Anthony Wint vs Lucas Armand – UFC 332: Silva vs. Wang Fight Analytics & Prediction

PRELIM · HEAVYWEIGHT · 3 ROUNDSUFC 332: Silva vs. Wang

Anthony Wint

8W0L

Explosive Grappler

Lucas Armand

6W0L

Power Striker

One-bout UFC sample meets a debutant

HeavyweightDelta Center, Salt Lake City, UtahOctober 3, 2026Standard 30ft Octagon · prelim heavyweight

Fight overview

The fight in 30 seconds

Wint wants to win the first entry and turn it into position, the way he submitted Terrance Chatman in the first round of his UFC debut. Armand, unbeaten and debuting off a run of knockouts, has to meet those level changes with strikes, keep his balance and drag Wint into rounds he has never seen in the Octagon. Whoever wins that first grappling sequence sets the terms.

Paths that change the fight

Anthony WintWin the first entry as he did against Chatman: 2.97 takedowns and 2.97 submission attempts per fifteen, turning position into a finish.
Lucas ArmandDefend the first contact with balance, regain space, and make Wint work through a second phase.

What limits this estimate · Analyst conviction: 5/10

Armand is roughly 30 pounds heavier and five inches taller, with five straight TKO wins.
Wint's third pro fight in 54 days, and he has been past five minutes only three times.

Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

Anthony Wint

Freshness unverified

Model win probability: 76%
Fair odds: -317

Reference quote: -550 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds: 1.32

Lucas Armand

Freshness unverified

Model win probability: 24%
Fair odds: +317

Reference quote: +415 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds: 4.17

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Sources and data limitations

Career statistics and fight results through September 2026. Finish-curve splits, simulation buckets, probabilities and fair prices are MMA Analytics model outputs.

Model methodology

Read the evidence Inspect prices and assumptions

The Frame

What this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it

The Analyst's Take

Wint is the clear favourite because of who he has beaten and how quickly: his recent wins have all ended in the first round, the latest an arm-triangle of Terrance Chatman in his UFC debut. Armand is unbeaten and a regional heavyweight champion, but his record was built against modest opposition and his last stoppage took until the fourth round. His live path is size and power — he is roughly 30 pounds heavier and noticeably taller — and it grows the longer he keeps his balance against a former college linebacker's entries. Wint is back on a short turnaround and Armand debuts on short notice, and the model sits a little below the market's price on the favourite.

Anthony Wint

Attribute

Lucas Armand

Age

+1 year Wint30

5' 11"

Height

+5" Armand6' 4"

78"

Reach

—

42"

Leg Reach

—

Orthodox

Stance

—

8-0-0

Pro Record

6-0-0

1-0

UFC Record

Debut

Grappling pressure

Fighting Style

Freestyle · 5 TKO wins

Wint stands 5'11" with a 78-inch reach at 31. Armand, 30, is five inches taller at 6'4", roughly 30 pounds heavier, and makes his UFC debut on short notice.

Venue Factor
Three heavyweight rounds between a one-fight UFC winner and a debutant — the useful question is how each responds when the first attack fails. Wint's debut was a first-round submission; Armand arrives 6-0 with five TKO wins.

The Fighters

Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage

Anthony Wint

Pro Record

8-0-0

UFC Record

1-0 (one UFC bout)

Streak

Win — submission of Terrance Chatman (Aug 2026)

Finish Rate

5 KO/TKO and 2 submission wins

Avg Fight Time

4:29 (1 UFC bout)

Chin · UnprovenSOS · One-fight UFCFinisher

Wint is 8-0 with one UFC fight, a first-round submission of Terrance Chatman in August 2026. Five of his eight pro wins ended in round one, three of them inside 40 seconds.

Lucas Armand

Pro Record

6-0-0

UFC Record

0 completed UFC bouts

Streak

Six straight — TKO of Cameron Graham (Mar 2026)

Finish Rate

5 of 6 wins by KO/TKO

Avg Fight Time

UFC debut

Chin · UnprovenSOS · DebutKnockout striker

Armand makes his UFC debut undefeated at 6-0: a unanimous decision in his pro debut, then five straight TKO wins — two in round one, two in round two and a fourth-round stoppage of Cameron Graham in March 2026.

Anthony Wint

0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Knockdown Exchange

Knockdowns dealt vs absorbed.

Lucas Armand

— dealt · — absorbed

Anthony Wintsignature weapons

PunchesFive KO/TKO wins, three of them inside 40 seconds

×5

ChokesArm-triangle of Terrance Chatman in his UFC debut and an earlier rear-naked choke

×2

Lucas Armandsignature weapons

StrikesFive TKO wins in six pro fights, two inside the first round

×5

Late finishingFourth-round TKO of Cameron Graham (Mar 2026) — he has finished past the third round

×1

Anthony Wint

Terrance Chatman

Submission — Arm-Triangle

Opponent context: prospect

UFC Fight Night — Aug 2026

Pattern

Wint’s only UFC result is a first-round submission of Terrance Chatman.

Lucas Armand

Cameron Graham

TKO — Strikes

War at the Wex 8 — Mar 2026

Braxton Smith

TKO — Strikes

War at the Wex 7 — Nov 2025

Lawrence Phillips

TKO

2 Piece Promotions 5 — Jun 2025

Marcus Maulding

TKO — Strikes

WXC 97 — May 2025

Chris Cameron

TKO — Retirement

War at the Wex 2 — Feb 2025

Pattern

Five straight TKO wins on the regional scene since a decision in his pro debut; the latest went into a fourth round before he stopped Cameron Graham.

Anthony Wint

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Lucas Armand

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Critical Insight
Wint’s ledger is 5 KO/TKO, 2 submissions, and 1 decision across 8 wins — five of them inside the first round. Armand’s is 5 TKO and 1 decision across 6, with stoppages in rounds one, two and four and no submission wins.

Opposition strength (no shared opponents)

Without a reliable shared-opponent table, compare who each fighter has been tested against using SOS tier, UFC sample size, and recent elite-tier form — not raw records alone.

Factor	Anthony	Lucas
Strength of schedule (SOS tier)	One-fight UFC — Last three wins all first-round finishes, including the Contender Series and his UFC debut.	Debut — War at the Wex heavyweight champion with two defences; pro since November 2024, against opponents with a combined record of about 29-52.
UFC sample	1-0 (one UFC bout)	0 completed UFC bouts
Recent ranked / elite touches (last 5)	0 elite · 0 veteran tier	0 elite · 0 veteran tier
Form-window difficulty edge: Fighter A (1 vs 0 tier points in listed bouts).
Last three opponents	Terrance Chatman	Cameron Graham, Braxton Smith, Lawrence Phillips

The Numbers

Composites, division ranks and round-by-round evidence

Composite scores summarize selected statistics on a 0–100 scale. They are not win probabilities. Compare the underlying metrics, opponent quality and UFC experience before interpreting a score difference as a matchup advantage.

Metric	Anthony	Lucas
Strikes landed / min	3.56	—
Strikes absorbed / min	0.20	—
TD Defence	100% (5:03 sample)	—
Takedowns / 15	2.97	—
Pro finish rate	7 of 8 wins	5 of 6 wins
Champ RoundsChamp RoundsEvidence from rounds 4-5 — only fighters with five-round experience have data here.	3-round bout	3-round bout

Archetype Base Rate

Grappling Finisher 76%24% Undefeated Debutant

MMA Analytics model lean · Wint 76%, conviction 5/10. The edge rests on the opposition gap and a grappling path Armand has yet to be tested against; his size and power keep him near 1 in 4.

Heavyweight

· 55 fighters

Stat	Anthony	Anthony rank	Div avg	Lucas rank	Lucas
SLpMSLpMSignificant Strikes Landed per Minute — offensive striking volume. Higher = busier striker.	3.56	—	—	—	—
Str AccStr AccStriking Accuracy — share of significant strikes thrown that land. Higher = more precise.	67%	—	—	—	—
Str DefStr DefStriking Defense — share of opponents' significant strikes that do NOT land. Higher = harder to hit.	83%	—	—	—	—
SApMSApMSignificant Strikes Absorbed per Minute — how much a fighter gets hit. Lower = better.	0.20	—	—	—	—
TD/15TD/15Takedowns Landed per 15 minutes — wrestling pressure / takedown engine.	2.97	—	—	—	—
TD DefTD DefTakedown Defense — share of opponents' takedown attempts stuffed.	100%	—	—	—	—
Sub/15Sub/15Submission Attempts per 15 minutes — how actively a fighter hunts the finish on the mat.	2.97	—	—	—	—
KD/15	0	—	—	—	—

Statistical Verdict
Wint's rates cover 5:03 of cage time — his Contender Series win and one UFC fight. Armand makes his Octagon debut.

Significant Strikes Landed per Round

⚠ R1: single-fight sample for Anthony Wint

Control Time per Round (sec)

Anthony Wint

One UFC bout: a first-round arm-triangle submission of Terrance Chatman at 4:29.
In that round he landed 5 of 9 significant strikes, completed 1 of 3 takedowns, attempted one submission and held 2:42 of control.
Chatman landed one significant strike on him.
Rounds two and three are new territory for him in the Octagon.

Lucas Armand

UFC debut, undefeated at 6-0.
Five TKO wins in six pro fights, two of them in round one.
He has gone past round three once, stopping Cameron Graham in the fourth.
Round one doubles as his first minutes in the Octagon.

Critical Insight
Wint's one UFC round was a grappling round — 2:42 of control out of 4:29 before the finish. The useful question is what happens when his first attack fails, and Armand is the one fighter here who has been past round three.

Strike targeting

Anthony

40%

20%

40%

Head

40%

Body

20%

Legs

40%

Head hunting vs body work vs leg attack — the shape of the damage.

Striking range — distance, clinch and ground

AnthonyLucas

80%Distance—

0%Clinch—

20%Ground—

Share of significant strikes landed at distance, in the clinch and on the ground across each fighter's UFC rounds, weighted by strike volume.

The Story of the Fight

Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath

Where the fight lives

Who owns each phase — and by how much

Open SpaceEven

Armand is five inches taller and roughly 30 pounds heavier with five straight TKO wins; Wint has five KO/TKO wins of his own. Neither has a UFC striking sample worth ranking.

Pocket / ExchangesAnthony owns it

Wint's last three wins came inside the first round, two of them inside 40 seconds. Armand's power is his main path, so the edge here is narrow.

ClinchAnthony owns it

Former Division I linebacker; 1 of 3 takedowns and 2:42 of control in his UFC round. Armand's game is standing power.

GroundAnthony owns it

Finished Chatman with an arm-triangle after holding position; Armand has no pro submission wins.

Path to Victory

Anthony Wint

Win the first entry as he did against Chatman: 2.97 takedowns and 2.97 submission attempts per fifteen, turning position into a finish.

Why they win

Striking workload

3.56 SLpM at 67% accuracy across his Contender Series win and UFC debut.

Grappling entries

Former Division I linebacker: 2.97 takedowns and 2.97 submission attempts per fifteen, with 100% takedown defence, over 5:03 of cage time.

Reach

78-inch reach and 42-inch leg reach, age 31 — Armand is taller at 6'4".

Opposition

8-0, and his last three wins were first-round finishes — 0:37, 0:34 on the Contender Series and 4:29 in the UFC.

Model shares

40 KO/TKO points, 18 submission and 18 decision — 58 of his 76 points are finishes.

The gameplan

1
First entry
Establish position early. Five of his eight wins, including the last four, ended in round one.
2
Add offence
2.97 submission attempts only matter if the position produces offence.
3
Second phase
Have a second phase ready — the Chatman fight never needed one.
4
Respect the power
Armand’s main path is the knockout — enter behind strikes, not straight in.
5
Favourite's model
76%, conviction 5/10. Knockouts lead at 40 points; submission and decision are 18 each.

Path to Victory

Lucas Armand

Defend the first contact with balance, regain space, and make Wint work through a second phase.

Why they win

No UFC film

Wint has no Octagon tape of Armand to prepare from, and the bout came together on short notice.

Size

Roughly 30 pounds heavier and five inches taller.

Model knockout share

17 of his 24 points sit in KO/TKO — heavyweight power is his main path.

Late rounds

He has fought into a fourth round; Wint has been past five minutes only three times, and his one decision was split.

Undefeated record

6-0 entering the UFC, with a regional heavyweight title and two defences.

The gameplan

1
Survive the first sequence
Balance first. Wint’s debut was a first-round submission of Chatman.
2
Regain space
Make Wint work into rounds two and three, where he has never been in the UFC.
3
Punish the entry
Meet level changes with strikes — the knockout is his main model path.
4
Knockout is the route
17 of his 24 points, against 6 decision points and 1 submission point.
5
Carry the unbeaten run
6-0 coming in; the debut is where the record gets tested.

Danger Zone

How Anthony Wint loses

Armand survives the first grappling sequence and forces a striking test the debut never established.
The 100% takedown defence and 0.20 absorption do not repeat against a heavier man.
A third pro fight in 54 days shows up once the fight passes the first round.

Danger Zone

How Lucas Armand loses

The first entry becomes position and a finish, the way the Chatman fight ended.
A debutant has little Octagon experience to fall back on once that happens.
The 17-point knockout share never gets a chance to show up.

Matchup interpretation

The opposition gap

Wint’s last three wins were first-round finishes, including a 6-2 opponent on the Contender Series and Terrance Chatman in the UFC. Armand’s opponents have a combined record of about 29-52, his best win came over a former UFC heavyweight returning from roughly two and a half years out, and he needed until 0:16 of round four to stop Cameron Graham.

Counterargument

What would change the estimate

Tape of Armand stuffing level changes would move him toward 30%; seeing him taken down or hurt on the regional scene would push Wint toward 80%. Weigh-in or conditioning trouble, or the line moving past −650 across books, would also shift the number.

3 rounds

Distance and repeatability

Three heavyweight rounds. Five of Wint’s eight wins, including his last four, ended in round one, and he has been past five minutes only three times.

model % the fight ends inside 1.5 rounds

Card context

Schedule vs. size

Wint, 31, makes his third pro fight in 54 days; Armand, 30, takes the bout on short notice roughly 30 pounds heavier. The model still makes Wint a clear favourite, conviction 5/10.

Wint model win %

Method split

Knockout equity

Method shares: Wint 40 KO, 18 submission, 18 decision. Armand 17 KO, 6 decision, 1 submission — power is nearly his whole case.

Armand KO/TKO share of all outcomes

Finish Threat by Round

Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.

The Verdict

One hundred simulated fights, the betting market, and our conviction

If you only read 4 things

Wint's last three wins were all first-round finishes — 0:37, 0:34 against a 6-2 opponent on the Contender Series, and the 4:29 arm-triangle of Terrance Chatman in the UFC. Armand's opponents have a combined record of about 29-52.

Armand’s reversal is surviving the first grappling sequence and turning it into a heavyweight striking fight, where he carries roughly 30 pounds and five inches on Wint.

Model: Wint 76%, Armand 24%, conviction 5/10. Fair price Wint −317 / Armand +317 against BetOnline's Wint −550 / Armand +415.

BetOnline makes Wint an 81–19 favourite at −550 after opening near −390; the model sits about five points lower at 76–24, so Armand +415 is only a thin value lean. The clearer disagreement is the length of the fight: the model has it lasting past the midpoint of round two 45% of the time, which makes Over 1.5 rounds at +161 (38.3% implied) the value side and Under 1.5 at −185 one to avoid.

Model outcomes per 100 fights

Each square represents one percentage point of the model distribution, not an observed fight. This visualization does not measure model accuracy or reduce uncertainty in the inputs.

Wint Decision — 18%Wint KO/TKO — 40%Wint Submission — 18%Armand KO/TKO — 17%Armand Decision — 6%Armand Submission — 1%

Each square = 1 simulated fight. Anthony Wint gold · Lucas Armand orange · full color = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

Opposition gap

Wint's last three wins were first-round finishes, one in the UFC; Armand's opponents have a combined record of about 29-52.

Step-ups

Wint produced his fastest finishes when the opposition improved. Armand's only losses were two amateur decisions in 2023, against the two unbeaten opponents he has faced.

Grappling

2:42 of control and a submission in Wint's one UFC round; Armand has no pro submission wins.

Size and distance

Armand is roughly 30 pounds heavier and has fought into a fourth round; Wint has been past five minutes only three times.

Schedule

This is Wint's third pro fight in 54 days, against a debutant taking the bout on short notice.

Fight Scripts

of simulations

Wint knockout

He ends it early, standing or after an entry — his last four wins all ended in round one. Largest single bucket.

Scripted outcomes for Anthony Wint vs Lucas Armand — how each version of this fight unfolds.

Anthony Wint win probability

40%

18%

KO/TKODECSUB

Forty points and the largest bucket. His last four wins all ended in round one, and 38 of his 58 finishing points sit in the opening five minutes.
Eighteen points. If Armand survives the early entries, takedowns and control should still bank rounds — though his one previous decision was a split.
Eighteen points. The Chatman path: a former Division I linebacker's entries, 2:42 of control and an arm-triangle in his one UFC round, against a man with no pro submission wins.

Lucas Armand win probability

17%

KO/TKODECSUB

Seventeen points and nearly his whole case. Roughly 30 pounds heavier with five straight TKO wins, he needs one clean shot as Wint comes in.
Six points. He has fought into a fourth round, but winning fifteen minutes means stuffing the level changes that decide this matchup.
One point. He has no pro submission wins; this is a scramble after a failed entry.

Projected Scorecards

How the model scores each round

Anthony

Even

29-28 Wint

Entries and control bank the first two rounds

Inside the 18-point decision bucket

30-27 Wint

Position produces offence in all three rounds

Inside the same 18-point decision bucket

29-28 Armand

He stuffs the early entries and takes two rounds on size

Inside the 6-point decision bucket

Model and price

Anthony Wint

Freshness unverified

Model win probability: 76%
Fair odds: -317

Reference quote: -550 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds: 1.32

Estimated EV: -10.2%
Edge vs no-vig market: -5.3 pp

Lucas Armand

Freshness unverified

Model win probability: 24%
Fair odds: +317

Reference quote: +415 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds: 4.17

Estimated EV: +23.6%
Edge vs no-vig market: +5.3 pp

EV uses the displayed price: probability × decimal odds − 1. Edge is a percentage-point difference from a proportionally de-vigged, same-book pair. A dash means that comparison is unavailable.

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Fair odds are the break-even price under this estimate, not a recommended entry price. Model uncertainty can erase a small edge.

What price would change the calculation? · Anthony Wint

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Assumed win probability (%)Your target estimated EV (%)

Required decimal price: 1.32 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

What price would change the calculation? · Lucas Armand

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Assumed win probability (%)Your target estimated EV (%)

Required decimal price: 4.17 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

Analyst prop read

1 value lean0 fair1 avoid

Over 1.5 rounds+161+6.7pp

Full prop table (2)Expand for odds, model %, implied % and analyst verdict per prop

Green rows mark props where our analysis sees value at the recorded BetOnline price. Red rows are overpriced relative to the model share. These are snapshots — verify the line is still available before acting.

Prop probabilities, break-even prices and analyst verdict at the recorded quote.
Prop	Reference quote	Implied %	Model %	Fair odds	Difference (pp)	Estimated EV	Our read
Over 1.5 rounds	+161BetOnline	38.3%	45%	+1222.22 decimal	+6.7	+17.5%	Value lean
Under 1.5 rounds	-185BetOnline	64.9%	55%	-1221.82 decimal	-9.9	-15.3%	Avoid / overpriced

Prop differences use raw implied probability, including the bookmaker margin. They are not the no-vig moneyline edge above.

Analyst price notes

Written against the prices of September 30.

The value on this board is the total: Over 1.5 rounds at +161 implies 38.3% against a 45% model share (fair +122), and about two-thirds of that share is still Wint winning — later in the fight or on the cards — so the bet does not need an upset. Under 1.5 rounds at −185 (64.9% implied against 55%, fair −122) is the side to avoid; Wint's run of round-one finishes is real, but the price asks for a finish before the midpoint of round two almost two times in three against a man roughly 30 pounds heavier who has fought into a fourth round. On the moneyline, Armand at +415 implies 19.4% against a 24% model share (fair +317), a thin value lean that rests on heavyweight power and the size gap rather than any stylistic edge. Wint at −550 sits past the model's fair −317 and just over the Avoid line; after opening near −390, the favourite's price has moved further than the matchup evidence supports.

Conviction

5/10

Editorial confidence in the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

Wint 76%, conviction 5/10. The opposition gap and the grappling path are clear; heavyweight power and a short turnaround keep it from going higher. Lean: Anthony Wint.

What backs the lean

Last three wins all first-round finishes, the latest a UFC arm-triangle of Terrance Chatman.
His fastest finishes came as the opposition improved; Armand's opponents total about 29-52.
Former Division I linebacker with 2:42 of control in his UFC round; Armand has no pro submission wins.

What limits it

Armand is roughly 30 pounds heavier and five inches taller, with five straight TKO wins.
Wint's third pro fight in 54 days, and he has been past five minutes only three times.
Heavyweight variance: 17 of Armand's 24 points are knockouts, and one clean shot is enough.

Final Assessment

Wint is the clear favourite. His recent wins have all ended in round one, his fastest finishes came as the opposition improved, and his UFC debut was a 4:29 arm-triangle of Terrance Chatman; Armand's unbeaten run came against opponents with a combined record of about 29-52, and his best win was over a former UFC heavyweight returning from a long layoff.

Model split is 76/24, conviction 5/10. Method shares: Wint 40 KO / 18 submission / 18 decision; Armand 17 KO / 6 decision / 1 submission. Fair price −317 / +317. BetOnline has Wint at −550 and Armand at +415, about 81–19 once the margin comes out, after opening near −390 / +280; the model sits about five points lower, partly a discount on the hype that follows an unbeaten record and an NFL background.

Armand's case is real but narrow: roughly 30 pounds heavier, five straight stoppages and a fourth-round finish on his record, against a favourite making his third pro fight in 54 days who has been past five minutes only three times. Heavyweight variance keeps him near 1 in 4.

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