Yilizhati Maimaitijiang vs Tre'ston Vines
Middleweight Bout • UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song
Saturday, August 29, 2026 • Shanghai Indoor Stadium, Shanghai
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Yilizhati Maimaitijiang
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Tre'ston Vines
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Yilizhati Maimaitijiang
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-19 | Denis Chernikov | W | TKO (Elbows/Punches) (R1, —) |
| 2025-10-24 | Maksim Lylov | L | Decision (Unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-01-10 | Woo Ram Shim | W | TKO (Elbows/G&P) (R1, 3:59) |
| 2024-10-25 | Vasily Melnikov | W | TKO (Punches) (R1, —) |
| 2024-06-28 | Korogly Kemilev | W | TKO (Corner Stoppage) (R2, 1:59) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Tre'ston Vines
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-04 | Ateba Gautier | L | KO/TKO (Knee/Elbows) (R1, 1:41) |
| 2025-08-30 | Ethan Hughes | W | TKO (Retirement) (R1, —) |
| 2024-09-20 | Robert Hale | W | Submission (RNC) (R2, —) |
| 2024-06-29 | Ratavious Thrasher | W | TKO (Strikes) (R1, —) |
| 2024-03-29 | Chris Mixan | W | Decision (Unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Average of estimated Striking Composite (45 vs 58) and Grappling Composite (67 vs 54) — qualitative analyst estimates, not measured octagon metrics (neither fighter has usable UFC data). The two grade to a dead heat (~56 each): Vines leads on the feet, Maimaitijiang on the mat.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Visual comparison of key performance metrics between both fighters
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Yilizhati Maimaitijiang Key Advantages
This is the fight's biggest single edge. Vines has been finished in all four of his losses — every one of them in Round 1 — while Maimaitijiang has never been stopped and finishes nearly everyone he beats (100% win-finish rate, five of six wins in Round 1). In a bout both records say ends early, the man who cracks and the man who never does are lined up perfectly. It is the engine of the model's lean, tempered only by the fact that Maimaitijiang's own deep-water durability has never actually been tested.
National-level judo (Xinjiang Youth 81kg champion) and multiple Abu Dhabi Jiu-Jitsu Tour titles feed a finishing system built on trips, top control, and ground-and-pound elbows — with two career submissions (guillotine, RNC) on top. Vines's UFC debut ended when his own takedown attempt left his head exposed and he was elbowed out in 1:41. That is the precise sequence a judo/BJJ specialist manufactures on purpose — the underdog's own instinct to shoot feeds the favorite's best finish.
At roughly 22–23 against a 30-year-old carrying late-round-cardio scouting flags, the younger, fresher man owns the recovery and pace edges — and he is likely the bigger body too, a light-heavyweight-sized frame cutting to 185 that brings real strength to the clinch and top position he is chasing. He also walks in without the scar tissue of a first-round UFC knockout. The one asterisk: that same hard cut is a double-edged sword if the fight ever reaches deep water, which is the entire reason the conviction here stays low.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
He shoots or clinches carelessly against a genuine BJJ black belt, gets caught in a scramble or eats a counter knee/uppercut on the entry, and his entirely untested chin meets Golden Gloves power for the first time. One clean shot from Vines erases every grappling advantage — and Maimaitijiang has never once been hit by a UFC-caliber striker, so there is no evidence at all for how he absorbs it.
The early finish never comes, the middleweight cut drains a naturally light-heavyweight-sized frame, and a fresher-than-expected Vines out-works a fading debutant into Rounds 2–3 — a rerun of the Maksim Lylov decision loss, this time against a puncher. Layer in debut nerves that freeze his blitz, and a composed veteran gets the time and space to land clean and steal a fight Maimaitijiang has never won past Round 1.
📋 Likely Gameplan
His entire résumé says the same thing: close the distance, use judo trips and the clinch to put Vines on his back, and finish from top with elbows or a choke. Do not turn it into the kickboxing match that is Vines's one dangerous phase. And do it now — five of six wins are first-round finishes, so the urgency is front-loaded, ideally before debut adrenaline burns off or the weight cut starts to bite.
Against a legitimate BJJ black belt, control position before posturing for the finish — pass and pin, never dive into the scramble that hands Vines a back-take or sweep. Lean the light-heavyweight-sized frame on a smaller man in the clinch, drain him on the fence, and open the takedown. Every second standing is a second closer to the puncher's chance, so deny the clean pocket entirely.
🚀 Tre'ston Vines Key Advantages
Six KO/TKO wins, a Golden Gloves boxing pedigree and Muay Thai make Vines the more credentialed striker on paper — and Maimaitijiang has never once been hit by a UFC-caliber puncher. A debutant's first taste of that power, on the biggest stage of his life, is a genuine equalizer: one clean shot rewrites the entire fight, and it is Vines's most repeatable path to the upset. His KO share (28%) matches Maimaitijiang's for exactly this reason.
Maimaitijiang's clearest edge — the mat — runs straight into a legitimate BJJ black belt with a rear-naked-choke win of his own. Vines can defend the top-control finish, scramble, threaten off his back, and even hunt the choke, turning the projected grappling mismatch into a genuine contest. Layer on his one real asset the debutant lacks — actual octagon experience and a demonstrably higher level of competition faced (LFA, CFFC, the UFC) — and Maimaitijiang's edges shrink.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
The bout follows his career script exactly: Maimaitijiang closes the distance, trips or drags him down, takes the back or mounts, and the elbows or the choke arrive in Round 1 — a fifth straight first-round finish loss. His takedown defense against a decorated judoka has never been tested, and the record is unambiguous: once Vines is hurt, four-for-four in Round 1 says he does not survive it.
He lands power but cannot keep the fight standing; every exchange resets into a clinch and takedown battle he loses, and he is controlled and ground-and-pounded to a one-sided decision he was never in position to win. The size, strength and top pressure of a light-heavyweight-sized grappler simply smother his offense — a one-way grappling clinic with no equalizer available.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Every second on the mat favors Maimaitijiang, so Vines must make it a kickboxing match — stuff the entries, fight off the fence, and let his boxing and Muay Thai lead. And load up early: the debutant's standup and chin are completely untested, so a Golden Gloves right hand on a first-timer's jaw is the fastest route to the upset. Test him immediately, before the grappling ever gets going.
Maimaitijiang's finishing urgency peaks in Round 1 (five of six wins), so Vines's whole night runs through weathering the opening storm. Defend the takedown actively, threaten the choke off his back, and — above all — avoid the head-down, head-exposed shot that Gautier punished in his UFC debut. Survive to Rounds 2–3, where a drained, weight-cut opponent has never won and once lost, and his three decision wins make the deep-water path live.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
⚖️The Data Void (Read This First)
This is one of the least-quantifiable fights on the card, and honesty demands leading with that. Maimaitijiang is a UFC debutant whose entire résumé is one regional Chinese promotion (WLF), a clear tier below the UFC; Vines has exactly one octagon bout, a 1:41 first-round knockout loss. There are no reliable strike-rate, accuracy, defense, takedown or knockdown metrics for either man, and none are invented here — every rate stat on this page is an honest zero, and the "composite" and score figures are explicitly labeled qualitative estimates. What is left is the record, and the record tells a sharp, clean story.
🎯Technical Breakdown
Strip both records to the spine and the tension is stark. Maimaitijiang is 7-1 (about six wins independently corroborated) with a perfect finishing record — every win a stoppage, four by ground-and-pound and two by submission — and he has never been finished. Vines is 10-4 with real one-shot power (six KOs, Golden Gloves hands) and a BJJ black belt, but all four of his losses came by KO/TKO and every single one ended in Round 1. On estimated technique the two grade to a dead heat (~56 each): Vines leads on the feet, Maimaitijiang on the mat. What moves the fight off 50/50 is not skill — it is durability, youth, and stylistic fit.
🧩The Two Numbers That Carry the Fight
With no octagon metrics to lean on, two record-level facts do nearly all the analytical work: Vines has four losses, four KO/TKOs, four in Round 1 — when he loses, it is fast and violent; Maimaitijiang has been finished zero times and closes five of six wins in the opening frame. Line those up and the danger zone is unmistakable — the first round, where one man's greatest strength (grappling control into ground-and-pound) meets the other's greatest weakness (a chin that has failed four straight times). The offsetting unknown is the weight cut: a light-heavyweight-sized frame boiling to 185 could be a monster early or a fading target late, and there is no data to resolve which.
🏁Final Prediction
The most likely single outcome is Maimaitijiang by KO/TKO (28%) — his grappling-to-ground-and-pound stoppage aimed at a fragile chin — trailed by his decision (18%) and submission (12%) paths. But Vines matches that 28% KO/TKO share on genuine one-shot power against an untested debutant, with his own decision (10%) and submission (4%) rounding out a live 42%. Combined finish rate lands near 72%; the decision is the least likely path for either. It is a coin-flip-adjacent fight with a real but low-confidence lean to the younger, never-finished grappler — hence the 3/10 conviction.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
DISCIPLINED PLAY
Model: 40% | Fair: +150
LIVE-DOG LOTTERY
Model: 28% | Fair: +257
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 72% | Fair: -257
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • The durability asymmetry – Vines is 4-for-4 finished in Round 1 in his losses; Maimaitijiang has never been stopped. That gap drives the finish equity.
- • Two live finish roads – Maimaitijiang's grappling-to-ground-and-pound OR Vines's one-shot power; both men carry a real ~28% KO/TKO share.
- • The data void caps everything – zero reliable UFC metrics for either fighter, so keep stakes small; this is a high-variance guess (3/10 conviction), not a read.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Yilizhati Maimaitijiang
Grinds out a decision he has never actually won — suppressed
Ground-and-pound stoppage on a chin that has failed 4 times
Judo/BJJ pedigree — tempered by Vines's black-belt defense
💥Outcome Distribution - Tre'ston Vines
Golden Gloves power on a debutant's untested chin — his best path
Survive early, drag a drained, weight-cut debutant to deep water
Token but real: BJJ black belt, one career RNC, in a scramble
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Tre'ston Vines
- • Keep it standing: Stuff the entries and make it a boxing match — every second on the mat is a loss.
- • Load up early: Test an untested chin; one clean Golden Gloves shot is the fastest route to the upset.
- • Survive R1: Avoid the head-exposed shot Gautier punished, then drag him into deep water.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Yilizhati Maimaitijiang
- • Grapple first: Close distance, trip or drag Vines down, and finish from top — his whole résumé.
- • Attack R1: Five of six wins are first-round finishes; his edge is front-loaded.
- • Ground-and-pound: Elbows and chokes on a chin stopped four straight times in Round 1.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
A genuine but deliberately low lean — the data void caps it hard
✅Supporting Factors
- • Durability asymmetry: never finished vs Vines 4/4 R1 KO'd
- • Grappling pedigree (judo + Abu Dhabi JJ) aimed at his failure mode
- • ~8 years younger and likely the bigger man in the cage
- • Front-loaded finishing urgency: 5 of 6 wins in Round 1
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Zero UFC data: Maimaitijiang debuts, Vines has one 1:41 bout
- • Vines's proven KO power and BJJ black belt keep him live
- • Weight-cut and deep-water durability entirely untested
🏁Executive Summary
This is a coin-flip-adjacent fight, and the honest lean is narrow. Yilizhati Maimaitijiang enters as a UFC debutant whose entire résumé is one regional Chinese promotion a clear tier below the octagon — but the record he brings is spotless where it matters here: he has never been finished and finishes nearly everyone he beats, mostly in Round 1. Tre'ston Vines is the more experienced, more credentialed man, with real one-shot power and a BJJ black belt, yet every one of his four losses is a first-round knockout. The whole fight is that collision — a grappler with a finishing system aimed squarely at a chin that has failed four straight times — and it most likely resolves fast, in the very first round where five of six Maimaitijiang wins and all four Vines losses have lived.
Prediction: Yilizhati Maimaitijiang wins ~58% of simulations — most likely by ground-and-pound KO/TKO (28%), with his decision (18%) and submission (12%) paths behind. Vines's live 42% rests on genuine power against an untested debutant (28% KO/TKO) or dragging a drained, weight-cut newcomer into deep water (10% decision, 4% submission). The lean is real, but the conviction is deliberately low (3/10): Maimaitijiang has zero UFC bouts, his striking and gas tank are unknowns, and Vines's power is exactly the kind of equalizer that makes any confident pick foolish. Small stakes only — this is a lean, not a read.