Umar Nurmagomedov vs Yadong Song
Bantamweight Bout • UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song
Saturday, August 29, 2026 • Shanghai Indoor Stadium, Shanghai, China
Explore Detailed Fighter Profiles
Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Umar Nurmagomedov
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Yadong Song
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Umar Nurmagomedov
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2026 | Deiveson Figueiredo | W | Decision — Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| Oct 2025 | Mario Bautista | W | Decision — Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| Jan 2025 | Merab Dvalishvili | L | Decision — Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
| Aug 2024 | Cory Sandhagen | W | Decision — Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
| Mar 2024 | Bekzat Almakhan | W | Decision — Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Yadong Song
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 2026 | Deiveson Figueiredo | W | SUB — Guillotine Choke (R2, —) |
| Jan 2026 | Sean O'Malley | L | Decision — Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| Feb 2025 | Henry Cejudo | W | Technical Decision (R4, —) |
| Mar 2024 | Petr Yan | L | Decision — Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| Dec 2023 | Chris Gutiérrez | W | Decision — Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (73 vs 66) and Grappling Composite (85 vs 55). Balances overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Visual comparison of key performance metrics between both fighters
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Umar Nurmagomedov Key Advantages
Nurmagomedov's wrestling is the engine of the fight, and it is not close: roughly five takedown entries per five minutes, a 93% control rate, and third-most total control time among active bantamweights. He landed 11 takedowns on 14 attempts against Mario Bautista and scored a takedown in every round against Cory Sandhagen — the same rangy technician who cut Song apart. All of it is pointed at a 74% takedown defense that looks fine on paper but has never met a Dagestani-caliber chain-wrestler. Over 25 minutes the cumulative probability that this volume breaks Song down is high, and every completed takedown resets the fight into the phase Song cannot win.
The single best answer to a power-puncher is to be impossible to hit clean, and that is exactly what Nurmagomedov is. His 61% striking defense and 1.86 significant strikes absorbed per minute are elite, championship-caliber marks — the stingiest numbers in this fight by a distance, less than half of what Song absorbs. You cannot detonate a left hook you cannot land, and the two men who actually out-struck Song over three rounds (Petr Yan, Sean O'Malley) were more hittable than Umar and brought none of his wrestling. Song's 44% accuracy meeting this shell is a losing efficiency matchup before the takedowns even start.
Nurmagomedov's finishing mechanism is the rear-naked choke off back control — seven career submissions in the classic Dagestani template — aimed at a man who does almost nothing off his back (just 8% of Song's output is on the mat) and who will be forced there repeatedly. The longer the fight runs, the more the choke looms. And it is a five-round main event built for him: he already went 25 hard minutes with Merab Dvalishvili, the sport's benchmark for pace, and did not fade. Against an opponent who has never been made to carry a wrestler's weight into the championship rounds, proven deep-water cardio is a compounding, structural edge.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
The two ways a heavy favorite loses this fight are both concentrated in the opening ten minutes. If Nurmagomedov respects the power too much and hangs at distance early, he gives Song's 0.48-knockdown left hook the clean look it needs; if he ducks his head on a lazy level change, he swims into the guillotine Song just finished Figueiredo with. Umar shoots often, and a wrestler who shoots repeatedly against a proven neck-hunter is handing out invitations. One careless entry or one flat-footed exchange in round one can end the night before his control game ever takes hold.
Song's 20% leg-kick investment chops the drive base, the takedown entries turn sloppy, and the fight stays vertical longer than the model expects — extending Song's power window round after round. Umar's own offense is low-margin: a 0.12 knockdown average means he almost never ends a fight on the feet, so a night of stuffed entries against a fresh, dangerous puncher keeps the one phase Song can win open far too long. The longer it stays standing, the more the underdog's single clean connection becomes a question of when, not if.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Song's danger is front-loaded, so respect the first five minutes: change levels behind the jab, stay defensively tight, and let the fight age into deep water where the edges all belong to Nurmagomedov. He does not need to win the opening exchanges — he needs to survive them. Every round that passes without a clean Song left hook is a round closer to the grind his wrestling, control, and championship gas tank are built to win.
Volume of entries wins the phase — but head up, elbows in, no lazy shots, because the guillotine is the only landmine and Song will hunt it. Chain the takedowns, establish top position, and work to the back where the rear-naked choke is the highest-percentage finish against a man who does nothing off his back. There is no reason to trade with a live puncher when the grappling gap is this wide — get on top, bank the control time, and let rounds three through five compound on the cards while the choke stays live.
🚀 Yadong Song Key Advantages
This is the entire case for the upset, and it is a real one. Song's 0.48 knockdown average and 39% career KO rate are genuine, division-relevant power — roughly four times Nurmagomedov's 0.12 — carried in a signature left hook that needs no setup and no sustained success. He first-round KO'd Marlon Moraes and owns seven first-round finishes; against a low-power opponent he stays live all night. One clean connection in any standing exchange, most dangerously in the opening ten minutes before the wrestling engages, rewrites the whole fight regardless of what the control numbers say.
Song has never been cleanly knocked out across 34 pro fights, and his lone stoppage loss came from a cut, not a concussion — so against Umar's minimal power he is extremely unlikely to be finished by strikes. That durability keeps him upright and live deep into the fight. Better still, he owns the one counter tailor-made for a wrestler who shoots five times a round: the guillotine he just used to submit Deiveson Figueiredo. Every careless Nurmagomedov level change is an invitation, and one squeezed neck ends the main event in Song's favor.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
The power does not land clean in the first two rounds, the takedowns start landing, and the control time piles up. Song's "stay standing" plan dies against a wrestler he simply cannot stuff — his 74% takedown defense has never faced volume and control like this, and once he is put on his back his output falls to almost nothing while Nurmagomedov banks rounds and hunts the choke. It becomes a slow, lopsided drowning toward a wide decision loss or a late rear-naked choke, exactly the grind Umar's game is built to produce.
Trailing on the cards and needing a finish, Song reaches on a desperation shot in the championship rounds and gets his back taken by the fresher man. His deep-water reps were all fought at his own tempo — never while being controlled — and against Nurmagomedov's Merab-tested gas tank that difference compounds. Caught tired and on his back, he is finished in exactly the phase he is weakest: the Dagestani template, executed to the letter as the rear-naked choke arrives late.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Song is a fast starter with fight-ending power, and the longer this goes the worse his odds — so throw everything at an early finish. Load up on the left hook in rounds one and two, chop the legs to tax Umar's drive base, and force him to respect the standup before he can settle into his wrestling rhythm. His round-winning mechanism is a single concussive shot in open space; the entire plan is to detonate it inside the ten-minute window when Nurmagomedov's chin is most reachable and his own power is at its peak.
Every second on the mat is a lost second, so sprawl hard, hand-fight the entries, and scramble up on contact — never accept bottom or the back. The highest-percentage finish available to him is the guillotine off a careless level change: bait the shot, snap the neck, and end it the way he ended Figueiredo. Between exchanges, keep chopping the legs and holding range to keep the fight in open space, where his power is live and Nurmagomedov's wrestling is not.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Control vs Power
This main event is a referendum on one question: can Yadong Song land the one clean left hook before Umar Nurmagomedov drags him into deep water? In open space Song's 0.48 knockdown power is a genuine equalizer, and his first ten minutes are the most dangerous of the fight. But this is the departure from the standard puncher-versus-wrestler script — Nurmagomedov is also the sharper defensive striker (61% defense, 1.86 absorbed), so Song cannot simply out-box him over 25 minutes the way a bigger sniper might. Once Umar changes levels and the control time climbs, the space Song needs disappears, and the fight tilts hard toward the favorite.
🎯Technical Breakdown
The statistical gap widens on every axis that pays out over time. Nurmagomedov owns elite takedown volume (~4+/15), a 93% control rate, and a submission pedigree, against a Song takedown defense (74%) that has never been stress-tested by a Dagestani-caliber wrestler. On the feet Umar's 61% defense and 1.86 absorbed per minute dwarf Song's 55% and 3.81, and his 56% accuracy tops Song's 44%. Song owns exactly two "flash" categories — knockdown power (0.48 vs 0.12) and raw volume (4.34 vs 3.86 SLpM) — and essentially nothing that compounds across a five-round grind.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Three battles decide it: Song's untested 74% takedown defense versus Nurmagomedov's chain-wrestling and 93% control; the guillotine and the left hook — Song's two early finish windows — versus the disciplined, head-up entries meant to deny them; and the currency of cardio in the championship rounds. Song's engine is real, but it was built fighting at his own tempo — spent instead defending takedowns and carrying a wrestler's weight, it is taxed in a far heavier currency, exactly as Umar's proven 25-minute war with Merab Dvalishvili showed his own tank can handle.
🏁Final Prediction
The most likely outcome is Umar Nurmagomedov by Decision (58%) — the direct product of his last four ranked wins all being control-heavy shutouts against a durable opponent who is very hard to finish but very easy to out-position. His submission path (15%) is the signature Dagestani route: five rounds of back-exposure and a proven rear-naked choke, most likely to arrive late as Song tires. Song's cleanest lane is an early left-hook KO (14%); a five-round decision (4%) or a guillotine (2%) round out his slim case. Nurmagomedov most likely by decision or late submission.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 58% | Fair: -138
GOOD VALUE
Model: 78% | Fair: -355
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 62% | Fair: -163
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Overpriced favorite juice – the market opened Umar −700; laying that on a man who rarely finishes is poor value versus our −450.
- • Underrates Song's power & chin – a genuine 0.48-knockdown puncher who has never been cleanly KO'd carries slight live-dog value at +360/+500.
- • Method & rounds beat the moneyline – Umar by Decision and Over 2.5 Rounds capture his likeliest path at far better prices than −450.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Umar Nurmagomedov
Most likely path — control-heavy shutout on the cards
Accumulation / ground-and-pound, not one-shot power
Signature route — rear-naked choke off the back, likely late
💥Outcome Distribution - Yadong Song
His entire case — one clean left hook, most likely early
Stuff the takedowns and out-strike a sharper boxer over 25
Live only because his guillotine punishes a careless shot
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Yadong Song
- • First 10 minutes: Load the left hook while the power window is open.
- • Leg kicks: Chop the drive base to tax the takedown entries.
- • Guillotine trap: Bait the careless shot and snap the neck.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Umar Nurmagomedov
- • Chain-wrestling: Volume entries break an untested 74% takedown defense.
- • Compounding control: A 93% control rate banks rounds three through five.
- • Deep-water hunt: Rear-naked choke threat live into the championship fifth.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Multi-layered edge on Nurmagomedov, honestly capped by a live puncher's chance and one guillotine trap
✅Supporting Factors
- • Elite chain-wrestling into an untested 74% TDD
- • Stingiest defensive striking in the fight (61% def, 1.86 absorbed)
- • Proven 25-min cardio vs the pace king (Dvalishvili)
- • Beat the same Sandhagen who stopped Song
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Song's 0.48 KO power needs no setup — one left hook ends it
- • Live guillotine counters the exact shots Umar throws most
- • Song's chin has never been cleanly cracked (34 pro fights)
- • Umar rarely finishes; composites are web-only estimates
🏁Executive Summary
Across 100 simulations the pattern is consistent: in roughly 80, Umar Nurmagomedov weathers a dangerous, high-variance opening, changes levels, and turns the main event into the five-round grind his wrestling, control, and championship gas tank are built to win — out-pointing Song to a wide decision (58), drowning him into a late rear-naked choke as his durable chin keeps him conscious but not competitive (15), or accumulating a championship-round TKO (7). In the other 20, Song's power does what the favorite's game cannot fully prevent: he lands the left hook clean, most dangerously early (14), steals a rare decision by keeping it standing (4), or snaps the neck on a careless entry (2). The mirror is clean — Umar owns everything that compounds over 25 minutes; Song owns the one shot that can burn it all down in an instant.
Prediction: Nurmagomedov by decision or late submission most likely (58% decision, 15% submission); Song's upset lane is an early left-hook KO (14%) with a slim decision (4%) or guillotine (2%) behind it. The fight comes down to one question — can Yadong Song land the single clean left hook in the opening ten minutes before the best control wrestler and gas tank he has ever faced drags him into deep water and never lets him back up?