Alex Perez vs Sumudaerji
Flyweight Bout • UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song
Saturday, August 29, 2026 • Shanghai Indoor Stadium, Shanghai
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Alex Perez
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Sumudaerji
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Alex Perez
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-30 | Sumudaerji | NC | No Contest (Groin Kick) (R2, 1:45) |
| 2026-01-24 | Charles Johnson | W | KO/TKO (Punches) (R1, 3:16) |
| 2025-11-22 | Asu Almabayev | L | Submission (Guillotine) (R3, 0:22) |
| 2024-06-15 | Tatsuro Taira | L | TKO (Knee Injury) (R2, 2:59) |
| 2024-02-17 | Matheus Nicolau | W | KO (Punch) (R2, 2:16) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Sumudaerji
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-30 | Alex Perez | NC | No Contest (Groin Kick) (R2, 1:45) |
| 2026-03-14 | Jesús Aguilar | W | Decision (Unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-08-23 | Kevin Borjas | W | Decision (Unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-04-12 | Mitch Raposo | W | Decision (Split) (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-10-26 | Charles Johnson | L | Decision (Unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (53 vs 64) and Grappling Composite (60 vs 44). Balances overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Visual comparison of key performance metrics between both fighters
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Alex Perez Key Advantages
The fight's defining edge. Sumudaerji has been submitted in six of seven career losses — three in the UFC alone (armbar, triangle, arm-triangle). Perez is a seven-time submission finisher and anaconda/arm-triangle specialist. This is the single largest, most repeatedly-proven mismatch in the bout, and it lives entirely in Perez's wheelhouse. He does not need to out-wrestle Sumudaerji cleanly — one committed entry that turns into a scramble, and history says the finish follows.
Perez's 0.83 UFC knockdown average and leg-kick-heavy target split (23% to the legs) give him a real finishing threat before the grappling even starts — the Formiga leg-kick TKO and the Nicolau one-shot KO prove it. Chop the lead leg to slow the seven-inch reach's footwork, then close behind the heavy orthodox right hand. It is a genuine secondary standing route, capped only by Sumudaerji's never-been-KO'd durability and 63% striking defense.
Before the accidental foul ended their first meeting, Perez was the one dictating — pressuring, controlling the cage, mixing in level changes. That is direct, recent, head-to-head evidence his gameplan travels against this specific opponent. He also owns the far deeper résumé — a former title challenger who has shared the cage with Figueiredo, Pantoja, Benavidez, and Formiga — against Sumudaerji's clear tier below (Raposo, Borjas, Aguilar). And because Sumudaerji has just one career submission win, Perez can commit to the mat without fearing it used against him.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Sumudaerji stuffs the early takedowns (73% TDD, and Perez's shot lands only 21% of the time), keeps the fight at range, and picks Perez apart with the jab, straight left, and body kicks for three rounds. Never solving the seven-inch reach or the southpaw stance, Perez drops a clean, uneventful decision on the outside — the exact fight his profile is least equipped to win.
Drawn into a kickboxing match on the outside, Perez eats the straight-left counter walking in and — with two TKO losses already on his record — gets hurt against the longer, sharper striker. Or his 34-year-old body and gas tank betray him in Round 3 the way they have before (an 18-month knee layoff, the Taira knee injury), handing Sumudaerji the championship-pace rounds down the stretch.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Repeat what already worked: back Sumudaerji to the fence as in fight one and make the cage an ally. Chop the lead leg from the opening bell (23% leg targeting) to slow the seven-inch reach's footwork — a compromised base cannot manage range. Distance is the enemy; the clinch is the destination. He does not need to rush the exchanges, only to keep erasing the space.
With only 21% takedown accuracy, Perez may not plant Sumudaerji at will — but he does not need to. Any prolonged scramble or cage-clinch-to-mat sequence is a submission opportunity against a man submitted in six of seven losses; hunt the anaconda and the arm-triangle. And respect the clock: his 6:47 average and Sumudaerji's cardio both say the longer it goes, the worse it gets — prioritize the Round 1–2 finish.
🚀 Sumudaerji Key Advantages
The +7" reach (72" to 65") and left-handed stance are a brutal look for a 5'6" orthodox pressure fighter. Every entry Perez attempts travels through the straight left. If Sumudaerji manages distance he lands first and cleaner all night — and he is the more efficient, lower-risk striker across the board: 50% accuracy, 63% defense, and just 2.29 absorbed per minute to Perez's 3.24. He is the harder man to hit clean.
Four years younger, never knocked out, and proven over the full 15 minutes (10:44 average, four straight UFC decisions), Sumudaerji answers the deep-water question Perez cannot. His 73% takedown defense — against Perez's 21% takedown accuracy — can stuff the initial shots and steer the fight into the exact vertical, range-managed phase he wins on the cards. Keep it standing and the numbers tilt to the younger man.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Perez lands one committed level-change or cage-clinch, the fight hits the mat, and the sixth-submission-loss pattern repeats — an anaconda or arm-triangle in Rounds 1–2, exactly as the tape predicts. The single skill Perez specializes in is the single skill that has ended nearly every loss of Sumudaerji's career; one bad scramble is all it takes.
Perez's leg kicks compromise the base early, the rangy footwork slows, and the pressure that was already working in their first meeting overwhelms him before his range game matures. Or a heavy Perez right hand or knockdown (0.83 KD avg) catches him during an entry and turns a clean striking exchange into the one scramble he cannot survive.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Use the +7" reach and lateral movement to keep Perez on the end of the jab and straight left, and never let the fight get to the fence. But the whole night hinges on the second instruction: defend the level change first, everything else second — sprawl, frame, hand-fight, and above all protect the neck and the scramble. Do not get careless in transition, where every one of his UFC losses has lived.
Fire the straight-left counter and body kicks as Perez enters — the weapons that were already landing in fight one. Then bank rounds and drag it into deep water, letting his cardio and Perez's 34-year-old body decide Round 3, the blueprint of his last three decision wins. He does not need a highlight; he needs to be the longer, fresher, cleaner man for 15 uninterrupted minutes.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
⚖️The Rematch & the Reach
This is a rematch. Perez and Sumudaerji met on May 30, 2026 at UFC Macau, a bout ruled a No Contest after an accidental groin kick dropped Perez in Round 2 — but in the seven minutes before the foul, Perez was the aggressor, pressuring and mixing in level changes while Sumudaerji's counters and range began to mature late in Round 2. The physical story is a clean split: the length and youth belong to the 30-year-old Tibetan southpaw (+7" reach, 72" to 65"); the leverage, wrestling, and submission pedigree to the 34-year-old former title challenger. On the outside it is a bad geometric look for the shorter man; the instant it hits the mat, the geometry inverts.
🎯Technical Breakdown
The numbers divide almost perfectly along the fight's central axis. Sumudaerji owns every on-the-feet-at-range marker — more reach, higher accuracy (50% to 45%), better defense (63% to 59%), far less damage absorbed (2.29 to 3.24 SApM), and the cardio to bank three rounds (10:44 average). Perez owns every grappling-and-power marker — takedown rate (2.07 to 0.76 per 15), knockdown power (0.83 to 0.38), a live submission rate, and seven career submission wins to Sumudaerji's one. Read honestly, the composite model even grades Sumudaerji higher overall (~60 to ~53) on the strength of that cleaner striking and younger body — which is exactly why the conviction here is modest.
🧩Key Battle Areas
So why does the outcome model still favor Perez? Because a 0–100 composite cannot see the one match-specific variable that decides this fight: submission defense. Sumudaerji's 73% takedown defense is real and may stuff the initial shots — but takedown defense and submission defense are different skills, and every serious loss of his career (armbar, triangle, arm-triangle, and three more on the regional scene) came from the exact skill Perez specializes in. This is a phase-control fight: if it stays standing, Sumudaerji's edge is real but merely wins rounds; if it touches the mat, Perez's edge ends the fight.
🏁Final Prediction
The single most likely individual outcome is actually Sumudaerji by decision (28%) — the reach and cardio winning a range battle over 15 minutes. But Perez is the more likely overall winner (56%) because his probability is split across three methods while Sumudaerji's 44% is concentrated on the cards. Perez's sharpest path is the submission (22%) — a proven anaconda/arm-triangle finisher against a fighter submitted in six of seven losses — with a phase-controlling decision (20%) and a power/leg-kick KO (14%) behind it. Sumudaerji's 44% is the decision (28%), his southpaw-power KO (15%), and a rounding-level submission (1%).
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
THE VALUE THESIS
Model: 22% | Fair: +355 — clear value at +350+
BEST UNDERDOG PLAY
Model: 28% | Fair: +257 — his likeliest path
FAIR / LIVE
Model: 36% | Fair: +178 (KO 14 + Sub 22)
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Submission threat underpriced – a 7-time sub finisher meets a man submitted in 6 of 7 career losses.
- • Anchored on the reach – the line leans on the +7", the youth, and the win streak, not the phase control.
- • First-fight prior ignored – Perez was ahead and imposing his game before the accidental foul.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Alex Perez
Grinds a phase-controlling decision — control time and leg kicks
Power right hand or chopping leg kicks — capped by a granite chin
Anaconda/arm-triangle off a scramble vs. a porous sub defense
💥Outcome Distribution - Sumudaerji
Southpaw power and reach against a man with two prior TKO losses
His likeliest path — and the fight's single most likely outcome
A rounding-level token — one career sub win, negligible UFC threat
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Sumudaerji
- • Distance control: Keep Perez on the end of the jab and straight left; never touch the fence.
- • Defend the neck: Sprawl and hand-fight — the level change and the scramble are the whole fight.
- • Deep water: Bank rounds, counter as he enters, and let the cardio and age gap decide R3.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Alex Perez
- • Leg kicks: Chop the base from the opening bell to slow the seven-inch reach's footwork.
- • The scramble: Welcome the clinch; any mat exchange feeds the anaconda/arm-triangle finish.
- • Finish early: His 6:47 average says end it in Rounds 1–2, before the cardio question arrives.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Genuine but modest Perez lean — the composite model honestly favors Sumudaerji
✅Supporting Factors
- • Submission asymmetry: 7-time finisher vs 6-of-7 sub losses
- • Was already winning their first fight before the foul
- • Sumudaerji poses no grappling threat back (1 career sub)
- • Elite strength of schedule + the Charles Johnson thread
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Seven-inch reach and southpaw stance own the striking
- • 73% TDD may stuff Perez's low (21%) takedown accuracy
- • Perez is 34, injury-prone, and coming off a weight miss
🏁Executive Summary
The composite model and the outcome model deliberately disagree, and that tension is the story. On the feet at range, Sumudaerji is the cleaner, safer, younger striker — seven inches longer, 50% accuracy to 45%, 63% defense to 59%, and a proven three-round engine (10:44 average) against a 34-year-old whose deep-water cardio is unproven. That is why the composite grades him higher (~60 to ~53). But the outcome model corrects for the one variable a composite cannot see: submission defense. Sumudaerji has been submitted in six of his seven career losses; Perez is a seven-time submission finisher who was already imposing his pressure-and-grapple game in their first meeting before an accidental groin kick forced a No Contest. Over three rounds this reduces to a single question of where the fight happens.
Prediction: Alex Perez wins ~56% of simulations — most often by submission (22%) dragging a defensively porous striker into the scramble where Sumudaerji has drowned six times, with a phase-controlling decision (20%) and a power/leg-kick KO (14%) behind it. Sumudaerji's ~44% lives mostly in the decision (28%) — the single most likely individual outcome — where his reach, youth, and cardio win a 15-minute range battle, plus a southpaw-power KO (15%). This is a fight about where, not who: if Perez makes it a grappling fight his submission threat is overwhelming; if Sumudaerji keeps it at range the younger, longer man wins the cards. The slight lean reflects that Perez's winning phase ends the fight while Sumudaerji's only wins rounds — but the reach and the age gap keep it well short of a confident call.