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UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa — Las Vegas

UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa Poster - UFC Fight Analytics
Saturday, May 16, 2026
Las Vegas, Nevada, United States
Meta APEX
⚡ Upcoming Event4 Fights🏆 0 Title Fights
Main Card: Paramount+
Prelims: Paramount+
Start Time: 6:00 PM ET
Start Time by Timezone
Times are estimated; Early Prelims ~2h, Prelims ~2h, Main Card ~2h. Subject to change.
PT (Local)
Las Vegas (PT shown)
Early
2:00 PM
Prelims
3:00 PM
Main
5:00 PM
ET
Eastern US/Canada
Early
5:00 PM
Prelims
6:00 PM
Main
8:00 PM
BST
United Kingdom / Ireland
Early
10:00 PM
Prelims
11:00 PM
Main
1:00 AM (Sun)
CET
Central Europe
Early
11:00 PM
Prelims
12:00 AM (Sun)
Main
2:00 AM (Sun)
AEST
Australia (East)
Early
9:00 AM (Sun)
Prelims
10:00 AM (Sun)
Main
12:00 PM (Sun)
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UFC Fight Night Las Vegas: Full Card Analytics & Predictions

UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa — Meta APEX, Las Vegas — May 16, 2026

Patience vs. power — that's the main event in a sentence. English featherweight contender Arnold Allen (20-4, 11-3 UFC) is a technician who wins the rounds you don't notice: 64% of his UFC victories come by decision, built on controlled distance and defensive intelligence. Melquizael Costa (26-7, 7-2 UFC) is the opposite — 100% of his UFC wins by knockout. Every single one. At the Meta APEX in Las Vegas on May 16, 2026, something has to give.

The Paramount+ card also features Vieira vs. Cavalcanti at bantamweight, Ardelean vs. Viana at strawweight, and Barez vs. Gurule at flyweight. AI-powered analytics cover every bout with best available odds and full card breakdowns.

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What is UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa?

UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa is an MMA event on May 16, 2026, at the Meta APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada. The five-round featherweight main event is a classic style clash: Arnold Allen (20-4, 11-3 UFC) is the English technician who outpoints you over 25 minutes with craft and intelligence, while Melquizael Costa (26-7, 7-2 UFC) is a Brazilian knockout machine — all seven of his UFC wins have ended with someone on the canvas. Allen needs to survive the early storm; Costa needs to land before the scorecards decide. The event airs on Paramount+ at 6:00 PM ET. The undercard features Vieira vs. Cavalcanti at bantamweight, Ardelean vs. Viana at strawweight, and Barez vs. Gurule at flyweight.

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What are the predictions for Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa?

The main event comes down to a simple question: can Allen survive the danger zone? His decision-heavy style (64% of UFC wins) relies on accumulating rounds with smart striking, but Costa's 100% KO rate in the UFC means every exchange carries knockout risk. If Allen can weather the first two rounds and establish his jab, the fight should trend his way as Costa's output typically drops in later rounds. The undercard includes compelling matchups where our model identifies potential value vs. market odds. Every fight below includes AI predictions, best available odds, and detailed breakdowns.

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How to watch UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa and what time does it start?

UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa takes place Friday, May 16, 2026. Main card at 6:00 PM ET (3:00 PM PT / 11:00 PM GMT / 8:00 AM AEST Sunday) on Paramount+. Prelims start roughly two hours earlier, also on Paramount+. The Meta APEX in Las Vegas hosts the action.

Main Event — Featherweight

Allen vs. Costa

Allen's patient, decision-heavy consistency (20-4) faces the ultimate test in Costa (26-7), whose 100% UFC KO rate means every exchange could end the night. Classic craft-vs-power featherweight clash.

Co-Feature — Bantamweight

Vieira vs. Cavalcanti

Veteran Ketlen Vieira (15-5) faces the fast-rising Jacqueline Cavalcanti (10-1) — a bantamweight clash that could reshape the women's 135-pound rankings. Cavalcanti's momentum is real, but Vieira's experience at the highest level is the equalizer.

Undercard Spotlight

Ardelean vs. Viana & Barez vs. Gurule

Alice Ardelean (11-7) meets Polyana Viana (13-8) at strawweight, while Daniel Barez (17-7) takes on Luis Gurule (10-3) at flyweight to round out a competitive Las Vegas card.

📊Analysis Reliability Framework

Our analytical model considers UFC experience as one of several factors for optimal predictions. While we can analyze any fight, fighters with 5+ UFC bouts provide more comprehensive data for our statistical modeling. This doesn't diminish the quality of our analysis for newer fighters - it's simply one criterion we factor into our confidence assessments.

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High Risk (**)

<3 UFC Bouts

Limited UFC data available. Analysis relies more heavily on external sources and pre-UFC performance patterns.

🟡

Moderate Risk (*)

3-4 UFC Bouts

Meaningful UFC sample size with good analytical foundation. Reliable insights with solid confidence levels.

🟢

Optimal Data

5+ UFC Bouts

Comprehensive statistical foundation enabling highest confidence analysis and predictive accuracy.

Note: All fights receive thorough analysis regardless of UFC experience levels. This framework simply helps calibrate confidence in our predictions.

UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa Fights, Analytics & Predictions

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We display the best available odds for each fighter to maximize value. Preference is given to BetOnline when available; otherwise, we select the highest‑value line and show the sportsbook and implied probability (I.P %).

🏆 Main Event
🟢
Arnold Allen
Featherweight
VS
Market Odds
...vs...
No picks yet
Melquizael Costa
🟢
Ketlen Vieira
Bantamweight
VS
Market Odds
...vs...
No picks yet
Jacqueline Cavalcanti
🟡
Alice Ardelean
Strawweight
VS
Market Odds
...vs...
No picks yet
Polyana Viana
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Daniel Barez
Flyweight
VS
Market Odds
...vs...
No picks yet
Luis Gurule

Model Probabilities vs Market Odds Summary

FightFighter AModel Prob AMarket Odds AImplied Prob AFighter BModel Prob BMarket Odds BImplied Prob BValue
Allen vs Costa🟢Arnold Allen50.0%N/A—Melquizael Costa50.0%N/A—
Costa +50.0%
Vieira vs Cavalcanti🟢Ketlen Vieira50.0%N/A—Jacqueline Cavalcanti50.0%N/A—
Cavalcanti +50.0%
Ardelean vs Viana🟡Alice Ardelean50.0%N/A—Polyana Viana50.0%N/A—
Viana +50.0%
Barez vs Gurule🟡Daniel Barez50.0%N/A—Luis Gurule50.0%N/A—
Gurule +50.0%

Event Discussion

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