Dione Barbosa vs Anna Melisano
Women's Flyweight Bout • UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman
Saturday, July 18, 2026 • Paycom Center, Oklahoma City
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Dione Barbosa
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Anna Melisano
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Dione Barbosa
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-04 | Melissa Gatto | W | Decision (Majority) (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-08-16 | Karine Silva | L | Decision (Unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-04-05 | Diana Belbita | W | Submission (Arm-Triangle) (R1, 4:13) |
| 2024-07-20 | Miranda Maverick | L | Decision (Unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-05-04 | Ernesta Kareckaite | W | Decision (Unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Anna Melisano
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| TUF 34 | Melissa Amaya (The Ultimate Fighter 34) | L | Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) (R1, N/A) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (22 vs 62) and Grappling Composite (80 vs 40). Balances overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills. Barbosa is a DB data-void grappler and Melisano is a data-poor UFC newcomer, so both fighters' composites are clearly-labeled estimates — Barbosa's from her judo/BJJ pedigree and verified fight log, Melisano's from her Muay Thai background and regional record. Neither is engine-computed.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Visual comparison of key performance metrics between both fighters
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Dione Barbosa Key Advantages
This is the fight. Barbosa is a 7-time Brazilian national judo champion and BJJ black belt; Melisano's estimated takedown defense sits in the mid-50s, and her lone professional loss came via a first-round rear-naked choke to Melissa Amaya on The Ultimate Fighter 34 — proof her back is a live target against a live grappler. Judo trips and body-lock throws from the clinch are a different, harder-to-prepare-for takedown threat than anything a Muay Thai striker typically drills against, and once Barbosa lands in top position her submission résumé — four career first-round finishes plus a UFC arm-triangle — makes the next two minutes genuinely dangerous, not merely "control time." Her single best skill points straight at the one hole already exposed on Melisano's record.
The Diana Belbita arm-triangle (R1, 4:13) is Barbosa's proof of concept: Belbita is a striker, and Barbosa took her down and finished her in the first round. Melisano is the same broad archetype — a striker, not a grappler — and she has already been finished by submission at the highest level she has competed, tapping to Melissa Amaya's rear-naked choke inside the opening round of her TUF 34 appearance. Every one of Barbosa's four career stoppages is a first-round submission, so her finishing danger is real, repeatable, and front-loaded into the opening five minutes against an opponent whose ground defense is an open question.
Melisano's 70-inch reach actually flips the physical mismatch Barbosa is used to exploiting — if anything, Melisano is the longer, rangier fighter here. But Barbosa brings something Melisano cannot: Octagon experience. This is Barbosa's sixth walk to the cage under the UFC banner (a 3-2 record) against Melisano's literal first, taken on short notice as a replacement for an injured Veronica Hardy with a necessarily compressed camp. Nerves, unfamiliar cage dimensions, and a shortened preparation window are real variables working in Barbosa's favor before the horn ever sounds.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
The worst version of this fight for Barbosa is the one Maverick and Karine Silva already showed: her judo entries get timed and stuffed, she is forced to operate in open space, and a longer, sharper striker out-works her over three rounds. Both of Barbosa's UFC losses came exactly this way — against fighters who could match or neutralize her grappling and out-position her for 15 minutes. Melisano's 70-inch reach and Muay Thai elbows are real tools for exactly that kind of night, and when Barbosa can't get it to the mat, her own striking is below UFC average and she has no Plan B on the feet.
Two other paths cost Barbosa the fight. She over-commits to an early submission, Melisano scrambles free, and the bout becomes the kickboxing match Barbosa cannot win on the feet — a live risk, since Melisano does carry one career submission win of her own on her regional résumé, so a sloppy top-position pass is not free. And at 34 against a fresher 29-year-old debutante, if she doesn't finish early she can fade in a scramble-heavy third round and lose the championship-minutes output battle, the way her UFC fights have repeatedly slid to the cards.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Barbosa should close behind level changes, tie up, and hunt the judo trip or body-lock throw early — Round 1 is her documented finishing window, with a full gas tank and her crispest entries, and it is also when a short-notice, first-time UFC fighter is most likely to be tentative. The priority is to win the first round on the mat: establish top position, advance, and chase the arm-triangle or back-take before Melisano finds her feet, exactly as she finished Belbita. She should refuse to let Melisano's length turn the bout into the range-and-elbows striking match the Muay Thai fighter wants.
If the submission isn't there, Barbosa wins the way she beat Kareckaite and Gatto — bank position and control time, win the grappling exchanges, and take the decision rather than get baited into a kickboxing match against the longer-limbed striker. She must pass with careful posture given Melisano's length and sharp elbows off her back, and manage her gas tank: at 34 against a fresher 29-year-old, front-loading the grappling investment in Rounds 1–2 is smarter than chasing a fade-round finish she may not have the legs for.
🚀 Anna Melisano Key Advantages
At 70 inches, Melisano's reach is long even for her own weight class and roughly three-and-a-half inches longer than Barbosa's — a real, verifiable physical edge in the one area Barbosa cannot claim back. She is not just a volume striker, either: two of her six professional wins have come by knockout or TKO, and her Muay Thai base with sharp elbows gives her a finishing dimension Barbosa's own largely unmeasured striking does not obviously answer. If Melisano can keep the fight at the end of her limbs, she has a real path to hurt Barbosa on the way in.
At 29 to Barbosa's 34, Melisano is the younger, presumably fresher fighter, and Barbosa's two UFC losses both came in fights she couldn't finish early — exactly the kind of extended, grinding pace a five-years-younger opponent is built to exploit if the fight goes long. Melisano is also not without finishing tools of her own on the mat: one of her six wins came by submission, so a careless, over-committed Barbosa pass is not entirely risk-free. If the fight turns into a longer, more chaotic affair, Melisano's youth is a genuine, if modest, edge.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
The nightmare for Melisano is the Belbita template run back, made worse by her own tape: Barbosa closes distance, lands an early judo trip or body-lock throw, takes the back or side control, and finishes with a submission inside Round 1 — the round where every Barbosa stoppage has come, and the exact round Melisano was already finished in by Melissa Amaya's rear-naked choke on TUF 34. A UFC debutant on short notice facing a seven-time judo champion is, on paper, the single most dangerous mismatch on the card, and the opening five minutes are the most dangerous of her night.
Even if she survives the finish, Melisano can spend three rounds defending takedowns from a career judoka, losing position repeatedly and dropping a clear control-decision. As a total UFC newcomer with no measured Octagon output, it is unverified whether she can generate enough offense in scrambles or off her back to bank rounds — her only individually-documented professional result is a first-round submission loss, which does not inspire confidence in her mat return game against elite competition.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Melisano's whole night depends on takedown defense she has not had to prove at this level. Footwork, angles and a long jab to deny the clinch entry; make Barbosa lead and counter the entries at range where the reach advantage lives; stuff the trip and circle off the fence. She should use her length and elbows to bank rounds with activity rather than chase a firefight — she does not need to walk Barbosa down, she needs to be the busier, longer-limbed fighter in every neutral exchange and refuse to be dragged into the grappling.
If she is taken down, Melisano must stay busy and threaten back: wall-walk, scramble, and give Barbosa real problems on the way to top position — a marked improvement on the TUF 34 finish, where she was submitted before she could establish a defense. Then she leans on her youth and reach to push the pace into Round 3, where freshness against a 34-year-old is her best window to steal a fight that, on paper, started heavily against her. The clock is her ally; the longer it stays standing, the better her odds.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🧭Striker vs Grappler — the Core Puzzle
This is a clean striker-vs-grappler puzzle laid over a doubly data-poor problem: neither fighter is engine-computed. Barbosa is a roster row whose grappling cannot be measured — only respected — and Melisano is a total UFC newcomer with no Octagon statistical history at all, a short-notice replacement making her literal debut. The reads on both are inferences: Barbosa's from her verified fight log and judo/BJJ credentials, Melisano's from her 6-1 regional record, Muay Thai background, and single individually-documented result (a first-round submission loss on TUF 34). The matchup's whole question is whether an unmeasured, long-limbed striker with an already-exposed defensive-grappling hole can keep an unmeasured but elite judoka off her — on a compressed camp, in her first walk to the Octagon.
🎯The Archetype Tension
The database's Technical Striker vs Submission Artist baseline (59.4% over 352 fights) looks like a comfortable edge for a striker like Melisano — but it understates the danger, because Barbosa is not a guard-pulling submission artist. She is a judoka who takes opponents down with throws and trips, functionally a wrestler's path to the mat, and Technical Striker vs Wrestler is just 35.4% (48 fights), a heavy lean to the grappler. Barbosa lives between those two archetypes: she gets there like a wrestler and finishes like a submission artist. Blend the samples and the realistic expectation collapses from "comfortable striker" toward a clear, but not overwhelming, edge for the grappler — before Melisano's short-notice, debut-fight variables even apply.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Three things decide it. First, Barbosa's grappling against Melisano's estimated mid-50s takedown defense — the fulcrum: judo entries against a below-average defense should win her meaningful top time in a clear majority of exchanges, and Melisano's only known professional loss came by submission. Second, the reach-and-experience trade-off: Melisano's 70-inch reach and Muay Thai power are real equalizers at range, but she is trading them for zero Octagon reps and a compressed fight camp on short notice. Third, the two templates already on film — Barbosa wins it the way she submitted Belbita; Melisano's only individually-documented result is the mirror image, a first-round submission loss to Melissa Amaya on TUF 34 — which is exactly the outcome Barbosa's whole game plan is built to produce.
🏁Final Prediction
The single most likely individual outcome is Barbosa by Submission (30%) — the Belbita template, closing distance, landing the trip, and finishing inside Round 1 before Melisano's length and elbows can take over. Barbosa's control-decision (25%) is the second-most-likely path, banking position the way she beat Kareckaite and Gatto. But Melisano is live: her KO/TKO chance (22%) reflects real one-shot power and a 70-inch reach that can catch a shorter, entry-focused grappler on the way in, particularly if the fight opens standing. With Barbosa the significantly more accomplished grappler facing a total UFC newcomer on short notice, but Melisano carrying legitimate finishing tools of her own, this leans clearly — not overwhelmingly — toward Barbosa. The Witch by more than a coin flip, with Melisano's puncher's chance the biggest swing factor in the building.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
GOOD VALUE
SLIGHT VALUE
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Overweights early KO volatility – Underprices five-round wrestling cycles.
- • Undervalues damage economy – Low SApM differential drives optics on cards.
- • Big-cage bias – Space helps early, but fence/rides erode it late.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Dione Barbosa
Bank top position and control time
Rare — ground-and-pound follow-up only, no career KO wins
Judo trip into a first-round finish, her signature path
💥Outcome Distribution - Anna Melisano
Best lane via reach, elbows and intercepting counters
Requires extended range control in the Octagon
Low historical submission profile; ground game unproven
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Anna Melisano
- • Keep it standing: Use the 70-inch reach and Muay Thai elbows to out-strike a 34-year-old at range.
- • Survive the mat: Defend better than she did against Melissa Amaya's rear-naked choke on TUF 34 — the biggest skill she has to prove.
- • Win late: Youth and reach recover equity in Round 3 if she's still standing.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Dione Barbosa
- • Judo entries: Trip and advance against an estimated mid-50s takedown defense.
- • Early submission: Every career finish is a Round-1 submission (the Belbita template).
- • Control the cards: When the finish misses, grind top position for the decision.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
A moderate lean on the grappler — favoring a fighter the database cannot measure over a total UFC newcomer, on pedigree, matchup logic and short-notice variables
✅Supporting Factors
- • One clear fulcrum — grappling — and Barbosa owns it by pedigree (7x judo champ, BJJ black belt)
- • Attacks Melisano's only proven weakness: a first-round rear-naked choke loss on TUF 34
- • Cage and camp edge: Barbosa's sixth UFC walk vs Melisano's short-notice debut
- • Melisano's striking is unmeasured at UFC level — real reach and power, but completely unproven against this caliber of grappler
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Barbosa is a partial data void herself — a 58/42 line built on two data-poor fighters is fragile
- • She is older (34 vs 29) and tends to coast to the cards if she doesn't finish early
- • Melisano's 70-inch reach and Muay Thai power are real, verifiable tools that could catch Barbosa on the way in
🏁Executive Summary
Across 100 simulations two stories recur. In roughly 58, Dione Barbosa's grappling decides the night — most often (30) by closing distance, landing the judo trip against an estimated mid-50s takedown defense, and finishing by submission inside Round 1, echoing both her own Belbita finish and Melisano's own TUF 34 loss; less often (25) by grinding a control-decision the way she beat Kareckaite and Gatto. She is the more accomplished grappler whose best skill maps onto her opponent's only proven weakness. In the other 42, Anna Melisano's reach and Muay Thai power carry the night — most often (22) by catching Barbosa on the way in with length and elbows before the takedown lands, occasionally (18) by out-working her at range across three rounds, and rarely (2) by finding a submission of her own.
Prediction: Dione Barbosa by Submission is the single most likely individual outcome (30%) — the fastest, safest path given Melisano's exposed ground defense — but her combined win equity is higher still (58%), split between the early finish and a control-decision (25%) that avoids the striking exchanges altogether. This is not a coin flip: Barbosa is the significantly more experienced, more accomplished grappler facing a short-notice UFC debutant, but Melisano's verified reach and finishing power keep this from being a lock. A clear, not overwhelming, lean on the grappler.