Yadong Song vs Deiveson Figueiredo
Men's Bantamweight Bout • UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo
Saturday, May 30, 2026 • 30 ft Octagon (Galaxy Arena, Macau)
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Yadong Song
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Deiveson Figueiredo
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Yadong Song
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-24 | Sean O'Malley | L | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
| 2025-02-22 | Henry Cejudo | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-12-07 | Chris Gutierrez | W | TKO - Punches (R2, 2:42) |
| 2024-03-09 | Petr Yan | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-04-29 | Ricky Simon | W | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Deiveson Figueiredo
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-24 | Umar Nurmagomedov | L | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
| 2025-09-13 | Montel Jackson | W | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-08-03 | Cory Sandhagen | L | TKO - Injury (R1, 0:50) |
| 2024-08-10 | Marlon Vera | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-12-16 | Petr Yan | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (45 vs 43) and Grappling Composite (41 vs 40). Balances overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills for this matchup.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Visual comparison of key performance metrics between both fighters
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Yadong Song Key Advantages
Song's 4.42 significant strikes landed per minute vs Figueiredo's 2.63 defines the broadcast rhythm—he pushes the metronome and can force the former flyweight champion into low-output, reactive minutes. The database mirror is stark: ~5.6 vs ~3.0 strikes per minute in the computed roll-up with Song tagged as the higher-cadence athlete. In a 30-foot cage, that volume buys resets and lateral disengage if he refuses to chase squared-up—exactly the geometry that makes "range economics" the base case over 25 minutes.
55% strike defense vs 49% helps Song survive phone-booth exchanges without always needing a hail-mary swing, and the bigger anchor is takedown denial: 73% TD defense vs 57% means Figueiredo's best path is chained entries and second/third efforts—not one clean blast double. That matches the scouting report: Song denies layer-one shots and keeps posture, while Figueiredo's offensive minutes are the stress test (154 tracked clinch TD attempts on file for Fig vs 42 for Song—volume vs selective timing).
Song isn't just a fast starter on paper—his modeled output curve steepens into the middle acts (Round 3 output ~1.44× his Round 1 proxy), and he carries a fresh 25-minute reference (Ricky Simon) that proves he can bank minutes when the fight gets slow and tactical. Cardio scoring on the breakdown nudges to Song (56 vs 52) for sustained SLpM, defensive wrestling, and youth in a division where pace taxes compound—especially against an opponent a decade older with more burst-and-clutch variance.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Figueiredo's 53% striking accuracy (and ~50.8% distance-accuracy texture in the advanced roll-up) means he can win "pretty" minutes even while losing raw volume. If Song swings into inefficient pockets, judges may favor the cleaner connects—especially in swing rounds where damage snapshots outweigh cumulative ticks. Both Yan and Sandhagen-style film already sketched parts of this failure mode for each man: elite disruption, length, and counter rhythm remain the division's ceiling tests.
Figueiredo isn't a blanket—he's a submission artist with 1.2 subs per 15 minutes and an attempt clock skewed early (more than half of logged sub windows in Round 1). Prolonged head-inside scrambles, guillotine-adjacent textures, and body-lock rides are where zip codes change. Song's offensive sub sample is tiny; if this becomes a neck fight instead of a striking fight, equity flips fast.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Song should rehearse the big-cage math: jab to calf or low kick, compound strings in space, then exit on angles—don't follow blindly into overhand counters. He owns three inches of height; Figueiredo owns one inch of reach—this is not a free jab funnel, but disciplined circling tilts minutes toward the volume athlete when resets stay honest.
Stuff hips on first shots, split ties before the clinch fossilizes, and treat minutes four and five as bank-touch opportunities—not desperation wrestling into guillotine lanes. Championship-era notes flag Song with a slight championship-round fade signal in the model (not a firm prediction), but a reason to avoid over-pacing early against a patient counter-grappler who can spike late if reads sharpen.
🚀 Deiveson Figueiredo Key Advantages
Figueiredo's 53% striking accuracy vs Song's 43% is the clean counter to raw volume—he lands prettier per throw and stays live in minutes he loses on the stat ticker. Advanced tables echo it (~50.8% distance accuracy vs ~40.4%), which matters most in a patient, reset-heavy kickboxing phase where optics can swing judges.
This is not striker vs blanket—it's pace vs pockets. Figueiredo's 1.61 takedowns per 15 minutes and 1.2 submissions per 15 stack with higher clinch+ground strike share (~17% of meaningful offense in the advanced roll-up vs ~8% for Song). Control seconds lean Fig when grappling exchanges happen (~45 vs ~39 in the model fields)—directional, not a canyon, but enough to steal close rounds with rides and top optics if Song's base loosens.
Computed pacing fields still flag meaningful late output in Figueiredo's championship samples—relevant in a booked 25-minute fight when he survives early tempo. Pair that with an "Elite" durability tag in the same engine: he stays counter-dangerous even when buzzed, which keeps chaos equity alive deep.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
If Song layers jab-cross-low kick on a loop and refuses to over-track, the 30-foot cage becomes a reset factory. Figueiredo's low-output pace tag (~3.0 strikes/min in computed data, 2.63 SLpM on the UFCstats row) means judges can lose him in 30–40% swing rounds unless damage, control, or submission threat clears fog.
Song's 73% takedown defense turns Fig's wrestling into a cardio investment. Empty re-shot chains against a fresh sprawl burn the very bursts Fig needs for neck attacks. Failed sequences also hand Song rhythm minutes where volume differentials widen on the scorecards.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Probe with feints, lure Song onto long counters, and crash into body locks / trips when hands get heavy. Technique-rate fields tilt guillotine and body-lock textures—front-head violence matters as much as vanilla doubles.
Fig cannot out-tick Song in honest open mat minute trades; he needs bursts—counter hurt shots, clinch rides, neck attacks—or top time that makes rounds look decisive. Late output signatures from title samples stay relevant in a scheduled 25-minute fight: survive the pace tax, then hunt one clean chaos window.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Cage Dynamics
The 30-foot octagon is tactically double-edged: extra reset space helps Song circle, layer kicks, and refuse squared chases—exactly the habit that keeps Figueiredo from shrinking the floor. If Song over-tracks without cutting, the same large floor becomes a counter lab where compact feints crash into overhands, body locks, and front-head entries. Geometry tilts toward the disciplined volume fighter; discipline is the operational word.
🎯Technical Breakdown
The fight lives where UFCstats and Supabase agree: Song presses pace and denial—4.42 SLpM, 55% strike defense, and 73% takedown defense—while Figueiredo brings surgical connections (53% accuracy) plus meaningful grappling (1.61 TD15, 1.2 subs per 15). Spatially, roughly 86% of Song's meaningful strike contexts are at distance vs ~75% for Fig, with Fig carrying ~17% of his offense below the shoulders (clinch + mat). It is pace plus denial versus precision plus scrambles—not a simple striker vs wrestler caricature.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Watch three leverage points: open-mat volume vs counter optics, first-layer takedown defense vs re-shot chains, and early submission sequencing (Fig's attempt clock skews heavily toward Round 1) vs Song's scramble habits. Shared ghosts—Petr Yan decisions, Sandhagen-length headaches—bound expectations: neither man is untested, but each carries known failure modes against movers and elite counter punchers, which is why minute-to-minute scoring will swing on who owns the outside rebuild after every exchange.
🏁Final Prediction
Across 100 synthetic paths weighted by volume deltas, TD chain success, submission hazard, and five-round entropy, Song sits near a 62% win share with Figueiredo at 38%. The modal script has Song banking minutes in space (~34% absolute decision equity), while Fig's live upset runway clusters on transitional violence (~14% submission absolute, ~10% KO) and narrower decision lanes (~14%) when rounds look like his grappling—not Song's tempo.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model absolute: ~34% | Aligns with pace + denial base case
GOOD VALUE
Model absolute: ~14% | Early sequencing + neck danger
SLIGHT VALUE
Durable vets + high decision weight | Monitor sub spike
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Submission skin in the game – Books can underestimate Fig's early neck equity vs Song's sprawl.
- • Accuracy optics – 53% vs 43% landed precision can flip swing rounds even when ticks favor Song.
- • Large-cage narrative – Space helps Song only when footwork stays disciplined; chasing erases the edge.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Yadong Song
Touch scoring with disciplined outside rebuilds
Accumulated damage when reads tighten mid-fight
Rare but live if scrambles go submission-shaped
💥Outcome Distribution - Deiveson Figueiredo
Needs rounds to look like control + clean optics
Counter bursts and pocket power spikes
Early sequencing + neck rides off level changes
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Deiveson Figueiredo
- • Rounds 1–2: Early submission sequencing and guillotine lanes off level changes.
- • Counter windows: Punish lazy entries with straights and over-the-top counters (68″ reach).
- • Clinch/mat spikes: Chain wrestling to steal optics when Song's base loosens.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Yadong Song
- • Open mat: Jab–cross–kick strings with angle exits; avoid squared chases.
- • Defense first: 73% TDD + disengage before clinch freezes reset wrestling.
- • Championship minutes: Bank touches in R4–5 unless a clean hurt opens a finish lane.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Strong lean on volume + denial; sub variance caps conviction
✅Supporting Factors
- • +68% SLpM cadence edge in the UFCstats row (4.42 vs 2.63)
- • Strike defense (+6 pts) and TD defense (+16 pts)
- • Youth + five-round proof (Simón) vs decade-older opponent
- • 30 ft cage favors resets when cutting is disciplined
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Early submission sequencing and guillotine textures
- • +10% striking accuracy + counter aesthetics
- • Chain wrestling if Song over-chases or squares entries
🏁Executive Summary
Expect Song to own many clean minutes in the open cage—touch volume, ringside kicking lanes, and reset wrestling that keeps Figueiredo from chaining sequential control. Figueiredo's realistic lane is burst sequences: counter hurt, clinch ride, neck attack. Over repeated simulations that spike wins a meaningful chunk, but not a majority of universes. Hero line for the card: range economics vs. transitional violence—Song's volume is the base case; Figueiredo's grappling is the chaos tax.
Prediction: Song by decision leads the board (~34% absolute) inside a ~62% aggregate win share; Figueiredo's clearest live lanes are submission (~14% absolute) and KO counter bursts (~10%). Conviction stays at 7/10 because one bad posture frame can flip the scorecards against a finisher this dangerous.