29-28 ×3)

Opponent context: veteran

RR3
UFC 306: Noche UFC — Sep 14, 2024
W
Ricky Turcios
Submission — Rear-Naked Choke

Opponent context: veteran

RR2 (2:22)
UFC FN: Cannonier vs Imavov — Jun 8, 2024
W
Terrence Mitchell
KO/TKO — punches from back control

Opponent context: prospect

RR1 (0:54)
UFC FN: Grasso vs Shevchenko 2 — Sep 16, 2023
Pattern

Five straight, but the shape has changed completely. The two most recent finishes came in 2023 and 2024; the last three wins are all decisions, all narrow on the cards except Font, and all built on control time rather than damage. The Font performance is the outlier and the reason he is headlining — sixteen takedowns in fifteen minutes, a 30-27 sweep, and Rosas admitting afterwards that he abandoned the knockout hunt because the takedowns were coming too easily. Against a 38-year-old boxer with no takedown defence, that plan was free. It has never once been tested against a fighter who can stop the shot. His only career loss, Christian Rodriguez by unanimous decision at UFC 287 in April 2023, sits one fight outside this window and is the single most instructive bout on his ledger.

Raoni Barcelos

W
Montel Jackson
Decision — Split (29-28, 28-29, 29-28), dropped in R1

Opponent context: elite

RR3
UFC Vegas 116 — Apr 25, 2026
W
Ricky Simón
Decision — Unanimous (29-28 ×3)

Opponent context: elite

RR3
UFC FN: Bonfim vs Brown — Nov 8, 2025
W
Cody Garbrandt
Decision — Unanimous (29-28 ×3)

Opponent context: elite

RR3
UFC on ESPN: Usman vs Buckley — Jun 14, 2025
W
Payton Talbott
Decision — Unanimous (30-27, 30-27, 30-26)

Opponent context: prospect

RR3
UFC 311 — Jan 18, 2025
W
Cristian Quiñónez
Submission — Rear-Naked Choke

Opponent context: veteran

RR3 (2:04)
UFC FN: Moreno vs Royval 2 — Feb 24, 2024
Pattern

The most under-priced five-fight run in the division. Payton Talbott was 9-0 and being fast-tracked; Barcelos won 30-27, 30-27, 30-26. Garbrandt is a former UFC champion. Ricky Simón is a top-15 wrestler who could not take him down. And the Jackson fight is the direct rehearsal for this one: Jackson dropped him with a head kick in Round 1 and swarmed on the mat, Barcelos grappled his way out from underneath, fully mounted Jackson in Round 2, took his back and had a rear-naked choke locked at the horn, then controlled Round 3 in the clinch — six takedowns on eighteen attempts and 7:45 of control against a legitimate athlete, at 38 years old. The most recent evidence we have of Barcelos in a crisis is him getting up, reversing position, mounting and hunting a choke. Rosas's entire gameplan is to put him on his back.

Raul Rosas Jr.

Win Methods
Wins by Round

Raoni Barcelos

Win Methods
Wins by Round
Critical Insight
The donuts are career scope and they close exactly — Rosas 2 KO + 6 Sub + 4 Dec = 12 wins against a 12-1-0 record, Barcelos 8 KO + 3 Sub + 11 Dec = 22 wins against 22-5-0. The round bars underneath are scoped to Octagon wins only, because five of Barcelos's twenty-two career finishes have no published round; at that scope Rosas reads 2 first-round finishes, 1 second and 3 decisions from six wins, and Barcelos reads 2 second-round finishes, 2 thirds and 7 decisions from eleven. Read the two tables together and the age narrative inverts. The 21-year-old is the submission-and-control fighter — six submissions, half his wins, on 1.34 significant strikes per minute — and the 39-year-old is the high-volume striker with the knockout power, eight KOs and five Octagon knockdowns. Rosas owns six career first-round finishes and zero in a third; every UFC finish Barcelos owns landed in Round 2 or Round 3. In a three-round fight those windows overlap enough to make it competitive. In a five-round fight, minutes 15:00 through 25:00 are territory Rosas has literally never visited and Barcelos has visited twice and won both times.

Common Opponents

OpponentRaulRaoni
Proxy comparison — the wrestler test (not a shared opponent)L· UD3 to Christian Rodriguez (UFC 287, Apr 2023) — the only man to stuff his entriesW· UD3 over Ricky Simón (Nov 2025) and W · SD3 over Montel Jackson (Apr 2026)
The closest thing to a common data point: the one time Rosas met a fighter who could stop the shot he lost, and the two most recent times Barcelos met one he won — including from underneath, after a knockdown
03

The Numbers

Composites, division ranks and round-by-round evidence

Composite scores summarize selected statistics on a 0–100 scale. They are not win probabilities. Compare the underlying metrics, opponent quality and sample flags before interpreting a score difference as a matchup advantage.

Striking

SLpM 25% · StrAcc 30% · StrDef 30% · SApM 15%

0
Raul
0
Raoni

A twenty-two-point gap and the widest single-component separation in this analysis. Rosas: 1.34 landed per minute (78th of 79), 42% accuracy (44th), 53% defence (55th), 1.24 absorbed — the third-lowest in the division and the only component propping the score up, and it is positional rather than defensive. Barcelos: 4.65 (27th), 52% (19th), 61% (11th), 4.24 absorbed (62nd). He takes damage because he trades; that is the price of a High pace tier.

Grappling

TD/15 25% · TDAcc 25% · TDDef 30% · Sub/15 20%

0
Raulsmall sample
0
Raoni

Five points, and far narrower than the takedown numbers imply. Rosas leads the division at 6.10 takedowns per fifteen (component ~96) with roughly 39–50% accuracy and 0.87 submission attempts, and is held out of the high 70s only by a 25% takedown defence resting on a two-attempt denominator — flagged, because if that column were treated as unmeasured rather than bad this composite reads closer to 78. Barcelos: 2.51 takedowns per fifteen (21st of 79), roughly 32% accuracy, 0.68 submission attempts, and 88% takedown defence over 41 attempts.

Technical

(Striking + Grappling) / 2

0.0
Raul
0
Raoni

Thirteen and a half points, and Barcelos leads on both halves. The grappling gap is narrow and genuinely contestable; the striking gap is not. Rosas has the better offensive engine, Barcelos has the better defensive wall and the better counter-grappling — and volume is meaningless against a wall.

Cardio

Fight time · pace · R3/R1 output · champ rounds

0
Raulsmall sample
0
Raoni

Rosas has the best recovery profile in the sport at 21, and sixteen takedowns across three rounds against Font is real evidence of an improved engine — but his measured round curve falls off a cliff: output differential +3.8 → −2.5 → −3.7, control time 170s → 96s, takedown accuracy 45% → 29%, and zero career minutes past 15:00. Barcelos has a 13:09 average fight time, eleven of fifteen Octagon bouts to the horn, two prior twenty-five-minute wins, and documented late-round escalation at 161% R3-over-R1. The discount on him is real too: he is 39, and those championship fights were a decade ago at featherweight.

Overall

(Technical + Cardio) / 2

0.0
Raul
0.0
Raoni

Roughly thirteen points, which would ordinarily imply a much wider split than 57/43. We do not take the composites at face value for two specific reasons: Rosas's grappling composite is artificially suppressed by a takedown-defence figure resting on a two-attempt sample, and an eighteen-year age gap is not represented anywhere in a composite built from rate stats. Those two adjustments compress a 67-vs-54 gap into 57/43.

MetricRaulRaoni
Avg Fight Time10:4513:09
Pace TierMinimal — 1.34 SLpM (78th/79)High — 4.65 SLpM (27th/79), 5.5 per engaged minute
R3/R1 Output86% (6.3 vs 7.3 sig)161% (26.1 vs 16.3 sig)
Slow Start %R1 is his best round — +3.8 differential, 45% TD accuracy, 2:50 control66.7% slow-start rate — R1 differential −4.9
Champ RoundsNone — zero career minutes past 15:00small sampleTwo 25-minute wins — RFA 29 (2015), RFA 39 (2016)

Archetype Base Rate

Freestyle Grappler / Takedown-Volume Control 43%57% Muay Thai Fighter / Clinch-Heavy Nak Muay

No archetype base-rate row exists for this pairing · No historical archetype win-rate is applied here. The 57/43 line is the editorial assessment's own figure, arrived at by compressing a thirteen-point composite gap for two named reasons — Rosas's takedown-defence column rests on a two-attempt denominator, and an eighteen-year age gap across twenty-five unmeasured championship minutes is not captured by any rate stat.

Raul Rosas Jr.Raoni Barcelos

Bantamweight

· 79 fighters
StatRaulRaul rankDiv avgRaoni rankRaoni
SLpM1.34
78/79
4.41
27/79
4.65
Str Acc42%
44/79
47.2%
19/79
52%
Str Def53%
55/79
54.2%
11/79
61%
SApM1.24
3/79
3.95
62/79
4.24
KD Avg0.17
48/79
0.54
34/79
0.38
Damage RatioNot published — insufficient sample—~1.20—1.30
TD/156.10
1/79elite
1.50
21/79
2.51
TD Acc54%—32.9%—32%
TD Def25%—67.5%
9/79elite
88%
Sub/150.87
14/79
0.51
27/79
0.68
Avg Fight Time10:45———13:09
Statistical Verdict
Every early-minutes, positional-control and youth marker in this table belongs to Rosas: the division's leading takedown rate at four times benchmark, 14th of 79 in submission attempts, and a 56.9% control-time rate that is the highest in UFC bantamweight history. Every striking, late-round, durability and distance marker belongs to Barcelos — 27th in output, 19th in accuracy, 11th in defence, a 1.30 damage ratio and a 2.50 knockdown exchange ratio. And the one number that decides whether Rosas's markers ever get to apply, takedown defence, reads 88% against him over a 41-attempt sample that includes a top-15 wrestler. The clean summary: Rosas wins the fight in which he lands takedowns at will; Barcelos wins every other version, and there are more of them.

Significant Strikes Landed per Round

Control Time per Round (sec)

Raul Rosas Jr.

  • Front-loaded, then flat. He lands 7.3 significant strikes at 55% accuracy in an average first round, 6.0 at 33% in a second and 6.3 at 42% in a third — and his control time falls from 170 seconds to 96 across the same span.
  • The takedown engine decays with it: 45% accuracy in Round 1 (9 of 20) drops to 29% in Round 2 (4 of 14). The volume is real; the duty cycle is short.
  • The defensive side is the alarm. Opponents land 3.5 significant strikes on him in an average first round and 10.0 in a third, with their accuracy climbing 36% → 49% → 58%. His landed-minus-absorbed differential runs +3.8, −2.5, −3.7.
  • Rows for the fourth and fifth rounds are blank because no data exists. Across seven Octagon bouts and a full professional career he has never fought past 15:00 at any level.

Raoni Barcelos

  • A documented late starter who becomes the better fighter. 16.1 significant strikes in an average first round becomes 28.4 at 55% accuracy in a second — his best round on record — and holds at 27.5 in a third. His differential runs −4.9, +8.5, +4.9.
  • His takedown defence improves as the fight goes: 87% in Round 1 (2 of 15 allowed), 86% in Round 2 (2 of 14), 92% in Round 3 (1 of 12), across a 41-attempt sample from fourteen bouts.
  • All five of his UFC knockdowns arrived in Rounds 2 and 3 — four in the second, one in the third. He does not detonate early; he detonates once he has read you. His submission attempts peak in the same window, 44% of his career total in Round 2.
  • His fourth and fifth rounds are blank here too: the only twenty-five-minute fights he owns are RFA 29 in 2015 and RFA 39 in 2016, a decade before this round data begins.
Critical Insight
This is the whole fight in two lines. Rosas's landed-minus-absorbed differential by round runs +3.8 → −2.5 → −3.7. Barcelos's runs −4.9 → +8.5 → +4.9. One curve falls off a cliff after five minutes; the other climbs out of a hole and stays there. Rosas's control time also declines from 170 seconds in Round 1 to 96 in Round 2, and his takedown accuracy falls from 45% to 29% across the same rounds. Meanwhile Barcelos's takedown defence across a 41-attempt sample rises round over round — 87%, 86%, 92% — and every knockdown he has landed in the UFC came in Round 2 or Round 3. Now add Rounds 4 and 5 to that picture.

Strike targeting (available rounds)

Raul

Head
66%
Body
11%
Legs
23%

Head hunting vs body work vs leg attack — the shape of the damage. Unavailable strike-target figures are omitted rather than shown as 0%.

Striking range — distance, clinch and ground

RaulRaoni
63%Distance74%
1%Clinch7%
36%Ground19%

Approximate share of significant strikes by range in available rounds, weighted by strike volume. Incomplete splits are excluded. Debutants / fighters without Octagon samples show as N/A.

04

The Story of the Fight

Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath

Where the fight lives

Who owns each phase — and by how much
Open SpaceRaoni owns it

4.65 SLpM at 52% accuracy with 74.2% of it landed at distance, against 1.34 SLpM (78th of 79) and 42% accuracy

Pocket / ExchangesRaoni owns it

KD 0.38 and a 2.50 knockdown exchange ratio against KD 0.17 and two career knockouts, both from dominant position rather than open space

ClinchRaoni owns it

85.5% clinch accuracy and a freestyle-wrestling base against a fighter who lands 1% of his significant strikes in the clinch — though it is also where Rosas's body-lock entries live

GroundRaul owns it

56.9% career control rate (a UFC bantamweight record) and 0.87 submission attempts per fifteen — into a BJJ black belt with 88% takedown defence and 0.68 of his own

Path to Victory

Raul Rosas Jr.

Land takedowns at will, early and often. His entire measured advantage lives in Round 1 — +3.8 differential, 45% takedown accuracy, 2:50 of control — against a documented slow starter, and every conversion is worth a round on the cards.

Why they win
01
Division-leading takedown volume

6.10 takedowns per fifteen minutes, roughly four times the 1.50 bantamweight benchmark. Even against an 88% wall, twenty-plus attempts across twenty-five minutes should convert two to four times — and each conversion is worth a round.

02
The highest control-time rate in bantamweight history

56.9% of his cage time spent in control position, a UFC bantamweight record. At the APEX, in front of judges who reward control, that is a scoring system rather than a stat.

03
Eighteen years

He is 21; Barcelos is 39 with twenty-seven professional fights and fifteen Octagon bouts of mileage on him. Championship rounds punish the older man far more often than they punish the younger one.

04
Back-take specialisation

0.87 submission attempts per fifteen (14th of 79), six career submissions, and three of his last five finishes from back control. If Barcelos turns away from a scramble even once in twenty-five minutes, this fight ends.

05
Nobody has ever finished him

One career loss, by decision, and no knockdown absorbed worth noting across seven Octagon bouts. Whatever else happens, he is very likely to still be there in Round 5 — and the Rob Font performance, sixteen takedowns and a 30-27 sweep, is the best single night either man has produced in twelve months.

The gameplan
  1. 1
    Open fast

    His entire measured advantage lives in Round 1 — +3.8 differential, 45% takedown accuracy, 2:50 of control — and Barcelos's worst round is Round 1 at −4.9. Score early and score often; if he does not clearly win the first round, the shape of the remaining four gets very ugly.

  2. 2
    Chain entries off the southpaw stance

    Lead-leg singles and body-lock trips against an orthodox opponent, rather than telegraphed doubles into a five-time national wrestling champion's hips.

  3. 3
    Prioritise back-takes over top control

    Barcelos's guard is a black-belt's guard and he finished Carlos Huachin with elbows from half guard. Rosas's six career submissions live on the back, not in the pocket of a bottom-position exchange.

  4. 4
    Never stand and trade

    At 1.34 significant strikes per minute against 4.65, every neutral exchange is a donated round. Threaten the shot constantly even when not committing, purely to suppress Barcelos's volume.

  5. 5
    Ration the gas for Rounds 4 and 5

    He has never been there, and a 21-year-old's recovery only helps if he has not emptied the tank chasing minute-one takedowns. If entries are not landing by the end of Round 2, stop shooting from open space and wrestle in the clinch off the fence.

Path to Victory

Raoni Barcelos

Stuff the first three entries and make the fourth expensive. 88% takedown defence over 41 attempts that rises to 92% by the third round, against a man whose only other tool lands 1.34 significant strikes per minute.

Why they win
01
88% takedown defence, and it rises

Ninth of 79 over a 41-attempt sample — five takedowns allowed on forty-one — and it improves by round: 87%, 86%, 92%. This is the direct, measured antidote to the only weapon Rosas owns.

02
A three-and-a-half-times volume advantage

4.65 significant strikes per minute against 1.34, and 918 landed in fifteen Octagon fights against 115 in seven. Every minute this fight spends standing is a minute Rosas loses on the cards by a wide margin.

03
Documented late-round escalation

Third-round output at 161% of first-round output, a Strong Finisher label, four of five UFC knockdowns in Round 2 and every Octagon finish in Rounds 2 or 3. Five rounds is a gift to this specific profile.

04
The only twenty-five-minute experience in the cage

Two RFA championship fights, both decision wins as featherweight champion, plus the longer average fight time at 13:09 and eleven of fifteen Octagon bouts going the full distance.

05
Counter-grappling that punishes bad entries

0.68 submission attempts per fifteen, two rear-naked chokes and a guillotine, 44% of his submission attempts in Round 2 — and the freshest tape in the sport of him mounting and back-taking a wrestler who had just dropped him. Against Talbott, Garbrandt, Simón, Jackson, Umar and Phillips, his schedule tier reads Elite; Rosas's best win is a 38-year-old Rob Font.

The gameplan
  1. 1
    Defend the first three entries and make the fourth expensive

    Sprawl, front headlock, threaten the guillotine. His 87–92% takedown defence is the whole fight, and every stuffed shot drains a 21-year-old's legs.

  2. 2
    Do not start cold

    His single largest structural flaw is a 66.7% slow-start rate; against a control grappler, giving away Round 1 in a five-rounder is expensive. Establish the jab and the calf kick inside the first ninety seconds.

  3. 3
    Live in the clinch on the fence

    He lands 85.5% of his clinch strikes; Rosas lands 1% of his significant strikes from the clinch. That phase is a free scoring zone in the smallest cage the UFC uses.

  4. 4
    Build volume from Round 2 and hunt the knockdown

    His four Round-2 Octagon knockdowns are not an accident — they come after he has read the timing. Output climbs 161% from Round 1 to Round 3 and now has two more rounds to climb into.

  5. 5
    Take it to deep water and trust the cards

    Eleven decision wins, eleven of fifteen Octagon bouts to the horn, two twenty-five-minute wins already on file. He does not need a finish; he needs three of five rounds. If he is taken down in Rounds 1–2 he must attack from the bottom exactly as he did against Montel Jackson — hips, reversals, back-takes — because passive bottom minutes against a 56.9%-control fighter is how a 48-47 becomes a 50-45.

Danger Zone

How Raul Rosas Jr. loses

  • The Christian Rodriguez template at five-round length. Barcelos stuffs the first four entries, Rosas's takedown accuracy collapses from 45% to under 30%, and from Round 3 onward he is the one getting taken down and hit — Rodriguez landed 23 of 40 significant strikes, 20 of 25 of them from the ground, in exactly that scenario while Rosas answered with 2 of 15.

  • He shoots into a front headlock in a championship round. Fatigued level changes against a BJJ black belt with two rear-naked choke finishes and a guillotine finish end one way.

  • He wins Rounds 1 and 2, then discovers what minute sixteen feels like. Barcelos banks 3, 4 and 5 on volume and takes a 48-47 that Rosas will spend a year arguing about.

Danger Zone

How Raoni Barcelos loses

  • He starts cold — as he does 66.7% of the time — and loses the first two rounds to control time before his engine warms up. In a five-round fight that means needing a finish or a sweep of the championship rounds against a 21-year-old.

  • Thirty-nine catches up with him in Round 4. Rosas's youth turns a 2-2 fight into a back-take and a rear-naked choke he cannot spin out of at that stage.

  • He gets caught in a scramble on the way to the wall. His three defensive lapses in fifteen Octagon fights all came in the first round, and a knockdown-then-takedown sequence early — the Montel Jackson opening — is worse over twenty-five minutes than over fifteen, because Rosas would then have four rounds to sit on him.

The fight's central axis

The One-Lever Problem

Fighters with a single dominant weapon win a lot of fights and lose in exactly one way: against the opponent who neutralises the weapon. Rosas's lever is enormous — 6.10 takedowns per fifteen minutes, the division's best, and a 56.9% control rate that is the best in bantamweight history. But strip the takedown out and what remains is 1.34 significant strikes per minute, 42% accuracy, 53% defence and a 0.17 knockdown average. That is not a fallback; that is nothing. Barcelos has three functioning phases: 4.65 per minute at distance with 52% accuracy, an 85.5%-accuracy clinch, and 2.51 takedowns per fifteen of his own offence. The asymmetry is not who is better — it is who has a second answer when the first one stops working, over twenty-five minutes.

78th of 79
Rosas SLpM rank among listed UFC bantamweights
The only night Rosas has lost

The Christian Rodriguez Blueprint, Extended

April 8, 2023 is the only loss on the ledger and the round data explains it precisely. Round 1: Rosas goes 3 of 8 on takedowns with 4:02 of control and looks like he will run away with it. Round 2: 0 of 5 on takedowns, 0 of 4 on strikes, forty-eight seconds of control — the wall goes up. Round 3: Rodriguez takes him down, lands 23 of 40 significant strikes with 20 of 25 from the ground, and Rosas answers with 2 of 15. The pattern is stop the early shots, watch the accuracy collapse, then take over. Barcelos's takedown defence is not comparable to Rodriguez's — it is dramatically better, at 88% over 41 attempts against a far harder schedule. And where Rodriguez had three rounds to execute this, Barcelos has five.

23 of 40
strikes Rodriguez landed in the round he took over
Why the market keeps getting him wrong

The Boogeyman Discount

There is a persistent bias against fighters like Barcelos: late thirties, no title arc, no highlight reel, a stretch of losses in the recent past. He was a live underdog against Payton Talbott and won 30-27, 30-27, 30-26. He was an underdog against Cody Garbrandt and swept the cards. He was an underdog against Ricky Simón and out-worked him. He has now beaten four consecutive fighters the promotion preferred to win, which is the cleanest possible definition of a boogeyman. The strength-of-schedule classification — tier Elite, with a 50% winning rate in elite-level fights — is not a flattering artefact; it is the correct description of a man whose last five opponents were all more marketable than he is. Rosas is the fifth.

4
consecutive promoted fighters beaten as the underdog
When the prior and the measurement disagree

Age Eighteen Years Apart, at Both Extremes

Eighteen years is the largest age gap on this card and one of the largest in a recent UFC main event, and both ends of it are unusual. Rosas is 21 and headlining — the youngest ranked fighter in the promotion, in his eighth Octagon appearance. Barcelos is 39, a father-trained wrestler who started grappling at five and has been competing for thirty-four years. The naive read is that youth wins the championship rounds. The data pushes back: Barcelos's output rises into the late rounds at 161% R3-over-R1 and his takedown defence rises from 87% to 92%, while Rosas's output, control time and takedown accuracy all fall after Round 1. Age is a prior; the round-by-round curves are evidence. When a prior and a measurement disagree, take the measurement — but do not throw the prior away entirely. That tension is exactly why this sits at 57/43 and conviction 6, not 65/35 and conviction 8.

21 vs 39
the largest age gap on the card
Where the variance comes from

First Main Event, Both Men, No Shared History

They have never fought before — no rematch tape, no shared opponent of real significance, no prior read for either corner. It is also the first five-round bout of either man's UFC career and Rosas's first at any level. First main events are historically messy: pacing errors in Round 1, misjudged output in Round 3, and corners who have never had to give championship-round instructions to that fighter before. Variance in this bout is higher than the composites suggest, and it cuts toward the underdog — which is one of the reasons Rosas holds 43% rather than the mid-30s his technical score would imply.

The Five-Round Clock

Raul Rosas Jr. danger windowRaoni Barcelos danger windowNeutral / contested
R1 · 0:00–5:00The kid's round

Rosas's single best five minutes: +3.8 output differential, 45% takedown accuracy, an average of 2:50 in control — against a documented slow starter whose own first-round differential is −4.9 and who has been dropped in Round 1 three times in the Octagon. The counter-branch is real too: over-commit on a level change and Barcelos snaps down to the front headlock and the guillotine.

Critical Insight
Rosas's win equity is concentrated in minutes 0:00 to 15:00; Barcelos's is concentrated in minutes 5:00 to 25:00. In a three-round fight this is close to a coin flip. The extra ten minutes are worth roughly six percentage points to Barcelos in our model — the difference between a 51/49 lean and a 57/43 one. Ask the simple question: if this fight is level after three rounds, who do you want in Rounds 4 and 5? The fighter with a 13:09 average fight time, two prior twenty-five-minute wins and an output curve that rises — or the fighter who has never seen minute sixteen and whose measured output falls off from Round 1 onward.

Finish Threat by Round

Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.

05

The Verdict

One hundred simulated fights, the betting market, and our conviction

If you only read 3 things
1

The whole bout is one question with a measurable answer on both sides: 6.10 takedowns per fifteen minutes, the division's best, against 88% takedown defence over a 41-attempt sample that rises to 92% by the third round.

2

If the wall holds, Rosas has nothing else — 1.34 significant strikes per minute is 78th of 79 listed UFC bantamweights, against Barcelos's 4.65 at 52% accuracy and 61% defence.

3

Model: Barcelos 57% / Rosas Jr. 43%, conviction 6/10 — capped by an eighteen-year age gap across twenty-five minutes neither man has ever fought, and by a 39-year-old who was dropped in Round 1 five months ago.

Model outcomes per 100 fights

Each square represents one percentage point of the model distribution, not an observed fight. This visualization does not measure model accuracy or reduce uncertainty in the inputs.

Rosas Jr. Decision — 24%Rosas Jr. Submission — 13%Rosas Jr. KO/TKO — 6%Barcelos KO/TKO — 15%Barcelos Decision — 34%Barcelos Submission — 8%

Each square = 1 simulated fight. Raul Rosas Jr. gold · Raoni Barcelos orange · full color = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

Takedown conversion — the central variable

6.10 takedowns per fifteen minutes against 88% takedown defence, over roughly twenty to twenty-five attempts in twenty-five minutes. Rosas's volume was built against Font, Aoriqileng, Morales and Turcios; Barcelos's wall was built against fourteen UFC bantamweights including a top-15 wrestler. The question is only whether twenty-plus attempts convert three or four times, and whether three or four takedowns win five rounds.

The striking floor

1.34 significant strikes per minute against 4.65. This is not a stylistic quirk, it is a structural dependency: if Rosas is not on top, he is not scoring. Every round the wall holds is a round he loses on volume by a margin no judge can miss.

Round-curve divergence

Rosas runs +3.8, −2.5, −3.7 by round; Barcelos runs −4.9, +8.5, +4.9. One fighter front-loads and fades, the other is labelled a Strong Finisher with a 66.7% slow-start rate and third-round output at 161% of his first. Five rounds extends the better half of one curve and the worse half of the other.

Championship-round exposure

Rosas has zero career minutes past 15:00 at any level. Barcelos has two prior twenty-five-minute wins — but they came in 2015 and 2016 at featherweight, when he was 28 and 29, and neither man has ever contested a Round 4 in the UFC. Ten of the twenty-five minutes are projected rather than observed for both corners.

Counter-submission and late-stoppage equity

Barcelos carries 0.68 submission attempts per fifteen with two rear-naked chokes and a guillotine, 44% of them in Round 2, against a fighter who shoots twenty-plus times a fight — and a 0.38 knockdown average with all five Octagon knockdowns in Rounds 2 and 3, now handed two extra rounds. Rosas carries 0.87 submission attempts and six career finishes from the back, against a 39-year-old in minute twenty.

Fight Scripts

0%
of simulations

The Wall Holds

Barcelos stuffs the entries, wins the clinch at 85.5% accuracy, out-lands his opponent three-to-one across five rounds and takes a 49-46 or a 48-47. Eleven of fifteen Octagon bouts to the horn, eleven career decision wins, and 88% takedown defence across twenty-five minutes — this is simply what happens when the wall holds, and it is the single largest bucket on the page.

Scripted outcomes for Raul Rosas Jr. vs Raoni Barcelos — how each version of this fight unfolds.

Raul Rosas Jr. win probability
0%
6%
24%
13%
KO/TKODECSUB

  • Six points, and intentionally the smallest bucket on the page. Two career knockouts, both ground-and-pound from dominant position — the Terrence Mitchell finish was literally punches from back control — against a man with a Good chin tier, a 2.50 knockdown exchange ratio and one stoppage loss in twenty-seven professional fights.

  • Twenty-four points, and his primary path rather than his secondary one. The Font template — three to five takedowns, banked control time, a 49-46 — is genuinely live, and it is the version of this fight where a 56.9% control rate does the work in front of judges who reward it.

  • Thirteen points and his highest-value flier. 0.87 submission attempts per fifteen minutes, six career submissions, three of his last five finishes from back control, against a 39-year-old in minute twenty. If Barcelos's hips go, this ends in a choke.

Raoni Barcelos win probability
0%
15%
34%
8%
KO/TKODECSUB

  • Fifteen points, deliberately the largest finishing bucket in the fight. All five of his Octagon knockdowns landed in Rounds 2 and 3, his output climbs 161% from the first round to the third, and two extra championship rounds against a fighter who has never been there is exactly how late TKOs happen. The Umar tape proves Barcelos can be hurt — but Rosas, at 0.17 knockdowns and two career knockouts both from dominant position, is not the man to do it.

  • Thirty-four points, the single largest bucket on the page and the structural chalk. Eleven of fifteen Octagon bouts to the horn, eleven career decision wins, 4.65 significant strikes per minute against 1.34, and 88% takedown defence across five rounds. This is simply what happens when the wall holds.

  • Eight points, and not a throwaway. Twenty-plus takedown attempts from a fatiguing fighter against a BJJ black belt with two rear-naked choke finishes and a guillotine is a real, repeatable counter-grappling exposure — and 44% of his career submission attempts come in Round 2, exactly when Rosas's entries get sloppy.

Projected Scorecards

How the model scores each round
R1
Raul
R2
Raoni
R3
Raoni
R4
Raoni
R5
Raoni
49-46 Barcelos
Rosas banks the opening round on control, then the wall holds for twenty minutes
The most likely card in a fight that reaches them
48-47 Barcelos
Rosas takes two of the first three on control time before the championship rounds turn
The competitive version, and close behind
48-47 Rosas Jr.
Three or four converted takedowns, three banked rounds, and a survival grind in the deep water
His cleanest decision outcome

Model and price

Raul Rosas Jr.

Freshness unverified
Model win probability
43%
Fair decimal odds
2.33
Reference quote-180 (BetOnline)
Estimated EV
-33.1%
Edge vs no-vig market
-18.9 pp

Raoni Barcelos

Freshness unverified
Model win probability
57%
Fair decimal odds
1.75
Reference quote+153 (BetOnline)
Estimated EV
+44.2%
Edge vs no-vig market
+18.9 pp

EV uses the displayed price: probability × decimal odds − 1. Edge is a percentage-point difference from a proportionally de-vigged, same-book pair. A dash means that comparison is unavailable.

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Fair odds are the break-even price under this estimate, not a recommended entry price. Model uncertainty can erase a small edge.

What price would change the calculation? · Raul Rosas Jr.

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Required decimal price: 2.33 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

What price would change the calculation? · Raoni Barcelos

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Required decimal price: 1.76 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

Full prop table (0)Expand for odds, model %, implied % and analyst verdict per prop

No prop prices recorded in this analysis.

Original analyst price notes

These notes describe the original analysis and may refer to older prices.

Barcelos +153 (39.5% implied vs model 57%) is the largest moneyline overlay on this card. Barcelos by decision at 34% remains the structural chalk; Rosas by submission at 13% is the standout flier if the favourite's hips go in championship rounds. Fade Rosas Jr. -180: the market prices a 64% favourite against a 43% model share. Our model puts the fight going the distance at 58% and inside the distance at 42%, with the round-by-round finish spread reading 7% in Round 1, 9% in Round 2, 10% in Round 3, 8% in Round 4 and 8% in Round 5.

Conviction
0
6/10

Editorial confidence in the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

A real, structurally-grounded lean. The best takedown-defence wall in the matchup is measured over 41 attempts and rises by round, while the challenger to it has the second-lowest striking output in a 79-man division and has never fought past fifteen minutes. Capped at 6 rather than 8 because an eighteen-year age gap over twenty-five unmeasured championship minutes is the one variable no rate stat captures, and because Barcelos was dropped in Round 1 as recently as April. Lean: Raoni Barcelos.

What backs the lean

  • 88% takedown defence over 41 attempts, 9th of 79 in the division, and it improves by round: 87%, 86%, 92%.

  • 4.65 significant strikes per minute against 1.34 — a three-and-a-half-times volume gap that decides every minute this fight spends upright.

  • Documented late-round escalation: third-round output at 161% of the first, a Strong Finisher label, and all five Octagon knockdowns and every Octagon finish in Rounds 2 and 3.

  • The only twenty-five-minute experience in the cage — two RFA championship decision wins — plus the longer average fight time at 13:09.

  • Elite strength of schedule: Talbott, Garbrandt, Simón and Jackson beaten consecutively, against Rosas's single ranked opponent.

  • Counter-grappling that punishes the exact thing Rosas must do: 0.68 submission attempts per fifteen, two rear-naked chokes and a guillotine, 44% of attempts in Round 2, and April 2026 tape of him mounting and back-taking a wrestler after being knocked down.

What limits it

  • 6.10 takedowns per fifteen minutes is division-leading and roughly four times benchmark — even 88% defence leaks two to four takedowns across twenty-five minutes, and each one is a round.

  • The highest control-time percentage in UFC bantamweight history at 56.9%, in the APEX, in front of judges who reward it.

  • Eighteen years younger. Barcelos is 39 with twenty-seven professional fights of mileage, and championship rounds have ended better fighters than him for exactly that reason.

  • Six career submissions and a back-take library — the single fastest way this fight ends against a tiring veteran.

  • Rosas has never been finished, and his form line is genuinely ascending: the sixteen-takedown, 30-27 dismantling of Rob Font is the best performance either man has produced in the last twelve months.

  • First five-round fight for both and first main event for both — variance is elevated, and variance favours the underdog.

Final Assessment

In roughly 57 of 100 simulations, Raoni Barcelos's takedown defence holds and the fight becomes an accumulation problem Raul Rosas Jr. cannot solve. Most often that ends on the cards at 34% — Barcelos stuffing entries, winning the clinch at 85.5% accuracy, out-landing his opponent three-to-one across five rounds and taking a 49-46 or a 48-47. Sometimes it ends violently in the back half at 15%, because every knockdown he has landed in the UFC came in Round 2 or Round 3 and this is the first time he has been handed two extra rounds to use them. And sometimes a tired, telegraphed level change in minute fourteen puts his neck in a guillotine or hands Barcelos the back at 8% — the same sequence he ran on Montel Jackson five months ago.

In the other 43, El Niño Problema does to Barcelos what he did to Rob Font, only over ten more minutes. Most often that is a decision at 24%, built on three to five converted takedowns and the highest control-time rate bantamweight has ever produced. A meaningful slice is a submission at 13% — a 21-year-old with six career finishes taking the back of a 39-year-old whose hips have given out in Round 4 or 5. A small slice is ground-and-pound from a dominant position at 6%, the only way he has ever knocked anybody out.

The data gives Barcelos the wall, the volume, the late rounds, the schedule and the only twenty-five-minute experience in the building; it gives Rosas the takedown engine, the control-time record, the submission threat and eighteen years. Confidence on the inputs is high — both men carry complete UFC aggregate lines, verified fight logs and full round-by-round splits — and medium on the projection, because neither has ever contested a Round 4, Rosas's takedown-defence figure rests on a two-attempt denominator, and no rate stat measures an eighteen-year age gap across championship rounds. On September 26 at the Meta APEX in Las Vegas, we take the boogeyman — and we take Rosas by submission as the live dog play, because the one thing a 39-year-old cannot buy back in the championship rounds is his hips.

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