Nazim Sadykhov vs Jefferson Nascimento: analysis & prediction

PRELIM · LIGHTWEIGHT · 3 ROUNDSUFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit
Nazim Sadykhov — Lightweight fighter

Nazim Sadykhov

“Black Wolf”
11W3L1D
Southpaw Finisher
VS
Jefferson Nascimento — Lightweight fighter

Jefferson Nascimento

“Toddynho”
13W1L
WW Prospect at 155

UFC finisher on a knockout skid against a 13-1 prospect booked at 155

LightweightMadison Square Garden, New York CityNovember 14, 202630ft Octagon

Fight overview

The fight in 30 seconds

Sadykhov's southpaw knockout chart and seven UFC fights against Nascimento's one-fight 155 booking after a welterweight debut — with Sadykhov's two-fight KO skid as the live reversal.

Paths that change the fight

  • Nazim SadykhovUse the southpaw output before the fight becomes a measuring contest he can lose in one punch, the way Camilo ended it. 4.69 SLpM and the Motta knockout are the case. 72% takedown defence matters only if Nascimento decides to wrestle — he did not, in his debut.
  • Jefferson NascimentoStay at the end of the 70-inch reach, make Sadykhov lead, and do not volunteer the pocket that has been stopping Sadykhov. A decision is a live win. His debut almost was one. The weight cut back to 155 is the unknown, not a proven advantage.
What limits this estimate · Analyst conviction: 4/10
  • Knocked out in each of his last two fights, one in 91 seconds
  • Absorbs 5.42 per minute behind 49% defence

Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

Nazim Sadykhov

Insufficient price data
Model win probability
58%
Fair decimal odds
1.72
Reference quote—

Jefferson Nascimento

Insufficient price data
Model win probability
42%
Fair decimal odds
2.38
Reference quote—
Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Sources and data limitations

Rate lines were compiled September 22, 2026. Camilo and Ziam misleading Win tags rejected. Per-round tables omitted. Editorial estimates only.

Model methodology
Read the evidenceInspect prices and assumptions
01

The Frame

What this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it

The Analyst's Take

Three-round lightweight preliminary in the 30-foot Madison Square Garden Octagon. Nazim "Black Wolf" Sadykhov is 11-3-1, card rank #44, fight-night age 32, southpaw, 5'10" with a 69" reach. Rate line: 4.69 SLpM, 48% accuracy, 49% striking defence, 5.42 SApM, 1.08 TD/15 at 45%, 72% takedown defence and 0.2 Sub/15. He has 7 UFC bouts. Misleading Win tags on the Camilo and Ziam fights were rejected — both are knockout losses. Jefferson "Toddynho" Nascimento is 13-1, card rank #71 at welterweight, fight-night age 27, orthodox, 5'8" with a 70" reach. A listing puts him at 170 lbs; this bout is booked at 155. One UFC fight: a round-three TKO loss to Tahir Abdullayev on June 27, 2026. One-fight line: 2.42 SLpM, 48% accuracy, 57% striking defence, 2.56 SApM, 0.00 TD/15, 66% takedown defence and 0.0 Sub/15. No BetOnline price was on the September 22, 2026 board. We take Sadykhov 58% / Nascimento 42% at conviction 4 / 10.

Nazim Sadykhov
Attribute
Jefferson Nascimento
32
Age
May 16, 1994 vs Nov 19, 199827
5'10"+2" Sadykhov
Height
5'8"
69"
Reach
+1" Nascimento70"
N/A
Leg Reach
N/A
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
155 lbs
Listed Weight
170 lbs listed; bout at 155
#44 LW
Card Rank
#71 WW
7
UFC Sample
1
Southpaw knockout volume
Fighting Style
Prospect moving back to 155

Sadykhov is +2" in height and −1" in reach. He is five years older and fights southpaw. Nascimento is orthodox. The welterweight rank and 170-pound listing are the page; the fight is the announced lightweight booking. Small UFC sample because Nascimento is under three Octagon fights.

Venue Factor
Madison Square Garden is 30 feet. A one-inch reach edge on the shorter man does not create a kickboxing lane by itself. Sadykhov's southpaw stance is the angle. Nascimento's job at 155, after a welterweight debut, is to show the cut did not take the pop out of a 13-1 record.
02

The Fighters

Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage

Nazim Sadykhov

Nazim Sadykhov

Pro Record
11-3-1
UFC Record
4-2-1 on the log (misleading Win tags on Camilo/Ziam rejected — both KO losses)
Streak
Two straight knockout losses (Camilo, Ziam)
Finish Rate
Method chart: 8 KO / 2 Sub / 1 Dec of 11 wins
Avg Fight Time
Recent UFC nights end by KO — win or loss
Chin · Damaged recently — Camilo R1 1:31 and Ziam R2 4:59 both by KO/TKOSOS · Announced 24Southpaw Finisher

Sadykhov is the UFC fighter with the knockout résumé and the damaged recent chin. Wins over Motta and Bonfim were knockouts; the last two results are knockout losses. Misleading Win tags on Camilo and Ziam were rejected — this page uses the losses.

Jefferson Nascimento

Jefferson Nascimento

Pro Record
13-1-0
UFC Record
0-1 — TKO loss to Abdullayev R3 4:28 (Jun 27, 2026)
Streak
One UFC loss after a 13-win pre-UFC run; former LFA lightweight champion
Finish Rate
Method chart: 5 KO / 5 Dec / 3 Sub of 13 wins (all outside Octagon except the loss)
Avg Fight Time
Only UFC night lasted 14:28 before the stoppage
Chin · Competitive until late R3 in debut — not blown out earlySOS · Announced 1Prospect at Catchweight Cut

Nascimento is the 13-1 prospect whose only UFC night went 14 minutes and 28 seconds and still ended in a stoppage. Same event night as Sadykhov's Camilo loss (June 27, 2026 in Baku) — they did not fight each other. Debut was at welterweight; this booking returns him to 155.

Nazim Sadykhov
0 dealt · 0 absorbed
Knockdown Exchange
KD dealt vs absorbed. A dash means that figure was not published.
Jefferson Nascimento
0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Nazim Sadykhovsignature weapons

Southpaw PowerEight of eleven pro wins by knockout on the method chart
×8
Late-Round Finish PaceMotta R2 4:17; Bonfim doctor stoppage at R1 horn
×2

Jefferson Nascimentosignature weapons

Reach + Defence+1" reach and 57% StrDef / 2.56 SApM on the only UFC night
×0
Survival into R3Debut lasted 14:28 — decision equity if Sadykhov's chin is the story
×0

Nazim Sadykhov

L
Matheus Camilo
KO/TKO — punch

Opponent context: prospect

RR1 (1:31)
Jun 27, 2026
L
Farès Ziam
KO/TKO — punches

Opponent context: veteran

RR2 (4:59)
Dec 6, 2025
W
Nikolas Motta
KO/TKO — punches

Opponent context: prospect

RR2 (4:17)
Jun 21, 2025
W
Ismael Bonfim
TKO — doctor stoppage

Opponent context: prospect

RR1 (5:00)
Feb 15, 2025
D
Viacheslav Borshchev
Majority draw

Opponent context: veteran

RR3
Nov 11, 2023
Pattern

Sadykhov's last two losses are knockouts, one of them in 91 seconds. His two wins before that were also knockouts. The man with the finish equity is also the man on the skid.

Jefferson Nascimento

L
Tahir Abdullayev
KO/TKO — punches

Opponent context: prospect

RR3 (4:28)
Jun 27, 2026 · WW debut
Pattern

One UFC data point: competitive on significant strikes (35-37) until 4:28 of round three. The other twelve wins are not assigned UFC round times here.

Nazim Sadykhov

Win Methods
Wins by Round

Jefferson Nascimento

Win Methods
Wins by Round
Critical Insight
Sadykhov's pro chart is 8 KO / 2 Sub / 1 Dec. Nascimento's is 5 KO / 5 Dec / 3 Sub — all wins outside the Octagon. Accuracy ties at 48%; Sadykhov lands almost twice as much and absorbs more than twice as much.

Common Opponents

OpponentNazimJefferson
Shared date (not opponent)LCamilo R1 1:31 — Jun 27, 2026 BakuLAbdullayev R3 4:28 — Jun 27, 2026 Baku
Same event night for form context only — not a transitive result
03

The Numbers

Composites, division ranks and round-by-round evidence

Composite scores summarize selected statistics on a 0–100 scale. They are not win probabilities. Compare the underlying metrics, opponent quality and sample flags before interpreting a score difference as a matchup advantage.

Striking

Output · Acc · Def

0
Nazim
0
Jefferson

Sadykhov 4.69 / 48% and an 8-knockout win chart. He also absorbs 5.42. Nascimento 2.42 / 48% / 57% def on one fight

Grappling

TD · TDD · Sub

0
Nazim
0
Jefferson

Sadykhov 1.08 TD/15, 72% TDD, two career submissions. Nascimento 0.00 TD/15 and 0.0 Sub/15 in the only UFC fight

Form

Recent results

0
Nazim
0
Jefferson

Sadykhov 0-2, both KOs. Nascimento's only loss went 14:28

Sample

UFC bouts

0
Nazim
0
Jefferson

7 UFC bouts against 1

Overall

Editorial blend

0
Nazim
0
Jefferson

Experience and the knockout chart, discounted by the skid

MetricNazimJefferson
SLpM4.692.42
SApM5.422.56
TD Def72%66%
Reach69"70"
UFC Fights71

Archetype Base Rate

UFC Southpaw Finisher 58%42% One-Fight Prospect at 155

Editorial — experience vs skid · Lean follows the man who has already won in the UFC, conviction held down by how recent UFC nights ended.

Nazim SadykhovJefferson Nascimento

Lightweight (bout at 155; Nascimento ranked WW)

StatNazimNazim rankDiv avgJefferson rankJefferson
SLpM4.69———2.42
Str Acc48%———48%
Str Def49%———57%
SApM5.42———2.56
TD/151.08———0.00
TD Acc45%———0% (no attempts)
TD Def72%———66%
Sub/150.2———0.0
Reach69"———70"
UFC fights7———1
Card rank#44 LW———#71 WW
Statistical Verdict
Accuracy is a tie at 48%. Sadykhov lands almost twice as much per minute and absorbs more than twice as much. Nascimento did not shoot. The defensive edge on the sheet belongs to a one-fight sample. The finishing chart belongs to Sadykhov, and so do the last two knockout losses.

Significant Strikes Landed per Round

Round-by-round significant-strike figures are unavailable for this comparison. Missing observations are not zero strikes.

Control Time per Round (sec)

Round-by-round control-time figures are unavailable for this comparison. Missing observations are not zero seconds of control.

Nazim Sadykhov

  • Per-round strike tables omitted.
  • Camilo 1:31 R1; Ziam 4:59 R2; Motta 4:17 R2; Bonfim doctor stoppage at R1 horn; Borshchev draw went the distance.
  • Finishes cluster late in a round or immediately.

Jefferson Nascimento

  • Per-round strike tables omitted.
  • Only UFC finish against him was 4:28 of round three — he was in the fight, not finishing it.
  • Pro chart says he has finished before; that evidence is not an Octagon round.
Critical Insight
Sadykhov's pattern is a violent striking fight won or lost by knockout. Nascimento's UFC pattern is one data point at welterweight. Moving him to 155 is the booking, not yet a rate line.

Strike targeting (available rounds)

Strike-target figures are unavailable for this comparison.

Head hunting vs body work vs leg attack — the shape of the damage. Unavailable strike-target figures are omitted rather than shown as 0%.

Striking range — distance, clinch and ground

Nazim · N/AJefferson · N/A

The distribution of strikes by range is unavailable for this comparison.

Approximate share of significant strikes by range in available rounds, weighted by strike volume. Incomplete splits are excluded. Debutants / fighters without Octagon samples show as N/A.

04

The Story of the Fight

Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath

Where the fight lives

Who owns each phase — and by how much
Open SpaceJefferson owns it

+1" reach and better one-fight defence

Pocket / ExchangesNazim owns it

4.69 SLpM and eight KO wins — also where Camilo ended it

ClinchNazim owns it

1.08 TD/15 vs 0.00 in UFC sample

GroundNazim owns it

Small submission shares both ways

The Deep Read

Sadykhov is the UFC finisher who is currently getting finished. Nascimento is the prospect who did not wrestle in his only UFC fight and lost a fight he was in until the last minute.

A 30-foot cage and three rounds give the veteran the lanes he has used before, and they also give the prospect room if the veteran's chin is still where Camilo left it.

The lean follows the man who has already won in the UFC, with the conviction held down by how those recent UFC nights ended. Sadykhov 58 / Nascimento 42, conviction 4.

Path to Victory

Nazim Sadykhov

Use the southpaw output before the fight becomes a measuring contest he can lose in one punch, the way Camilo ended it. 4.69 SLpM and the Motta knockout are the case. 72% takedown defence matters only if Nascimento decides to wrestle — he did not, in his debut.

Why they win
01
7 UFC fights

4-2-1 log against 0-1 — experience and the knockout chart.

02
8 knockout wins

Pro chart finishing identity.

03
Southpaw +2" height

Angle and frame against the shorter man.

04
4.69 SLpM

Against a one-fight 2.42 rate.

The gameplan
  1. 1
    Southpaw kick and left hand

    Do not shell up on the fence the way short knockout losses start.

  2. 2
    Force the pace early

    Three rounds means an early deficit is hard to spot.

  3. 3
    Trust 72% TDD only if he shoots

    He did not in the debut — do not invent his wrestling.

Path to Victory

Jefferson Nascimento

Stay at the end of the 70-inch reach, make Sadykhov lead, and do not volunteer the pocket that has been stopping Sadykhov. A decision is a live win. His debut almost was one. The weight cut back to 155 is the unknown, not a proven advantage.

Why they win
01
Five years younger

27 against 32.

02
+1" reach

Wrong way for the favorite.

03
13-1 record

Prospect résumé with LFA LW title background.

04
Debut into R3

57% defence on that night; competitive until the last minute.

The gameplan
  1. 1
    Outside, counters

    Make Sadykhov lead into the pocket that has been stopping him.

  2. 2
    No naked shots

    Into 72% takedown defence unless the wrestling is actually there — UFC TD count is zero.

  3. 3
    Survive into R3

    Abdullayev night stretched almost to a decision — replicate the first fourteen minutes.

Danger Zone

How Nazim Sadykhov loses

  • Camilo replication — one punch in round one.

  • Measuring contest where 5.42 SApM and 49% defence get taxed.

  • Nascimento finds a knockout of his own from five pro KO wins.

Danger Zone

How Jefferson Nascimento loses

  • Motta version of Sadykhov shows up and finishes the southpaw power path.

  • Inventing wrestling into 72% TDD.

  • Weight cut takes the pop and the pocket opens.

Camilo and Ziam

Misleading Wins Rejected

Misleading Win tags on both nights were rejected. Official results are stoppages. This page uses the losses.

2
straight KO losses
WW rank, LW fight

155 Booking

Nascimento listed 170 lbs and ranked #71 welterweight; bout is announced lightweight at 155.

155
booked weight (lbs)
June 27, 2026

Same Night, Not Shared Tape

Both lost in Baku the same night — form context only, not transitive.

The central tension

Finish Equity vs Chin

Eight knockout wins on the chart; two knockout losses to open the window. Motta is the template; Camilo is the risk.

58
model % Sadykhov

The Five-Round Clock

Nazim Sadykhov danger windowJefferson Nascimento danger windowNeutral / contested
R1 · 0:00–5:00Skid vs Motta path

Camilo ended Sadykhov at 1:31. Bonfim was a doctor stoppage at the horn. Highest variance round.

Critical Insight
Three rounds. Sadykhov's finishes cluster late or immediately. Nascimento's only UFC night almost went the distance.

Finish Threat by Round

Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.

05

The Verdict

One hundred simulated fights, the betting market, and our conviction

If you only read 3 things
1

Sadykhov 58% / Nascimento 42%, conviction 4/10 — UFC finisher lean, two-fight KO skid caps confidence.

2

Camilo and Ziam are losses despite misleading Win tags. Bout is lightweight at 155 even though Nascimento is ranked welterweight.

3

Fair −138 / +138. Best lean Sadykhov by KO/TKO at 32%. Nascimento by decision at 18% is the contrarian.

Model outcomes per 100 fights

Each square represents one percentage point of the model distribution, not an observed fight. This visualization does not measure model accuracy or reduce uncertainty in the inputs.

Sadykhov KO/TKO — 32%Sadykhov Decision — 16%Sadykhov Submission — 10%Nascimento KO/TKO — 16%Nascimento Decision — 18%Nascimento Submission — 8%

Each square = 1 simulated fight. Nazim Sadykhov gold · Jefferson Nascimento orange · full color = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

UFC experience

7 fights against 1 — Motta/Bonfim path vs one-fight sample.

Knockout skid

Camilo and Ziam keep Nascimento live at 42%.

Weight cut

Back to 155 after a 170 listing — unknown, not a proven edge.

Output gap

4.69 vs 2.42 SLpM on the available lines.

No wrestling invented

Nascimento's UFC takedown count is zero.

Fight Scripts

0%
of simulations

The Motta Path

Southpaw power arrives; Sadykhov by KO/TKO — largest bucket.

Scripted outcomes for Nazim Sadykhov vs Jefferson Nascimento — how each version of this fight unfolds.

Nazim Sadykhov win probability
0%
32%
16%
10%
KO/TKODECSUB

  • Thirty-two points — Motta and Bonfim path, not the Camilo path.

  • Sixteen points — if it lasts.

  • Ten points — two of eleven career wins; small branch.

Jefferson Nascimento win probability
0%
16%
18%
8%
KO/TKODECSUB

  • Sixteen points — five pro KO wins without pretending the UFC line has a knockdown.

  • Eighteen points — debut stretched to a win: he was in a fight for fourteen minutes.

  • Eight points — three on the pro chart, zero in the UFC.

Projected Scorecards

How the model scores each round
R1
Nazim
R2
Nazim
R3
Jefferson
29-28 Sadykhov
Volume early, prospect late
Inside Sadykhov's 16% decision share
29-28 Nascimento
Counters and survival
Primary path inside 18% decision share
30-27 Sadykhov
Southpaw control all three
Live if Motta version never needs a finish

Model and price

Nazim Sadykhov

Insufficient price data
Model win probability
58%
Fair decimal odds
1.72
Reference quote—
Estimated EV
—
Edge vs no-vig market
—

Jefferson Nascimento

Insufficient price data
Model win probability
42%
Fair decimal odds
2.38
Reference quote—
Estimated EV
—
Edge vs no-vig market
—

EV uses the displayed price: probability × decimal odds − 1. Edge is a percentage-point difference from a proportionally de-vigged, same-book pair. A dash means that comparison is unavailable.

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Fair odds are the break-even price under this estimate, not a recommended entry price. Model uncertainty can erase a small edge.

What price would change the calculation? · Nazim Sadykhov

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Required decimal price: 1.73 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

What price would change the calculation? · Jefferson Nascimento

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Required decimal price: 2.39 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

Full prop table (0)Expand for odds, model %, implied % and analyst verdict per prop

No prop prices recorded in this analysis.

Original analyst price notes

These notes describe the original analysis and may refer to older prices.

Best lean: Sadykhov by KO/TKO at 32% (fair +213). Nascimento by decision at 18% (fair +456) is the live contrarian if the skid is the story. Distance 34% (fair +194).

Conviction
0
4/10

Editorial confidence in the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

The UFC finisher is the lean. The two-fight knockout skid is why the prospect is still live. Conviction 4/10. Lean: Nazim Sadykhov.

What backs the lean

  • 4-2-1 in the UFC against 0-1

  • Eight of eleven pro wins by knockout

  • 4.69 SLpM against a one-fight 2.42

  • Southpaw, two inches taller, 72% takedown defence against a man who did not shoot

What limits it

  • Knocked out in each of his last two fights, one in 91 seconds

  • Absorbs 5.42 per minute behind 49% defence

  • Nascimento's only UFC night was competitive until 4:28 of round three

  • 13-1 record and move back to 155 are real; rate line is still one fight

  • One-inch reach the wrong way for the favorite

Final Assessment

In roughly 58 of 100 readings, Nazim Sadykhov makes it a striking fight, lands the southpaw power that has produced most of his wins, and wins by KO/TKO (32%), with a decision (16%) if it lasts and a submission (10%) if a neck appears. Motta is the template. Camilo is the risk inside that same template.

In the other 42, Jefferson Nascimento uses the extra inch of reach and the fact that he can survive into round three, and wins a decision (18%) or finds a knockout of his own (16%). The submission share is 8%.

Sadykhov 58 / Nascimento 42, conviction 4 out of 10. The UFC finisher is the lean. The two-fight knockout skid is why the prospect is still live.

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