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UFC Perth: Della Maddalena vs. Prates | Hometown Hero Returns - Predictions & Odds

UFC Perth: Della Maddalena vs. Prates Poster - UFC Fight Analytics
Saturday, May 2, 2026
Perth, Western Australia, Australia
RAC Arena
⚡ Upcoming Event13 Fights🏆 0 Title Fights
Main Card: Paramount+
Prelims: Paramount+
Start Time: 5:00 PM ET
Start Time by Timezone
Times are estimated; Early Prelims ~2h, Prelims ~2h, Main Card ~2h. Subject to change.
PT
US West Coast
Early
2:00 PM
Prelims
3:00 PM
Main
5:00 PM
ET
Eastern US/Canada
Early
5:00 PM
Prelims
6:00 PM
Main
8:00 PM
BST
United Kingdom / Ireland
Early
10:00 PM
Prelims
11:00 PM
Main
1:00 AM (Sun)
CET
Central Europe
Early
11:00 PM
Prelims
12:00 AM (Sun)
Main
2:00 AM (Sun)
AEST
Australia (East)
Early
9:00 AM (Sun)
Prelims
10:00 AM (Sun)
Main
12:00 PM (Sun)
🦘

UFC Perth: Full Card Analytics & Predictions

UFC Perth: Della Maddalena vs. Prates — RAC Arena, Perth — May 2, 2026

The homecoming fight Perth has been waiting for. Jack Della Maddalena (18-3) returns to RAC Arena looking to rebound, and standing in his way is one of the scariest finishers in the division: Carlos Prates (23-7). Della Maddalena's boxing-heavy striking makes him dangerous from every angle, but Prates operates on another level of violence — his UFC victories have come almost exclusively by knockout, including a stoppage of former champion Leon Edwards. This is a fight between two men who genuinely hurt people for a living. Paramount+ at 5:00 PM ET.

AI-powered analytics cover every fight on the full 13-fight card with predictions, odds comparisons, and method-of-victory projections. The undercard is stacked: veteran grappler Beneil Dariush (23-7-1) faces rising Australian Quillan Salkilld (11-1) at lightweight, hometown heavyweight Tai Tuivasa (14-9) fights Sean Sharaf, Tim Elliott (21-13-1) battles Steve Erceg (13-4) at flyweight, undefeated Marwan Rahiki (8-0) faces Jack Jenkins at featherweight, and heavy-handed Shamil Gaziev (14-2) meets Brando Peričić at heavyweight. Seven weight classes, 26 fighters, one massive night in Perth.

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What is UFC Perth: Della Maddalena vs. Prates?

UFC Perth: Della Maddalena vs. Prates is a 13-fight MMA event on May 2, 2026, at RAC Arena in Perth, Western Australia. Jack Della Maddalena (18-3) returns home needing a statement win to stay in the welterweight title picture. Carlos Prates (23-7) is the worst possible opponent for a comeback fight — his UFC victories have come almost exclusively by knockout, including a stoppage of former champion Leon Edwards. The card spans seven weight classes from flyweight to heavyweight, featuring Dariush vs Salkilld, Tuivasa vs Sharaf, Elliott vs Erceg, undefeated Rahiki (8-0), and Gaziev (14-2). Full card on Paramount+ at 5:00 PM ET.

🤖

What are the predictions for Della Maddalena vs. Prates?

This is as close to a pick'em as it gets. Della Maddalena's boxing-heavy game and well-rounded finishing ability make him dangerous from every position, but Prates' explosive knockout power means one clean shot can end the night. The hometown factor gives Della Maddalena a slight edge on paper, but Prates' recent form — including that Edwards stoppage — makes this a genuine coin-flip. Down the card: Dariush vs Salkilld and Tuivasa vs Sharaf both project as value spots, Elliott vs Erceg is a fascinating flyweight clash of styles, and undefeated Marwan Rahiki (8-0) faces experienced Jack Jenkins (14-4) at featherweight. All 13 fights include AI predictions, odds comparisons, and method-of-victory projections.

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How to watch UFC Perth: Della Maddalena vs. Prates and what time does it start?

UFC Perth: Della Maddalena vs. Prates goes live Saturday, May 2, 2026. Main card at 5:00 PM ET (2:00 PM PT / 10:00 PM BST / 5:00 AM AWST Sunday) on Paramount+. Prelims start roughly two hours earlier, also on Paramount+. The full 13-fight card plays out at RAC Arena in Perth, Western Australia — expect a hostile, pro-Della Maddalena crowd making this one of the loudest UFC events of the year.

Main Card Insights

Main Event — Welterweight

Della Maddalena (18-3) vs. Prates (23-7)

Hometown hero returns vs. the man who flatlined Leon Edwards. Della Maddalena's boxing-heavy striking meets Prates' explosive knockout power — when two elite finishers meet, don't blink.

Co-Main — Lightweight

Dariush (23-7-1) vs. Salkilld (11-1)

Veteran grappler Beneil Dariush faces rising Australian Quillan Salkilld. Dariush's elite submission game vs. a well-rounded local talent riding hometown momentum.

Heavyweight

Tuivasa (14-9) vs. Sharaf (4-2)

Fan-favourite Tai Tuivasa fights at home in Perth looking to snap his skid. The heavyweight knockout artist needs a statement win in front of the Aussie crowd.

Flyweight

Elliott (21-13-1) vs. Erceg (13-4)

Veteran wrestler Tim Elliott faces Australia's Steve Erceg at 125 lbs. Elliott's wrestling and scrambling vs. Erceg's striking in a clash of styles with flyweight ranking implications.

Heavyweight

Gaziev (14-2) vs. Peričić (6-1)

Shamil Gaziev's wrestling and power striking meets Brando Peričić's kickboxing pedigree. Two heavyweight prospects looking to make a statement on the international stage.

Featherweight

Jenkins (14-4) vs. Rahiki (8-0)

Undefeated Marwan Rahiki brings aggressive striking and an 8-0 record against well-rounded veteran Jack Jenkins. Can Rahiki's unblemished record survive the step up?

📊Analysis Reliability Framework

Our analytical model considers UFC experience as one of several factors for optimal predictions. While we can analyze any fight, fighters with 5+ UFC bouts provide more comprehensive data for our statistical modeling. This doesn't diminish the quality of our analysis for newer fighters - it's simply one criterion we factor into our confidence assessments.

🔴

High Risk (**)

<3 UFC Bouts

Limited UFC data available. Analysis relies more heavily on external sources and pre-UFC performance patterns.

🟡

Moderate Risk (*)

3-4 UFC Bouts

Meaningful UFC sample size with good analytical foundation. Reliable insights with solid confidence levels.

🟢

Optimal Data

5+ UFC Bouts

Comprehensive statistical foundation enabling highest confidence analysis and predictive accuracy.

Note: All fights receive thorough analysis regardless of UFC experience levels. This framework simply helps calibrate confidence in our predictions.

UFC Perth: Della Maddalena vs. Prates Fights, Analytics & Predictions

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We display the best available odds for each fighter to maximize value. Preference is given to BetOnline when available; otherwise, we select the highest‑value line and show the sportsbook and implied probability (I.P %).

🏆 Main Event
🟢
Jack Della Maddalena
Welterweight
VS
Market Odds
...vs...
No picks yet
Carlos Prates
🟢
Beneil Dariush
Lightweight
VS
Market Odds
...vs...
No picks yet
Quillan Salkilld
🟡
Tai Tuivasa
Heavyweight
VS
Market Odds
...vs...
No picks yet
Sean Sharaf
🟢
Tim Elliott
Flyweight
VS
Market Odds
...vs...
No picks yet
Steve Erceg
🟢
Jacob Malkoun
Middleweight
VS
Market Odds
...vs...
No picks yet
Gerald Meerschaert
🔴
Junior Tafa
Light Heavyweight
VS
Market Odds
...vs...
No picks yet
Kevin Christian
🟡
Cam Rowston
Middleweight
VS
Market Odds
...vs...
No picks yet
Robert Bryczek
🔴
Kody Steele
Lightweight
VS
Market Odds
...vs...
No picks yet
Dom Mar Fan
🟡
Jonathan Micallef
Welterweight
VS
Market Odds
...vs...
No picks yet
Themba Gorimbo
🟡
Shamil Gaziev
Heavyweight
VS
Market Odds
...vs...
No picks yet
Brando Peričić
🟡
Colby Thicknesse
Bantamweight
VS
Market Odds
...vs...
No picks yet
Vince Morales
🔴
Wes Schultz
Middleweight
VS
Market Odds
...vs...
No picks yet
Ben Johnston
🔴
Jack Jenkins
Featherweight
VS
Market Odds
...vs...
No picks yet
Marwan Rahiki

Model Probabilities vs Market Odds Summary

FightFighter AModel Prob AMarket Odds AImplied Prob AFighter BModel Prob BMarket Odds BImplied Prob BValue
Maddalena vs Prates🟢Jack Della Maddalena57.0%N/A—Carlos Prates43.0%N/A—
Maddalena +57.0%
Dariush vs Salkilld🟢Beneil Dariush42.0%N/A—Quillan Salkilld58.0%N/A—
Salkilld +58.0%
Tuivasa vs Sharaf🟡Tai Tuivasa55.0%N/A—Sean Sharaf45.0%N/A—
Tuivasa +55.0%
Elliott vs Erceg🟢Tim Elliott57.0%N/A—Steve Erceg43.0%N/A—
Elliott +57.0%
Malkoun vs Meerschaert🟢Jacob Malkoun65.0%N/A—Gerald Meerschaert35.0%N/A—
Malkoun +65.0%
Rowston vs Bryczek🟡Cam Rowston62.0%N/A—Robert Bryczek38.0%N/A—
Rowston +62.0%
Micallef vs Gorimbo🟡Jonathan Micallef45.0%N/A—Themba Gorimbo55.0%N/A—
Gorimbo +55.0%
Gaziev vs Peričić🟡Shamil Gaziev62.0%N/A—Brando Peričić38.0%N/A—
Gaziev +62.0%
Thicknesse vs Morales🟡Colby Thicknesse60.0%N/A—Vince Morales40.0%N/A—
Thicknesse +60.0%

Event Discussion

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