Amanda Lemos vs Alexia Thainara
Women's Strawweight Bout • UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs. Salkilld
Saturday, August 8, 2026 • Meta APEX, Las Vegas • 25-foot Octagon
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Amanda Lemos
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Alexia Thainara
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Amanda Lemos
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-14 | Gillian Robertson | L | Decision (Unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-09-13 | Tatiana Suarez | L | Decision (Unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-03-08 | Iasmin Lucindo | W | Decision (Unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-08-03 | Virna Jandiroba | L | Submission (R2, 4:48) |
| 2024-02-17 | Mackenzie Dern | W | Decision (Unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Alexia Thainara
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-28 | Bruna Brasil | W | Decision (Unanimous, 30-27) (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-09-27 | Loma Lookboonmee | W | Decision (Unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-03-22 | Molly McCann | W | Submission (RNC) (R1, 4:32) |
| 2024 | Regional Circuit (Brazil) | W | Submission (—, —) |
| 2024 | Regional Circuit (Brazil) | W | Decision (—, —) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (43 vs 53) and Grappling Composite (57 vs 76), computed from division-relative ranks in the 30-fighter Women's Strawweight pool. Thainara's defensive figures are tempered for a ~3-fight UFC sample.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Visual comparison of key performance metrics between both fighters
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Amanda Lemos Key Advantages
Rank 2/30 in knockdown average, 12 career knockdowns, a 6.00:1 knockdown exchange, and 53% of her wins by KO/TKO. Thainara has never shared the cage with anyone who hits like this — her whole career has been spent controlling and submitting people, not eating power. Lemos does not need to win the striking battle on volume; she needs one clean counter as Thainara steps into a takedown entry. Her 64.4% first-round accuracy and 0.36 R1 knockdown average mean the danger peaks exactly when the prospect is at her most aggressive.
Lemos's strength-of-schedule tier is Elite: a five-round title fight with Zhang Weili, wins over Mackenzie Dern, Marina Rodriguez, Michelle Waterson and Angela Hill, and competitive losses only to the very best. Thainara's tier is Strong with zero elite-level fights logged — McCann was a flyweight gatekeeper who retired after their bout, and Loma and Bruna Brasil are honest divisional names nowhere near this altitude. When a prospect's flawless profile meets a veteran who has traded with champions, the veteran's floor is a known, high quantity; the prospect's has simply never been tested.
Lemos does not fade (96% R3/R1 output, "Steady" tier) and owns five-round championship experience — she will be throwing the same clean, hard counters in the last minute of Round 3 that she threw in the first, right into Thainara's documented late-output dip. And she has the proof of concept for turning off a grappler: the Mackenzie Dern win, where she kept a world-class submission ace upright and out-pointed her. Her 64% takedown defense is not elite, but it is functional — if it holds against a prospect's entries the way it held against Dern's, this becomes a striking match Lemos wins comfortably and might end early.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Thainara completes an early takedown, establishes her 202-seconds-per-round control game, and simply repeats the Suarez/Robertson blueprint over three rounds for a clear decision. Lemos's rank-25 volume never gives her the reps to threaten off her back, and her patient, low-output opener (28.6% slow-start) can spot the prospect Round 1 on control before she has thrown anything of consequence. Once Thainara is banking minutes Lemos cannot erase without a finish, the cards read like a lopsided prospect showcase — exactly the fight that has beaten Amandinha twice already.
A first-round scramble hits the mat and Thainara's "Early Hunter" back-take produces the rear-naked choke — the exact way Jéssica Andrade and Virna Jandiroba already found the finish against Lemos. Amandinha has been submitted twice in the Octagon, her chin tier is only "Good," and Thainara hunts the back in Round 1 at a rank-3 submission rate. Any time the fight touches the canvas it is a two-way threat that tilts the prospect's way, and it is the single most dangerous route to a stoppage loss on Lemos's board.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Treat every Thainara level-change as a counter opportunity, not just something to sprawl on. Lemos's rank-2/30 power and 64.4% first-round accuracy mean the moment the prospect ducks in is the moment to land the fight-ending shot — meet the takedown with the uppercut or knee. She must also raise her volume floor: a 2.75 SLpM pace is an engraved invitation for a grappler, and even without becoming a volume fighter she has to throw enough to keep Thainara from walking in freely and to hand the judges clean, hard shots to reward.
Run the Dern blueprint: make Thainara pay to close, use the clinch (79.2% clinch accuracy) to reverse and separate rather than grind, and reset to the range where the power lives. Win the first exchange of every round — Thainara starts fast, so Lemos must land something respected early to make the prospect hesitant about her entries and buy the space her defense needs. Then trust the cardio: if it reaches Round 3 even, Thainara's recorded output dips while Lemos stays "Steady," so she should not chase — let the prospect fade into clean counters down the stretch.
🚀 Alexia Thainara Key Advantages
This is the whole case, and it is a strong one. Lemos has lost three of her last four to grapplers who took her down and controlled her — Suarez, Robertson, and Jandiroba. Thainara is a rank-3 takedown-rate, rank-3 submission-rate, 202-second-control-per-round grappler: not a hypothetical threat to Lemos's game but a near-exact replica of the profile that has been beating her for two years. If a matchmaker were asked to design the opponent Amanda Lemos struggles with most in 2026, the answer would look a great deal like Alexia Thainara.
202 seconds of control per round is a monstrous, round-stealing figure — even without a finish, that is how she shut out Bruna Brasil (30-27 x3) and out-worked Loma, and against Lemos's rock-bottom 47-second control it likely dictates the scorecards. Layered on top is a live, elite submission game: seven career subs, a rank-3 submission rate, and an "Early Hunter" back-take pointed straight at a fighter who has been submitted twice in the UFC. She is also the fresher fighter — nine years younger, unbeaten in the Octagon, and riding momentum against a veteran on a two-fight skid.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Her takedown entries meet a real veteran's defense and power for the first time. Lemos sprawls, or worse, lands the counter as Thainara ducks in — and the "0 knockdowns absorbed" mirage ends with Amandinha standing over her. Even if she wins the standing exchanges on volume for two minutes, one greedy step into the pocket against a rank-2/30 knockdown threat is all it takes; a one-shot finisher needs only a single opening. Nobody in the prospect's career has punched like this, and her chin has never been asked the question.
Lemos keeps it standing the way she kept it standing against Mackenzie Dern. Thainara cannot complete the takedown, her striking (41% accuracy, zero knockdown threat) cannot hurt anyone, and she gets picked apart at range by the superior technician. Compounding it, her recorded Round 3 fade is real rather than a control artifact: the energy cost of hunting takedowns against a defending veteran empties her tank, and a "Steady" Lemos takes over the championship minutes of a close fight — throwing the same clean counters she opened with.
📋 Likely Gameplan
This is the whole fight: change levels early and often. Lemos's 64% takedown defense has cracked three times to exactly this pressure, and volume of entries beats her — one clean takedown per round plus control wins the cards. But she must respect the power absolutely. Every second spent trading in the pocket is a second inside a rank-2/30 knockdown threat, so striking is only a tool to set up the shot, never an end in itself. Grapple, do not brawl; the moment she decides to stand and bang is the moment the whole gameplan can end.
Hunt the back in every scramble — Lemos has been submitted twice, so the choke is the highest-value outcome on the board; when the mat is reached, climb to the back and attack the rear-naked choke that finished Molly McCann. Short of a finish, bank control minutes and let the cards do the work — 202 seconds a round is a decision-winning weapon that turns this into the Suarez/Robertson fight. And manage the tank: the Round 3 output flag is real, so pick the highest-percentage takedown windows rather than chaining desperate shots that let Lemos counter and rest.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🧬The Blueprint Problem
The single most important pattern in this fight is not a stat — it is a trend line. Across her last four losses, Amanda Lemos has been beaten by grapplers who take her down and control her: Tatiana Suarez (dominant decision), Gillian Robertson ("grappled her way to victory"), and Virna Jandiroba (submission). Thainara is, by every rate metric in the database, a purer, more aggressive version of that exact profile — a higher in-fight takedown rate than any of them, elite control time, and a live submission game aimed straight at the choke that has finished Lemos before. Her style has already solved Amanda Lemos three times in two years; the only question is whether she can implement it herself.
🎯Technical Breakdown
This is a rare matchup where the lower-volume fighter is the far more dangerous striker. Lemos throws less (SLpM rank 25 vs 9) but lands cleaner (55% vs 41%) and hits infinitely harder (knockdown rank 2/30 vs 15/30; 12 career knockdowns vs zero). If the fight is contested at range for any meaningful stretch, Lemos wins the striking decisively and carries live one-shot equity every second of it. The counter is that her 45% striking defense (rank 27/30) and 64% takedown defense are an open invitation to a pressure-grappler — and Thainara is a rank-3 takedown-rate, rank-3 submission-rate, elite-control fighter whose entire numerical profile points at that soft spot. Elite grappling metrics against Strong competition, versus Good defensive metrics against Elite competition.
🧩The Master Variable & the Level Problem
The entire fight hinges on one question: can Thainara complete her takedowns against a ranked veteran with real power and a full camp — the way she completed them against regional and gatekeeper opposition — or does Lemos's defense and stopping power make the entries too costly to sustain? Layered over it is the level problem. The grapplers who solved Lemos were elite (Olympic-caliber Suarez, BJJ world champion Jandiroba, a 15-fight veteran in Robertson); Thainara's wins came over Molly McCann, Loma Lookboonmee, and Bruna Brasil. And neither fighter has data on the two great unknowns — Thainara has never been hit by power like this, and Lemos has never solved a grappler this dedicated to control while in visible decline. One mirage breaks first.
🏁Final Prediction
The most likely single outcome is Amanda Lemos by Decision (28%) — her takedown defense holds enough to keep it standing and she out-lands and out-hurts Thainara at range across three rounds, the way she handled Dern. Her KO/TKO path (24%) is the second-largest category and the reason she is favored at all: a rank-2/30 knockdown threat against a chin never tested by power carries ever-present finishing equity, highest in Round 1 and on Thainara's entries. Thainara's upset comes by decision (23%) via the takedown-and-control blueprint, or by submission (17%) — a rank-3 sub rate and early back-take meeting a fighter already submitted twice. Her striking-only KO path is correctly minimal (3%).
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: ~64% | Market implied: 61.5%
GOOD VALUE
Model: 43% | Implied: 44.4%
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 17% | Implied: 18.2%
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Underprices the live dog – Thainara's exact style has beaten Lemos three times in two years; +125 is a sliver of value on a genuine stylistic case.
- • Leans toward a finish – Two control-and- decision styles (four of Lemos's last five reached the cards) push this toward the distance more than a striker line implies.
- • Sample-size mirage – Thainara's flawless 3-fight defensive metrics (100% TDDef, rank-1 defense, 17.33 damage ratio) regress hard against this level of power.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Amanda Lemos
Most likely single outcome — TD defense holds, out-points at range the way she handled Dern
One clean counter on a telegraphed entry; equity peaks in Round 1
Guillotine/armbar equity if Thainara shoots carelessly
💥Outcome Distribution - Alexia Thainara
Her most likely winning route — takedowns + 202-sec control bank the Suarez/Robertson decision
Highest-value path — rank-3 sub rate + early back-take vs a fighter subbed twice before
Correctly minimal — one career KO, 0.00 KD avg, 41% accuracy
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Alexia Thainara
- • Change levels early: 100% of her sub attempts come in Round 1 — shoot from the bell.
- • Bank control: 202 sec/round of top time steals decision rounds outright.
- • Hunt the back: Any scramble to the mat threatens the RNC that finished McCann.
🎯The Favorite's Path - Amanda Lemos
- • Counter the entry: Meet every level change with the uppercut or knee (KD rank 2/30).
- • Keep it standing: The Dern blueprint — make her pay to close, reset to range and power.
- • Late minutes: Stay "Steady" and let the prospect fade into clean R3 counters.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
A deliberate lean, not a confident call — the composites actually favor the prospect
✅Supporting Factors
- • Power the model can't see (KD rank 2/30, 6:1 exchange)
- • Elite strength-of-schedule vs Thainara's Strong tier
- • Sample-size mirage inflates the prospect's 3-fight metrics
- • She can turn off the takedown — she did it to Dern
⚠️Risk Factors
- • The blueprint is real — Lemos lost 3 of 4 to this style
- • The composites favor the prospect (64.8 vs 59.0 overall)
- • Age & decline: 38 on a 2-fight skid vs a fresh 29
- • Submission collision — any scramble can end it
🏁Executive Summary
This is a far closer fight than "ranked veteran vs untested prospect" makes it sound, and the honest numbers actually favor the prospect: on the sample-adjusted composites Thainara grades higher (Overall 64.8 vs 59.0), the Muay Thai vs Muay Thai archetype baseline is a literal 50.0% coin flip, and her exact style — takedowns, 202 seconds of control per round, an early back-take — has beaten Amanda Lemos three times in two years. Our 57–43 lean to Lemos is a deliberate override, grounded in the two things a division-percentile model cannot measure: one-punch power against a chin that has never been tested by it, and the vast gulf between beating gatekeepers and beating a fighter who has spent a decade at championship altitude. Thainara's most frightening figures (100% takedown defense, rank-1 defense, a 17.33 damage ratio) are three-fight artifacts that regress hard — and this is the competition that regresses them.
Prediction: Amanda Lemos by Decision is the single most likely outcome (28%), with her KO/TKO the second-largest path (24%) and the reason she is favored at all; Thainara's live upset comes by decision (23%) on the takedown-and-control blueprint or by submission (17%). The tape says grapplers beat Amanda Lemos, and Thainara is the best pure grappler she has faced who isn't already a champion — but "Amandinha" still carries the one weapon nobody in the prospect's career has survived. It comes down to whether Thainara's three-round magic act meets the shot that ends it, or the takedown that proves it was never magic at all.