MAIN CARD · WELTERWEIGHT · 3 ROUNDSUFC 332: Silva vs. Wang
Khaos Williams — Welterweight fighter

Khaos Williams

16W5L
Power Puncher
…
VS
Roberto Soldić — Welterweight fighter

Roberto Soldić

“Robocop”
21W4L
Knockout Pressure Boxer
…

Eighteen knockouts and a nineteen-month layoff against the softest defensive line on the card

WelterweightDelta Center, Salt Lake City, Utah, United StatesOctober 3, 2026Standard 30ft Octagon · 4,300 ft elevation
01

The Frame

What this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it

The Analyst's Take

The lowest-conviction call on the main card, and the reason is that one half of it is entirely unmeasured. Roberto Soldić is one of the best fighters never to have appeared in the Octagon: a two-time KSW welterweight champion who held the middleweight belt at the same time, with eighteen knockouts in twenty-one wins — an 86% knockout rate — including Mamed Khalidov, Michał Materla and a 115-second finish of Saygid Guseyn Arslanaliev. He is also 31, has fought twice since May 2023, and last competed on February 20, 2025. Khaos Williams is the opposite kind of problem. He has ten UFC bouts, 46 scored rounds and a well-documented profile, and the documentation is unkind: 39% striking accuracy, 41% striking defence, 5.34 significant strikes absorbed per minute and 52% takedown defence, all the worst figures on this main card. He has never been knocked out in twenty-one professional fights — his only stoppage loss is a submission to Gabriel Bonfim — and eight of his ten career finishes landed in Round 1. Neither man wrestles: two career submissions between them and zero takedown attempts per fifteen minutes from Williams. This is a punching contest between a proven knockout artist with no Octagon data and a durable puncher who is very easy to hit. Model: Soldić 53% / Williams 47%, conviction 3/10.

Khaos Williams
Attribute
Roberto Soldić
32
Age
31
6'0" (72")
Height
5'10" (70")
77"+3" Williams
Reach
74"
Power puncher — nine knockouts, no submissions
Fighting Style
Knockout pressure boxer — eighteen knockouts
South Bend, Indiana, United States
Origin
Vitez, Bosnia and Herzegovina — fights for Croatia
10 UFC bouts, 46 scored rounds
Octagon Experience
None — debut
None
Titles
Two-time KSW Welterweight Champion; KSW Middleweight Champion
May 16, 2026 — KO/TKO of Nikolay Veretennikov
Last Fight
February 20, 2025 — KO of Saygid Guseyn Arslanaliev (ONE 171)

Three inches of reach and two of height to Williams, at almost identical age. In most welterweight fights that would be the headline; here it is a footnote, because the man giving up the reach has spent a career walking through it. Soldić's KSW title run was built on closing distance against taller, longer opponents — Michał Materla and Mamed Khalidov both had frame on him — and Williams's own numbers say the reach has never protected him: 41% striking defence and 5.34 significant strikes absorbed per minute across ten Octagon bouts.

Venue Factor
The Delta Center's 4,300 feet is a variable neither man can prepare for from experience — Williams has never fought at altitude and Soldić has not fought anywhere in nineteen months. Over three rounds it matters most to the fighter whose gas tank is least recently tested, and that is unambiguously the debutant.
02

The Fighters

Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage

Khaos Williams, UFC welterweight

Khaos Williams

Pro Record
16-5-0
UFC Record
7-5 in ten scored Octagon bouts
Streak
Coming off a first-round knockout
Finish Rate
63% (10 of 16 wins) — 9 KO/TKO, 1 submission, 6 decisions
Avg Fight Time
9:16 in the UFC
Chin · Solid — never knocked outSOS · Mid-tier welterweightPower puncher

Six years in the UFC and still defined by the same twenty-seven seconds — the debut knockout of Alex Morono in 2020. Williams has since built a 7-5 Octagon record on power and very little else: nine career knockouts, one submission, and a defensive line that has never improved. He absorbs 5.34 significant strikes per minute behind 41% striking defence, both the worst figures on this main card, and defends only 52% of takedowns. The last three fights read as the whole career in miniature — a Round-2 submission loss to Gabriel Bonfim, a decision loss to Andreas Gustafsson, then a first-round knockout of Nikolay Veretennikov in May 2026. He has never been knocked out, and 79-95% of his offence lands at distance.

Roberto Soldić — no published headshot; UFC.com silhouette placeholder

Roberto Soldić

Pro Record
21-4-0 (1 NC)
UFC Record
0-0 — Octagon debut
Streak
Coming off a 115-second knockout at ONE 171
Finish Rate
90% (19 of 21 wins) — 18 KO/TKO, 1 submission, 2 decisions
Avg Fight Time
No UFC cage time
Chin · Stopped once — Zebaztian Kadestam, 2023SOS · Elite outside the UFCKnockout pressure boxer

One of the best fighters never to appear in the Octagon, arriving four years later than anyone expected. Soldić held the KSW welterweight title twice and the middleweight title simultaneously, knocking out Michał Materla, Patrik Kincl and — most famously — Mamed Khalidov in the second round at KSW 65 in December 2021. He signed with ONE Championship in 2022, went 1-1 with a no-contest across three years of near-total inactivity, and knocked out Saygid Guseyn Arslanaliev in 115 seconds at ONE 171 in February 2025. That is his only fight since May 2023. Eighteen of his twenty-one wins are knockouts — a 86% knockout rate that is the highest number on this card — and he arrives on a nineteen-month layoff with zero Octagon data of any kind.

Khaos Williams
0 dealt · 0 absorbed
Knockdown Exchange
KD dealt vs absorbed
Roberto Soldić
0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Khaos Williamssignature weapons

The First-Round KnockoutEight of his ten career finishes landed in Round 1, including Veretennikov at 3:31 in May 2026 and Carlston Harris at 1:30
×9
Three Inches of Reach77 inches against 74, with 79.9%, 91.6% and 95.2% of his offence landing at distance across the three rounds
×16

Roberto Soldićsignature weapons

The Overhand RightEighteen knockouts in twenty-one wins — an 86% knockout rate — including Mamed Khalidov, Michał Materla and Saygid Guseyn Arslanaliev in 115 seconds
×18
Championship PressureTwo-time KSW welterweight champion and simultaneous middleweight champion; nineteen of twenty-one wins came inside the distance
×19

Khaos Williams

W
Nikolay Veretennikov
KO/TKO
RR1 (3:31)
UFC FN: Allen vs. Costa — May 16, 2026
L
Andreas Gustafsson
Decision — Unanimous
RR3
UFC 316 — Jun 7, 2025
L
Gabriel Bonfim
Submission
RR2 (4:58)
UFC FN: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues — Feb 15, 2025
W
Carlston Harris
KO/TKO
RR1 (1:30)
UFC FN: Barboza vs. Murphy — May 18, 2024
W
Rolando Bedoya
Decision — Split
RR3
UFC 288 — May 6, 2023
Pattern

Two losses then a knockout, which is the shape of his whole career. The Gabriel Bonfim submission in February 2025 is the only finish against him in twenty-one fights and it came from a phase Soldić does not operate in; the Gustafsson decision loss is the more relevant one, because it shows what happens when someone durable simply out-works him for fifteen minutes. The Veretennikov knockout in May 2026 restored the thing he is actually good at.

Roberto Soldić

W
Saygid Guseyn Arslanaliev
KO (punch)
RR1 (1:55)
ONE 171 — Feb 20, 2025
L
Zebaztian Kadestam
TKO (punches)
RR2 (0:45)
ONE Fight Night 10 — May 5, 2023
NC
Murad Ramazanov
No Contest — accidental foul
RR1 (2:01)
ONE on Prime Video 5 — Dec 3, 2022
W
Mamed Khalidov
KO (punch)
RR2 (3:40)
KSW 65 — Dec 18, 2021
W
Patrik Kincl
TKO (punches)
RR3 (2:55)
KSW 63 — Sep 4, 2021
Pattern

Three fights in five years, and one of them a no-contest. What is in the sample is spectacular — a second-round knockout of Mamed Khalidov, a 115-second knockout of Saygid Guseyn Arslanaliev — and what is missing is everything in between. The Kadestam TKO loss in May 2023 is the only blueprint anyone has produced, and it came from sustained pressure rather than a single shot.

Khaos Williams

Win Methods
Wins by Round

Roberto Soldić

Win Methods
Wins by Round
Critical Insight
Two of the most finish-heavy charts in this analysis set, and both close exactly — Williams 9 knockouts, 1 submission and 6 decisions in 16 wins; Soldić 18, 1 and 2 in 21. Soldić's 86% knockout rate is the highest number on the card in any category. What the round columns add is a warning for both men: eight of Williams's ten finishes and eleven of Soldić's nineteen landed in Round 1, which means the opening five minutes carry roughly a third of the total finishing equity in this bout. The combined submission total is two, across thirty-seven professional wins.

Common Opponents

OpponentKhaosRoberto
Gabriel Bonfim (blueprint)L· Submission R2 4:58 (Feb 2025)—never faced
The only stoppage loss of Williams's career and the template against him: 52% takedown defence met a real grappler. Soldić is not one, which is why this fight stays standing
Mamed Khalidov and Saygid Guseyn Arslanaliev (level proxies)—has not beaten a name at this levelW· KO R2 over Khalidov; W · KO R1 over Arslanaliev
Soldić's best wins are better than anything on Williams's record — they were simply not produced in the UFC
Zebaztian Kadestam (the one blueprint against Soldić)—never facedL· TKO R2 0:45 (May 2023)
The only time anyone has stopped Soldić, and it came from sustained pressure rather than a single shot
03

The Numbers

Composites, division ranks and round-by-round evidence

Striking

SLpM 25% · StrAcc 30% · StrDef 30% · SApM 15%

0
Khaos
0
Robertosmall sample

Williams's score is measured and poor: 39% accuracy, 41% striking defence and 5.34 significant strikes absorbed per minute, all well below the welterweight baseline and all the worst figures on this main card. Soldić's is career-derived rather than rate-derived, because no UFC rate line exists for him — it reflects eighteen knockouts in twenty-one wins against genuine championship opposition, and it carries a small-sample flag because none of it happened in this promotion.

Grappling

TD/15 25% · TDAcc 25% · TDDef 30% · Sub/15 20%

0
Khaos
0
Robertosmall sample

The lowest grappling score in this entire analysis set belongs to Williams: zero takedowns attempted per fifteen minutes, zero submission attempts, and 52% takedown defence — the number Gabriel Bonfim exploited to submit him in February 2025. Soldić's figure is career-estimated and modest; he is not a grappler either, but he has never been the one taken down.

Technical

(Striking + Grappling) / 2

0.0
Khaos
0
Roberto

A thirty-point gap that the model deliberately does not honour. Soldić's half of it is unmeasured, and the model prices him at 53% rather than 70% precisely because a career built entirely outside the UFC is not evidence about the UFC.

Cardio

Fight time · pace curve · rounds contested · layoff

0
Khaos
0
Robertosmall sample

Williams's only clear column. He has 46 scored UFC rounds and an average fight time of 9:16, with output rising from 17.4 to 23.9 to 24.2 across three rounds. Soldić has fought once since May 2023 — a nineteen-month layoff into an Octagon debut — and his career average fight time is short by design: nineteen of twenty-one wins ended early. Deep water is the one place he has almost no recent evidence.

Overall

(Technical + Cardio) / 2

0.0
Khaos
0.0
Roberto

Ten points, against a model line of six. The gauges reward a career résumé that the projection discounts for being earned somewhere else, after a nineteen-month layoff, with no Octagon data at all.

MetricKhaosRoberto
Avg Fight Time9:16 (UFC)No UFC cage timesmall sample
Pace Tier4.97 SLpM at 39% accuracyNot found — no UFC boutssmall sample
R3/R1 Output24.2 / 17.4 — up 39%Not found — no UFC boutssmall sample
Damage Absorbed5.34 per minute — worst on the main cardNot foundsmall sample
Knockout Rate56% (9 of 16 wins)86% (18 of 21 wins)

Archetype Base Rate

Power Puncher 47%53% Knockout Pressure Boxer

No archetype base-rate row exists for this pairing · No historical archetype rate is applied. The 53/47 rests on an 86% knockout rate against the softest defensive line on this main card — 41% striking defence, 5.34 significant strikes absorbed per minute — and on a résumé containing Mamed Khalidov and Saygid Guseyn Arslanaliev. It is held to six points by a nineteen-month layoff, an Octagon debut at 31, three inches of reach the other way, and the plain fact that Khaos Williams has never been knocked out in twenty-one professional fights.

Khaos WilliamsRoberto Soldić

Welterweight

· 48 fighters
StatKhaosKhaos rankDiv avgRoberto rankRoberto
SLpM4.97—~3.79—Not found — no UFC bouts
Str Acc39%—~47%—Not found
Str Def41%—~56%—Not found
SApM5.34—~3.61—Not found
TD/150.00—~1.58—Not found
TD Def52%—~64%—Not found
Sub/150.00—~0.47—Not found
Pro Record16-5-0———21-4-0 (1 NC)
Knockout Wins9 of 16 (56%)———18 of 21 (86%)
Times Finished1 — submission———1 — TKO
Scored UFC Rounds46———0
Statistical Verdict
Half this table is empty and the half that is filled is a warning. Williams sits below the welterweight baseline on accuracy by eight points, on striking defence by fifteen, on takedown defence by twelve, and above it on damage absorbed by 1.73 strikes a minute. Those are not marginal deficits — they are the profile of a fighter who wins by landing first and loses when he does not. The rows that survive on Soldić's side are the career ones, and they are formidable: 21-4 with eighteen knockouts, one stoppage loss in twenty-six fights, and two KSW titles held simultaneously. The single row that matters most is the last one: 46 scored UFC rounds against zero.

Significant Strikes Landed per Round

⚠ R1, R2, R3: single-fight sample for Roberto Soldić

Control Time per Round (sec)

Khaos Williams

  • Output rises 39% across the fight — 17.4, 23.9, 24.2 landed — while accuracy stays flat between 36.8% and 41.4%. He gets busier without getting cleaner.
  • His knockdown average is 0.30 in the first round and 0.33 in the third, with nothing in the second. The power is genuinely there at both ends of the fight.
  • A pure distance striker who becomes more so as the fight goes on: 79.9%, 91.6% and 95.2% of his offence lands at range, with control time falling from 42 seconds to 16.
  • The leg-kick investment is real and unusual for him — 28.2%, 38.9% and 29.0% of his landed strikes go low, the highest share of any fighter on this main card.

Roberto Soldić

  • No round-by-round row exists for Roberto Soldić in any UFC database, because he has never fought in the UFC. Nothing above is estimated.
  • What the verified 26-bout record shows instead: eighteen knockouts in twenty-one wins, eleven of them in the opening round, including Michał Materla at 4:40 of the first and Saygid Guseyn Arslanaliev at 1:55.
  • He has been past the second round three times in his professional career and owns two decisions in twenty-six fights. Deep water is the least-documented part of an already thin recent sample.
  • His only stoppage loss came at 0:45 of the second round to Zebaztian Kadestam in May 2023 — the one time an opponent got him moving backwards and kept him there.
Critical Insight
One chart is real and one is empty, and the empty one belongs to the favourite. Williams's curve is legible and unflattering: more volume every round, no more accuracy, and a defensive line that has never improved in six years. Soldić's contribution to this section is a career log rather than a table — eleven first-round finishes out of nineteen, and three rounds past the second in twenty-six fights. Read together they say the same thing from opposite directions: the first five minutes carry an enormous share of this fight's equity, and after them the man with 46 scored Octagon rounds has evidence and the man with zero does not.

Strike Targeting (career avg)

Head hunting vs body work vs leg attack — the shape of the damage. Fighters without UFC samples are omitted rather than shown as 0%.

Range Profile — where the minutes go

KhaosRoberto · N/A
89%Distance—
8%Clinch—
3%Ground—

Share of significant-strike volume by range from UFC career data. Debutants / fighters without Octagon samples show as N/A.

04

The Story of the Fight

Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath

Where the fight lives

Who owns each phase — and by how much
Open SpaceKhaos owns it

Three inches of reach and 79-95% distance work — the one measured column Williams leads, against an unmeasured opponent

Pocket / ExchangesRoberto owns it

Eighteen knockouts against nine, aimed at 41% striking defence and 5.34 significant strikes absorbed per minute

ClinchRoberto owns it

Soldić's KSW title run was built on pressure and clinch entries; Williams puts 2-12% of his offence there and defends 52% of takedowns

GroundRoberto owns it

Effectively absent — two career submissions between them — but Williams is the one who has been submitted, and by the only grappler he has faced

Path to Victory

Khaos Williams

Get past the first round and make it long. Every round after the tenth minute is one his opponent has almost never fought.

Why they win
01
Ten UFC bouts and 46 scored rounds

Against zero. Every measured column in this fight belongs to him by default, and Octagon-specific experience is not nothing at this level.

02
Never knocked out

Twenty-one professional fights and one stoppage loss, and that was a submission. Against an 86% knockout artist, durability is the most valuable trait he owns.

03
Three inches of reach

77 inches against 74, with 95.2% of his third-round offence landing at distance.

04
Rising output

17.4 to 23.9 to 24.2 landed across three rounds, against a man with two decisions in twenty-six fights.

05
His own first-round power

Eight of his ten career finishes landed in the opening round and his Round-1 knockdown average is 0.30. The debutant is not the only one who can end it early.

06
A recent, clean camp

He fought in May 2026 and won by knockout. Soldić has fought once since May 2023.

The gameplan
  1. 1
    Survive the first five minutes

    Eleven of Soldić's nineteen finishes landed there. Everything Williams can win in this fight sits on the other side of the opening horn.

  2. 2
    Use the reach and the leg kicks

    28-39% of his landed strikes already go low. Against a pressure fighter with a nineteen-month layoff, the lead leg is the cheapest way to slow the walk-down.

  3. 3
    Do not stand in the pocket

    His 41% striking defence is the softest surface in the bout and Soldić has eighteen knockouts. Range is not a preference here, it is a requirement.

  4. 4
    Make it a third round

    His output rises 39% across the fight; Soldić has two career decisions and no Octagon cage time. Minute eleven is Williams's best friend.

  5. 5
    Test the clinch defensively, not offensively

    He attempts no takedowns and defends 52%. The goal is to avoid the tie-up, not to win it.

  6. 6
    Contingency — if Plan A fails

    If he is hurt early, the answer is movement and the clock rather than a firefight. Nobody has knocked him out in twenty-one fights, and surviving five minutes changes the whole projection.

Path to Victory

Roberto Soldić

Land the overhand. Eighteen knockouts against 41% striking defence is the cleanest mismatch on the card.

Why they win
01
An 86% knockout rate

Eighteen knockouts in twenty-one wins — the highest finishing rate on this card in any category — against the softest defensive line on the main card.

02
A materially better résumé

Mamed Khalidov, Michał Materla, Patrik Kincl and Saygid Guseyn Arslanaliev, all by knockout. Williams has not beaten anyone at that level.

03
Two KSW titles held at once

Welterweight and middleweight simultaneously — the kind of career that does not usually arrive in the UFC this late.

04
Williams absorbs 5.34 a minute

Behind 41% striking defence, both the worst numbers on this main card and precisely the surface an overhand right is built for.

05
Eleven first-round finishes

Including a 115-second knockout of Arslanaliev in his most recent fight, which is the closest thing to current form he has.

06
Williams stuffs only 52% of takedowns

Not because Soldić wrestles, but because it means any clinch or trip Soldić wants is available to him.

The gameplan
  1. 1
    Walk him down immediately

    Eleven first-round finishes and an opponent absorbing 5.34 significant strikes a minute. The longer this goes, the more the layoff costs.

  2. 2
    Cut the cage, do not chase

    Williams lands 95% of his third-round offence at distance. Taking the angles away is worth more than closing straight lines.

  3. 3
    Attack the body early

    It is the fastest way to make a 39%-accuracy opponent stop moving, and it hedges against the third round Soldić has almost never fought.

  4. 4
    Use the clinch

    Williams defends 52% of takedowns and puts only 2-12% of his offence in the clinch. It is free territory for a two-division KSW champion.

  5. 5
    Respect the reach on the way in

    Three inches, and Williams has a 0.30 first-round knockdown average of his own. The entry has to be behind a jab, not a lunge.

  6. 6
    Contingency — if Plan A fails

    If Round 1 closes with Williams upright, the plan becomes pressure and volume rather than the single shot — the Kadestam loss showed what happens when Soldić has to fight backwards.

Danger Zone

How Khaos Williams loses

  • He gets caught by the overhand in the first five minutes, where eleven of Soldić's nineteen finishes have landed, behind 41% striking defence.

  • He fights the reputation rather than the man, spends three rounds circling, and loses a decision to a debutant who has barely fought since 2023.

  • His own 52% takedown defence becomes relevant in a clinch he does not want, against a pressure fighter with two KSW titles.

Danger Zone

How Roberto Soldić loses

  • Nineteen months of rust show up in minute six, in a third round he has reached three times in twenty-six fights, at 4,300 feet.

  • Williams's own first-round power — eight career finishes there, a 0.30 knockdown average — lands before his does.

  • He is out-worked at range by three inches of reach for fifteen minutes and loses an Octagon debut on the cards, the outcome his record says he is least equipped for.

Williams's structural problem

The Softest Defensive Line on the Main Card

Khaos Williams defends 41% of significant strikes, absorbs 5.34 per minute and stuffs 52% of takedowns. All three are the worst figures on this main card and all three sit well under the welterweight baseline. He is walking those numbers into a man with eighteen knockouts in twenty-one wins.

41% / 5.34
striking defence and strikes absorbed
The whole difficulty of this fight

Eighteen Knockouts, Zero Octagon Rounds

Roberto Soldić has an 86% knockout rate across twenty-one wins, held two KSW titles simultaneously, and knocked out Mamed Khalidov. He also has not fought since February 2025, has fought twice since May 2023, and has never set foot in the UFC. Everything that makes him dangerous is real; none of it has been tested in this promotion.

18 / 21
wins by knockout
The unpriced variable

Nineteen Months

Soldić last competed on February 20, 2025. That is a nineteen-month layoff into an Octagon debut at 31, after a ONE Championship spell in which he fought three times in three years. Layoffs of that length degrade timing before conditioning, and timing is what an overhand right is made of.

19 months
since his last fight
And in opposite ways

Both Men Have Been Stopped Exactly Once

Gabriel Bonfim submitted Khaos Williams in the second round in February 2025 — the only finish against him in twenty-one fights. Zebaztian Kadestam stopped Soldić with strikes in 45 seconds of the second round in May 2023 — the only finish against him in twenty-six. Neither hole is the one the other man attacks: Soldić does not grapple and Williams has never knocked out anyone at Kadestam's level.

The simplest read on the fight

Nobody Is Wrestling

Khaos Williams attempts 0.00 takedowns per fifteen minutes and has one submission in sixteen wins. Soldić has one submission in twenty-one. This is a punching contest between two men whose combined submission total is two, and the model should be read as a striking projection with a very wide error bar.

The Five-Round Clock

Khaos Williams danger windowRoberto Soldić danger windowNeutral / contested
R1 · 0:00–5:00The debutant's window

Eleven of Soldić's nineteen finishes landed in the opening round, including Arslanaliev in 115 seconds. Williams's own Round 1 is his most dangerous — a 0.30 knockdown average and eight of his ten finishes — but also his lowest-output frame at 17.4 landed and 41.4% accuracy.

Critical Insight
The most front-loaded fight on the main card. Eleven of Soldić's nineteen finishes and eight of Williams's ten landed in the opening round, which means roughly a third of the total finishing equity in this bout resolves in the first five minutes. After that the curves separate sharply. Williams's output rises 39% to 24.2 landed by the third and he has 46 scored Octagon rounds behind it; Soldić has two career decisions in twenty-six fights, has been past the second round three times, and arrives on a nineteen-month layoff. If the first horn sounds with both men upright, the projection starts moving toward the man with the data.

Finish Threat by Round

Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.

05

The Verdict

One hundred simulated fights, the betting market, and our conviction

If you only read 3 things
1

Roberto Soldić has eighteen knockouts in twenty-one wins and two KSW titles — and zero UFC data of any kind, after a nineteen-month layoff.

2

Khaos Williams carries the softest defensive line on the main card (41% striking defence, 5.34 absorbed per minute, 52% takedown defence) and has never been knocked out in twenty-one fights.

3

Model: Soldić 53% / Williams 47%, conviction 3/10 — the lowest on the main card, and roughly a third of the fight's finishing equity sits in the opening round.

100 Simulated Fights

Soldić KO/TKO — 35%Williams KO/TKO — 27%Williams Decision — 19%Soldić Decision — 16%Williams Submission — 1%Soldić Submission — 2%

Each square = 1 simulated fight. Khaos Williams gold · Roberto Soldić orange · full color = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

An 86% knockout rate against a 41% defensive line

Eighteen knockouts in twenty-one wins, aimed at the softest striking defence and the highest damage-absorbed figure on this main card.

Zero Octagon data on the favourite

No SLpM, no accuracy, no defence, no round-by-round row. Every rate column under Soldić's name is empty, and the model discounts his composite scores heavily for it.

A nineteen-month layoff

Soldić has fought twice since May 2023 and last competed in February 2025, entering an Octagon debut at 31.

Williams has never been knocked out

Twenty-one professional fights, one stoppage loss, and that a submission. It is the single strongest argument against the favourite.

Neither man wrestles

Two career submissions between them and zero takedown attempts per fifteen minutes from Williams. This is a striking projection and should be read as one.

The measured deep water

Williams has 46 scored UFC rounds and output rising 39% by the third; Soldić has two decisions in twenty-six fights, at 4,300 feet.

Fight Scripts

0%
of simulations

Robocop Arrives

The overhand that knocked out Mamed Khalidov and Saygid Guseyn Arslanaliev meets 41% striking defence and 5.34 significant strikes absorbed per minute. Eleven of Soldić's nineteen finishes came in Round 1 and Williams has never faced anyone with this knockout rate. The single most likely outcome and the reason the line exists.

Scripted outcomes for Khaos Williams vs Roberto Soldić — how each version of this fight unfolds.

Khaos Williams win probability
0%
27%
19%
KO/TKODECSUB

  • Nine career knockouts and eight of them in Round 1, with a 0.30 first-round knockdown average. Against a man on a nineteen-month layoff making his Octagon debut, this is a genuine and under-discussed threat.

  • The only path in this fight built on measured evidence: 46 scored UFC rounds, output rising 39% from the first round to the third, and an opponent with two decisions in twenty-six professional fights.

  • One career submission and 0.00 attempts per fifteen minutes. Near-zero by necessity — he has never hunted a finish on the mat.

Roberto Soldić win probability
0%
35%
16%
KO/TKODECSUB

  • The largest bucket on the page. Eighteen knockouts in twenty-one wins, an 86% knockout rate, eleven of them in Round 1 — aimed at the softest defensive line on this main card.

  • Deliberately suppressed. Two career decisions in twenty-six fights, no Octagon experience, and a nineteen-month layoff make fifteen clean minutes his least-rehearsed outcome.

  • One career submission. Present only because scrambles happen, not because he looks for them.

Projected Scorecards

How the model scores each round
R1
Roberto
R2
Khaos
R3
Khaos
29-28 Williams
Soldić takes the first on power; Williams takes the last two on volume and the layoff
The most likely card in a fight that reaches them
29-28 Soldić
The pressure banks two rounds without a finish
Rare for him — he has two decisions in twenty-six fights
30-27 Williams
The debut nerves and the rust never clear
Live, and the branch where three inches of reach actually matter

Moneyline

Khaos Williams
Not posted
Roberto Soldić
Not posted

No book has published a line for this bout at the time of writing. Converting our own probabilities gives fair prices of Roberto Soldić -113 from 53% and Khaos Williams -113 from 47% — model outputs, not quotes, and about as close to a coin flip as this card produces. Live prices appear in the hero above once a market opens.

Props: model vs market

PropOddsImplied %Model %FairEdgeVerdict
Best Value
Williams inside the distance at 28% is the contrarian ticket worth looking at: eight of his ten career finishes landed in Round 1, his knockdown average there is 0.30, and the market will be pricing a debutant's reputation rather than a nineteen-month layoff. The structural read is that this fight does not reach the cards — 65% of simulations end early — which makes any "goes the distance" price the one to fade. If the market installs Soldić as a heavy favourite on the KSW résumé, Williams on the moneyline is live at plus money.
Conviction
0
3/10

The lowest-conviction call on the main card and openly so. One side of this fight is a fully documented ten-bout UFC profile and the other is a blank page attached to one of the best records outside the promotion. Soldić's 86% knockout rate pointed at a 41% striking defence is the cleanest mismatch on the card; the fact that none of it happened in the UFC, that he has fought twice since May 2023, and that Khaos Williams has never been knocked out in twenty-one professional fights is why the number is 53 and not 68. Lean: Roberto Soldić.

What backs the lean

  • Eighteen knockouts in twenty-one wins — an 86% rate, the highest on this card.

  • Knockout wins over Mamed Khalidov, Michał Materla and Saygid Guseyn Arslanaliev.

  • Two-time KSW welterweight champion and simultaneous middleweight champion.

  • Williams's 41% striking defence and 5.34 significant strikes absorbed per minute are the worst figures on the main card.

  • Eleven of his nineteen finishes landed in the opening round.

  • Williams also defends only 52% of takedowns, which makes the clinch free territory.

What limits it

  • Zero UFC bouts, zero scored rounds, and no official rate statistic of any kind.

  • A nineteen-month layoff and only three fights since May 2023.

  • Williams has never been knocked out in twenty-one professional fights.

  • Three inches of reach and two of height the other way.

  • Soldić has been past the second round three times in his career, at a 4,300-foot venue.

  • Williams's own first-round power: eight of ten career finishes there and a 0.30 knockdown average.

Final Assessment

In roughly fifty-three of one hundred simulations Roberto Soldić wins his Octagon debut, and in thirty-five of those he ends it by knockout. The mechanism is the cleanest mismatch on the card: an 86% career knockout rate, eleven first-round finishes, and wins over Mamed Khalidov and Saygid Guseyn Arslanaliev, aimed at a man who defends 41% of significant strikes and absorbs 5.34 per minute — the two worst numbers on this main card.

In the other forty-seven, the nineteen months matter. Khaos Williams has never been knocked out in twenty-one professional fights, owns three inches of reach, has eight first-round finishes of his own and a 0.30 knockdown average in the opening round, and raises his output 39% across the fight to 24.2 landed by the third. Twenty-seven of those simulations are Williams knockouts and nineteen are decisions built on 46 scored Octagon rounds against an opponent with none.

This is the hardest fight on the card to model and the page says so rather than hiding it. Every striking column that exists belongs to a man whose columns are all empty; every column that is actually filled belongs to the underdog and reads badly. On October 3 in Salt Lake City — Soldić 53% / Williams 47%, conviction 3/10, with a third of the finishing equity resolving before the first horn.

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