Reinier de Ridder vs Roman Dolidze
Middleweight Bout • UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues
Saturday, August 22, 2026 • Golden 1 Center, Sacramento
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Reinier de Ridder
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Roman Dolidze
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Reinier de Ridder
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-07 | Caio Borralho | L | Decision (Unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-10-18 | Brendan Allen | L | TKO (Corner Stoppage) (R4, 5:00) |
| 2025-07-26 | Robert Whittaker | W | Decision (Split) (R5, 5:00) |
| 2025-01-18 | Kevin Holland | W | Submission (Guillotine) (R1, 3:31) |
| 2024-12-07 | Bo Nickal | W | KO/TKO (Ground Strikes) (R2, 1:53) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Roman Dolidze
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | Christian Leroy Duncan | L | Decision (Unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-10-25 | Anthony Hernandez | L | Submission (R4, 2:45) |
| 2025-04-12 | Marvin Vettori | W | Decision (Unanimous) (R5, 5:00) |
| 2024-10-05 | Kevin Holland | W | KO/TKO (R1, 5:00) |
| 2024-06-29 | Anthony Smith | W | Decision (Unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (48.7 vs 22.7) and Grappling Composite (71.5 vs 36.8). Balances overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills. de Ridder's edge is concentrated in exactly the phase — grappling — where Dolidze is most exposed.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Visual comparison of key performance metrics between both fighters
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Reinier de Ridder Key Advantages
TD/15 of 4.74 (rank 6/46, +146% vs the MW average) against Dolidze's 26% takedown defense is the mechanical core of this matchup — a textbook exploitation pairing. de Ridder lands roughly one takedown per round even against good defensive wrestlers; against the division's leakiest, the completion math is overwhelming. His 123-second R1 control average is not situational — it is what he does to everyone. He does not need a perfect entry, only volume of attempts, and a 26% defense stopped on barely one in four will not hold across three rounds.
Anthony Hernandez took Dolidze down and submitted him in the fourth round — and the co-main is happening on a card Hernandez headlines. de Ridder is a more decorated grappler than Hernandez: a former ONE two-division champion with 13 career submissions and a deep triangle/armbar/back-take arsenal, plus two extra inches of reach to finish with. The single most predictive data point in this analysis is that Dolidze's most recent stoppage loss is a live, recent demonstration of exactly what de Ridder does best — against a lesser version of the same problem.
At 6'4" with a 78" reach against 6'2"/76", de Ridder owns the frame for the first time in his recent stretch — the jab, the distance management, and the long limbs that make his submissions inescapable. His finishing window (avg fight time 7:23) covers the entire 3-round distance, and his submission-attempt rate actually rises into the third (0.67, "Late Round Sub Artist"). Crucially, the format neutralizes his one big liability: his documented fade (R3 output 41% of R1) and his lone deep-water stoppage (Allen, R4) are five-round problems that fall largely out of frame over three.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
The level change into the pocket meets a Dolidze uppercut or overhand — de Ridder's 44% striking defense (rank 40/46) catches a clean one from a man with 8 career knockdowns and a front-loaded R1 power window (KD avg 0.31). His chin is the wrong kind of "Iron": he has been finished by strikes three times (twice by Malykhin, once by Allen), so one heavy shot in an early exchange — exactly as he closes distance for a takedown — inverts the entire model. It is the single variable the grappling read cannot neutralize.
Dolidze's R1 leg kicks (33.3% investment) compromise the base, the double-legs stop landing, and the fight is dragged into a standing striking match — precisely the Borralho template that produced a 30-27 shutout in de Ridder's last outing. His striking defense and low volume lose rounds at range. And if he banks early control but can't finish, his R3 output collapse (6.3 sig average) lets Dolidze's steady motor and championship cardio steal the third and, in a close fight, the cards.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Establish the jab behind the two-inch reach edge to control distance without standing in the pocket where Dolidze's power lives — then feint the level change to freeze him and convert to the real entry. The takedown is not optional; it is the whole plan. The one thing de Ridder must NOT do is accept a low-tempo standing war at range on Dolidze's terms, the Borralho warning where his poor striking defense and low volume quietly lose rounds.
Attack the body and enter the clinch (R2 clinch% 27.8%), using 83.9% clinch accuracy and the body-lock game to walk Dolidze to the fence and initiate takedowns from a position he cannot defend at 26%. Bank control (123-second R1 average is the blueprint), avoid the scramble, and work the triangle and armbar against a grappler who was just tapped by a lesser one. Then close before R3: his finishing window is rounds 1–2, and urgency is a feature — not a risk — at this distance.
🚀 Roman Dolidze Key Advantages
Dolidze's R1 knockdown average (0.31), his 8 career knockdowns, and his 53% KO/TKO win rate are the cleanest path to an upset — and they point at a genuine target. de Ridder's striking defense is 44% (rank 40/46) and he has been finished by strikes three times. Dolidze does not need to win the fight; he needs one clean, heavy shot in an early exchange while de Ridder is closing distance for a takedown. That is his most repeatable winning sequence, and it is the one dimension the analytics simply cannot see.
This is the one category that runs against the favorite: Dolidze maintains output into the deepest water (champ_output 113%, R5 his highest-volume round at 22.5 sig) while de Ridder fades hard (R3 output 41% of R1). He is also a career-long, powerfully built middleweight who has only ever been finished once, and his 33.3% R1 leg-kick game is takedown insurance — chop the base and the double-legs get expensive. If Dolidze survives the early grappling storm and forces a competitive, scrambly fight, the conditioning delta is entirely his, and de Ridder has shown he can be broken late.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
His 26% takedown defense simply cannot handle 4.74 attempts per fifteen minutes; he spends the fight on his back and the Hernandez loss repeats — this time against a better grappler in a shorter fight, meaning the finish comes even faster. If his 37.5% slow start meets de Ridder's 0%, the favorite is already banking his 123-second R1 control while Dolidze is still calibrating, and a first-round back-take and choke ends it early in the Meerschaert/Holland mold.
de Ridder fights behind the longer jab and never stands still in the pocket; the KO equity dies on the vine because it never gets to plant and load. Worse, Dolidze tires himself throwing leg kicks and defending entries, and de Ridder's late-round sub hunt (0.67 attempts in R3) finds the finish exactly when Dolidze's guard is most fatigued. The one weapon that beats the model is neutralized the moment the fight stops being a stationary firefight.
📋 Likely Gameplan
His KO window is Round 1 (0.31 KD avg) and de Ridder's chin is his softest target — load up early, catch the level change, and test the chin before the grappling grind begins. Chop the lead leg relentlessly (R1 33.3% leg%) to wreck the base a level-changer needs and buy time in the phase he can win. He does not need to win the fight in the first five minutes; he needs to land the one shot before the takedowns start.
Defend the takedown at the fence, not in open space — use physical strength to break the body lock, frame off, and pop back to feet; every stuffed entry drains de Ridder's suspect tank. Keep the guillotine loaded (Sub/15 0.81) as a live counter to any lazy, head-low double. If Dolidze survives the first two rounds, de Ridder's output collapses (6.3 R3 sig) and Dolidze's steady motor and championship cardio flip the momentum — a late surge steals rounds and, potentially, the fight.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Cage Dynamics
Strip the fight to its load-bearing beams and it is a single lever: elite takedown volume (rank 6/46) against bottom-tier takedown defense (26%) — the widest, cleanest phase-mismatch in this series. de Ridder's grappling is not a situational weapon; it is a system — jab to freeze, body and clinch to enter, level change to complete, control to grind, long limbs to finish — and every stage attacks a Dolidze attribute in the division's bottom third. The counter-weight is that Dolidze owns the one tool the system is briefly vulnerable to on the way in: power, in the pocket, on a chin that has cracked. The fight is a race between de Ridder reaching the mat and Dolidze landing the entry-interrupting bomb.
🎯Technical Breakdown
Both fighters benchmark against the same 46-fighter Middleweight pool, so the composites are directly comparable. de Ridder wins the grappling columns decisively — TD/15 4.74 (rank 6) vs 0.99 (rank 32), TDDef 67% vs a bottom-tier 26%, Sub/15 1.36 (rank 7) vs 0.81 — producing a 71.5 vs 36.8 grappling composite. On the feet the picture is more nuanced: Dolidze's striking composite (22.7) is torpedoed by worst-in-division accuracy (42%, rank 46/46), a metric that ignores his genuine one-shot power, while de Ridder's 48.7 is propped by a small-sample 61% accuracy that hides a poor 44% striking defense. The honest translation of the 60.1 vs 29.8 Technical Score: de Ridder is the far more complete, efficient technician whose single best skill attacks Dolidze's single worst one.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Three hinges decide it. First, the takedown pairing — de Ridder's 4.74 attempts per fifteen against a 26% defense is the mechanism that drags this into the phase he dominates, and it is the same problem Hernandez just used to submit Dolidze. Second, the chin race — de Ridder's 44% striking defense and thrice-cracked chin sit directly across from Dolidze's front-loaded R1 power (KD 0.31, 8 career knockdowns), so the opening five minutes are the highest-variance stretch of the fight. Third, the format — over 25 minutes Dolidze's proven cardio (72 vs 62) and de Ridder's documented late fade would loom large, but at 3 rounds de Ridder's fade is capped and his 7:23 finishing window covers the entire distance, a quiet thumb on the scale toward the favorite.
🏁Final Prediction
The most likely outcome is Reinier de Ridder by Submission (30%) — Sub/15 rank 7/46 and TD/15 rank 6/46 against a 26% takedown defense, on an opponent just submitted by a lesser grappler, make the tap his most repeatable path. His decision (22%) captures the grind-it-out control win when the finish doesn't come, and his KO/TKO (13%) is ground-strike driven, the Nickal template, not a standing-KO projection. Dolidze's KO/TKO (20%) is his largest category and the reason the favorite's conviction is capped: front-loaded power against a 44% striking defense and a chin cracked three times is a genuine, repeatable threat. His decision (12%) needs the Borralho blueprint, and his submission (3%) is a thin guillotine sliver.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 80% | Fair: -400
GOOD VALUE
Model: 30% | Fair: +233
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 66% | Fair: -194
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Overweights Dolidze's power & name – The KO threat shades the line closer than the grappling mismatch warrants.
- • Underprices the takedown exploit – 26% takedown defense vs elite volume is the cleanest edge on the card.
- • Finish-friendly – Two sub-3.5 SLpM finishers who both end fights push inside-the-distance value.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Reinier de Ridder
Grind-it-out control win — repeated takedowns bank rounds
Ground-strike TKO from top — the Nickal template
Largest path — triangle/armbar/back-take vs 26% TDD
💥Outcome Distribution - Roman Dolidze
Best lane — front-loaded R1 power vs a cracked chin
The Borralho map — stuff takedowns, out-point late
Thin sliver — opportunistic guillotine on a lazy shot
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Roman Dolidze
- • First round: Highest KO equity — front-loaded power (0.31 KD avg).
- • Chop the base: R1 leg kicks (33.3%) make the double-legs expensive.
- • Guillotine loaded: Punish any lazy, head-low shot on the way in.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Reinier de Ridder
- • Reach the mat: 4.74 TD/15 against a 26% defense — repeatedly.
- • Control & finish: 123s R1 control, then the triangle/armbar arsenal.
- • Close before R3: the 7:23 finishing window covers the whole fight.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
A clear, mechanism-driven lean to the more complete grappler — genuinely capped by one thing: Dolidze's front-loaded power
✅Supporting Factors
- • Grappling mismatch: TD/15 rank 6 & Sub/15 rank 7 vs a 26% takedown defense
- • The Hernandez blueprint — taken down and submitted, on film, on this card
- • Owns the frame for once: +2" height, +2" reach
- • 3-round format caps the late fade and covers his 7:23 window
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Dolidze's front-loaded power vs a chin cracked three times (44% StrDef)
- • de Ridder is skidding, not surging — 0-2 in his last two
- • The cardio edge is Dolidze's (72 vs 62) if the takedowns get stuffed
🏁Executive Summary
Across 100 simulations the recurring story is this: in roughly 65 of them, de Ridder weathers a dangerous opening exchange, closes the distance behind his jab and his length, drags Dolidze into the phase where a 26% takedown defense simply cannot hold, and finishes him on the mat (submission 30, ground-strike TKO 13) or grinds out a control-heavy decision (22) — the Hernandez loss repeating against a longer, more decorated grappler in a shorter fight. In the other 35, Dolidze's power does what the grappling cannot answer: he catches a level change with a heavy shot on a chin that has failed before and ends it early (20), executes the Borralho map to steal a decision his cardio earns (12), or lands a rare guillotine trap (3). The more complete fighter is Reinier de Ridder, and his single best skill attacks Roman Dolidze's single worst one — but de Ridder arrives beatable and cracked, and Dolidze carries the one weapon that turns a losing fight into a highlight in a single exchange.
Prediction: Reinier de Ridder by Submission is the single most likely path (30%), with his control-heavy decision (22%) and ground-strike KO/TKO (13%) behind it; Dolidze's live upset lane is the front-loaded KO/TKO (20%) his 8 career knockdowns make a genuine threat. The grappler should drag this to the floor and finish it there — but "The Caucasian" only needs one clean shot on a chin that has broken before, and he throws it in the exact round the takedowns haven't started yet.