Alden Coria vs Imanol Rodriguez – UFC 332: Silva vs. Wang Fight Analytics & Prediction

PRELIM · FLYWEIGHT · 3 ROUNDSUFC 332: Silva vs. Wang

Alden Coria

13W3L

Grinding Grappler

…

Imanol Rodriguez

7W0L

Undefeated Knockout Prospect

…

Seven fights and zero scorecards against a wrestler who averages 13:36 a night

FlyweightDelta Center, Salt Lake City, Utah, United StatesOctober 3, 2026Standard 30ft Octagon · 4,300 ft elevation

The Frame

What this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it

The Analyst's Take

A clean styles collision with a data problem on both sides. Imanol Rodriguez is 7-0 and has never been to a decision — six knockouts, one submission, five of them in the opening round — and he knocked out Kevin Borjas in the second round on his UFC debut in February 2026. His rate line reads 5.71 significant strikes landed per minute at 56% accuracy, both well above the flyweight baseline. It also derives from a single Octagon appearance lasting 5:47. Alden Coria is the opposite fighter: 3-0 in the UFC with two full fifteen-minute decisions and a third-round knockout of Alessandro Costa, 13:36 of average fight time, and the two best defensive numbers in the bout at 70% striking defence and 2.21 significant strikes absorbed per minute. He is also four inches taller and attempts 2.21 takedowns and 1.47 submissions per fifteen minutes, both well clear of the divisional baseline. The fight turns on one collision: Coria's wrestling against a takedown defence that does not appear on UFC.com at all, because nobody has ever attempted a takedown on Rodriguez in the Octagon. The one time anybody beat him in any format — Joseph Morales, by split decision in a TUF 33 exhibition — it was a grappler who took him fifteen minutes. Model: Coria 53% / Rodriguez 47%, conviction 4/10.

Alden Coria

Attribute

Imanol Rodriguez

Age

5'8" (68")+4" Coria

Height

5'4" (64")

67"+2.5" Coria

Reach

64.5"

Freestyle — control wrestling behind a jab

Fighting Style

Freestyle — knockout pressure

Morristown, United States

Origin

Ensenada, Mexico

Three

Career Losses

None — 7-0

13:36

Avg Fight Time

5:47

Three straight UFC wins

Recent Form

Two straight knockouts, one in the Octagon

Four inches of height and two and a half of reach to Coria, which is a wide gap at 125 pounds and the reason his defensive numbers look the way they do — 70% striking defence and 2.21 absorbed per minute are partly craft and partly geometry. For Rodriguez the height deficit is a familiar problem and his answer has always been to close it violently: five of his seven wins ended in the first round. The complication is that closing distance against a man who attempts 2.21 takedowns per fifteen minutes puts him exactly where he has never been.

Venue Factor
The Delta Center's 4,300 feet punishes output first, and this is the only fight on the card where one man has never contested a third round anywhere. Rodriguez averages 5:47 per Octagon appearance; Coria averages 13:36 and has gone the distance twice in 2026.

The Fighters

Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage

Alden Coria

Pro Record

13-3-0

UFC Record

3-0 — unbeaten in the Octagon

Streak

Three consecutive UFC wins

Finish Rate

69% (9 of 13 wins) — 5 KO/TKO, 4 submissions, 4 decisions

Avg Fight Time

13:36 in the UFC

Chin · SolidSOS · Rising — three straight Octagon winsGrinding grappler

A Fury FC product who has quietly gone 3-0 in the Octagon without anyone noticing. Coria knocked out Alessandro Costa in the third round on the Noche UFC card in September 2025, then took unanimous decisions over Luis Gurule in February 2026 and Stewart Nicoll in July. His rate line is built on two numbers that do not usually appear together: 70% striking defence and 2.21 significant strikes absorbed per minute — the best defensive figures in this bout — alongside 2.21 takedowns and 1.47 submission attempts per fifteen minutes, both well above the flyweight baseline. Four inches of height and an average fight time of 13:36 complete a profile that is entirely about accumulating minutes.

Imanol Rodriguez

Pro Record

7-0-0

UFC Record

1-0 — a second-round knockout on debut

Streak

Undefeated in seven professional fights

Finish Rate

100% (7 of 7 wins) — 6 KO/TKO, 1 submission, 0 decisions

Avg Fight Time

5:47 in the UFC

Chin · Untested — never stopped, never scored againstSOS · Regional plus one Octagon winUndefeated knockout prospect

Seven professional fights, seven wins, and not one of them has reached a judge. Rodriguez knocked out Dante Diaz and Uziel Gomez on the Mexican regional circuit, submitted Emmanuel Berumen with a rear-naked choke in ninety seconds, then knocked out Tyrell Hill and Alberto Trujillo in the first round at Fury FC. He was beaten by split decision by Joseph Morales in the TUF 33 semifinal — an exhibition that does not count on his professional record — and answered it with a first-round Contender Series knockout of Roque Conceição in October 2025 and a second-round knockout of Kevin Borjas on his UFC debut in February 2026. His rate line reads 5.71 significant strikes landed per minute at 56% accuracy with 2.42 absorbed. It also covers a single Octagon appearance lasting under six minutes.

Alden Coria

0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Knockdown Exchange

KD dealt vs absorbed

Imanol Rodriguez

0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Alden Coriasignature weapons

Fence Control195 seconds of control in his one scored second round — more than half the round — with 91.7% of his offence landing on the ground from there

×4

The Submission Threat1.47 submission attempts per fifteen minutes, nearly three times the flyweight baseline, behind four career submission wins

×4

Imanol Rodriguezsignature weapons

The First-Round KnockoutFive of his seven wins ended in the opening round — Trujillo at 4:27, Hill at 1:50, Berumen at 1:30, Conceição at 2:12

×6

Volume at 56%5.71 significant strikes landed per minute at 56% accuracy — both figures well above the flyweight baseline, and neither has ever been asked to hold for fifteen minutes

×7

Alden Coria

Stewart Nicoll

Decision — Unanimous

RR3

UFC FN: Du Plessis vs. Usman — Jul 18, 2026

Luis Gurule

Decision — Unanimous

RR3

UFC FN: Strickland vs. Hernandez — Feb 21, 2026

Alessandro Costa

KO/TKO

RR3 (0:47)

Noche UFC: Lopes vs. Silva — Sep 13, 2025

German Orpineda Ponce

KO/TKO

RR2 (3:21)

Fury FC 104 — May 25, 2025

Paris Moran

No Contest

RR1 (3:12)

Fury FC 100 — Jan 12, 2025

Pattern

Three straight Octagon wins and the progression is deliberate: a third-round knockout of a UFC veteran, then two unanimous decisions in which he simply out-worked younger opponents for fifteen minutes. Nobody has been close to hurting him. What the sample cannot tell us is how he handles genuine one-punch power, because he has not met it in the Octagon.

Imanol Rodriguez

Kevin Borjas

KO/TKO

RR2 (4:21)

UFC FN: Moreno vs. Kavanagh — Feb 28, 2026

Roque Conceição

KO/TKO

RR1 (2:12)

Dana White's Contender Series S9 — Oct 7, 2025

Alberto Trujillo

KO/TKO

RR1 (4:27)

Fury FC 96 — Sep 22, 2024

Tyrell Hill

KO/TKO

RR1 (1:50)

Fury FC 93 — Jul 12, 2024

Emmanuel Berumen

Submission — Rear-Naked Choke

RR1 (1:30)

Combate Global — Feb 24, 2024

Pattern

Five wins, five finishes, none of them past the second round — plus a Contender Series knockout and a UFC debut knockout inside eleven months. The one blemish anywhere in his career is a TUF exhibition loss to Joseph Morales, a grappler, over three rounds. That single result is the most relevant thing on either page and it does not count on his record.

Alden Coria

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Imanol Rodriguez

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Critical Insight
Two charts that could hardly be further apart and both close exactly — Coria 5 knockouts, 4 submissions and 4 decisions in 13 wins; Rodriguez 6 knockouts, 1 submission and zero decisions in 7. Coria's is the most evenly distributed profile in this analysis set: he wins by knockout, by tap and on the cards at roughly a third each. Rodriguez has a 100% finish rate and has literally never been scored. The round columns say the same thing louder — Rodriguez has no wins past the second round and Coria has three third-round or decision wins in his last four fights.

Common Opponents

Opponent	Alden	Imanol
Joseph Morales (level proxy)	—never faced	L· Split decision, TUF 33 semifinal (Aug 2025) — an exhibition, not on his pro record
The only time anyone has beaten Imanol Rodriguez in any format, and it came from a grappler who took him fifteen minutes — Morales fights Brandon Moreno three weeks earlier on this calendar
Alessandro Costa (level proxy)	W· KO/TKO R3 0:47 (Sep 2025)	—never faced
Coria's best win, and the only third-round finish either man owns
Fury Fighting Championship (shared promotion)	Two wins and a no-contest across Fury FC 98-104	Two first-round knockouts at Fury FC 93 and 96
Both came through the same Texas promotion within a year of each other without ever sharing a card

The Numbers

Composites, division ranks and round-by-round evidence

Striking

SLpM 25% · StrAcc 30% · StrDef 30% · SApM 15%

Alden

Imanolsmall sample

Rodriguez leads on the two offensive inputs — 5.71 significant strikes landed per minute at 56% accuracy against 4.05 at 42% — and Coria leads on both defensive ones, 70% striking defence against 58% and 2.21 absorbed per minute against 2.42. The 70% figure is the highest striking defence in this bout by twelve points. The flag on Rodriguez is the sample: his entire rate line comes from one Octagon appearance lasting 5:47.

Grappling

TD/15 25% · TDAcc 25% · TDDef 30% · Sub/15 20%

Alden

Imanol

The decisive gauge and a twenty-nine-point gap. Coria attempts 2.21 takedowns and 1.47 submissions per fifteen minutes against 1.30 and 0.00, with four career submissions against one. Rodriguez's takedown defence is not published at all — he has never had to use it in the Octagon — and that is precisely the untested surface Coria's whole game is built to attack.

Technical

(Striking + Grappling) / 2

0.0

Alden

Imanol

Eleven and a half points, and all of it is the grappling column. On the feet these two are close; the moment the fight touches the fence they are not.

Cardio

Fight time · rounds contested · pace curve

Alden

Imanolsmall sample

The second-widest gap on the page. Coria averages 13:36 per UFC fight and has gone the full fifteen minutes twice in three Octagon appearances; Rodriguez averages 5:47 and has never seen a judge in seven professional fights. Neither man's round table is deep — Coria's rests on one bout and Rodriguez has none at all — but the fight-time evidence is unambiguous.

Overall

(Technical + Cardio) / 2

0.0

Alden

0.0

Imanol

Nearly eighteen points, against a model line of six. The gauges cannot see an undefeated record, a 100% finish rate, or the plain fact that five of Rodriguez's seven wins ended before Coria's advantages get to exist.

Metric	Alden	Imanol
Avg Fight TimeAvg Fight TimeAverage fight duration — long averages mark proven cardio and decision-ready grinders.	13:36 (UFC)	5:47 (UFC)
Pace Tier	4.05 SLpM at 42% accuracy	5.71 SLpM at 56% accuracysmall sample
Control Time (R2)	195 seconds	Not found — no scored roundssmall sample
Damage Absorbed	2.21 per minute	2.42 per minute
Career Decisions	4 of 13 wins	0 of 7 wins

Archetype Base Rate

Grinding Grappler 53%47% Undefeated Knockout Prospect

No archetype base-rate row exists for this pairing · No historical archetype rate is applied. The 53/47 rests on 2.21 takedowns and 1.47 submission attempts per fifteen minutes against a takedown defence nobody has ever recorded, four inches of height, and 13:36 of average fight time against 5:47. It is capped hard by an undefeated 7-0 record, a 100% finish rate, five first-round finishes, and 56% striking accuracy against Coria's 42%.

Alden CoriaImanol Rodriguez

Flyweight

· 34 fighters

Stat	Alden	Alden rank	Div avg	Imanol rank	Imanol
SLpMSLpMSignificant Strikes Landed per Minute — offensive striking volume. Higher = busier striker.	4.05	—	~4.02	—	5.71
Str AccStr AccStriking Accuracy — share of significant strikes thrown that land. Higher = more precise.	42%	—	~44%	—	56%
Str DefStr DefStriking Defense — share of opponents' significant strikes that do NOT land. Higher = harder to hit.	70%	—	~57%	—	58%
SApMSApMSignificant Strikes Absorbed per Minute — how much a fighter gets hit. Lower = better.	2.21	—	~3.86	—	2.42
TD/15TD/15Takedowns Landed per 15 minutes — wrestling pressure / takedown engine.	2.21	—	~1.88	—	1.30
TD Acc	18%	—	~35%	—	33%
TD DefTD DefTakedown Defense — share of opponents' takedown attempts stuffed.	56%	—	~62%	—	Not found — never tested
Sub/15Sub/15Submission Attempts per 15 minutes — how actively a fighter hunts the finish on the mat.	1.47 (4 career subs)	—	~0.55	—	0.00 (1 career sub)
Pro Record	13-3-0	—	—	—	7-0-0
Career Finish Rate	69% (9 of 13)	—	—	—	100% (7 of 7)
Avg Fight TimeAvg Fight TimeAverage fight duration — long averages mark proven cardio and decision-ready grinders.	13:36	—	—	—	5:47

Statistical Verdict
Both men sit above the flyweight defensive baseline and Coria sits well above it — 70% striking defence and 2.21 significant strikes absorbed per minute are the two best figures in this bout by a distance. Rodriguez is twelve points above baseline on accuracy and above it on output. The row that decides the fight is fourth from the bottom and it is empty: Rodriguez's takedown defence has never been measured, against an opponent who attempts 2.21 takedowns and 1.47 submissions per fifteen. The two rows underneath it are the cap on that argument — 7-0 with a 100% finish rate against 13-3.

Significant Strikes Landed per Round

⚠ R1, R2, R3: single-fight sample for Alden Coria

⚠ R1, R2, R3: single-fight sample for Imanol Rodriguez

Control Time per Round (sec)

Alden Coria

His one scored second round contains 195 seconds of control and 91.7% ground offence — more than half the round spent on top. It is a single round of data and the single clearest picture of his gameplan.
Accuracy inverts across the rounds: 35.1% in the first, 63.2% in the second, 52.6% in the third. He starts loose at range and gets clean once the fight is where he wants it.
Output falls as the fight goes on — 20.0, 12.0, 10.0 landed — because the work moves from striking to control. Volume is not how he wins rounds.
The row rests on one scored bout. He has fought twice more since the database snapshot, both fifteen-minute decisions, and neither is reflected here.

Imanol Rodriguez

No round-by-round row exists for Imanol Rodriguez: his February 2026 debut postdates the database snapshot, so nothing above is estimated.
What the verified seven-bout log shows instead: five wins in the opening round — Trujillo at 4:27, Hill at 1:50, Berumen at 1:30, Conceição at 2:12 — plus a second-round knockout of Kevin Borjas on debut.
He has never contested a third round and has never been to a decision in seven professional fights. His UFC average fight time is 5:47.
His UFC.com line — 5.71 significant strikes per minute at 56% accuracy, 2.42 absorbed — is 5:47 of cage time rendered as arithmetic.

Critical Insight
Two nearly empty tables, and what fills the space is the career logs. Coria's one scored bout shows a fighter whose accuracy climbs from 35.1% to 63.2% as the fight moves to the mat and whose control time reaches 195 seconds in a single round; Rodriguez's log shows five first-round finishes and not one scorecard in seven fights. The shape of the fight is therefore unusually legible despite the thin data: Rodriguez's equity is concentrated before the ten-minute mark and Coria's accrues after it, and neither man has any evidence about what the other does best.

Strike Targeting (career avg)

Head hunting vs body work vs leg attack — the shape of the damage. Fighters without UFC samples are omitted rather than shown as 0%.

Range Profile — where the minutes go

AldenImanol · N/A

63%Distance—

0%Clinch—

37%Ground—

Share of significant-strike volume by range from UFC career data. Debutants / fighters without Octagon samples show as N/A.

The Story of the Fight

Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath

Where the fight lives

Who owns each phase — and by how much

Open SpaceImanol owns it

5.71 significant strikes per minute at 56% accuracy against 4.05 at 42% — but into the best striking defence in the bout at 70%

Pocket / ExchangesImanol owns it

Six career knockouts and five first-round finishes against five knockouts and a man who has never dropped anyone in the Octagon

ClinchAlden owns it

Four inches of height and 195 seconds of control in his one scored second round, against a fighter with no recorded takedown defence

GroundAlden owns it

1.47 submission attempts per fifteen minutes and four career submissions against 0.00 and one

Path to Victory

Alden Coria

Get him to the fence. Nobody has ever attempted a takedown on Imanol Rodriguez in the Octagon, and Coria attempts 2.21 per fifteen minutes.

Why they win

2.21 takedowns per fifteen against no recorded defence

Rodriguez's takedown defence does not appear on UFC.com because nobody has tried. This is the entire fight.

Four inches of height and 2.5 of reach

At 125 pounds that is a wide frame gap, and it is why Coria absorbs only 2.21 significant strikes per minute.

The best defensive line in the bout

70% striking defence against 58%, twelve points clear and well above the flyweight baseline.

13:36 of average fight time

Two full fifteen-minute wins in 2026 against a man who has never been to a judge in seven fights.

1.47 submission attempts per fifteen

Nearly three times the divisional baseline, behind four career submissions, aimed at an untested sprawl.

Three straight Octagon wins

Including a third-round knockout of the far more experienced Alessandro Costa.

The gameplan

1
Change levels early and often
The takedown defence has never been recorded. Even failed entries generate information nobody else in this cage has.
2
Use the four inches
Jab, frame, and make a 5'4" opponent travel. His 70% striking defence is partly geometry and he should lean on it.
3
Avoid the pocket in the first five minutes
Five of Rodriguez's seven wins ended there. Coria's own first round is his least accurate at 35.1%.
4
Hunt the back once it is on the mat
Four career submissions and 1.47 attempts per fifteen against a man with one submission win and no defensive sample.
5
Make it a third round
Rodriguez has never had one. Coria has had two in 2026 and won both on the cards.
6
Contingency — if Plan A fails
If the takedowns are stuffed twice early, the answer is clinch work and volume rather than a third failed shot into a counter-puncher.

Path to Victory

Imanol Rodriguez

Finish inside two rounds, as he has done in all seven professional fights.

Why they win

Undefeated with a 100% finish rate

Seven wins, seven finishes, five in the opening round. Nobody has taken him past the second.

Fourteen points of striking accuracy

56% against 42%, at 5.71 significant strikes per minute against 4.05.

A UFC debut knockout

Kevin Borjas, second round, February 2026 — the most recent evidence anyone has about him at this level.

Two years younger

26 against 28, with six fewer professional fights of mileage.

Coria converts only 18% of his takedowns

The wrestling volume is high and the conversion is not. Every failed entry is a scoring opportunity for a 56%-accuracy striker.

Coria has never faced this kind of power

Nobody has knocked Coria down in the Octagon — and nobody he has faced there has five first-round finishes.

The gameplan

1
Finish it in the first two rounds
Seven professional fights, seven finishes, none past the second. His whole career says the same thing.
2
Sprawl and get up — do not scramble
Coria has four career submissions and 1.47 attempts per fifteen minutes. The mat is the one place a 100% finisher cannot afford to visit.
3
Attack the body on the way in
Closing four inches of distance is expensive; body work is the cheapest way to make a taller man stop moving backwards.
4
Punish the failed shot
Coria converts 18% of his takedowns. Every stuffed attempt is five seconds of an open opponent for a 56%-accuracy striker.
5
Keep the pace honest
At 4,300 feet, in a round he has never fought, pacing is not caution — it is the only insurance policy available to him.
6
Contingency — if Plan A fails
If the fight reaches the third with Coria ahead on control, he has to accept the risk and chase. He has never won a decision and this is not the night to learn.

Danger Zone

How Alden Coria loses

He walks into the power that has ended five fights in the opening round, before his own advantages have had a minute to exist.
His 18% takedown accuracy holds true, none of the entries land, and he loses three close rounds to a cleaner striker.
He closes four inches of distance into a counter and discovers that a 70% striking defence built against Fury FC opponents does not transfer.

Danger Zone

How Imanol Rodriguez loses

The first takedown lands and he spends 195 seconds of a round underneath a man with four career submissions — a position no opponent has ever put him in.
The fight reaches a third round for the first time in his professional life, at 4,300 feet, against someone averaging 13:36 a night.
He repeats the Joseph Morales exhibition: out-grappled for fifteen minutes by the only kind of opponent who has ever solved him.

Rodriguez's defining fact

Seven Fights, Zero Scorecards

Imanol Rodriguez is 7-0 and has never been to a decision in his professional career. Six knockouts, one submission, five of them in the opening round. He has also never fought a third round, never had his takedown defence recorded, and averages 5:47 per Octagon appearance. Everything he has proven, he has proven inside two rounds.

career decisions in seven fights

Where the fight is decided

The Untested Sprawl

Rodriguez's takedown defence does not appear on UFC.com because he has never had to use it — no opponent has recorded a takedown attempt against him in the Octagon. Alden Coria attempts 2.21 takedowns and 1.47 submissions per fifteen minutes, both well above the flyweight baseline. That collision is the entire fight and only one side of it has any data.

Not found

Rodriguez's takedown defence

Coria's signature round

195 Seconds

In his one scored second round, Alden Coria held 195 seconds of control — more than half the round — and landed 91.7% of his offence from the ground. It is a single round of data and it is the clearest picture available of what he is trying to do to a man who has never been held anywhere.

195s

Coria control time, scored R2

The overlooked half of Coria's case

Four Inches and Seventy Percent

Coria is four inches taller with two and a half more reach, and he defends 70% of significant strikes while absorbing 2.21 per minute — both the best figures in this bout and both well clear of the flyweight baseline. He is not merely a wrestler hoping to survive on the feet; he is the harder man to hit.

70%

Coria's striking defence

The honest caveat

Both Round Tables Are Nearly Empty

Coria's round-by-round data rests on one scored bout and Rodriguez has none at all — the database snapshot predates his debut. Coria has since fought twice more. Everything below the career logs on this page is thin, and the conviction rating of four reflects that rather than hiding it.

The Five-Round Clock

Alden Coria danger windowImanol Rodriguez danger windowNeutral / contested

R1 · 0:00–5:00The prospect's window

Five of Rodriguez's seven career wins ended in the opening round, and he lands 5.71 significant strikes per minute at 56% accuracy. Coria's own first round is his busiest at 20.0 landed but his least accurate at 35.1%, with no control time recorded at all.

Critical Insight
The most sharply divided clock on the prelims. Five of Rodriguez's seven professional wins ended in the opening round and he has never seen a third; Coria's control time, accuracy and finishing all live in the second half of fights, with a 195-second control round and a third-round knockout on his log. Roughly two-thirds of the prospect's equity resolves before the ten-minute mark and almost none of the grappler's does. The fight is effectively two different contests stapled together, and whoever gets to fight theirs first wins.

Finish Threat by Round

Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.

The Verdict

One hundred simulated fights, the betting market, and our conviction

If you only read 3 things

Imanol Rodriguez is 7-0 with a 100% finish rate and has never been to a decision — or a third round — in his professional career.

Alden Coria attempts 2.21 takedowns and 1.47 submissions per fifteen minutes against a takedown defence UFC.com cannot publish, because nobody has ever tried one on Rodriguez in the Octagon.

Model: Coria 53% / Rodriguez 47%, conviction 4/10 — a flat distribution with no bucket above 27%, because the data on both sides is genuinely thin.

100 Simulated Fights

Coria Decision — 27%Rodriguez KO/TKO — 26%Coria Submission — 15%Coria KO/TKO — 11%Rodriguez Decision — 18%Rodriguez Submission — 3%

Each square = 1 simulated fight. Alden Coria gold · Imanol Rodriguez orange · full color = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

Wrestling against an unrecorded sprawl

2.21 takedowns and 1.47 submission attempts per fifteen minutes against a takedown defence UFC.com cannot publish because nobody has tested it.

The finishing asymmetry

Rodriguez is 7-0 with a 100% finish rate and five first-round wins; Coria has never been finished and averages 13:36 a fight.

Four inches of height and 70% striking defence

The two best defensive figures in the bout, and a frame gap that is wide at flyweight.

The TUF exhibition

The only person to beat Imanol Rodriguez in any format is Joseph Morales — a grappler, over three rounds. It does not count on his record and it is the most relevant result on this page.

Takedown conversion

Coria's 18% accuracy means the entries are frequent and unclean; every stuffed shot is a scoring opportunity for a 56% striker.

Almost no round-by-round data on either man

Coria's table rests on one bout and Rodriguez has none. Conviction is four for a reason.

Fight Scripts

of simulations

The Grind

Coria uses four inches of height to get to the fence, and the 195 seconds of control from his scored second round becomes the shape of the whole fight. Rodriguez has never had his takedown defence tested and has never seen a third round. A 29-28 or 30-27 built on minutes rather than damage.

Scripted outcomes for Alden Coria vs Imanol Rodriguez — how each version of this fight unfolds.

Alden Coria win probability

11%

27%

15%

KO/TKODECSUB

Five career knockouts including a third-round finish of Alessandro Costa. Most of this bucket is a late stoppage against a fading prospect rather than a clean shot at range.
The largest bucket on the page and the honest one — 13:36 of average fight time, two full fifteen-minute wins in 2026, against a man who has never seen a judge.
Four career submissions and 1.47 attempts per fifteen minutes, aimed at a takedown defence that has never been recorded. The most under-priced outcome in this bout.

Imanol Rodriguez win probability

26%

18%

KO/TKODECSUB

The single largest individual outcome. Six career knockouts, five of them in the opening round, at 5.71 significant strikes per minute and 56% accuracy — front-loaded into the first eight minutes.
He has never had one. Winning fifteen minutes against a grappler averaging 13:36 a fight would be the least-rehearsed thing he has ever done, which is why this bucket sits below his knockout figure.
One career submission, a rear-naked choke in ninety seconds. Present as a scramble outcome rather than a plan.

Projected Scorecards

How the model scores each round

Imanol

Alden

29-28 Coria

Rodriguez takes the first on volume; Coria takes the last two on control

The most likely card, and the shape of both his 2026 decisions

30-27 Coria

The takedown lands early and the fight never returns to the feet

Live — Rodriguez has no recorded takedown defence at all

29-28 Rodriguez

The sprawl holds and 56% accuracy decides three close rounds

His only decision path, and he has never had one in seven fights

Moneyline

Alden Coria

Not posted

Imanol Rodriguez

Not posted

No book has published a line for this bout at the time of writing. Converting our own probabilities gives fair prices of Alden Coria -113 from 53% and Imanol Rodriguez -113 from 47% — model outputs, not quotes, and close to a true pick'em. Live prices appear in the hero above once a market opens.

Props: model vs market

Prop	Odds	Implied %	Model %	Fair	Edge	Verdict

Best Value
Coria by submission at 15% is the most under-priced outcome on the page: four career submissions, 1.47 attempts per fifteen minutes, and an opponent whose takedown defence has never been recorded by anybody. Markets will price an undefeated 7-0 knockout artist and ignore that the only person to beat him in any format was a grappler. On the other side, Rodriguez by knockout at 26% is the single largest individual bucket and a fair expression of the favourite's real danger.

Conviction

4/10

A narrow structural lean on thin evidence. Coria owns the four inches, the 70% striking defence, the 13:36 average fight time and — decisively — 2.21 takedowns and 1.47 submission attempts per fifteen minutes aimed at a sprawl nobody has ever recorded. The only time anyone has beaten Rodriguez in any format was a grappler taking him fifteen minutes. Against that: a 7-0 record with a 100% finish rate, five first-round wins, fourteen points more accuracy, and the plain fact that Coria's 18% takedown conversion means his best weapon frequently does not land. Lean: Alden Coria.

What backs the lean

2.21 takedowns and 1.47 submission attempts per fifteen minutes against a takedown defence with no recorded sample.
Four inches of height and two and a half of reach at 125 pounds.
70% striking defence and 2.21 significant strikes absorbed per minute — the best figures in the bout.
13:36 of average fight time against 5:47, with two fifteen-minute wins in 2026.
Four career submissions against one, aimed at the only fighter here who has never defended a shot.
The one man who has beaten Rodriguez in any format was a grappler over three rounds.

What limits it

Undefeated at 7-0 with a 100% career finish rate and five first-round wins.
Fourteen points of striking accuracy — 56% to 42% — at higher volume.
Coria converts only 18% of his takedown attempts; the mechanism is frequent but unreliable.
A second-round knockout of Kevin Borjas on his UFC debut in February 2026.
Two years younger with six fewer professional fights of mileage.
Coria's round-by-round table rests on one scored bout, and Rodriguez has none at all.

Final Assessment

In roughly fifty-three of one hundred simulations Alden Coria wins, and in twenty-seven of those he wins on the cards. The mechanism is four inches of height, 70% striking defence, and 2.21 takedowns per fifteen minutes aimed at a sprawl that has never once been tested — his single scored second round contains 195 seconds of control and 91.7% ground offence, which is exactly the fight he is trying to have. Fifteen more end with the fifth submission of his career.

In the other forty-seven, Imanol Rodriguez does what he has done seven times out of seven. Five of his career wins ended in the opening round and none has ever reached a judge; he lands 5.71 significant strikes per minute at 56% accuracy against a man who converts only 18% of his takedown attempts and has to close four inches to start his own fight. Twenty-six of those are knockouts and eighteen are the decisions he has never actually had.

Both round tables on this page are nearly empty and the conviction rating says so. What is not thin is the shape: a 100% finisher who has never seen minute eleven against a control wrestler who averages 13:36 a night, with the deciding column — takedown defence — literally unmeasured on one side. On October 3 in Salt Lake City — Coria 53% / Rodriguez 47%, conviction 4/10.

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