Where is UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan being held?

The event is at Meta APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada, United States.

Where can I find predictions, odds and fight card breakdowns for UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan?

This page provides AI-powered predictions, model probabilities vs market odds, best value bets and full fight card analysis for UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan.

Renato Moicano vs. Chris Duncan - UFC APEX Las Vegas

Q: When is UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan and what time does it start?

UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan takes place on April 4, 2026. The main card starts at 6:00 PM ET on Paramount+.

Saturday, April 4, 2026

Las Vegas, Nevada, United States

Meta APEX

⚡ Upcoming Event14 Fights🏆 0 Title Fights

Main Card: Paramount+

Prelims: Paramount+

Start Time: 6:00 PM ET

Start Time by Timezone

Times are estimated; Early Prelims ~2h, Prelims ~2h, Main Card ~2h. Subject to change.

PT (Local)

Las Vegas (PT shown)

Early

2:00 PM

Prelims

3:00 PM

Main

5:00 PM

Eastern US/Canada

Early

5:00 PM

Prelims

6:00 PM

Main

8:00 PM

BST

United Kingdom / Ireland

Early

10:00 PM

Prelims

11:00 PM

Main

1:00 AM (Sun)

CET

Central Europe

Early

11:00 PM

Prelims

12:00 AM (Sun)

Main

2:00 AM (Sun)

AEST

Australia (East)

Early

9:00 AM (Sun)

Prelims

10:00 AM (Sun)

Main

12:00 PM (Sun)

Brazilian Submission Artist vs. Scottish Striker

UFC APEX hosts an international lightweight clash on April 4, 2026, as Brazilian veteran Renato Moicano (20-7-1) brings his high-volume striking (5.31 SLpM) and dangerous Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu (0.6 submissions per 15 minutes) against Scottish prospect Chris Duncan (15-2), who seeks to prove his striking prowess (4.85 SLpM) can overcome elite grappling. Moicano, 35, has shared the Octagon with the division's best and knows this Paramount+ headliner represents another opportunity to climb toward title contention. Duncan, 27, arrives with confidence and just two career losses, hunting the veteran scalp that would transform him from prospect to contender. With Moicano's 71% takedown defense and Duncan's 68% TDD, the grappling exchanges will determine if youth conquers experience or if the Brazilian's craft prevails.

Moicano's Experience

20-7-1 against elite competition. Volume striking + BJJ black belt = dangerous on all fronts.

Duncan's Rise

15-2 Scottish striker with 70 composite striking. A veteran scalp transforms his trajectory.

Paramount+ Showcase

Main event spotlight on streaming platform. Both fighters know a signature performance matters.

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What is UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan?

UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan is a mixed martial arts event scheduled for April 4, 2026, at the Meta APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada. The main event features Renato Moicano taking on Chris Duncan in a Lightweight bout. Moicano enters with a 20-7-1 record and is known for his well-rounded game with strong Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and crisp striking. Duncan holds a 15-2 record and is an exciting young striker from Scotland looking to make a statement against a veteran contender. The event airs on Paramount+ with the main card starting at 6:00 PM ET. The undercard includes several competitive matchups across multiple weight classes.

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What are the predictions for Moicano vs. Duncan?

MMA Analytics uses a five-model machine learning ensemble (LightGBM, XGBoost, CatBoost, Logistic Regression, and a Siamese Neural Network) to generate fight predictions. The model analyzes 45 SHAP-selected features and achieves 67.6% accuracy on held-out test data. For each fight on the UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan card, the system produces win probabilities, method-of-victory likelihoods, and confidence metrics, comparing model probabilities against market odds to identify potential value bets. All predictions are generated from historical fighter performance data, matchup dynamics, and physical attributes without human editorial bias.

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How to watch UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan and what time does it start?

UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan takes place on Saturday, April 4, 2026. The main card begins at 6:00 PM ET (2:00 PM PT / 10:00 PM GMT / 9:00 AM AEDT Sunday) on Paramount+. The preliminary card starts approximately two hours earlier on Paramount+. The event is held at the Meta APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada, United States.

UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan — Predictions, Odds & Start Time

Full Fight Card Analytics & Breakdowns (Meta APEX)

Advanced UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan analysis for Moicano vs Duncan featuring detailed fighter performance metrics, model probabilities vs market odds, expert UFC betting picks, how to watch and start time. Our MMA analytics platform delivers in‑depth technical breakdowns and predictions for a championship main event.

We provide super‑detailed fight analyses using proprietary MMA data and AI‑powered models to maximize decision‑making value. Access fight‑by‑fight value betting analysis — model probabilities vs market odds, best value bets, projected odds and actionable fight picks.

📊Analysis Reliability Framework

Our analytical model considers UFC experience as one of several factors for optimal predictions. While we can analyze any fight, fighters with 5+ UFC bouts provide more comprehensive data for our statistical modeling. This doesn't diminish the quality of our analysis for newer fighters - it's simply one criterion we factor into our confidence assessments.

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High Risk (**)

<3 UFC Bouts

Limited UFC data available. Analysis relies more heavily on external sources and pre-UFC performance patterns.

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Moderate Risk (*)

3-4 UFC Bouts

Meaningful UFC sample size with good analytical foundation. Reliable insights with solid confidence levels.

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Optimal Data

5+ UFC Bouts

Comprehensive statistical foundation enabling highest confidence analysis and predictive accuracy.

Note: All fights receive thorough analysis regardless of UFC experience levels. This framework simply helps calibrate confidence in our predictions.

UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan Fights, Analytics & Predictions

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We display the best available odds for each fighter to maximize value. Preference is given to BetOnline when available; otherwise, we select the highest‑value line and show the sportsbook and implied probability (I.P %).

Darrius Flowers

12-8-1

Model Probabilities vs Market Odds Summary

Fight	Fighter A	Model Prob A	Market Odds A	Implied Prob A	Fighter B	Model Prob B	Market Odds B	Implied Prob B	Value
Moicano vs Duncan🟢	Renato Moicano	64.0%	N/A	—	Chris Duncan	36.0%	N/A	—	Moicano +64.0%Experience, cardio, and elite BJJ in championship rounds
Jandiroba vs Ricci🟢	Virna Jandiroba	52.0%	N/A	—	Tabatha Ricci	48.0%	N/A	—	Jandiroba +52.0%Elite submission threat and defensive efficiency
Shahbazyan vs Park🟢	Edmen Shahbazyan	43.0%	N/A	—	Jun Yong Park	57.0%	N/A	—	Park +57.0%Early knockout power and high-volume pressure
Costa vs Nicoll🟡	Alessandro Costa	32.0%	N/A	—	Stewart Nicoll	68.0%	N/A	—	Nicoll +68.0%Submission path via clinch and ground control
Barbosa vs Gatto🟡	Dione Barbosa	68.0%	N/A	—	Melissa Gatto	32.0%	N/A	—	Barbosa +68.0%Grappling pressure and damage economy in small cage
Bekoev vs Gore🟡	Azamat Bekoev	50.0%	N/A	—	Tresean Gore	50.0%	N/A	—	Gore +50.0%
Vannata vs Flowers🟡	Lando Vannata	50.0%	N/A	—	Darrius Flowers	50.0%	N/A	—	Flowers +50.0%

Event Discussion

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Renato Moicano vs. Chris Duncan - UFC APEX Las Vegas

Brazilian Submission Artist vs. Scottish Striker

What is UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan?

What are the predictions for Moicano vs. Duncan?

How to watch UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan and what time does it start?

UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan — Predictions, Odds & Start Time

📊Analysis Reliability Framework

UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan Fights, Analytics & Predictions

Renato Moicano

Chris Duncan

Virna Jandiroba

Tabatha Ricci

Edmen Shahbazyan

Jun Yong Park

Hailey Cowan

Alice Pereira

Alessandro Costa

Stewart Nicoll

Dione Barbosa

Melissa Gatto

Azamat Bekoev

Tresean Gore

Tommy McMillen

Manolo Zecchini

Thomas Petersen

Guilherme Pat

Robert Ruchala

Jose Delano

Rafael Estevam

Ethyn Ewing

Charles Radtke

Jose Henrique Souza

Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev

Brendson Ribeiro

Lando Vannata

Darrius Flowers

Model Probabilities vs Market Odds Summary

Event Discussion

THE FUTURE OFCOMBAT SPORTS ANALYTICS

THE FUTURE OF
COMBAT SPORTS ANALYTICS