Court McGee vs Eric Nolan – UFC 332: Silva vs. Wang Fight Analytics & Prediction

PRELIM · WELTERWEIGHT · 3 ROUNDSUFC 332: Silva vs. Wang

Court McGee

23W14L

Grinding Volume Wrestler

…

Eric Nolan

8W5L

Low-Output Counter Striker

…

Three-to-one on volume, twelve years the other way, and fifteen months of rust

WelterweightDelta Center, Salt Lake City, Utah, United StatesOctober 3, 2026Standard 30ft Octagon · 4,300 ft elevation

The Frame

What this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it

The Analyst's Take

A fight between two flawed profiles where the flaws are in completely different places. Court McGee is forty-one years old, 1-4 in his last five, has been knocked out twice since 2022, and has not competed since June 14, 2025 — a fifteen-month layoff. He is also the only fighter on this card whose control time rises every round (42, 76, 95 seconds), lands 4.50 significant strikes per minute to Eric Nolan's 1.68, stuffs 71% of takedowns to Nolan's 44%, and owns seven career submissions to two. Nolan is 0-2 in the Octagon: submitted in the second round by Baisangur Susurkaev in August 2025, then out-pointed by Farman Hasanov in June 2026. His 1.68 significant strikes landed per minute is the lowest figure of anyone competing at UFC 332. What he has is three inches of height, twelve years, four career knockouts from a three-fight CFFC run, and an opponent who has not fought in over a year. McGee is also from Ogden, Utah, roughly forty minutes from the Delta Center. Model: McGee 55% / Nolan 45%, conviction 3/10.

Court McGee

Attribute

Eric Nolan

Age

12 years29

5'11" (71")

Height

+3" Nolan6'2" (74")

75.5"

Reach

74"

Freestyle — volume and control wrestling

Fighting Style

Low-output counter striker

Ogden, Utah, United States — fighting at home

Origin

Edison, New Jersey, United States

4.50 SLpM

Output

1.68 SLpM

71%

Takedown Defence

44%

June 14, 2025 — fifteen months out

Last Fight

June 27, 2026

Three inches of height to Nolan and an inch and a half of reach to McGee, which is an awkward combination for the taller man — he has the frame to fight long but not the arms to enforce it. McGee has spent sixteen years fighting bigger welterweights and his answer has always been the same: 29.2% of his opening-round offence to the legs, 26.9% to the body, and a level change waiting behind both. Nolan's 44% takedown defence is the number that turns that from a preference into a plan.

Venue Factor
The Delta Center is roughly forty minutes from Ogden, where Court McGee was born and raised, and this is the closest thing to a home fight he has had in a decade. The 4,300-foot elevation is the other half of it, and it cuts toward the man who has actually been training at altitude rather than the one flying in from New Jersey.

The Fighters

Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage

Court McGee

Pro Record

23-14-0

UFC Record

11-13 across 24 scored Octagon bouts

Streak

One win in his last five

Finish Rate

52% (12 of 23 wins) — 5 KO/TKO, 7 submissions, 11 decisions

Avg Fight Time

12:38 in the UFC

Chin · Worn — two knockout losses since 2022SOS · Sixteen years of UFC welterweightsGrinding volume wrestler

The Ultimate Fighter 11 winner, sixteen years into a UFC career, fighting an hour from where he grew up. McGee has 24 scored Octagon bouts and a profile that has barely changed in a decade: 4.50 significant strikes landed per minute at 37% accuracy, 1.78 takedowns per fifteen minutes, and control time that climbs every round — 42 seconds, then 76, then 95. He is 1-4 in his last five, with the win a first-round submission of Tim Means at UFC 307 in October 2024, and he has not fought since losing a decision to Michael Chiesa on June 14, 2025. That is a fifteen-month layoff at forty-one years old. What has not changed is the engine: 22.7 significant strikes landed in an average second and third round, and eleven career decision wins built on exactly that.

Eric Nolan

Pro Record

8-5-0

UFC Record

0-2 across one scored Octagon bout

Streak

Two straight losses

Finish Rate

75% (6 of 8 wins) — 4 KO/TKO, 2 submissions, 2 decisions

Avg Fight Time

11:01 in the UFC

Chin · Untested — never knocked outSOS · Regional — CFFC champion levelLow-output counter striker

A CFFC product who arrived on a three-knockout run and has not yet solved the step up. Nolan went 4-0 in Cage Fury between April 2024 and May 2025 — knockouts of Aireon Tavarres, Trevor Gudde and Blayne Richards, plus a decision over R'Mandel Cameron — and took the UFC call in August 2025. Baisangur Susurkaev submitted him in the second round; Farman Hasanov out-pointed him over three in June 2026. The Octagon rate line that came out of it is stark: 1.68 significant strikes landed per minute, the lowest figure of anyone on this card, at 35% accuracy behind 45% striking defence and 44% takedown defence. Three inches of height and twelve years of youth are the assets; almost nothing measured supports them yet.

Court McGee

0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Knockdown Exchange

KD dealt vs absorbed

Eric Nolan

0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Court McGeesignature weapons

Rising Control Time42, 76 and 95 seconds of control across the three rounds — the only fighter on this card whose control climbs every frame, aimed at a 44% takedown defence

×11

The Body-and-Legs Volume29.2% of his Round-1 offence goes to the legs and 26.9% to the body, at 20.0 significant strikes landed against an opponent who lands 1.68 per minute

×23

Eric Nolansignature weapons

The Regional KnockoutThree consecutive CFFC knockouts across Tavarres, Gudde and Richards, all inside two rounds, before the UFC call

×4

Three Inches of Height6'2" against 5'11" — the frame that a 1.68 SLpM counter-striker is entirely dependent on

×8

Court McGee

Michael Chiesa

Decision — Unanimous

RR3

UFC FN: Usman vs. Buckley — Jun 14, 2025

Tim Means

Submission

RR1 (3:19)

UFC 307 — Oct 5, 2024

Alex Morono

Decision — Unanimous

RR3

UFC FN: Allen vs. Curtis 2 — Apr 6, 2024

Matt Brown

KO/TKO

RR1 (4:09)

UFC FN: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida — May 13, 2023

Jeremiah Wells

KO/TKO

RR1 (1:34)

UFC FN: Kattar vs. Emmett — Jun 18, 2022

Pattern

One win in five, and the shape is a fighter running out of road: decision losses to Michael Chiesa and Alex Morono, knockout losses to Matt Brown and Jeremiah Wells, and a single bright spot in a first-round submission of Tim Means at UFC 307. Every opponent in that sample is a tenured UFC welterweight, which is both an excuse and a warning — he has not beaten anyone of note in two years.

Eric Nolan

Farman Hasanov

Decision — Unanimous

RR3

UFC FN: Fiziev vs. Torres — Jun 27, 2026

Baisangur Susurkaev

Submission

RR2 (2:01)

UFC 319 — Aug 16, 2025

Blayne Richards

KO/TKO

RR1 (3:06)

CFFC 142 — May 24, 2025

Trevor Gudde

KO/TKO

RR2 (1:17)

CFFC 138 — Dec 13, 2024

Aireon Tavarres

KO/TKO

RR1 (3:06)

CFFC 137 — Oct 18, 2024

Pattern

Three CFFC knockouts, then two UFC losses. The Susurkaev submission is the more instructive of the two: he was taken down and finished by a wrestler in the second round, which is precisely the fight in front of him now. The Hasanov decision showed the other problem — at 1.68 significant strikes per minute, he does not do enough to win rounds against anyone who does.

Court McGee

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Eric Nolan

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Critical Insight
Two charts pointing in opposite directions and both closing exactly — McGee 5 knockouts, 7 submissions and 11 decisions in 23 wins; Nolan 4, 2 and 2 in 8. Nearly half of everything McGee has ever won came on the scorecards, and he has eleven of them; half of everything Nolan has won came by knockout, all against regional opposition. The round columns are the tell: McGee has eleven decision wins and 63 scored UFC rounds behind them, while Nolan has two decisions and two scored Octagon rounds, one of which ended with him being submitted.

Common Opponents

Opponent	Court	Eric
Baisangur Susurkaev (grappler proxy)	—never faced	L· Submission R2 2:01 (Aug 2025)
Nolan's only stoppage loss, and it came from a wrestler. McGee attempts 1.78 takedowns per fifteen minutes and owns seven career submissions
Michael Chiesa and Alex Morono (level proxies)	L· Unanimous decision to both	—has not faced a tenured UFC welterweight
McGee's recent losses are all to established Octagon names; Nolan's are to two prospects in his first two appearances
Cage Fury FC (shared level marker)	—never fought there	4-0 across CFFC 137-142, three by knockout
The run that earned Nolan the UFC call, and the level at which his 1.68 significant strikes per minute produced finishes

The Numbers

Composites, division ranks and round-by-round evidence

Striking

SLpM 25% · StrAcc 30% · StrDef 30% · SApM 15%

Court

Eric

A thirteen-point gap driven by the widest output ratio in this analysis set: 4.50 significant strikes landed per minute against 1.68 — nearly three to one. Neither man is accurate (37% and 35%) and McGee defends sixteen points better at 61% to 45%. Nolan's only measured advantage is damage absorbed, 2.59 to 3.65, and that is a function of a fight sample of one.

Grappling

TD/15 25% · TDAcc 25% · TDDef 30% · Sub/15 20%

Court

Eric

The decisive gauge. McGee attempts 1.78 takedowns per fifteen minutes against 0.00, defends 71% against 44%, and owns seven career submissions against two. Nolan has already been submitted once in the Octagon, by Baisangur Susurkaev in August 2025, and has no offensive wrestling to answer with.

Technical

(Striking + Grappling) / 2

Court

Eric

Nineteen points, the widest technical gap on this card. Everything narrowing the fight sits outside this column: twelve years, three inches, and a fifteen-month layoff.

Cardio

Fight time · control curve · layoff · age

Courtsmall sample

Ericsmall sample

Both flagged. McGee's engine is genuinely good for a 41-year-old — 12:38 average fight time, output holding at 22.7 in the second and third rounds, control time rising to 95 seconds — but he has not competed since June 2025 and is 1-4 in his last five. Nolan has one scored UFC bout and it ended with him submitted in the second round. Neither profile is trustworthy and the gap between them is smaller than the raw numbers suggest.

Overall

(Technical + Cardio) / 2

0.0

Court

Eric

Thirteen and a half points, against a model line of ten. The projection is narrower than the composites because a fifteen-month layoff at forty is not a thing a rate line can express, and neither is three inches of height on a man twelve years younger.

Metric	Court	Eric
Avg Fight TimeAvg Fight TimeAverage fight duration — long averages mark proven cardio and decision-ready grinders.	12:38 (UFC)	11:01 (UFC)small sample
Pace Tier	4.50 SLpM across 63 scored rounds	1.68 SLpM — lowest on the card
Control Time Curve	42 → 76 → 95 seconds	17 → 0 seconds
Takedown Defence	71%	44%
Layoff	15 months	3 months

Archetype Base Rate

Grinding Volume Wrestler 55%45% Low-Output Counter Striker

No archetype base-rate row exists for this pairing · No historical archetype rate is applied. The 55/45 rests on the widest output gap in this analysis set — 4.50 significant strikes per minute against 1.68 — plus 71% takedown defence against 44%, control time rising to 95 seconds, and seven career submissions against an opponent already tapped by the last wrestler he met. It is capped hard by twelve years, three inches, a 1-4 recent record, two knockout losses since 2022, and a fifteen-month layoff at forty.

Court McGeeEric Nolan

Welterweight

· 48 fighters

Stat	Court	Court rank	Div avg	Eric rank	Eric
SLpMSLpMSignificant Strikes Landed per Minute — offensive striking volume. Higher = busier striker.	4.50	—	~3.79	—	1.68
Str AccStr AccStriking Accuracy — share of significant strikes thrown that land. Higher = more precise.	37%	—	~47%	—	35%
Str DefStr DefStriking Defense — share of opponents' significant strikes that do NOT land. Higher = harder to hit.	61%	—	~56%	—	45%
SApMSApMSignificant Strikes Absorbed per Minute — how much a fighter gets hit. Lower = better.	3.65	—	~3.61	—	2.59
TD/15TD/15Takedowns Landed per 15 minutes — wrestling pressure / takedown engine.	1.78	—	~1.58	—	0.00
TD DefTD DefTakedown Defense — share of opponents' takedown attempts stuffed.	71%	—	~64%	—	44%
Sub/15Sub/15Submission Attempts per 15 minutes — how actively a fighter hunts the finish on the mat.	0.45 (7 career subs)	—	~0.47	—	0.00 (2 career subs)
UFC Record	12-13 in 25 bouts	—	—	—	0-2 in 2 bouts
Scored UFC Rounds	63	—	—	—	2
Age	40	—	—	—	28
Avg Fight TimeAvg Fight TimeAverage fight duration — long averages mark proven cardio and decision-ready grinders.	12:38	—	—	—	11:01

Statistical Verdict
Neither man is accurate — 37% and 35% against a ~47% baseline — and that is where the similarity ends. McGee is above baseline on output, striking defence, takedown volume, takedown defence and submission threat; Nolan is below baseline on every row except damage absorbed, which is a one-fight artifact. The 1.68 significant strikes per minute is the lowest figure at this event by a distance. What the table cannot show, and what holds this to a ten-point line, is the two rows at the bottom: forty-one years old against twenty-nine, and fifteen months out against three.

Significant Strikes Landed per Round

⚠ R1, R2, R3: single-fight sample for Eric Nolan

Control Time per Round (sec)

Court McGee

The only control curve on this card that rises every round: 42 seconds, 76 seconds, 95 seconds, with ground offence climbing from 2.7% to 17.9%.
Output is essentially flat and high for a 41-year-old — 20.0, 22.7, 22.7 landed — and his accuracy is at its best in the third round at 39.2%.
A committed body-and-legs striker: 29.2% of Round-1 offence to the legs and 26.9% to the body, with the head share climbing from 44.0% to 61.0% as the fight goes on.
Sixty-three scored rounds across twenty-four bouts — one of the deepest samples in this analysis set, and none of it since June 2025.

Eric Nolan

Two scored rounds in total. His first is respectable — 18.0 landed at 36.7% — and his second reads 4.0 landed because he was submitted at 2:01.
No third-round data exists: he has never contested one in the Octagon.
Zero control time in his scored second round and 17 seconds in the first. He has no offensive wrestling at all — 0.00 takedowns attempted per fifteen minutes.
His UFC.com line of 1.68 significant strikes landed per minute is the lowest at this event and derives from roughly eleven minutes of Octagon time.

Critical Insight
One deep table and one that barely exists, and the shallow one tells the more useful story: Eric Nolan's second round is 4.0 significant strikes landed and ends in a submission. That is the entire Octagon record of what happens when someone wrestles him. McGee's chart is the mirror image — control time climbing 42, 76, 95 seconds while output holds at 22.7 — and it describes exactly the fight Nolan has already lost once. The caveat is that none of McGee's data is younger than fifteen months, and he is forty.

Strike Targeting (career avg)

Head hunting vs body work vs leg attack — the shape of the damage.

Range Profile — where the minutes go

CourtEric

85%Distance79%

6%Clinch21%

9%Ground0%

Share of significant-strike volume by range from UFC career data. Debutants / fighters without Octagon samples show as N/A.

The Story of the Fight

Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath

Where the fight lives

Who owns each phase — and by how much

Open SpaceCourt owns it

4.50 significant strikes per minute against 1.68, with 90% of McGee's Round-1 offence at distance — but Nolan has three inches of height

Pocket / ExchangesEric owns it

Nolan has four career knockouts and three straight CFFC finishes; McGee has been stopped by strikes twice since 2022

ClinchCourt owns it

Control time rising 42 → 76 → 95 seconds against a fighter with 44% takedown defence and no offensive wrestling

GroundCourt owns it

Seven career submissions and 0.45 attempts per fifteen against two and 0.00, aimed at a man already submitted in the Octagon

Path to Victory

Court McGee

Wrestle. A 44% takedown defence against 1.78 attempts per fifteen minutes is the widest mismatch on the prelims.

Why they win

Nearly three-to-one on output

4.50 significant strikes landed per minute against 1.68 — the lowest figure at this event.

A control curve that never stops rising

42, 76 and 95 seconds across the three rounds, against 44% takedown defence.

Seven career submissions against two

And his opponent has already been submitted in the Octagon by the last wrestler he faced.

Sixteen points of striking defence

61% against 45%, with 63 scored UFC rounds behind it against two.

Eleven decision wins

He knows exactly how to win a fifteen-minute fight, and he has done it more often than Nolan has fought professionally.

Fighting forty minutes from home

Ogden, Utah — the closest thing to a home card of his late career, at an altitude he trains at.

The gameplan

1
Change levels early and often
A 44% takedown defence against 1.78 attempts per fifteen minutes is the widest measurable mismatch on the prelims.
2
Attack the legs and the body from the first bell
29.2% and 26.9% of his opening-round offence already goes there. Against a taller man, it is how he shrinks the fight.
3
Do not stand and trade early
He has been knocked out twice since 2022 and Nolan has four career knockouts. The volume advantage does not require risk to collect.
4
Bank the third round
His control time peaks at 95 seconds and his accuracy at 39.2% there, against an opponent with no third-round data at all.
5
Use the crowd and the altitude
Forty minutes from Ogden, at an elevation he trains at, against a fighter flying in from New Jersey.
6
Contingency — if Plan A fails
If the takedowns are stuffed, the fallback is volume — three-to-one is enough to win rounds even at 37% accuracy.

Path to Victory

Eric Nolan

Be fresher. Twelve years and three inches against a 41-year-old who has not fought since June 2025.

Why they win

Twelve years younger

28 against 40, in a three-round fight at 4,300 feet.

Three inches of height

6'2" against 5'11", and the frame to keep a shorter wrestler at range if he can use it.

McGee has a fifteen-month layoff

He has not competed since June 14, 2025, and lost that fight.

McGee is 1-4 in his last five

With two knockout losses since 2022 — the chin is a documented problem.

Four career knockouts and three straight CFFC finishes

Against a 41-year-old who has been stopped by strikes twice in four years.

He has never been knocked out

Thirteen professional fights, one stoppage loss, and that a submission.

The gameplan

1
Raise the output above 1.68
Nothing else matters if he lands under two significant strikes a minute. He lost the Hasanov fight for exactly that reason.
2
Sprawl and separate
Getting back to the feet is worth more than winning the scramble — McGee has seven career submissions and Nolan has been tapped once already.
3
Use the three inches
Jab, teep, and make a 5'11" wrestler cover distance. It is his only structural edge and it is a real one.
4
Attack the layoff early
Fifteen months out at forty shows as timing in the first round, not as conditioning in the third.
5
Look for the knockout, not the decision
Four career knockouts against a chin cracked twice since 2022 is a better path than out-pointing a man with eleven decision wins.
6
Contingency — if Plan A fails
If he is taken down twice in the first two rounds, the fight is gone on the cards and he has to chase the finish in the third.

Danger Zone

How Court McGee loses

The layoff shows in the first five minutes, he is a step behind, and a 28-year-old with four knockouts finds the chin that Matt Brown and Jeremiah Wells already cracked.
His 16% takedown accuracy holds true, the wrestling never lands, and a 37%-accuracy striker cannot win rounds on volume alone.
Forty-one years old at 4,300 feet turns his third round — normally his best — into the round he loses.

Danger Zone

How Eric Nolan loses

He is taken down repeatedly against 44% defence and submitted the way Baisangur Susurkaev already submitted him.
He lands 1.68 significant strikes a minute for fifteen minutes and loses three rounds without ever being in trouble.
He gets to a third round he has never fought, against a man with sixty-three scored Octagon rounds and a home crowd.

The widest output gap in this set

Nearly Three to One

Court McGee lands 4.50 significant strikes per minute and Eric Nolan lands 1.68 — the lowest figure of anyone competing at UFC 332. Over fifteen minutes that is roughly forty-two extra strikes, from a man who also stuffs 71% of takedowns against 44% and attempts 1.78 per fifteen minutes against zero.

4.50 v 1.68

significant strikes landed per minute

The control curve that never stops climbing

Ninety-Five Seconds

McGee is the only fighter on this card whose control time rises in every round — 42 seconds in the first, 76 in the second, 95 in the third. Aimed at a 44% takedown defence belonging to a fighter who has already been submitted once in the Octagon, that is the mechanism the whole projection rests on.

42 → 95

McGee control seconds, R1 to R3

Why this is only 55/45

One Win in Five, and Fifteen Months Out

McGee is 1-4 in his last five fights, has been knocked out twice since 2022, is forty-one years old, and has not competed since June 14, 2025. Every one of those facts is real and none of them appears in his rate line. It is the entire reason a nineteen-point technical gap converts to a ten-point model line.

The one intangible worth naming

Fighting an Hour From Home

Court McGee was born and raised in Ogden, Utah, roughly forty minutes north of the Delta Center, and this is the first UFC event in Salt Lake City of his late career. It is not a statistic and it is not modelled, but it is the kind of night a sixteen-year veteran shows up for.

The template already exists

Nolan's Only Stoppage Loss Was a Grappler

Baisangur Susurkaev submitted Eric Nolan in the second round in August 2025 — the only finish against him in thirteen professional fights. He defends 44% of takedowns and attempts none. Court McGee owns seven career submissions and attempts 1.78 takedowns per fifteen minutes.

44%

Nolan's takedown defence

The Five-Round Clock

Court McGee danger windowEric Nolan danger windowNeutral / contested

R1 · 0:00–5:00The volume gap opens

McGee lands 20.0 at 35.9% with 42 seconds of control; Nolan managed 18.0 at 36.7% in his one scored first round. It is the closest frame of the fight on paper — and the round where a fifteen-month layoff is most likely to show.

Critical Insight
A one-directional clock with a rust-shaped hole in the front of it. Every measured column belongs to McGee and each of them grows as the fight goes on — control from 42 to 95 seconds, accuracy from 35.9% to 39.2%, ground share from 2.7% to 17.9% — while Nolan has no third-round data at all and a scored second round that reads 4.0 significant strikes landed before a submission. The only window Nolan owns is the first five minutes, where a fifteen-month layoff at forty is most likely to show and where his four career knockouts have to arrive if they are going to.

Finish Threat by Round

Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.

The Verdict

One hundred simulated fights, the betting market, and our conviction

If you only read 3 things

Court McGee lands 4.50 significant strikes per minute to Eric Nolan's 1.68 — the widest output gap in this analysis set — and his control time rises 42 → 76 → 95 seconds against a 44% takedown defence.

He is also forty-one years old, 1-4 in his last five, knocked out twice since 2022, and has not competed since June 2025.

Model: McGee 55% / Nolan 45%, conviction 3/10 — a nineteen-point technical gap deliberately compressed to ten by age, rust and three inches of height.

100 Simulated Fights

McGee Decision — 34%Nolan Decision — 27%McGee Submission — 13%Nolan KO/TKO — 15%McGee KO/TKO — 8%Nolan Submission — 3%

Each square = 1 simulated fight. Court McGee gold · Eric Nolan orange · full color = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

The output gap

4.50 significant strikes landed per minute against 1.68, the lowest figure at this event, over fifteen minutes.

Wrestling against a 44% sprawl

1.78 takedowns per fifteen minutes against zero, with control time rising to 95 seconds by the third.

Age and layoff

Forty-one years old, 1-4 in his last five, and no competition since June 14, 2025.

Nolan's submission loss

Baisangur Susurkaev tapped him in the second round in August 2025 — the only finish against him, and it was a wrestler.

Twelve years and three inches

The underdog's entire case, and it is the kind of case that beats a forty-year-old more often than the numbers suggest.

Two knockout losses since 2022

McGee's chin is a documented problem and Nolan has four career knockouts from a three-fight CFFC run.

Fight Scripts

of simulations

The Grind Still Works

McGee out-lands him nearly three to one, takes 95 seconds of control in the third, and wins the fight the way he has won eleven others — on volume, position and minutes. Nolan lands 1.68 significant strikes per minute and has no wrestling to change the shape of it.

Scripted outcomes for Court McGee vs Eric Nolan — how each version of this fight unfolds.

Court McGee win probability

34%

13%

KO/TKODECSUB

Five career knockouts and none since 2019. Small, and mostly the branch where a fading younger opponent gets stopped late rather than a clean shot.
The largest bucket on the page and the shape of his career — eleven decision wins, 63 scored UFC rounds, and control time that rises to 95 seconds in the third.
Seven career submissions including a first-round finish of Tim Means in October 2024, aimed at a man submitted by the last wrestler he faced.

Eric Nolan win probability

15%

27%

KO/TKODECSUB

Four career knockouts and three consecutive CFFC finishes before the UFC call, against a 41-year-old stopped by strikes twice since 2022. His clearest path to ending it.
His largest bucket, and it does not require him to be better — it requires McGee to be fifteen months rusty at forty. Three inches of height and twelve years do the rest.
Two career submissions and 0.00 attempts per fifteen minutes. He has been submitted more recently than he has submitted anyone.

Projected Scorecards

How the model scores each round

Eric

Court

29-28 McGee

Nolan takes the first while the rust clears; McGee takes the last two on wrestling

The most likely card, and the shape of his eleven decision wins

30-27 McGee

The takedowns land from the opening bell against 44% defence

Live — it is the widest grappling mismatch on the prelims

29-28 Nolan

Three inches and twelve years outlast a fifteen-month layoff

His realistic path, and it requires him to raise his output above 1.68 a minute

Moneyline

Court McGee

Not posted

Eric Nolan

Not posted

No book has published a line for this bout at the time of writing. Converting our own probabilities gives fair prices of Court McGee -122 from 55% and Eric Nolan +122 from 45% — model outputs, not quotes. Live prices appear in the hero above once a market opens.

Props: model vs market

Prop	Odds	Implied %	Model %	Fair	Edge	Verdict

Best Value
McGee by submission at 13% is the outcome most likely to be mispriced — seven career submissions, a first-round finish of Tim Means in his most recent win, and an opponent who has been tapped once already against 44% takedown defence. The wider read is that this fight goes the distance in 61% of simulations, which is high and reflects two men with a combined striking accuracy of 72%. If the market makes McGee a solid favourite on the wrestling, Nolan at plus money is defensible purely on twelve years and fifteen months of rust.

Conviction

3/10

Every measured column belongs to Court McGee and almost every unmeasured one belongs to Eric Nolan. The output gap is nearly three to one, the takedown-defence gap is twenty-seven points, and Nolan has already been submitted by the last wrestler who fought him. Against that: McGee is forty, 1-4 in his last five, has been knocked out twice since 2022, and has not fought in fifteen months, while Nolan is twelve years younger with three inches of height and four career knockouts. Three out of ten is what a large statistical edge is worth when the statistics are fifteen months old and belong to a forty-year-old. Lean: Court McGee.

What backs the lean

4.50 significant strikes landed per minute against 1.68 — the lowest figure at this event.
Control time rising 42 → 76 → 95 seconds against a 44% takedown defence.
71% takedown defence against 44%, and 1.78 takedown attempts per fifteen against zero.
Seven career submissions against a man submitted by the last wrestler he faced.
Sixty-three scored UFC rounds and eleven decision wins against two scored rounds.
Fighting forty minutes from Ogden, Utah, at an altitude he trains at.

What limits it

Forty-one years old against twenty-eight, in a three-round fight at 4,300 feet.
A fifteen-month layoff — he has not competed since June 14, 2025.
1-4 in his last five, with knockout losses to Matt Brown and Jeremiah Wells since 2022.
Three inches of height to Nolan, and four career knockouts from a three-fight CFFC run.
Neither man is accurate — 37% and 35% — so the volume edge does not convert cleanly.
Nolan has never been knocked out in thirteen professional fights.

Final Assessment

In roughly fifty-five of one hundred simulations Court McGee wins, and in thirty-four of those he wins on the cards. The mechanism is the oldest one in the sport: he lands nearly three times as much as his opponent, he attempts 1.78 takedowns per fifteen minutes against a 44% sprawl, and his control time climbs from 42 seconds to 95 across the fight while his accuracy climbs with it. Thirteen more end with the eighth submission of a sixteen-year career, against a man the last wrestler tapped in two minutes.

In the other forty-five, the fifteen months and the forty-one years arrive on schedule. Eric Nolan is twelve years younger with three inches of height, four career knockouts and a chin that has never been cracked, and Court McGee has been stopped by strikes twice since 2022 and is 1-4 in his last five. Twenty-seven of those simulations are Nolan decisions — he does not need to be better, only fresher — and fifteen are knockouts.

This is a fight where the numbers and the calendar disagree completely. Every measured column at UFC 332 says Court McGee; every column measured in birthdays and idle months says Eric Nolan. On October 3, forty minutes from where McGee grew up, at 4,300 feet — McGee 55% / Nolan 45%, conviction 3/10.

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