Jan Błachowicz vs Bogdan Guskov
Light Heavyweight Bout • UFC Fight Night: Medic vs. Rodriguez
Saturday, August 1, 2026 • Belgrade Arena, Belgrade, Serbia
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Jan Błachowicz
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Bogdan Guskov
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Jan Błachowicz
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-06 | Bogdan Guskov | D | Draw (Majority) (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-03-22 | Carlos Ulberg | L | Decision (Unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-07-29 | Alex Pereira | L | Decision (Split) (R3, 5:00) |
| 2022-12-10 | Magomed Ankalaev | D | Draw (Split) (R5, 5:00) |
| 2022-05-14 | Aleksandar Rakić | W | KO/TKO (R3, 1:11) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Bogdan Guskov
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-06 | Jan Błachowicz | D | Draw (Majority) (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-09-27 | Nikita Krylov | W | KO/TKO (R1, 4:18) |
| 2025-01-18 | Billy Elekana | W | Submission (R2, 3:33) |
| 2024-08-03 | Ryan Spann | W | KO/TKO (R2, 3:16) |
| 2024-02-10 | Zac Pauga | W | KO/TKO (R1, 3:38) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (47 vs 43) and Grappling Composite (55 vs 21). Błachowicz's composites are public-career estimates (no DB data); Guskov's are DB-computed. Balances striking effectiveness with grappling to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Visual comparison of key performance metrics between both fighters
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Jan Błachowicz Key Advantages
On paper Błachowicz is the more complete, better-rounded fighter. He absorbs less (2.91 SApM vs 3.40), defends strikes better (53% vs 50%), and carries a real two-way grappling game — a legitimate 68% takedown defense (career, web) and a BJJ black belt that has produced UFC submissions of Nikita Krylov and Devin Clark. Those inputs give him the higher composite (~53 overall vs ~45) and the higher Technical Score (~51 vs 32). If he can turn this into a technical, positional fight rather than a firefight, the skill gap is his to exploit — the honest caveat being that the numbers were built in his prime, a decade ago.
Guskov's 50% takedown defense and 0.00 takedown offense are the softest targets in his profile — he is a striker who grapples opportunistically, not a wrestler. A Błachowicz who commits to the clinch and top control could smother the power, bank control time, and win the grappling exchanges decisively — the exact recipe that produced his UFC decision wins over Cannonier, Manuwa, and Pokrajac. The catch is his surgically-repaired meniscus: a fresh knee is the worst possible injury for a wrestling-based gameplan, and notably he chose to strike, not wrestle, in fight one. Whether the knee now lets him take this lane is the single biggest swing question in the matchup.
Fight one proved Błachowicz's chin and recovery held at 43: he survived the Round-2 swarm after being dropped and came back to score his own Round-3 knockdown of an "Elite"-chinned puncher. One judge had him 29-28 — the margin between "draw" and "Błachowicz decision" was a single round, so he is adjusting a coin flip, not chasing a deficit. A former UFC Light Heavyweight Champion who KO'd Reyes, Rockhold and Anderson, his "Polish Power" is one-shot equity that ages slowly: a fighter's legs fade before his right hand does, and that right hand can end any single exchange.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
The fight-one Round 2 repeats: a clean Guskov right hand drops Błachowicz again — but this time, a year older and off knee surgery, his recovery is half a beat slower and the swarm finishes it. Guskov's documented R2 (31.7 sig, 65.9% accuracy, 0.67 KD average, 52.7% ground, 103 seconds of control) already produced a knockdown, a top-position pounding, a cut from an elbow, and a 10-8. Błachowicz's own peak round is the third; if his slow-start tendency hands Guskov the first two rounds before his late power ever activates, R3 heroics in a three-round fight aren't enough.
His repaired knee robs the base he needs to wrestle, so he is forced to strike with a faster man and loses the speed race across three rounds — dropping a decision the way he did to Carlos Ulberg. The fight-one recap is blunt: Błachowicz "struggled with Guskov's speed," and a year of aging plus a meniscus surgery does not narrow that gap. If he over-commits to takedowns the knee can't support, he gets stuffed against the cage and eats counter power on the exit — Guskov's tech_counter_rate is 0.50. Everything downstream flows from the ten-year age asymmetry.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Knee permitting, this is the lane: Guskov's 50% takedown defense and zero takedown game are the only soft targets in his profile. Błachowicz should clinch, trip, control, and bank rounds away from the power — the control-and-decision grind he is built to win and Guskov has never had to solve. He must avoid the Round-2 firefight at all costs, because that is Guskov's kill window: tie him up, change levels, slow the pace, and deny the clean right hand. Turning the power off entirely is the single cleanest path to inverting the draw into a Błachowicz decision.
He can't win a speed war, so he must win a chess match: use the reach and jab for long-range pot-shots, stay defensively responsible, and steal the early round whose tempo he lost last time — he cannot afford to gift Round 2 again. Then survive to the third and unload the late power. His late-rally pattern is real (the R3 knockdown of Guskov, the Rakić R3 KO), and if the fight is close entering the final five minutes, "Polish Power" is a live finishing path against a chin that is durable, not bulletproof.
🚀 Bogdan Guskov Key Advantages
This is the cleanest edge in the fight and it needs no invented data. Błachowicz is 43, "struggled with Guskov's speed" the first time, and now returns from meniscus surgery — the exact injury that erodes the footwork and base a 43-year-old most needs. Guskov is 33 and in his athletic prime. There is no meaningful structural mismatch in height, length or stance — they already fought 15 minutes and neither frame was a problem — so the decisive differential is not a measurement on a chart; it is the ten-year age gap and everything that surrounds it. Every minute that passes, the gap widens.
He already proved he is the harder hitter — he dropped the former champ. Fight one is the proof of concept: a clean R2 right hand put Błachowicz on the mat and nearly ended it. With a KD exchange ratio of 3.00 (6 dealt / 2 absorbed), an Elite chin, a 1.55 damage ratio and a 100% finish rate — all 18 career wins by stoppage, 15 by KO/TKO, zero decisions — Guskov's power is the single most fight-ending tool in the cage, and it has already landed on this specific chin. His Elite durability also lets him walk through Błachowicz's power to land his own; he doesn't need to out-point anyone, just win one clean exchange.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Błachowicz fully commits to grappling early, exploits the 50% takedown defense, and grinds out top-control rounds the way he ground out Cannonier, Manuwa and Pokrajac — turning Guskov's power off entirely. Guskov does not shoot to control; his ground game is reactive, following hurt opponents down to finish. If he is the one being put on his back and ridden, his 0.00 takedown offense gives him no wrestling answer, his striking value evaporates, and the minutes drain toward a Błachowicz decision. The lane exists; only Błachowicz's repaired knee stands between it and the scorecards.
His own methodical Round 1 (12.8 sig at 46% accuracy) lets Błachowicz bank an early round, and the veteran's late power steals R3 again — flipping the draw into a Błachowicz decision. And he can be dropped: Błachowicz put him down late in Round 3 of fight one, so his Elite chin is durable, not bulletproof. A single clean "Polish right hand" — the punch that KO'd Reyes, Rockhold and Anderson — rewrites the night. If Guskov over-invests in the R2 finish and it doesn't come, he is also in genuinely deep water he has never tested against a championship-experienced 25-minute veteran.
📋 Likely Gameplan
The data and the tape agree this is his window. Survive the feeling-out first round, pressure, find the right hand, and when Błachowicz is hurt, follow him down and finish with ground-and-pound and elbows — the exact fight-one sequence that produced the knockdown, the top control, the cut, and the 10-8. His DB profile spikes in R2 (31.7 sig, 0.67 KD, 52.7% ground, 103s control) and he reaches that peak before Błachowicz's own R3 peak ever arrives. The single most dangerous five minutes of this rematch are minutes 6–10.
Target the legs and the repaired knee early — his tech_leg_kick_rate is 0.60, and chopping a 43-year-old's surgically-repaired lead leg compromises his base, his takedowns and his late-round mobility all at once. Keep it standing and make Błachowicz strike, where Guskov wins the speed and power race; sprawl on the rare shot — the one place he is vulnerable — and reset to range. Trust the Elite chin, hunt the kill, and don't fear deep water: his "Strong Finisher" profile (R3/R1 output 129%) and his youth mean the late rounds favor him too.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
📼The Rematch Anchor
We almost never get a 15-minute, judge-scored preview of the exact matchup we're analyzing — here we do. The UFC 323 majority draw (28-28, 28-28, 29-28 Błachowicz) removes most of the guesswork: we know the fight is genuinely close, we know how it was close (Guskov Round 2, Błachowicz Round 3, Round 1 a toss-up), and we know who came nearer to finishing — Guskov, via the R2 knockdown-and-swarm that earned a 10-8. The analytical task is therefore not "who wins a blank-slate fight" but "which direction does the delta move between December 2025 and August 2026?" — and every delta points the same way: a year older, a meniscus surgery, and more rust for Błachowicz; unchanged prime and continued finishing for Guskov.
🎯Technical Breakdown
The composite framework nominally favors Błachowicz (~53 overall vs ~45; Technical Score ~51 vs 32) because it rewards his well-roundedness and punishes Guskov's grappling void — the same structural quirk that understates every one-dimensional finisher. But those numbers are prime-era, web-sourced averages that are a decade stale, and they cannot price the two things this fight actually turns on: Guskov's concentrated power (KD exchange 3.00, 1.55 damage ratio, Elite chin, 100% finish rate) and the ten-year freshness gap. The one number to trust in Błachowicz's favor is the matchup lever: Guskov's 50% takedown defense and 0.00 takedown offense leave a control-and-decision lane wide open — if the repaired knee lets him use it.
🧩Key Battle Areas
The cleanest structural insight is the round-alignment problem: Błachowicz's best round is the third; Guskov's best round is the second — and in a three-round fight Guskov reaches his peak danger window first. His R2 profile (31.7 sig, 65.9% accuracy, 0.67 KD, 52.7% ground, 103s control) is exactly what happened in fight one, and if he banks a 10-8 there, Błachowicz's late surge only buys a draw, not a win. To actually win the veteran must change the sequence — win Round 1 clearly or neutralize Round 2 with wrestling — on a worse knee than last time. His counter-currency is real: the R3 knockdown he already scored and the "Polish Power" that can catch an Elite-but-not- invincible chin a second time.
🏁Final Prediction
The single most likely outcome is Bogdan Guskov by KO/TKO (31%) — most often by finding the same Round-2 right hand that dropped Błachowicz the first time and, against a slower, surgically- repaired 43-year-old, this time closing the show. Behind it sits Guskov by decision (17%, against type — he has never won one) and by submission (7%, a back-take following a hurt opponent), for a 55% total. Błachowicz's clearest route is a wrestling-led decision (27%) exploiting the 50% takedown defense, with his late "Polish Power" (13% KO/TKO) and a black-belt scramble (5% submission) rounding out his 45%. The fight is close — it was a draw — but the trajectories are not.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: ~26% | Implied: 25% — Guskov's documented kill window
GOOD VALUE
Model: ~82% | Implied: 75% — methodical R1, both durable
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 31% | Implied: 33% — his single largest path
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Prices off the draw, not the deltas – the fight was even in December; age and a meniscus surgery move it.
- • Over-trusts a stale composite – the model favors Błachowicz on prime-era numbers that are a decade old.
- • The R2 kill window – Guskov's documented minutes 6–10 arrive before Błachowicz's Round-3 peak.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Jan Błachowicz
His largest path — wrestle the 50% TDD, grind control rounds
"Polish Power" lands like the fight-one R3 knockdown
Black-belt scramble threat, little used lately
💥Outcome Distribution - Bogdan Guskov
His largest path — the R2 right hand that already dropped him
Against type (0 career decisions) but live off fight one
Back-take / RNC following a hurt opponent (tech_rnc 0.30)
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Bogdan Guskov
- • Round 2 (minutes 6–10): His documented kill window — highest KO equity.
- • Attack the knee: Leg kicks (0.60 rate) chop the surgically-repaired base.
- • Trust the chin: Elite durability — walk him down and hunt one clean right hand.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Jan Błachowicz
- • Wrestle early: Exploit the 50% TDD; clinch, trip and bank control rounds.
- • Steal Round 1: Reach and jab win the round he lost the tempo of last time.
- • Survive to R3: Unload the late "Polish Power" if the fight is close.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
A measured lean — every delta favors Guskov, but the first fight was a draw
✅Supporting Factors
- • Every delta since the Dec draw favors Guskov (age, knee, rust)
- • Already dropped and out-pointed Błachowicz for a round
- • R2 kill window arrives before Błachowicz's R3 peak
- • 100% finish rate; archetype baseline 56.6% his way
⚠️Risk Factors
- • The first fight was a draw — one judge had Błachowicz
- • Composite model favors Błachowicz (~53 vs ~45)
- • Błachowicz's data is a void — wide error bars
- • His chin held at 43; he dropped Guskov back in R3
🏁Executive Summary
We run 100 simulations and watch the December fight re-run with the clock advanced. In roughly 55 of them, Guskov's youth and power decide it — most often (31) by finding the same Round-2 right hand that dropped Błachowicz the first time and, against a slower, surgically-repaired 43-year-old, this time closing the show; less often by following him to the mat for a back-take (7) or by simply being the fresher, busier man across three rounds and taking the cards he has never historically won but could here (17). In the other 45, the veteran's craft answers the calendar: his clearest route (27) is to do the one thing he declined to do in fight one — wrestle — exploiting Guskov's 50% takedown defense to grind out control rounds, knee permitting; failing that, his trademark late power (13) catches an Elite-but-not-invincible chin the way it did in Round 3 last time.
Prediction: Bogdan Guskov def. Jan Błachowicz (55% to 45%). Guskov by KO/TKO is the single most likely individual outcome (31%), his largest and most tape-supported path; Błachowicz's best lane is a wrestling-led decision (27%). The fight itself is close — it was a draw — but the trajectories are not: a 43-year-old off knee surgery, winless in four, does not typically improve against a prime finisher he already struggled with for speed. A lean, not a lock — held with the humility a drawn rematch demands.