Marcus McGhee vs Benardo Sopaj – UFC 332: Silva vs. Wang Fight Analytics & Prediction

PRELIM · BANTAMWEIGHT · 3 ROUNDSUFC 332: Silva vs. Wang

Marcus McGhee

11W2L

Distance Volume Striker

…

Benardo Sopaj

13W3L

Pressure Grappler

…

Ninety percent takedown defence against two and a half takedowns a round

BantamweightDelta Center, Salt Lake City, Utah, United StatesOctober 3, 2026Standard 30ft Octagon · 4,300 ft elevation

The Frame

What this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it

The Analyst's Take

One collision decides this and both sides of it are well measured. Benardo Sopaj attempts 2.43 takedowns per fifteen minutes at 30% accuracy, holds 77 and 89 seconds of control in the first two rounds, lands 28-37% of his offence from the mat, and submitted Timmy Cuamba in the second round in May 2026. Marcus McGhee stuffs 90% of takedowns — thirteen points better than Sopaj and among the best figures at 135 pounds — lands 5.44 significant strikes per minute from three inches of extra reach, and carries a knockdown average of 0.50 in an average second round, the highest single knockdown number anywhere at UFC 332. Everything else is secondary. The supporting arguments split neatly: McGhee has the reach, the volume, the sprawl and a record of 4-1 whose only loss is to former champion Petr Yan; Sopaj has fourteen points of accuracy, ten years, four career submissions to one, and an output curve that climbs from 16.0 to 25.5 across three rounds while McGhee's falls from 28.0 to 17.5. Model: McGhee 54% / Sopaj 46%, conviction 4/10.

Marcus McGhee

Attribute

Benardo Sopaj

Age

10 years26

5'8" (68")

Height

5'6" (66")

69"+3" McGhee

Reach

66"

Brazilian jiu-jitsu base, distance striking game

Fighting Style

Pressure wrestling and top control

Detroit, United States

Origin

Albania — fights out of Stockholm, Sweden

90%

Takedown Defence

77%

0.24

Takedowns / 15

2.43

5-1 in his last six, the loss to Petr Yan

Recent Form

Two straight UFC wins, the last a submission

Two inches of height and three of reach to McGhee, which at 135 pounds is a genuine edge and shows up directly in his distance share — 86.2% of his opening-round offence and 96-97% of his later-round offence lands at range. Sopaj is the shorter, thicker fighter and his answer is the one shorter fighters always reach for: get inside, get a grip, and change the floor of the fight. His clinch and ground shares are the highest on this card. The complication is that closing three inches against 90% takedown defence is expensive, and McGhee's knockdown average peaks in exactly the round Sopaj commits hardest.

Venue Factor
The Delta Center's 4,300 feet lands on a fight with an eleven-year age gap and two output curves running in opposite directions. McGhee's falls 25% by the third round; Sopaj's rises 59%. Thin air makes the later rounds more expensive for both, and only one of them is 36.

The Fighters

Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage

Marcus McGhee

Pro Record

11-2-0

UFC Record

4-1 across five scored Octagon bouts

Streak

Coming off a unanimous decision over John Yannis

Finish Rate

82% (9 of 11 wins) — 8 KO/TKO, 1 submission, 2 decisions

Avg Fight Time

10:29 in the UFC

Chin · Solid — never stoppedSOS · Excellent — one loss, to a former championDistance volume striker

A late-arriving bantamweight who has beaten almost everyone put in front of him. McGhee debuted in the UFC at 33 and has gone 4-1 — a second-round submission of Journey Newson, first- and second-round knockouts of JP Buys and Gaston Bolaños, a unanimous decision over Jonathan Martinez at UFC 309, and a decision over John Yannis in June 2026. The only defeat is a decision to former champion Petr Yan in July 2025. Two numbers define his profile. The first is 90% takedown defence, the highest figure in this bout and one of the best at 135 pounds. The second is a knockdown average of 0.50 in an average second round — the highest single knockdown figure anywhere on this card. He fights almost entirely at range: 86.2%, 96.4% and 97.1% of his offence lands at distance across the three rounds.

Benardo Sopaj

Pro Record

13-3-0

UFC Record

2-1 across two scored Octagon bouts

Streak

Two consecutive UFC wins

Finish Rate

85% (11 of 13 wins) — 7 KO/TKO, 4 submissions, 2 decisions

Avg Fight Time

12:22 in the UFC

Chin · Stopped once — Vinicius Oliveira, 2024SOS · Rising — two straight Octagon winsPressure grappler

An Albanian bantamweight out of Stockholm who has quietly become one of the better grapplers in the division's lower half. Sopaj arrived in March 2024 and was knocked out in the third round by Vinicius Oliveira, then answered with a unanimous decision over Ricky Turcios at UFC 311 and a second-round submission of Timmy Cuamba in May 2026. His round profile is the most grappling-heavy on this card: 28.1%, 37.2% and 31.4% of his landed strikes come on the ground, with control time of 77, 89 and 44 seconds across the three rounds and a takedown average of 2.43 per fifteen minutes. He also has the second-best accuracy figure in this bout at 58%, and his output rises every round — 16.0, 21.5, 25.5 significant strikes landed.

Marcus McGhee

0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Knockdown Exchange

KD dealt vs absorbed

Benardo Sopaj

0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Marcus McGheesignature weapons

The Round-2 KnockdownA knockdown average of 0.50 in an average second round — the highest single knockdown figure on this card — behind eight career knockouts

×8

Elite Takedown Defence90% takedown defence, the best figure in this bout and among the best at 135 pounds, with 96-97% of his offence landing at distance in the later rounds

×11

Benardo Sopajsignature weapons

The Fence-to-Mat Chain2.43 takedowns per fifteen minutes with 77 and 89 seconds of control in the first two rounds, and 28-37% of his offence landing on the ground

×4

Rising Output16.0, 21.5 and 25.5 significant strikes landed at 52.5%, 59.7% and 55.4% accuracy — he gets busier and stays clean

×11

Marcus McGhee

John Yannis

Decision — Unanimous

RR3

UFC FN: Muhammad vs. Bonfim — Jun 6, 2026

Petr Yan

Decision — Unanimous

RR3

UFC FN: Whittaker vs. de Ridder — Jul 26, 2025

Jonathan Martinez

Decision — Unanimous

RR3

UFC 309 — Nov 16, 2024

Gaston Bolaños

KO/TKO

RR2 (3:29)

UFC FN: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2 — Jan 13, 2024

JP Buys

KO/TKO

RR1 (2:19)

UFC FN: Luque vs. Dos Anjos — Aug 12, 2023

Pattern

Five wins and one loss across six, and the loss is the most flattering line on the page — a competitive unanimous decision against former bantamweight champion Petr Yan in July 2025. Either side of it are decisions over Jonathan Martinez and John Yannis and knockouts of Gaston Bolaños and JP Buys. Nobody has come close to finishing him.

Benardo Sopaj

Timmy Cuamba

Submission

RR2 (2:25)

UFC FN: Allen vs. Costa — May 16, 2026

Ricky Turcios

Decision — Unanimous

RR3

UFC 311 — Jan 18, 2025

Vinicius Oliveira

KO/TKO

RR3 (4:41)

UFC FN: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev — Mar 2, 2024

Geovane Vargas

KO/TKO

RR1 (4:00)

Allstars Fight Night 4 — Dec 30, 2023

Julien Pierre Lopez

KO/TKO

RR1 (0:20)

Fight Club Rush 15 — Feb 25, 2023

Pattern

Two straight UFC wins after a rough start, and the progression matters: a unanimous decision over the durable Ricky Turcios at UFC 311, then a second-round submission of Timmy Cuamba in May 2026. The Vinicius Oliveira knockout loss in March 2024 is the only stoppage against him and it arrived in a third round — the same round his control time falls from 89 seconds to 44.

Marcus McGhee

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Benardo Sopaj

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Critical Insight
Two high-finish charts that both close exactly — McGhee 8 knockouts, 1 submission and 2 decisions in 11 wins; Sopaj 7, 4 and 2 in 13. The finish rates are nearly identical at 82% and 85%, and the methods are not: nearly three-quarters of McGhee's wins came by strike and nearly a third of Sopaj's by submission. The round columns are more useful than usual here because both men finish early and often — four of McGhee's nine finishes and seven of Sopaj's eleven landed in the opening round. What neither chart shows is the deciding variable, which is defensive: 90% takedown defence against 2.43 attempts per fifteen minutes.

Common Opponents

Opponent	Marcus	Benardo
Timmy Cuamba (also on the October calendar)	—never faced	W· Submission R2 2:25 (May 2026)
Cuamba fights Louis Jourdain at UFC Edmonton two weeks after this card — Sopaj submitted him in the second round in May
Petr Yan (level proxy)	L· Unanimous decision (Jul 2025)	—never faced
McGhee's only recent loss came against a former bantamweight champion, over three competitive rounds
Vinicius Oliveira (level proxy)	—never faced	L· KO/TKO R3 4:41 (Mar 2024)
The only stoppage against Sopaj, and it arrived in a third round — the frame where his control time falls from 89 seconds to 44

The Numbers

Composites, division ranks and round-by-round evidence

Striking

SLpM 25% · StrAcc 30% · StrDef 30% · SApM 15%

Marcus

Benardo

Two points, and they are split evenly. McGhee lands more (5.44 significant strikes per minute against 4.39), defends better (56% to 53%) and absorbs less (3.64 to 4.69); Sopaj is fourteen points more accurate at 58% to 44%. The round tables sharpen it: McGhee out-lands Sopaj in the first two rounds and Sopaj out-lands him 25.5 to 17.5 in the third.

Grappling

TD/15 25% · TDAcc 25% · TDDef 30% · Sub/15 20%

Marcus

Benardo

The widest gauge gap in this bout and the reason it is close. Sopaj attempts 2.43 takedowns per fifteen minutes at 30% accuracy against 0.24 at zero credited, and 0.81 submission attempts against 0.24, with four career submissions to one. The offsetting number is the one this whole fight turns on: McGhee stuffs 90% of takedowns, thirteen points better than Sopaj and among the best figures at 135 pounds.

Technical

(Striking + Grappling) / 2

0.0

Marcus

Benardo

Eight and a half points to Sopaj, driven entirely by the grappling column — and the grappling column is precisely where McGhee's 90% takedown defence lives. The composite rewards the attempt; the fight rewards the completion.

Cardio

Fight time · pace curve · rounds contested

Marcussmall sample

Benardosmall sample

Both flagged for thin samples — McGhee's third-round row rests on two scored rounds and Sopaj's on two as well. What evidence exists favours the younger man: Sopaj's output climbs 16.0 to 25.5 and his average fight time is 12:22 against 10:29, while McGhee's output falls from 28.0 in the second to 17.5 in the third. Ten years of age difference sits under both numbers.

Overall

(Technical + Cardio) / 2

0.0

Marcus

0.0

Benardo

The composites favour Sopaj by seven and the model favours McGhee by eight. The inversion is entirely the 90% takedown defence: a gauge counts 2.43 takedown attempts as an asset, and a fight counts how many of them land.

Metric	Marcus	Benardo
Avg Fight TimeAvg Fight TimeAverage fight duration — long averages mark proven cardio and decision-ready grinders.	10:29 (UFC)	12:22 (UFC)
Pace Tier	5.44 SLpM at 44% accuracy	4.39 SLpM at 58% accuracy
R3/R1 OutputR3/R1 OutputThird-round output as % of first-round output. Above 100% = builds into the fight; below = fades.	17.5 / 23.2 — down 25%small sample	25.5 / 16.0 — up 59%small sample
Control Time (R1/R2)	22 / 12 seconds	77 / 89 seconds
Takedown Defence	90%	77%

Archetype Base Rate

Distance Volume Striker 54%46% Pressure Grappler

No archetype base-rate row exists for this pairing · No historical archetype rate is applied. The 54/46 rests on 90% takedown defence meeting 2.43 takedown attempts per fifteen minutes at 30% accuracy, three inches of reach, 5.44 significant strikes landed per minute, and a 0.50 second-round knockdown average — the highest single knockdown figure at this event. It is capped by ten years, fourteen points of accuracy, four career submissions to one, and an output curve that climbs while McGhee's falls.

Marcus McGheeBenardo Sopaj

Bantamweight

· 41 fighters

Stat	Marcus	Marcus rank	Div avg	Benardo rank	Benardo
SLpMSLpMSignificant Strikes Landed per Minute — offensive striking volume. Higher = busier striker.	5.44	—	~4.12	—	4.39
Str AccStr AccStriking Accuracy — share of significant strikes thrown that land. Higher = more precise.	44%	—	~46%	—	58%
Str DefStr DefStriking Defense — share of opponents' significant strikes that do NOT land. Higher = harder to hit.	56%	—	~56%	—	53%
SApMSApMSignificant Strikes Absorbed per Minute — how much a fighter gets hit. Lower = better.	3.64	—	~3.88	—	4.69
TD/15TD/15Takedowns Landed per 15 minutes — wrestling pressure / takedown engine.	0.24	—	~1.74	—	2.43
TD Acc	None credited	—	~35%	—	30%
TD DefTD DefTakedown Defense — share of opponents' takedown attempts stuffed.	90%	—	~63%	—	77%
Sub/15Sub/15Submission Attempts per 15 minutes — how actively a fighter hunts the finish on the mat.	0.24 (1 career sub)	—	~0.58	—	0.81 (4 career subs)
Career Finish Rate	82% (9 of 11)	—	—	—	85% (11 of 13)
Age	36	—	—	—	25
Scored UFC Rounds	11	—	—	—	6

Statistical Verdict
McGhee is above the bantamweight baseline on output and damage taken, at baseline on striking defence, twelve points under it on accuracy, and twenty-seven points above it on takedown defence — 90% against a ~63% divisional average, which is the single largest positive deviation in this bout. Sopaj is twelve points above baseline on accuracy, well above it on takedown volume and submission threat, and below it on damage absorbed at 4.69. The two rows at the bottom are the caution: ten years of age difference, and eleven scored Octagon rounds against six.

Significant Strikes Landed per Round

Control Time per Round (sec)

Marcus McGhee

His second round is the loudest five minutes of his career: 28.0 significant strikes landed with a knockdown average of 0.50, the highest single knockdown figure at UFC 332, and 96.4% of it at distance.
The distance share climbs to 97.1% by the third round with control time falling to eight seconds. He does not clinch, he does not wrestle, and he does not need to.
Output falls 25% from the second round to the third — 28.0 to 17.5 — which is the clearest vulnerability on his sheet and the reason the third round is shaded to his opponent.
Both his Round-3 figures rest on two scored rounds. His overall sample is 11 rounds across five Octagon bouts.

Benardo Sopaj

The most grappling-heavy profile on this card: 28.1%, 37.2% and 31.4% of his landed strikes come on the ground, with control time of 77 and 89 seconds in the first two rounds.
Output and accuracy both hold up as the fight goes on — 16.0, 21.5, 25.5 landed at 52.5%, 59.7%, 55.4% — and his knockdown average reaches 0.50 in the third.
His control time drops sharply in the third, from 89 seconds to 44, which is also the round Vinicius Oliveira knocked him out in.
Two scored bouts and six rounds of data. Every figure on his side is directional, and the sample-size column reflects it.

Critical Insight
Two profiles built to frustrate each other, with the crossing point in the third round. McGhee owns the first two on volume and distance — 23.2 and 28.0 landed at 86-96% range, with his knockdown average peaking at 0.50 in the second — while Sopaj banks 77 and 89 seconds of control in the same ten minutes and puts a third of his offence on the mat. Then the curves swap: McGhee falls to 17.5 with eight seconds of control and Sopaj climbs to 25.5. Both third-round rows are two rounds deep, so the crossing is a direction rather than a fact, and ten years of age difference is the reason to take it seriously anyway.

Strike Targeting (career avg)

Head hunting vs body work vs leg attack — the shape of the damage.

Range Profile — where the minutes go

MarcusBenardo

93%Distance55%

4%Clinch13%

3%Ground32%

Share of significant-strike volume by range from UFC career data. Debutants / fighters without Octagon samples show as N/A.

The Story of the Fight

Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath

Where the fight lives

Who owns each phase — and by how much

Open SpaceMarcus owns it

Three inches of reach, 5.44 significant strikes per minute against 4.39, and 96-97% distance share in the later rounds

Pocket / ExchangesMarcus owns it

Eight career knockouts against seven, and a 0.50 second-round knockdown average — the highest on this card

ClinchBenardo owns it

Sopaj holds 77 and 89 seconds of control in the first two rounds against 22 and 12 — but McGhee stuffs 90% of the takedowns that follow

GroundBenardo owns it

Four career submissions against one, 0.81 attempts per fifteen against 0.24, and 28-37% of his offence landing from top position

Path to Victory

Marcus McGhee

Stuff the shot. Ninety percent takedown defence against 2.43 attempts a round leaves nothing else for his opponent to do.

Why they win

90% takedown defence

Thirteen points better than his opponent and twenty-seven above the divisional baseline, against a man whose entire game is 2.43 takedowns per fifteen minutes.

Three inches of reach

And 96-97% of his later-round offence landing at distance. He does not have to be anywhere near the grappling.

The highest knockdown figure at UFC 332

0.50 per average second round, arriving in exactly the frame Sopaj commits hardest to the takedown.

5.44 significant strikes per minute

Above the bantamweight baseline and a full strike a minute more than his opponent.

4-1 with the loss to a former champion

Petr Yan, over three competitive rounds. Sopaj has not faced anyone at that level.

Never stopped in thirteen professional fights

Against a man who has been knocked out once, in a third round.

The gameplan

1
Fight at three inches
96-97% of his later-round offence already lands at distance. Every step backwards is a step away from the only fight Sopaj can win.
2
Punish the entry
His knockdown average is 0.50 in the second round and a shooting wrestler is the most catchable target in MMA.
3
Do not chase the finish into the clinch
Sopaj puts 28-37% of his offence on the ground and owns four career submissions. The knockout has to come at range.
4
Fix the third round
Output falls 25% and control to eight seconds. He does not need to be busier — he needs to not be 25% quieter.
5
Use the fence deliberately
Sopaj is the shorter man and needs to close; making him do it in open space rather than against the cage removes his best entry.
6
Contingency — if Plan A fails
If he is taken down twice in the first two rounds, the 90% figure has failed and the fight becomes about getting up rather than winning the exchange.

Path to Victory

Benardo Sopaj

Land one takedown a round. Seventy-seven and eighty-nine seconds of control is a scorecard argument nobody beats at range.

Why they win

Fourteen points of striking accuracy

58% against 44%, and it holds every round: 52.5%, 59.7%, 55.4%.

2.43 takedowns per fifteen minutes at 30% accuracy

Ten times his opponent's volume, with control time of 77 and 89 seconds in the first two rounds.

Four career submissions against one

Including a second-round finish of Timmy Cuamba in May 2026 — the most recent evidence anyone has about him.

Ten years younger

25 against 36, at 4,300 feet, with an output curve that climbs 59% across the fight.

McGhee's output falls 25% by the third

From 28.0 landed to 17.5, with control time collapsing to eight seconds.

28-37% of his offence lands on the ground

The highest ground share on this card, and a phase McGhee has essentially no data in.

The gameplan

1
Chain the takedowns, do not shoot them
30% accuracy against 90% defence says the single entry is not there; the fence, the trip and the scramble are.
2
Use the accuracy edge to close
Fourteen points more accurate means he can win exchanges on the way in rather than merely surviving them.
3
Avoid the second-round exchange
McGhee's knockdown average peaks at 0.50 there. That is the round to grapple, not to trade.
4
Bank control time early
77 and 89 seconds in the first two rounds is a scorecard argument that does not require a finish.
5
Fight the third hard
His output climbs to 25.5 while McGhee falls to 17.5, and there are ten years between them at 4,300 feet.
6
Contingency — if Plan A fails
If the takedowns are stuffed in the first two rounds, he has to win the third on volume — 25.5 landed at 55.4% is enough if the first two were close.

Danger Zone

How Marcus McGhee loses

The 90% figure is a five-fight artifact, Sopaj lands two takedowns a round, and 89 seconds of control decides three cards.
His output falls 25% in the third as it did against John Yannis, and a 25-year-old climbing to 25.5 landed takes the round and the fight.
He gets caught in the scramble after a stuffed shot by the man with four career submissions.

Danger Zone

How Benardo Sopaj loses

He shoots into 90% takedown defence all night, gets nowhere, and loses three rounds to three inches of reach.
He commits to the entry in the second round — where McGhee's knockdown average is 0.50 — and gets dropped on the way in.
His control time falls in the third as it always does, in the same round Vinicius Oliveira knocked him out.

The collision that decides it

90% Against 2.43

Marcus McGhee stuffs 90% of takedowns — among the best figures at 135 pounds and thirteen points clear of his opponent. Benardo Sopaj attempts 2.43 per fifteen minutes at 30% accuracy, with 77 and 89 seconds of control in the first two rounds and 28-37% of his offence landing on the mat. Everything else on this page is secondary to which of those two numbers is closer to the truth.

90% v 2.43

takedown defence vs takedowns per 15

McGhee's second round

The Highest Knockdown Figure on the Card

Across four scored second rounds, Marcus McGhee averages 0.50 knockdowns — the highest single knockdown number anywhere at UFC 332. It arrives in the same round Sopaj records his peak control time of 89 seconds. Whichever of those two things happens first probably decides the fight.

0.50

McGhee knockdowns per Round 2

The third round

Two Curves, Opposite Directions

McGhee's output falls from 28.0 in the second round to 17.5 in the third and his control time to eight seconds; Sopaj's climbs from 16.0 to 25.5 with accuracy holding above 55%. Both third-round rows rest on two scored rounds, so the interval is wide — but the direction is unambiguous, and there are ten years between these men.

17.5 v 25.5

sig. strikes landed, average Round 3

The unusual age shape

Eleven Years the Wrong Way

The prospect here is 25 and the veteran is 36 — but the 36-year-old debuted in the UFC only three years ago and is 4-1, with his single loss to a former champion. McGhee is old for a fighter with five Octagon bouts, which means the usual age argument cuts less cleanly than it looks.

A rare cross-reference

Both Have Fought Someone on the October Calendar

Sopaj submitted Timmy Cuamba in the second round in May 2026; Cuamba fights Louis Jourdain at UFC Edmonton two weeks after this card. McGhee lost a decision to Petr Yan in July 2025. The two results bracket the level gap between these men neatly — one has beaten a prelim fighter, the other has lost to a former champion.

The Five-Round Clock

Marcus McGhee danger windowBenardo Sopaj danger windowNeutral / contested

R1 · 0:00–5:00The range round

McGhee lands 23.2 at 47.7% with 86.2% of it at distance and a 0.20 knockdown average; Sopaj lands 16.0 at 52.5% with 77 seconds of control and 28.1% of his offence on the ground. Both men get exactly what they want, and the judges decide whose version counts.

Critical Insight
Two peaks in the same five minutes and a crossing point after them. McGhee's knockdown average reaches 0.50 in the second round — the highest single figure at this event — and Sopaj's control time reaches 89 seconds in exactly the same frame. Whichever of those lands first is very likely the fight. If neither does, the third belongs to the younger man on the current evidence: his output climbs to 25.5 while McGhee's falls to 17.5 and his control time collapses to eight seconds. Both third-round rows are two rounds deep, so that reading is a direction rather than a certainty.

Finish Threat by Round

Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.

The Verdict

One hundred simulated fights, the betting market, and our conviction

If you only read 3 things

One number decides this: Marcus McGhee stuffs 90% of takedowns and Benardo Sopaj attempts 2.43 per fifteen minutes at 30% accuracy, with 77 and 89 seconds of control in the first two rounds.

McGhee carries a 0.50 knockdown average in an average second round — the highest single knockdown figure at UFC 332 — and it arrives in the exact frame Sopaj commits hardest to the entry.

Model: McGhee 54% / Sopaj 46%, conviction 4/10 — one of the flattest distributions on the card, with no bucket above 27%.

100 Simulated Fights

McGhee Decision — 27%Sopaj Decision — 21%McGhee KO/TKO — 23%Sopaj Submission — 13%Sopaj KO/TKO — 12%McGhee Submission — 4%

Each square = 1 simulated fight. Marcus McGhee gold · Benardo Sopaj orange · full color = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

The takedown collision

90% defence against 2.43 attempts per fifteen at 30% accuracy. Everything else in this fight is downstream of it.

Three inches of reach and 5.44 SLpM

McGhee's distance game, with 96-97% of his later-round offence landing at range.

The 0.50 second-round knockdown average

The highest single knockdown figure at UFC 332, arriving in the round a wrestler commits hardest.

Fourteen points of accuracy

Sopaj's 58% against 44%, holding across all three rounds.

Ten years and crossing output curves

Sopaj climbs 59% from Round 1 to Round 3; McGhee falls 25% from Round 2 to Round 3.

Thin samples on both sides

Eleven scored rounds against six, with both third-round rows two rounds deep. Conviction is four for a reason.

Fight Scripts

of simulations

The Sprawl Holds

Ninety percent takedown defence does what it says, Sopaj's 2.43 attempts per fifteen minutes go nowhere, and McGhee out-lands him at range for two rounds behind three inches of reach. The most likely single outcome and the cleanest expression of the matchup.

Scripted outcomes for Marcus McGhee vs Benardo Sopaj — how each version of this fight unfolds.

Marcus McGhee win probability

23%

27%

KO/TKODECSUB

Eight career knockouts and a 0.50 second-round knockdown average — the highest single knockdown figure at UFC 332 — aimed at a man already stopped once, in a third round, by Vinicius Oliveira.
The largest bucket on the page and the direct output of 90% takedown defence: if the wrestling does not land, three inches of reach and 5.44 significant strikes per minute win rounds.
One career submission and 0.24 attempts per fifteen minutes. Small, and it runs into the better grappler — this is a scramble outcome rather than a plan.

Benardo Sopaj win probability

12%

21%

13%

KO/TKODECSUB

Seven career knockouts including two first-round finishes on the Swedish regional scene, and a 0.50 knockdown average of his own in the third round. Real, if secondary to the grappling.
His most repeatable path: 2.43 takedowns per fifteen, control time of 77 and 89 seconds, and an output curve rising to 25.5 by the third. It needs roughly a third of the entries to land.
Four career submissions and 0.81 attempts per fifteen minutes, including a second-round finish of Timmy Cuamba in May 2026 — the single most distinctive path in this fight.

Projected Scorecards

How the model scores each round

Marcus

Benardo

29-28 McGhee

McGhee takes the first two at range; Sopaj takes the third on volume and control

The most likely card, and the shape the model expects

29-28 Sopaj

The takedowns land in two of three rounds

Equally live — 2.43 attempts per fifteen against 90% defence is genuinely uncertain

30-27 McGhee

The sprawl holds all fifteen minutes and the reach does the rest

His Jonathan Martinez template, repeated

Moneyline

Marcus McGhee

Not posted

Benardo Sopaj

Not posted

No book has published a line for this bout at the time of writing. Converting our own probabilities gives fair prices of Marcus McGhee -117 from 54% and Benardo Sopaj +117 from 46% — model outputs, not quotes, and close to a true pick'em. Live prices appear in the hero above once a market opens.

Props: model vs market

Prop	Odds	Implied %	Model %	Fair	Edge	Verdict

Best Value
Sopaj by submission at 13% is the most under-priced outcome on the page — four career submissions, 0.81 attempts per fifteen minutes, a second-round finish of Timmy Cuamba four months ago, and an opponent who has faced almost no elite grappling in five Octagon bouts. On the other side, McGhee by knockout at 23% is a fair expression of a 0.50 second-round knockdown average against a fighter who has to walk through three inches of reach to start his own fight. The distribution is flat by design; there is no obviously wrong price here.

Conviction

4/10

A narrow lean resting almost entirely on one defensive number. McGhee's 90% takedown defence is twenty-seven points above the bantamweight baseline and it is aimed at a fighter whose whole game is 2.43 takedowns per fifteen minutes converted at 30%. Add three inches of reach, a full strike a minute more output, and the highest knockdown average at the event, and the case is coherent. What holds it at four: ten years, fourteen points of accuracy, four career submissions to one, an output curve climbing while McGhee's falls, and the fact that the 90% figure rests on just eleven scored rounds. Lean: Marcus McGhee.

What backs the lean

90% takedown defence — twenty-seven points above the divisional baseline — against 2.43 attempts per fifteen minutes.
Three inches of reach with 96-97% of his later-round offence landing at distance.
A 0.50 second-round knockdown average, the highest single figure at UFC 332.
5.44 significant strikes landed per minute against 4.39, and 3.64 absorbed against 4.69.
4-1 in the UFC with the only loss a competitive decision to former champion Petr Yan.
Never stopped in thirteen professional fights; Sopaj has been knocked out once.

What limits it

Fourteen points of striking accuracy — 58% against 44% — holding in every round.
77 and 89 seconds of control in the first two rounds against 22 and 12.
Four career submissions against one, including a second-round finish of Timmy Cuamba in May 2026.
Ten years younger, at 4,300 feet, with an output curve climbing 59% across the fight.
McGhee's output falls 25% into the third round and his control time to eight seconds.
The 90% takedown-defence figure rests on eleven scored rounds across five Octagon bouts.

Final Assessment

In roughly fifty-four of one hundred simulations Marcus McGhee wins, and in twenty-seven of those he wins on the cards. The mechanism is a single defensive number: 90% takedown defence, twenty-seven points above the bantamweight baseline, aimed at a fighter attempting 2.43 takedowns per fifteen minutes at 30% accuracy. If the wrestling does not land, three inches of reach and 5.44 significant strikes per minute win rounds by default. Twenty-three more end by knockout, most of them in a second round where his knockdown average is the highest figure at this event.

In the other forty-six, Benardo Sopaj gets a grip. Seventy-seven and eighty-nine seconds of control in the first two rounds is a scorecard argument that does not require a finish, and 28-37% of his offence lands from top position. Thirteen of those simulations end with the fifth submission of his career — the same way he finished Timmy Cuamba in May — and twenty-one are decisions built on control time and fourteen points of accuracy.

This is one of the flattest outcome distributions on the card and the page says so: no bucket above 27%, and the deciding collision — 90% against 2.43 — rests on eleven scored rounds on one side and six on the other. Ten years and two crossing output curves keep the underdog live in every branch. On October 3 in Salt Lake City — McGhee 54% / Sopaj 46%, conviction 4/10.

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