Santos vs Belgaroui: Noche UFC Prediction — Gastelum Out, Model 64/36

PRELIM · MIDDLEWEIGHT · 3 ROUNDSUFC Fight Night: Silva vs. Delgado

Djorden Santos

“Shakur”

11W3L

Volume Pocket Boxer

Yousri Belgaroui

“Baby Face Assassin”

10W3L

Range Kickboxer

Short-notice volume against six inches and a chin nobody has broken

MiddleweightDesert Diamond Arena, Glendale, Arizona, United StatesSeptember 12, 2026Standard 30ft Octagon · Noche UFC

Fight overview

The fight in 30 seconds

Belgaroui's height and accurate striking favour a fight at long range; Santos's higher output requires him to close that distance. Santos needs to enter behind combinations and keep exchanges going, while Belgaroui can look to intercept the entry and reset before being crowded.

Paths that change the fight

Djorden SantosClose four inches of reach, turn it into a fifteen-minute pocket war, and out-land a cleaner striker the way he out-landed Barlow — without fading into the choke that ended the Susurkaev fight.
Yousri BelgarouiRefuse to negotiate the distance. Chop the 41" base for ten minutes, then move targeting to the head and let Round 3 do what it has done to three straight Zuffa opponents.

What limits this estimate · Analyst conviction: 5/10

Santos's volume is real: 6.64 SLpM and a 99-93 win over Danny Barlow. This is not Gastelum's 3.65 output.
Three UFC fights is still a thin HIGH-MEDIUM sample; the late-fade interpretation remains uncertain and depends on a small sample.

Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

Djorden Santos

Freshness unverified

Model win probability: 36%
Fair odds: +178

Reference quote: +505 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds: 2.78

Yousri Belgaroui

Freshness unverified

Model win probability: 64%
Fair odds: -178

Reference quote: -700 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds: 1.56

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Sources and data limitations

Gastelum withdrew August 13, 2026; Santos is the short-notice replacement and fight ID 14104 is unchanged. This is a dual small-sample file. Santos is HIGH-MEDIUM: three UFC fights with published UFCStats rates (SLpM 6.64 · StrAcc 42% · StrDef 48% · SApM 6.35 · TD/15 0.51 · TDAcc 28% · TDDef 85% · Sub/15 0.00) and fight-by-fight strike totals where known (99-93 vs Barlow; 131-135 vs Diaz). The available UFC round sample is shown below with its observation counts. Composites are estimates flagged for the three-fight denominator. Belgaroui is LOW-MEDIUM: two UFC bouts, a single round-by-round row (the Bekoev debut), and a published aggregate whose denominator is about 52 minutes across four Zuffa appearances — two of which are Contender Series, not UFC. UFC.com still prints Belgaroui at 9-3-0 while its own method block shows 8 KO + 2 Dec = 10 wins; we display 10-3-0. Reach is listed at 75" (UFCStats); ESPN prints 75.5". Do not read either rate line as a finished veteran sample.

Model methodology

Read the evidence Inspect prices and assumptions

The Frame

What this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it

The Analyst's Take

Kelvin Gastelum withdrew on August 13, 2026. The bout is now Djorden "Shakur" Santos — a 29-year-old American Top Team pocket boxer, 11-3, UFC 1-2, coming off a Round-3 rear-naked-choke loss to Baisangur Susurkaev — against Yousri "Baby Face Assassin" Belgaroui, a 6'6" Glory kickboxer who has never been finished and whose two UFC wins are both Round-3 TKOs. The tape still belongs to Belgaroui: +6" height, +4" reach, +6" leg reach, 64% accuracy against 42%, and 2.17 significant strikes absorbed per minute against Santos's 6.35. Santos's volume is real (6.64 SLpM, 99-93 over Danny Barlow), but he just got submitted late, this is short notice, and he walks into a man who lands clean from a distance Santos's hands barely reach. We land Belgaroui 64% / Santos 36%, conviction 5/10, with the modal outcome a decision (~50%) because Belgaroui has never been stopped and Santos has not finished anyone in the UFC.

Djorden Santos

Attribute

Yousri Belgaroui

29 (DOB Aug 1, 1997)+5 years Santos

Age

6'0" (72")

Height

+6" Belgaroui6'6" (78")

75" (ESPN 75.5")

Reach

+4" Belgaroui79"

41"

Leg Reach

+6" Belgaroui47"

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

American Top Team, Belo Horizonte / Florida

Team

Teixeira MMA & Fitness, Bethel, CT

Mar 8, 2025 — 3 UFC bouts (1-2)

Octagon Debut

Oct 18, 2025 — 2 UFC bouts (2-0)

Short-notice — Gastelum withdrew Aug 13, 2026

Notice

Original booking

High-volume pocket boxing, late-round fade

Fighting Style

Long-range technical kickboxing, clinch knees

The gap is smaller than the Gastelum booking it replaced, and it is still decisive. Belgaroui is six inches taller, four inches longer in the arms, and six inches longer in the legs. Santos is a 6'0" orthodox pocket boxer who lives in exchanges; Belgaroui is a 6'6" Glory kickboxer who wins those exchanges from a distance Santos has to travel. Age favours Santos (29 against 34), and the 75" reach is not short for middleweight — it is simply four inches shorter than the man across from him. The column that actually decides minutes is defense: Santos absorbs 6.35 significant strikes per minute at 48% strike defense; Belgaroui absorbs 2.17 at 64%. Volume without a guard is how you get hunted in Round 3.

Venue Factor
Desert Diamond Arena on Noche UFC weekend is a Mexican-American crowd, not a Brazilian one, and it will not shorten 79 inches. Santos's entire live path requires him to close that gap, stay in the pocket, and out-land a cleaner striker for fifteen minutes on short notice — four months after being submitted at 4:12 of Round 3. A 30-foot cage gives Belgaroui room to kick; it gives Santos a longer walk to the fight he wants.

The Fighters

Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage

Djorden Santos

Pro Record

11-3-0

UFC Record

1-2 across 3 Octagon bouts since March 2025

Streak

Lost his last — submitted by Baisangur Susurkaev (RNC, R3 4:12) at UFC 328

Finish Rate

64% career (7 of 11 wins) — 0 finishes in the UFC (lone win a UD)

Avg Fight Time

14:44 (UFC-only: 44:12 across 3 bouts)

Chin · Hittable, not broken — 0 KO losses; 1 late submission (Susurkaev R3)SOS · Developing UFCHigh-volume pocket boxer

A volume boxer who has already been asked the late-round question and failed it. Santos turned over a DWCS unanimous decision against Will Currie in September 2024, then dropped a close UFC debut to Ozzy Diaz (131-135 significant strikes) at UFC 313, then out-landed Danny Barlow 99-93 for his first Octagon win on the same October 2025 Fight Night card where Belgaroui stopped Azamat Bekoev. The last outing is the one that frames this booking: rear-naked choke, 4:12 of Round 3, UFC 328, May 9, 2026. Career finishing is real on the regional ledger — 3 KO, 4 submissions (arm-triangle twice, guillotine, rear-naked choke) — but it has not followed him into the UFC. He is the short-notice replacement for Kelvin Gastelum, who withdrew August 13. Nickname Shakur. American Top Team. Belo Horizonte.

Yousri Belgaroui

Pro Record

10-3-0

UFC Record

2-0 — both by third-round TKO

Streak

Five straight wins since August 2023, four of them stoppages

Finish Rate

80% career (8 of 10 wins) · 100% of his UFC wins

Avg Fight Time

13:02 (denominator includes 2 Contender Series bouts)

Chin · Iron — never finished and never knocked down in 13 pro fightsSOS · Strong but shallowTechnical Striker / Outside Fighter

Belgaroui's curve still runs up. A Contender Series decision loss to Marco Tulio in 2023, then five straight wins, then two UFC opponents stopped in the third round. Before any of it, a decade at 185 pounds in Glory: 27-7 as a kickboxer, winner of the 2017 Glory Middleweight Contender Tournament and a three-time world title challenger, including a night against Alex Pereira. His MMA path reads UAE Warriors and Levels Fight League, then a DWCS loss, then a DWCS win, then a UFC contract — and his two Octagon scalps are legitimate step-ups, because Azamat Bekoev was a physically imposing debutant and Mansur Abdul-Malik entered undefeated and highly regarded. What he does not have is depth: zero elite-tier MMA opponents, zero submission wins, zero recorded submission attempts, and an Octagon body of work that is under 26 minutes long.

Djorden Santos

0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Knockdown Exchange

Knockdowns dealt vs absorbed.

Yousri Belgaroui

0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Djorden Santossignature weapons

High-Volume Pocket BoxingDanny Barlow, UD, 99-93 significant strikes (Oct 2025) — 6.64 SLpM is real output, paid for with 6.35 SApM

×1

Arm-TriangleTwo of four career submissions; UFC Sub/15 is 0.00 — regional weapon, not an Octagon rate

×2

Guillotine / Rear-Naked ChokeThe other two career submissions; he was himself submitted by RNC at 4:12 of Round 3 in his last fight

×2

Yousri Belgarouisignature weapons

Clinch KneeMansur Abdul-Malik (R3 3:39), Giorgi Kvelidze (R1 4:59), Stefan Pretorius (R2 0:43) — clinch accuracy reads 94.6% and his clinch share climbs from 1.7% in R1 to 10.9% in R3

×3

Round-Three Punch BarrageAzamat Bekoev (R3 0:55) and Taiga Iwasaki (R3 2:34) — head targeting climbs from 47.5% in Round 1 to 80.0% in Round 3

×2

Body PunchBogdan Kotlovyanov, KO at 1:50 of Round 1 — 22.0% of his Round-1 output goes to the body before the head work starts

×1

Djorden Santos

Baisangur Susurkaev

Submission — Rear-naked choke

Opponent context: prospect

R3 (4:12)

UFC 328 — May 9, 2026

Danny Barlow

Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: prospect

UFC FN: De Ridder vs. Allen — Oct 18, 2025

Ozzy Diaz

Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: prospect

UFC 313 — Mar 8, 2025 (UFC debut)

Will Currie

Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: prospect

DWCS — Sep 3, 2024

Pattern

One win in three UFC fights, both Octagon losses going the distance or late, and the most recent of them a Round-3 choke. The Barlow night is the live path: 99 significant strikes to 93, a fifteen-minute volume win on the same card Belgaroui debuted. The Diaz night is the warning: 131-135, out-landed in a phone-booth fight he was supposed to win with output. The Susurkaev night is the ceiling: he was still there at 14:12 and then he was not. Short-notice against a 6'6" kickboxer is a harder ask than any of those three.

Yousri Belgaroui

Mansur Abdul-Malik

TKO — Knee

Opponent context: prospect

R3 (3:39)

UFC FN: Adesanya vs. Pyfer — Mar 28, 2026

Azamat Bekoev

TKO — Punches

Opponent context: prospect

R3 (0:55)

UFC FN: de Ridder vs. Allen — Oct 18, 2025 (UFC debut)

Taiga Iwasaki

TKO — Punches

Opponent context: prospect

R3 (2:34)

Contender Series 71 — Sep 10, 2024

Ahmed Sami

Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: prospect

Levels Fight League 11 — Feb 18, 2024 (LHW title)

Giorgi Kvelidze

TKO — Knee/Punches

Opponent context: prospect

R1 (4:59)

Levels Fight League 10 — Oct 29, 2023

Pattern

Five straight wins since the Marco Tulio decision loss on the Contender Series in August 2023, four of them by stoppage, three of them in Round 3. The Ahmed Sami bout matters more than its promotion suggests — it is a five-round championship win, meaning he has already proven he can operate for twenty-five minutes and take a decision when the finish does not arrive. His two UFC scalps are real step-ups: Bekoev was a physically imposing debutant and Abdul-Malik entered undefeated. Three consecutive Zuffa wins by third-round TKO is not a coincidence; it is the shape of his game.

Djorden Santos

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Yousri Belgaroui

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Critical Insight
Santos's donut is career arithmetic — 3 KO / 4 Sub / 4 Dec = 11 — while the round bars chart only the wins whose finishing round is actually published. All four decision wins are charted; the seven finishes (arm-triangle twice, guillotine, rear-naked choke, plus three knockouts) are left uncharted rather than estimated. Read that against the UFC sample and the picture flips: his lone Octagon win is a unanimous decision, and he has zero UFC finishes. Belgaroui remains 8 KO / 0 Sub / 2 Dec = 10, with both UFC wins third-round TKOs. He has never been finished; Santos's only finish loss is a late rear-naked choke. Belgaroui has never attempted a UFC submission. The mechanical result is a decision-heavy projection (~50%) with Belgaroui's TKO as the largest finish bucket (~28%).

Common Opponents

Opponent	Djorden	Yousri
Same-card proxy — Oct 18, 2025 (De Ridder vs. Allen)	W· UD vs Danny Barlow (99-93 strikes)	W· TKO R3 0:55 vs Azamat Bekoev (102-24 strikes)
They debuted their current UFC arcs on the same Fight Night. Santos won a volume decision; Belgaroui stopped a physically imposing debutant after eating four takedowns. Different opponents, same night, two very different finishing textures.

Djordenfew UFC fights

0.0

Yousrifew UFC fights

A coherent lean to Belgaroui — driven by accuracy, absorption, length and late-round pattern, restrained by two-fight and three-fight Octagon samples and by Santos's real volume.

Metric	Djorden	Yousri
Avg Fight TimeAvg Fight TimeAverage fight duration — long averages mark proven cardio and decision-ready grinders.	14:44 (UFC-only, 3 bouts)few UFC fights	13:02 (incl. 2 DWCS bouts)few UFC fights
Pace Tier	High — 6.64 SLpM, 6.35 SApMfew UFC fights	High — 6.10 SLpM, 2.17 SApMfew UFC fights
Late-round evidence	Submitted R3 4:12 (Susurkaev); 131-135 vs Diazfew UFC fights	93% R3/R1 retention; 3 straight Zuffa R3 TKOsfew UFC fights
UFC finishes	0 in 3 fights (lone win a UD)few UFC fights	2 of 2 — both R3 TKOfew UFC fights
Notice / last fight	Short-notice (Gastelum out Aug 13); last fought May 9	Original booking; last fought Mar 28

Archetype Base Rate

High-volume pocket boxer 36%64% Technical Striker / Outside Fighter

Qualitative overlay — both UFC samples are too small for a historical archetype row · A pocket-volume boxer versus a long-range kickboxer is usually a range fight, and range fights go to the longer, cleaner striker. No 1,000-bout archetype table is applied here because neither man has a deep UFC row to attach one to. The 64-36 lean is the tape, the 64-to-42 accuracy gap, and 2.17 SApM against 6.35 — not a statistical record prior.

Djorden SantosYousri Belgaroui

Middleweight

· 46 fighters

Stat	Djorden	Djorden rank	Div avg	Yousri rank	Yousri
SLpMSLpMSignificant Strikes Landed per Minute — offensive striking volume. Higher = busier striker.	6.64	—	4.22	—	6.10
Str AccStr AccStriking Accuracy — share of significant strikes thrown that land. Higher = more precise.	42%	—	52.9%	—	64%
Str DefStr DefStriking Defense — share of opponents' significant strikes that do NOT land. Higher = harder to hit.	48%	—	51.9%	—	64%
SApMSApMSignificant Strikes Absorbed per Minute — how much a fighter gets hit. Lower = better.	6.35	—	3.63	—	2.17
Damage RatioDamage RatioStrikes landed vs absorbed, normalized. Above 1.15 (division avg) = you hurt more than you get hurt.	1.05 (6.64 / 6.35)	—	1.25	—	2.54
TD/15TD/15Takedowns Landed per 15 minutes — wrestling pressure / takedown engine.	0.51	—	1.93	—	0.29
TD Acc	28%	—	—	—	100% (tiny sample)
TD DefTD DefTakedown Defense — share of opponents' takedown attempts stuffed.	85%	—	—	—	67% (4 TDs absorbed vs Bekoev)
Sub/15Sub/15Submission Attempts per 15 minutes — how actively a fighter hunts the finish on the mat.	0.00	—	0.72	—	0.00
UFC bouts	3 (1-2)	—	—	—	2 (2-0)

Statistical Verdict
Santos wins volume and takedown defense. Belgaroui wins everything that decides a striking match: accuracy (+22 points), absorption (2.17 against 6.35), damage ratio (2.54 against 1.05), and the tape measure (+6" height, +4" reach, +6" leg). Neither grappling column is a path — Santos does not take people down (0.51 TD/15, 28%) and Belgaroui does not submit anyone. The honest read is that Belgaroui wins the fight that stays at range, Santos needs a fifteen-minute pocket war on short notice, and somebody probably has to win it on a scorecard because Belgaroui has never been finished and Santos has not finished an UFC opponent.

Significant Strikes Landed per Round

⚠ R1, R2, R3: single-fight sample for Yousri Belgaroui

Control Time per Round (sec)

Djorden Santos

Available UFC sample: 3 fights, 9 observed rounds. This is the available sample, not a guarantee of complete career coverage. Shortened rounds are included; no values are assigned to rounds without observations.
UFC 313 vs Ozzy Diaz: 131 significant strikes landed, 135 absorbed — a 15-minute loss on output, not a blowout.
UFC Fight Night (Oct 18, 2025) vs Danny Barlow: 99 landed, 93 absorbed — a 15-minute volume win, his only Octagon victory.
UFC 328 vs Baisangur Susurkaev: rear-naked choke at 4:12 of Round 3. He was still in the fight in minute fourteen, and then he was submitted. That is the late-round data point, not a strike split.

Yousri Belgaroui

One fight only — the Azamat Bekoev debut. The Abdul-Malik bout has no row in fight statistics, so this is illustration, not a rate.
He out-landed Bekoev 102 of 138 to 24 of 77 — 74% against 31% — and closed with a 27-of-30, 90%-accuracy third round before the stoppage at 0:55.
Bekoev took him down three times in Round 1 and once more in Round 2 and still lost badly. Belgaroui concedes only 17 control seconds a round and spends 94.5% of his fight time standing — he gets taken down, he does not stay down.
The targeting rows are the whole signature: head 47.5% / body 22.0% / leg 30.5% in Round 1 becomes head 80.0% / body 16.4% / leg 3.6% in Round 3 — a +32.5-point head shift and a −26.9-point leg shift — while his clinch share climbs from 1.7% to 10.9%.

Critical Insight
Two escalating volume strikers, and now both tables are on the page. Santos ramps from 26.0 to 45.5 landed between the first and second rounds while his accuracy falls to 37.9% — he buys rounds with output and pays for them in efficiency, which is exactly how a man goes 99-93 and wins and 131-135 and loses. Belgaroui's one-fight sample runs the other way: 37 landed at 72%, then 38 at 66%, then 27 at 90% before the stoppage. On raw volume Santos matches him; on accuracy he is thirty points behind in every frame. The other split is positional. Santos has never left distance — 100%, 100%, 94.3% — while Belgaroui's clinch share climbs to 10.9% by the third and his target map shifts from 30.5% legs to 80% head. One man is a pure output striker with no plan B; the other has a documented escalation pattern that ends with an opponent's head.

Strike targeting

Djorden

84%

Head

84%

Body

Legs

Yousri

61%

20%

19%

Head

61%

Body

20%

Legs

19%

Head hunting vs body work vs leg attack — the shape of the damage.

Striking range — distance, clinch and ground

DjordenYousri

96%Distance94%

3%Clinch6%

1%Ground0%

Share of significant strikes landed at distance, in the clinch and on the ground across each fighter's UFC rounds, weighted by strike volume.

The Story of the Fight

Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath

Where the fight lives

Who owns each phase — and by how much

Open SpaceYousri owns it

+4" reach, +6" height, +6" leg reach, 64% accuracy against 42% — Santos's pocket game has not started at this distance

Pocket / ExchangesDjorden owns it

6.64 SLpM is his home, and 99-93 over Barlow is the proof — paid for with 6.35 SApM against a 64% counter-puncher

ClinchYousri owns it

Santos is not a clinch wrestler; Belgaroui's clinch accuracy reads 94.6% and the knee that ended Abdul-Malik lives here

GroundDjorden owns it

85% TDD and four career submissions against a man with zero attempts — but Santos's TD offence is 0.51 per fifteen at 28%, so the mat is a scramble bonus, not a plan

Path to Victory

Djorden Santos

Close four inches of reach, turn it into a fifteen-minute pocket war, and out-land a cleaner striker the way he out-landed Barlow — without fading into the choke that ended the Susurkaev fight.

Why they win

Real volume, not a mirage

6.64 significant strikes per minute and a 99-93 win over Danny Barlow. He will throw enough to win minutes if he is allowed to stand in the pocket.

Eighty-five percent takedown defense

Belgaroui is not a wrestler (0.29 TD/15) and Santos stuffs shots. This will not become a mat fight unless Santos hunts one.

Five years younger

29 against 34, with three fewer years of kickboxing mileage on the clock. In a three-round pocket fight, that is not nothing.

Career finishing variety Belgaroui has never shown

Four submissions (arm-triangle twice, guillotine, RNC) and three knockouts on the regional ledger. If a scramble happens, Santos is the only man in the cage who has finished one.

Orthodox versus orthodox

No southpaw puzzle. Belgaroui's last two UFC opponents were orthodox; Santos is the same stance, which at least does not steal the lead-leg kick's best angle.

American Top Team

A real camp behind a short-notice call-up, which is more infrastructure than most replacements get — even if the opponent-specific install is compressed.

The gameplan

1
Close the gap and stay closed
Four inches of reach is survivable. Six inches of height is not, if you fight at the end of it. Get in, stay in, make it a phone booth.
2
Throw the volume that beat Barlow
6.64 SLpM is the live path. He does not need to be more accurate than 42% if the other man is forced to exchange in a pocket instead of a kicking range.
3
Check the low kick from minute one
A six-inch leg-reach deficit is how this fight is lost in Round 3. Make every calf kick cost something in Round 1.
4
Do not wrestle for points
0.51 TD/15 at 28% is not a gameplan. Takedown defense at 85% is. Stuff whatever comes, then punch.
5
If a scramble happens, hunt the arm-triangle
Four career submissions, zero UFC attempts on the rate line. It is a bonus path, not the primary one — but Belgaroui has never had to defend it.
6
Contingency — do not fade
The Susurkaev tape is the entire underdog case against him. If Round 3 begins and he is tired, he is the next third-round Zuffa stoppage on Belgaroui's ledger. Shorten the fight with volume early or accept that the last five minutes are not his.

Path to Victory

Yousri Belgaroui

Refuse to negotiate the distance. Chop the 41" base for ten minutes, then move targeting to the head and let Round 3 do what it has done to three straight Zuffa opponents.

Why they win

The tape measure

+6" height, +4" reach, +6" leg reach. He can kick from a distance at which Santos's pocket game has not started yet.

Efficiency a full tier above

64% accuracy and 2.17 SApM against 42% and 6.35. Santos out-volumes him and still loses the damage exchange on every published number.

A decade of elite striking outside MMA

27-7 in Glory, the 2017 Contender Tournament, three world title challenges at 185 including one against Alex Pereira. His hands are not a two-fight sample.

The documented Round-3 pattern

Three straight Zuffa opponents stopped in the third round. Santos was submitted at 4:12 of Round 3 in May. Those two curves meet in the same five minutes.

Never finished, never knocked down

Thirteen professional fights, zero knockdowns absorbed, all three losses on the scorecards. Santos's UFC finishing threat is a blank line.

Santos is on short notice and coming off a choke

Gastelum withdrew August 13. Santos last fought May 9 and lost by RNC in Round 3. Camp quality and late-round scar tissue both run one way.

The gameplan

1
Fight at the end of the jab and the teep
Refuse to negotiate the distance. Every metre he concedes is a metre where Santos's 6.64 SLpM actually matters.
2
Invest in the low kick through Round 1
30.5% of his Round-1 volume goes to the legs for a reason. Against 41" of leg reach there is a six-inch buffer Santos cannot fill.
3
Let him come — then make the pocket expensive
Santos has to walk into 64% accuracy and a 94.6% clinch. The knee that finished Abdul-Malik is waiting at the end of every desperate entry.
4
Do not wrestle
He does not need a takedown and he will not get a submission. 85% TDD on the other side. Stay standing.
5
Run the Round-3 shift
Legs 30.5% → 3.6%, head 47.5% → 80.0%, output retained. Santos already broke at 14:12 once this year.
6
Contingency — if he is being out-landed in the pocket, reset
Circle off the fence, re-establish the teep, and do not pride-box a volume puncher at 6.35 SApM-to-his-own-2.17. The efficiency gap only pays if the fight stays long.

Danger Zone

How Djorden Santos loses

He closes the gap, wins the first round on volume, then the low kicks compound against a 41" leg, his entries slow, and Round 3 becomes the Bekoev/Abdul-Malik tape against a man who absorbs 6.35 per minute.
He never closes it at all — 79 inches of jab and teep, 64% accuracy, a 30-27 range clinic on short notice.
He crashes the pocket to escape the reach, gets caught in a clinch he initiated himself, and eats the same knee that ended Mansur Abdul-Malik.

Danger Zone

How Yousri Belgaroui loses

Santos does the Barlow thing for fifteen minutes: high-volume orthodox boxing, 85% takedown defense, no fade, and the judges see a 29-year-old walking a kickboxer backwards.
A scramble in the pocket produces the arm-triangle Santos has finished twice on the regional circuit — the one finishing door Belgaroui has never had to close, because nobody has put him there.
His 64% accuracy regresses against a volume puncher who actually throws, the fight stays standing and ugly, and a short-notice replacement out-points him the exact way all three of his career losses have happened: on the cards.

Why the replacement actually changes the texture

Gastelum Out, Volume In

Kelvin Gastelum withdrew August 13. The man who replaced him is not a 5'9" southpaw clinch wrestler with twenty-five UFC fights; he is a 6'0" orthodox pocket boxer with three. The tape gap shrinks from +9"/+7.5" to +6"/+4", and the wrestling path Gastelum needed — 23 clinch takedowns at 34% — is gone. What arrives instead is output: 6.64 SLpM against Gastelum's 3.65. Belgaroui is still the longer, cleaner, more durable striker. He is no longer facing a man who cannot reach him and will not throw. He is facing a man who will throw, get hit, and has to last fifteen minutes on short notice.

Aug 13

Gastelum withdrew; Santos is short-notice

The 6.35 problem

Volume Without a Guard

Santos's striking composite is held at 58, not 70, for one number: 6.35 significant strikes absorbed per minute at 48% defense. He out-volumes Belgaroui and still loses the exchange on paper because Belgaroui absorbs 2.17 at 64% accuracy the other way. A 1.05 damage ratio against a 2.54 damage ratio is not a close fight at range. It is only a fight if Santos forces the pocket and Belgaroui's accuracy regresses.

6.35 vs 2.17

SApM — the column that decides minutes

Where both tapes already exist

The Round-3 Intersection

Belgaroui has stopped his last three Zuffa opponents in Round 3. Santos was submitted at 4:12 of Round 3 on May 9. Those are not the same mechanism — one is a kickboxer shifting 32 points of targeting to the head, the other is a rear-naked choke — but they are the same minute. A short-notice replacement coming off a late fade, against a man whose entire UFC finishing résumé is late, is the clearest clock in the matchup.

4:12

Santos submitted in R3, May 2026

Why conviction stops at 5

Two Small Samples, Two Different Pedigrees

Santos is HIGH-MEDIUM: three UFC fights, real UFCStats rates, round splits for two of them. Belgaroui is LOW-MEDIUM: two UFC fights, one RxR row, Contender Series minutes inside the published aggregate. Underneath Belgaroui's thin MMA row sits 27-7 in Glory at this weight, including a night against Alex Pereira. Underneath Santos's row sits regional finishing (3 KO, 4 Sub) that has not followed him into the Octagon. The lean is defensible. A 75/25 would be pretending either sample is finished.

Career percentages that do not travel

Zero UFC Finishes Against Two UFC Finishes

Santos's career line still reads 64% finishes. His UFC line reads 0-for-1 on wins inside the distance — the Barlow fight went to the cards, the Diaz fight went to the cards, the Susurkaev fight ended with him in a choke. Belgaroui's career line reads 80% knockouts and his UFC line matches it: 2-for-2, both Round 3. Any model pricing Santos's 18% KO bucket off the regional 3-knockout ledger is pricing a fighter who has not shown that finish in this building.

0 vs 2

UFC finishes — Santos vs Belgaroui

The Five-Round Clock

Djorden Santos danger windowYousri Belgaroui danger windowNeutral / contested

R1 · 0:00–5:00Santos's volume window

The five minutes in which a pocket boxer can bank a round before the low kicks cash. Belgaroui, on tape, does not press here: he measures, chops the base at 30.5% leg targeting, and gathers information. If Santos does not have a 10-9 after this round, the rest of the clock is uphill.

Critical Insight
The clock runs one way. Santos's equity is highest in the opening five minutes, when volume can still buy a round and the low kicks have not compounded. Belgaroui's rises every minute the fight stays at range, and it peaks in the same Round 3 where Santos already broke once this year. If Santos has not banked Round 1, the targeting shift finishes the job. If he has, the fight almost certainly reaches a scorecard — which is exactly where 14 of his 36 points live.

Finish Threat by Round

Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.

The Verdict

One hundred simulated fights, the betting market, and our conviction

If you only read 3 things

Kelvin Gastelum withdrew August 13. Santos is a short-notice 6'0" volume boxer (6.64 SLpM, 42% accuracy, 6.35 SApM) against a 6'6" Glory kickboxer who lands at 64% and absorbs 2.17.

Belgaroui is +6" height, +4" reach, +6" leg reach, never finished, and 2-for-2 by Round-3 TKO in the UFC. Santos is 1-2, coming off an RNC at 4:12 of Round 3, with zero UFC finishes.

Model: Belgaroui 64% / Santos 36%, conviction 5/10. Decision ~50%, Belgaroui TKO ~28%, Santos KO ~18%, Santos sub ~4%, Belgaroui sub ~0.

Model outcomes per 100 fights

Each square represents one percentage point of the model distribution, not an observed fight. This visualization does not measure model accuracy or reduce uncertainty in the inputs.

Santos Decision — 14%Santos Submission — 4%Santos KO/TKO — 18%Belgaroui KO/TKO — 28%Belgaroui Decision — 36%Belgaroui Submission — 0%

Each square = 1 simulated fight. Djorden Santos gold · Yousri Belgaroui orange · full color = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

The tape measure

+6" height, +4" reach, +6" leg reach — smaller than the Gastelum gap, still the sample-independent variable. True whether Belgaroui has two UFC fights or twenty.

Accuracy and absorption

64% against 42%, 2.17 SApM against 6.35. Santos's volume (6.64 SLpM) is the underdog's entire striking case; the efficiency gap is the favourite's.

Short notice after a Round-3 submission

Gastelum withdrew August 13. Santos last fought May 9 and lost by RNC at 4:12 of Round 3. Camp compression plus scar tissue in the same minute Belgaroui finishes people.

The Round-3 pattern against the fade

Three straight Zuffa TKOs in Round 3 versus a man already submitted in Round 3. That intersection is why Belgaroui's TKO bucket sits at 28% rather than a rounding error.

Two unfinished UFC finishing résumés, opposite directions

Santos 0 UFC finishes; Belgaroui 2-for-2. Career percentages (64% and 80%) are not used as UFC priors.

Dual small samples

Three UFC fights (HIGH-MEDIUM, UFCStats rates, a limited observed round sample) against two UFC fights (LOW-MEDIUM, one RxR row, Contender Series minutes in the aggregate). Conviction capped at 5.

Fight Scripts

of simulations

The Range Clinic

Belgaroui refuses to let the fight happen anywhere but the end of his jab and his teep, banks fifteen minutes at a 64%-to-42% accuracy differential, and takes a clear decision against a short-notice replacement who cannot reliably reach him. The modal outcome on the page.

Scripted outcomes for Djorden Santos vs Yousri Belgaroui — how each version of this fight unfolds.

Djorden Santos win probability

18%

14%

KO/TKODECSUB

The largest Santos finishing bucket, priced off pocket volume and three career knockouts — and capped because he has zero UFC finishes and Belgaroui has never been knocked down in thirteen professional fights.
The entire dog case that does not require a finish: 99-93 over Barlow, 85% takedown defense, and a 29-year-old who can still win ugly if the fight is a phone booth for fifteen minutes.
Four career submissions (arm-triangle twice, guillotine, RNC) against a man who has never been submitted and has never had to defend one in the UFC. A scramble tail, not a hunted path. UFC Sub/15 is 0.00.

Yousri Belgaroui win probability

28%

36%

KO/TKODECSUB

Held below what an 80% career knockout rate and three straight Round-3 stoppages would imply, because two UFC fights is not a sample and Santos's chin has not been broken. Held this high because the Round-3 pattern is documented and Santos already faded at 14:12 once this year.
The modal outcome on the page. Fifteen minutes in which he lands at 64% from 79 inches against a man who has not finished an UFC opponent is the single most likely way this plays out, and it is how he beat Ahmed Sami over five rounds.
Zero. He has zero career submission wins and zero recorded UFC submission attempts. Anything above 0% would be inventing offence he does not have.

Projected Scorecards

How the model scores each round

Djorden

Yousri

29-28 Belgaroui

Santos banks the volume round, Belgaroui takes the last two

The most likely card in a fight that reaches them

30-27 Belgaroui

The range clinic runs unopposed for fifteen minutes

Common in the branch where Santos never closes the gap

29-28 Santos

Two rounds of pocket volume and a competitive third

The underdog's path — 14% of the simulation

Model and price

Djorden Santos

Freshness unverified

Model win probability: 36%
Fair odds: +178

Reference quote: +505 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds: 2.78

Estimated EV: +117.8%
Edge vs no-vig market: +20.1 pp

Yousri Belgaroui

Freshness unverified

Model win probability: 64%
Fair odds: -178

Reference quote: -700 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds: 1.56

Estimated EV: -26.9%
Edge vs no-vig market: -20.1 pp

EV uses the displayed price: probability × decimal odds − 1. Edge is a percentage-point difference from a proportionally de-vigged, same-book pair. A dash means that comparison is unavailable.

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Fair odds are the break-even price under this estimate, not a recommended entry price. Model uncertainty can erase a small edge.

What price would change the calculation? · Djorden Santos

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Assumed win probability (%)Your target estimated EV (%)

Required decimal price: 2.78 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

What price would change the calculation? · Yousri Belgaroui

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Assumed win probability (%)Your target estimated EV (%)

Required decimal price: 1.57 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

Original analyst price notes

These notes describe the original analysis and may refer to older prices.

The structurally honest side of our own distribution is the fight going the distance — 50%, a fair even-money price — because Belgaroui has never been finished and Santos has not finished anyone in the UFC. Belgaroui by decision is the modal bucket at 36% (fair +178), and it is the way a 6'6" kickboxer beats a short-notice volume puncher who cannot knock him out. Santos by KO at 18% (fair +456) is the lottery ticket if you believe the Barlow volume translates against a Glory-level striker; Santos inside the distance at 22% (fair +355) still requires a finish he has not landed in this building. Avoid Belgaroui by submission entirely (0%). For reference, our other model fair values are Belgaroui by KO/TKO 28% (+257), Santos by decision 14% (+614), and Santos by submission 4% (+2400).

Conviction

5/10

Editorial confidence in the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

A real lean built on length, accuracy, absorption and a Round-3 finishing pattern — capped at 5/10 because both UFC samples are tiny, Santos's volume is genuine, Gastelum's withdrawal makes this a short-notice install, and Belgaroui has never been asked to deal with 6.64 SLpM from a 6'0" pocket boxer. Lean: Yousri Belgaroui.

What backs the lean

+6" height, +4" reach, +6" leg reach — smaller than the Gastelum gap, still the fight at range.
64% accuracy and 2.17 SApM against 42% and 6.35 — a full-tier efficiency-and-defense gap.
Never finished and never knocked down in 13 professional fights, while Santos has zero UFC finishes.
Three straight Zuffa Round-3 TKOs, against a man submitted at 4:12 of Round 3 in May.
Ten years of Glory kickboxing at 185, including three world title challenges, underwriting the striking behind a two-fight MMA sample.
Santos is on short notice after Gastelum withdrew August 13, with no opponent-specific camp against a 6'6" kickboxer.

What limits it

Santos's volume is real: 6.64 SLpM and a 99-93 win over Danny Barlow. This is not Gastelum's 3.65 output.
Three UFC fights is still a thin HIGH-MEDIUM sample; the late-fade interpretation remains uncertain and depends on a small sample.
Belgaroui is two UFC fights and a rate line contaminated by Contender Series minutes — LOW-MEDIUM, and 64% accuracy can regress.
Four career submissions on Santos's ledger against a man who has never been submitted and has never had to defend one.
Age (29 vs 34) and 85% takedown defense mean this will not become a wrestling clinic Belgaroui can lose on the mat.
All three of Belgaroui's career losses came on the scorecards, which is exactly the 14% Santos decision path.

Final Assessment

In roughly 64 of 100 simulations, Yousri "Baby Face Assassin" Belgaroui makes length and efficiency decisive. Most often — 36% — he simply refuses to let the fight happen anywhere but the end of his jab, banks fifteen minutes at a 64%-to-42% accuracy differential, and takes a clear decision against a short-notice replacement who could not reliably reach him. In 28% he does what he has now done to three consecutive Zuffa opponents: chops a base that is already six inches short, shifts targeting to the head by the third, and finishes a man who was submitted at 4:12 of Round 3 in May. He is given 0% on submissions because he has never attempted one.

In the other 36, Djorden "Shakur" Santos's volume writes a different night. In 18% the pocket boxing that produced 99 strikes against Barlow finds a knockout before the low kicks cash. In 14% he simply out-lands a kickboxer for fifteen minutes and takes a decision the way all three of Belgaroui's losses have happened. In 4% a scramble produces an arm-triangle or guillotine from the regional ledger. Every one of those paths requires him to close four inches of reach on short notice and not fade in the same round where he already got submitted this year.

The data gives Belgaroui six inches of height, four of reach, six of leg, a striking-efficiency edge, an unbreakable MMA chin, and a documented Round-3 pattern; it gives Santos the only real volume in the fight, a five-year age edge, 85% takedown defense, and a finishing variety that has not yet shown up in the UFC. Kelvin Gastelum withdrew August 13. On September 12 at Desert Diamond Arena in Glendale, we take the tall man 64-36 — mostly on the scorecards, sometimes on the highlight reel — and we do not pretend either three-fight or two-fight sample is finished.

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