This matchup is off the card (reported withdrawal). Analysis below reflects the original booking. Bukauskas is now scheduled opposite Christian Edwards — see the replacement page for the active bout.
Modestas Bukauskas vs Rodolfo Bellato
Men's Light Heavyweight Bout • UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa
Saturday, May 16, 2026 • 25ft Octagon (Small Cage)
Explore Detailed Fighter Profiles
Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Modestas Bukauskas
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Rodolfo Bellato
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Modestas Bukauskas
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2026 | Nikita Krylov | L | KO/TKO (R3, 4:57) |
| Sep 6, 2025 | Paul Craig | W | KO/TKO (Elbow) (R1, 5:00) |
| May 10, 2025 | Ion Cutelaba | W | Decision (SD) (R3) |
| Feb 22, 2025 | Raffael Cerqueira | W | KO/TKO (R1, 2:12) |
| Jul 27, 2024 | Marcin Prachnio | W | Submission (R3, 3:12) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Rodolfo Bellato
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2026 | Luke Fernandez | W | KO/TKO (R1, 2:42) |
| Sep 27, 2025 | Navajo Stirling | L | Decision (UD) (R3) |
| Jun 14, 2025 | Paul Craig | NC | No Contest (R1, 4:59) |
| Feb 8, 2025 | Jimmy Crute | D | Decision (MD) (R3) |
| Dec 2, 2023 | Ihor Potieria | W | KO/TKO (R2, 4:17) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (56.0 vs 68.0) and Grappling Composite (40.0 vs 48.0). Bellato's elite striking accuracy (60%) drives his composite advantage, while Bukauskas' switch stance adds value not fully captured in raw metrics.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Bukauskas' 10:30 average fight duration vs Bellato's 7:30 signals a conditioning advantage in deep championship rounds.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Bellato's striking dominance gives him a slight edge overall, while Bukauskas' cardio provides a late-round balancing factor.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Visual comparison of key performance metrics between both fighters
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Modestas Bukauskas Key Advantages
Bukauskas has navigated 12 UFC appearances against elite opposition including Paul Craig, Ion Cutelaba, and Nikita Krylov, building a 4-fight win streak before the Krylov loss. That volume of octagon experience — in-fight adjustments, pace management, cage positioning, and reading opponents mid-exchange — represents a significant competitive edge over Bellato, who has just 5 UFC bouts with inconsistent results (2-1-1 plus one NC).
Bukauskas' switch stance is a genuine equalizer. By attacking from both sides he disrupts Bellato's timing patterns and prevents the rhythm that makes his 60% accuracy so dangerous. Against orthodox opponents Bellato reads angles and sets up combinations instinctively; against a switch hitter who changes stance mid-exchange, those reads become significantly harder. This switch stance versatility was instrumental in his split decision win over Ion Cutelaba, another forward-pressure specialist.
Despite Bellato's elite accuracy, Bukauskas absorbs 1.81 fewer strikes per minute (4.05 vs 5.86 SApM). Over a potential 15 minutes that equates to 27+ fewer clean shots — a meaningful durability edge. Bukauskas' 50% StrDef keeps him competitive defensively, and his switch stance adds further utility by continuously changing the angle of incoming strikes, making Bellato's combinations harder to land cleanly even when they connect.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Bellato's 5.37 SLpM at 60% accuracy generates 3.22 effective strikes per minute — 2.37x Bukauskas' 1.36 (3.24 × 42%). In any prolonged pocket exchange, Bellato is landing clean at a dramatically higher rate. If Bukauskas gets drawn into sustained brawling rather than using his Switch stance to maintain angles, Bellato's superior precision makes every exchange deeply disadvantageous.
Seven of Bellato's 13 career wins (54%) come in Round 1. If he can implement his high-output game before Bukauskas settles into his switch-stance rhythm, the fight could be over before experience becomes decisive. The compact 25-foot Apex cage reduces Bellato's required entry distance, amplifying his R1 threat window and limiting Bukauskas' ability to use footwork and angles to reset.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Bukauskas must use stance transitions to continuously disrupt Bellato's targeting. By mixing orthodox and southpaw attack patterns he forces Bellato to recalibrate his combination entries with every stance change. Lateral movement combined with oblique kicks from different stances will chip away at Bellato's accuracy while limiting his ability to load up for power shots — the same approach that neutralized Ion Cutelaba's explosive forward pressure over three rounds.
Bukauskas' 10:30 average fight duration vs Bellato's 7:30 signals a significant conditioning advantage in later rounds. Bellato has only 2 of 13 wins in Round 3, and his loss to Navajo Stirling showed clear vulnerability in decision-paced fights. By surviving the first five minutes and gradually imposing a measured tempo — using his cardio composite (60.0 vs 55.0) and octagon experience — Bukauskas can turn a Bellato-favored early fight into a Bukauskas-favored late fight.
🚀 Rodolfo Bellato Key Advantages
Bellato's striking output is exceptional by LHW standards. His 60% accuracy — nearly 20 percentage points above Bukauskas' 42% — means he lands clean on 6 of every 10 strikes thrown. Generating 3.22 effective strikes per minute (5.37 × 0.60) vs Bukauskas' 1.36, "Trator" creates cumulative damage at more than twice the rate. This kind of striking efficiency is rare even among elite finishers and represents a fundamental structural advantage in any exchange.
With 94% TD defense Bellato can confidently keep the fight standing where his striking dominates. Bukauskas' 0.26 takedowns per 15 minutes is among the lowest in the division — he rarely shoots, and when he does Bellato's defensive wrestling shuts it down. This effectively eliminates the grappling dimension and forces a pure striking contest that overwhelmingly favors Bellato's superior output and accuracy.
Bellato has finished 12 of 13 career wins — 8 by KO/TKO and 4 by submission. His "Trator" moniker reflects his style: relentless forward pressure that grinds opponents down before ending fights emphatically. Against Bukauskas, who absorbs 4.05 strikes per minute, Bellato's power combined with elite volume creates a realistic stoppage path at any point in the fight. His recent TKO of Luke Fernandez in 2:42 demonstrated his finishing instincts remain sharp.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Bellato has only 1 decision win in 17 professional fights (6%), while Bukauskas has 5 decision wins and 12 UFC fights of scorecards experience. If Bukauskas can neutralize Bellato's output through switch-stance disruption and survive to the championship rounds, the IQ gap in managing rounds becomes decisive. Bellato's draw with Crute and loss to Stirling both went to the judges — environments where his limited experience is most exposed.
Bellato's 46% StrDef means he absorbs 5.86 strikes per minute — one of the highest absorption rates in the LHW division. While his aggression creates offensive dominance, it also means he takes real punishment in return. Bukauskas has 11 career KO/TKO wins and genuine 205 lb power; if the fight gets scrappy and Bellato gets clipped while pressing forward, a counter from the switch stance could turn the fight in a single exchange.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Bellato's best path to victory is an early finish. Press action from the opening bell using his 5.37 SLpM to overwhelm Bukauskas before the switch stance is established. The compact 25-foot Apex cage reduces the entry distance Bellato needs to cover. Mixing power shots with body work breaks Bukauskas' defensive posture, then following with ground-and-pound combinations — the pattern driving most of Bellato's 8 KO/TKO victories at every level he's competed.
With 94% TD defense Bellato should confidently deflect Bukauskas' rare takedown attempts (0.26 per 15 min) and immediately reset to striking range. Any clinch engagement should produce short elbows and dirty boxing rather than extended wrestling — Bukauskas' submission background (3 wins by sub) means prolonged ground exchanges carry genuine risk for Bellato, making quick resets to standing the strategically correct choice.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Cage Dynamics
The 25-foot Meta APEX cage creates a compressed environment that benefits Bellato's forward-pressure style. With less distance to cover between the fighters, his 5.37 SLpM engine operates at peak efficiency sooner. However, Bukauskas' switch stance allows him to angle off walls and reset even in tight quarters — a skill honed across 12 UFC appearances. The smaller cage partially neutralizes the 1-inch reach advantage Bukauskas holds (76" vs 75"), keeping the fight in Bellato's preferred mid-range striking pocket where his 60% accuracy is most destructive.
🎯Technical Breakdown
The statistical disparity is real but nuanced. Bellato's effective strike output (3.22/min) dwarfs Bukauskas' (1.36/min) — a 2.37x ratio driven by his remarkable 60% StrAcc. However, Bellato also absorbs significantly more (5.86 vs 4.05 SApM), creating a high-output, high-damage equilibrium. Bukauskas' switch stance and 50% StrDef provide defensive value beyond the raw numbers — stance disruption isn't fully captured in static stats. Bellato's 94% TDDef effectively eliminates the grappling dimension, making this a pure striking battle despite Bukauskas having 3 submission wins on record.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Three factors determine the outcome: (1) Whether Bukauskas' switch stance can disrupt Bellato's 60% accuracy rhythm — if it does, Bukauskas' experience wins; if it doesn't, Bellato's output wins. (2) Round 1 survival — 54% of Bellato's wins come in the first round, making the opening 5 minutes the highest-leverage window in the fight. (3) The cardio differential in deep water — Bukauskas' 10:30 average fight duration vs Bellato's 7:30 suggests a conditioning gap that widens as rounds progress beyond the first.
🏁Final Prediction
The most likely outcome is Bellato by KO/TKO (33% probability), achieved through elite striking output overwhelming Bukauskas' measured approach before experience and cardio become decisive. Bukauskas' primary path is Decision (25%) — surviving early pressure, using switch-stance disruption to nullify Bellato's accuracy advantage, and outworking him on the scorecards in later rounds. The fight's trajectory hinges almost entirely on what happens in the first five minutes.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
BEST VALUE
Model: 33% probability
FAIRLY PRICED
Model: 25% probability
PACE VALUE
~80% combined finish rate
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Bellato's 60% StrAcc underappreciated — generates 2.37x more effective strikes per minute than Bukauskas.
- • Bukauskas' switch stance is a statistical wildcard — disrupts timing not captured in static accuracy metrics.
- • Cardio gap favors Bukauskas in R3 — 10:30 avg duration vs Bellato's 7:30 signals clear late-round conditioning edge.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Modestas Bukauskas
Primary path — switch-stance pacing + cardio control
Late-round counter as Bellato absorbs damage and fades
Arm triangle or body lock choke if fight hits the mat
💥Outcome Distribution - Rodolfo Bellato
Primary path — elite volume at 60% accuracy, early finish
BJJ pedigree — 4 career sub wins, potential from top position
Only 1 decision win career-wide — scorecards strongly disfavor him
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity — Rodolfo Bellato
- • First 5 minutes: Highest KO equity via elite striking volume at 60% accuracy.
- • Press immediately: Close distance before Bukauskas establishes switch-stance rhythm.
- • Urgency critical: Every minute past Round 1 shifts probability toward Bukauskas.
🎯Progressive Dominance — Modestas Bukauskas
- • Switch stance disruption: Continuously change stance to nullify Bellato's accuracy patterns.
- • Survive R1 storm: Weather early pressure, then impose measured tempo.
- • Cardio advantage: As Bellato fades past Round 1, increase output and target finish.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Slight edge via experience and cardio; Bellato's striking gap creates meaningful upset equity
✅Supporting Factors
- • 12 vs 5 UFC fights — significant octagon IQ gap favors Bukauskas
- • Switch stance disrupts Bellato's 60% accuracy rhythm
- • 4.05 vs 5.86 SApM — Bukauskas absorbs far less per minute
- • 4-fight win streak (before Krylov) shows elite-level consistency
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Bellato's 60% StrAcc generates 3.22 effective strikes/min — 2.37x Bukauskas
- • 94% TD defense eliminates Bukauskas' grappling entirely
- • 7 of 13 Bellato wins in R1 — highest-danger window before Bukauskas settles
🏁Executive Summary
Modestas Bukauskas enters with the experience edge (12 vs 5 UFC fights) and switch-stance versatility that disrupted Ion Cutelaba, Paul Craig, and Marcin Prachnio during his 4-fight win streak. Rodolfo Bellato brings some of the most impressive striking metrics in the LHW division — 5.37 SLpM at 60% accuracy — and a 92.3% finish rate that says this fight rarely reaches the scorecards when he's performing at his best. The central question is whether Bukauskas' octagon IQ and stance disruption can suppress Bellato's elite accuracy before "Trator" overwhelms him with volume. Bellato's loss to Navajo Stirling demonstrated vulnerability in longer, technical fights — exactly the territory Bukauskas thrives in.
Prediction: Bellato by KO/TKO (33%) remains the primary scenario if he can implement his trademark high-output game in the compressed Apex cage. Bukauskas by Decision (25%) is the realistic alternative if he survives the early storm and leverages his experience in the later rounds. The fight's outcome hinges almost entirely on what happens in the first five minutes — Bellato's window narrows significantly every round that passes, while Bukauskas grows more dangerous as the fight deepens.