Nazim Sadykhov vs Jefferson Nascimento – UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit Fight Analytics & Prediction

PRELIMS · LIGHTWEIGHT · 3 ROUNDSUFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit

Nazim Sadykhov

“Black Wolf”

11W3L1D

Southpaw finisher

Jefferson Nascimento

“Toddynho”

13W1L

Body-punching prospect

A UFC finisher on a knockout skid against a 13-1 prospect back at lightweight.

LightweightMadison Square Garden, New York CityNovember 14, 2026Standard 30ft Octagon

The Frame

What this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it

The Analyst's Take

Three-round lightweight bout on the prelims in the 30-foot Madison Square Garden Octagon. Nazim "Black Wolf" Sadykhov (11-3-1, age 32), the only fighter on the UFC roster representing Azerbaijan, is 4-2-1 in the UFC but has lost his last two by knockout: Farès Ziam stopped him at 4:59 of round two in December 2025, and Matheus Camilo in 1:31 on June 27, 2026. Opponents have out-landed him in eight of his 14 UFC rounds and land 6.01 significant strikes per minute on him. Jefferson "Toddynho" Nascimento (13-1, age 27), an LFA interim lightweight champion, made his UFC debut at welterweight on the same Baku card, 29 days after his last title fight. He led Tahir Abdullayev on the strike count after two rounds before being taken down twice and stopped at 4:28 of the third. This bout is at lightweight. The market for this bout has not opened. Our read: Sadykhov 58%, Nascimento 42%, conviction 4 out of 10.

Nazim Sadykhov

Attribute

Jefferson Nascimento

Age

May 16, 1994 vs Nov 19, 199827

5'10"+2" Sadykhov

Height

5'8"

69"

Reach

+1" Nascimento70"

41"

Leg Reach

—

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

155 lbs

Listed Weight

170 lbs in his debut; this bout at 155

Feb 18, 2023

Octagon Debut

Jun 27, 2026

UFC bouts

#44 lightweight

Card rank

#71 welterweight

Southpaw pressure striker

Fighting Style

Distance striker, body puncher

Sadykhov is +2" in height and one inch shorter in reach. He is five years older and fights southpaw; Nascimento is orthodox. Nascimento's debut came at welterweight, but his last five fights before the UFC were at lightweight, where he held the LFA interim title. Sadykhov has seven UFC fights and 14 UFC rounds; Nascimento has one fight and three rounds.

Venue Factor
Madison Square Garden is 30 feet. That gives Nascimento room to stay at range and work the body, as he did for two rounds in his debut, and gives Sadykhov more distance to cover early — the part of the fight where he has struggled most.

The Fighters

Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage

Nazim Sadykhov

Pro Record

11-3-1

UFC Record

4-2-1 in seven UFC bouts, plus a Contender Series win

Streak

Two straight knockout losses (Ziam, Camilo)

Finish Rate

91% of wins (10 of 11) — 8 KO/TKO, 2 submissions

Avg Fight Time

8:13

Chin · Knocked down four times in seven UFC fights — three of them in first rounds — and stopped in each of his last two.SOS · UFC mid-tierSouthpaw pressure striker

Born in Moscow and fighting for Azerbaijan out of Brooklyn, Sadykhov went 6-1 on the regional scene and knocked out Ahmad Sohail Hassanzada on the Contender Series in 2022. His UFC run started well: a doctor's-stoppage win over Evan Elder, a rear-naked choke of Terrance McKinney, a majority draw with Viacheslav Borshchev, a doctor's stoppage of Ismael Bonfim and a second-round knockout of Nikolas Motta, whom he out-landed 93-66. Then it turned. Farès Ziam took him down, controlled him for almost six minutes and stopped him with strikes on the ground at 4:59 of round two, and Matheus Camilo knocked him out in 1:31, before Sadykhov had landed a significant strike.

Jefferson Nascimento

Pro Record

13-1-0

UFC Record

0-1 — TKO loss to Tahir Abdullayev at welterweight

Streak

Lost his UFC debut after 13 straight wins

Finish Rate

62% of wins (8 of 13) — 5 KO/TKO, 3 submissions

Avg Fight Time

14:28

Chin · Not knocked down in his UFC debut; the stoppage came late in the third round, after Abdullayev took him down twice and held him for 3:12.SOS · ProspectBody-punching prospect

Nascimento started judo at three, turned pro in Brazil in 2019 and won 13 straight on the Shooto Brazil and LFA circuits: five knockouts, three submissions and five decisions, including a five-round win over Baysangur Makaev and a fourth-round knockout of Gian Maurente with a front kick to the body in LFA lightweight title fights. Twenty-nine days after the Maurente fight he made his UFC debut at welterweight against Tahir Abdullayev in Baku. He led 22-11 on significant strikes after two rounds, working the body with more than half of his strikes, but Abdullayev took him down twice in the third, held him for 3:12 and stopped him at 4:28. He returns to lightweight for this fight.

Nazim Sadykhov

0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Knockdown Exchange

Knockdowns dealt vs absorbed.

Jefferson Nascimento

0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Nazim Sadykhovsignature weapons

PunchesMotta (R2 4:17) in the UFC; Hassanzada on the Contender Series

×6

Doctor stoppagesEvan Elder (R3) and Ismael Bonfim (after R1)

×2

Rear-naked chokeTerrance McKinney (R2 1:07) in the UFC

×2

Jefferson Nascimentosignature weapons

PunchesCosta, Rocha, Francisco and Santos, all before the UFC

×4

Front kick to the bodyGian Maurente, R4, in an LFA title fight

×1

SubmissionsAnaconda, rear-naked choke and keylock

×3

Nazim Sadykhov

Matheus Camilo

KO/TKO — punch

Opponent context: ufc

R1 (1:31)

UFC — Jun 27, 2026

Farès Ziam

KO/TKO — elbows and punches

Opponent context: veteran

R2 (4:59)

UFC 323 — Dec 6, 2025

Nikolas Motta

KO/TKO — punches

Opponent context: ufc

R2 (4:17)

UFC — Jun 21, 2025

Ismael Bonfim

TKO — doctor stoppage

Opponent context: ufc

R1 (5:00)

UFC — Feb 15, 2025

Viacheslav Borshchev

Draw — Majority

Opponent context: veteran

UFC 295 — Nov 11, 2023

Pattern

2-2-1 in the last five: stoppage wins over Bonfim and Motta, then knockout losses to Ziam and Camilo. He was out-landed in both of those losses before the finish.

Jefferson Nascimento

Tahir Abdullayev

KO/TKO — punches

Opponent context: ufc

R3 (4:28)

UFC — Jun 27, 2026 (welterweight)

Gian Maurente

KO — front kick to the body

Opponent context: ufc adjacent

R4 (2:00)

LFA 234 — May 29, 2026

Baysangur Makaev

Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: ufc adjacent

LFA 218 — Sep 27, 2025

Gabriel Costa

KO/TKO — punches

Opponent context: ufc adjacent

R2 (0:24)

LFA 171 — Nov 3, 2023

Italo Gomes

Decision — Split

Opponent context: ufc adjacent

LFA 162 — Jul 7, 2023

Pattern

Thirteen straight wins before the UFC, the last two in LFA title fights at lightweight. The only loss came in his UFC debut, at welterweight, 29 days after his previous fight.

Nazim Sadykhov

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Jefferson Nascimento

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Critical Insight
Sadykhov has finished ten of his 11 wins — eight KO/TKO and two rear-naked chokes — spread across all three rounds, with four in round three. Nascimento's 13 wins are evenly split between finishes and decisions: five KO/TKO, three submissions and five decisions, including two five-round title fights.

Common Opponents

Opponent	Nazim	Jefferson
Same card, June 27, 2026	L· Matheus Camilo, KO R1 1:31	L· Tahir Abdullayev, TKO R3 4:28 (welterweight)
Both men lost on the same night in Baku; they did not share an opponent.

The Numbers

Composites, division ranks and round-by-round evidence

Composite scores summarize selected statistics on a 0–100 scale. They are not win probabilities. Compare the underlying metrics, opponent quality and UFC experience before interpreting a score difference as a matchup advantage.

Striking

Output · Acc · Def

Nazim

Jefferson

Sadykhov lands 4.75 per minute but absorbs 6.01 at 47% defence across seven UFC fights. Nascimento landed 2.42 and absorbed 2.56 in his one fight.

Grappling

TD · TDD · Sub

Nazim

Jefferson

Sadykhov: 5 of 11 takedowns and 69% takedown defence. Nascimento: no takedowns landed, and Abdullayev took him down twice in the third round.

Technical

(Striking + Grappling) / 2

Nazim

Jefferson

Average of the two gauges.

Metric	Nazim	Jefferson
Avg fight time	8:13 (7 UFC bouts)	14:28 (1 UFC bout)
Rounds out-landed	5 of 14	2 of 3
Round 1 landed / absorbed	15.4 / 24.6	7 / 5
Knockdowns dealt / absorbed	2 / 4	0 / 0
Takedowns landed / conceded	5 / 5	0 / 2

Archetype Base Rate

UFC southpaw finisher 58%42% One-fight prospect at lightweight

Model read for this matchup · The lean follows the fighter who has already won in the UFC; conviction is held down by how his last two fights ended.

Nazim SadykhovJefferson Nascimento

Lightweight

Rank bars use the recorded division cohort. Where no rank is shown, the comparison shows the difference from the published division average; the white marker denotes equality. Percentage differences are percentage points (pp). Higher is not always better: fewer strikes absorbed is preferable.

Stat	Nazim	Nazim comparison	Div avg	Jefferson comparison	Jefferson
SLpMSLpMSignificant Strikes Landed per Minute — offensive striking volume. Higher = busier striker.	4.75	+0.24 vs avg	4.51	-2.09 vs avgfew UFC fights	2.42
Str AccStr AccStriking Accuracy — share of significant strikes thrown that land. Higher = more precise.	47%	-0.80 pp vs avg	47.8%	+1.20 pp vs avg	49%
Str DefStr DefStriking Defense — share of opponents' significant strikes that do NOT land. Higher = harder to hit.	47%	-5.40 pp vs avg	52.4%	+4.60 pp vs avgfew UFC fights	57%
SApMSApMSignificant Strikes Absorbed per Minute — how much a fighter gets hit. Lower = better.	6.01	+1.86 vs avg	4.15	-1.59 vs avgfew UFC fights	2.56
TD/15TD/15Takedowns Landed per 15 minutes — wrestling pressure / takedown engine.	1.30	-0.37 vs avg	1.67	-1.67 vs avg	0.00
TD Acc	45% (5 of 11)	—	—	—	0% (0 of 1)
TD DefTD DefTakedown Defense — share of opponents' takedown attempts stuffed.	69% (5 of 16 landed)	—	—	—few UFC fights	67% (2 of 6 landed)
Sub/15Sub/15Submission Attempts per 15 minutes — how actively a fighter hunts the finish on the mat.	0.26	-0.22 vs avg	0.48	-0.48 vs avg	0.00
Knockdowns	2 dealt / 4 absorbed	—	—	—	0 dealt / 0 absorbed
Avg Fight TimeAvg Fight TimeAverage fight duration — long averages mark proven cardio and decision-ready grinders.	8:13	—	—	—	14:28

Statistical Verdict
Sadykhov lands at about the lightweight average, but he absorbs 6.01 significant strikes per minute — well above the division's 4.15 — behind 47% defence, and he has been knocked down four times. Nascimento's defensive numbers are better but come from 14 minutes. Sadykhov is the one with a takedown game (5 of 11) and the UFC finishes.

Significant Strikes Landed per Round

⚠ R1, R2, R3: single-fight sample for Jefferson Nascimento

Control Time per Round (sec)

Nazim Sadykhov

Round one has been his problem: 15.4 landed at 39% against 24.6 absorbed at 56%, and three of the four knockdowns he has suffered in the UFC came in first rounds. He has won one of seven UFC first rounds on the strike count.
Round two is his best: 25.8 landed at 56%, 0.4 knockdowns and more clinch and ground work. It is the round in which he knocked out Motta (54-30 in the round) and choked McKinney.
Two UFC fights reached round three (Elder, Borshchev). Opponents landed 29.5 per third round on him, though he landed three of four takedowns in the Borshchev third.

Jefferson Nascimento

He won the first two rounds of his UFC debut on the strike count, 7-5 and 15-6, with 71% of his first-round strikes going to the body.
His striking is almost all at distance (94%) and body-heavy (54%). He tried one takedown and did not land it.
Round three is where it turned: Abdullayev landed two of four takedowns, held him for 3:12 and out-landed him 26-13 before the stoppage at 4:28.

Critical Insight
Sadykhov's worst round has been the first, where he is out-landed 24.6 to 15.4 on average, and Nascimento's best UFC work came early. Sadykhov improves in round two, where most of his UFC finishes have come, and Nascimento's only loss came when he was taken down late. The first five minutes are the prospect's opportunity; the longer the fight goes, the more Sadykhov's experience and wrestling come into it.

Strike targeting

Nazim

65%

24%

11%

Head

65%

Body

24%

Legs

11%

Jefferson

32%

54%

14%

Head

32%

Body

54%

Legs

14%

Head hunting vs body work vs leg attack — the shape of the damage.

Striking range — distance, clinch and ground

NazimJefferson

73%Distance94%

18%Clinch6%

9%Ground0%

Share of significant strikes landed at distance, in the clinch and on the ground across each fighter's UFC rounds, weighted by strike volume.

The Story of the Fight

Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath

Where the fight lives

Who owns each phase — and by how much

Open SpaceJefferson owns it

Opponents land 24.6 per first round on Sadykhov; Nascimento out-landed Abdullayev in both of the first two rounds.

Pocket / ExchangesNazim owns it

Eight KO/TKO wins and two UFC knockdowns for Sadykhov — though he has been knocked down four times.

ClinchNazim owns it

18% of Sadykhov's strikes land in the clinch, against 6% for Nascimento.

GroundNazim owns it

Sadykhov has landed 5 of 11 takedowns; Abdullayev took Nascimento down twice in the third.

The Deep Read

Sadykhov's UFC fights follow a pattern: he loses the first round on the strike count and then comes on. He has won one of seven UFC first rounds on the count, and three of the four knockdowns he has suffered came in round one. When he gets to round two he is much better — 25.8 landed at 56%, the Motta knockout, the McKinney choke — but the last two opponents did not let him get there comfortably. Ziam stopped him at the end of round two after nearly six minutes of control; Camilo knocked him out in 91 seconds.

Nascimento's only UFC fight is a useful guide. He won the first two rounds on the count against Tahir Abdullayev, working the body with more than half of his strikes, then was taken down twice in the third and stopped at 4:28. He took the fight at welterweight, 29 days after a lightweight title defence in LFA; this time he is back at his usual weight.

The model leans to Sadykhov because he has the UFC wins, the finishing record and the takedowns that beat Nascimento in his debut. Conviction is only 4 because Sadykhov's early rounds are exactly where Nascimento did his best work, and because Sadykhov has been knocked out in each of his last two fights.

Path to Victory

Nazim Sadykhov

Get through the opening minutes without taking clean shots, then turn up the volume in round two, where he knocked out Motta, and use his takedowns to take the late rounds, as Abdullayev did.

Why they win

UFC experience

Seven UFC fights and 14 rounds against one fight.

Finishing

Ten of 11 wins inside the distance, eight by KO/TKO.

Round two

25.8 landed per second round at 56%, with 0.4 knockdowns.

Takedowns

5 of 11 in the UFC; Abdullayev's two takedowns turned Nascimento's debut.

Size at lightweight

5'10" against 5'8"; Nascimento's UFC debut was at welterweight.

The gameplan

1
Hands up early
Three of his four UFC knockdowns absorbed came in round one.
2
Push the pace in round two
His best round: 25.8 landed at 56%.
3
Use the takedown
Nascimento was taken down twice in the third round of his debut.
4
Work the clinch
18% of his strikes land in the clinch; Nascimento lands 6% there.

Path to Victory

Jefferson Nascimento

Win the early exchanges with body work and distance, as he did for two rounds against Abdullayev, and test a chin that has been dropped four times in seven UFC fights.

Why they win

Age

27 against 32.

Sadykhov's first rounds

Opponents land 24.6 per first round on him at 56%.

Sadykhov's durability

Knocked down four times in seven UFC fights and stopped in each of his last two.

Body work

54% of his UFC strikes went to the body.

Record

13-1, with two LFA lightweight title-fight wins.

The gameplan

1
Start fast
Win round one on the feet, as he did against Abdullayev.
2
Attack the body
54% of his UFC strikes went to the body.
3
Stay off the fence
Keep the fight in open space where his distance striking works.
4
Get up quickly
Late takedowns cost him his debut.

Danger Zone

How Nazim Sadykhov loses

He starts slowly again and gets caught early, as he did against Camilo.
He is out-landed from range for a third straight fight.
Nascimento's body work slows him before his second-round push.

Danger Zone

How Jefferson Nascimento loses

Sadykhov gets through round one and lands in the second, as against Motta.
He is taken down and controlled late, as Abdullayev did.
The drop back to 155 costs him the pace he showed early in his debut.

Sadykhov's first rounds

Slow starts, hard landings

Sadykhov has won one of seven UFC first rounds on the strike count, and three of the four knockdowns he has suffered came in round one.

1 of 7

UFC first rounds won by Sadykhov

Where his UFC finishes happen

Round two is Sadykhov's

Sadykhov lands 25.8 per second round at 56%. McKinney was choked and Motta knocked out in round two.

25.8

Sadykhov landed per second round

Nascimento's debut

Two rounds up, then taken down

Nascimento led Abdullayev 22-11 on significant strikes after two rounds, then was taken down twice and stopped late in the third.

22-11

Nascimento's lead after two rounds

June 27, 2026

Same night in Baku

Both men lost on the same card: Sadykhov to Camilo in round one, Nascimento to Abdullayev in round three.

The Five-Round Clock

Nazim Sadykhov danger windowJefferson Nascimento danger windowNeutral / contested

R1 · 0:00–5:00Nascimento's window

Opponents land 24.6 per first round on Sadykhov, and Camilo stopped him in 1:31. Nascimento won his debut's first round 7-5.

Critical Insight
The early minutes are Nascimento's best chance and Sadykhov's biggest risk. If Sadykhov gets through round one cleanly, the rounds that follow have been his better ones.

Finish Threat by Round

Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.

The Verdict

One hundred simulated fights, the betting market, and our conviction

If you only read 3 things

Sadykhov is favoured on experience and finishing: seven UFC fights, ten stoppage wins, and a second round in which he lands 25.8 at 56%.

His problem is the first round — opponents out-land him 24.6 to 15.4 there — and he was knocked out in each of his last two fights.

Nascimento led his UFC debut on the feet for two rounds before being taken down late; he returns to lightweight here.

Model outcomes per 100 fights

Each square represents one percentage point of the model distribution, not an observed fight. This visualization does not measure model accuracy or reduce uncertainty in the inputs.

Sadykhov KO/TKO — 32%Sadykhov Decision — 16%Sadykhov Submission — 10%Nascimento KO/TKO — 16%Nascimento Decision — 18%Nascimento Submission — 8%

Each square = 1 model percentage point. Nazim Sadykhov gold · Jefferson Nascimento orange · color opacity: 100% = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

UFC experience

Seven UFC fights and a 4-2-1 record against one fight.

Early rounds

Sadykhov has won one of seven UFC first rounds; Nascimento won his debut's first two.

Sadykhov's chin

Four knockdowns absorbed and two straight knockout losses keep Nascimento at 42%.

Takedowns

Sadykhov lands 45% of his attempts; Nascimento was taken down twice late in his debut.

Weight class

Nascimento returns to lightweight, where he held the LFA interim title.

Fight Scripts

of simulations

The Motta path

Sadykhov gets through the first round and his second-round pressure produces the finish — the largest bucket.

Scripted outcomes for Nazim Sadykhov vs Jefferson Nascimento — how each version of this fight unfolds.

Nazim Sadykhov win probability

32%

16%

10%

KO/TKODECSUB

Eight career KO/TKO wins; the Motta finish in round two is the template.
Takedowns and pressure over three rounds, as against Borshchev.
Two career rear-naked chokes, including McKinney in the UFC.

Jefferson Nascimento win probability

16%

18%

KO/TKODECSUB

Five career KO/TKO wins, against a man knocked down four times in the UFC.
Wins the striking rounds, as he did for two rounds in his debut.
Three career submissions, none in the UFC.

Projected Scorecards

How the model scores each round

Jefferson

Nazim

29-28 Sadykhov

Nascimento takes round one; Sadykhov the second and third

Most likely card inside Sadykhov's 16% decision share

29-28 Nascimento

Nascimento wins the first two rounds on the feet, as in his debut

Most likely card inside Nascimento's 18% decision share

Inside R2

Sadykhov's second-round finish

A large part of the 32% KO/TKO share

Model and price

Nazim Sadykhov

Insufficient price data

Model win probability: 58%
Fair odds: -138

Reference quote: —
Fair decimal odds: 1.72

Estimated EV: —
Edge vs no-vig market: —

Jefferson Nascimento

Insufficient price data

Model win probability: 42%
Fair odds: +138

Reference quote: —
Fair decimal odds: 2.38

Estimated EV: —
Edge vs no-vig market: —

EV uses the displayed price: probability × decimal odds − 1. Edge is a percentage-point difference from a proportionally de-vigged, same-book pair. A dash marks a price without a same-book pair to compare.

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Quotes listed with a date but no time are treated as undated.

Fair odds are the break-even price under this estimate, not a recommended entry price. Model uncertainty can erase a small edge.

What price would change the calculation? · Nazim Sadykhov

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Assumed win probability (%)Your target estimated EV (%)

Required decimal price: 1.73 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

What price would change the calculation? · Jefferson Nascimento

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Assumed win probability (%)Your target estimated EV (%)

Required decimal price: 2.39 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

Original analyst price notes

These notes describe the original analysis and may refer to older prices.

Sadykhov is worth backing at −138 or better and Nascimento at +138 or longer. Sadykhov by KO/TKO (32%, fair +213) is the largest single outcome; Nascimento by decision (18%, fair +456) is his most likely route. The fight goes the distance 34% of the time (fair +194).

Conviction

4/10

Editorial confidence in the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

The UFC finisher is the lean. Two straight knockout losses and a history of losing first rounds are why the prospect is still live. Conviction 4 out of 10. Lean: Nazim Sadykhov.

What backs the lean

Seven UFC fights and a 4-2-1 UFC record against 0-1
Ten of 11 wins by stoppage
25.8 landed per second round at 56%
5 of 11 takedowns — and takedowns decided Nascimento's debut

What limits it

Knocked out in each of his last two fights
Knocked down four times in seven UFC fights, three of them in round one
Out-landed in eight of 14 UFC rounds; absorbs 6.01 per minute
Nascimento is 27 and won the first two rounds of his UFC debut on the strike count

Final Assessment

In roughly 58 of 100 readings, Nazim Sadykhov gets through the early minutes, turns up the pressure from round two and wins by KO/TKO (32%), with a decision (16%) if he wins the later rounds with takedowns and a submission (10%) if Nascimento gives up his back. The Motta fight is the template; the Camilo fight is the risk.

In the other 42, Jefferson Nascimento does what he did for two rounds in his debut — works the body at range and wins the exchanges — and either keeps it standing for a decision (18%) or catches a fighter who has been dropped four times in the UFC (16%). The submission share is 8%.

Sadykhov 58 / Nascimento 42, conviction 4 out of 10. The UFC finisher is the pick; his recent knockout losses and his slow starts are why the prospect is live.

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