What are the predictions for UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland?

Our AI model favours Chimaev based on his undefeated record, submission threat (44% sub finish rate), and recent title win over Du Plessis. Strickland's high-output striking and championship experience make him dangerous but his 6% submission finish rate limits his paths to victory against Chimaev's grappling. In the co-main, Van vs. Taira is the tightest fight on the card at 52-48 — it hinges on whether Taira (38% KO, 38% sub) can take the fight to the ground against Van's wrestling-heavy approach. The card also features Brady vs. Buckley and Volkov vs. Cortes-Acosta.

Is Joshua Van vs Tatsuro Taira on UFC 328?

Yes. Joshua Van vs. Tatsuro Taira for the UFC Flyweight Championship is the co-main event at UFC 328 on May 9, 2026. The bout was originally scheduled for UFC 327 (April 11, 2026) but was rescheduled after Van suffered an injury ahead of that event.

Is Blachowicz vs Guskov cancelled at UFC 328?

Yes. The Jan Błachowicz vs. Bogdan Guskov light heavyweight bout scheduled for UFC 328 has been cancelled. Błachowicz suffered a torn meniscus requiring surgery, forcing him off the May 9, 2026 card at Prudential Center in Newark. No replacement opponent for Guskov has been announced.

What are the main storylines at UFC 328?

UFC 328 features four compelling storylines. First: Khamzat Chimaev defends the middleweight title undefeated at 15-0 — a win would make him one of the most dominant champions in UFC history. Second: Sean Strickland, a former middleweight champion who beat Adesanya at UFC 293, attempts to reclaim the title he lost. Third: Joshua Van makes his first defence of the UFC Flyweight Championship against Tatsuro Taira, who could become Japan's first UFC champion. Fourth: Jim Miller (38-19) fights near his hometown of Sparta Township, NJ at age 41 — a local hero storyline that Newark's Prudential Center crowd will embrace.

UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland — Newark

Q: How to watch UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland and what time does it start?

UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland airs on Paramount+ on Saturday, May 9, 2026. The main card starts at 5:00 PM ET (2:00 PM PT / 10:00 PM BST). The event is held at Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey.

Q: Is UFC 328 on pay-per-view?

UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland is not a traditional pay-per-view event — it airs exclusively on Paramount+. Existing Paramount+ subscribers can watch the full event including early prelims, prelims, and main card at no additional cost. The main card begins at 5:00 PM ET on Saturday, May 9, 2026 from Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey. No separate PPV purchase is required.

Saturday, May 9, 2026

Newark, New Jersey, United States

Prudential Center

completed14 Fights🏆 2 Title Fights

Main Card: Paramount+

Prelims: Paramount+

Start Time: 5:00 PM ET

Start Time by Timezone

Times are estimated; Early Prelims ~2h, Prelims ~2h, Main Card ~2h. Subject to change.

US West Coast

Early

2:00 PM

Prelims

3:00 PM

Main

5:00 PM

Eastern US/Canada

Early

5:00 PM

Prelims

6:00 PM

Main

8:00 PM

BST

United Kingdom / Ireland

Early

10:00 PM

Prelims

11:00 PM

Main

1:00 AM (Sun)

CET

Central Europe

Early

11:00 PM

Prelims

12:00 AM (Sun)

Main

2:00 AM (Sun)

AEST

Australia (East)

Early

9:00 AM (Sun)

Prelims

10:00 AM (Sun)

Main

12:00 PM (Sun)

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UFC 328: Full Card Analytics & Predictions

UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland — Prudential Center, Newark — May 9, 2026

The boogeyman gets his biggest test. Undefeated Khamzat Chimaev (15-0, 9-0 UFC) puts the middleweight title on the line against the man nobody wants to fight, Sean Strickland (30-7, 17-7 UFC), at Prudential Center in Newark. Chimaev's 44% submission rate and 22% KO/TKO rate in the UFC make him a nightmare matchup — he has literally never lost a professional fight. Strickland counters with relentless volume (65% of his UFC wins by decision), legitimate knockout power (29% by KO/TKO), and the championship experience that comes from dethroning Adesanya. This is the ultimate grappler-vs-striker title fight. Paramount+ at 5:00 PM ET.

The co-main event brings another championship clash: Joshua Van (16-2, 9-1 UFC) defends the UFC Flyweight Championship against Japan's Tatsuro Taira (18-1, 8-1 UFC) in a bout rescheduled from UFC 327 after Van suffered an injury. Van's wrestling-heavy approach (67% DEC rate) meets Taira's multi-dimensional finishing threat — 38% KO, 38% sub, only 25% decision. AI-powered analytics cover every fight on this card with model probabilities, odds comparisons, and method-of-victory projections. Undercard standouts: Brady vs. Buckley at welterweight is a top-10 grappler-vs-striker clash, Volkov vs. Cortes-Acosta brings heavyweight power, and Błachowicz vs. Guskov features a former champion.

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What is UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland?

UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland is a PPV event on May 9, 2026, at Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey — and it's a double-title-fight card. Undefeated Khamzat Chimaev (15-0, 9-0 UFC) headlines against former champion Sean Strickland (30-7, 17-7 UFC) for the middleweight title. The co-main brings the UFC Flyweight Championship: Joshua Van (16-2) defends against Tatsuro Taira (18-1) in a bout rescheduled from UFC 327 after Van suffered an injury. Two title fights. One night. Newark's Prudential Center on Paramount+ at 5:00 PM ET.

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What are the predictions for Khamzat Chimaev vs. Sean Strickland?

Our model leans Chimaev — his undefeated record, dominant grappling (44% submission rate in the UFC), and recent title win over Du Plessis all point to a fighter who hasn't been figured out yet. Strickland's high-output striking (65% decision rate) and championship composure make him dangerous, but his limited submission offense (6% finish rate) narrows his paths to victory once the fight hits the mat. In the co-main, Van vs. Taira is the closest call on the card at 52-48 — Van's wrestling and decision-heavy style (67% DEC) runs directly into Taira's multi-threat finishing game (38% KO, 38% sub). If Taira gets a takedown, anything can happen. Brady vs. Buckley projects as a top welterweight clash, and Volkov vs. Cortes-Acosta offers heavyweight power and potential underdog value. Every fight includes AI win probabilities, method-of-victory projections, and model-vs-market comparisons.

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How to watch UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland and what time does it start?

UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland goes live Saturday, May 9, 2026. Main card at 5:00 PM ET (2:00 PM PT / 10:00 PM BST) on Paramount+. Prelims start roughly two hours earlier, also on Paramount+. Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey hosts what could be the most explosive title fight of 2026.

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Is Błachowicz vs. Guskov cancelled at UFC 328?

Yes — the Jan Błachowicz vs. Bogdan Guskov light heavyweight bout scheduled for UFC 328 has been cancelled. Błachowicz suffered a torn meniscus requiring surgery, removing the former UFC light heavyweight champion from the May 9, 2026 card entirely. The bout still appears in the full card listing but will not take place at Prudential Center in Newark. No replacement fight has been announced. Guskov (18-3-1) remains without an opponent.

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Is UFC 328 on pay-per-view?

UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland is not a traditional pay-per-view — it airs exclusively on Paramount+. Existing subscribers can watch the complete event — early prelims, prelims, and main card — at no additional charge. No separate PPV purchase is required. The main card begins at 5:00 PM ET on Saturday, May 9, 2026, from Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey. A Paramount+ subscription is the only thing you need to watch the double-title-fight card.

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What are the main storylines going into UFC 328?

Chimaev's legacy fight. At 15-0 with nine UFC wins and zero career losses, Khamzat Chimaev enters as one of the most statistically dominant champions in UFC history. A successful title defence would cement his status as the middleweight division's defining fighter of his era — but Strickland, who dethroned Adesanya at UFC 293 before losing the belt, is nobody's tune-up.

Strickland's redemption arc. Sean Strickland (30-7) is the rare fighter who doesn't care about styles, matchups, or odds. He fights everyone the same way: relentless volume, iron chin, and mental warfare. A win here makes him a two-time middleweight champion and one of the most unlikely title stories in UFC history.

Japan's first UFC champion? In the co-main, Tatsuro Taira (18-1) is the most dangerous flyweight in the world who doesn't yet hold a title. His multi-dimensional finishing game — 38% KO, 38% submission — makes him a nightmare for Van's wrestling-first style. A Taira win would make him Japan's first UFC champion, a moment with enormous cultural weight.

Jim Miller's New Jersey homecoming. Sparta Township, NJ native Jim Miller (38-19) fights at Prudential Center — 30 miles from his hometown — at age 41. The UFC's record-holder for fights in the promotion, Miller versus Jared Gordon is the kind of undercard fight that steals shows.

Main Event — MW Title

Chimaev vs. Strickland

The definitive grappler-vs-striker title fight at 185 lbs. Chimaev claimed the belt from Du Plessis to go 15-0 — he has never been finished and never been submitted in MMA. Strickland (former champion, dethroned Adesanya at UFC 293) counters with 65% decision rate and an iron chin. Whoever dictates where this fight lives wins.

Welterweight

Brady vs. Buckley

Sean Brady (18-2) — one of the UFC's elite grapplers — meets Joaquin Buckley (21-7), who has finished 5 of his last 6 opponents. A Brady win locks up a top-3 ranking; a Buckley win is a highlight-reel KO that vaults him back into title contention. The welterweight division's most interesting stylistic clash below the main event.

Co-Main — FLW Title

Van vs. Taira

Rescheduled from UFC 327 (Van injury). Van (16-2) makes his first title defence with a wrestling-and-decision gameplan (67% DEC rate). Taira (18-1) is arguably the most dangerous flyweight not yet holding a title — 38% KO, 38% sub finishes — and a win would make him Japan's first UFC champion. Tightest fight on the card: model gives it 52-48 Van.

Heavyweight

Volkov vs. Cortes-Acosta

Alexander Volkov (39-11) — veteran, long reach, technical striker — faces Waldo Cortes-Acosta (17-2), who has not been finished inside the UFC and is riding a multi-fight win streak. Model leans Volkov at 55% but flags potential underdog value on Cortes-Acosta if closing odds drift. One of the card's best value spots.

📊Analysis Reliability Framework

Our analytical model considers UFC experience as one of several factors for optimal predictions. While we can analyze any fight, fighters with 5+ UFC bouts provide more comprehensive data for our statistical modeling. This doesn't diminish the quality of our analysis for newer fighters - it's simply one criterion we factor into our confidence assessments.

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High Risk (**)

<3 UFC Bouts

Limited UFC data available. Analysis relies more heavily on external sources and pre-UFC performance patterns.

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Moderate Risk (*)

3-4 UFC Bouts

Meaningful UFC sample size with good analytical foundation. Reliable insights with solid confidence levels.

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Optimal Data

5+ UFC Bouts

Comprehensive statistical foundation enabling highest confidence analysis and predictive accuracy.

Note: All fights receive thorough analysis regardless of UFC experience levels. This framework simply helps calibrate confidence in our predictions.

UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland Fights, Analytics & Predictions

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We display the best available odds for each fighter to maximize value. Preference is given to BetOnline when available; otherwise, we select the highest‑value line and show the sportsbook and implied probability (I.P %).

🏆 Main Event

🟢

Khamzat Chimaev

15-0-0

🏆 undefined

Market Odds

...vs...

No picks yet

Sean Strickland

30-7-0

Ozzy Diaz

10-3-0

🟡

Roman Kopylov

14-5-0

Middleweight

Market Odds

...vs...

No picks yet

Marco Tulio

14-2-0

🟡

Clayton Carpenter

8-2-0

Flyweight

Market Odds

...vs...

No picks yet

Jose Ochoa

"Kalzifer"

8-2-0

🟡

Baisangur Susurkaev

"Hunter"

11-0-0

Middleweight

Market Odds

...vs...

No picks yet

Djorden Santos

"Shakur"

Jared Gordon

"Flash"

21-8-0

⛔ CANCELLED

🟢

Jan Błachowicz

29-11-2

Light Heavyweight

CANCELLED

Market Odds

...vs...

No picks yet

Bogdan Guskov

18-3-1

Model Probabilities vs Market Odds Summary

Fight	Fighter A	Model Prob A	Market Odds A	Implied Prob A	Fighter B	Model Prob B	Market Odds B	Implied Prob B	Value
Chimaev vs Strickland🟢	Khamzat Chimaev	62.0%	N/A	—	Sean Strickland	38.0%	N/A	—	Chimaev +62.0%Wrestling control and submission threat
Van vs Taira🟢	Joshua Van	52.0%	N/A	—	Tatsuro Taira	48.0%	N/A	—	Van +52.0%Statistical model estimate
Volkov vs Cortes-Acosta🟢	Alexander Volkov	55.0%	N/A	—	Waldo Cortes-Acosta	45.0%	N/A	—	Volkov +55.0%Range control and technical precision edge
Brady vs Buckley🟢	Sean Brady	62.0%	N/A	—	Joaquin Buckley	38.0%	N/A	—	Brady +62.0%Grappling control and submission threat
Green vs Stephens🟢	King Green	62.0%	N/A	—	Jeremy Stephens	38.0%	N/A	—	Green +62.0%Volume dominance and superior accuracy drive scoring
Gautier vs Diaz🟡	Ateba Gautier	68.0%	N/A	—	Ozzy Diaz	32.0%	N/A	—	Gautier +68.0%Precision striking and defensive efficiency
Kopylov vs Tulio🟡	Roman Kopylov	52.0%	N/A	—	Marco Tulio	48.0%	N/A	—	Kopylov +52.0%Experience, conditioning, and counter-striking edge
Carpenter vs Ochoa🟡	Clayton Carpenter	45.0%	N/A	—	Jose Ochoa	55.0%	N/A	—	Ochoa +55.0%Submission threat and grappling control
Susurkaev vs Santos🟡	Baisangur Susurkaev	68.0%	N/A	—	Djorden Santos	32.0%	N/A	—	Susurkaev +68.0%Elite finishing power + striking volume advantage
Dawson vs Rębecki🟢	Grant Dawson	62.0%	N/A	—	Mateusz Rębecki	38.0%	N/A	—	Dawson +62.0%Grappling dominance and submission depth
Sabatini vs Gomis🟢	Pat Sabatini	65.0%	N/A	—	William Gomis	35.0%	N/A	—	Sabatini +65.0%Elite grappling volume + submission finishing ability
Miller vs Gordon🟢	Jim Miller	45.0%	N/A	—	Jared Gordon	55.0%	N/A	—	Gordon +55.0%Submission threat via clinch entries & elite BJJ

Event Discussion

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UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland — Newark

UFC 328: Full Card Analytics & Predictions

What is UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland?

What are the predictions for Khamzat Chimaev vs. Sean Strickland?

How to watch UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland and what time does it start?

Is Błachowicz vs. Guskov cancelled at UFC 328?

Is UFC 328 on pay-per-view?

What are the main storylines going into UFC 328?

📊Analysis Reliability Framework

UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland Fights, Analytics & Predictions

Khamzat Chimaev

Sean Strickland

Joshua Van

Tatsuro Taira

Alexander Volkov

Waldo Cortes-Acosta

Sean Brady

Joaquin Buckley

King Green

Jeremy Stephens

Ateba Gautier

Ozzy Diaz

Roman Kopylov

Marco Tulio

Clayton Carpenter

Jose Ochoa

Baisangur Susurkaev

Djorden Santos

Joel Alvarez

Yaroslav Amosov

Grant Dawson

Mateusz Rębecki

Pat Sabatini

William Gomis

Jim Miller

Jared Gordon

Jan Błachowicz

Bogdan Guskov

Model Probabilities vs Market Odds Summary

Event Discussion

THE FUTURE OFCOMBAT SPORTS ANALYTICS

THE FUTURE OF
COMBAT SPORTS ANALYTICS