Luis Felipe Dias vs Yi Sak Lee
Middleweight Bout • UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo
Saturday, May 30, 2026 • 30 ft Octagon (Galaxy Arena, Macau)
Explore Detailed Fighter Profiles
Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Luis Felipe Dias
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Yi Sak Lee
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Luis Felipe Dias
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-30 | Donavon Hedrick | W | Submission (RNC) (R2, 4:37) |
| 2025-09-09 | Daniel Oliveira | W | Submission (RNC) (R1, 0:40) |
| 2025-03-22 | Helisson Cruz | W | TKO (R1, —) |
| 2024-12-07 | Luiz Cado | L | TKO (R3, 0:14) |
| 2024-09-13 | Marcin Bandel | L | Decision (UD) (R3, 5:00) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Yi Sak Lee
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-14 | Daichi Mikami | W | Submission (RNC) (R3, 4:59) |
| 2025-09-20 | Weichao Nie | W | Submission (Von Flue) (R1, 3:30) |
| 2025-02-15 | Agilan Thanigasalam | L | Submission (RNC) (R2, 2:33) |
| 2024-10-18 | Aerdake Apaer | W | TKO (G&P) (R1, 2:44) |
| 2024-07-06 | Shota Fujii | W | TKO (G&P) (R1, 3:43) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (37 vs 41) and Grappling Composite (64 vs 45). Balances overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Visual comparison of key performance metrics between both fighters
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Luis Felipe Dias Key Advantages
Dias’s career takedown pace (~6.24 per 15 minutes at 57% accuracy) dwarfs Lee’s estimated band and clears the UFC middleweight mean (~1.54) by a huge margin—functionally Hernandez-tier chain wrestling. That volume buys ride time, fence cycles, and repeated mat entries so Yi Sak has to defend sprawls and stand-ups far more often than Dias has to win kickboxing minutes. Against an opponent whose only pro loss is a rear-naked choke after grappling escalation, sustained top/back exposure is the central threat vector.
Half of Dias’s 16 wins are submissions—back-to-back DWCS rear-naked chokes (including Hedrick in R2 after a competitive R1) validate the pathway against pipeline-caliber resistance. That lines up brutally with Lee’s Rosetta-stone loss: tapped via RNC in R2 to Agilan Thanigasalam after surviving early. If Dias secures hips, layers rides, and finds the back, the same choke equity that shows up in the model’s 41% fight-level submission share is behaviorally grounded, not just a stat artifact.
The Contenders Hedrick win is the highest-signal translate: Dias absorbed a dicey optics round, then finished at 4:37 of R2—proving he can weather early resistance and still recalibrate to dominant grappling chapters. That’s the same window (minutes 3–8) where the model peaks Dias’s win share versus a finisher who wants R1 noise. Low 1.77 SLpM also helps preserve legs if Dias refuses empty kickboxing and instead invests in grip fights and re-shots.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Lee’s last five feature multiple round-one damage spikes and G&P TKOs; half of his wins are KO/TKO. Dias has two KO/TKO losses on the ledger (including a violent Cado setback)—if entries read telegraphed at a 38% striking accuracy clip, intercepting shots while Dias closes space can flip the fight before wrestling chapters open. The model places roughly a quarter of Lee’s fight-level equity in KO/TKO for that reason.
If Dias stands passively, Lee’s estimated ~3.3 SLpM band (~41 striking composite vs Dias’s 37) wins clean optics in open space—especially in a 30 ft Galaxy Arena cage where lateral resets stretch the wrestler’s pursuit tax. Dias bleeds the standing minute economically (1.77 landed vs 2.70 absorbed) until he forces clinch debt or fence traps; without deliberate cutting, the geometry shifts a few percentage points toward Yi Sak by design.
📋 Likely Gameplan
First minute cannot be a kickboxing tournament: hand-fight, collar ties, inside trips or doubles—accepting one shot to connect hips is cheaper than losing range debates outright. Feints should serve entries, not vanity volume; mixing level changes keeps Lee from timing the same intercept repeatedly off predictable rhythms highlighted in the scout packet.
On top, prioritize back takes and RNC packaging over chasing G&P damage against a foe with G&P KO wins. Every stand-up should trigger an immediate re-shot; TD15 strength is useless if Dias accepts long resets at range. Perimeter cutting matters—large-cage wrestling rewards Hernandez-style fence traps, not open-mat sprints.
🚀 Yi Sak Lee Key Advantages
Lee’s finishing DNA skews explosive: four KO/TKO wins, multiple first-round G&P demolitions, and a model that allocates ~28% of his win simulations to early KO/TKO-labeled outcomes in the opening 90-second window. The large cage buys lateral exits—if Dias respects power and stalls entries, Yi Sak stacks optics and confidence before wrestling chapters consolidate.
Estimated ~3.3 SLpM with compact power striking outpaces Dias’s 1.77 reported rate—if judges see extended neutral space, Lee should land more significant sequences while Dias hunts grips. That “open stance boxing across resets” geometry is exactly where the stylistic edge sentence in the breakdown lives: Yi Sak wins the highlights he manufactures before Dias finds the hips.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
100% of Lee’s pro losses are submissions, and Agilan’s RNC in R2 is a direct analogue to Dias’s M.O.—layered wrestling into rear strangles. Once Dias turns corners on entries, Yi Sak must defend ride cycles and deny back exposure; scrambling gifts can help (von-flue in the packet), but diving guillotines into body-lock specialists feeds the worst outcomes.
Surviving Dias means repeated sprawl-and-bounce cycles; each failed defensive sequence burns oxygen faster than Dias’s low-volume standup tax. If Lee cannot keep feet or build the wall, the same Grappling Composite gap (64 vs 45) manifests as mat returns and control debt—the Bandel decision loss on Dias’s card is the blueprint for “can’t impose wrestling = lose optics on the feet.”
📋 Likely Gameplan
Force Dias to close into counters: long jabs, step knees, and uppercuts timed on level changes. Sprawl discipline with underhooks and cross-faces beats panic-sub attempts that feed body locks. Reset to center after combos—do not linger in the pocket waiting to be collared.
Front-load damage while Dias is still solving range: the model’s peak Lee KO share clusters early, while Dias’s probability crests in R2 once his wrestling timing tightens. If hurt, avoid reckless follow-up G&P that gives Dias panic legs or front-head exposure—posture must break before diving on a wounded wrestler with eight subs.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Cage Dynamics
The Galaxy Arena’s 30-foot cage expands lateral space—early, that aids Yi Sak’s habit of creating horizontal stretch, burst combos, and resets to center before Dias can herd him to the fence. Over time, the same footprint becomes expensive for the wrestler if he chases without cutting—Dias must manufacture fence traps (Anthony Hernandez-style geometry) instead of open-mat sprints. Macro read from the breakdown: Yi Sak wins the collisions that happen at range; Dias wins chapters where feet stall and positional debt snowballs into rides and chokes.
🎯Technical Breakdown
Two differentials decide scoring: TD throughput versus striking volume. Dias’s 6.24 TD15 (57% accuracy) against Lee’s estimated ~2.2 TD15 (36% accuracy) is matchup-altering middle control—banking clinch and mat minutes while SubPer15 (1.60) doubles the MW database mean. Lee’s estimated ~3.3 SLpM and ~42% accuracy describe a forward kickboxer who wants three-to-seven explosive sequences. Dias only needs one sustained grappling chapter to rewrite optics; until then, the standing ledger (~1.77 vs ~3.3 SLpM) pressures him to invest in grips, not exchanges.
🧩Key Battle Areas
First three minutes determine how risky Dias’s entries are: if Yi Sak lands early leather, subsequent shots come under fire. Minutes 3–8 historically favor Dias’s layered wrestling (Hedrick R2 choke template) while Yi Sak’s Mikami RNC proves he can survive deep waters—surviving is not winning neutral grappling exchanges against a 6.24 TD15 profile. Grip economy in the clinch, scramble IQ (von-flue upside for Lee vs Agilan-style back takes for Dias), and fatigue divergence as sprawls stack remain the decisive levers.
🏁Final Prediction
The modal path is Dias by submission (~41% of all outcomes) through body-lock entries, rides, and RNC packaging—echoing both DWCS tape and Lee’s lone RNC loss. KO/TKO equity for Dias (~10%) stays live via clinch damage, while decision (~12%) covers Bandel-style wrestling stalls. Yi Sak’s biggest aggregate share is KO/TKO (~24% fight-level) from early power and G&P, with submission (~8%) tied to late opportunism and decision (~5%) only if he denies back exposure for 15 minutes without getting starched—unlikely stylistically.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 41% fight-level | highest single-method share on the card — aligns with DWCS RNC proof and Agilan loss map.
GOOD VALUE
Model: 24% fight-level burst lane — R1/R2 intercept + G&P ramps before wrestling chapters consolidate.
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: ~83% inside distance (24% KO + 8% sub for Lee, 10% KO + 41% sub for Dias, overlapping chaos) — still finish-heavy priors for a debut MW pairing.
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Public leans grappling certainty – may over-juice Dias without UFCstats rows for either athlete.
- • Underrates Lee burst scripts – 30 ft cage + KO/TKO clustering in R1 still carries ~24% fight mass.
- • Implied strike volume parity – Lee likely wins open-space minutes until TDs land—cards can look closer early.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Luis Felipe Dias
Bandel-style scoring if wrestling stalls
Clinch strikes + follow-up damage
Primary lane — RNC bank vs choke-failure prior
💥Outcome Distribution - Yi Sak Lee
Early power + G&P ramps (best Lee aggregate share)
Thin — requires 15 minutes without wrestling takeover
Scramble necks / late opportunistic subs
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Yi Sak Lee
- • Opening 90 seconds: Burst TKOs + G&P lanes peak here (~28% of Lee wins in scout sims).
- • Lateral space: 30 ft resets before Dias can fence-trap.
- • Intercept counters: Punish naked entries while hips stay disconnected.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Luis Felipe Dias
- • Chain shots: Mat returns + ride stacking flip optics after R1 volatility.
- • Choke threat: Bank Agilan-symmetry RNC equity (8 sub wins).
- • Cage craft: Cut lanes, don’t chase—large cage taxes naked pursuit.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Strong stylistic overlap, tempered by debut + estimated Lee metrics
✅Supporting Factors
- • TD15 6.24 vs ~2.2 est. — elite pace + 58% est. TDDef for Yi Sak
- • Agilan RNC loss maps to Dias RNC win bank
- • DWCS Hedrick validates pipeline-level wrestling
- • Control-time paths if entries land early in R2
⚠️Risk Factors
- • No official UFCstats rows yet — priors may shift fast
- • Dias negative standing exchange (1.77 vs 2.70 SApM)
- • Yi Sak early KO surges before grips form
🏁Executive Summary
This middleweight debut pairing is a geometry fight: Yi Sak Lee needs the first meaningful collisions at range—his estimated striking volume and documented R1/G&P spikes give him the sport’s highest-variance minutes. Luis Felipe Dias only needs one sustained wrestling chapter: 6.24 TD15, eight career subs, and back-to-back DWCS rear-naked chokes line up with Lee’s lone pro blemish (Agilan’s RNC). The model lands near a 63/37 split (fair ~−170 / +170) with submission (~41% of all outcomes) as Dias’s dominant labeled path, KO/TKO (~24%) as Lee’s top aggregate share, and thin decision mass on both sides until UFC metrics replace regional estimates.
Prediction: Luis Felipe Dias by submission (modal) — fence traps, re-shots, and RNC packaging leverage Yi Sak’s choke-loss prior; Lee’s live upset remains early KO/TKO (~24% fight-level) before Dias connects hips. Confidence 7/10 until UFC ingests both athletes into the database.