Adrian Yanez vs Juan Díaz: analysis & prediction

PRELIM · BANTAMWEIGHT · 3 ROUNDSUFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit
Adrian Yanez — Bantamweight fighter

Adrian Yanez

18W6L1D
Volume Boxer
VS
Juan Díaz — Bantamweight fighter

Juan Díaz

“Pegajoso”
16W1L1D
Wrestle-to-Choke

A July knockout of Garbrandt against a debutant's five-takedown choke

BantamweightMadison Square Garden, New York CityNovember 14, 202630ft Octagon

Fight overview

The fight in 30 seconds

Yanez's 5.96 SLpM and Garbrandt knockout against Díaz's 5.50 TD/15 and Wellmaker choke — 30 feet for the boxer, fence for the wrestler.

Paths that change the fight

  • Adrian YanezKeep it at the end of the 70-inch reach in a 30-foot cage, land the combination that stopped Garbrandt and Salvador, and stuff the shot at something like the 75% he has posted. He has no submission game on the rate line. The win is strikes or a decision built on strikes.
  • Juan DíazMake it the Wellmaker fight. Five takedowns and a rear-naked choke do not require him to out-point 5.96 SLpM. The spinning elbow is on the Contender Series log. It is not the UFC win.
What limits this estimate · Analyst conviction: 5/10
  • 5.50 TD/15 and a rear-naked choke in his only UFC fight
  • Yanez absorbs 5.24 and has been finished and held to a draw recently

Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

Adrian Yanez

Insufficient price data
Model win probability
60%
Fair decimal odds
1.67
Reference quote—

Juan Díaz

Insufficient price data
Model win probability
40%
Fair decimal odds
2.50
Reference quote—
Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Sources and data limitations

Yanez rate line is through the Simon draw (excludes Garbrandt). Garbrandt KO verified from the July 11, 2026 result. Díaz TD Def 0% is the printed cell, not treated as proof he is taken down at will. Per-round tables omitted. Editorial estimates only.

Model methodology
Read the evidenceInspect prices and assumptions
01

The Frame

What this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it

The Analyst's Take

Three-round bantamweight preliminary in the 30-foot Madison Square Garden Octagon. Adrian Yanez is 18-6-1, matching the announced sheet. An older listing still heads at 17-6-1 and still lists Cody Garbrandt as a future fight. The July 11, 2026 result is a knockout win for Yanez at 2:47 of round one. The career averages below stop before that win. Fight-night age 32, orthodox, 5'7" with a 70" reach. Line through the Ricky Simon draw: 5.96 SLpM, 41% accuracy, 56% striking defence, 5.24 SApM, 0.00 TD/15, 75% takedown defence and 0.0 Sub/15. Juan "Pegajoso" Díaz is 16-1-1, fight-night age 28, orthodox, 5'8" with a 69" reach. His line includes one UFC win and one Contender Series win: 3.72 SLpM, 41% accuracy, 59% striking defence, 3.40 SApM, 5.50 TD/15 at 50% and 0.8 Sub/15. A printed 0% takedown defence is on the sheet. In the Wellmaker fight Díaz landed 5 takedowns and Wellmaker landed 0, so the cell is not proof that every shot against him lands. No BetOnline price was on the September 22, 2026 board. We take Yanez 60% / Díaz 40% at conviction 5 / 10.

Adrian Yanez
Attribute
Juan Díaz
32
Age
Nov 29, 1993 vs Jun 3, 199828
5'7"
Height
+1" Díaz5'8"
70"+1" Yanez
Reach
69"
N/A
Leg Reach
N/A
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
#24 BW
Card Rank
#52 BW
32
Announced SOS
3
11
UFC Sample
1
Volume boxing, no wrestling
Fighting Style
Chain wrestle to the choke

Díaz is +1" in height. Yanez is +1" in reach and four years older. Yanez does not shoot. Díaz's takedown rate is the whole upset. The pair is a small UFC sample because Díaz has one roster fight.

Venue Factor
Madison Square Garden is 30 feet. That is Yanez's cage if he can keep a wrestler from completing the shot. It is a lot of space for a man at 0.00 TD/15, and a lot of fence for a man at 5.50.
02

The Fighters

Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage

Adrian Yanez

Adrian Yanez

Pro Record
18-6-1
UFC Record
11 UFC sample — Garbrandt KO sits atop a line that still excludes it from averages
Streak
Knockout of Garbrandt after a majority draw with Simon
Finish Rate
Recent pattern is finishes both ways and the occasional decision
Avg Fight Time
Recent knockouts cluster near 2:47; Simon and Marcos went the distance
Chin · Has been finished (Font, Martinez) and held to a draw recentlySOS · Announced 32High-Volume Boxer

Yanez is a volume boxer who just knocked out a former champion and does not wrestle. The Garbrandt win is real; the rate line through Simon is what the composites use.

Juan Díaz

Juan Díaz

Pro Record
16-1-1
UFC Record
1-0 — rear-naked choke of Malcolm Wellmaker R2 4:08 (May 16, 2026)
Streak
Two measured wins ending in round two (Wellmaker UFC, Kwon DWCS)
Finish Rate
Both measured wins finished — choke and spinning elbow
Avg Fight Time
Wellmaker ended late R2; Kwon late R2 on Contender Series
Chin · No UFC loss on the logSOS · Announced 3Wrestle-to-Submission Debutant

Díaz is a debutant whose one UFC win was a choke after five takedowns. Against Wellmaker significant strikes were 13-15 and takedowns 5-0. The finish was the choke, not the punch count.

Adrian Yanez
0 dealt · 0 absorbed
Knockdown Exchange
KD dealt vs absorbed. A dash means that figure was not published.
Juan Díaz
0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Adrian Yanezsignature weapons

Volume Boxing5.96 SLpM through Simon; Garbrandt and Salvador both R1 KO at 2:47
×2
Takedown Defence75% TDD on the long line — must hold for the striking edge to matter
×0

Juan Díazsignature weapons

Chain Wrestling5.50 TD/15 at 50% — five takedowns vs Wellmaker
×1
Rear-Naked ChokeWellmaker R2 4:08 — the UFC win identity
×1

Adrian Yanez

W
Cody Garbrandt
KO/TKO — punches

Opponent context: veteran

RR1 (2:47)
Jul 11, 2026
D
Ricky Simon
Majority draw

Opponent context: veteran

RR3
Mar 28, 2026
L
Daniel Marcos
Split decision

Opponent context: prospect

RR3
Dec 14, 2024
W
Vinicius Salvador
KO/TKO — punches

Opponent context: prospect

RR1 (2:47)
May 18, 2024
L
Jonathan Martinez
KO/TKO — kicks

Opponent context: veteran

RR2 (2:26)
Oct 14, 2023
Pattern

Yanez's last win was a first-round knockout. The fight before that was a draw. Finishes cluster early; wrestlers (Marcos, Simon) have made nights competitive without finishing him.

Juan Díaz

W
Malcolm Wellmaker
Rear-naked choke

Opponent context: prospect

RR2 (4:08)
May 16, 2026 · UFC
W
Kwon Wonil
KO/TKO — spinning back elbow

Opponent context: prospect

RR2 (4:58)
Oct 14, 2025 · DWCS
Pattern

Díaz has not been to a decision on the measured page. Both wins ended in round two. The UFC identity is five takedowns and a choke.

Adrian Yanez

Win Methods
Wins by Round

Juan Díaz

Win Methods
Wins by Round
Critical Insight
Accuracy ties at 41%. Yanez lands almost two more strikes per minute and absorbs more. Díaz wins the fight he just won by ignoring that table and taking the neck.

Opposition strength (no shared opponents)

Without a reliable shared-opponent table, compare who each fighter has been tested against using SOS tier, UFC sample size, and recent elite-tier form — not raw records alone.

FactorAdrianJuan
Strength of schedule (SOS tier)Announced 32 — 11 UFC bouts against 1 — sample gap matches SOSAnnounced 3 — One UFC fight; 16-1-1 includes wins not clocked here
UFC sample11 UFC sample — Garbrandt KO sits atop a line that still excludes it from averages1-0 — rear-naked choke of Malcolm Wellmaker R2 4:08 (May 16, 2026)
Recent ranked / elite touches (last 5)0 elite · 3 veteran tier0 elite · 0 veteran tier
Form-window difficulty edge: Fighter A (8 vs 2 tier points in listed bouts).
Last three opponentsCody Garbrandt, Ricky Simon, Daniel MarcosMalcolm Wellmaker, Kwon Wonil
03

The Numbers

Composites, division ranks and round-by-round evidence

Composite scores summarize selected statistics on a 0–100 scale. They are not win probabilities. Compare the underlying metrics, opponent quality and sample flags before interpreting a score difference as a matchup advantage.

Striking

Output · Acc · Def

0
Adrian
0
Juan

5.96 SLpM and a fresh knockout of Garbrandt. Díaz 3.72, with a DWCS spinning elbow

Grappling

TD · TDD · Sub

0
Adrian
0
Juan

Yanez 0.00 TD/15 and 0.0 Sub/15. Díaz 5.50 TD/15 and a UFC choke

Form

Recent results

0
Adrian
0
Juan

Yanez won, then drew. Díaz won his only roster fight

Sample

UFC bouts

0
Adrian
0
Juan

11 UFC bouts against 1

Overall

Editorial blend

0
Adrian
0
Juan

Striking and the sample, with the wrestling left as the upset

MetricAdrianJuan
SLpM5.963.72
SApM5.243.40
TD/150.005.50
TD Def75%0%*
UFC Fights111

Archetype Base Rate

UFC Volume Boxer 60%40% One-Fight Wrestler

Editorial — striking sample vs wrestling debut · Lean follows the man with 11 UFC fights and the Garbrandt knockout; conviction held by the 5.50 TD rate.

Adrian YanezJuan Díaz

Bantamweight

StatAdrianAdrian rankDiv avgJuan rankJuan
SLpM5.96———3.72
Str Acc41%———41%
Str Def56%———59%
SApM5.24———3.40
TD/150.00———5.50
TD Acc0%———50%
TD Def75%———0% printed
Sub/150.0———0.8
Reach70"———69"
UFC fights11———1
Card rank#24———#52
Statistical Verdict
Same accuracy. Yanez throws more and gets hit more. Díaz defends strikes a little better on a tiny sample and wrestles at a rate Yanez has not had to answer at 5.50 per 15 minutes. Yanez's 75% takedown defence is the longer sample. It has to hold for the striking edge to matter.

Significant Strikes Landed per Round

Round-by-round significant-strike figures are unavailable for this comparison. Missing observations are not zero strikes.

Control Time per Round (sec)

Round-by-round control-time figures are unavailable for this comparison. Missing observations are not zero seconds of control.

Adrian Yanez

  • Per-round strike tables omitted.
  • Recent knockouts cluster early: 2:47, 2:47, 2:26; Font loss at 2:57 R1.
  • Simon draw and Marcos loss went the distance.

Juan Díaz

  • Per-round strike tables omitted.
  • Both measured finishes late in round two.
  • Wellmaker: 13-15 strikes, 5-0 takedowns, choke finish.
Critical Insight
A first-round blitz favors the man who just did it to Garbrandt. A long wrestling fight favors the debutant.

Strike targeting (available rounds)

Strike-target figures are unavailable for this comparison.

Head hunting vs body work vs leg attack — the shape of the damage. Unavailable strike-target figures are omitted rather than shown as 0%.

Striking range — distance, clinch and ground

Adrian · N/AJuan · N/A

The distribution of strikes by range is unavailable for this comparison.

Approximate share of significant strikes by range in available rounds, weighted by strike volume. Incomplete splits are excluded. Debutants / fighters without Octagon samples show as N/A.

04

The Story of the Fight

Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath

Where the fight lives

Who owns each phase — and by how much
Open SpaceAdrian owns it

5.96 SLpM and +1" reach in 30 feet

Pocket / ExchangesAdrian owns it

Volume boxing — also where he gets hit at 5.24

ClinchJuan owns it

5.50 TD/15 is the entry

GroundJuan owns it

Wellmaker choke — Yanez Sub/15 is 0.0

The Deep Read

Yanez is a volume boxer who just knocked out a former champion and does not wrestle. Díaz is a debutant whose one UFC win was a choke after five takedowns. The 30-foot cage is the variable, not the résumés.

Yanez's UFC pattern is a high-volume striking fight that ends early or goes to the cards. Marcos and Simon both took him down twice without finishing him. Díaz's UFC pattern is one finish: thirteen significant strikes, five takedowns, one choke.

The lean follows the man with eleven UFC fights and the Garbrandt knockout. The debutant's choke is why 40 is real. Yanez 60 / Díaz 40, conviction 5.

Path to Victory

Adrian Yanez

Keep it at the end of the 70-inch reach in a 30-foot cage, land the combination that stopped Garbrandt and Salvador, and stuff the shot at something like the 75% he has posted. He has no submission game on the rate line. The win is strikes or a decision built on strikes.

Why they win
01
11 UFC fights

Against 1 — sample and announced SOS 32 vs 3.

02
5.96 SLpM

And a July knockout of Garbrandt.

03
+1" reach

70" in a 30-foot cage.

04
75% TDD

On the longer sample — has to hold.

The gameplan
  1. 1
    Circle, stay off the fence

    Punish the level change. Shooting back is not his game — rate is 0.00.

  2. 2
    Land the Garbrandt combo

    First-round blitz is the base case.

  3. 3
    Trust 75% TDD

    If it holds, striking decides it.

Path to Victory

Juan Díaz

Make it the Wellmaker fight. Five takedowns and a rear-naked choke do not require him to out-point 5.96 SLpM. The spinning elbow is on the Contender Series log. It is not the UFC win.

Why they win
01
5.50 TD/15

At 50% — the whole upset.

02
UFC choke

Wellmaker rear-naked choke R2 4:08.

03
Four years younger

28 against 32.

04
+1" height

And a 16-1-1 record.

The gameplan
  1. 1
    Chain wrestle early

    Before a 30-foot kickboxing fight turns into the Garbrandt round.

  2. 2
    Hunt the neck

    Wellmaker path — not the spinning elbow.

  3. 3
    Ignore the punch table

    13-15 against Wellmaker still became a choke win.

Danger Zone

How Adrian Yanez loses

  • Wellmaker replication — five takedowns and a choke.

  • Fence cycles that erase the 30-foot lane.

  • Chin tax at 5.24 SApM in a pocket fight.

Danger Zone

How Juan Díaz loses

  • Garbrandt round — Yanez lands the combination early.

  • Shots stuffed at 75% TDD, then volume wins minutes.

  • 30-foot kickboxing turns into the volume fight he cannot win on the punch count.

Older listing is stale

Rates Exclude Garbrandt

An older listing still headed 17-6-1 with Garbrandt as a future fight. July 11 KO at R1 2:47 is verified; averages stop before it.

5.96
SLpM through Simon
Díaz's only UFC night

Wellmaker Blueprint

5 takedowns, 13-15 strikes, rear-naked choke R2 4:08 — the upset path.

5.50
TD/15
Not gospel

Printed 0% TDD

Wellmaker landed 0 takedowns. The cell is not proof every shot against Díaz lands.

SOS 32 vs 3

Sample Gap

11 UFC bouts against 1. Announced SOS says the same thing as the sample file.

11
vs 1 UFC fight

The Five-Round Clock

Adrian Yanez danger windowJuan Díaz danger windowNeutral / contested
R1 · 0:00–5:00Garbrandt window

Yanez knockouts at 2:47 twice. Highest finish equity for the favorite.

Critical Insight
Three rounds. Early blitz favors Yanez. Late wrestling favors Díaz.

Finish Threat by Round

Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.

05

The Verdict

One hundred simulated fights, the betting market, and our conviction

If you only read 3 things
1

Yanez 60% / Díaz 40%, conviction 5/10 — volume striker lean; debutant's choke is the live upset.

2

Yanez rates exclude Garbrandt (through Simon). Fair −150 / +150. No BetOnline quote.

3

Best lean: Yanez by KO/TKO at 36%. Díaz by submission at 18% is the wrestling path.

Model outcomes per 100 fights

Each square represents one percentage point of the model distribution, not an observed fight. This visualization does not measure model accuracy or reduce uncertainty in the inputs.

Yanez KO/TKO — 36%Yanez Decision — 18%Yanez Submission — 6%Díaz KO/TKO — 8%Díaz Decision — 14%Díaz Submission — 18%

Each square = 1 simulated fight. Adrian Yanez gold · Juan Díaz orange · full color = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

Volume and Garbrandt

5.96 SLpM and a July knockout of a former champion.

Sample gap

11 UFC fights against 1.

Wrestling upset

5.50 TD/15 and the Wellmaker choke keep Díaz at 40%.

30-foot cage

Helps the man who does not need the fence — if the shot is stuffed.

Stale striking line

Rates exclude Garbrandt, so the striking edge is slightly stale in Yanez's favor.

Fight Scripts

0%
of simulations

The Garbrandt Path

Yanez by KO/TKO — largest bucket, Salvador template at 2:47.

Scripted outcomes for Adrian Yanez vs Juan Díaz — how each version of this fight unfolds.

Adrian Yanez win probability
0%
36%
18%
6%
KO/TKODECSUB

  • Thirty-six points — Garbrandt and Salvador path.

  • Eighteen points — if Díaz shoots, gets denied, and volume wins minutes.

  • Six points — stays small because the UFC rate is 0.0.

Juan Díaz win probability
0%
8%
14%
18%
KO/TKODECSUB

  • Eight points — spinning elbow is Contender Series, not the UFC identity.

  • Fourteen points — takedowns land, choke does not.

  • Eighteen points — Wellmaker choke. His live number.

Projected Scorecards

How the model scores each round
R1
Adrian
R2
Adrian
R3
Juan
29-28 Yanez
Volume early, wrestling late
Inside Yanez's 18% decision share
29-28 Díaz
Control minutes without the choke
Primary path inside 14% decision share
30-27 Yanez
Boxing control all three
Live if 75% TDD holds every round

Model and price

Adrian Yanez

Insufficient price data
Model win probability
60%
Fair decimal odds
1.67
Reference quote—
Estimated EV
—
Edge vs no-vig market
—

Juan Díaz

Insufficient price data
Model win probability
40%
Fair decimal odds
2.50
Reference quote—
Estimated EV
—
Edge vs no-vig market
—

EV uses the displayed price: probability × decimal odds − 1. Edge is a percentage-point difference from a proportionally de-vigged, same-book pair. A dash means that comparison is unavailable.

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Fair odds are the break-even price under this estimate, not a recommended entry price. Model uncertainty can erase a small edge.

What price would change the calculation? · Adrian Yanez

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Required decimal price: 1.67 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

What price would change the calculation? · Juan Díaz

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Required decimal price: 2.50 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

Full prop table (0)Expand for odds, model %, implied % and analyst verdict per prop

No prop prices recorded in this analysis.

Original analyst price notes

These notes describe the original analysis and may refer to older prices.

Best lean: Yanez by KO/TKO at 36% (fair +178). Díaz by submission at 18% (fair +456) is the wrestling upset. Distance 32% (fair +213); inside 68% (fair −213).

Conviction
0
5/10

Editorial confidence in the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

The volume striker is the lean. The debutant's choke is the path that makes 40 real. Conviction 5/10. Lean: Adrian Yanez.

What backs the lean

  • 5.96 SLpM against 3.72, and a knockout of Cody Garbrandt in July

  • 11 UFC fights against 1

  • 75% takedown defence on the longer sample

  • A 30-foot cage for a man who does not need the fence

What limits it

  • 5.50 TD/15 and a rear-naked choke in his only UFC fight

  • Yanez absorbs 5.24 and has been finished and held to a draw recently

  • The career line does not yet include the Garbrandt win, so the striking edge is slightly stale in his favor

  • One roster fight is a thin place to hang a 60

Final Assessment

In roughly 60 of 100 readings, Adrian Yanez keeps the fight in space, lands the boxing that just stopped Garbrandt, and wins by KO/TKO (36%) or a decision (18%). The submission share is 6%.

In the other 40, Juan Díaz completes the shot he completed five times against Wellmaker and wins by submission (18%) or a decision (14%). The knockout share is 8%.

Yanez 60 / Díaz 40, conviction 5 out of 10. The volume striker is the lean. The debutant's choke is the path that makes 40 real.

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