Billy Quarantillo vs Diego Ferreira
Lightweight Bout • UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs. Salkilld
Saturday, August 8, 2026 • Meta APEX, Las Vegas (25ft Octagon)
Explore Detailed Fighter Profiles
Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Billy Quarantillo
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Diego Ferreira
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Billy Quarantillo
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-14 | Cub Swanson | L | KO/TKO (Punches) (R3, 1:36) |
| 2024-08-24 | Youssef Zalal | L | Submission (R2, 1:50) |
| 2023-08-05 | Damon Jackson | W | Decision (Unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-04-15 | Edson Barboza | L | KO/TKO (Punches) (R1, 2:37) |
| 2022-12-10 | Alexander Hernandez | W | KO/TKO (Punches) (R2, 4:30) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Diego Ferreira
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-13 | Alexander Hernandez | L | KO/TKO (Punches) (R2, 3:46) |
| 2025-01-18 | Grant Dawson | L | Decision (Unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-05-11 | Mateusz Rebecki | W | KO/TKO (Punches) (R3, 4:51) |
| 2023-05-20 | Michael Johnson | W | KO/TKO (Punches) (R2, 1:50) |
| 2021-12-18 | Mateusz Gamrot | L | KO/TKO (Punches) (R2, 3:26) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (50.8 vs 50.8) and Grappling Composite (56.1 vs 50.4). Balances overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills. Note: Quarantillo's ranks are featherweight-relative and compress on the move up to 155.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Visual comparison of key performance metrics between both fighters
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Billy Quarantillo Key Advantages
A 7.44 SLpM and a 9.4 strikes-per-minute motor (Elite Activity) against Ferreira's 5.2 (Moderate) is a chasm. Quarantillo out-lands Ferreira in the average opening round (27.0 vs 19.3) and buries him in the second (38.5 vs 16.6). Sustained pressure and volume is the exact profile that has stopped Ferreira three times in five years — Gamrot, Gillespie and Hernandez all walked him down and finished him. This is a style matchup "Little Bill" is built to win: he wants to make it a swimming pool and drown a 40-year-old at a pace his tank can't answer.
Ferreira's four-inch reach edge only matters at distance. Quarantillo's 81.1% clinch accuracy, ramping clinch involvement (up to 21.6% by the second round) and 26 career clinch takedowns are the great equalizer — tie Ferreira up on the fence and the length advantage evaporates while Quarantillo's short strikes and knees accumulate. Against a distance-preferring counter-striker who spends 89.8% of his time standing at range, the tie-up is the phase where Quarantillo drags the fight into his world and grinds the older man's cardio.
55% striking accuracy versus 40%, and a career-high-in-the- cage 72% finish rate: Quarantillo doesn't just throw more, he lands cleaner, and against a chin cracked four times by pressure, accumulation is a genuine stoppage path. The common-opponent tape sharpens it — Quarantillo knocked out Alexander Hernandez (R2, 2022); Hernandez knocked out Ferreira (R2, 2025), and both beat Kyle Nelson by KO. Add the easier direction of the weight change (37 moving up, not 40 draining down) and Quarantillo may carry the fresher legs late despite the layoff.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
The whole case for Quarantillo assumes his featherweight pressure still bites at lightweight. If his volume lands but doesn't hurt a bigger man, the fight becomes a one-way tax on his rank-43 striking defense: Ferreira's harder single shots win the meaningful exchanges while Quarantillo out-throws him on paper without moving him. Volume fighters routinely lose bite moving up a class, and a ~20-month layoff plus the weight jump can show up as timing and durability deficits early — exactly when a fresher-legged veteran can bank the rounds Quarantillo needs.
Quarantillo walks straight into the pocket behind volume, absorbing 5.83 strikes a minute with rank-43 defense — the Barboza R1 and Swanson R3 script. Ferreira is a bigger, longer puncher with real counter power (tech_counter_rate 0.53) and a recent knockout habit; one clean counter on an advancing, hittable opponent changes the night. And the clinch he covets cuts both ways: initiate a careless scramble and Ferreira's black-belt guard — the one that finished Anthony Pettis and Colton Smith — can turn a tie-up into a submission.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Quarantillo's edge is pace against a moderate, 40-year-old tank. Pressure from the opening bell, push the count, and never let Ferreira set his feet at range. Feint the level change to freeze the power counters, then unload volume — a credible takedown threat keeps Ferreira from sitting on the one clean shot as Quarantillo enters. The goal is simple: turn every minute into forward-marching output that a slower, older man has to answer 38-to-16 in the middle round.
Get to the fence early and often — 81.1% clinch accuracy plus a reach deficit means the tie-up is home. Erase the four inches, work knees and short shots, and grind Ferreira's cardio. Round 2 is the statistical kill zone (38.5 landed against Ferreira's 16.6 valley): win it decisively and force Ferreira to need a finish in the third. The one caution — do not get sloppy in scrambles. Ferreira's guard is a trap; pass to dominant position or stand back up rather than hunt a submission on a black belt.
🚀 Diego Ferreira Key Advantages
This is the headline. Quarantillo is climbing to 155 for the first time in years; Ferreira has lived there for a decade against the deepest talent pool in the sport. Four inches of reach (74" to 70"), three inches of leg reach, and real mass mean Quarantillo eats bigger shots, gets moved more easily, and can't bully Ferreira the way he bullied featherweights. Kept at the end of the punches — circling off the fence and refusing the clinch war where his length dies — Ferreira can make the volume machine cover ground all night and blunt the pressure before it starts.
Ferreira's power is legitimate (5 UFC KOs), and it meets a Quarantillo striking defense that ranks 43rd of 45 with a 5.83 SApM. A fighter who walks straight into the pocket against a bigger man with counter power and a recent knockout habit is exactly how Quarantillo has lost. The clinch also cuts both ways for Ferreira: he is the more decorated grappler — a black belt with 81.8% ground accuracy and an "Early Hunter" submission instinct who has finished Anthony Pettis and Colton Smith. If Quarantillo shoots or ties up carelessly, he is entering Ferreira's world.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Quarantillo's second-round explosion (38.5 landed) simply buries him — the Gamrot/Hernandez pressure-TKO replays itself, and at 40 the chin that has already been stopped four times gives again. It gets worse if Ferreira can't keep the fight at range: Quarantillo mauls him on the fence, erases the reach, and banks Rounds 1 and 2 on sheer volume before the R3 surge can ever matter. Ferreira's dip in the middle round (16.6, his lowest) is precisely the valley that hands away the fight two-to-one if he coasts or resets.
Ferreira's whole upset path runs through landing the harder shot on the way in — but his accuracy is genuinely poor (40%, rank 51 of 57). If the counters miss just often enough that he can't punish Quarantillo's entries, the fight collapses into a one-way volume beating he is statistically built to lose. Even his monster third round (30.9 landed) barely exceeds Quarantillo's opening round (30.4) and sits well under Quarantillo's R2 (38.5), so a late surge that arrives after two lost rounds only wins him one on the cards.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Use the reach: keep Quarantillo at the end of the punches, circle off the fence, and refuse the clinch war where the length dies. Quarantillo walks in behind volume with a rank-43 defense — time the blitz and land the harder single shot on the way in, because one clean counter can end it. If he does tie up or shoot, make him pay with the black-belt guard game that finished Pettis and Colton Smith. The fight has to be about damage, not activity — Ferreira can't win the volume count, so he must land the shots that hurt.
Ferreira's 182% third-round output (19.3 → 16.6 → 30.9) is purpose-built for this three-round format. The plan is to weather the middle-round storm, stay defensively responsible (top-third striking defense, low absorption), and unleash the late kick on a fading Quarantillo ("Slight Fade," 85%). The Rebecki KO (R3, 4:51) is this line made flesh. If he can keep it competitive through 10 minutes, the closing round is where the upset most often lives — either a late stoppage of a tired man or a surge-driven decision.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
⚖️The Weight-Class Jump
Everything the model likes about Quarantillo — the rank-3 volume, the rank-9 submission rate, the elite pace — was earned at featherweight against featherweights. The most reliable pattern in MMA when a career 145er moves to 155 is output saturation: the same punches that overwhelmed smaller men bounce off bigger ones, and the incoming fire is heavier. Quarantillo's rank-43 striking defense and 5.83 SApM were survivable at featherweight; against a natural lightweight with four inches of reach and legitimate power, that same profile is a far bigger liability. This single factor is why a model that grades Quarantillo ahead (Overall 63.3 vs 59.3) should be trimmed toward a coin flip.
🔥The Firefight Math — Two Leaky Defenses
Neither man defends the other well. Do the arithmetic on effective landing: Quarantillo throws roughly 13.5 sig/min (7.44 landed ÷ 0.55 accuracy); Ferreira defends 56% and still eats about 5.9/min — above Quarantillo's own career SLpM. Ferreira throws about 11.8 sig/min (4.70 ÷ 0.40); Quarantillo defends only 43% and absorbs roughly 6.7/min — well above Ferreira's career average. Effective-landing projections put both fighters above their career pace, so a high-contact, high-damage fight is the base case. When two crackable "Good" chins meet in a guaranteed firefight, the finish probability spikes and the decision becomes the least likely single outcome. Whoever's chin blinks first loses.
🧩The R2 Fulcrum & the R3 Trapdoor
The round profiles hand us the timeline. Round 2 is Quarantillo's peak (38.5 landed) and Ferreira's valley (16.6) — a potential 2.3-to-1 output round that could bank the fight for Quarantillo or, if Ferreira's power lands in that firefight, end it. Round 3 is Ferreira's surge window (30.9) against a fading Quarantillo (25.9): the round where the upset most often lives, either on the cards or via a late finish of a tired, hittable opponent. Overlay it with the common-opponent triangle — Quarantillo stopped Hernandez; Hernandez stopped Ferreira; both KO'd Kyle Nelson — and the transitive tape is a small, real thumb on the scale for "Little Bill." Whoever imposes their round wins the fight.
🏁Final Prediction
Quarantillo's single most likely individual outcome is a Decision (23%) — the "out-work him for 15 minutes" path — but the firefight dynamics keep his finish lanes very live: a pressure-driven KO/TKO by accumulation (21%) against a chin stopped four times, plus an 11% submission off the clinch. In the roughly 45 of 100 where Ferreira's hand is raised, the mechanism is almost always his size and power doing what the composites can't measure: a clean counter (20% KO/TKO) on an advancing, hittable Quarantillo, a late surge stealing it on the cards (16% decision), or a black-belt scramble submission (9%). Combined finish rate: 61% — the decision is the least interesting bet on the board.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: ~78% | Market implied: 71.4%
GOOD VALUE
Model: 45% | Fair: +122
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 61% | Market implied: 62.3%
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Overprices the early KO – Under-1.5-rounds at +200 implies 33%; finishes come by accumulation (R2–R3), not a first-round blitz. Take the Over.
- • Tempting plus-money on the wrong method – Quarantillo by Decision at +180 (35.7%) overstates his 23% decision path; his wins finish more than the line pays.
- • Leaves the dog a sliver – Ferreira at +120 (45.5% implied) sits just above our 45% — a live underdog on a weight-class question the ranks under-price.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Billy Quarantillo
His single most likely outcome — out-work Ferreira over 15
Pressure accumulation against a chin stopped four times
Elite FW sub rate — off a clinch or scramble, if he risks it
💥Outcome Distribution - Diego Ferreira
His best path — one clean counter on a leaky rank-43 defense
Survive R2, surge in R3, steal it late — the hard road
Black-belt counter off a Quarantillo clinch or scramble
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Diego Ferreira
- • Counter the entries: Time the blitz — one clean shot on a rank-43 defense ends it.
- • R3 surge: 182% output (30.9 landed) vs a fading Quarantillo is the upset's home.
- • Refuse the clinch: Keep it long, circle off the fence where the four-inch reach lives.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Billy Quarantillo
- • Volume avalanche: 9.4 str/min a moderate, 40-year-old tank can't answer.
- • R2 kill zone: 38.5 landed vs 16.6 — bank the middle round decisively.
- • Clinch grind: 81.1% accuracy on the fence erases the reach and saps cardio.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
A soft lean on a close, high-variance fight between two hittable, fading veterans
✅Supporting Factors
- • Enormous volume/pace gap (9.4 vs 5.2 str/min)
- • 38.5 vs 16.6 landed in the pivotal Round 2
- • Clinch (81.1% acc) neutralizes the four-inch reach
- • Common-opponent tape — KO'd Hernandez, who KO'd Ferreira
- • Relative youth; the easier direction of weight change (up)
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Weight-class jump — FW numbers may not carry to 155
- • Ferreira's size, reach and power vs a rank-43 defense
- • The BJJ trap — Quarantillo wants the clinch a black belt owns
- • Both on two-fight skids; both aging, crackable chins
- • Ferreira's 182% R3 surge in a three-round format
🏁Executive Summary
Run 100 simulations and the most common storyline is this: Quarantillo eats a couple of hard Ferreira counters early but presses forward anyway, drags the fight to the fence, and buries Ferreira under a two-to-one volume avalanche in the second round — either banking his way to a decision (his single most likely individual outcome, ~23 of 100) or overwhelming a chin that's already been stopped four times for the TKO (~21 of 100). In the roughly 45 where Ferreira's hand is raised, the mechanism is almost always his size and power doing what the composites can't measure: a clean counter on an advancing, hittable Quarantillo whose leaky defense finally costs him (~20 of 100), a late surge or scramble submission stealing a fight Quarantillo led (~16 decision, ~9 sub). What we believe with conviction is that this is a firefight that ends early more often than it doesn't (61% combined finish rate), and the decision is the least interesting bet on the board. Our lean to Quarantillo is deliberate but soft — tempered by the one thing no featherweight metric can promise: that the pressure which drowned 145-pounders will drown a rangy, powerful, battle-hardened lightweight who is bigger, longer, and still carries fight-ending power at 40.
Prediction: Billy Quarantillo at 55% is a modest, honest lean — his volume, pace and clinch tools plus the uncomfortable fact that his exact archetype has finished Ferreira before. Diego Ferreira at 45% stays very live: a four-inch reach, one-shot power and a black belt waiting for one mistake mean that in a co-main between two crackable chins, the margin is a single clean punch wide.