Loma Lookboonmee vs Jaqueline Amorim
Women's Strawweight Bout • UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo
Saturday, May 30, 2026 • Galaxy Arena, Macau (large 30 ft cage)
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Loma Lookboonmee
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Jaqueline Amorim
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Loma Lookboonmee
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-01 | Alexia Thainara | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-04-01 | Istela Nunes | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-02-01 | Bruna Brasil | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-02-01 | Elise Reed | W | Submission - Rear-Naked Choke (R2, 0:44) |
| 2022-09-01 | Denise Gomes | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Jaqueline Amorim
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-01 | Mizuki | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-04-01 | Polyana Viana | W | Submission (R2, 5:00) |
| 2024-09-01 | Vanessa Demopoulos | W | Submission (R1, 5:00) |
| 2024-03-01 | Cory McKenna | W | Submission (R1, 5:00) |
| 2023-08-01 | Conejo Ruiz | W | KO/TKO (R3, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (48 vs 45) and Grappling Composite (46 vs 53). Amorim grappling uses an analyst-blended TD defense input when the published 0% is a small-sample artifact. Balances striking effectiveness with grappling to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Visual comparison of key performance metrics between both fighters
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Loma Lookboonmee Key Advantages
Lookboonmee lands 3.67 significant strikes per minute at 55% accuracy versus Amorim's 2.43 at 50%—that minute differential is the cleanest path to winning optics on the feet. She is built to bank touches, layer combinations, and force grapplers into kickboxing exams; Thainara ( 30–44 sig strikes against) still lost the scorecards to her because activity, forward motion, and clinch-strike minutes matter as much as raw landed totals.
Official UFCstats show 68% takedown defense—the same profile that showed up against Istela Nunes (three takedowns landed while she went three-for-zero on offense). The Mizuki blueprint vs Amorim matters here: durable volume plus composed defensive wrestling without panic entries. If Lookboonmee keeps the fight vertical and disengages after scrambles, she shrinks Amorim's preferred armbar/triangle lanes.
Model pacing tags her "Slight Fade" but not collapse—about 73% of her Round 1 striking output still shows up in Round 3. She systematically shifts targeting toward the body late (database roll-up shows a +16pt body share drift R1→R3). Amorim is tagged "Fades Late" (~51% R3 vs R1 output). If the fight is still vertical in the final round, Lookboonmee's tempo and layering win the tiebreakers.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Amorim owns two inches of height and seven inches of reach—she can win the first layer of hand-fighting and land the long straight when Lookboonmee squares up. camping at the end of that straight without angling off is how Lookboonmee eats clean head shots—Amorim stays head-heavy (north of 80% to the head by Round 3 in computed splits).
Her own Reed finish proves she can choke a reckless opponent in a scramble—against Amorim the inverse is lethal. Diving into guard after stuffing a shot or lingering in front-head invites the armbar/triangle menu (technique-index peaks on topside and guard attacks).
📋 Likely Gameplan
Jab–body–low kick sequences to shorten Amorim's base, then lateral exit after short combinations—use the 30-foot floor to break clinch cycles before rides form. First takedown defense: sprawl to hips, avoid diving guillotines, reset to center.
Rounds 2–3: elevate body share, clinch strike in short bursts, deny top monopoly. Win condition is 29–28 or 30–27 scorecards—decision equity matches eight career decision wins versus Amorim's zero pro decision victories.
🚀 Jaqueline Amorim Key Advantages
3.8 submission attempts per 15 minutes versus 0.1 for Lookboonmee is the widest gap on the stat sheet. Database timing labels Amorim an "Early Hunter"—about 78.6% of tracked sub attempts show up in Round 1. Armbar and triangle indices lead the technique board; she needs posture breaks more than she needs to win the strike tally.
When the fight hits the canvas, model summaries print hot control per round (~107 seconds vs ~43 for Lookboonmee). Career strike-origin splits are almost a caricature: Amorim's significant strikes are heavily ground-weighted while Lookboonmee lives at distance/clinch (~57%/36% vs ~19%/0%/~81%). The bout is consistent edging kickboxing versus nonlinear mat minutes.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Mizuki landed only 26 significant strikes to 62 against and still took a decision while takedowns sat 2–2—Amorim never established sustained top time. She has zero pro decision wins; if Lookboonmee replicates even 70% of that minute profile, the scoring arc collapses on the striker.
36% takedown accuracy taxes gas on failed chains. When Plan A stalls, her dataset shows more standing share in Round 3—often after she is already underwater on sig-strikes. That is the Hughes/Mizuki failure mode: wide striking deficits without rides that cash.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Feint jab and cross, crash the lead foot into body lock / singles—layer entries instead of spamming one shot. Priority on landing top or back, not "playing" open guard where triangles come alive.
Primary win lane is SUB R1–2. If entries fail, re-enter on new angles rather than trading three-minute kickboxing losses—cut the cage in the big enclosure, deny Lookboonmee the lateral reset.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Cage Dynamics
Galaxy Arena's 30-foot cage biases toward lateral resets for Lookboonmee—more runway to exit clinch cycles before rides attach—while Amorim still wants to fence-cut and compress space. Reach (68" vs 61") and height (5′3″ vs 5′1″) buy Amorim the first hand-fighting layer, but her own strike-origin data is ground-heavy (~81% career ground share) versus Lookboonmee's standing/clinch economy—geometry and statistical residence disagree unless Amorim forces the relocation early.
🎯Technical Breakdown
The bout is not “even striking + even grappling.” Lookboonmee wins the abstract kickboxing ledger on rate and accuracy (3.67 SLpM, 55% acc, 2.52 SApM) while Amorim carries the nonlinear hazard (3.8 subs/15, early submission timing, elevated TD15). Grappling composites use a blended TD defense input for Amorim where the published 0% line is a small-sample artifact—her real risk is bad entries and posture, not “zero wrestling IQ.”
🧩Key Battle Areas
Watch the first six minutes of grappling spike (≈78.6% of tracked sub-attempt skew Round 1) against Lookboonmee's 68% TD defense and scramble discipline. On the feet, Lookboonmee pivots body work late while Amorim stays head-heavy—optics on fuzzy rounds may tilt toward whoever controls tempo. Minutes 10–15 favor the striker if the fight stays vertical: ~73% Round 3 output retention vs ~51% “Fades Late” tags in the database roll-up.
🏁Final Prediction
Model headline: Lookboonmee 61% vs Amorim 39%. Primary path is Lookboonmee by decision (~42% of all simulations) via touch volume and reset IQ; live submission equity (~25% absolute) keeps Amorim's fair moneyline shorter than a pure striker/grappler gap would suggest. KO/TKO lanes stay insurance on both sides (Lookboonmee ~14% absolute, Amorim ~8%).
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: ~42% absolute • Primary chalk path for banked minutes
GOOD VALUE
Model: ~25% absolute • Early Hunter + R1 ground strike skew
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: ~48% • Sub spike keeps inside-distance live
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Overweights first-round submission variance — Amorim's spike is real but noisy for pricing the full fight.
- • Sleeping on decision equity — Lookboonmee owns eight decision wins vs Amorim's zero pro decision résumé.
- • Literal 0% TD defense headlines — UFCstats small-N artifact; blended view changes grappling comps.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Loma Lookboonmee
Banked minutes on the feet / in short clinch bursts
Attritional damage on a compromised entry (rare but live)
Opportunistic neck if Amorim overcommits (Reed template)
💥Outcome Distribution - Jaqueline Amorim
Primary win vector — armbar/triangle/back takes
Secondary — damage-on-a-dime lanes (Conejo ceiling)
Rare — no pro decision wins on résumé
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Jaqueline Amorim
- • First six minutes: Sell straight shots into chain wrestling; hunt armbar/triangle with rides.
- • Mat monopoly: Mizuki loss came from 2–2 TD parity—deny long top segments.
- • Head-heavy entries: Pair level changes with cage shrink—do not trade three-minute kickboxing deficits.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Loma Lookboonmee
- • Minute banking: +1.24 SLpM edge with cleaner accuracy keeps fuzzy rounds salvageable.
- • Body shift: Late targeting drift steals optics vs a head-hunting opponent.
- • Scramble IQ: Stuff-and-reset loops kill Amorim control economics (≈107s vs 43s control proxy).
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Strong volume-side case, but Round 1 submission spike keeps variance elevated
✅Supporting Factors
- • Lookboonmee SLpM/accuracy/minute-winning résumé pieces
- • 68% TD D + scrambled reads on recent film
- • Cardio + output retention edge into Round 3
- • Mizuki template mirrors Amorim loss archetype
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Reach 68″ vs 61″ hand-fighting for Amorim
- • 3.8 Sub/15 + Early Hunter timing in opening rounds
- • Judging variance when optics split from sig-strike totals
🏁Executive Summary
One-line read: volume bank vs early mat spike — Lookboonmee wants the full fifteen while Amorim wants the first nine minutes. The statistical spine is consistent striking minutes (3.67 SLpM, 55% accuracy, 36% clinch-touch legacy) versus a nonlinear grappling finisher (3.8 subs per 15, ~78.6% of tracked attempts in Round 1, ~81% career ground strike share). Galaxy Arena's 30-foot footprint and Lookboonmee's reset habits tilt repeated simulations toward her decision distribution, but any posture mistake feeds Amorim's submission equity faster than the strike column updates.
Prediction: Lookboonmee favored (~61%) with the cleanest path a unanimous or split decision (≈42% absolute) built on volume and scramble-safe defense; Amorim's live lane is an early subsequence (≈25% absolute) if she secures top or isolates a limb before the kickboxing ledger sets. Fair side pricing in our model centers near -156 / +156 with conviction 7/10 given Round 1 hazard density.