Alexander Hernandez vs Rafael dos Anjos – UFC 332: Silva vs. Wang Fight Analytics & Prediction

PRELIM · LIGHTWEIGHT · 3 ROUNDSUFC 332: Silva vs. Wang

Alexander Hernandez

18W9L

Explosive Counter Puncher

…

Rafael dos Anjos

32W17L

Pressure Grappler

…

A former champion, forty-one years old and twenty-three months idle

LightweightDelta Center, Salt Lake City, Utah, United StatesOctober 3, 2026Standard 30ft Octagon · 4,300 ft elevation

The Frame

What this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it

The Analyst's Take

A fight about how much is left, and the answer is unusually well documented on one side. Rafael dos Anjos has 36 scored Octagon bouts and 91 rounds of round-by-round data — the deepest sample in this entire analysis series — and it describes a fighter of real consistency: 15.0, 17.0 and 15.4 significant strikes landed across the rounds, control time of 61, 78 and 79 seconds, accuracy flat at 45-46%, eleven career submissions. None of it is younger than two years old. He last fought on October 26, 2024, when Geoff Neal stopped him in the first round, and he is 1-4 across his previous five with knockout losses to Neal and Rafael Fiziev inside that run. Alexander Hernandez is seven years younger, two inches longer, fought in April 2026, and went 4-0 across late 2024 and 2025 including first- and second-round knockouts of Chase Hooper and Diego Ferreira. His knockdown average of 0.24 in an average first round is the highest either man carries, and his control time climbs to 82 seconds by the third. The one column that runs the other way is grappling: dos Anjos attempts nearly twice the takedowns and owns eleven submissions to two — into a 69% takedown defence, from a man whose own sprawl reads 55%. Model: Hernandez 62% / dos Anjos 38%, conviction 6/10.

Alexander Hernandez

Attribute

Rafael dos Anjos

347 years

Age

5'9" (69")

Height

5'8" (68")

72"+2" Hernandez

Reach

70"

39.5"+1.5" Hernandez

Leg Reach

38"

Explosive counter puncher

Fighting Style

Southpaw pressure grappler

St. Louis, United States

Origin

Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

69%

Takedown Defence

55%

April 25, 2026

Last Fight

October 26, 2024 — two years out

An inch of height, two of reach and two of leg reach to Hernandez, which is a modest edge and a real one against a fighter who has spent most of the last decade at 170 pounds and is now back at 155. Dos Anjos is a southpaw and that remains his structural asymmetry — the open-stance angle that set up eleven career submissions and a title reign. What has changed is that he now has to close distance against a longer man with a 0.24 first-round knockdown average rather than against welterweights who came to him.

Venue Factor
The Delta Center's 4,300 feet is the least of dos Anjos's problems and still not nothing: a 41-year-old returning from twenty-three months away, in the thinnest air on the calendar, against a man who fought five months ago. Hernandez's control time peaks at 82 seconds in the third round, which is exactly where altitude and inactivity compound.

The Fighters

Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage

Alexander Hernandez

Pro Record

18-9-0

UFC Record

10-8 across 17 scored Octagon bouts

Streak

Coming off a decision loss to Rafa García

Finish Rate

56% (10 of 18 wins) — 8 KO/TKO, 2 submissions, 8 decisions

Avg Fight Time

10:22 in the UFC

Chin · SolidSOS · Deep lightweight scheduleExplosive counter puncher

Seven years and seventeen scored Octagon bouts into a career that finally found a stable version of itself in 2025. Hernandez went 4-0 across late 2024 and 2025 — a split decision over Austin Hubbard, a unanimous decision over Kurt Holobaugh, then a first-round knockout of Chase Hooper at UFC 319 and a second-round knockout of Diego Ferreira on the Noche UFC card — before dropping a decision to Rafa García in April 2026. His round profile is the most stable in this bout: 19.7, 19.0 and 19.6 significant strikes landed with control time climbing from 22 seconds to 82 by the third. The knockdown average of 0.24 in an average first round is the highest either man carries, and 31-36% of his offence goes to the body in every frame.

Rafael dos Anjos

Pro Record

32-17-0

UFC Record

21-15 across 36 scored Octagon bouts

Streak

One win in his last five, and two years inactive

Finish Rate

50% (16 of 32 wins) — 5 KO/TKO, 11 submissions, 16 decisions

Avg Fight Time

14:32 in the UFC

Chin · Worn — five career knockout lossesSOS · Elite — a former UFC Lightweight ChampionPressure grappler

One of the great two-division campaigners of the modern era, and the numbers now describe a fighter at the end of it. Dos Anjos won the lightweight title in 2015, ran a decade-long welterweight campaign, and has since gone 1-4: a knockout loss to Rafael Fiziev, a submission win over Bryan Barberena, a five-round decision loss to Vicente Luque, a decision loss to Mateusz Gamrot, and a first-round TKO loss to Geoff Neal on October 26, 2024 — his last appearance, nearly two years before this fight. What has not eroded is the shape of his game: 36 scored Octagon bouts of round-by-round data showing 61, 78 and 79 seconds of control per round and a ground share climbing from 15.7% to 20.7%. He remains the most complete grappler in this bout by a distance, with eleven career submissions.

Alexander Hernandez

0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Knockdown Exchange

KD dealt vs absorbed

Rafael dos Anjos

0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Alexander Hernandezsignature weapons

The Opening-Round Right HandA knockdown average of 0.24 in an average first round — the highest either man carries — behind eight career knockouts including Chase Hooper and Diego Ferreira in 2025

×8

Body Investment31.3%, 30.0% and 36.3% of his landed strikes go to the body across the three rounds, the most consistent body attack on this card

×18

Rafael dos Anjossignature weapons

The Southpaw Chain Wrestle1.95 takedowns per fifteen minutes with control time of 61, 78 and 79 seconds a round, feeding eleven career submissions

×11

Championship Distance14:32 of average UFC fight time across 36 scored bouts, including five-round fights against Vicente Luque and Rafael Fiziev

×32

Alexander Hernandez

Rafa García

Decision — Unanimous

RR3

UFC FN: Sterling vs. Zalal — Apr 25, 2026

Diego Ferreira

KO/TKO

RR2 (3:46)

Noche UFC: Lopes vs. Silva — Sep 13, 2025

Chase Hooper

KO/TKO

RR1 (4:58)

UFC 319 — Aug 16, 2025

Kurt Holobaugh

Decision — Unanimous

RR3

UFC FN: Vettori vs. Dolidze 2 — Mar 15, 2025

Austin Hubbard

Decision — Split

RR3

UFC 307 — Oct 5, 2024

Pattern

Four straight wins and then a loss, and the four are the story: split and unanimous decisions over Austin Hubbard and Kurt Holobaugh, then knockouts of Chase Hooper and Diego Ferreira within a month of each other in 2025. The Rafa García decision loss in April 2026 was to a durable, high-volume wrestler — a different problem from the one in front of him.

Rafael dos Anjos

Geoff Neal

TKO — knee injury

RR1 (1:30)

UFC 308 — Oct 26, 2024

Mateusz Gamrot

Decision — Unanimous

RR3

UFC 299 — Mar 9, 2024

Vicente Luque

Decision — Unanimous

RR5

UFC on ESPN — Aug 12, 2023

Bryan Barberena

Submission — Neck Crank

RR2 (3:20)

UFC on ESPN 42 — Dec 3, 2022

Rafael Fiziev

KO (punches)

RR5 (0:18)

UFC on ESPN — Jul 9, 2022

Pattern

One win in five, and the losses are not soft: Rafael Fiziev by fifth-round knockout, Vicente Luque over five rounds, Mateusz Gamrot on the cards, Geoff Neal by first-round TKO. Every one of those men was a top-fifteen fighter at the time. The Barberena submission in December 2022 is the last time he won, and it was nearly four years before this fight.

Alexander Hernandez

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Rafael dos Anjos

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Critical Insight
Two charts that split almost perfectly along the line the fight will be decided on. Half of everything dos Anjos has won came on the scorecards and a third by submission — sixteen decisions and eleven taps in thirty-two wins, with only five knockouts. Hernandez is the opposite kind of fighter: eight knockouts and eight decisions in eighteen wins, with two submissions. The round columns reinforce it. Dos Anjos has sixteen decision wins and has been to a fourth round; Hernandez has one win past the second round in his entire career. One man wins fights by accumulating minutes and the other by ending them.

Common Opponents

Opponent	Alexander	Rafael
Rafa García (level proxy)	L· Unanimous decision (Apr 2026)	—never faced
García fights Rongzhu on the September Noche UFC card; the loss is the only blemish on Hernandez's last five
Mateusz Gamrot and Vicente Luque (level proxies)	—has not faced a top-ten lightweight recently	L· decision to both, in 2023 and 2024
The two results that mark the decline: competitive, but clearly out-pointed by fighters a tier above his current level
Diego Ferreira (level proxy)	W· KO/TKO R2 (Sep 2025)	—never faced
Hernandez's most recent finish, over a long-tenured Brazilian veteran of similar vintage to dos Anjos

The Numbers

Composites, division ranks and round-by-round evidence

Striking

SLpM 25% · StrAcc 30% · StrDef 30% · SApM 15%

Alexander

Rafael

Two points to the veteran, and they come from accuracy and damage: dos Anjos lands at 47% to Hernandez's 40% and absorbs 3.23 significant strikes per minute to 4.45. Hernandez lands more — 4.23 to 3.48 — and both defend at exactly 60%. The gap the gauge cannot show is that dos Anjos's line spans a decade at welterweight while Hernandez's most recent striking evidence is two knockouts in 2025.

Grappling

TD/15 25% · TDAcc 25% · TDDef 30% · Sub/15 20%

Alexander

Rafael

Dos Anjos's column and the reason this is not a wider line. He attempts 1.95 takedowns per fifteen minutes at 24% accuracy against 1.05 at 11%, and owns eleven career submissions at 0.57 attempts per fifteen against two and 0.08. The offsetting number is defensive: his 55% takedown defence is the worst in this bout and fourteen points below Hernandez's 69%.

Technical

(Striking + Grappling) / 2

0.0

Alexander

0.0

Rafael

Five points to dos Anjos on pure skill, which is fair — he is a former champion and the better technician. The model favours Hernandez by twenty-four because the fight is not being contested in 2018.

Cardio

Fight time · rounds contested · layoff · age

Alexander

Rafaelsmall sample

The widest gap on the page and the one that decides the projection. Dos Anjos's 14:32 average fight time and 91 scored rounds are genuinely elite — and he is 41, has not competed since October 26, 2024, and is 1-4 in his last five with two stoppage losses in that stretch. Hernandez is 33, fought in April 2026, and holds output at 19.7, 19.0 and 19.6 across three rounds with control time climbing to 82 seconds.

Overall

(Technical + Cardio) / 2

0.0

Alexander

0.0

Rafael

Six and a half points against a model line of twenty-four. The composites reward a career; the projection prices a two-year layoff at forty-one, and the gap between those two things is the whole page.

Metric	Alexander	Rafael
Avg Fight TimeAvg Fight TimeAverage fight duration — long averages mark proven cardio and decision-ready grinders.	10:22 (UFC)	14:32 (UFC)
Pace Tier	4.23 SLpM at 40% accuracy	3.48 SLpM at 47% accuracy
Control Time Curve	22 → 33 → 82 seconds	61 → 78 → 79 seconds
Takedown Defence	69%	55%
Layoff	5 months	23 months

Archetype Base Rate

Explosive Counter Puncher 62%38% Pressure Grappler

No archetype base-rate row exists for this pairing · No historical archetype rate is applied. The 62/38 is built on seven years of age, twenty-three months of inactivity, a 4-1 recent record against 1-4, two inches of reach and a 0.24 first-round knockdown average aimed at a fighter with five career knockout losses whose last appearance ended in a first-round stoppage. It is capped by eleven career submissions, 1.95 takedowns per fifteen minutes, 91 scored rounds of elite consistency, and the plain fact that a former champion's floor is higher than most fighters' ceiling.

Alexander HernandezRafael dos Anjos

Lightweight

· 52 fighters

Stat	Alexander	Alexander rank	Div avg	Rafael rank	Rafael
SLpMSLpMSignificant Strikes Landed per Minute — offensive striking volume. Higher = busier striker.	4.23	—	~4.21	—	3.48
Str AccStr AccStriking Accuracy — share of significant strikes thrown that land. Higher = more precise.	40%	—	~45%	—	47%
Str DefStr DefStriking Defense — share of opponents' significant strikes that do NOT land. Higher = harder to hit.	60%	—	~57%	—	60%
SApMSApMSignificant Strikes Absorbed per Minute — how much a fighter gets hit. Lower = better.	4.45	—	~4.02	—	3.23
TD/15TD/15Takedowns Landed per 15 minutes — wrestling pressure / takedown engine.	1.05	—	~1.71	—	1.95
TD Acc	11%	—	~38%	—	24%
TD DefTD DefTakedown Defense — share of opponents' takedown attempts stuffed.	69%	—	~64%	—	55%
Sub/15Sub/15Submission Attempts per 15 minutes — how actively a fighter hunts the finish on the mat.	0.08 (2 career subs)	—	~0.49	—	0.57 (11 career subs)
Scored UFC Rounds	38	—	—	—	91
Age	33	—	—	—	41
Last Five	4-1	—	—	—	1-4

Statistical Verdict
Hernandez sits at the lightweight baseline on output and five points under it on accuracy, above it on takedown defence and worse than it on damage absorbed. Dos Anjos is above baseline on accuracy, takedown volume, submission threat and damage taken, and nine points below it on takedown defence — the row that undercuts his own gameplan. The three rows at the bottom are the fight: ninety-one scored rounds against thirty-eight, forty-one years old against thirty-four, and 1-4 against 4-1. One of these fighters has more evidence behind him than anyone in this series and none of it is recent.

Significant Strikes Landed per Round

Control Time per Round (sec)

Alexander Hernandez

The most stable output line in this bout: 19.7, 19.0 and 19.6 significant strikes landed, with accuracy flat between 39.8% and 41.9%.
Control time climbs sharply in the third — 22, 33, then 82 seconds — with ground share rising from 3.9% to 17.2%. He becomes a grappler late, which is unusual for a counter puncher.
A committed body attacker: 31.3%, 30.0% and 36.3% of landed strikes to the body across the three rounds, the highest body share on this card.
His knockdown average of 0.24 in the opening round is the highest single knockdown figure in this bout, across seventeen scored first rounds.

Rafael dos Anjos

Ninety-one scored rounds — the deepest round-by-round sample of any fighter in this analysis series — showing near-perfect consistency: 15.0, 17.0, 15.4 landed at 46.2%, 46.1%, 45.1%.
Control time of 61, 78 and 79 seconds a round, with ground share climbing from 15.7% to 20.7%. This is what a career built on eleven submissions looks like in aggregate.
His clinch share is the highest in this bout at 20.2% in the opening round, falling to 14.7% by the third — the southpaw entry that fed the title reign.
None of this data postdates October 26, 2024. It is a complete picture of a fighter who has not competed in twenty-three months and is now 41.

Critical Insight
The most complete round table in this series against one of the more ordinary ones, and the ordinary one belongs to the favourite. Dos Anjos is measurably better at almost everything the tables record — more accurate, more controlling, more efficient — and every row of it is at least two years old. Hernandez's contribution is stability plus one number: a 0.24 knockdown average in the opening round, the highest either man carries, aimed at a fighter whose most recent appearance ended inside one. The projection is not a claim that Hernandez is the better fighter. It is a claim about what twenty-three months and seven years do to the fighter who is.

Strike Targeting (career avg)

Head hunting vs body work vs leg attack — the shape of the damage.

Range Profile — where the minutes go

AlexanderRafael

83%Distance66%

7%Clinch17%

10%Ground17%

Share of significant-strike volume by range from UFC career data. Debutants / fighters without Octagon samples show as N/A.

The Story of the Fight

Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath

Where the fight lives

Who owns each phase — and by how much

Open SpaceAlexander owns it

Two inches of reach, higher output, and a 0.24 first-round knockdown average against a man knocked out five times in his career

Pocket / ExchangesAlexander owns it

Eight career knockouts against five, and two 2025 stoppages against a fighter last seen being stopped in a first round

ClinchRafael owns it

Dos Anjos holds 61-79 seconds of control every round; Hernandez climbs to 82 only by the third

GroundRafael owns it

Eleven career submissions and 0.57 attempts per fifteen against two and 0.08 — but into 69% takedown defence

Path to Victory

Alexander Hernandez

Make him fight at 41 after two years off. The right hand is the shortcut; the volume is the plan.

Why they win

Seven years younger

33 against 41, in a three-round fight at 4,300 feet against a man returning from twenty-three months away.

A 0.24 first-round knockdown average

The highest figure either man carries, aimed at a fighter with five career knockout losses.

4-1 in his last five

Including first- and second-round knockouts of Chase Hooper and Diego Ferreira in 2025, against a 1-4.

69% takedown defence against 55%

A fourteen-point gap that directly blunts the only phase dos Anjos leads.

Two inches of reach and two of leg reach

Modest, but he is the longer man against a returning welterweight.

Control time climbing to 82 seconds

His highest frame arrives in the third — exactly where age, altitude and inactivity compound.

The gameplan

1
Attack early, before the rust clears
His knockdown average peaks at 0.24 in the opening round and dos Anjos has five career knockout losses. The first five minutes are the cheapest he will ever get.
2
Keep it at two inches
Reach and leg reach both belong to him, against a southpaw who has to close to start his own fight.
3
Invest in the body
31-36% of his offence already goes there, and it is the fastest way to tax a 41-year-old at 4,300 feet.
4
Defend the entry, not the takedown
At 24% career accuracy dos Anjos does not land clean shots — he chains them. Framing early is worth more than sprawling late.
5
Take the third on control
His own control time jumps to 82 seconds there. Against a returning veteran, that is the round to make loudest.
6
Contingency — if Plan A fails
If he is taken down in the first two rounds, the priority is standing up rather than scrambling — eleven career submissions is not a number to gamble against.

Path to Victory

Rafael dos Anjos

Get it to the mat. Eleven career submissions against two, and nothing about that skill expires.

Why they win

Eleven career submissions against two

And 0.57 submission attempts per fifteen minutes against 0.08. The most dangerous single skill in the cage.

Ninety-one scored rounds of elite consistency

15.0, 17.0, 15.4 landed at 45-46% accuracy with 61-79 seconds of control every frame.

Seven points of accuracy and 1.22 fewer strikes absorbed

47% against 40%, and 3.23 per minute against 4.45.

1.95 takedowns per fifteen minutes at 24% accuracy

Nearly double Hernandez's volume and more than double his conversion rate.

14:32 of average fight time

The second-longest on this card, with five-round experience against Luque and Fiziev.

A former champion's floor

Wins over Anthony Pettis, Donald Cerrone and Robbie Lawler. Nothing on Hernandez's record approaches that tier.

The gameplan

1
Get to the clinch immediately
His clinch share peaks at 20.2% in the opening round and his control at 61 seconds. Every second spent at range is a second spent losing to a longer, younger man.
2
Chain the takedowns, do not shoot them
24% career accuracy against 69% defence says the single entry is not there; the fence and the trip are.
3
Hunt the neck, not the position
Eleven career submissions is the one thing in this fight that does not decay with age or inactivity.
4
Use the southpaw angle
It set up a title reign and it is still the only geometric asymmetry he owns against a longer opponent.
5
Fight in the second round
His control peaks at 78 seconds and his output at 17.0 there — it is his best frame across twenty-nine scored samples.
6
Contingency — if Plan A fails
If the takedowns are not landing by the second, he cannot win a striking match at 41 after two years out. That is the branch where he has to accept risk and pressure into the clinch regardless.

Danger Zone

How Alexander Hernandez loses

He is taken down twice and meets eleven career submissions from a southpaw who has been finishing people this way for eighteen years.
His 40% accuracy and 4.45 strikes absorbed per minute lose three close rounds to a more efficient fighter who simply out-lands him cleanly.
He fights the name rather than the man, waits for a decline that does not show up, and gives away the first two rounds on control time.

Danger Zone

How Rafael dos Anjos loses

Twenty-three months and forty-one years arrive together in the first five minutes, against a 0.24 knockdown average.
His 55% takedown defence — the worst number on his sheet — lets a counter puncher control the third round with 82 seconds of top position.
He cannot land the entries at 24% career accuracy against 69% defence, and a fight built on grappling never gets to the grappling.

The number that sets the price

Twenty-Three Months

Rafael dos Anjos last competed on October 26, 2024, when Geoff Neal stopped him in the first round at UFC 308. He turns up in Salt Lake City at 41 years old after nearly two years away, having gone 1-4 across his previous five fights with knockout losses to Neal and Rafael Fiziev inside that stretch.

23 months

since his last fight

The deepest sample in this series

Ninety-One Scored Rounds

Dos Anjos has 36 scored Octagon bouts and 91 rounds of round-by-round data — more than any other fighter across UFC 332 and UFC Vegas 122 combined with their opponents. It shows a fighter of remarkable consistency: 15.0, 17.0 and 15.4 significant strikes landed, control time at 61, 78 and 79 seconds, accuracy flat at 45-46%. None of it is younger than two years old.

scored UFC rounds

Where the grappler is vulnerable

The Takedown Defence Inversion

Dos Anjos is the better wrestler by every offensive measure — 1.95 takedowns per fifteen minutes at 24% accuracy, eleven career submissions — and he defends only 55% of takedowns, fourteen points below Hernandez's 69% and nine below the lightweight baseline. In a fight he will want on the mat, he is also the easier man to put there.

55% v 69%

takedown defence

The form argument

Hernandez Found Something in 2025

Four straight wins across late 2024 and 2025, including a first-round knockout of Chase Hooper at UFC 319 and a second-round knockout of Diego Ferreira on Noche UFC. He then lost a decision to Rafa García in April 2026. That is 4-1 against a 1-4, and it is the cleanest recent-form gap on this card.

4-1 v 1-4

last five fights

The honest caveat

Both Men Absorb More Than They Should

Hernandez absorbs 4.45 significant strikes per minute against a ~4.02 lightweight baseline, and his accuracy of 40% is five points under it. He is not an efficient fighter and he lost his most recent bout. This is a projection about who has more left, not about who is better.

The Five-Round Clock

Alexander Hernandez danger windowRafael dos Anjos danger windowNeutral / contested

R1 · 0:00–5:00The knockdown window

Hernandez carries a 0.24 knockdown average here — the highest figure either man owns — and he stopped Chase Hooper at 4:58 of a first round in August 2025. Dos Anjos answers with 61 seconds of control and a 0.14 knockdown average of his own; his most recent fight also ended in a first round, on the wrong side of it.

Critical Insight
A clock with a hole in the middle of it. Hernandez owns the first round on power — a 0.24 knockdown average, the highest either man carries, against a fighter whose last appearance ended inside one — and owns the third on control, with 82 seconds against 79 and eight fewer years. Dos Anjos owns the second outright: 78 seconds of control and 17.0 landed, his best frame across twenty-nine scored samples. Everything about the projection reduces to whether a 41-year-old returning from twenty-three months away can turn one good round into two, and no data anywhere addresses that question.

Finish Threat by Round

Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.

The Verdict

One hundred simulated fights, the betting market, and our conviction

If you only read 3 things

Rafael dos Anjos has 91 scored UFC rounds — the deepest sample in this analysis series — and none of it postdates October 2024. He is 41 and 1-4 in his last five.

Alexander Hernandez is seven years younger, 4-1 in his last five with two 2025 knockouts, and carries a 0.24 first-round knockdown average against a man with five career knockout losses.

Model: Hernandez 62% / dos Anjos 38%, conviction 6/10 — capped by eleven career submissions and a former champion's floor.

100 Simulated Fights

Hernandez Decision — 31%Hernandez KO/TKO — 28%dos Anjos Decision — 21%dos Anjos Submission — 11%Hernandez Submission — 3%dos Anjos KO/TKO — 6%

Each square = 1 simulated fight. Alexander Hernandez gold · Rafael dos Anjos orange · full color = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

Twenty-three months of inactivity

Dos Anjos last competed on October 26, 2024, and was stopped in the first round of it.

Seven years of age

41 against 33, in the thinnest air on the calendar, in a three-round fight.

Recent form

4-1 with two knockouts in 2025 against 1-4 with two stoppage losses.

The knockdown average

Hernandez carries 0.24 in an average first round — the highest figure in this bout — against five career knockout losses.

Eleven submissions against two

The underdog's genuine equaliser, and the reason this is not wider — nothing about that skill expires.

The takedown-defence inversion

Dos Anjos wants the mat and defends only 55% himself, fourteen points below Hernandez's 69%.

Fight Scripts

of simulations

The Younger Man Out-Works Him

Hernandez lands 19-plus a round in every frame, takes 82 seconds of control in the third, and out-points a 41-year-old who has not fought since October 2024. Seven years and 23 months of inactivity is the whole mechanism, and it does not require anything spectacular.

Scripted outcomes for Alexander Hernandez vs Rafael dos Anjos — how each version of this fight unfolds.

Alexander Hernandez win probability

28%

31%

KO/TKODECSUB

Eight career knockouts including two in 2025, a 0.24 first-round knockdown average, and an opponent with five career knockout losses whose last fight ended in a first-round stoppage. The largest finishing bucket in the bout.
The largest bucket overall. Nineteen-plus significant strikes landed in every round, control time climbing to 82 seconds, and seven years on a man who has not competed in nearly two.
Two career submissions and 0.08 attempts per fifteen minutes. Near-zero, and it would take a scramble he does not seek against the best grappler in the cage.

Rafael dos Anjos win probability

21%

11%

KO/TKODECSUB

Five career knockouts in thirty-two wins and a 0.14 first-round knockdown average. He has never been a finisher by strike and is not going to start at 41.
His largest bucket and the shape of sixteen career decision wins — 14:32 of average fight time, 91 scored rounds, control time at 61-79 seconds a frame. It requires the wrestling to work.
Eleven career submissions and 0.57 attempts per fifteen minutes, the best grappling threat in this bout by a distance — running into 69% takedown defence and 24% career takedown accuracy.

Projected Scorecards

How the model scores each round

Alexander

Rafael

Alexander

29-28 Hernandez

Dos Anjos takes the second on control; Hernandez takes the outside rounds on volume and power

The most likely card in a fight that reaches them

30-27 Hernandez

The layoff never clears and the younger man wins every frame

Live — 23 months out at 41 is a large unpriced risk

29-28 dos Anjos

Control time in two rounds outweighs volume in one

His path, and it depends entirely on the takedowns landing

Moneyline

Alexander Hernandez

Not posted

Rafael dos Anjos

Not posted

No book has published a line for this bout at the time of writing. Converting our own probabilities gives fair prices of Alexander Hernandez -163 from 62% and Rafael dos Anjos +163 from 38% — model outputs, not quotes. Live prices appear in the hero above once a market opens.

Props: model vs market

Prop	Odds	Implied %	Model %	Fair	Edge	Verdict

Best Value
Hernandez inside the distance at 31% is the honest expression of this projection: eight career knockouts, a 0.24 first-round knockdown average, and an opponent with five career knockout losses who was stopped in the first round of his last appearance twenty-three months ago. On the other side, dos Anjos by submission at 11% is the correct dog ticket — eleven career submissions do not expire, and the market will be pricing a name rather than a layoff.

Conviction

6/10

A clear lean built almost entirely on time rather than on talent. Dos Anjos is the better technician on every measured column except takedown defence, and he has 91 scored rounds of data to prove it — all of it at least two years old, produced by a fighter who is now 41 and has gone 1-4 with two stoppage losses. Hernandez is seven years younger, longer, fought five months ago, and carries the highest knockdown average in the bout into a chin that has been cracked five times. The cap is eleven career submissions and the plain fact that a former champion's worst night still beats most fighters' best. Lean: Alexander Hernandez.

What backs the lean

Seven years younger and twenty-three months fresher — dos Anjos last fought in October 2024.
4-1 in his last five with knockouts of Chase Hooper and Diego Ferreira in 2025, against a 1-4.
A 0.24 first-round knockdown average against a man with five career knockout losses.
69% takedown defence against 55%, blunting the only phase the veteran leads.
Two inches of reach and two of leg reach.
Control time climbing to 82 seconds in the third, where age and altitude compound.

What limits it

Eleven career submissions and 0.57 attempts per fifteen minutes against two and 0.08.
Ninety-one scored rounds of near-perfect consistency — the deepest sample in this series.
Seven points of accuracy and 1.22 fewer significant strikes absorbed per minute.
1.95 takedowns per fifteen at 24% accuracy against 1.05 at 11%.
A former UFC Lightweight Champion with wins over Pettis, Cerrone and Lawler.
Hernandez's own 40% accuracy and 4.45 strikes absorbed per minute are both worse than the divisional baseline.

Final Assessment

In roughly sixty-two of one hundred simulations Alexander Hernandez wins, and the two paths are nearly even. In thirty-one he simply out-works a 41-year-old returning from twenty-three months away — 19-plus significant strikes landed in every round, control time climbing to 82 seconds by the third, at 4,300 feet. In twenty-eight he finds the right hand: a 0.24 first-round knockdown average, eight career knockouts including two in 2025, against a fighter with five career knockout losses whose last appearance ended inside a first round.

In the other thirty-eight, the former champion's floor holds. Rafael dos Anjos has 91 scored Octagon rounds showing 61 to 79 seconds of control every frame, eleven career submissions, and seven points more accuracy while absorbing 1.22 fewer strikes a minute. Twenty-one of those simulations are decisions built on that control time and eleven end with the twelfth submission of an eighteen-year career.

This is not a projection about who is better — dos Anjos leads the technical composite and has the deepest round-by-round sample in this entire series. It is a projection about twenty-three months and seven years, and about a takedown defence of 55% in a fight the veteran needs to spend on the mat. On October 3 in Salt Lake City — Hernandez 62% / dos Anjos 38%, conviction 6/10.

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