Adrian Yanez vs Juan Díaz (cancelled): bout cancelled

PRELIMS · BANTAMWEIGHT · 3 ROUNDSUFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit
Adrian Yanez — Bantamweight fighter

Adrian Yanez

18W6L1D
Volume Boxer
Juan Díaz — Bantamweight fighter

Juan Díaz

“Pegajoso”
16W1L1D
Chain Wrestler

A knockout puncher fresh off Garbrandt meets a debut-winning chain wrestler

BantamweightMadison Square Garden, New York CityNovember 14, 2026Standard 30ft Octagon
01

The Frame

What this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it

The Analyst's Take

Adrian Yanez arrives off the cleanest night of his recent run: a first-round knockout of former champion Cody Garbrandt in July, four months after a majority draw with Ricky Simon. Eleven UFC fights have made his pattern plain. He is one of the busiest punchers in the division, lands close to six significant strikes a minute and gets hit nearly as often, and six of his seven UFC wins are knockouts. He has attempted one takedown in the Octagon. Juan "Pegajoso" Díaz, a Peruvian who built his record in Mexico's Lux Fight League and earned his contract on the Contender Series, debuted in May by taking Malcolm Wellmaker down five times and finishing him with a rear-naked choke late in round two. That one fight is his whole UFC file, and it is a wrestling file. The recent evidence on Yanez says wrestlers make his nights difficult without finishing him; he has never been submitted in 25 professional fights. Our lean is the proven Octagon striker, with the takedown the reason this is a live fight rather than a mismatch.

Adrian Yanez
Attribute
Juan Díaz
32
Age
Nov 29, 1993 vs Jun 3, 199828
5'7"
Height
+1.5" Díaz5'8.5"
70"+0.5" Yanez
Reach
69.5"
38"
Leg Reach
38"
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
7-3-1
UFC Record
1-0
11
UFC Bouts
1
#24 BW
Card Rank
#52 BW
Volume boxing, no wrestling offence
Fighting Style
Chain wrestling to back control

Almost identical frames. Díaz is an inch and a half taller, Yanez half an inch longer in reach, and both fight orthodox with a 38-inch leg reach. The differences that matter are age and mileage: Yanez turns 33 two weeks after the fight and has eleven UFC bouts behind him; Díaz is 28 and has one.

Venue Factor
Madison Square Garden uses the standard 30-foot Octagon. Space favours the fighter who wants to stay off the fence, and that is Yanez. Díaz won his debut in the smaller 25-foot cage at the Meta APEX; here he has more ground to cover before he reaches the clinch and the takedown.
02

The Fighters

Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage

Adrian Yanez strikes Cody Garbrandt at UFC 329 in Las Vegas, July 2026

Adrian Yanez

Pro Record
18-6-1
UFC Record
7-3-1 across 11 UFC bouts since October 2020
Streak
Won his last — first-round KO of Cody Garbrandt (Jul 11, 2026); 1-1-1 in his last three
Finish Rate
78% (14 of 18 wins) — 12 KO/TKO, 2 submissions
Avg Fight Time
7:45 (UFC)
Chin · Hittable — 3 UFC knockdowns absorbed; stopped by Rob Font (R1) and Jonathan Martinez (R2) in 2023SOS · Veteran-heavy, one former championHigh-Volume Boxer

Yanez came to the UFC from the Contender Series in 2020 and won his first five Octagon fights, four by knockout: Victor Rodriguez with a head kick in his debut, Gustavo Lopez early in the third round, Randy Costa and Tony Kelley with punches, plus a split decision over Davey Grant. The run stopped in 2023, when Rob Font knocked him out in the first round and Jonathan Martinez chopped him down with leg kicks in the second. Since then the results have alternated — a first-round knockout of Vinicius Salvador, a split-decision loss to Daniel Marcos, a majority draw with Ricky Simon — before the July knockout of former champion Cody Garbrandt at 2:47 of round one. The style has not changed. He lands 5.92 significant strikes a minute at 42% and absorbs 5.23, 91% of his output comes at distance, and he has attempted one takedown in eleven UFC fights. Eight knockdowns dealt against three absorbed tell the rest: when he connects he ends fights, and when he is caught cleanly he can be finished.

Juan Díaz secures a submission against Malcolm Wellmaker at the Meta APEX, May 2026

Juan Díaz

Pro Record
16-1-1
UFC Record
1-0 — debut win in May 2026, plus 1-0 on the Contender Series
Streak
9-fight win streak since his only loss (Rodrigo Vera, Oct 2021)
Finish Rate
50% (8 of 16 wins) — 5 KO/TKO, 3 submissions
Avg Fight Time
9:08 (one UFC bout)
Chin · Never stopped in 18 pro fights — no knockdowns absorbed in the UFCSOS · Debut levelChain Wrestler / Back-Taker

Díaz is a 28-year-old from Callao, Peru, who trains at the UFC Performance Institute in Mexico City and built most of his record in Mexico, winning six straight in the Lux Fight League between 2023 and 2025 — two of them five-round decisions and one a fourth-round doctor stoppage. He earned his contract on the Contender Series in October 2025 with a spinning back elbow that stopped Kwon Won-il at 4:58 of round two, then debuted in May against the unbeaten Malcolm Wellmaker. That fight is the template. Wellmaker won the striking, 15 significant strikes to 13, but Díaz landed five of eight takedown attempts, controlled 3:48 of the 9:08 and finished with a rear-naked choke at 4:08 of round two. Half of his sixteen wins are decisions, so the wrestling is not only a finishing tool; it is how he wins rounds. What the record has not shown yet is how the entries hold up against a puncher with Yanez's volume and power.

Adrian Yanez
0 dealt · 0 absorbed
Knockdown Exchange
Knockdowns dealt vs absorbed.
Juan Díaz
0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Adrian Yanezsignature weapons

Punches11 of his 12 knockouts — latest Cody Garbrandt, R1 2:47, July 2026
×11
Head kickVictor Rodriguez, R1 2:46 — his UFC debut, October 2020
×1
Triangle / armbarBoth on the Texas regional circuit, 2015 and 2016
×2

Juan Díazsignature weapons

Rear-naked chokeLatest: Malcolm Wellmaker, R2 4:08, May 2026
×2
Doctor stoppageJose Roura after round four (2024) and Francisco Alessandria (2018)
×2
PunchesJuan Campos (2021) and Javier Guzman (2019)
×2
Spinning back elbowKwon Won-il, R2 4:58 — Contender Series, October 2025
×1

Adrian Yanez

W
Cody Garbrandt
KO/TKO — Punches

Opponent context: veteran

R1 (2:47)
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 — Jul 11, 2026
D
Ricky Simon
Draw — Majority

Opponent context: veteran

R3 (5:00)
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer — Mar 28, 2026
L
Daniel Marcos
Decision — Split

Opponent context: prospect

R3 (5:00)
UFC on ESPN: Covington vs. Buckley — Dec 14, 2024
W
Vinicius Salvador
KO/TKO — Punches

Opponent context: ufc

R1 (2:47)
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy — May 18, 2024
L
Jonathan Martinez
KO/TKO — Leg kicks

Opponent context: ranked

R2 (2:26)
UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Barboza — Oct 14, 2023
Pattern

One win, one draw and one loss in his last three, and the split runs by opponent type. The two men who stood and traded with him since 2024, Vinicius Salvador and Cody Garbrandt, were knocked out at 2:47 of round one. The two who mixed in takedowns went the full fifteen minutes: Daniel Marcos out-landed him 86 to 79 with two takedowns and won a split decision, and Ricky Simon was out-landed 71 to 44 but banked two takedowns of his own and got a majority draw. The 2023 losses are the other warning. Rob Font and Jonathan Martinez both stopped him inside two rounds, so his own chin is part of every early exchange.

Juan Díaz

W
Malcolm Wellmaker
Submission — Rear-naked choke

Opponent context: prospect

R2 (4:08)
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa — May 16, 2026
W
Kwon Won-il
KO/TKO — Spinning back elbow

Opponent context: ufc adjacent

R2 (4:58)
Dana White's Contender Series — Oct 14, 2025
W
Uriel Cossio
Decision — Unanimous (five rounds)

Opponent context: ufc adjacent

R5 (5:00)
Lux Fight League 050, Monterrey — Feb 21, 2025
W
Jose Roura
KO/TKO — Doctor stoppage

Opponent context: ufc adjacent

R4 (5:00)
Lux Fight League 047, Mexico City — Nov 1, 2024
W
Abraham Nava
Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: ufc adjacent

R3 (5:00)
Lux Fight League 042, Guadalajara — Apr 26, 2024
Pattern

Nine straight wins and two finishes late in round two at the top level. Against Wellmaker he lost the striking 15–13 and won everything else: five takedowns, 3:48 of control, a submission attempt that became the finish. Against Kwon Won-il on the Contender Series the stoppage came from a spinning back elbow two seconds before the end of round two. Behind those sits a Lux Fight League run in which three of his six wins came in fights scheduled for five rounds, so long fights are familiar territory.

Adrian Yanez

Win Methods
Wins by Round

Juan Díaz

Win Methods
Wins by Round
Critical Insight
Both donuts and both round charts cover career wins, so they add up to each pro record: Yanez's 18 (12 by knockout, 4 decisions, 2 submissions) and Díaz's 16 (5 by knockout, 8 decisions, 3 submissions). They point in opposite directions. Eight of Yanez's wins ended in round one and fourteen inside the distance. Half of Díaz's wins went to the judges, including two five-round decisions in Mexico, and his one finish beyond round three was a doctor stoppage after the fourth. Yanez is the faster finisher; Díaz is the one with proven long-fight minutes.

Opposition strength (no shared opponents)

Without a reliable shared-opponent table, compare who each fighter has been tested against using SOS tier, UFC sample size, and recent elite-tier form — not raw records alone.

FactorAdrianJuan
Strength of schedule (SOS tier)Veteran-heavy, one former champion — Cody Garbrandt, Rob Font, Jonathan Martinez, Ricky Simon, Daniel Marcos and Davey GrantDebut level — Malcolm Wellmaker in the UFC, Kwon Won-il on the Contender Series, and a six-fight Lux Fight League run in Mexico
UFC sample7-3-1 across 11 UFC bouts since October 20201-0 — debut win in May 2026, plus 1-0 on the Contender Series
Recent ranked / elite touches (last 5)0 elite · 2 veteran tier0 elite · 0 veteran tier
Form-window difficulty edge: Fighter A (5 vs 1 tier points in listed bouts).
Last three opponentsCody Garbrandt, Ricky Simon, Daniel MarcosMalcolm Wellmaker, Kwon Won-il, Uriel Cossio
03

The Numbers

Composites, division ranks and round-by-round evidence

Composite scores summarize selected statistics on a 0–100 scale. They are not win probabilities. Compare the underlying metrics, opponent quality and UFC experience before interpreting a score difference as a matchup advantage.

Striking

Output · Acc · Def

0
Adrian
0
Juan

Yanez lands 5.92 a minute across eleven UFC fights with eight knockdowns. Díaz landed 13 in his 9:08 debut

Grappling

TD · TDD · Sub

0
Adrian
0
Juan

Yanez has one takedown attempt in the UFC. Díaz landed five of eight and finished from the back

Form

Recent results

0
Adrian
0
Juan

Yanez: KO win, draw, loss in his last three. Díaz: nine straight wins

MetricAdrianJuan
SLpM5.921.42
Str Acc42%52%
SApM5.231.64
TD/150.008.21
KD80
UFC Bouts111

Archetype Base Rate

UFC Volume Boxer 60%40% Wrestle-to-Choke Debut Winner

Matchup read: proven Octagon striking against a one-fight wrestling file · The lean follows eleven UFC fights of finishing power; the takedown threat is why it stops at 60.

Adrian YanezJuan Díaz

Bantamweight

· 52 fighters

Rank bars use the recorded division cohort. Where no rank is shown, the comparison shows the difference from the published division average; the white marker denotes equality. Percentage differences are percentage points (pp). Higher is not always better: fewer strikes absorbed is preferable.

StatAdrianAdrian comparisonDiv avgJuan comparisonJuan
SLpM5.92
+1.47 vs avg
4.45
-3.03 vs avg
1.42
Str Acc42%
-4.20 pp vs avg
46.2%
+5.80 pp vs avg
52%
Str Def57%
+3.30 pp vs avg
53.7%
+1.30 pp vs avg
55%
SApM5.23
+1.04 vs avg
4.19
-2.55 vs avg
1.64
KD/151.41
+0.99 vs avg
0.42
-0.42 vs avg
0.00
TD/150.00
-1.49 vs avg
1.49
+6.72 vs avg
8.21
TD Acc0% (0 of 1)
—
—
—
63% (5 of 8)
TD Def75% (4 of 16 conceded)
—
—
—
—
Sub/150.00
-0.51 vs avg
0.51
+1.13 vs avg
1.64
Avg Fight Time7:45
—
—
—
9:08
Statistical Verdict
Yanez's line is a volume puncher's: 5.92 landed and 5.23 absorbed per minute, both well above the bantamweight averages, with a knockdown rate more than three times the division norm. Díaz's one UFC fight produced the opposite profile — low striking volume, a takedown rate more than five times the average and a submission finish. The cell the fight turns on is Yanez's takedown defence. Opponents have landed four of sixteen attempts on him, and all four came in the two fights he did not win.

Significant Strikes Landed per Round

⚠ R1, R2: single-fight sample for Juan Díaz

Control Time per Round (sec)

Adrian Yanez

  • His output barely moves across rounds: 23.6 significant strikes in an average first round, 23.5 in the second and 25.8 in the third, with close to nine in ten thrown at distance. Opponents answer with 22.2, 20.5 and 19.5, so his fights are high-traffic from the opening bell.
  • He finishes early and he has been finished early. Five of his seven UFC wins ended inside two rounds, and his first-round knockdown rate is 0.36 per round; both UFC knockout losses, Rob Font at 2:57 of round one and Jonathan Martinez in round two, came in the same window.
  • Takedowns against him are rare but recent. Across eleven UFC fights opponents have landed four of sixteen attempts, and all four came from Ricky Simon and Daniel Marcos, the two fights he did not win in 2024–26.

Juan Díaz

  • His UFC rounds read as a wrestler's: 6 significant strikes and 88 seconds of control in round one, then 7 strikes and 140 seconds of control in round two before the rear-naked choke at 4:08.
  • Wellmaker out-landed him 10 to 6 in the first round and 15 to 13 overall, and it did not matter once the takedowns came — five of eight landed, none conceded.
  • His Contender Series win over Kwon Won-il also ended late in round two, on a spinning back elbow at 4:58. At that level he has not needed a third round yet.
Critical Insight
The two sets of lines describe different fights. Yanez's are flat and striking-heavy — about 24 landed in every round, almost none of it on the ground. Díaz's single UFC fight was spent in control. If the first round looks like Yanez's average first round, the volume gap is enormous; if it looks like Díaz's, Yanez is carrying weight against the fence.

Strike targeting

Adrian

Head
74%
Body
13%
Legs
13%

Juan

Head
23%
Body
23%
Legs
54%

Head hunting vs body work vs leg attack — the shape of the damage.

Striking range — distance, clinch and ground

AdrianJuan
91%Distance77%
2%Clinch15%
7%Ground8%

Share of significant strikes landed at distance, in the clinch and on the ground across each fighter's UFC rounds, weighted by strike volume.

04

The Story of the Fight

Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath

Where the fight lives

Who owns each phase — and by how much
Open SpaceAdrian owns it

91% of Yanez's UFC output comes at distance, at 5.92 landed a minute

Pocket / ExchangesAdrian owns it

Where his knockdowns come from — and where Font and Martinez caught him

Clinch / FenceJuan owns it

Díaz's entries end here; under 2% of Yanez's UFC strikes land in the clinch

GroundJuan owns it

3:48 of control and a choke in Díaz's debut; Yanez has one takedown attempt in eleven fights

The Deep Read

This is a fight between two very specific skill sets. Adrian Yanez is one of the busiest punchers at bantamweight — 5.92 significant strikes landed per minute across eleven UFC fights, eight knockdowns, six knockouts — and he has attempted one takedown in the Octagon. Juan Díaz's UFC career is nine minutes long, and in those nine minutes he landed five takedowns, controlled 3:48 and finished Malcolm Wellmaker with a rear-naked choke.

Yanez's recent record explains why the matchup is interesting. The two opponents who stood with him since 2024, Vinicius Salvador and Cody Garbrandt, were knocked out at 2:47 of round one. The two who mixed in wrestling, Daniel Marcos and Ricky Simon, each landed two takedowns and took him fifteen minutes; he lost one split decision and drew the other. That is not a fighter who gets dominated on the mat — he has never been submitted — but it is one whose best weapon goes quiet when he is carrying weight.

Díaz belongs to that second group, with an important caveat: one UFC fight is thin evidence. Wellmaker out-struck him and Díaz still finished, but Yanez hits harder and far more often than anyone Díaz has faced. The lean is Yanez, 60 to 40, with a knockout as the single most likely outcome and Díaz's submission as the clearest route to an upset. Conviction 5 out of 10.

Path to Victory

Adrian Yanez

Keep it a boxing match. Yanez wins striking exchanges on volume, and six of his seven UFC wins ended on the feet. The key moment is the first takedown attempt: circle off the fence, punish the level change and get back to the middle of a 30-foot Octagon. If the early shots come up empty, the Garbrandt and Salvador nights — finishes inside three minutes — are where the numbers point.

Why they win
01
Proven finishing power

Eight UFC knockdowns and six UFC knockouts, the latest on former champion Cody Garbrandt in July.

02
Output at a different level

5.92 significant strikes a minute across eleven UFC fights, against 1.42 in Díaz's one.

03
Never submitted

Six career losses — two knockouts, four decisions — and no submission defeat in 25 pro fights.

04
Octagon mileage

Eleven UFC bouts to one, including Rob Font, Jonathan Martinez and a former champion.

05
The bigger cage

The 30-foot Octagon gives a boxer room to reset away from the fence every time Díaz presses.

The gameplan
  1. 1
    Centre and circle

    Stay off the fence; the larger Octagon lets him reset every time Díaz walks forward.

  2. 2
    Punish the entry

    Díaz shoots from striking range. Short punches on the level change are Yanez's best takedown defence.

  3. 3
    Volume early

    Start at his usual pace — about 24 landed a round — and make Díaz strike with him before he can wrestle.

  4. 4
    Get up immediately

    If he is taken down, wall-walk at once; the takedowns landed on him came in the fights he did not win.

  5. 5
    Hunt the finish

    Eight UFC knockdowns say this can end on the first clean combination.

Path to Victory

Juan Díaz

Make it the Wellmaker fight. Díaz does not need to win the striking — he lost it in his debut and still finished — he needs the clinch and the first takedown early, then back control. Yanez has spent almost no time wrestling in the UFC, so every scramble is Díaz's territory, and the longer he keeps Yanez carrying weight the more the knockout threat fades.

Why they win
01
Chain wrestling

Five takedowns on eight attempts in his debut, and 3:48 of control in nine minutes.

02
Back-take finishing

Two career wins by rear-naked choke, the latest against Wellmaker in round two.

03
Never stopped

No knockout or submission losses in 18 pro fights; his only defeat was a 2021 decision.

04
Long-fight experience

Three scheduled five-rounders in the Lux Fight League, two decisions and a fourth-round stoppage.

05
Youth and momentum

28 against 32, on a nine-fight winning streak.

The gameplan
  1. 1
    Close distance behind feints

    Reach the clinch without standing in open space where Yanez's combinations land.

  2. 2
    Chain the attempts

    It took eight attempts to land five against Wellmaker; persistence is the plan.

  3. 3
    Take the back

    The rear-naked choke is his UFC finish, and back control is where it starts.

  4. 4
    Bank control

    If the finish does not come, control time wins rounds; half his career wins are decisions.

  5. 5
    Stay out of the pocket

    Yanez's knockouts come from exchanges, and Díaz's path does not need any.

Danger Zone

How Adrian Yanez loses

  • The Simon and Marcos pattern repeats: two or three takedowns, close rounds, and a decision the judges can take away.

  • Díaz takes the back in a scramble after a missed combination, the way Wellmaker's night ended.

  • An early exchange goes wrong. Font and Martinez both stopped him inside two rounds, and he absorbs 5.23 significant strikes a minute.

Danger Zone

How Juan Díaz loses

  • The first shots are stuffed and he is left boxing a man who lands four times as often.

  • He eats the counter on the way in — Garbrandt and Salvador were both finished inside three minutes.

  • The 30-foot cage leaves him chasing across open space, spending energy before he ever reaches the fence.

Strikers vs wrestlers since 2024

Two Kinds of Opponent

Salvador and Garbrandt stood with Yanez and were stopped at 2:47 of round one. Marcos and Simon each landed two takedowns and took him the distance — a split-decision loss and a majority draw.

2:47
the clock on both recent knockouts
Díaz's UFC debut

Out-Landed and Still Finished

Wellmaker won the striking 15–13. Díaz won the fight with five of eight takedowns, 3:48 of control and a rear-naked choke at 4:08 of round two.

5 of 8
takedowns vs Wellmaker
Power in the Octagon

The Knockdown Gap

Yanez has scored eight knockdowns in eleven UFC fights and been dropped three times. Díaz has neither scored nor absorbed one in the UFC.

8
UFC knockdowns by Yanez
Yanez on the mat

Never Submitted

In 25 pro fights Yanez has never lost by submission. His six losses are two knockouts and four decisions, so Díaz's choke has to beat a clean record.

0
submission losses in 25 fights
Díaz's regional run

Five-Round Minutes

Three of Díaz's six Lux Fight League wins came in fights scheduled for five rounds — two decisions and a doctor stoppage after the fourth. Late rounds are not new territory.

3
five-round fights won

The Five-Round Clock

Adrian Yanez danger windowJuan Díaz danger windowNeutral / contested
R1 · 0:00–5:00Yanez's knockout window

Eight of his eighteen career wins ended in round one, and his opening rounds average 23.6 landed. Díaz's first entries have to work here.

Critical Insight
Three rounds, three different fights. Yanez owns the early exchanges, Díaz's finishes have come late in round two, and a fight that reaches round three is the kind Yanez has recently struggled to close.

Finish Threat by Round

Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.

05

The Verdict

One hundred simulated fights, the betting market, and our conviction

If you only read 3 things
1

Yanez's recent loss and draw came against opponents who wrestled him, and Díaz is a wrestler first — that is why this is closer than the résumé gap suggests.

2

If the early takedowns fail, Yanez's power makes a stoppage the most likely single outcome; six of his seven UFC wins ended that way.

3

Díaz's clearest route is his debut again: takedowns, back control and a rear-naked choke, most likely late in round two.

Model outcomes per 100 fights

Each square represents one percentage point of the model distribution, not an observed fight. This visualization does not measure model accuracy or reduce uncertainty in the inputs.

Yanez KO/TKO — 36%Yanez Decision — 18%Yanez Submission — 6%Díaz KO/TKO — 8%Díaz Decision — 14%Díaz Submission — 18%

Each square = 1 model percentage point. Adrian Yanez gold · Juan Díaz orange · color opacity: 100% = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

Striking gap

Yanez lands 5.92 significant strikes a minute across eleven UFC fights; Díaz landed 13 in his one.

The takedown question

Díaz's path runs through takedowns. Yanez has conceded 4 of 16 in the UFC, all in fights he did not win.

Finishing power

Six of Yanez's seven UFC wins are knockouts, five of them inside two rounds.

Submission defence

Yanez has never been submitted in 25 pro fights; the rear-naked choke is Díaz's UFC finish.

One-fight file

Díaz's UFC evidence is nine minutes against Malcolm Wellmaker — clear about the style, thin as a guide to how it scales.

Fight Scripts

0%
of simulations

The Garbrandt Path

Díaz's first entries come up empty, Yanez finds the counter and the fight ends on the feet, most likely inside ten minutes.

Scripted outcomes for Adrian Yanez vs Juan Díaz — how each version of this fight unfolds.

Adrian Yanez win probability
0%
36%
18%
6%
KO/TKODECSUB

  • Six of Yanez's seven UFC wins are knockouts and five came inside two rounds — the single most likely outcome.

  • Takedowns stuffed and volume banked over fifteen minutes, the way he beat Davey Grant.

  • Small: two submission wins in 25 pro fights, none since 2016.

Juan Díaz win probability
0%
8%
14%
18%
KO/TKODECSUB

  • Five career stoppages by strikes, including the Contender Series elbow, but striking is not his UFC identity.

  • Enough takedowns and control to win rounds without the finish — half of his career wins are decisions.

  • The debut script: takedown, back, rear-naked choke. His live upset path.

Projected Scorecards

How the model scores each round
R1
Adrian
R2
Juan
R3
Adrian
29-28 Yanez
Volume takes two rounds; a takedown round goes to Díaz
Most likely card inside Yanez's 18% decision share
30-27 Yanez
Every takedown stuffed
The clean version of the same path
29-28 Díaz
Takedowns and control in two rounds
Most likely card inside Díaz's 14% decision share

Model and price

Adrian Yanez

Insufficient price data
Model win probability
60%
Fair odds
-150
Reference quote
—
Fair decimal odds
1.67
Estimated EV
—
Edge vs no-vig market
—

Juan Díaz

Insufficient price data
Model win probability
40%
Fair odds
+150
Reference quote
—
Fair decimal odds
2.50
Estimated EV
—
Edge vs no-vig market
—

EV uses the displayed price: probability × decimal odds − 1. Edge is a percentage-point difference from a proportionally de-vigged, same-book pair. A dash marks a price without a same-book pair to compare.

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Quotes listed with a date but no time are treated as undated.

Fair odds are the break-even price under this estimate, not a recommended entry price. Model uncertainty can erase a small edge.

What price would change the calculation? · Adrian Yanez

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Required decimal price: 1.67 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

What price would change the calculation? · Juan Díaz

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Required decimal price: 2.50 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

Original analyst price notes

These notes describe the original analysis and may refer to older prices.

Best lean: Yanez by KO/TKO at 36% (fair +178). Díaz by submission at 18% (fair +456) is the upset path. Fight goes the distance 32% (fair +213); ends inside the distance 68% (fair −213).

Conviction
0
5/10

Editorial confidence in the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

The proven UFC finisher is the lean. Díaz's wrestling is a real path, and one UFC fight makes it hard to size. Conviction 5 out of 10. Lean: Adrian Yanez.

What backs the lean

  • 5.92 significant strikes a minute across eleven UFC fights, and six knockouts in seven UFC wins

  • Never submitted in 25 pro fights

  • A first-round knockout of Cody Garbrandt in his most recent fight

  • A 30-foot Octagon that gives a boxer room to stay off the fence

What limits it

  • Díaz landed five of eight takedowns and finished with a rear-naked choke in his only UFC fight

  • Yanez's recent loss and draw both came against opponents who took him down

  • Yanez absorbs 5.23 significant strikes a minute and has been stopped twice in the UFC

  • One UFC fight leaves Díaz's ceiling hard to measure in either direction

Final Assessment

In roughly 60 of 100 readings, Adrian Yanez keeps the fight standing and wins it the way he has won six of his seven UFC fights: by knockout (36%). A decision built on volume accounts for 18%, and a submission for 6%.

In the other 40, Juan Díaz turns it into his debut — chained takedowns, back control — and wins by submission (18%) or on the cards after banking control (14%). A knockout is 8%.

Yanez 60 / Díaz 40, conviction 5 out of 10. The first takedown attempts decide which fight this becomes; if they fail, Yanez's power is the most likely ending.

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