Timmy Cuamba vs Benardo Sopaj
Men's Flyweight Bout • UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa
Saturday, May 16, 2026 • 25 ft Octagon (Small Cage · UFC APEX geometry)
Some official listings show higher weights; this page analyzes the matchup as a men's flyweight bout. Elo metrics are omitted by design.
Explore Detailed Fighter Profiles
Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Timmy Cuamba
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Benardo Sopaj
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Timmy Cuamba
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-15 | Chang Ho Lee | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-04-12 | Roberto Romero | W | TKO (R2, —) |
| 2024-06-08 | Lucas Almeida | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-02-10 | Bolaji Oki | L | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-02-03 | Michael Stack | W | TKO (R2, —) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Benardo Sopaj
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-11 | Ricky Turcios | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-03-16 | Vinicius Oliveira | L | TKO (R3, —) |
| 2023-12-16 | Geovane Vargas | W | TKO (R1, —) |
| 2023-02-18 | Julien Lopez | W | TKO (R1, —) |
| 2022-08-20 | Karlen Minasyan | W | TKO (R2, —) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (60.6 vs 65.8) and Grappling Composite (47.2 vs 71.1). Balances overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Visual comparison of key performance metrics between both fighters
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
Fight Details Analysis
Deeper context beyond the counting stats—environment, résumé translation, and the “fight within the fight.”
What the tape implies
Sopaj is the more layered offensive athlete on paper: he lands with better volume and accuracy and can ride top pressure or threaten submissions off regional form. Cuamba, meanwhile, is built to spoil—fewer strikes thrown, fewer absorbed, better defensive percentages. Translation question: can Cuamba's efficiency survive Sopaj's pace when the cage shrinks?
Environment vs. reach
Reach favors the man who owns open space. The 25 ft Octagon trims that luxury—each reset window is shorter, so cutting beats chasing. Cuamba must pivot early; Sopaj must avoid following in straight lines so he does not walk onto straight shots.
Résumé signal vs. noise
Sopaj's stop-heavy regional run proves finishing instincts but not automatic UFC blowouts—his Turcios decision shows he can solve scramblers, while the Oliveira loss flags danger in chaotic strike entries. Cuamba has already banked multiple UFC distances and rebounds, suggesting he will not fold the first time shots miss.
Grappling as a striking weapon
Even failed takedowns can win optics: they narrow stance, dull kicks, and force exits toward the fence. Cuamba has to punish not only completions but naked level changes; otherwise the threat alone shifts the boxing battle toward Sopaj.
Non-statistical read
Both men enter with positive psychological momentum—Cuamba proving he can adjust after early UFC setbacks, Sopaj proving he can rebound after a dramatic debut KO. Narratively, Sopaj can afford to win ugly; Cuamba probably needs to win clean on the eye test if the fight is close. Live look: whoever owns the first round geography (center vs fence) likely validates their pre-fight betting price.
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Timmy Cuamba Key Advantages
Cuamba is the taller, longer athlete on paper (5'9" with a 71" reach vs 5'6" / 66"). That matters most when he can stay on his outside hip, ride the center line, and let straight punches, intercepting knees, and long kicks land as Sopaj tries to crash distance. If he can keep this a kicking and long-boxing assignment rather than a phone-booth fight, his statistical and visual advantages compound.
Cuamba absorbs fewer significant strikes per minute (3.58 vs 4.88) and carries the better striking defense rate (57% vs 49%). That is his cleanest rebuttal to Sopaj's higher output: if he can turn aggression into misses and counter windows, the fight looks closer on the cards than a pure volume scan suggests. Against a hittable pressurer, defensive discipline is a legitimate scoring path.
Four UFC trips matter for pacing, judging optics, and handling adversity. Cuamba dropped his first two inside the Octagon, then rebounded with a Romero stoppage and a clean Lee decision—evidence of adjustment rather than plateau. His resume says he can survive close minutes and still find ways to win tactically; that is the lane most likely if this reaches 15 minutes.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
The worst version for Cuamba is long stretches with his back near the fence defending clinch rides, level changes, and mat returns. Even stuffed shots can drain his output and make Sopaj look like the dictator of geography. In a 25 ft cage, there is less runway to reset—so reach becomes conditional rather than automatic.
His modest 2.77 SLpM profile means he usually needs clear, visible moments—not a crowd-pleasing volume edge—to take tight rounds. If Sopaj pushes the pace and lands while crowding, Cuamba's counters must read obvious on TV. Surviving without doing visible damage is a classic way to lose 29-28 skirmishes even when defense looks competent.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Establish the jab early, use teeps and low kicks to slow entries, and—critically—circle before his back finds the fence. He should favor short combinations with immediate exits instead of extended pocket trades. Center control plus lateral motion is what converts reach from a trivia stat into scoring damage.
Knees up the middle, sprawl-and-fist beats, and timing uppercuts on predictable shots give him his most credible highlight-reel equity. The Romero win already showed he can capitalize when opponents dive recklessly; Sopaj will likely offer similar invitations if he over-chases without feints.
🚀 Benardo Sopaj Key Advantages
Sopaj lands more often and more accurately (4.24 SLpM at 56% vs 2.77 at 44%). Across three rounds that gap can look enormous on FightMetric sheets, especially when he leads the dance. His best sequences usually couple flurries with forward steps that hide upcoming clinch or takedown entries, which means Cuamba cannot simply block and hope—he must reposition or pay.
The takedown volume (2.53 per 15) plus elite accuracy (71%) is the matchup's decisive structural edge. Even when shots fail, the threat narrows Cuamba's stance, dulls his kicks, and invites reactive footwork that bleeds time. Slight TD defense edge (76% vs 72%) helps Sopaj win exchanges where both athletes respect the grappling layer.
Ten of twelve pro wins coming inside the distance tells you how Sopaj prefers to bank equity. Pair that violence profile with a 25 ft Octagon—where there is less space to circle—and his pressure formula becomes easier to sustain. Even a Turcios-style decision proves he can go 15 against awkward scramblers when the finish does not arrive.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
If Sopaj chases recklessly in straight lines without cutting the cage, Cuamba's reach and timing sharpen dramatically. Boxing from too far outside turns him into a target for straight shots while he swings at air. The Oliveira loss also showed how chaotic, high-pace exchanges can expose him late when entries become predictable.
Absorbing 4.88 significant strikes per minute with a 49% defensive rate is workable when you are the hammer, but it is leverage for a patient counter fighter. Impatient bursts after failed takedowns are precisely when Cuamba's knees and straights matter most.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Pressure immediately but responsibly: attack the body, use punches to mask clinch entries, and constantly threaten level changes so Cuamba cannot settle into a kicking rhythm. Every sequence should end with Cuamba sliding backward or turning—forcing defensive reactions is as valuable as landing flush in this matchup.
Banking a hard Round 1 matters: it denies Cuamba the calm reads he wants and shrinks later openings for counters. Mix clinch strikes with rides along the fence, threaten inside trips, and turn minutes into attrition even when TDs stall. The more this becomes a scramble-and-pocket fight, the more Sopaj's skill stack trends toward overwhelming.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Cage Dynamics
Reach advantages love spacious geometry, but this booking unfolds in the compact 25 ft Octagon—exactly where pressure, clinch entries, and reactive shots spike in value. Cuamba still has the longer weapons, yet he has fewer clean steps to reset once Sopaj begins cutting the cage. If you see Cuamba bending toward the fence after only two exchanges, Sopaj is likely winning the geography battle even before wrestling lands. Conversely, if Cuamba owns the center for long stretches, the fight tilts toward his counterstriking matrix.
🎯Technical Breakdown
Sopaj owns the offensive striking delta (4.24 SLpM at 56% accuracy) and the decisive grappling efficiency gap (2.53 TD15 with 71% accuracy vs Cuamba's 31%). Those layers stack: forward pressure hides shots, and shots steal rhythm from a lower-volume striker. Cuamba's best rebuttal is defensive—absorbing fewer shots with better strike defense—which keeps him live in swing rounds if he can force inefficient charges. The central tension is whether defense and counters can outweigh pressure plus grappling threat before judges default to the fighter moving forward.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Watch the opening five minutes: Sopaj's historical danger window hits early, while Cuamba's reads sharpen once pace stabilizes. Body work is the hidden swing factor—Sopaj can undermine a tall fighter's movement, whereas Cuamba's teeps and jabs to the midsection slow level changes. Wrestling does not need to dominate every minute to matter; the threat alone can mute kicks, narrow stance, and invite straight retreat lines that feed clinch sequences. Judging may hinge on whether clean long-range snapshots outshine heavier volume and fence control bursts.
🏁Final Prediction
Model anchor: Benardo Sopaj wins roughly 62 of 100 simulations, blending pressure knockouts, attritional TKOs, and competitive decisions when Timmy Cuamba survives the early storm. Cuamba's 38% cluster is built on disciplined distance management and counter optics. The most likely play-by-play is Sopaj marching forward with layered offense, mixing body shots and clinch bursts, while Cuamba periods of success stay centered on straight shots and intercepting knees. Officially, expect a Sopaj decision with a real secondary line on a Round 2/3 TKO if defensive exits erode.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 32% finish equity via pressure damage
GOOD VALUE
Model: 22% path via clean range optics
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 48% — Cuamba extends, Sopaj finishes
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Market may overweight reach narrative – Small cage mutes pure distance upside without lateral discipline.
- • Finishing skew – Sopaj's regional KOs do not always translate to UFC attrition targets like Cuamba.
- • Line moves on wrestling perception – Even stuffed attempts can tilt optics if forward pressure is heavy.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Timmy Cuamba
Clean counters + disciplined footwork on the cards
Knees and straights punishing reckless entries
Limited historical submission offense
💥Outcome Distribution - Benardo Sopaj
Activity + grappling threat bank swing rounds
Pocket pressure and cumulative damage sequences
Secondary lane if mat work opens neck or choke
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Benardo Sopaj
- • Minutes 0–7: Explosive striking flurries layered with clinch and shots.
- • Cage cutting: Deny resets before Cuamba finds his range reads.
- • Body assault: Steal movement from the longer man early.
🎯Survival → Adjustment - Timmy Cuamba
- • Stay off the fence: Lateral exits beat linear retreats every time.
- • Patience: Let Sopaj punch himself into counters instead of grinding pockets.
- • R3 clarity: If damage stays low, timing should improve—capitalise with straight shots.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Solid Sopaj lean — reach + defense keep Cuamba live
✅Supporting Factors
- • Layered offense: higher SLpM, better accuracy, wrestling threat
- • 71% takedown accuracy inside a shortened Octagon
- • Finishing résumé plus proven rebound after UFC debut loss
- • Can win messy minutes on aggression even without clean TDs
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Cuamba +5" reach with superior strike defense
- • Counter knees when entries lack disguise
- • Opponent riding W2 momentum and deeper UFC round data
🏁Executive Summary
This is a competitive flyweight crossroads fight with a clear structural lean to Benardo Sopaj: sharper offensive striking numbers, a massive takedown-accuracy edge, and a violence profile that pairs well with UFC APEX-sized cages. Timmy Cuamba still brings measurable answers—height, reach, cleaner defensive metrics, more UFC reps, and improving form after reversing an 0-2 Octagon start. If he keeps his back off the fence and makes Sopaj pay for naked pressure, the bout becomes a tight judge's exercise. If not, Sopaj's layered offense should crowd the scorecards or force a late standing stoppage.
Prediction: Sopaj by decision with a live KO/TKO hedge in the second half of the fight; model fair price near -163 with Cuamba's fair line near +163 and meaningful upset equity on counter damage.