Kurtis Campbell vs Trevor Peek – UFC Fight Night: Parnasse vs. Hooker Fight Analytics & Prediction

PRELIMS · FEATHERWEIGHT · 3 ROUNDSUFC Fight Night: Parnasse vs. Hooker

Kurtis Campbell

“The Pink Panther”

8W1L

Wrestling-First Prospect

…

Trevor Peek

9W3L

Power Boxer

…

Twenty-two takedowns absorbed, against a man who claims 8.76 per fifteen minutes

FeatherweightAccor Arena, Paris, FranceSeptember 5, 2026Standard 30ft Octagon

The Frame

What this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it

The Analyst's Take

The thinnest evidence base on the Paris card, and the one number that cuts through it. Across thirteen Octagon rounds, opponents have taken Trevor Peek down 22 times on 47 attempts and held him under control for 1,325 seconds — twenty-two minutes, 102 seconds of every round he has fought. Kurtis Campbell's published UFCStats line is 8.76 takedowns per fifteen minutes. That is the fight. The catch is that Campbell's line comes from roughly six minutes of recorded professional cage time, and the last time anyone saw him at this level, Danny Silva stopped him 31 seconds into the second round.

Kurtis Campbell

Attribute

Trevor Peek

247 years younger

Age

5'9"

Height

5'9"

72"+2" Campbell

Reach

70"

N/A

Leg Reach

N/A

Switch

Stance

Switch

MMA Academy Liverpool

Team

Bang Muay Thai

Mar 21, 2026

Octagon Debut

Feb 25, 2023

0-1

UFC Record

2-3 across five bouts

Chain wrestling into ground-and-pound

Fighting Style

Power boxing, eight KO wins in nine

Identical height, two inches of reach to the younger man, and both fight switch — the mirror-geometry problem cuts both ways, with no orthodox-southpaw open side for either to exploit. Neither has a published leg reach. The meaningful separation is chronological and directional: Campbell is 24 with one Octagon appearance and a 72-inch frame he uses to close distance rather than keep it; Peek is 31, has been in the UFC since February 2023, and has not had his hand raised since October 2023.

Venue Factor
Three rounds is the format that suits Campbell's stated plan and punishes Peek's measured decline. Peek's own round-by-round record is a descending staircase — 25.2 significant strikes in the first, 20.5 in the second, 14.3 in the third, with accuracy falling from 52% to 44%. He has gone the full fifteen minutes four times and lost three of them. Every minute after the first five moves toward the wrestler, which is precisely why Campbell's problem is the first five.

The Fighters

Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage

Kurtis Campbell

Pro Record

8-1-0

UFC Record

0-1 — TKO loss to Danny Silva, March 21, 2026

Streak

Lost his last — Silva, TKO at 0:31 of round two

Finish Rate

75% — six of eight wins inside the distance (5 KO/TKO, 1 submission)

Avg Fight Time

1:20 (single database bout)

Chin · UnprovenSOS · Regional / DWCSWrestling-first pressure fighter

A 24-year-old Liverpool prospect who arrived on a wave and was met with a wall. Eight wins, six of them finishes, culminating in a first-round TKO of Demba Seck on Dana White's Contender Series in 2025 that earned the contract. Then Danny Silva, and 31 seconds into the second round it was over — the only loss of his professional career and the only time he has faced anybody at this weight who could hit back at UFC level. The published UFCStats line that has re-priced this fight, 8.76 takedowns per fifteen minutes at 40% accuracy, is drawn from roughly six minutes of recorded cage time and should be read as a direction rather than a rate. Both knockdown counters here read zero because the database holds no round-by-round rows for him at all, not because nothing happened.

Trevor Peek

Pro Record

9-3-0 (1 NC)

UFC Record

2-3 across five bouts since February 2023

Streak

Lost his last two — Charlie Campbell (Apr 2024) and Yanal Ashmouz (Sep 2024)

Finish Rate

89% — eight of nine wins by KO/TKO, none by submission

Avg Fight Time

12:06

Chin · Durable — never knocked down in thirteen Octagon roundsSOS · Mid-tier UFCPower boxer

He announced himself with one second to spare — Erick Gonzalez stopped at 4:59 of the opening round on debut in February 2023 — and the Octagon has spent three years explaining the limits since. Chepe Mariscal out-pointed him four months later, Mohammad Yahya was out-pointed in return at UFC 294, and then Charlie Campbell and Yanal Ashmouz each took three rounds off him without ever threatening a finish. The pattern in those losses is uniform and it is not about his chin, which has never touched the canvas in thirteen rounds: opponents landed 22 takedowns on 47 attempts and controlled him for 1,325 seconds. He drops to featherweight, from a lightweight division where he sits 74th of 85 in striking defence, having not fought since September 2024.

Kurtis Campbell

0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Knockdown Exchange

KD dealt vs absorbed

Trevor Peek

0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Kurtis Campbellsignature weapons

Ground-and-Pound TKODemba Seck (DWCS 2025, R1) and Daniel Matusic (FCC 40, R1) — the two documented stoppages behind a published 8.76 takedowns per fifteen minutes

×2

Rear-Naked ChokeMárcio Valério, FCC 41, R2 — the only submission win on either side of this fight; both men's Sub/15 reads 0.00

×1

Trevor Peeksignature weapons

Right HandEight of nine career wins by KO/TKO, including Erick Gonzalez at 4:59 of the first round on his UFC debut

×8

Round-One Blitz25.2 significant strikes landed per opening round at 0.40 knockdowns — both of his Octagon knockdowns came in a first round

×1

Kurtis Campbell

Danny Silva

KO/TKO

RR2 (0:31)

UFC Fight Night — Mar 21, 2026

Demba Seck

KO/TKO — Knee

RR1 (1:20)

Dana White's Contender Series — 2025

Márcio Valério

Submission — Rear-Naked Choke

RR2

FCC 41

Daniel Matusic

KO/TKO

RR1

FCC 40

Matheus Lima

Decision — Unanimous

RR3

FCC 39

Pattern

Four wins built on the same shape — get hold of somebody and finish them — and one loss that arrived the moment the opponent could stop him getting hold. Three of the four wins here ended inside two rounds, two of them in the first. Against Silva he was frozen early, could not close the distance, and was stopped 31 seconds into the second. That single fight is the entire UFC-level sample, and it is the exact scenario Peek is built to recreate.

Trevor Peek

Yanal Ashmouz

Decision — Unanimous

RR3

UFC FN: Burns vs. Brady — Sep 7, 2024

Charlie Campbell

Decision — Unanimous

RR3

UFC FN: Allen vs. Curtis 2 — Apr 6, 2024

Mohammad Yahya

Decision — Unanimous

RR3

UFC 294 — Oct 21, 2023

Chepe Mariscal

Decision — Unanimous

RR3

UFC FN: Emmett vs. Topuria — Jun 24, 2023

Erick Gonzalez

KO/TKO

RR1 (4:59)

UFC FN: Muniz vs. Allen — Feb 25, 2023

Pattern

Five UFC fights, four of them all fifteen minutes, and three unanimous-decision losses. The one finish is the debut. What the sequence shows is a fighter whose method — walk forward, throw power — produces one outcome when it lands early and a different one every other time. Mariscal, Charlie Campbell and Ashmouz all beat him the same way, and none of them came close to hurting him. He is 0-2 since April 2024 and has not competed at all since September of that year.

Kurtis Campbell

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Trevor Peek

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Critical Insight
The two charts are on different scopes and the difference matters. The donuts are career: Campbell's eight wins split five KO/TKO, one submission and two decisions; Peek's nine split eight KO/TKO and one decision. The round bars underneath are documented-round wins only — four of Campbell's eight, from the analysis file's last-five table, and two of Peek's nine, being the pair recorded in the UFC database. That scope flatters Campbell badly, because seven of Peek's eight knockouts happened on regional cards whose finishing rounds are not published anywhere we can verify. Read the donuts for who finishes, the bars for when, and do not read the bars as evidence that Campbell is the bigger puncher. He is not.

Common Opponents

Opponent	Kurtis	Trevor
Danny Silva (style proxy for Peek)	L· TKO R2 0:31 (Mar 2026)	—(the blueprint)
A boxing-first striker froze Campbell in open space and stopped him early — the only tape of the Liverpool prospect against UFC-level striking, and the fight Peek will be trying to copy
Charlie Campbell (no relation)	—(different fighter entirely)	L· UD3 (Apr 2024)
Flagged because the surname collides: the Campbell who beat Peek over three rounds in April 2024 is Charlie, not Kurtis. The two have never met
Yanal Ashmouz / Chepe Mariscal (pressure proxies)	—(Campbell's target profile)	L· UD3 both
Both took Peek the distance and out-worked him without a knockdown; between them and Charlie Campbell they are why he has absorbed 22 takedowns in five fights

The Numbers

Composites, division ranks and round-by-round evidence

Striking

SLpM 25% · StrAcc 30% · StrDef 30% · SApM 15%

Kurtissmall sample

Trevor

Two points, and they come from defence rather than offence. Peek out-lands him (4.39 to 3.50) and out-shoots him on accuracy (54% to 48%), but absorbs 3.88 a minute against 2.63 and blocks 44% against 51%. The composite rewards the cleaner ledger; the cage often rewards the harder puncher.

Grappling

TD/15 25% · TDAcc 25% · TDDef 30% · Sub/15 20%

Kurtissmall sample

Trevor

The widest gap on the page and the reason this fight was re-priced. Campbell's published 8.76 takedowns per fifteen minutes is a small-sample number; Peek's 22 takedowns absorbed on 47 attempts across thirteen rounds is not. Neither man has a submission attempt on record — both read 0.00 per fifteen minutes.

Technical

(Striking + Grappling) / 2

0.0

Kurtissmall sample

0.0

Trevor

Five points to the debutant, entirely on the wrestling column. This is the number that moved the model from 44-56 to 47-53 — the technical read now favours Campbell while the outcome read still favours Peek, and living with that tension is what a 3/10 conviction means.

Cardio

Fight time · pace · R3/R1 output · champ rounds

Kurtissmall sample

Trevor

The only composite Peek wins, on the strength of a 12:06 average fight time and four full fifteen-minute performances against a man with no deep-water sample at all. The round-by-round data argues against him: his output falls from 25.2 to 14.3 significant strikes and his accuracy from 52% to 44% by the third.

Overall

(Technical + Cardio) / 2

Kurtissmall sample

Trevor

One point — and it points the other way from the prediction. The composites make Campbell marginally the better fighter on paper; the model still makes Peek a 53% favourite because paper is where Campbell's advantage lives and the Octagon is where Peek's does.

Metric	Kurtis	Trevor
Avg Fight TimeAvg Fight TimeAverage fight duration — long averages mark proven cardio and decision-ready grinders.	1:20 (single DB bout)small sample	12:06
Pace Tier	3.50 SLpM — below the 4.73 FW averagesmall sample	4.39 SLpM — 44th of 85 lightweights
R3/R1 OutputR3/R1 OutputThird-round output as % of first-round output. Above 100% = builds into the fight; below = fades.	No round datasmall sample	57% — 14.3 sig in R3 against 25.2 in R1
Control Absorbed	No round datasmall sample	1,325 sec over 13 rounds — 102 per round
Champ RoundsChamp RoundsEvidence from rounds 4-5 — only fighters with five-round experience have data here.	N/A — 3-round bout	N/A — 3-round bout

Archetype Base Rate

Wrestling-First Pressure 47%53% Power Boxer

No archetype base-rate row for this pairing · No historical archetype win-rate is applied. The 53-47 line is the analysis file's revision from 56-44 after the UFCStats pass surfaced Campbell's takedown numbers — a three-point move toward the underdog, made on a sample small enough that the conviction was held at three out of ten.

Kurtis CampbellTrevor Peek

Featherweight

· 78 fighters

Stat	Kurtis	Kurtis rank	Div avg	Trevor rank	Trevor
SLpMSLpMSignificant Strikes Landed per Minute — offensive striking volume. Higher = busier striker.	3.50	—	~4.73	44/85	4.39
Str AccStr AccStriking Accuracy — share of significant strikes thrown that land. Higher = more precise.	48%	—	~49.9%	13/85	54%
Str DefStr DefStriking Defense — share of opponents' significant strikes that do NOT land. Higher = harder to hit.	51%	—	~55.0%	74/85	44%
SApMSApMSignificant Strikes Absorbed per Minute — how much a fighter gets hit. Lower = better.	2.63	—	~3.93	35/85	3.88
KD AvgKD AvgKnockdown Average — knockdowns scored per 15 minutes. The one-shot power indicator.	No data	—	~1.46	43/85	0.41
TD/15TD/15Takedowns Landed per 15 minutes — wrestling pressure / takedown engine.	8.76	—	~1.89	35/85	1.45
TD Acc	40%	—	~40.6%	—	50%
TD DefTD DefTakedown Defense — share of opponents' takedown attempts stuffed.	50%	—	~67.8%	64/85	53%
Sub/15Sub/15Submission Attempts per 15 minutes — how actively a fighter hunts the finish on the mat.	0.00	—	~0.56	54/85	0.00
TD Absorbed (UFC)	No data	—	—	—	22 of 47 attempts
Avg Fight TimeAvg Fight TimeAverage fight duration — long averages mark proven cardio and decision-ready grinders.	1:20 (1 bout)	—	—	—	12:06

Statistical Verdict
Peek's two worst columns are the two things Campbell is supposed to do. He is 74th of 85 lightweights in striking defence and 64th in takedown defence, and the raw round data is blunter than the percentage: 22 takedowns absorbed on 47 attempts, 1,325 seconds spent under control. Both men also sit far below the featherweight takedown-defence average of 67.8% — Campbell at 50%, Peek at 53% — which is a real reason to expect this fight to hit the mat regardless of who wants it there. What the table cannot tell you is whether Campbell can do it, because he has no rank in any row.

Significant Strikes Landed per Round

⚠ R1, R2, R3: single-fight sample for Kurtis Campbell

Control Time per Round (sec)

Kurtis Campbell

No data. Kurtis Campbell has zero rows in the round-by-round dataset — his UFC debut against Danny Silva post-dates the February 2, 2026 snapshot, and Contender Series bouts are not carried.
Nothing here is estimated. His per-round output, accuracy, control time and knockdowns are genuinely unknown, which is why his side of the targeting and range charts below is empty rather than filled in.
What is known comes from the fight log alone: three of his four documented wins ended inside two rounds, two of them in the first.

Trevor Peek

A descending staircase. Output falls 25.2 → 20.5 → 14.3 significant strikes and accuracy 52% → 59% → 44%. By the third round he lands 43% less than he did in the first.
His work migrates upward as it shrinks: legs take 20.6% of his first-round strikes and only 5.3% by the third, while body work climbs from 20.6% to 33.3%. He stops kicking and starts leaning.
He is a distance fighter who has never been knocked down — 79.4% of first-round strikes at range, 86.0% by the third, and zero knockdowns absorbed in thirteen rounds — but the ground column tells the real story: 7.1%, 2.4%, 5.3%. He does almost nothing on the mat, and he spends 102 seconds a round there being held.

Critical Insight
Peek's third round is the softest target on this card. Fourteen strikes at 44% accuracy, 86% of them thrown at range, in a round where he has already surrendered an average of 102 seconds of control across his career — that is a fighter running out of ways to win. The problem for the model is symmetric: we have thirteen rounds telling us exactly how Trevor Peek fades, and zero rounds telling us whether Kurtis Campbell can still be standing to take advantage.

Strike Targeting (career avg)

Head hunting vs body work vs leg attack — the shape of the damage. Fighters without UFC samples are omitted rather than shown as 0%.

Range Profile — where the minutes go

Kurtis · N/ATrevor

—Distance79%

—Clinch16%

—Ground5%

Share of significant-strike volume by range from UFC career data. Debutants / fighters without Octagon samples show as N/A.

The Story of the Fight

Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath

Where the fight lives

Who owns each phase — and by how much

Open SpaceTrevor owns it

79.4% of Peek's R1 offence at distance, 4.39 SLpM at 54% accuracy, eight KO wins in nine

Pocket / ExchangesTrevor owns it

0.40 knockdowns per opening round against a fighter stopped in his only UFC-level striking test

ClinchKurtis owns it

Peek's clinch share triples to 26.8% in R2 — where most of the 22 takedowns against him have started

GroundKurtis owns it

1,325 sec of career control absorbed, 7.1%/2.4%/5.3% ground offence, 0.00 submissions per 15 min

Path to Victory

Kurtis Campbell

Get a hand on him inside the first two minutes. Peek has been taken down 22 times on 47 attempts and held for 102 seconds a round; if Campbell's published 8.76 takedowns per fifteen minutes is even half real, the fight is a wrestling match he wins.

Why they win

The takedown ledger

Opponents have landed 22 takedowns on Peek from 47 attempts across five UFC fights and controlled him for 1,325 seconds. Nothing else on this page is as well-evidenced.

A published 8.76 takedowns per fifteen minutes

Small sample, flagged everywhere, but it is the largest single number in the matchup and it points directly at Peek's 53% takedown defence — 64th of 85 lightweights.

Seven years and two inches

24 against 31, with a 72-inch reach against 70. He is the fresher, longer man in a bout where his opponent has not competed since September 2024.

The cleaner damage ledger

2.63 significant strikes absorbed per minute against Peek's 3.88, and 51% striking defence against 44%. Even standing, Campbell takes less than the man opposite him.

Peek's third round

14.3 significant strikes at 44% accuracy, 86% of them at range. If Campbell survives ten minutes, the last five are the most winnable on the card.

The gameplan

1
Shoot inside the first two minutes
The analysis puts it plainly — shoot early, chain the takedown. Peek's opening round is his most dangerous (25.2 strikes, 0.40 knockdowns), so the entry has to come before the exchange, not after it.
2
Chain, don't single-shot
47 takedown attempts have been made on Peek and 22 landed. That is a 47% conversion rate for opponents who keep going — the number rewards volume of entries, not one perfect double.
3
Never stand in the pocket
Eight of nine career wins by knockout. Campbell's 51% striking defence is better than Peek's 44%, but nothing in the striking numbers is worth the risk of finding out whose is real.
4
Use the two inches to enter, not to jab
A 72-inch reach against 70 is a tool for changing levels from outside the pocket. Trading at range is where 79.4% of Peek's first-round offence already lives.
5
Bank control, then attack the third
1,325 seconds of career control absorbed and a third-round output of 14.3 strikes at 44%. If the first two rounds are close, the last one is where Peek has historically had nothing left.

Path to Victory

Trevor Peek

Make it the Silva fight again. Keep it at range, where 79.4% of his first-round offence lives, and land the right hand before a 24-year-old with one Octagon appearance can close the distance.

Why they win

Eight knockouts in nine wins

89% of his career victories are KO/TKO, including a first-round finish of Erick Gonzalez on debut. He needs one exchange to end this.

The Danny Silva tape

Campbell was frozen in open space and stopped 31 seconds into the second round. That is the entire UFC-level record of what happens when he cannot close the distance.

Thirteen rounds against none

Five Octagon bouts, four of them the full fifteen minutes, against a debutant with 5:31 of UFC cage time. Every Campbell number is a projection.

Never been knocked down

Zero knockdowns absorbed in thirteen Octagon rounds, and no submission loss on his record. He gets out-worked, not hurt — and Campbell has no submission offence at all (0.00 per fifteen minutes).

First-round volume

25.2 significant strikes landed per opening round at 0.40 knockdowns, 79.4% of them at distance. The round where he is most dangerous is the round Campbell must survive.

The gameplan

1
Stuff the first shot and make him pay
The published plan and the Silva blueprint: punish failed entries. Campbell's takedown accuracy is 40% even by his own inflated line, which means most attempts end with him in a bad position.
2
Fight at range from the opening bell
79.4% of his first-round work is at distance and it is where his knockdowns come from. The clinch — 26.8% of his second-round output — is the one place his wrestling problem starts.
3
Freeze him early
Silva stopped Campbell 31 seconds into the second round by refusing to let him close. Peek's 25.2-strike first round is the same weapon, and his first round is his best.
4
Keep the fight off the fence
Every one of the 22 takedowns he has absorbed came with him going backwards. Circling off and resetting to open space is worth more than any counter he can throw.
5
Close the show before the third
His own numbers say the third round is a losing proposition: 14.3 significant strikes, 44% accuracy, the lowest leg output of any round. Two rounds is the window.

Danger Zone

How Kurtis Campbell loses

He walks into the right hand trying to close distance, exactly as he did against Danny Silva, and the fight is over before the wrestling is ever tested.
The 8.76 takedowns per fifteen minutes turns out to be a regional artifact against a man with 53% takedown defence and a whizzer, and he spends fifteen minutes eating counters on failed entries.
Peek's 25.2-strike opening round lands on a fighter whose UFC chin has been hit exactly once, and broke.

Danger Zone

How Trevor Peek loses

He is taken down in the first ninety seconds and the fight becomes the thing that has beaten him three times — 102 seconds a round on his back, with no submission threat to reverse it and no route to a knockout from underneath.
Twenty-three months out of competition shows up in the timing, and a 24-year-old with a two-inch reach edge gets to the hips at will.
The third round arrives with the fight even, and his 14.3-strikes-at-44% version has to win it against a fresher man.

The fight's central axis

Twenty-Two Takedowns

Across thirteen Octagon rounds, opponents have taken Trevor Peek down 22 times on 47 attempts and controlled him for 1,325 seconds — an average of 102 seconds of every round he has fought. His three UFC losses are all unanimous decisions to men who did exactly that. Kurtis Campbell's published UFCStats line is 8.76 takedowns per fifteen minutes.

takedowns absorbed on 47 attempts, five UFC fights

Why the favourite is still the favourite

Thirty-One Seconds

The one time Kurtis Campbell shared a cage with a UFC-level striker, Danny Silva stopped him 31 seconds into the second round. Eight of Peek's nine career wins are knockouts and his opening round averages 25.2 significant strikes with 0.40 knockdowns. The wrestling argument only exists if Campbell is still upright to make it.

0:31

into R2 — Campbell's only professional loss

What thirteen rounds actually show

The Descending Staircase

Peek's output falls 25.2 → 20.5 → 14.3 significant strikes across the three rounds and his accuracy ends at 44%. His leg kicks drop from 20.6% of his strikes to 5.3%. He has gone the distance four times and lost three of them, and the shape of every loss is the same.

The honest caveat

Zero Rounds of Evidence

Campbell has no rows in the round-by-round dataset and a single 1:20 bout in the fighter table. That one row would rank him first of 78 featherweights in striking accuracy, takedowns and takedown defence — which is why this page shows him no ranks at all. His 8.76 takedowns per fifteen minutes is a direction, not a rate.

Where the fight probably goes

Both Men Are Below Average On The Mat

Featherweight averages 67.8% takedown defence. Campbell's published figure is 50% and Peek's is 53%. Whatever either man intends, the historical base rate says this fight touches the canvas — and only one of them has ever won a fight from there.

The Five-Round Clock

Kurtis Campbell danger windowTrevor Peek danger windowNeutral / contested

R1 · 0:00–5:00Peek's best five minutes

25.2 significant strikes landed, 0.40 knockdowns, 79.4% of it at range. Both of his Octagon knockdowns came in a first round, and his only UFC finish came with one second left in one.

Critical Insight
This is a two-window fight with nothing in between. Peek's danger is concentrated in the first five minutes, where his volume and both career knockdowns live; Campbell's grows with every minute the fight survives, and by the third round he is facing a man landing fourteen strikes at 44%. The unusual thing is that neither fighter's window is well-evidenced on the other side of the cage — we know precisely how Peek fades and nothing at all about whether Campbell will be there to see it.

Finish Threat by Round

Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.

The Verdict

One hundred simulated fights, the betting market, and our conviction

If you only read 3 things

Trevor Peek has been taken down 22 times on 47 attempts and controlled for 1,325 seconds across thirteen Octagon rounds. Kurtis Campbell's published line is 8.76 takedowns per fifteen minutes. That is the entire case for the underdog.

It is also a case built on nothing: Campbell has zero rows in the round-by-round dataset, a single 1:20 bout in the fighter table, and one UFC appearance that ended with Danny Silva stopping him 31 seconds into the second round.

Model: Peek 53% / Campbell 47%, conviction 3/10 — the lowest on the Paris prelims. The composites actually favour Campbell 53-52; the prediction does not follow them, because his advantage is on paper and Peek's is on tape.

100 Simulated Fights

Peek KO/TKO — 28%Peek Decision — 23%Peek Submission — 2%Campbell Decision — 22%Campbell KO/TKO — 18%Campbell Submission — 7%

Each square = 1 simulated fight. Kurtis Campbell gold · Trevor Peek orange · full color = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

The wrestling mismatch

22 takedowns absorbed on 47 attempts and 1,325 seconds of control conceded across five fights. This is the best-evidenced fact in the matchup and it is the reason Campbell's decision bucket (22 of 100) is nearly as large as Peek's (23).

One-shot equity

Eight of Peek's nine wins are knockouts and Campbell's only professional loss came 31 seconds into a second round. Peek's KO bucket at 28 is the single largest outcome on the page.

Sample asymmetry

Thirteen rounds of round-by-round data on one side, zero on the other. Campbell's entire statistical case rests on roughly six minutes of recorded cage time, which is why a five-point technical edge only buys him 47%.

Inactivity

Peek's last recorded bout is September 7, 2024 — a verified layoff of at least seventeen months through the database snapshot, and close to two years by fight night. Ring rust is not modelled explicitly, but it widens the variance on every one of his numbers.

Nobody defends takedowns here

Campbell 50%, Peek 53%, against a featherweight average of 67.8%. Both submission rates read 0.00 per fifteen minutes. The mat is likely and neither man has a finishing threat from it, which is why both decision buckets are large.

Fight Scripts

of simulations

The Silva Rerun

Peek keeps it at range where 79.4% of his first-round work lives, refuses the entry, and lands the right hand that has ended eight of his nine wins. Campbell never gets to the hips and the wrestling argument is never tested. The largest single bucket on the page.

Scripted outcomes for Kurtis Campbell vs Trevor Peek — how each version of this fight unfolds.

Kurtis Campbell win probability

18%

22%

KO/TKODECSUB

Eighteen points. Five of his eight career wins are KO/TKO and two documented stoppages came in first rounds from top position — but Peek has never been knocked down in thirteen Octagon rounds, so this is a ground-and-pound bucket more than a punching one.
His largest bucket, and the one that needs nothing exotic: 22 takedowns have already landed on Peek in five fights, and three rounds of control time wins three rounds on the cards.
Seven points — the largest submission share on the Paris prelims, off one career rear-naked choke against a man with zero submission losses. It reflects the 1,325 seconds of control Peek concedes, not a hunted path.

Trevor Peek win probability

28%

23%

KO/TKODECSUB

The largest single bucket on the page. Eight of nine career wins by KO/TKO, 25.2 significant strikes and 0.40 knockdowns per opening round, against a fighter whose only UFC-level striking test ended in a second-round stoppage.
Twenty-three points, and the shape of the Yahya win: out-land him at range for fifteen minutes. Capped below his knockout bucket because his third round produces 14.3 strikes at 44%.
Two points. He has no submission offence on record — 0.00 attempts per fifteen minutes and zero career submission wins. These are scramble outcomes.

Projected Scorecards

How the model scores each round

Trevor

Kurtis

29-28 Peek

He wins the two rounds his volume actually covers

The most likely card in a fight that reaches them

29-28 Campbell

Two rounds of control time against a fading third

His realistic path — the takedowns only need to land twice

30-27 Peek

The entries never land and the range fight runs unopposed

Common if Campbell's 8.76 turns out to be a regional number

Moneyline

Kurtis Campbell

-400

Trevor Peek

+300

BetOnline moneyline shown above (Sep 4, 2026). Model fair prices and value notes below compare our analysis to the market where props exist — they are not alternate sportsbook lines.

Props: model vs market

Prop	Odds	Implied %	Model %	Fair	Edge	Verdict

Best Value
Campbell by decision is where the model most expects to disagree with an opening line. At 22 of his 47 win-shares it is his largest bucket, it is built on the best-evidenced number in the matchup — 22 takedowns absorbed on 47 attempts — and it is exactly the outcome a market pricing a 0-1 debutant against a five-fight veteran will undervalue. The counterweight is honest: if the books make Peek a heavy favourite, they are pricing the Danny Silva tape, and that tape is real.

Conviction

3/10

The lowest conviction on the Paris prelims, and the only fight on the card where the composite scores and the win probability point in opposite directions. Peek is chalk on tape; Campbell is the better fighter on a spreadsheet built from six minutes of cage time. Lean: Trevor Peek.

What backs the lean

Eight of nine career wins by KO/TKO, and 25.2 significant strikes with 0.40 knockdowns per opening round.
Campbell's only UFC-level striking test ended with Danny Silva stopping him 31 seconds into round two.
Thirteen rounds of Octagon evidence against zero — every Campbell figure is a projection from two recorded bouts.
Never knocked down in the UFC and no submission loss on record, against an opponent with 0.00 submission attempts per fifteen minutes.

What limits it

22 takedowns absorbed on 47 attempts and 1,325 seconds of control conceded — the best-evidenced fact in the matchup, and it points at the underdog.
The composites make Campbell the better fighter 53-52, and the technical score favours him by five points.
Peek's output falls to 14.3 significant strikes at 44% accuracy by the third round, and he has lost three of four fights that got there.
He has not competed since September 7, 2024 — a layoff of at least seventeen verified months, and close to two years by fight night.

Final Assessment

This is the hardest fight on the Paris card to price, and the numbers are honest about why. One fighter has thirteen rounds of Octagon record that describe a specific, repeatable way of losing: 22 takedowns absorbed on 47 attempts, 1,325 seconds under control, three unanimous-decision defeats to men who simply held him down. The other has a published takedown rate of 8.76 per fifteen minutes and almost no evidence that it means anything, because the database holds a single 1:20 bout for him and no round-by-round data at all.

So the composites and the prediction disagree, and both are right. Campbell wins the technical read 54.5 to 49.5 on the strength of a wrestling number that would decide this fight if it is real. Peek wins the outcome read 53-47 on the strength of eight knockouts in nine wins and one piece of tape in which a UFC-level striker froze the Liverpool prospect in open space and finished him 31 seconds into the second round. Nothing in either dataset resolves the other.

The honest read: this is a coin flip dressed as a mismatch, and the fair prices — Peek -113, Campbell +113 — say so. Take Peek if you believe the first five minutes decide it, where his 25.2 strikes and both career knockdowns live. Take Campbell if you believe the fight gets past ten minutes, where his opponent lands fourteen strikes at 44% and has spent a career on his back. Conviction three out of ten is not hedging; it is the correct answer to a question neither database can settle.

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