UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman — Oklahoma City

UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman Poster - UFC Fight Analytics
Saturday, July 18, 2026
Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, United States
Paycom Center
completed12 Fights🏆 0 Title Fights
Main Card: Paramount+
Prelims: Paramount+
Start Time: 6:00 PM ET
Main Card Start Time by Timezone
Times are estimated; prelims start roughly two hours earlier. Subject to change.
CT (Local)
Oklahoma City (CT)
Main Card
5:00 PM
ET
Eastern US/Canada
Main Card
6:00 PM
PT
Pacific US/Canada
Main Card
3:00 PM
BST
United Kingdom / Ireland
Main Card
11:00 PM
CEST
Central Europe
Main Card
12:00 AM (Sun)
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Oklahoma City: Full Card Analytics & Predictions

UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman — Paycom Center, Oklahoma City — July 18, 2026

The UFC lands in Oklahoma City with a heavyweight-stakes middleweight headliner: former middleweight kingpin Dricus Du Plessis (23-3) faces former welterweight champion Kamaru Usman (21-4), who steps up to 185 pounds. Du Plessis brings unorthodox pressure, relentless volume and championship cardio; Usman counters with elite wrestling, sharp boxing and elite fight IQ.

The Paramount+ card runs deep — Brad Tavares vs. Marc-André Barriault, and Jared Cannonier vs. Christian Leroy Duncan headline a stacked undercard. AI-powered analytics cover every bout with best available odds and full card breakdowns.

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What is UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman?

UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman is an MMA event on July 18, 2026, at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. The main event pits Dricus Du Plessis (23-3) against Kamaru Usman (21-4) — a clash of unorthodox pressure-fighting against elite wrestling and boxing. The card airs on Paramount+ (main card listed at 6:00 PM ET). Highlights include Tavares vs. Barriault, Cannonier vs. Leroy-Duncan, and McMillen vs. Montes.

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What are the predictions for Dricus Du Plessis vs. Kamaru Usman?

Du Plessis vs. Usman is a high-level chess match: Du Plessis layers awkward, high-volume offense and grinding cardio, while Usman's wrestling, top control and boxing can dictate where the fight happens. Size and output at middleweight matter as much as Usman's championship pedigree. Every fight on the card below includes AI-generated win probabilities, best available odds, and detailed breakdowns to support informed analysis.

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How to watch UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman and what time does it start?

UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman takes place Saturday, July 18, 2026. Main card at 6:00 PM ET (5:00 PM CT / 3:00 PM PT) on Paramount+. Prelims start roughly two hours earlier, also on Paramount+. Paycom Center in Oklahoma City hosts the action.

Main Event — Middleweight

Du Plessis vs. Usman

Dricus Du Plessis (23-3) meets Kamaru Usman (21-4) at 185 pounds — unorthodox pressure and volume against elite wrestling, boxing and fight IQ. A genuine stylistic puzzle with divisional implications.

Co-Main — Middleweight

Tavares vs. Barriault

Veteran Brad Tavares (21-12) brings polished kickboxing and durability; Marc-André Barriault (17-11) counters with pressure and power. A grizzled middleweight test of timing vs. aggression.

Undercard Spotlight

Cannonier vs. Duncan

Jared Cannonier (18-9) tests rising Christian Leroy Duncan (14-2) at middleweight in a veteran-power-vs-young-volume clash.

📊Analysis Reliability Framework

Our analytical model considers UFC experience as one of several factors for optimal predictions. While we can analyze any fight, fighters with 5+ UFC bouts provide more comprehensive data for our statistical modeling. This doesn't diminish the quality of our analysis for newer fighters - it's simply one criterion we factor into our confidence assessments.

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High Risk (**)

<3 UFC Bouts

Limited UFC data available. Analysis relies more heavily on external sources and pre-UFC performance patterns.

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Moderate Risk (*)

3-4 UFC Bouts

Meaningful UFC sample size with good analytical foundation. Reliable insights with solid confidence levels.

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Optimal Data

5+ UFC Bouts

Comprehensive statistical foundation enabling highest confidence analysis and predictive accuracy.

Note: All fights receive thorough analysis regardless of UFC experience levels. This framework simply helps calibrate confidence in our predictions.

UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman Fights, Analytics & Predictions

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We display the best available odds for each fighter to maximize value. Preference is given to BetOnline when available; otherwise, we select the highest‑value line and show the sportsbook and implied probability (I.P %).

🏆 Main eventEstablished UFC sample (5+ bouts each)
Dricus Du Plessis

Dricus Du Plessis

23-3-0

Middleweight
5 Rounds

Model estimate

65%VS35%

Market Odds

……

Model win probability vs reference market odds

Kamaru Usman

Kamaru Usman

21-4-0

Model forecast pending. A current matchup estimate is required before publishing win probabilities, fair odds or expected value. No betting edge is established for this preview.

Uncertainty & price details

A current matchup estimate is required before publishing win probabilities, fair odds or expected value. No betting edge is established for this preview.

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

View fight preview
⭐ Co-MainEstablished UFC sample (5+ bouts each)
Brad Tavares

Brad Tavares

21-12-0

Middleweight
3 Rounds

Model estimate

56%VS44%

Market Odds

……

Model win probability vs reference market odds

Marc-André Barriault

Marc-André Barriault

17-11-0

Model forecast pending. A current matchup estimate is required before publishing win probabilities, fair odds or expected value. No betting edge is established for this preview.

Uncertainty & price details

A current matchup estimate is required before publishing win probabilities, fair odds or expected value. No betting edge is established for this preview.

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

View fight preview
Established UFC sample (5+ bouts each)
Jared Cannonier

Jared Cannonier

18-9-0

Middleweight
3 Rounds

Model estimate

42%VS58%

Market Odds

……

Model win probability vs reference market odds

Christian Leroy Duncan

Christian Leroy Duncan

14-2-0

Model forecast pending. A current matchup estimate is required before publishing win probabilities, fair odds or expected value. No betting edge is established for this preview.

Uncertainty & price details

A current matchup estimate is required before publishing win probabilities, fair odds or expected value. No betting edge is established for this preview.

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

View fight preview
Limited UFC sample (<3 bouts)
Tommy McMillen

Tommy McMillen

10-0-0

Featherweight
3 Rounds

Model estimate

62%VS38%

Market Odds

……

Model win probability vs reference market odds

Alberto Montes

Alberto Montes

11-1-0

Model forecast pending. A current matchup estimate is required before publishing win probabilities, fair odds or expected value. No betting edge is established for this preview.

Uncertainty & price details

A current matchup estimate is required before publishing win probabilities, fair odds or expected value. No betting edge is established for this preview.

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

View fight preview
Developing UFC sample (3–4 bouts)
Tabatha Ricci

Tabatha Ricci

12-4-0

Women's Strawweight
3 Rounds

Model estimate

46%VS54%

Market Odds

……

Model win probability vs reference market odds

Fatima Kline

Fatima Kline

9-1-0

Model forecast pending. A current matchup estimate is required before publishing win probabilities, fair odds or expected value. No betting edge is established for this preview.

Uncertainty & price details

A current matchup estimate is required before publishing win probabilities, fair odds or expected value. No betting edge is established for this preview.

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

View fight preview
Limited UFC sample (<3 bouts)
Alvin Hines

Alvin Hines

7-1-0

Heavyweight
3 Rounds

Model estimate

57%VS43%

Market Odds

……

Model win probability vs reference market odds

RJ Harris

RJ Harris

“The Hammer”

5-0-0

Model forecast pending. A current matchup estimate is required before publishing win probabilities, fair odds or expected value. No betting edge is established for this preview.

Uncertainty & price details

A current matchup estimate is required before publishing win probabilities, fair odds or expected value. No betting edge is established for this preview.

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

View fight preview
Developing UFC sample (3–4 bouts)
Dione Barbosa

Dione Barbosa

9-4-0

Women's Flyweight
3 Rounds

Model estimate

54%VS46%

Market Odds

……

Model win probability vs reference market odds

Anna Melisano

Anna Melisano

“Bandana”

6-1-0

Model forecast pending. A current matchup estimate is required before publishing win probabilities, fair odds or expected value. No betting edge is established for this preview.

Uncertainty & price details

A current matchup estimate is required before publishing win probabilities, fair odds or expected value. No betting edge is established for this preview.

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

View fight preview
Limited UFC sample (<3 bouts)
Chase Hooper

Chase Hooper

16-5-1

Lightweight
3 Rounds

Model estimate

65%VS35%

Market Odds

……

Model win probability vs reference market odds

Mitch Ramirez

Mitch Ramirez

8-3-0

Model forecast pending. A current matchup estimate is required before publishing win probabilities, fair odds or expected value. No betting edge is established for this preview.

Uncertainty & price details

A current matchup estimate is required before publishing win probabilities, fair odds or expected value. No betting edge is established for this preview.

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

View fight preview
Limited UFC sample (<3 bouts)
Felipe Franco

Felipe Franco

10-2-0

Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds

Model estimate

55%VS45%

Market Odds

……

Model win probability vs reference market odds

Levi Rodrigues Jr.

Levi Rodrigues Jr.

5-0-0

Model forecast pending. A current matchup estimate is required before publishing win probabilities, fair odds or expected value. No betting edge is established for this preview.

Uncertainty & price details

A current matchup estimate is required before publishing win probabilities, fair odds or expected value. No betting edge is established for this preview.

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

View fight preview
Limited UFC sample (<3 bouts)
Alden Coria

Alden Coria

12-3-0

Flyweight
3 Rounds

Model estimate

72%VS28%

Market Odds

……

Model win probability vs reference market odds

Stewart Nicoll

Stewart Nicoll

8-3-0

Model forecast pending. A current matchup estimate is required before publishing win probabilities, fair odds or expected value. No betting edge is established for this preview.

Uncertainty & price details

A current matchup estimate is required before publishing win probabilities, fair odds or expected value. No betting edge is established for this preview.

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

View fight preview
Limited UFC sample (<3 bouts)
Jose Delgado

Jose Delgado

11-2-0

Featherweight
3 Rounds

Model estimate

54%VS46%

Market Odds

……

Model win probability vs reference market odds

Austin Bashi

Austin Bashi

14-1-0

Model forecast pending. A current matchup estimate is required before publishing win probabilities, fair odds or expected value. No betting edge is established for this preview.

Uncertainty & price details

A current matchup estimate is required before publishing win probabilities, fair odds or expected value. No betting edge is established for this preview.

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

View fight preview
Limited UFC sample (<3 bouts)
Seok Hyeon Ko

Seok Hyeon Ko

13-2-0

Welterweight
3 Rounds

Model estimate

62%VS38%

Market Odds

……

Model win probability vs reference market odds

Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani

Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani

10-2-0

Model forecast pending. A current matchup estimate is required before publishing win probabilities, fair odds or expected value. No betting edge is established for this preview.

Uncertainty & price details

A current matchup estimate is required before publishing win probabilities, fair odds or expected value. No betting edge is established for this preview.

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

View fight preview

Model Probabilities vs Market Odds Summary

FightFighter AModel Prob AMarket Odds AImplied Prob AFighter BModel Prob BMarket Odds BImplied Prob BValue
Plessis vs Usman🟢Dricus Du Plessis65%N/A—Kamaru Usman35%N/A—
Plessis +65.0%Champion-level pressure & cardio vs WW great's wrestling at 185
Tavares vs Barriault🟢Brad Tavares56%N/A—Marc-André Barriault44%N/A—
Tavares +56.0%Veteran volume & range vs pressure-aggression
Cannonier vs Duncan🟢Jared Cannonier42%N/A—Christian Leroy Duncan58%N/A—
Duncan +58.0%Rising youth & output vs aging one-shot power
Ricci vs Kline🟡Tabatha Ricci46%N/A—Fatima Kline54%N/A—
Kline +54.0%Length & output vs grappling control & grind
Barbosa vs Melisano🟡Dione Barbosa54%N/A—Anna Melisano46%N/A—
Barbosa +54.0%Judo/BJJ grappling vs measured distance striking

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