Charlie Radtke vs Jose Henrique Souza
Men's Welterweight Bout • UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs Duncan
Saturday, April 4, 2026 • 25ft Octagon (Small Cage)
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Charlie Radtke
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Jose Henrique Souza
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Charlie Radtke
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-01 | Daniel Frunza | W | Submission - Rear Naked Choke (R3, 4:29) |
| 2025-05-10 | Mike Malott | L | KO/TKO - Punches (R2, 0:26) |
| 2024-11-09 | Matthew Semelsberger | W | TKO - Punches (R1, 0:51) |
| 2024-06-08 | Carlos Prates | L | KO/TKO - Knee to Body (R1, 4:47) |
| 2023-09-09 | Blood Diamond | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Jose Henrique Souza
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-13 | Porfirio Alves Jr. | W | TKO - Knee to Body/Punches (R2, 2:13) |
| 2024-01-20 | Alexandre Silva | W | Decision - Majority (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-02-03 | Alan Silva | W | KO - Knee (R3, 4:55) |
| 2022-08-30 | Yusaku Kinoshita | L | TKO - Punches (DWCS) (R3, 0:43) |
| 2022-05-13 | Pedro Oliveira | W | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (58.0 vs 56.0) and Grappling Composite (52.0 vs 32.0). Balances overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Visual comparison of key performance metrics between both fighters
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Charlie Radtke Key Advantages
Radtke's 1.62 takedowns per 15 minutes vs Souza's 0.40 represents a 4x differential that could shift the fight into his preferred realm. With 3 submission wins on his record including a recent rear naked choke against Frunza, Radtke presents a multi-layered grappling threat. The 25-foot cage significantly aids his ability to cut off the ring and force clinch exchanges against the fence. Against a UFC debutant with limited defensive grappling data, Radtke's ability to mix takedowns with submission attempts creates uncomfortable scrambles that drain Souza's energy and disrupt his striking rhythm.
Radtke's 5 UFC fights compared to Souza's promotional debut is perhaps the most significant advantage in this matchup. The APEX environment, octagon timing, and UFC-level competition adjustment are real factors. Radtke has faced elite competition in Carlos Prates and Mike Malott—losing but gaining valuable experience against top-tier opponents. His 42% takedown accuracy and 52% takedown defense are proven metrics against UFC-caliber athletes, while Souza's numbers come entirely from regional competition in Brazil. The octagon debut jitters, combined with Radtke's comfort in the APEX cage, could create significant early advantages.
Radtke's 72.7% finish rate across 11 victories demonstrates diverse finishing ability—5 KO/TKOs and 3 submissions. His recent third-round RNC of Frunza proves he can maintain intensity deep into fights and capitalize on late opportunities. His diverse finish repertoire (standing strikes, ground-and-pound, submissions) forces opponents to defend multiple threats simultaneously. In a 3-round fight at the small cage, Radtke's ability to grind and finish late becomes particularly valuable if Souza's cardio—untested at the UFC level—begins to fade.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Souza's 75% KO/TKO win rate makes him one of the most dangerous debutants the UFC has seen. His 6 KO/TKO victories in just 9 fights, including devastating knee strikes, present a real first-round threat. Radtke's 43% striking defense and 3 KO/TKO losses on his record confirm his chin vulnerability. If Souza lands clean power shots early—particularly his signature knees and body shots—Radtke could be finished before his grappling advantage materializes. The Brazilian's explosive power in the first five minutes represents his most dangerous window.
Souza's 5-inch height advantage (6'3" vs 5'10") and 4-inch reach advantage (76" vs 72") create significant problems for Radtke in the striking department. The Brazilian can maintain distance with long jabs and teeps while threatening devastating power at range. Radtke will need to cover significant ground to close distance for takedowns, exposing himself to intercept strikes. Souza's ability to use his frame to create separation in the clinch and his length to frame off from bottom position could neutralize Radtke's grappling entries.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Radtke should look to immediately pressure Souza and establish clinch exchanges against the fence. His best strategy involves using feints and level changes to close the distance safely, then chain wrestling sequences to accumulate control time. The 25-foot cage eliminates much of the space Souza needs to utilize his reach advantage, and Radtke's experience in the APEX gives him familiarity with cage dimensions. By forcing clinch battles early and threatening takedowns, Radtke can prevent Souza from establishing his preferred striking range and rhythm.
Once Radtke secures takedowns or back control, his priority should be actively hunting submissions rather than just maintaining position. His recent RNC finish demonstrates live submission skills, and against a debutant whose ground defense is untested at the UFC level, Radtke has opportunities to find finishes. His ability to transition between positions and threaten chokes creates scramble opportunities that a less experienced fighter may struggle to navigate. In the small cage, Radtke can use the fence to assist with takedowns and maintain positional control while working toward submissions.
🚀 Jose Henrique Souza Key Advantages
Souza's physical dimensions are exceptional for the welterweight division—at 6'3" with a 76-inch reach, he towers over Radtke and can control distance effectively. His long frame allows him to land clean strikes at ranges where Radtke cannot counter effectively. The Brazilian's ability to use front kicks, teeps, and long jabs to maintain distance makes closing the gap extremely difficult for shorter opponents. His 50% striking accuracy from regional competition suggests he can land these long weapons with consistency, and at 23 years old with a naturally bigger frame, his physical ceiling remains untapped.
Souza's 6 KO/TKO victories in 8 wins demonstrate rare power that translates across all phases. His signature knees to the body (as seen vs Alves Jr.) and standing punches create multi-level threats that Radtke must constantly defend. The Brazilian's youth (23) means explosive speed and recovery advantages, while his power shots—particularly his right hand and knee strikes—have ended fights in all three rounds. Against Radtke's 43% striking defense and history of being finished by strikes, Souza's power represents a live threat throughout the entire fight duration.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Souza has zero submission wins and limited grappling data from regional competition, making his defensive wrestling and ground game the biggest question marks in this matchup. Radtke's chain-wrestling sequences and submission threat create scenarios where Souza could be taken down and controlled for extended periods. The Brazilian's Nova Uniao background provides some jiu-jitsu training, but translating gym skills to live UFC grappling against an experienced wrestler is a significant challenge. Once on his back, Souza's primary weapon—his knockout power—becomes almost entirely neutralized.
Making a UFC debut after a 2-year USADA suspension adds significant psychological pressure. Souza last competed in November 2024 against regional competition, and the jump to UFC-level opponents is substantial. His only professional loss came via TKO when he was overwhelmed in the third round on Dana White's Contender Series, suggesting he can fade under sustained pressure from higher-caliber opponents. The APEX environment, experienced opponent, and the weight of expectations after his suspension could create hesitation or over-eagerness that Radtke can exploit.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Souza's optimal strategy involves maintaining his preferred distance and utilizing his significant size advantages. His long jabs, front kicks, and teeps should target Radtke's midsection and legs to slow his advance. When Radtke commits to closing distance, Souza should threaten uppercuts and knees to intercept entries. The key is establishing his jab early to find range and timing, then loading up power shots when Radtke is out of position. His 76-inch reach allows him to land clean shots while staying outside Radtke's effective striking and clinch range.
Souza's best chance of victory lies in finding a finish in the first two rounds when his power is freshest and before Radtke can establish his grinding approach. The Brazilian should look to capitalize on his early energy advantage by maintaining high output and landing clean power shots. His 3 first-round finishes demonstrate he can end fights quickly when his power connects. Against Radtke's suspect chin (3 KO losses), even a single clean power shot could change the fight. By front-loading damage and seeking the knockout, Souza can avoid the grappling-heavy later rounds where Radtke becomes more dangerous.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Cage Dynamics
The 25-foot octagon at the UFC APEX significantly favors Radtke's pressure-fighting approach. The reduced cage space eliminates much of the distance Souza needs to capitalize on his 4-inch reach advantage and creates more opportunities for clinch exchanges and cage wrestling. Radtke's APEX experience—3 of his 5 UFC fights have been at this venue—gives him intimate knowledge of the space and timing needed to cut off angles effectively. The small cage compresses Souza's ability to circle away from pressure and forces the kind of close-range exchanges where Radtke's grappling becomes a constant threat.
🎯Technical Breakdown
The statistical comparison reveals a classic striker-vs-grappler dynamic with an experience layer. Radtke's 1.62 TD15 vs Souza's 0.40 represents a 4x differential in takedown volume, while his 42% takedown accuracy against UFC competition outweighs Souza's 25% from regional circuits. However, Souza's size advantages (5" height, 4" reach) and superior striking defense (48% vs 43%) create a meaningful striking threat. Radtke absorbs 4.95 strikes per minute—a high rate that becomes dangerous against Souza's knockout power. The fight essentially comes down to whether Souza can keep the fight at range and land his power shots before Radtke closes distance and initiates grappling.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Three critical battle areas will determine the outcome: distance management in the small cage, takedown entry success rate, and cardio durability. Souza's 76-inch reach should allow him to establish a jab and front kicks early, but the 25-foot cage limits his ability to maintain that range over 15 minutes. Radtke's level changes will be contested by Souza's length and frames, but the experienced veteran's chain-wrestling ability typically breaks through with persistence. The cardio question looms largest for Souza—his regional competition never tested his gas tank against UFC-level pressure, and Radtke's grinding approach is designed to expose exactly this weakness.
🏁Final Prediction
The most likely outcome is Charlie Radtke by Decision (30% probability) through consistent grappling pressure and cage control over 3 rounds. Radtke by KO/TKO (15%) becomes viable through ground-and-pound accumulation or standing exchanges when Souza tires. Souza's primary victory path is KO/TKO (30%)—his devastating power against Radtke's suspect chin creates a live knockout threat throughout. Souza by Decision (15%) requires maintaining range control for all 3 rounds. The fight represents a classic prospect-vs-veteran dynamic where experience and grappling compete against youth, size, and power.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 10% | Fair: +900
GOOD VALUE
Model: 15% | Fair: +567
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 45% | Fair: -122
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Overweights UFC debut factor – Market may overvalue Souza's raw power without considering APEX cage dynamics.
- • Undervalues grappling threat – Radtke's submission ability against an untested ground game represents significant upset equity.
- • Small cage overlooked – 25ft octagon compresses Souza's range advantage significantly.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Charlie Radtke
Primary path via consistent grappling pressure and cage control
Ground-and-pound accumulation or standing exchanges when Souza tires
Rear naked choke or other submissions against untested ground game
💥Outcome Distribution - Jose Henrique Souza
Devastating power against Radtke's suspect chin
Requires maintaining range control for all 3 rounds
Zero submission wins on record
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Jose Henrique Souza
- • First 5–7 minutes: Highest KO equity at range.
- • Long weapons: Jabs + teeps to maintain distance.
- • Power shots: Target the chin early before clinch pressure builds.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Charlie Radtke
- • Clinch control: Fence work banks safe minutes.
- • Level changes: Mix shots with submissions.
- • Late round: Superior cardio and experience take over.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Competitive matchup with high variance due to debut uncertainty
✅Supporting Factors
- • UFC experience edge (5 fights vs debut)
- • Small cage favors Radtke's pressure style
- • Grappling versatility creates multiple paths to victory
- • Proven ability to finish in later rounds
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Souza's explosive knockout power (75% KO rate)
- • Significant size and reach disadvantages
- • Radtke's chin vulnerability (3 KO losses)
- • Unknown quantity—debut fighters can surprise
🏁Executive Summary
Charlie Radtke's UFC experience and grappling versatility face a stern test against Jose Henrique Souza's explosive knockout power and significant physical advantages in this welterweight clash at the UFC APEX. The 25-foot cage favors Radtke's pressure-fighting approach, compressing Souza's ability to utilize his 4-inch reach and 5-inch height advantage effectively. Radtke's 1.62 TD15 vs Souza's 0.40 creates a meaningful grappling differential, while his diverse finish ability (5 KO/TKOs, 3 submissions) presents multiple threats. However, Souza's 75% KO rate and devastating power against Radtke's 43% striking defense and history of being finished create a genuine knockout threat throughout all 3 rounds. The debutant's 2-year layoff due to USADA suspension and untested UFC-level cardio remain significant unknowns.
Prediction: Radtke by Decision most likely (30% probability) through consistent pressure and cage control; Souza's knockout lane (30%) represents an equally viable outcome via early power striking. This is a high-variance matchup where the veteran's experience and grappling compete against the prospect's raw physical tools and finishing ability.